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Title: Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3]
  1. Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France)
  2. Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris (France)
  3. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United Staes). Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Inst. of Geophysics and Planetary Physics
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Chaos (Woodbury, N. Y.)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Chaos (Woodbury, N. Y.); Journal Volume: 19; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1054-1500
American Institute of Physics (AIP)
Research Org:
Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; atmospheric flow, local predictability, multiple regimes, separatrix
OSTI Identifier: