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Sample records for weather forecast model

  1. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore ...

  2. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  3. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  4. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  5. Enhancing Cloud Radiative Processes and Radiation Efficiency in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

    SciTech Connect

    Iacono, Michael J.

    2015-03-09

    The objective of this research has been to evaluate and implement enhancements to the computational performance of the RRTMG radiative transfer option in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Efficiency is as essential as accuracy for effective numerical weather prediction, and radiative transfer is a relatively time-consuming component of dynamical models, taking up to 30-50 percent of the total model simulation time. To address this concern, this research has implemented and tested a version of RRTMG that utilizes graphics processing unit (GPU) technology (hereinafter RRTMGPU) to greatly improve its computational performance; thereby permitting either more frequent simulation of radiative effects or other model enhancements. During the early stages of this project the development of RRTMGPU was completed at AER under separate NASA funding to accelerate the code for use in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Goddard Earth Observing System GEOS-5 global model. It should be noted that this final report describes results related to the funded portion of the originally proposed work concerning the acceleration of RRTMG with GPUs in WRF. As a k-distribution model, RRTMG is especially well suited to this modification due to its relatively large internal pseudo-spectral (g-point) dimension that, when combined with the horizontal grid vector in the dynamical model, can take great advantage of the GPU capability. Thorough testing under several model configurations has been performed to ensure that RRTMGPU improves WRF model run time while having no significant impact on calculated radiative fluxes and heating rates or on dynamical model fields relative to the RRTMG radiation. The RRTMGPU codes have been provided to NCAR for possible application to the next public release of the WRF forecast model.

  6. Development of an Immersed Boundary Method to Resolve Complex Terrain in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lunquist, K A; Chow, F K; Lundquist, J K; Mirocha, J D

    2007-09-04

    simulations, on the other hand, are performed by numerical weather prediction (NWP) codes, which cannot handle the geometry of the urban landscape, but do provide a more complete representation of atmospheric physics. NWP codes typically use structured grids with terrain-following vertical coordinates, include a full suite of atmospheric physics parameterizations, and allow for dynamic synoptic scale lateral forcing through grid nesting. Terrain following grids are unsuitable for urban terrain, as steep terrain gradients cause extreme distortion of the computational cells. In this work, we introduce and develop an immersed boundary method (IBM) to allow the favorable properties of a numerical weather prediction code to be combined with the ability to handle complex terrain. IBM uses a non-conforming structured grid, and allows solid boundaries to pass through the computational cells. As the terrain passes through the mesh in an arbitrary manner, the main goal of the IBM is to apply the boundary condition on the interior of the domain as accurately as possible. With the implementation of the IBM, numerical weather prediction codes can be used to explicitly resolve urban terrain. Heterogeneous urban domains using the IBM can be nested into larger mesoscale domains using a terrain-following coordinate. The larger mesoscale domain provides lateral boundary conditions to the urban domain with the correct forcing, allowing seamless integration between mesoscale and urban scale models. Further discussion of the scope of this project is given by Lundquist et al. [2007]. The current paper describes the implementation of an IBM into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open source numerical weather prediction code. The WRF model solves the non-hydrostatic compressible Navier-Stokes equations, and employs an isobaric terrain-following vertical coordinate. Many types of IB methods have been developed by researchers; a comprehensive review can be found in Mittal

  7. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  8. Coupling WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics schemes to RRTMG radiation scheme in weather research forecasting model

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Bae, Soo Ya; Hong, Song -You; Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny

    2016-01-01

    A method to explicitly calculate the effective radius of hydrometeors in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme is designed to tackle the physical inconsistency in cloud properties between the microphysics and radiation processes. At each model time step, the calculated effective radii of hydrometeors from the WDM6 scheme are linked to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for GCMs (RRTMG) scheme to consider the cloud effects in radiative flux calculation. This coupling effect of cloud properties between the WDM6 and RRTMG algorithms is examined for a heavy rainfall event in Korea during 25–27 July 2011, and itmore » is compared to the results from the control simulation in which the effective radius is prescribed as a constant value. It is found that the derived radii of hydrometeors in the WDM6 scheme are generally larger than the prescribed values in the RRTMG scheme. Consequently, shortwave fluxes reaching the ground (SWDOWN) are increased over less cloudy regions, showing a better agreement with a satellite image. The overall distribution of the 24-hour accumulated rainfall is not affected but its amount is changed. In conclusion, a spurious rainfall peak over the Yellow Sea is alleviated, whereas the local maximum in the central part of the peninsula is increased.« less

  9. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  10. Implementation and assessment of turbine wake models in the Weather Research and Forecasting model for both mesoscale and large-eddy simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Singer, M; Mirocha, J; Lundquist, J; Cleve, J

    2010-03-03

    Flow dynamics in large wind projects are influenced by the turbines located within. The turbine wakes, regions characterized by lower wind speeds and higher levels of turbulence than the surrounding free stream flow, can extend several rotor diameters downstream, and may meander and widen with increasing distance from the turbine. Turbine wakes can also reduce the power generated by downstream turbines and accelerate fatigue and damage to turbine components. An improved understanding of wake formation and transport within wind parks is essential for maximizing power output and increasing turbine lifespan. Moreover, the influence of wakes from large wind projects on neighboring wind farms, agricultural activities, and local climate are all areas of concern that can likewise be addressed by wake modeling. This work describes the formulation and application of an actuator disk model for studying flow dynamics of both individual turbines and arrays of turbines within wind projects. The actuator disk model is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is an open-source atmospheric simulation code applicable to a wide range of scales, from mesoscale to large-eddy simulation. Preliminary results demonstrate the applicability of the actuator disk model within WRF to a moderately high-resolution large-eddy simulation study of a small array of turbines.

  11. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  12. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  13. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (? ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35 and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF models MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a ? gradient method whether using observed or modelled ? profiles.

  14. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed windmore » speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.« less

  15. A Case Study of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Applied to the Joint Urban 2003 Tracer Field Experiment. Part 1. Wind and Turbulence

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, Matthew A.; Brown, Michael J.; Halverson, Scot A.; Bieringer, Paul E.; Annunzio, Andrew; Bieberbach, George; Meech, Scott

    2015-09-25

    We found that numerical-weather-prediction models are often used to supply the mean wind and turbulence fields for atmospheric transport and dispersion plume models as they provide dense horizontally- and vertically-resolved geographic coverage in comparison to typically sparse monitoring networks. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run over the month-long period of the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign conducted in Oklahoma City and the simulated fields important to transport and dispersion models were compared to measurements from a number of sodars, tower-based sonic anemometers, and balloon soundings located in the greater metropolitan area. Time histories of computed wind speed, wind direction, turbulent kinetic energy (e), friction velocity (u* ), and reciprocal Obukhov length (1 / L) were compared to measurements over the 1-month field campaign. Vertical profiles of wind speed, potential temperature (θ ), and e were compared during short intensive operating periods. The WRF model was typically able to replicate the measured diurnal variation of the wind fields, but with an average absolute wind direction and speed difference of 35° and 1.9 m s-1 , respectively. Then, using the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) surface-layer scheme, the WRF model was found to generally underpredict surface-layer TKE but overpredict u* that was observed above a suburban region of Oklahoma City. The TKE-threshold method used by the WRF model’s MYJ surface-layer scheme to compute the boundary-layer height (h) consistently overestimated h derived from a θ gradient method whether using observed or modelled θ profiles.

  16. Weather

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Weather Weather We provide access to the latest meteorological observations, climatological information, and weather forecast products for the Los Alamos area. December 14, 2011 Snow vortex A snow vortex in Los Alamos. Contact Environmental Communication & Public Involvement P.O. Box 1663 MS M996 Los Alamos, NM 87545 (505) 667-0216 Email Meteorology is the science of the atmosphere and the variations in atmospheric conditions that produce weather. Monitoring the weather Meteorology is the

  17. Observations and simulations improve space weather models

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Observations improve space weather models Observations and simulations improve space weather models Researchers used data from the Van Allen Probes to improve a three-dimensional...

  18. Weather | Princeton Plasma Physics Lab

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Weather Princeton, New Jersey, weather forecast Click here for more extensive PPPL weather information.

  19. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  20. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  1. ASSIMILATION OF DOPPLER RADAR DATA INTO NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS

    SciTech Connect

    Chiswell, S.; Buckley, R.

    2009-01-15

    During the year 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) completed an eight fold increase in sampling capability for weather radars to 250 m resolution. This increase is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current NWS operational model domains utilize grid spacing an order of magnitude larger than the radar data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of radar reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution was investigated under a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) 'quick hit' grant to determine the impact of improved data resolution on model predictions with specific initial proof of concept application to daily Savannah River Site operations and emergency response. Development of software to process NWS radar reflectivity and radial velocity data was undertaken for assimilation of observations into numerical models. Data values within the radar data volume undergo automated quality control (QC) analysis routines developed in support of this project to eliminate empty/missing data points, decrease anomalous propagation values, and determine error thresholds by utilizing the calculated variances among data values. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) three dimensional variational data assimilation package (WRF-3DVAR) was used to incorporate the QC'ed radar data into input and boundary conditions. The lack of observational data in the vicinity of SRS available to NWS operational models signifies an important data void where radar observations can provide significant input. These observations greatly enhance the knowledge of storm structures and the environmental conditions which influence their development. As the increase in computational power and availability has made higher

  2. The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Lynch, Peter [Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Dublin, Belfield (Ireland)], E-mail: Peter.Lynch@ucd.ie

    2008-03-20

    Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

  3. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  4. Observations and simulations improve space weather models

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Observations improve space weather models Observations and simulations improve space weather models Researchers used data from the Van Allen Probes to improve a three-dimensional model created by Los Alamos scientists called DREAM3D. June 25, 2014 NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. NASA's Van Allen Probes sample the Earth's magnetosphere. The work demonstrated that DREAM3D accurately simulated the behavior of a complex and dynamic event in the radiation belt that was

  5. Weather

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    and the variations in atmospheric conditions that produce weather. The Weather Machine, LANL's meteorological monitoring program, supports Laboratory operations and...

  6. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    SciTech Connect

    Curry, Judith

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  7. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting Workshop 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the

  8. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  9. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  10. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  11. Coupling a Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Large-Eddy Simulation for Realistic Wind Plant Aerodynamics Simulations (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Draxl, C.; Churchfield, M.; Mirocha, J.; Lee, S.; Lundquist, J.; Michalakes, J.; Moriarty, P.; Purkayastha, A.; Sprague, M.; Vanderwende, B.

    2014-06-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are influenced by a combination of microscale and mesoscale phenomena. Incorporating mesoscale atmospheric forcing (e.g., diurnal cycles and frontal passages) into wind plant simulations can lead to a more accurate representation of microscale flows, aerodynamics, and wind turbine/plant performance. Our goal is to couple a numerical weather prediction model that can represent mesoscale flow [specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting model] with a microscale LES model (OpenFOAM) that can predict microscale turbulence and wake losses.

  12. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  13. Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

    SciTech Connect

    Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

    2009-12-01

    Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their ability to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  15. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  16. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  17. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Qian, Yun; Gustafson, William I.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ghan, Steven J.

    2009-02-14

    Radiative forcing induced by soot on snow is a major anthropogenic forcing affecting the global climate. However, it is uncertain how the soot-induced snow albedo perturbation affects regional snowpack and the hydrological cycle. In this study we simulated the deposition of soot aerosol on snow and investigated the resulting impact on snowpack and the surface water budget in the western United States. A yearlong simulation was performed using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-Chem) to determine an annual budget of soot deposition, followed by two regional climate simulations using WRF in meteorology-only mode, with and without the soot-induced snow albedo perturbations. The chemistry simulation shows large spatial variability in soot deposition that reflects the localized emissions and the influence of the complex terrain. The soot-induced snow albedo perturbations increase the net solar radiation flux at the surface during late winter to early spring, increase the surface air temperature, reduce snow water equivalent amount, and lead to reduced snow accumulation and less spring snowmelt. These effects are stronger over the central Rockies and southern Alberta, where soot deposition and snowpack overlap the most. The indirect forcing of soot accelerates snowmelt and alters stream flows, including a trend toward earlier melt dates in the western United States. The soot-induced albedo reduction initiates a positive feedback process whereby dirty snow absorbs more solar radiation, heating the surface and warming the air. This warming causes reduced snow depth and fraction, which further reduces the regional surface albedo for the snow covered regions. Our simulations indicate that the change of maximum snow albedo induced by soot on snow contributes to 60% of the net albedo reduction over the central Rockies. Snowpack reduction accounts for the additional 40%.

  18. ON THE IMPACT OF SUPER RESOLUTION WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS

    SciTech Connect

    Chiswell, S

    2009-01-11

    Assimilation of radar velocity and precipitation fields into high-resolution model simulations can improve precipitation forecasts with decreased 'spin-up' time and improve short-term simulation of boundary layer winds (Benjamin, 2004 & 2007; Xiao, 2008) which is critical to improving plume transport forecasts. Accurate description of wind and turbulence fields is essential to useful atmospheric transport and dispersion results, and any improvement in the accuracy of these fields will make consequence assessment more valuable during both routine operation as well as potential emergency situations. During 2008, the United States National Weather Service (NWS) radars implemented a significant upgrade which increased the real-time level II data resolution to 8 times their previous 'legacy' resolution, from 1 km range gate and 1.0 degree azimuthal resolution to 'super resolution' 250 m range gate and 0.5 degree azimuthal resolution (Fig 1). These radar observations provide reflectivity, velocity and returned power spectra measurements at a range of up to 300 km (460 km for reflectivity) at a frequency of 4-5 minutes and yield up to 13.5 million point observations per level in super-resolution mode. The migration of National Weather Service (NWS) WSR-88D radars to super resolution is expected to improve warning lead times by detecting small scale features sooner with increased reliability; however, current operational mesoscale model domains utilize grid spacing several times larger than the legacy data resolution, and therefore the added resolution of radar data is not fully exploited. The assimilation of super resolution reflectivity and velocity data into high resolution numerical weather model forecasts where grid spacing is comparable to the radar data resolution is investigated here to determine the impact of the improved data resolution on model predictions.

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  20. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  1. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  2. Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The goal of this project is to produce accurate, consistent and comprehensive data sets ... (NCEP) and has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. ...

  3. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  4. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  5. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-10-02

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  6. PNNL-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Chem Modeling in...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    San Francisco, CA, A41F-01. Fast JD, JC Doran, JC Barnard, S Springs ton, L Klein man, L Emmons, C Wiedinmyer. 2007. "Predictions of aerosols downwind of Mexico City using a...

  7. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  8. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-10-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  9. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  10. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2012-06-01

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

  11. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  12. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  13. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  14. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  15. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  16. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  17. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological ...

  18. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  19. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  20. Towards Ultra-High Resolution Models of Climate and Weather

    SciTech Connect

    Wehner, Michael; Oliker, Leonid; Shalf, John

    2007-01-01

    We present a speculative extrapolation of the performance aspects of an atmospheric general circulation model to ultra-high resolution and describe alternative technological paths to realize integration of such a model in the relatively near future. Due to a superlinear scaling of the computational burden dictated by stability criterion, the solution of the equations of motion dominate the calculation at ultra-high resolutions. From this extrapolation, it is estimated that a credible kilometer scale atmospheric model would require at least a sustained ten petaflop computer to provide scientifically useful climate simulations. Our design study portends an alternate strategy for practical power-efficient implementations of petaflop scale systems. Embedded processor technology could be exploited to tailor a custom machine designed to ultra-high climate model specifications at relatively affordable cost and power considerations. The major conceptual changes required by a kilometer scale climate model are certain to be difficult to implement. Although the hardware, software, and algorithms are all equally critical in conducting ultra-high climate resolution studies, it is likely that the necessary petaflop computing technology will be available in advance of a credible kilometer scale climate model.

  1. Runtime System Library for Parallel Weather Modules

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    1997-07-22

    RSL is a Fortran-callable runtime library for use in implementing regular-grid weather forecast models, with nesting, on scalable distributed memory parallel computers. It provides high-level routines for finite-difference stencil communications and inter-domain exchange of data for nested forcing and feedback. RSL supports a unique point-wise domain-decomposition strategy to facilitate load-balancing.

  2. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  3. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  4. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  5. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  6. A Chronological Reliability Model Incorporating Wind Forecasts to Assess Wind Plant Reserve Allocation: Preprint

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    * NREL/CP-500-32210 A Chronological Reliability Model Incorporating Wind Forecasts to Assess Wind Plant Reserve Allocation Preprint Michael Milligan To be presented at the American Wind Energy Association WindPower 2002 Conference Portland, Oregon June 3 - June 5, 2002 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337

  7. Severe Weather Update: JLab Remains in HPC-2 for Nor'easter ...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Severe Weather Update: JLab Remains in HPC-2 for Nor'easter & Hurricane Jefferson Lab's Emergency Management Severe Weather Team continues monitoring the forecasts and conditions...

  8. Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Done, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka

    2013-10-19

    Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are resented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices.

  9. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  10. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  12. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    SciTech Connect

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spread over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.

  13. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  14. Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J. -J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Garcia-Pando, C. Perez; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; et al

    2016-04-21

    In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distributionmore » was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. In this paper, our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.« less

  15. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  16. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  17. HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Pereira, Jose M.; Hurtt, George C.

    2015-02-13

    Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

  18. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  19. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for those issued less

  20. Data Network Weather Service Reporting - Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Michael Frey

    2012-08-30

    A final report is made of a three-year effort to develop a new forecasting paradigm for computer network performance. This effort was made in co-ordination with Fermi Lab's construction of e-Weather Center.

  1. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  2. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  3. Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment (Dataset) | Data Explorer Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment Title: Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment ECMWF derived diagnostic variables over MAGIC's ship path from Los Angeles, CA and Honolulu, HI. Two dimensional (time and height) slices were extracted once the ship's exact positions were

  4. Using Mesoscale Weather Model Output as Boundary Conditions for Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulations and Wind-Plant Aerodynamic Simulations (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Churchfield, M. J.; Michalakes, J.; Vanderwende, B.; Lee, S.; Sprague, M. A.; Lundquist, J. K.; Moriarty, P. J.

    2013-10-01

    Wind plant aerodynamics are directly affected by the microscale weather, which is directly influenced by the mesoscale weather. Microscale weather refers to processes that occur within the atmospheric boundary layer with the largest scales being a few hundred meters to a few kilometers depending on the atmospheric stability of the boundary layer. Mesoscale weather refers to large weather patterns, such as weather fronts, with the largest scales being hundreds of kilometers wide. Sometimes microscale simulations that capture mesoscale-driven variations (changes in wind speed and direction over time or across the spatial extent of a wind plant) are important in wind plant analysis. In this paper, we present our preliminary work in coupling a mesoscale weather model with a microscale atmospheric large-eddy simulation model. The coupling is one-way beginning with the weather model and ending with a computational fluid dynamics solver using the weather model in coarse large-eddy simulation mode as an intermediary. We simulate one hour of daytime moderately convective microscale development driven by the mesoscale data, which are applied as initial and boundary conditions to the microscale domain, at a site in Iowa. We analyze the time and distance necessary for the smallest resolvable microscales to develop.

  5. 2016 SSL Forecast Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, is a biannual report which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S. general-lighting market,...

  6. SSL Forecast Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, is the latest edition of a biannual report which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S....

  7. A Better Way to ID Extreme Weather Events in Climate Models

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    "We're using state-of-the-art methods in data mining and high performance computing to locate and quantify extreme weather phenomena in the very large datasets generated by today's ...

  8. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B. . E-mail: nchang@even.tamuk.edu

    2005-07-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.

  9. Comparison of Approaches to Calibrate a Surface Complexation Model for U(VI) Sorption to Weathered Saprolite

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Fan; Parker, Jack C.; Brooks, Scott C; Kim, Young Jin; Tang, Guoping; Jardine, Philip M; Watson, David B

    2009-01-01

    A surface complexation model describing the sorption of uranyl ions and uranyl carbonate on weak and strong sites was used to analyze experiments on pH-dependent U(VI) sorption to weathered shale/limestone saprolite. Sorption data were collected at two different solid to solution ratios. Various methods of estimating equilibrium reaction coefficients and site densities were investigated. As a first approximation, extractable iron oxides were assumed to behave as ferrihydrite with reaction coefficients as reported by Waite et al. (1994). A generalized composite (GC) approach was then employed with coefficients estimated by an inverse modeling method applied both in a stepwise fashion and simultaneously to whole data set. Uncertainty in model parameters and predictions was lowest using the simultaneous inverse method, but results from the stepwise method were very similar. The generalized reaction network accurately described pH-dependent U(VI) sorption on weathered saprolite between pH 4 to 9.

  10. ARM - Weather

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    TeachersTopic ListWeather Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Weather Weather refers to short-term changes in atmospheric conditions or elements. Here, short-term means that the changes taking place over a matter of seconds, minutes, or hours, or from day to day. It is a term

  11. Commercial Weatherization

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Commercial buildings consume 19 percent of the energy used in the U.S. Learn how the Energy Department is supporting research and deployment on commercial weatherization.

  12. Weatherization Program

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Residences participating in the Home Energy Rebate or New Home Rebate Program may not also participate in the Weatherization Program. 

  13. Weatherization Roundup

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    More than 750 thousand homes were weatherized by the Department’s Weatherization Assistance Program in the past three years. Secretary Chu spoke with governors and members of Congress around the country to celebrate this huge accomplishment -- which was finished ahead of schedule and is saving the average household $400 annually on their heating and cooling bills.

  14. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  15. Solar Forecasting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  16. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  17. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  18. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  19. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  20. Weatherizing America

    ScienceCinema

    Stewart, Zachary; Bergeron, T.J.; Barth, Dale; Qualis, Xavier; Sewall, Travis; Fransen, Richard; Gill, Tony

    2016-07-12

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working again, but also to find a calling.

  1. Weatherizing America

    SciTech Connect

    Stewart, Zachary; Bergeron, T.J.; Barth, Dale; Qualis, Xavier; Sewall, Travis; Fransen, Richard; Gill, Tony

    2009-01-01

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working again, but also to find a calling.

  2. Weatherizing America

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    As Recovery Act money arrives to expand home weatherization programs across the country, Zachary Stewart of Phoenix, Ariz., and others have found an exciting opportunity not only to start working...

  3. ARM - Weather

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    SitesWeather Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Weather Air Quality Meteorology This website features a course for environmental decision-makers, scientists, technical advisors, and educators. The course is introduces basic concepts of meteorology and air quality necessary to

  4. Weatherization Update

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization Update NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Objectives & Overview Presentation Objectives: * Brief background on the program * Update on New Initiatives for Weatherization Overview 1. Background 2. ARRA - Expanded provisions 3. Expansion of Traditional Service 4. Training & Technical Assistance Plan NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY

  5. Notice of Intent to Issue Solar Forecasting 2 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting 2 Notice of Intent to Issue Solar Forecasting 2 Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Number: DE-FOA-0001658 Funding Amount: $10,000,000 The SunShot Initiative intends to release a funding opportunity announcement (FOA) to support advancements in solar forecasting to enable higher penetration of solar power in the electric grid. The Solar Forecasting 2 FOA will focus on improving solar forecasting skills, especially during challenging conditions, such as partly cloudy weather

  6. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  7. Forecast Change

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 ...

  8. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric

    SciTech Connect

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-09-19

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the “Microbase” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  9. Inupiat Weather Expertise Lesson.doc

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Iñupiat Weather Expertise Grades: 5 th - 7 th Duration: 1 week of class time. 1 hour of class time a day. If the class can do activity 2, half an hour a day for a month of classtime is needed. Objectives: The objective of this lesson is for students to learn some weather related traditional knowledge by inviting an elder into the classroom, and to document this knowledge. Also, the students are to prepare a weather forecast and present it as if they were on a television news program. The

  10. Road Weather Predictions

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Road Weather Predictions Background The U.S. economy depends on the national highway ... Road Weather1 Weather-related impacts on transportation networks (Image courtesy of the ...

  11. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

  12. Weather control

    SciTech Connect

    Leepson, M.

    1980-09-05

    Weather modification, the intentional altering of atmospheric conditions to suit the purposes of humankind, has five basic forms: (1) fog dissipation; (2) rain and snow enhancement; (3) hail suppression; (4) lightning suppression; and (5) the abatement of severe storms such as hurricanes and tornadoes. The dissipation of fog and the seeding of clouds with dry ice or silver iodide to produce rain are the most successful weather modification techniques. Both are used extensively and with varying degrees of success in the United States and around the world. Cloud seeding, though, is not effective in easing the harshness of a drought, such as the one that hit the Southwest, Midwest and Great Plains this summer.

  13. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  14. DOE Workshop; Pan-Gass Conference on the Representation of Atmospheric Processes in Weather and Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Morrison, PI Hugh

    2012-09-21

    This is the first meeting of the whole new GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project that has been formed from the merger of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Project and the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies (GABLS). As such, this meeting will play a major role in energizing GEWEX work in the area of atmospheric parameterizations of clouds, convection, stable boundary layers, and aerosol-cloud interactions for the numerical models used for weather and climate projections at both global and regional scales. The representation of these processes in models is crucial to GEWEX goals of improved prediction of the energy and water cycles at both weather and climate timescales. This proposal seeks funds to be used to cover incidental and travel expenses for U.S.-based graduate students and early career scientists (i.e., within 5 years of receiving their highest degree). We anticipate using DOE funding to support 5-10 people. We will advertise the availability of these funds by providing a box to check for interested participants on the online workshop registration form. We will also send a note to our participants' mailing lists reminding them that the funds are available and asking senior scientists to encourage their more junior colleagues to participate. All meeting participants are encouraged to submit abstracts for oral or poster presentations. The science organizing committee (see below) will base funding decisions on the relevance and quality of these abstracts, with preference given to under-represented populations (especially women and minorities) and to early career scientists being actively mentored at the meeting (e.g. students or postdocs attending the meeting with their advisor).

  15. An Improved Model To Forecast Co2 Leakage Rates Along A Wellbore...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    geometry of leakage pathways. We have implemented a SCP model described in the literature, which yields an estimate of the depth of the leakage source and the effective...

  16. Hawaii demand-side management resource assessment. Final report, Reference Volume 5: The DOETRAN user`s manual; The DOE-2/DBEDT DSM forecasting model interface

    SciTech Connect

    1995-04-01

    The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then process the data into the forecasting model format. As DOETRAN processes the DOE-2 data, graphs of the total electric monthly impacts for each DSM measure appear, providing the user with a visual means of inspecting DOE-2 data, as well as following program execution. DOETRAN provides three tables for each building type for the forecasting model, one for electric measures, gas measures, and basecases. The optional fourth function provided by DOETRAN is to view graphs of total electric annual impacts by measure. This last option allows a comparative view of how one measure rates against another. A section in this manual is devoted to each of the four functions mentioned above, as well as computer requirements and exiting DOETRAN.

  17. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  18. Household heating bills expected to be higher than last winter, mainly driven by colder weather

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Household heating bills expected to be higher than last winter, mainly driven by colder weather U.S. households are expected to pay higher heating bills this winter compared to last winter mainly because the weather is forecast to be colder than the relatively mild weather seen last winter and fuel prices are forecast to be higher. In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said households using heating oil will see a 38% jump in their heating fuel expenditures while propane

  19. Weatherization Training for South Carolina's Muggy Weather

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Why it makes sense for one technical college in Charleston, South Carolina is adding weatherization programs to their curriculum.

  20. Final Report, 2011-2014. Forecasting Carbon Storage as Eastern Forests Age. Joining Experimental and Modeling Approaches at the UMBS AmeriFlux Site

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, Peter; Bohrer, Gil; Gough, Christopher; Nadelhoffer, Knute

    2015-03-12

    At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS) AmeriFlux sites (US-UMB and US-UMd), long-term C cycling measurements and a novel ecosystem-scale experiment are revealing physical, biological, and ecological mechanisms driving long-term trajectories of C cycling, providing new data for improving modeling forecasts of C storage in eastern forests. Our findings provide support for previously untested hypotheses that stand-level structural and biological properties constrain long-term trajectories of C storage, and that remotely sensed canopy structural parameters can substantially improve model forecasts of forest C storage. Through the Forest Accelerated Succession ExperimenT (FASET), we are directly testing the hypothesis that forest C storage will increase due to increasing structural and biological complexity of the emerging tree communities. Support from this project, 2011-2014, enabled us to incorporate novel physical and ecological mechanisms into ecological, meteorological, and hydrological models to improve forecasts of future forest C storage in response to disturbance, succession, and current and long-term climate variation

  1. Cathy Zoi on Weatherization

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

  2. Cathy Zoi on Weatherization

    ScienceCinema

    Zoi, Cath

    2013-05-29

    Right now, the Weatherization Assistance Program is now weatherizing 25,000 homes each month. So far 10,000 jobs have been created under the Recovery Act.

  3. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  4. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-10-27

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore » forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

  5. DREAM tool increases space weather predictions

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    DREAM tool increases space weather predictions Model addresses radiation hazards of the space environment on space systems. April 13, 2012 Scientists studying Earth's radiation ...

  6. The quest to predict severe weather sooner

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    several decades in computer modeling and observational equipment. However, when it comes to severe weather, that reliability typically begins to deteriorate beyond a two-day ...

  7. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Activities

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization and Intergovernmental Activities Annual Performance Results and Targets FY 2008 Congressional Budget

  8. Weather - Hanford Site

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Weather Weather Calendar Hanford Blog Archive Search Site Feeds Site Index Weather What's New Weather Email Email Page | Print Print Page | Text Increase Font Size Decrease Font Size Hanford Weather as reported by NOAA. Current 46.4°F Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy Today 52°F (34°F) Patchy Fog Patchy Fog Tomorrow 47°F (38°F) Mostly Cloudy Mostly Cloudy

  9. Weatherize | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherize Weatherize Proper insulation is just one element of weatherization that can save you money and improve the comfort and efficiency of your home. | Photo courtesy of Dennis Schroeder, NREL. Proper insulation is just one element of weatherization that can save you money and improve the comfort and efficiency of your home. | Photo courtesy of Dennis Schroeder, NREL. Weatherizing your home helps you save money by saving energy, and it can also improve the comfort of your home. Conduct a

  10. On-line Chemistry within WRF: Description and Evaluation of a State-of-the-Art Multiscale Air Quality and Weather Prediction Model

    SciTech Connect

    Grell, Georg; Fast, Jerome D.; Gustafson, William I.; Peckham, Steven E.; McKeen, Stuart A.; Salzmann, Marc; Freitas, Saulo

    2010-01-01

    This is a conference proceeding that is now being put together as a book. This is chapter 2 of the book: "INTEGRATED SYSTEMS OF MESO-METEOROLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODELS" published by Springer. The chapter title is "On-line Chemistry within WRF: Description and Evaluation of a State-of-the-Art Multiscale Air Quality and Weather Prediction Model." The original conference was the COST-728/NetFAM workshop on Integrated systems of meso-meteorological and chemical transport models, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, May 21-23, 2007.

  11. High Resolution Atmospheric Modeling for Wind Energy Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, M; Bulaevskaya, V; Glascoe, L; Singer, M

    2010-03-18

    The ability of the WRF atmospheric model to forecast wind speed over the Nysted wind park was investigated as a function of time. It was found that in the time period we considered (August 1-19, 2008), the model is able to predict wind speeds reasonably accurately for 48 hours ahead, but that its forecast skill deteriorates rapidly after 48 hours. In addition, a preliminary analysis was carried out to investigate the impact of vertical grid resolution on the forecast skill. Our preliminary finding is that increasing vertical grid resolution does not have a significant impact on the forecast skill of the WRF model over Nysted wind park during the period we considered. Additional simulations during this period, as well as during other time periods, will be run in order to validate the results presented here. Wind speed is a difficult parameter to forecast due the interaction of large and small length scale forcing. To accurately forecast the wind speed at a given location, the model must correctly forecast the movement and strength of synoptic systems, as well as the local influence of topography / land use on the wind speed. For example, small deviations in the forecast track or strength of a large-scale low pressure system can result in significant forecast errors for local wind speeds. The purpose of this study is to provide a preliminary baseline of a high-resolution limited area model forecast performance against observations from the Nysted wind park. Validating the numerical weather prediction model performance for past forecasts will give a reasonable measure of expected forecast skill over the Nysted wind park. Also, since the Nysted Wind Park is over water and some distance from the influence of terrain, the impact of high vertical grid spacing for wind speed forecast skill will also be investigated.

  12. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  13. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  14. Weather-Resistive Barriers

    SciTech Connect

    2000-10-01

    How to select and install housewrap and other types of weather-resistive barriers: Building Technology Fact Sheet

  15. Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This fact sheet provides an overview of the U.S. Department of Energys Weatherization Assistance Program.

  16. The Impact of Weatherization

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Weatherization Assistance Program under the Recovery Act is making a serious impact in savings this summer.

  17. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  18. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  19. Aleutian Pribilof Islands Weatherization Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization Energy conservation education ... Native Village of Sand Point, AK Focus Communities Unanagx ... core competencies for the Weatherization Assistance Program. ...

  20. Roel Neggers European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Roderick Jackson About Us Roderick Jackson - Technical Lead, Oak Ridge National Lab Roderick Jackson leads the Building Envelope Systems Research Group at the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory and serves as the technical lead for the Additive Manufacturing Integrated Energy (AMIE) demonstration project. He holds a bachelor's, master's, and Ph.D. in mechanical engineering from Georgia Tech. More about the AMIE demonstration project can be found:

  1. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  2. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  3. Solar Forecasting Technical Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting Technical Workshop August 3, 2016 901 D St SW, Suite #930, Washington, DC Agenda 8:00-8:30 Check-in 8:30-8:45 Welcome & Opening remarks Guohui Yuan, DOE 8:45-9:15 Overview of Motivation and Techniques for Solar Forecasting Jan Kleissl, UCSD 9:15-9:45 Collaborative Research on Solar Power Forecasting: Challenges, Methods, and Assessment Tara Jensen, NCAR 9:45-10:00 Break 10:00-10:30 Machine-learning Based Enhancements for Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Research to Applications

  4. Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  5. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    SciTech Connect

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

  6. Agent-based model forecasts aging of the population of people who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago and changing prevalence of hepatitis C infections

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Gutfraind, Alexander; Boodram, Basmattee; Prachand, Nikhil; Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew; Dahari, Harel; Major, Marian E.; Kaderali, Lars

    2015-09-30

    People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID tomore » build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010–2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(±2)% to 36(±5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(±5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(±1) to 40(±2) with a corresponding increase from 59(±2)% to 80(±6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our research highlight the importance of analyzing sub-populations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.« less

  7. An Inupiat Weather Report

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    The objective of this lesson is for students to correctly use the Iupiat language using weather related vocabulary, numbers, and days of the week. Students will...

  8. Oh, the Weather Outside is Frightful: Weatherizing Manufactured Homes (301)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    | Department of Energy Oh, the Weather Outside is Frightful: Weatherizing Manufactured Homes (301) Oh, the Weather Outside is Frightful: Weatherizing Manufactured Homes (301) December 8, 2016 1:00PM to 2:30PM EST Join this Better Buildings call to discuss best practices and lessons learned for weatherization programs. Register

  9. Home Weatherization Visit

    ScienceCinema

    Chu, Steven

    2016-07-12

    Secretary Steven Chu visits a home that is in the process of being weatherized in Columbus, OH, along with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. They discuss the benefits of weatherization and how funding from the recovery act is having a direct impact in communities across America.

  10. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in...

  11. The Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College

    ScienceCinema

    Meville, Jeff; Wilson, Jack; Manz, John; Gannett, Kirk; Smith, Franzennia;

    2013-05-29

    A look into some of the remarkable work being done in the Weatherization Training program at Pennsylvania College. Penn College's program has served as the model for six other training centers in Pennsylvania alone.

  12. Cold Weather Hazards

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    0 Cold Weather Hazards June 2010 NSA_cwh_Rev10.doc 1 Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility/ North Slope of Alaska/Adjacent Arctic Ocean (ACRF/NSA/AAO) Cold Weather Hazards Winter Conditions at the North Slope of Alaska The North Slope of Alaska is north of the Arctic Circle at latitudes ranging from 69 to 72 degrees. Barrow, the largest town on the North Slope (pop. 4500), is the site of a National Weather Service Station, which has been active for several decades, so the

  13. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  14. weather | National Nuclear Security Administration

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    weather NNSA & Nuclear Security Enterprise support nation's preparedness Scientists at NNSA facilities study climate and meteorology. Other sites are key players in weather ...

  15. WEATHERIZATION AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL PROGRAMS WEATHERIZATION AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    PROGRAMS OFFICE Overview The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) is to partner with state and local organizations to signifcantly accelerate the deployment of energy effciency and renewable energy technologies and practices by a wide range of government, community, and business stakeholders. Aligning with the President Obama's Climate Action Plan and the Administration's All-Of-The-Above Energy Strategy, WIP addresses the demand

  16. Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

  17. Weatherizing Wilkes-Barre

    ScienceCinema

    Calore, Joe

    2013-05-29

    Ride along with some weatherizers in Wilkes-Barre, PA, as they blower door test, manage z-doors, and dense pack their way to an energy efficient future one house at a time.

  18. Home Weatherization Visit

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Secretary Steven Chu visits a home that is in the process of being weatherized in Columbus, OH, along with Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman. They discuss the benefits...

  19. Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Through the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issues grants to states, territories, and some Indian tribes to improve the energy efficiency of low-income...

  20. The Impact of IBM Cell Technology on the Programming Paradigm in the Context of Computer Systems for Climate and Weather Models

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Shujia; Duffy, Daniel; Clune, Thomas; Suarez, Max; Williams, Samuel; Halem, Milton

    2009-01-10

    The call for ever-increasing model resolutions and physical processes in climate and weather models demands a continual increase in computing power. The IBM Cell processor's order-of-magnitude peak performance increase over conventional processors makes it very attractive to fulfill this requirement. However, the Cell's characteristics, 256KB local memory per SPE and the new low-level communication mechanism, make it very challenging to port an application. As a trial, we selected the solar radiation component of the NASA GEOS-5 climate model, which: (1) is representative of column physics components (half the total computational time), (2) has an extremely high computational intensity: the ratio of computational load to main memory transfers, and (3) exhibits embarrassingly parallel column computations. In this paper, we converted the baseline code (single-precision Fortran) to C and ported it to an IBM BladeCenter QS20. For performance, we manually SIMDize four independent columns and include several unrolling optimizations. Our results show that when compared with the baseline implementation running on one core of Intel's Xeon Woodcrest, Dempsey, and Itanium2, the Cell is approximately 8.8x, 11.6x, and 12.8x faster, respectively. Our preliminary analysis shows that the Cell can also accelerate the dynamics component (~;;25percent total computational time). We believe these dramatic performance improvements make the Cell processor very competitive as an accelerator.

  1. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. Report of the External Peer Review Panel (777.84 KB) More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  2. HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC ENSEMBLE MODELING AT SRNL

    SciTech Connect

    Buckley, R.; Werth, D.; Chiswell, S.; Etherton, B.

    2011-05-10

    The High-Resolution Mid-Atlantic Forecasting Ensemble (HME) is a federated effort to improve operational forecasts related to precipitation, convection and boundary layer evolution, and fire weather utilizing data and computing resources from a diverse group of cooperating institutions in order to create a mesoscale ensemble from independent members. Collaborating organizations involved in the project include universities, National Weather Service offices, and national laboratories, including the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL). The ensemble system is produced from an overlapping numerical weather prediction model domain and parameter subsets provided by each contributing member. The coordination, synthesis, and dissemination of the ensemble information are performed by the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill. This paper discusses background related to the HME effort, SRNL participation, and example results available from the RENCI website.

  3. Model representations of aerosol layers transported from North America over

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    the Atlantic Ocean during the Two-Column Aerosol Project (Journal Article) | DOE PAGES Model representations of aerosol layers transported from North America over the Atlantic Ocean during the Two-Column Aerosol Project This content will become publicly available on August 22, 2017 Title: Model representations of aerosol layers transported from North America over the Atlantic Ocean during the Two-Column Aerosol Project The ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry

  4. Attributing Changes in the Risk of Extreme Weather and Climate...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    150 Million Year: 2013 Research Domain: Earth Science The climate system is a naturally ... Modeling of the statistics of extreme weather is exceedingly computationally intensive. ...

  5. Weatherization Assistance Program Briefing Book

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy's briefing book of information about the Weatherization Assistance Program.

  6. DOPPLER WEATHER SYSTEM

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2002-08-05

    The SRS Doppler Weather System consists of a Doppler Server, A Master Server (also known as the Weather Server), several Doppler Slave Servers, and client-side software program called the Doppler Radar Client. This system is used to display near rel-time images taken from the SRS Weather Center's Doppler Radar computer. The Doppler Server is software that resides on the SRS Doppler Computer. It gathers raw data, 24-bit color weather images via screen scraping ever fivemore » minutes as requested by the Master Server. The Doppler Server then reduces the 24-bit color images to 8-bit color using a fixed color table for analysis and compression. This preserves the fidelity of the image color and arranges the colors in specific order for display. At the time of color reduction, the white color used for the city names on the background images are remapped to a different index (color) of white that the white on the weather scale. The Weather Server places a time stamp on the image, then compresses the image and passes it to all Doppler Slave servers. Each of the Doppler Slave servers mainitain a circular buffer of the eight most current images representing the last 40 minutes of weather data. As a new image is added, the oldest drops off. The Doppler Radar Client is an optional install program for any site-wide workstation. When a Client session is started, the Client requests Doppler Slave server assignment from the Master Server. Upon its initial request to the Slave Server, the Client obtains all eight current images and maintains its own circular buffer, updating its images every five minutes as the Doppler Slave is updated. Three background reference images are stored as part of the Client. The Client brings up the appropriate background image, decompresses the doppler data, and displays the doppler data on the background image.« less

  7. Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model

    SciTech Connect

    Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.

    2014-07-25

    We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is delayed and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.

  8. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ... Gamma and that of Q is inverse Wishart. 5 Our forecasts take into account that the model parameters continue to drift over the forecast horizon according to their law of motion. ...

  9. Evaluation of cloud prediction and determination of critical relative humidity for a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model

    SciTech Connect

    Seaman, N.L.; Guo, Z.; Ackerman, T.P.

    1996-04-01

    Predictions of cloud occurrence and vertical location from the Pennsylvannia State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) were evaluated statistically using cloud observations obtained at Coffeyville, Kansas, as part of the Second International satellite Cloud Climatology Project Regional Experiment campaign. Seventeen cases were selected for simulation during a November-December 1991 field study. MM5 was used to produce two sets of 36-km simulations, one with and one without four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), and a set of 12-km simulations without FDDA, but nested within the 36-km FDDA runs.

  10. The Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation Model Intercomparison

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Project (McMIP) The Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation Model Intercomparison Project (McMIP) Barker, Howard Meteorological Service of Canada Cole, Jason Meteorological Service of Canada Raisanen, Petri Finnish Meteorological Institute Pincus, Robert NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Li, Jiangnan Canadian Center for Climate Modelling Stephens, Graeme Colorado State University Vaillancourt, Paul

  11. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 16-XX EFFECTIVE DATE: SUBJECT: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    6-XX EFFECTIVE DATE: SUBJECT: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION PURPOSE: To provide Grantees with consolidated guidance on previously issued Weatherization Program Notices (WPNs) on weatherizing multifamily buildings in the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). This supersedes WPN 10-7 and WPN 11-9 SCOPE: The provisions of this guidance apply to Grantees applying for financial assistance under the Department of Energy (DOE) WAP. LEGAL AUTHORITY: Title IV, Energy Conservation and Production Act, as

  12. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  13. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  14. Weatherization Rules and Regulations Resources

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Federal regulations provide the framework for the Weatherization Assistance Program. These rules and regulations give state and local weatherization programs guidelines to provide the energy efficiency improvements to low-income dwellings.

  15. Grandma's House (Weatherization) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Grandma's House (Weatherization) Grandma's House (Weatherization) Addthis When you weatherize a home it needs to work as a system. Learn more here

  16. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  17. Long-range Weather Prediction and Prevention of Climate Catastrophes: A Status Report

    DOE R&D Accomplishments

    Caldeira, K.; Caravan, G.; Govindasamy, B.; Grossman, A.; Hyde, R.; Ishikawa, M.; Ledebuhr, A.; Leith, C.; Molenkamp, C.; Teller, E.; Wood, L.

    1999-08-18

    As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one. Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more

  18. Red Lake Weatherization Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    REVIEW RED LAKE WEATHERIZATION PROJECT BERT VAN WERT ENERGY ACTIVITIES COORDINATOR Project Overview To develop the capacity to conduct energy audits Implement energy efficiency measures into Tribal homes Develop a Tribally administered Energy Efficiency Program and business PROJECT LOCATION Our project is located at Red Lake Housing Authority Red Lake Band of Chippewa Indians Red Lake , MN Red Lake Band of Chippewas Area overview Reservation (Diminished Lands) and Surroundings Red Lake Band of

  19. Lidar-measured winds from space: A key component for weather and climate prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Baker, W.E.; Emmitt, G.D.; Robertson, F.

    1995-06-01

    The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substantially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncertainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone. 99 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.

  20. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2016-07-12

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  1. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP): Technical Assistance Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Hollander, A.

    2014-09-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of low-income residences without the utilization of additional taxpayer funding. Sixteen WIPP grantees were awarded a total of $30 million in Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) funds in September 2010. These projects focused on: including nontraditional partners in weatherization service delivery; leveraging significant non-federal funding; and improving the effectiveness of low-income weatherization through the use of new materials, technologies, behavior-change models, and processes.

  2. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  3. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  4. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  5. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  6. Connecticut's Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization...

    Energy Saver

    Center Donna Hawkins Technology Transfer Specialist, Weatherization Assistance Program Floris Weston Project Officer, Weatherization Assistance Program KEY FACTS The Energy ...

  7. Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    More Documents & Publications Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) - ...

  8. Leveraging Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Resources for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) webinar held on ... Leveraging Resources for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Projects (WIPP) Presentation ...

  9. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency ...

  10. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  11. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  12. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  13. The forecast calls for flu

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  14. Connecticut Weatherization Project Improves Lives, Receives National

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Recognition | Department of Energy Connecticut Weatherization Project Improves Lives, Receives National Recognition Connecticut Weatherization Project Improves Lives, Receives National Recognition May 6, 2014 - 12:24pm Addthis Donna Hawkins Technology Transfer Specialist, Weatherization Assistance Program Harris Walker Communications Specialist, Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program MORE WEATHERIZATION STORIES Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs through Weatherization

  15. Cloudy Sky RRTM Shortwave Radiative Transfer and Comparison to the Revised ECMWF Shortwave Model

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Cloudy Sky RRTM Shortwave Radiative Transfer and Comparison to the Revised ECMWF Shortwave Model M. J. Iacono, J. S. Delamere, E. J. Mlawer, and S. A. Clough Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington, Massachusetts J.-J. Morcrette European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reading, United Kingdom Introduction An important step toward improving radiative transfer codes in general circulation models (GCMs) is their thorough evaluation by comparison to measurements directly, or

  16. National Weatherization Assistance Program Impact Evaluation: Weatherization Staff Survey

    SciTech Connect

    Carroll, David; Berger, Jacqueline; Miller, Carolyn; Johnson, Daya Bill

    2015-02-01

    This report presents results from a national survey of a representative sample of local weatherization staff -- auditors, crew chiefs, crew members.

  17. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  18. ARM - Lesson Plans: Current Weather

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Current Weather Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Lesson Plans: Current Weather Objective The objective of this activity is to understand the difference between weather and climate and changes that take place in a given environment. Materials Each student or group of students

  19. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  20. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  1. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  2. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  3. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  4. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  5. Weatherization Pilot Projects | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Pilot Projects Weatherization Pilot Projects The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) supported two projects that allowed local weatherization agencies to experiment with including new and innovative materials and energy efficiency technologies provided to weatherization clients. Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers Under the Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers

  6. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  7. USE OF AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL TO FORECAST DISSOLUTION EFFECTIVENESS, SAFETY IMPACTS, AND DOWNSTREAM PROCESSABILITY FROM OXALIC ACID AIDED SLUDGE REMOVAL IN SAVANNAH RIVER SITE HIGH LEVEL WASTE TANKS 1-15

    SciTech Connect

    KETUSKY, EDWARD

    2005-10-31

    This thesis details a graduate research effort written to fulfill the Magister of Technologiae in Chemical Engineering requirements at the University of South Africa. The research evaluates the ability of equilibrium based software to forecast dissolution, evaluate safety impacts, and determine downstream processability changes associated with using oxalic acid solutions to dissolve sludge heels in Savannah River Site High Level Waste (HLW) Tanks 1-15. First, a dissolution model is constructed and validated. Coupled with a model, a material balance determines the fate of hypothetical worst-case sludge in the treatment and neutralization tanks during each chemical adjustment. Although sludge is dissolved, after neutralization more is created within HLW. An energy balance determines overpressurization and overheating to be unlikely. Corrosion induced hydrogen may overwhelm the purge ventilation. Limiting the heel volume treated/acid added and processing the solids through vitrification is preferred and should not significantly increase the number of glass canisters.

  8. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-11-10.xlsx (70.03 KB) More Documents & Publications National Nuclear Security Administration - Juliana Heynes Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment

  9. Weather and the Transport of Hazardous Materials

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    FHWA R d W h M P FHWA R d W h M P FHWA Road Weather Management Program FHWA Road Weather Management Program " "Weather and the transport of Hazardous Materials" Ray Murphy Office ...

  10. U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06302010 (Calendar Year) U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By ...

  11. Accounting for Unresolved Spatial Variability in Large Scale Models: Development and Evaluation of a Statistical Cloud Parameterization with Prognostic Higher Order Moments

    SciTech Connect

    Robert Pincus

    2011-05-17

    This project focused on the variability of clouds that is present across a wide range of scales ranging from the synoptic to the millimeter. In particular, there is substantial variability in cloud properties at scales smaller than the grid spacing of models used to make climate projections (GCMs) and weather forecasts. These models represent clouds and other small-scale processes with parameterizations that describe how those processes respond to and feed back on the largescale state of the atmosphere.

  12. WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET Form is designed to gather specific detail related to the expenditures of the Weatherization grant. WEATHERIZATION ANNUAL FILE WORKSHEET (134.96 KB) More Documents & Publications DOE F 540.3 WPN 06-3: Revised Weatherization Assistance Program Application Instructions and Forms WPN 04-4: Revised Weatherization Assistance Program Application Package and Reporting Format

  13. WeatherMaker: Weather file conversion and evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Balcomb, J.D.

    1999-07-01

    WeatherMaker is a weather-data utility for use with the ENERGY-10 design-tool computer program. The three main features are: Convert--Weather files can be converted from one format to another. For example, a TMY2 format file can be converted to an ENERGY-10 binary file that can be used in a simulation. This binary file can then be converted to a text format that allows it to be read and/or manipulated in WordPad or Excel. Evaluate--ENERGY-10 weather files can be studied in great detail. There are 8 graphical displays of the data that provide insight into the data, and a summary tables that presents results calculated from the hourly data. Adjust--Hourly temperature data can be adjusted starting with hourly data from a nearby TMY2 site. Dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperatures are adjusted up or down as required to match given monthly statistics. This feature can be used to generate weather files for any of 3,958 sites in the US where such monthly statistics are tabulated. The paper shows a variety of results, explains the methods used, and discusses the rationale for making the adjustments. It is anticipated that WeatherMaker will be released by the time of the ASES Solar 99 conference.

  14. Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations ...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call...

  15. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office FY 2015...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    5 Budget At-A-Glance Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office FY 2015 Budget At-A-Glance Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (WIP) is part of EERE's balanced ...

  16. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office FY 2016...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    KB) More Documents & Publications Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office FY 2017 Budget At-A-Glance Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office FY 2015

  17. Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State...

    Energy Saver

    Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance Program, State Energy Program and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants Monitoring Plan for Weatherization Assistance ...

  18. Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Mentors, Projects Lectures Papers, Reports Photos NSEC CSES Space Weather Summer School Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School June 6 - July 29, 2016 Contacts Director Misa ...

  19. Weather Services International Corporation WSI | Open Energy...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Weather Services International Corporation WSI Jump to: navigation, search Name: Weather Services International Corporation (WSI) Place: Andover, Massachusetts Zip: 1810 Product:...

  20. HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization Assistance HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization Assistance February 23, 2016 - 4:29pm Addthis ...

  1. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Philadelphia...

    Energy Saver

    Philadelphia Success Story Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - ... WPN 11-08: Grant Guidance for Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Grants ...

  2. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Projects | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Innovation Pilot Program Projects Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Projects Projects funded by the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program 90 million under the American ...

  3. Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations ...

    Energy Saver

    Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call Series: ...

  4. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  5. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  6. Weatherization Technical and Management Resources

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The technical and management resources serve as a toolkit for weatherization professionals to access the key program processes, and tools and materials that will assist in the implementation of state and local programs.

  7. Winter Weather Outlook

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    2. Use of a human face as the modeled target. 3. Incorporation of modern heat transfer theory to model heat loss from the body and its surroundings on cold, windy days. 4. A...

  8. Survey and Analysis of Weather Data for Building Energy Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Bhandari, Mahabir S; Shrestha, Som S; New, Joshua Ryan

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, calibrated energy modeling of residential and commercial buildings has gained importance in a retrofit-dominated market. Accurate weather data plays an important role in this calibration process and projected energy savings. It would be ideal to measure weather data at the building location to capture relevant microclimate variation but this is generally considered cost-prohibitive. There are data sources publicly available with high temporal sampling rates but at relatively poor geospatial sampling locations. To overcome this limitation, there are a growing number of service providers that claim to provide real time and historical weather data for 20-35 km2 grid across the globe. Unfortunately, there is limited documentation from 3rd-party sources attesting to the accuracy of this data. This paper compares provided weather characteristics with data collected from a weather station inaccessible to the service providers. Monthly average dry bulb temperature; relative humidity; direct, diffuse and horizontal solar radiation; and wind speed are statistically compared. Moreover, we ascertain the relative contributions of each weather variable and its impact on building loads. Annual simulations are calculated for three different building types, including a closely monitored and automated energy efficient research building. The comparison shows that the difference for an individual variable can be as high as 90%. In addition, annual building energy consumption can vary by 7% while monthly building loads can vary by 40% as a function of the provided location s weather data.

  9. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  10. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    the same way we check the weather each morning, individuals ... Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China and Thailand. ... public health data in one location and use it in another. ...

  11. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  12. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) success stories, news clips, and press releases.

  13. Nevada Weatherizes Large-Scale Complex

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Increased energy efficiency is translating into increased productivity for one Nevada weatherization organization.

  14. Low-Income Weatherization: The Human Dimension

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This presentation focuses on how the human dimension saves energy within low-income weatherization programs.

  15. Arizona Foundation Expands Weatherization Training Center

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Read about one weatherization training center that's looking forward to an onslaught of new trainees.

  16. Weatherization Assistance Program Measures | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Measures Weatherization Assistance Program Measures Weatherization Assistance Program Measures The national weatherization network offers a streamlined delivery system to provide high-quality, energy efficiency services and improvements in single-family homes, manufactured or mobile homes, and multifamily buildings. Professionally trained weatherization crews utilize the most advanced technologies to address energy use and improvements. Crews use computerized energy audits and advanced

  17. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Efficiency | Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency October 31, 2013 - 5:01pm Addthis The Intermountain Weatherization Training Center in Clearfield, Utah. Weatherization Training Centers throughout the nation teach workers valuable skills needed to improve energy efficiency of homes. | Photo courtesy of Intermountain

  18. Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office authorized the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to implement the national evaluation of the Weatherization Assistance Program. This evaluation addressed energy and cost savings, non-energy benefits, program cost-effectiveness, and program operations for program year 2008, called the Retrospective Evaluation, and for program

  19. Explore Careers in Weatherization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization Explore Careers in Weatherization EERE's Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program provides grants, technical assistance, and information tools to the state energy offices of states, local governments, community action agencies, utility companies, tribal governments, and overseas U.S. territories. These programs aim to reduce market barriers to the adoption of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies while also reducing petroleum consumption. EERE's Weatherization

  20. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  1. Weatherization Program Guidance | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Program Guidance Weatherization Program Guidance The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) is governed by various federal regulations designed to help manage and account for the resources provided by DOE. Each year, Congress passes a Weatherization Assistance Program Appropriation. Find active and archived weatherization program notices and memorandums in the table below, which establish the framework for administering WAP funds. Type Topic Weatherization

  2. Response to Weatherization Questions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Response to Weatherization Questions Response to Weatherization Questions August 30, 2010 - 4:53pm Addthis Andy Oare Andy Oare Former New Media Strategist, Office of Public Affairs Last week as part of Vice President Biden's announcement of 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery act, we asked you to send us your questions and comments about the weatherization process. Today, we're following up with answers experts from the Department's Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program: 1) From

  3. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  4. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Energy Saver

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program ...

  5. July 2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting: Maximizing its value for grid integration Introduction The forecasting of power generated by variable energy resources such as wind and solar has been the focus of academic and industrial research and development for as long as significant amounts of these renewable energy resources have been connected to the electric grid. The progress of forecasting capabilities has largely followed the penetration of the respective resources, with wind forecasting

  6. Home Weatherization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Science & Innovation » Energy Efficiency » Homes » Home Weatherization Home Weatherization A home energy audit is the first step to saving energy and money. Our Energy Saver 101 infographic breaks down a home energy audit, explaining what energy auditors look for and the special tools they use to determine where a home is wasting energy. Explore the <a href="/node/714616">full infographic</a> now. A home energy audit is the first step to saving energy and money. Our

  7. Single-Pass Flow-Through Test Elucidation of Weathering Behavior and Evaluation of Contaminant Release Models for Hanford Tank Residual Radioactive Waste

    SciTech Connect

    Cantrell, Kirk J.; Carroll, Kenneth C.; Buck, Edgar C.; Neiner, Doinita; Geiszler, Keith N.

    2013-01-01

    Contaminant release models are required to evaluate and predict long-term environmental impacts of even residual amounts of high-level radioactive waste after cleanup and closure of radioactively contaminated sites such as the DOE’s Hanford Site. More realistic and representative models have been developed for release of uranium, technetium, and chromium from Hanford Site tanks C-202, C-203, and C-103 residual wastes using data collected with a single-pass flow-through test (SPFT) method. These revised models indicate that contaminant release concentrations from these residual wastes will be considerably lower than previous estimates based on batch experiments. For uranium, a thermodynamic solubility model provides an effective description of uranium release, which can account for differences in pore fluid chemistry contacting the waste that could occur through time and as a result of different closure scenarios. Under certain circumstances in the SPFT experiments various calcium rich precipitates (calcium phosphates and calcite) form on the surfaces of the waste particles, inhibiting dissolution of the underlying uranium phases in the waste. This behavior was not observed in previous batch experiments. For both technetium and chromium, empirical release models were developed. In the case of technetium, release from all three wastes was modeled using an equilibrium Kd model. For chromium release, a constant concentration model was applied for all three wastes.

  8. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  9. Weather-Corrected Performance Ratio

    SciTech Connect

    Dierauf, T.; Growitz, A.; Kurtz, S.; Cruz, J. L. B.; Riley, E.; Hansen, C.

    2013-04-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) system performance depends on both the quality of the system and the weather. One simple way to communicate the system performance is to use the performance ratio (PR): the ratio of the electricity generated to the electricity that would have been generated if the plant consistently converted sunlight to electricity at the level expected from the DC nameplate rating. The annual system yield for flat-plate PV systems is estimated by the product of the annual insolation in the plane of the array, the nameplate rating of the system, and the PR, which provides an attractive way to estimate expected annual system yield. Unfortunately, the PR is, again, a function of both the PV system efficiency and the weather. If the PR is measured during the winter or during the summer, substantially different values may be obtained, making this metric insufficient to use as the basis for a performance guarantee when precise confidence intervals are required. This technical report defines a way to modify the PR calculation to neutralize biases that may be introduced by variations in the weather, while still reporting a PR that reflects the annual PR at that site given the project design and the project weather file. This resulting weather-corrected PR gives more consistent results throughout the year, enabling its use as a metric for performance guarantees while still retaining the familiarity this metric brings to the industry and the value of its use in predicting actual annual system yield. A testing protocol is also presented to illustrate the use of this new metric with the intent of providing a reference starting point for contractual content.

  10. 2008 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Market Report

    SciTech Connect

    Doris, E.; Taylor, R.

    2009-07-01

    The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) integrates local needs and interests in order to promote markets for energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE). Its activities are integrative across disparate technologies and market boundaries. In order to analyze the historical performance and forward-looking potential of this broad program, this report assesses market developments and outlooks at the following aggregated levels: states, cities and communities, Indian tribes, and low-income residential efficiency. The analytical goals of the report are to: identify market drivers for EE and RE, paying attention to subsidies, taxes, targets and mandates, environmental policy, energy security, and economic development; assess efficacy of existing policies; discuss challenges and barriers; evaluate high-impact measures for overcoming challenges and barriers; and forecast future market trends.

  11. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  12. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  13. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  14. Weather - Local Information - Radiation Effects Facility / Cyclotron...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Weather Weather in College Station can vary from hot and humid in the summer to cool and dry in the winter. The average high for january is 60 degrees while the average low is 40...

  15. Funding Opportunity Announcement: Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program Funding Opportunity Announcement DE-FOA-00000309 dealing with the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program.

  16. Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    for Non-U.S Citizens Mentors, Projects Lectures Papers, Reports Photos NSEC IGPPS Space Weather Summer School Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School June 6 - July 29, 2016...

  17. New Jersey Training Workers to Weatherize Homes

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    New Jersey is training an army of weatherization workers as the state surges ahead with plans to weatherize 13,000 homes, shrinking bills for low-income residents and creating hundreds of jobs.

  18. More Weatherized Homes for Minnesota Tribe

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization crews across Minnesota are busy replacing old furnaces, sealing air leaks, and weathering stripped doors for people who are at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty line, with priority given to households with elderly or disabled people.

  19. Homes Weatherized by State for Calendar Year 2009 | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    for Calendar Year 2009 Homes Weatherized by State for Calendar Year 2009 PDF icon HomesWeatherizedByStateDec2009.pdf More Documents & Publications TOTALARRAHomesWeatherized...

  20. Homes Weatherized by State March 2010 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    March 2010 Homes Weatherized by State March 2010 Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 03312010 PDF icon HomesWeatherizedbyStateQ12010.pdf ...

  1. Southwest Michigan Community Action Agency … Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Opportunity under the Department of Human Services was responsible for administering ... governments and various nonprofit organizations participating in the Weatherization ...

  2. Mississippi Agency Weatherizing Homes, Creating Jobs

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    One Mississippi Community Action Agency has already doubled their output for weatherized homes from the previous year.

  3. Weatherization Success Stories | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Efficiency » Weatherization Success Stories Weatherization Success Stories The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's (EERE) successes in providing weatherization services for existing residential and multifamily housing with low-income residents reduce energy bills for residents. Explore EERE's weatherization success stories below. September 30, 2016 The Energy Resource Center installed a 2-kilowatt solar PV system at a WAP-eligible home in Colorado Springs. EERE Success

  4. New Hampshire Weatherization Gets a Funding Boost

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Nonprofit weatherization program makes rapid changes to utilize Recovery Act funds and help residents lower energy costs.

  5. Massachusetts on Track with Weatherization Boost

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Massachusetts strives to weatherize 17,000 homes in three years, and hires new workers in the process.

  6. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 16-XX EFFECTIVE DATE:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    6-XX EFFECTIVE DATE: SUBJECT: WEATHERIZATION OF RENTAL UNITS - Applicable to single family and multifamily dwellings PURPOSE: To provide Grantees with updated guidance on weatherizing rental units in the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). DOE has answered specific questions from Grantees related to the weatherization of rental units, whether single family building or multifamily dwellings, over a number of years. However, the responses to these questions have not been put forth in

  7. Weatherization Program Notice 12-1

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 12-1 EFFECTIVE DATE: January 31, 2012 SUBJECT: PROGRAM YEAR 2012 WEATHERIZATION GRANT GUIDANCE PURPOSE: To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization or WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2012. SCOPE: The provisions of this guidance apply to Grantees or other entities named in the Notification of Grant Award as the recipient(s) of financial assistance under the Department of Energy (DOE) WAP. LEGAL AUTHORITY:

  8. ORNL Weatherization Program Evaluation | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Weatherization Program Evaluation AgencyCompany Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory Sector: Energy Focus Area: Buildings Topics: Policiesdeployment programs Website:...

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  10. Multifamily Weatherization Frequently Asked Questions

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Multifamily Weatherization Frequently Asked Questions 1. How do Grantees define a multifamily building? It depends. There is not one all-encompassing definition for multifamily buildings and how they are addressed within WAP. There are nuances related to multifamily eligibility, multifamily auditing, and multifamily reporting that each carry their own definitions.  Eligibility: In order to be eligible for WAP funding, one of the following must be true: o At least 50% of the residential units

  11. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program: Program Overview and Philadelphia Project Highlight (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2012-01-01

    Case Study with WIPP program overview, information regarding eligibility, and successes from Pennsylvania's Commission on Economic Opportunity (CEO) that demonstrate innovative approaches that maximize the benefit of the program. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) recently launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of homes of low-income families. Since 2010, WIPP has helped weatherization service providers as well as new and nontraditional partners leverage non-federal financial resources to supplement federal grants, saving taxpayer money. WIPP complements the Weatherization Assistance program (WAP), which operates nation-wide, in U.S. territories and in three Native American tribes. 16 grantees are implementing weatherization innovation projects using experimental approaches to find new and better ways to weatherize homes. They are using approaches such as: (1) Financial tools - by understanding a diverse range of financing mechanisms, grantees can maximize the impact of the federal grant dollars while providing high-quality work and benefits to eligible low-income clients; (2) Green and healthy homes - in addition to helping families reduce their energy costs, grantees can protect their health and safety. Two WIPP projects (Connecticut and Maryland) will augment standard weatherization services with a comprehensive green and healthy homes approach; (3) New technologies and techniques - following the model of continuous improvement in weatherization, WIPP grantees will continue to use new and better technologies and techniques to improve the quality of work; (4) Residential energy behavior change - Two grantees are rigorously testing home energy monitors (HEMs) that display energy used in kilowatt-hours, allowing residents to monitor and reduce their energy

  12. Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program network. Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect

    Mihlmester, P.E.; Koehler, W.C. Jr.; Beyer, M.A.; Brown, M.A.; Beschen, D.A. Jr.

    1992-02-01

    The Characterization of the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Network was designed to describe the national network of State and local agencies that provide WAP services to qualifying low-income households. The objective of this study was to profile the current WAP network. To achieve the objective, two national surveys were conducted: one survey collected data from 49 State WAP agencies (including the coterminous 48 States and the District of Columbia), and the second survey collected data from 920 (or 81 percent) of the local WAP agencies.

  13. 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act.

  14. U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherized By State through 06/30/2010 (Calendar Year) | Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06/30/2010 (Calendar Year) U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06/30/2010 (Calendar Year) A chart detailling the number of homes that have been weatherized by state. U.S. Department of Energy Weatherization Assistance Program Homes Weatherized By State through 06/30/2010 (Calendar Year)

  15. WPN 05-1: Program Year 2005 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization) for Program Year 2005.

  16. Weatherization Installer/Technician Fundamentals 2.0 - Introduction to

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization | Department of Energy Introduction to Weatherization Weatherization Installer/Technician Fundamentals 2.0 - Introduction to Weatherization Introduction to Weatherization - Complete (2.28 MB) Lesson Plan: Introduction to Weatherization (180.01 KB) PowerPoint: Introduction to Weatherization (2.58 MB) More Documents & Publications Quality Control Inspector 2.0: Introduction to Weatherization for Quality Control Inspectors Energy Auditor - Single Family 2.0: Introduction to

  17. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  18. Program evaluation: Weatherization Residential Assistance Partnership (WRAP) Program

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobson, Bonnie B.; Lundien, Barbara; Kaufman, Jeffrey; Kreczko, Adam; Ferrey, Steven; Morgan, Stephen

    1991-12-01

    The Weatherization Residential Assistance Partnership,'' or WRAP program, is a fuel-blind conservation program designed to assist Northeast Utilities' low-income customers to use energy safely and efficiently. Innovative with respect to its collaborative approach and its focus on utilizing and strengthening the existing low-income weatherization service delivery network, the WRAP program offers an interesting model to other utilities which traditionally have relied on for-profit energy service contractors and highly centralized program implementation structures. This report presents appendices with surveys, participant list, and computers program to examine and predict potential energy savings.

  19. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American ...

  20. July 2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... Those costs comprise fuel costs from expensive generators ... an improved-accuracy forecast of the solar power generation. ... analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power ...

  1. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  2. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  3. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  4. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  5. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  6. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  7. Q&A: Kristen Psaki of WeatherizeDC

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Roughly 20 percent of carbon emissions come from inefficient homes. The DC Project says it has found a way to mitigate emissions and create jobs, a winning combination. WeatherizeDC is the non-profit’s effort to use a community engagement model to help DC residents find green jobs and live a more energy efficient lifestyle.

  8. Weathering the cold of `94. A review of the January 1994 energy supply disruptions in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-01

    This report examines the causes of and responses to the very low temperatures over a wide region of the Eastern US causing unprecedented sustained demand for energy during the week of January 16--22, 1994. The topics of the report include the vagaries of the weather, the North American power supply structure, a chronology of major events of January, natural gas industry operations during peak demand periods, and recommendations for fuel supply, load forecasting, and energy emergency response exercises.

  9. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  10. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  11. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    SciTech Connect

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G.; MacDonald, M.

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  12. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  13. ARM - Lesson Plans: Weather and Climate Statistics

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Weather and Climate Statistics Outreach Home Room News Publications Traditional Knowledge Kiosks Barrow, Alaska Tropical Western Pacific Site Tours Contacts Students Study Hall About ARM Global Warming FAQ Just for Fun Meet our Friends Cool Sites Teachers Teachers' Toolbox Lesson Plans Lesson Plans: Weather and Climate Statistics Objective The objective is to enable students to understand the difference between weather and climate, and to be able to interpret climatic statistics provided.

  14. Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Overview Program Details Local Information Apply Application Process Eligibility Criteria General Information for Applicants Information for Non-U.S Citizens Mentors, Projects Lectures Papers, Reports Photos NSEC » CSES » Space Weather Summer School Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School Summer 2018 Contacts Director Misa Cowee Email Administrative Assistant Lynea Koshar Email Request more information Email Los Alamos Space Weather Summer School 4:05 PLEASE NOTE: The next session will be

  15. Weatherization Assistance Program Quality Work Plan Requirements |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Quality Work Plan Requirements Weatherization Assistance Program Quality Work Plan Requirements Four square graphic of a document, a conversation bubble, a checkbox and a certification seal. The U.S. Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) has introduced a comprehensive Quality Work Plan (QWP) that will establish a benchmark for quality home energy upgrades. This plan defines what is required when federal dollars are used to purchase weatherization

  16. Weatherization Assistance Program | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Program Weatherization Assistance Program The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program provides grants to states, territories, and some Indian tribes to improve the energy efficiency of the homes of low-income families. These governments, in turn, contract with local governments and nonprofit agencies to provide weatherization services to those in need using the latest technologies for home energy upgrades. Since the program began in 1976, DOE has helped improve the

  17. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Contacts | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy You are here Home » About the Office » Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Contacts Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Contacts For information about how the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office is organized, see the organization chart. You can contact the office by email or via postal delivery at: U.S. Department of Energy Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 1000 Independence Ave, SW, Mail Stop EE-2K U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC

  18. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 09-1

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    (8-89) United States Government Department of Energy Memorandum DATE: November 23, 2015 WAP Memorandum 014 REPLY TO ATTN OF: AnnaMaria Garcia, Director Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Office SUBJECT: Multifamily and Rental Draft WPN Request for Comment TO: Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Network This memo serves as an opportunity for WAP Grantees to review and provide comment on two draft Weatherization Program Notices (WPNs) developed by the Department of Energy (DOE). The

  19. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    SciTech Connect

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Diks, Cees G H; Clark, Martyn P

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  20. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  1. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    820946 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories en SEP Success Story: Energy Department Supporting Nevada's Effort to Increase Electric Vehicle Infrastructure...

  2. NEPA Overview for the Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Saver

    A clear understanding of NEPA helps to ensure smooth project implementation and payment by DOE National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) & Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) 5 ...

  3. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office Events ...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    The Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIP) hosts trainings and facilitates peer exchange for state, local, tribal, and K-12 school district leaders. Find...

  4. Weatherization Assistance Available at Florida Pie Shop

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Pie in the Sky, a seemingly simple store that offers customers fresh-baked desserts, is providing a second treat: weatherization.

  5. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 09-1

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    for Weatherization Assistance Program Grantees and Subgrantees dated January 27, 1984. DOE appreciates your attention to these notices and asks the network to provide ...

  6. Chelan County PUD- Residential Weatherization Rebate Program

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Chelan County PUD offers cash rebates to residential customers who make energy efficient weatherization improvements to eligible homes. Eligible measures include efficient windows doors as well as...

  7. Training Program Graduates Weatherization-Ready Workers

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Graduates of Human Capital Development Corporation's (HCDC) First Choice Program aren't just trained in areas of construction, they also can tackle home weatherization services.

  8. Update on Progress: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... into to communities where over 225 ... from King County Counties and cities working together ... Stations Energy Enhances Lives Weatherization Assistance Program 13 The ...

  9. Aging and weathering of cool roofing membranes

    SciTech Connect

    Akbari, Hashem; Berhe, Asmeret A.; Levinson, Ronnen; Graveline,Stanley; Foley, Kevin; Delgado, Ana H.; Paroli, Ralph M.

    2005-08-23

    Aging and weathering can reduce the solar reflectance of cool roofing materials. This paper summarizes laboratory measurements of the solar spectral reflectance of unweathered, weathered, and cleaned samples collected from single-ply roofing membranes at various sites across the United States. Fifteen samples were examined in each of the following six conditions: unweathered; weathered; weathered and brushed; weathered, brushed and then rinsed with water; weathered, brushed, rinsed with water, and then washed with soap and water; and weathered, brushed, rinsed with water, washed with soap and water, and then washed with an algaecide. Another 25 samples from 25 roofs across the United States and Canada were measured in their unweathered state, weathered, and weathered and wiped. We document reduction in reflectivity resulted from various soiling mechanisms and provide data on the effectiveness of various cleaning approaches. Results indicate that although the majority of samples after being washed with detergent could be brought to within 90% of their unweathered reflectivity, in some instances an algaecide was required to restore this level of reflectivity.

  10. Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked...

    Energy Saver

    asked questions in regards to the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout procedures. PDF icon wapcloseoutfaqs.pdf More Documents & Publications WPN 12-3: Closeout...

  11. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Success Stories...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant Program State Energy Program Weatherization ... critical to historic preservation, natural history, wildlife conservation, and education. ...

  12. Interior Regional Housing Authority Energy & Weatherization Program...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy & Weatherization Program A Step Toward Conservation www.IRHA.org About IRHA * The ... DOE Program overview * Project Objective: Develop an energy conservation program relevant ...

  13. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The presentation will review known variability in extreme weather such as excessive heat, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Projections and uncertainties...

  14. Lane Electric Cooperative - Residential and Commercial Weatherization...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Washer: 75 Solar Water Heater: 500 Summary Lane Electric Cooperative offers energy efficient Weatherization Grant Programs to Lane Electric residential and commercial members: a...

  15. Maine Company Growing with Weatherization Work

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Maine's BIOSAFE Environmental Services expands into weatherization, assisting low-income families with their services and creating jobs as business grows.

  16. Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Better Buildings Residential Network Peer Exchange Call Series: Incorporating Weather Data into Energy Savings Calculations, Call Slides and Discussion Summary, February 26, 2015.

  17. Partnership Provides Weatherization to Diverse Crowd

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Two nonprofits in Whatcom County, Washington have teamed up on a unique effort to expand weatherization and energy retrofits – under a program called the Community Energy Challenge.

  18. Connecticut Weatherization Project Improves Lives, Receives National...

    Energy Saver

    The upgrade to the facility also captured a residential energy efficiency award and is an example for other states. With support from the Energy Department's Weatherization ...

  19. Weatherization Assistance Program | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Program Place: Washington, DC Website: http: References: Weatherization Assistance Program1 Information About Partnership with NREL Partnership with NREL Yes Partnership...

  20. Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    More Documents & Publications Microsoft Word - nDE-FOA-0000051.rtf Weatherization Formula Grants - American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) WPN 10-9: Amendment to ...

  1. Idahos Weatherization Assistance Program

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    for each unit prioritized to receive weatherization services. PY 14 Participant Demographics Elderly Disabled Children under 6 PY 14 Participant Resident Status Homeowner...

  2. The Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    ... tracked and summarized performance statistics to identify and address commonly ... Ohio as it transitions its weatherization activities to a post-Recovery Act environment. ...

  3. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  4. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  5. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  6. Frosty Conditions Catalyze Weatherization Solutions: Maine Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    D&R International

    2001-10-10

    Maine demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  7. Weatherization Radiates Energy Savings in Florida: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    D&R International

    2001-10-10

    Florida demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  8. Weatherization Grows in the Green Mountain State (Vermont): Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    D&R International

    2001-10-10

    Vermont demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  9. Weatherization Keeps Washington Green: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    D&R International

    2001-10-10

    Washington demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  10. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  11. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  12. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  13. NEPA Overview for Weatherization Assistance Program Grantees

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) hosted a webinar Aug. 3, 2016, on understanding the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) for WAP grantees. Speakers covered how all projects receiving financial assistance from DOE must be reviewed under NEPA. Understanding NEPA early in a new program year ensures smooth implementation of the Weatherization Assistance Program in your state.

  14. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  15. EnergyPlus Weather Data for use with EnergyPlus Simulation Software

    DOE Data Explorer

    EnergyPlus is simulation software from DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) that models heating, cooling, lighting, ventilating, and other energy flows as well as water in buildings. Because the environment surrounding any building is an important component of the energy choices that go into the building's design and the energy performance of that building thereafter, weather data from all parts of the world are made available through the EnergyPlus web site. The data are collected from more than 2100 locations — 1042 locations in the USA, 71 locations in Canada, and more than 1000 locations in 100 other countries throughout the world. The weather data are arranged by World Meteorological Organization region and Country. In addition to using the weather data via the utility installed automatically with EnergyPlus software, users may view and download EnergyPlus weather data directly using a weather data layer for Google Earth.

  16. EnergyPlus Weather Data for use with EnergyPlus Simulation Software

    DOE Data Explorer

    EnergyPlus is simulation software from DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) that models heating, cooling, lighting, ventilating, and other energy flows as well as water in buildings. Because the environment surrounding any building is an important component of the energy choices that go into the building's design and the energy performance of that building thereafter, weather data from all parts of the world are made available through the EnergyPlus web site. The data are collected from more than 2100 locations 1042 locations in the USA, 71 locations in Canada, and more than 1000 locations in 100 other countries throughout the world. The weather data are arranged by World Meteorological Organization region and Country. In addition to using the weather data via the utility installed automatically with EnergyPlus software, users may view and download EnergyPlus weather data directly using a weather data layer for Google Earth.

  17. Weatherization works: Final report of the National Weatherization Evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, M.A.; Berry, L.G.; Kinney, L.F.

    1994-09-01

    In 1990, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored a comprehensive evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program, the nation`s largest residential energy conservation program. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) managed the five-part study. This document summarizes the findings of the evaluation. Its conclusions are based mainly on data from the 1989 program year (supplemented by data from 1991-92). The evaluation concludes that the Program meets the objectives of its enabling legislation and fulfills its mission statement. Specifically, it (1) saves energy, (2) lowers fuel bills, and (3) improves the health and safety of dwellings occupied by low-income people. In addition, the Program achieves its mission in a cost-effective manner based on each of three perspectives employed by the evaluators. Finally, the evaluation estimates that the investments made in 1989 will, over a 20-year lifetime, save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil, roughly the amount of oil added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in each of the past several years.

  18. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office New Video: Weatherization Assistance Program - 40 Years of Improving Homes and Lives New Video: Weatherization Assistance Program - 40 Years of Improving Homes and Lives Read more Energy Department Driving Clean Energy Development and Sustainable Solutions in 16 States Energy Department Driving Clean Energy Development and Sustainable Solutions in 16 States Read more Weatherization Assistance Program National Evaluation Results Weatherization

  19. Forecasting photovoltaic array power production subject to mismatch losses

    SciTech Connect

    Picault, D.; Raison, B.; Bacha, S.; de la Casa, J.; Aguilera, J.

    2010-07-15

    The development of photovoltaic (PV) energy throughout the world this last decade has brought to light the presence of module mismatch losses in most PV applications. Such power losses, mainly occasioned by partial shading of arrays and differences in PV modules, can be reduced by changing module interconnections of a solar array. This paper presents a novel method to forecast existing PV array production in diverse environmental conditions. In this approach, field measurement data is used to identify module parameters once and for all. The proposed method simulates PV arrays with adaptable module interconnection schemes in order to reduce mismatch losses. The model has been validated by experimental results taken on a 2.2 kW{sub p} plant, with three different interconnection schemes, which show reliable power production forecast precision in both partially shaded and normal operating conditions. Field measurements show interest in using alternative plant configurations in PV systems for decreasing module mismatch losses. (author)

  20. Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

    SciTech Connect

    Wiita, Joanne

    2013-07-30

    The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

  1. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  2. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  3. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  4. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  5. The North Carolina Field Test: Field performance of the preliminary version of an advanced weatherization audit for the Department of Energy`s Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, T.R.

    1994-06-01

    The field performance of weatherizations based on a newly-developed advanced technique for selecting residential energy conservation measures was tested alongside current Retro-Tech-based weatherizations in North Carolina. The new technique is computer-based and determines measures based on the needs of an individual house. In addition, it recommends only those measures that it determines will have a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than 1 for the house being evaluated. The new technique also considers the interaction of measures in computing the benefit-to-cost ratio of each measure. The two weatherization approaches were compared based on implementation ease, measures installed, labor and cost requirements, and both heating and cooling energy savings achieved. One-hundred and twenty houses with the following characteristics participated: the occupants were low-income, eligible for North Carolina`s current weatherization program, and responsible for their own fuel and electric bills. Houses were detached single-family dwellings, not mobile homes; were heated by kerosene, fuel oil, natural gas, or propane; and had one or two operating window air conditioners. Houses were divided equally into one control group and two weatherization groups. Weekly space heating and cooling energy use, and hourly indoor and outdoor temperatures were monitored between November 1989 and September 1990 (pre-period) and between December 1990 and August 1991 (post-period). House consumption models were used to normalize for annual weather differences and a 68{degrees}F indoor temperature. Control group savings were used to adjust the savings determined for the weatherization groups. The two weatherization approaches involved installing attic and floor insulations in near equivalent quantities, and installing storm windows and wall insulation in drastically different quantities. Substantial differences also were found in average air leakage reductions for the two weatherization groups.

  6. Model simulation of the drift and spread of the Aegean Sea oil spill near La Coruna

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel, P.

    1994-12-31

    On the 3 December 1992 the Greek oil tanker Aegean Sea ran aground at Torre de Hercules near the entrance to the Ria de Coruna and La Coruna harbor, Spain. The 291 m tanker of 114,036-dwt carrying 79,096 tons of Brent type crude oil, broke up and exploded. Practically all of the oil was released into the sea. Over 200 km of shore was affected. A two-dimensional depth-integrated model on a .25 ft. x .25 ft. grid was implemented with the capability of predicting wind driven movements in the area of La Coruna. It is driven by meteorological analysis from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRWF) global numerical weather prediction model.

  7. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage contains 72-hr...

  8. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  9. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  10. Simulations of arctic mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with CAM3 and AM2 for M-PACE

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Xie, Shaocheng; Boyle, James; Klein, Stephen A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven

    2008-02-27

    [1] Simulations of mixed-phase clouds in forecasts with the NCAR Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the GFDL Atmospheric Model version 2 (AM2) for the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE) are performed using analysis data from numerical weather prediction centers. CAM3 significantly underestimates the observed boundary layer mixed-phase cloud fraction and cannot realistically simulate the variations of liquid water fraction with temperature and cloud height due to its oversimplified cloud microphysical scheme. In contrast, AM2 reasonably reproduces the observed boundary layer cloud fraction while its clouds contain much less cloud condensate than CAM3 and the observations. The simulation of themore » boundary layer mixed-phase clouds and their microphysical properties is considerably improved in CAM3 when a new physically based cloud microphysical scheme is used (CAM3LIU). The new scheme also leads to an improved simulation of the surface and top of the atmosphere longwave radiative fluxes. Sensitivity tests show that these results are not sensitive to the analysis data used for model initialization. Increasing model horizontal resolution helps capture the subgrid-scale features in Arctic frontal clouds but does not help improve the simulation of the single-layer boundary layer clouds. AM2 simulated cloud fraction and LWP are sensitive to the change in cloud ice number concentrations used in the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process while CAM3LIU only shows moderate sensitivity in its cloud fields to this change. Furthermore, this paper shows that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process is important for these models to correctly simulate the observed features of mixed-phase clouds.« less

  11. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Search for: All records | DOE PAGES

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a ... the ARM variational analysis, ECMWF forecasts, and a multi-scale data assimilation system. ...

  13. Search for: All records | DOE PAGES

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    data assimilation framework using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a ... the ARM variational analysis, ECMWF forecasts, and a multi-scale data assimilation system. ...

  14. Precipitation characteristics of CAM5 physics at mesoscale resolution...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    has recently been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to ... The ETS is a contingency table based met- ric comparing ''the number of correct forecasts ...

  15. Funding Opportunity Announcement: Solar Forecasting 2 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Solar Forecasting 2 Funding Opportunity Announcement: Solar Forecasting 2 Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Number: DE-FOA-0001649 Funding Amount: $10 million Description The Solar Forecasting 2 funding program will support projects that enable grid operators to better forecast how much solar energy will be added to the grid and accelerate the integration of these forecasts into energy management systems used by grid operators and utility companies. These tools will enable grid

  16. Where to Apply for Weatherization Assistance | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Program » Where to Apply for Weatherization Assistance Where to Apply for Weatherization Assistance To apply for weatherization assistance you need to contact your state weatherization agency. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) does not provide weatherization services or services of any kind to individuals. DOE also does not process applications-this process is handled by each state. How to Determine if You Are Eligible for Weatherization Assistance One of the primary factors affecting

  17. States Celebrate National Weatherization Day | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Celebrate National Weatherization Day States Celebrate National Weatherization Day November 4, 2014 - 11:37am Addthis Sates across the nation celebrated Weatherization Day on October 30 with guided tours and Gubernatorial proclamations. In this photo, A team of weatherization technicians perform a site demonstration in Minnesota on Weatherization Day in 2012. | Photo courtesy of WAPTAC. Sates across the nation celebrated Weatherization Day on October 30 with guided tours and Gubernatorial

  18. WPN 16-5: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    5: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION WPN 16-5: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION Effective: May 5, 2016 To provide Grantees with consolidated guidance on previously issued Weatherization Program Notices (WPNs) on weatherizing multifamily buildings in the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). This supersedes WPN 10-7 and WPN 11-9. WPN 16-5: MULTIFAMILY WEATHERIZATION (523.67 KB) WPN Multifamily FAQs 5 5 16.pdf (454.45 KB) More Documents & Publications WAP Memorandum 014: Feedback on Draft Multifamily

  19. Update on Progress: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Update on Progress: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program STEAB Meeting June 8, 2011 LeAnn M. Oliver Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program Weatherization Assistance Program 2 WIP Recovery Act Spending Cumulative Payments Target for June ($ million) Cumulative Payments to Date ($ million) Percent of 50% Spend Goal Reached WAP 3,371.7 2,915.8 86% SEP 1,753.7 1333.7 76% EECBG 1,468.4 1109.1 76% WIP Total 6,593.8 5,358.6 81% June 2011 - 50% Spend Goal Total Recovery Act Spending

  20. Guidance on Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization in an ESPC Guidance on Utility Rate Estimations and Weather Normalization in an ESPC Document explains how to use estimated ...

  1. Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet Test Procedure for UV Weathering Resistance of Backsheet Presented at the PV Module Reliability Workshop, February 26 - 27 ...

  2. Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation Appendix K - GPRA06 Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) Documentation State ...

  3. Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization Clients Effective Energy Behavior Change for Low-Income Weatherization Clients This document contains the transcript ...

  4. Connecticut’s Health Impact Study Rapidly Increasing Weatherization Efforts

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Energy Department’s Weatherization Assistance Program is helping Connecticut reach its weatherization targets by supporting the development and release of the Health Impact Assessment.

  5. WPN 03-5: Weatherization Assistance Program National Recognition Awards

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    To provide criteria and guidelines for the Weatherization Assistance Program's National Recognition Awards being presented at the 2003 National Weatherization Training Conference in Phoenix, Arizona.

  6. EERE Success Story-New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption EERE Success Story-New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption August 21, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis The New York ...

  7. Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing, November 4, 2009 Presentation at the Weatherization Program Deep Dive Briefing, November 4, 2009 U.S. Department of...

  8. WPN 12-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance WPN 12-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance Effective: Dec. 1, 2011 To issue the ...

  9. How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life February 19, 2015 - 4:45pm Addthis The Rocky...

  10. The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves The Sun continually ejects high-energy electrons, protons, and other ...

  11. SERC Community-Based Social Marketing for Weatherization Programs...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Community-Based Social Marketing for Weatherization Programs Webinar SERC Community-Based Social Marketing for Weatherization Programs Webinar A presentation sponsored by the U.S. ...

  12. Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization...

    Energy Saver

    Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization December 9, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis Since ...

  13. WPN 11-4: Guidance Regarding Prioritizing Weatherization Work...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) regarding weatherization of multifamily units. ... WPN 11-13: Documentation Required for Eligible Multifamily Property Listings for Use in ...

  14. CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM CLOSEOUT PROCEDURES FOR RECOVERY ACT GRANTS UNDER THE WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM This...

  15. WPN 11-08: Grant Guidance for Weatherization Innovation Pilot...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program's (Weatherization Innovation or WIPP) Fiscal Year 2010 Grants. WPN 11-08: Grant ...

  16. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet July 2011...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Provides an overview on the U.S. Department of Energys Weatherization Innovation Pilot ... More Documents & Publications Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - ...

  17. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Ohio Success...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Ohio Success Story Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - Ohio Success Story ... More Documents & Publications Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet - ...

  18. Tribal Weatherization Training in the Aleutian and Pribilof Islands

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    entails on-site weatherization, energy conservation education and a home energy and safety ... weatherization, energy conservation education and a home energy and safety review. ...

  19. The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves The space weather threat... and how we protect ourselves The Sun continually ejects high-energy electrons, protons, and ...

  20. WPN 07-1: Program Year 2007 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Low-Income Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization) for Program Year (PY) 2007.

  1. First Steps Towards Tribal Weatherization: Human Capacity Development

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Towards Tribal Weatherization: Human Capacity Development October 2011 October 2011 Cook Inlet Tribal Council's Weatherization Apprenticeship October 2011 March 2010 - March 2012 ...

  2. First Steps Towards Tribal Weatherization: Human Capacity Development

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Steps Towards tribal weatherization: human capacity development October 2010 - Cook Inlet Tribal Council Weatherization Apprenticeship March 2010 February 2012 Cook Inlet Tribal ...

  3. First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization - Human Capacity Development...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Toward Tribal Weatherization - Human Capacity Development (DE-PA36-09GO99022) 2006 All ... Weatherization Training Program Phase 1: Development of human capacity to deliver ...

  4. Cowlitz County PUD- Residential Weatherization Plus Program

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Cowlitz County PUD offers an incentive to residential customers who weatherize their homes. Eligible residences can be either site-built or manufactured homes, but must have a permanently installed...

  5. Kansas City Weatherization Efforts Exceed Goals | Department...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    ... The program is available to those who earn less than 200 percent of the federal poverty level. Kansas City is well on its way to weatherize over 2,000 homes by March 2012. No ...

  6. New York: Weatherizing Westbeth Reduces Energy Consumption |...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... 517.8 Million in Weatherization Funding and Energy Efficiency Grants for New York One Sky Homes, San Jose, CA, Custom Builder, Grand Award Winner. | California prides itself on ...

  7. Idaho Falls Power- Residential Weatherization Loan Program

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Residential customers with permanently installed electric heat who receive service from the City of Idaho Falls, are eligible for 0% weatherization loans. City Energy Service will conduct an energy...

  8. National Ignition Facility wet weather construction plan

    SciTech Connect

    Kugler, A N

    1998-01-01

    This report presents a wet weather construction plan for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) construction project. Construction of the NIF commenced in mid- 1997, and excavation of the site was completed in the fall. Preparations for placing concrete foundations began in the fall, and above normal rainfall is expected over the tinter. Heavy rainfall in late November impacted foundation construction, and a wet weather construction plan was determined to be needed. This wet weather constiction plan recommends a strategy, techniques and management practices to prepare and protect the site corn wet weather effects and allow construction work to proceed. It is intended that information in this plan be incorporated in the Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) as warranted.

  9. Setting the Record Straight on Weatherization

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    How one Associated Press story got the weatherization story wrong by selectively including a few negative anecdotes while avoiding any mention of the great many examples of the program’s growing success.

  10. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  11. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  12. Weatherization Assistance Program History | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    History Weatherization Assistance Program History In 1976, the Weatherization Assistance Program was created under Title IV of the Energy Conservation and Production Act to assist low-income families. Not only has the Program helped millions of families, but the techniques and technologies developed by it over the years helped launch today's home performance industry. 1970s The 1973 oil crisis dramatically affected many Americans. Escalating home heating bills became a heavy burden on household

  13. New Climate Research Centers Forecast Changes and Challenges...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    clouds and aerosols -- tiny particles like soot and dust -- have on weather and climate. ... aerosols -- tiny particles like soot and dust -- have on weather and climate, thereby ...

  14. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (Fact Sheet), Weatherization And Intergovernmental Programs (WIP)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Overview and Philadelphia Project Highlight The Department of Energy (DOE) Offce of Energy Effciency and Renewable Energy (EERE) recently launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy effciency and health and safety of homes of low-income families. Since 2010, WIPP has helped weatherization service providers as well as new and nontraditional partners leverage non-federal fnancial

  15. Application of Improved Radiation Modeling to General Circulation Models

    SciTech Connect

    Michael J Iacono

    2011-04-07

    This research has accomplished its primary objectives of developing accurate and efficient radiation codes, validating them with measurements and higher resolution models, and providing these advancements to the global modeling community to enhance the treatment of cloud and radiative processes in weather and climate prediction models. A critical component of this research has been the development of the longwave and shortwave broadband radiative transfer code for general circulation model (GCM) applications, RRTMG, which is based on the single-column reference code, RRTM, also developed at AER. RRTMG is a rigorously tested radiation model that retains a considerable level of accuracy relative to higher resolution models and measurements despite the performance enhancements that have made it possible to apply this radiation code successfully to global dynamical models. This model includes the radiative effects of all significant atmospheric gases, and it treats the absorption and scattering from liquid and ice clouds and aerosols. RRTMG also includes a statistical technique for representing small-scale cloud variability, such as cloud fraction and the vertical overlap of clouds, which has been shown to improve cloud radiative forcing in global models. This development approach has provided a direct link from observations to the enhanced radiative transfer provided by RRTMG for application to GCMs. Recent comparison of existing climate model radiation codes with high resolution models has documented the improved radiative forcing capability provided by RRTMG, especially at the surface, relative to other GCM radiation models. Due to its high accuracy, its connection to observations, and its computational efficiency, RRTMG has been implemented operationally in many national and international dynamical models to provide validated radiative transfer for improving weather forecasts and enhancing the prediction of global climate change.

  16. The North Carolina Field Test: Field Performance of the Preliminary Version of an Advanced Weatherization Audit for the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, T.R.

    1994-01-01

    The field performance of weatherizations based on a newly-developed advanced technique for selecting residential energy conservation measures was tested alongside current Retro-Tech-based weatherizations in North Carolina. The new technique is computer-based and determines measures based on the needs of an individual house. In addition, it recommends only those measures that it determines will have a benefit-to-cost ratio greater than 1 for the house being evaluated. The new technique also considers the interaction of measures in computing the benefit-to-cost ratio of each measure. The two weatherization approaches were compared based on implementation ease, measures installed, labor and cost requirements, and both heating and cooling energy savings achieved. One-hundred and twenty houses with the following characteristics participated: the occupants were low-income, eligible for North Carolina's current weatherization program, and responsible for their own fuel and electric bills. Houses were detached single-family dwellings, not mobile homes; were heated by kerosene, fuel oil, natural gas, or propane; and had one or two operating window air conditioners. Houses were divided equally into one control group and two weatherization groups. Weekly space heating and cooling energy use, and hourly indoor and outdoor temperatures were monitored between November 1989 and September 1990 (pre-period) and between December 1990 and August 1991 (post-period). House consumption models were used to normalize for annual weather differences and a 68 F indoor temperature. Control group savings were used to adjust the savings determined for the weatherization groups. The two weatherization approaches involved installing attic and floor insulations in near equivalent quantities, and installing storm windows and wall insulation in drastically different quantities. Substantial differences also were found in average air leakage reductions for the two weatherization groups. Average

  17. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    ScienceCinema

    Chu, Sammy; Campanella, Leslie; Sewell, Travis; Gill, Tony; Fransen, Richard; Leuty, Steve; Qualls, Xavier; Bergeron, T.J.; Stewet, Zachary

    2016-07-12

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  18. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  19. Weatherization Plus — Opportunities for the 21st Century

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Millennium Committee Strategy Report for the DOE Weatherization Assistance Program; 15 pp.; April 1999.

  20. Faces of the Recovery Act: National Weatherization Conference

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2010-09-01

    Personal stories from the 2009 National Weatherization Training Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

  1. WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions Presentation |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions Presentation WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions Presentation This presentation contains information on WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions. WIPP Weatherization: Common Errors and Innovative Solutions (3.58 MB) More Documents & Publications Common Errors and Innovative Solutions Transcript Building America Best Practices Series, Vol. 10 - Retrofit Techniques

  2. Result of recent weatherization retrofit projects

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, J.B.; Lipschutz, R.D.; O'Regan, B.; Wagner, B.S.

    1982-07-01

    Pacific Gas and Electric (PG and E) and the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) have conducted studies in their respective service areas in order to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of certain conservation retrofits. Twenty houses in Walnut Creek, California, underwent an infiltration reduction program, similar to house doctoring. Ten of these houses also received additional contractor-installed measures. BPA retrofitted 18 houses at its Midway substation in central Washington. Retrofits made to the houses included: attic and crawlspace insulation, foundation sill caulking, storm windows and doors, increased attic ventilation, and infiltration reduction. Energy consumption and weather data were monitored before and after each set of retrofits in both projects. Leakage measurements were made by researchers from the Energy Efficient Buildings Program using blower door fan pressurization, thereby allowing calculation of heating season infiltration rates. An energy use model correlating energy consumption with outside temperature was developed in order to determine improvements to the thermal conductance of the building envelope as a result of the retrofits. Energy savings were calculated based on the results of the energy use model. As a check on these findings, the Computerized Instrumented Residential Audit (CIRA) load calculation program developed at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory provided a theoretical estimate of the savings resulting from the retrofits. At Midway, storm windows and doors were found to save the most energy. Because the Midway houses were not very leaky at the beginning of the experiment, the infiltration reduction procedures were less effective than expected. In the Walnut Creek project, the infiltration reduction procedures did decrease the leakiness of the test houses, but the effect upon energy savings was not great.

  3. ARM - Campaign Instrument - ecmwfdiag

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Send Campaign Instrument : European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostic Analyses (ECMWFDIAG) Instrument Categories Derived Quantities and Models Campaigns...

  4. Weatherization and Indoor Air Quality: Measured Impacts in Single Family Homes Under the Weatherization Assistance Program

    SciTech Connect

    Pigg, Scott; Cautley, Dan; Francisco, Paul; Hawkins, Beth A; Brennan, Terry M

    2014-09-01

    This report summarizes findings from a national field study of indoor air quality parameters in homes treated under the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). The study involved testing and monitoring in 514 single-family homes (including mobile homes) located in 35 states and served by 88 local weatherization agencies.

  5. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Portal to New Jobs in Home Weatherization (Green Jobs)

    SciTech Connect

    2010-04-01

    Expanding training opportunities in the weatherization of buildings will accelerate learning and provide a direct path for many Americans to find jobs in the clean energy field. The National Weatherization Training Portal (NWTP), which is now in the final stages of testing, features multi-media, interactive, self-paced training modules.

  6. EERE Success Story-Connecticut: Bridgeport Multifamily Weatherization |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Connecticut: Bridgeport Multifamily Weatherization EERE Success Story-Connecticut: Bridgeport Multifamily Weatherization November 8, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis EERE's Weatherization Assistance Program weatherized a multifamily facility in Bridgeport, Connecticut, that provides safe housing for individuals, veterans, and the homeless received weatherization; the services performed have saved the facility nearly $7,000 in annual energy costs. Because the state had not yet

  7. States Celebrate National Weatherization Day | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    States Celebrate National Weatherization Day States Celebrate National Weatherization Day November 25, 2015 - 12:20pm Addthis West Plains, Missouri, Mayor Jack Pahlmann issued a proclamation recognizing National Weatherization Day on Oct. 30. Here, the Mayor (in sport coat and red shirt) presents his proclamation at a West Plains home undergoing weatherization. Weatherization funding for the home comes, in part, from the U.S. Department of Energy. West Plains, Missouri, Mayor Jack Pahlmann

  8. The History and Evolution of America's Weatherization Network |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy The History and Evolution of America's Weatherization Network The History and Evolution of America's Weatherization Network August 19, 2016 - 1:19pm Addthis John Coggin John Coggin Communications Specialist, Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Emiley Mallory Emiley Mallory Communications Specialist, Weatherization Assistance Program What are the key facts? This month marks the 40th anniversary of the Energy Department's Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP),

  9. State Energy Program & Weatherization Assistance Program: Update

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    eere.energy.gov AnnaMaria Garcia Acting Program Manager for DOE's Weatherization & Intergovernmental Program Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program State Energy Program & Weatherization Assistance Program: Update STEAB 2012 Conference March 14, 2012 Weatherization Assistance Program WIP Recovery Act Spending Total Recovery Act Spending As of March 5, 2012 2 Program Amount Allocated Cumulative Payments to Date ($ million) Percent of Total Goal Reached Weatherization Assistance

  10. WPN 14-1 Program Year 2014 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 14-1 EFFECTIVE DATE: February 25, 2014 SUBJECT: PROGRAM YEAR 2014 WEATHERIZATION GRANT GUIDANCE This guidance includes the following sections: 1.0 Purpose; 2.0 Program Priorities and Initiatives; 3.0 Funding; 4.0 Applications for WAP Annual Formula Grants 5.0 Weatherization Program Policy Notices; and, 6.0 Website Information. 1.0 PURPOSE To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization or WAP) for Program

  11. The Global Positioning System constellation as a space weather monitor. Comparison of electron measurements with Van Allen Probes data

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Morley, Steven K.; Sullivan, John P.; Henderson, Michael G.; Blake, J. Bernard; Baker, Daniel N.

    2016-02-06

    Energetic electron observations in Earth's radiation belts are typically sparse, and multipoint studies often rely on serendipitous conjunctions. This paper establishes the scientific utility of the Combined X-ray Dosimeter (CXD), currently flown on 19 satellites in the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation, by cross-calibrating energetic electron measurements against data from the Van Allen Probes. By breaking our cross calibration into two parts—one that removes any spectral assumptions from the CXD flux calculation and one that compares the energy spectra—we first validate the modeled instrument response functions, then the calculated electron fluxes. Unlike previous forward modeling of energetic electron spectra, wemore » use a combination of four distributions that together capture a wide range of observed spectral shapes. Moreover, our two-step approach allowed us to identify, and correct for, small systematic offsets between block IIR and IIF satellites. Using the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer and Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope on Van Allen Probes as a “gold standard,” here we demonstrate that the CXD instruments are well understood. A robust statistical analysis shows that CXD and Van Allen Probes fluxes are similar and the measured fluxes from CXD are typically within a factor of 2 of Van Allen Probes at energies inline image4 MeV. Our team present data from 17 CXD-equipped GPS satellites covering the 2015 “St. Patrick's Day” geomagnetic storm to illustrate the scientific applications of such a high data density satellite constellation and therefore demonstrate that the GPS constellation is positioned to enable new insights in inner magnetospheric physics and space weather forecasting.« less

  12. Ocean-ice/oil-weathering computer program user's manual. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Kirstein, B.E.; Redding, R.T.

    1987-10-01

    The ocean-ice/oil-weathering code is written in FORTRAN as a series of stand-alone subroutines that can easily be installed on most any computer. All of the trial-and-error routines, integration routines, and other special routines are written in the code so that nothing more than the normal system functions such as EXP are required. The code is user-interactive and requests input by prompting questions with suggested input. Therefore, the user can actually learn about the nature of crude oil and oil weathering by using this code. The ocean-ice oil-weathering model considers the following weathering processes: evaporation; dispersion (oil into water); moussee (water into oil); and spreading; These processes are used to predict the mass balance and composition of oil remaining in the slick as a function of time and environmental parameters.

  13. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  14. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Energy Saver

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by ...

  15. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  16. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  17. Healthy Housing Opportunities During Weatherization Work

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, J.; Tohn, E.

    2011-03-01

    In the summer and early fall of 2010, the National Center for Healthy Housing interviewed people from a selection of state and local agencies that perform weatherizations on low-income housing in order to gauge their approach to improving the health and safety of the homes. The interviews provided a strong cross section of what work agencies can do, and how they go about funding this work when funds from the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) do not cover the full extent of the repairs. The report also makes recommendations for WAP in how to assist agencies to streamline and maximize the health and safety repairs they are able to make in the course of a standard weatherization.

  18. Integration of space weather into space situational awareness

    SciTech Connect

    Reeves, Geoffrey D

    2010-11-09

    Rapid assessment of space weather effects on satellites is a critical step in anomaly resolution and satellite threat assessment. That step, however, is often hindered by a number of factors including timely collection and delivery of space weather data and the inherent com plexity of space weather information. As part of a larger, integrated space situational awareness program, Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed prototype operational space weather tools that run in real time and present operators with customized, user-specific information. The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) focuses on the penetrating radiation environment from natural or nuclear-produced radiation belts. The penetrating radiation environment is highly dynamic and highly orbit-dependent. Operators often must rely only on line plots of 2 MeV electron flux from the NOAA geosynchronous GOES satellites which is then assumed to be representative of the environment at the satellite of interest. DREAM uses data assimilation to produce a global, real-time, energy dependent specification. User tools are built around a distributed service oriented architecture (SOA) which will allow operators to select any satellite from the space catalog and examine the environment for that specific satellite and time of interest. Depending on the application operators may need to examine instantaneous dose rates and/or dose accumulated over various lengths of time. Further, different energy thresholds can be selected depending on the shielding on the satellite or instrument of interest. In order to rapidly assess the probability that space weather was the cause of anomalous operations, the current conditions can be compared against the historical distribution of radiation levels for that orbit. In the simplest operation a user would select a satellite and time of interest and immediately see if the environmental conditions were typical, elevated, or extreme based on how often those

  19. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  20. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  1. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at the desired locations in the United States. More accurate solar

  2. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  3. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  4. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  5. 1990 Weatherization Assistance Program monitoring. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Samuels, L.S.

    1992-06-19

    The fiscal year 1990 DOE weatherization programs were monitored in Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The focus of the monitoring was on a total of 18 subgrantees. Separate reports on the monitoring completed on each site was submitted as well as the final summary report for each state. The scope of monitoring consisted of a review of current contracts, budgets, program operating procedures, staffing, inventory control, financial and procurement procedures, review of client files and audit reports, inspection of completed dwelling units and assessment of monitoring, training, and technical assistance provided by the grantees. A random sampling of completed units were selected and visits were made to inspect these weatherized dwellings.

  6. Reformulated Gasoline Complex Model

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Table 2. Statutory Baseline Fuel Compositions * Simple Model ... Related EIA Short-Term Forecast Analysis Products * RFG ... * Demand, Supply, and Price Outlook for Reformulated ...

  7. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  8. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic Using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Cassano, John

    2013-06-30

    The primary research task completed for this project was the development of the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). This involved coupling existing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land models using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) coupler (CPL7). RACM is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) ocean model, the CICE sea ice model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land model. A secondary research task for this project was testing and evaluation of WRF for climate-scale simulations on the large pan-Arctic model domain used in RACM. This involved identification of a preferred set of model physical parameterizations for use in our coupled RACM simulations and documenting any atmospheric biases present in RACM.

  9. Illinois and Texas Towns See Weatherization Boost

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    “It cropped about a hundred bucks off my bill in the cold, cold winter,” says Springfield resident Donald Dagget, a 78-year-old retired beauty salon owner who had his 1937, two-bedroom bungalow weatherized in October.

  10. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  11. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  12. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  13. ARM - Publications: Science Team Meeting Documents: Assessing physical

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    processes in the ECMWF model forecasts through the ARM SGP site measurements Assessing physical processes in the ECMWF model forecasts through the ARM SGP site measurements Neggers, Roel European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Cheinet, Sylvain ECMWF (UK) Beljaars, Anton ECMWF Koehler, M European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Viterbo, Pedro ECMWF In this study, we compare

  14. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (Fact Sheet), Weatherization And Intergovernmental Programs (WIP)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    People Working Cooperatively The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Offce of Energy Effciency and Renewable Energy (EERE) launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy effciency and health and safety of low-income homes. WIPP has worked with new service provid- ers, as well as nontraditional partners, to leverage non-federal fnancial resources to supplement federal grants and save

  15. Weatherization and Workforce Guidelines for Home Energy Upgrades (Fact Sheet), Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs (WIP)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    INTERGOVERNMENTAL PROGRAMS Weatherization and Workforce Guidelines for Home Energy Upgrades Improved Quality, Better Training March 2011 The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program has developed Workforce Guidelines for Home Energy Upgrades to foster the growth of a high-quality home energy retroft industry and a skilled and cre- dentialed workforce. Public and private retroft programs nationwide may adopt the guidelines to increase the consistency and effectiveness of

  16. Science on the Hill: Why space weather matters

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Why space weather matters Science on the Hill: Why space weather matters Many people think of space as a silent, empty void and the sun as a distant source of light and heat. Not ...

  17. Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold February 25, 2014 - 9:49am Addthis Make sure your car is ready for spring snowstorms. | Photo...

  18. Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold | Department of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold Improving Fuel Economy When the Weather's Cold February 25, 2014 - 9:49am Addthis Make sure your car is ready for spring snowstorms....

  19. HUD Data on Properties Eligible for Weatherization Assistance

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization Assistance Program guidance to states, Indian tribes, and overseas U.S. territories regarding HUD data on properties eligible for weatherization ser

  20. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  1. WPN 12-1: Program Year 2012 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2012.

  2. WPN 03-1: Program Year 2003 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2003.

  3. Message from Michael Maier: Winter Weather Operations Review | Jefferson

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Lab Michael Maier: Winter Weather Operations Review Message from Michael Maier: Winter Weather Operations Review TO: All JSA Employees and Users FROM: Michael W. Maier, Chief Operating Officer DATE: November 8, 2016 SUBJECT: WINTER WEATHER OPERATIONS REVIEW As we approach winter it is time to review the Jefferson Lab winter weather operations procedures. The purpose of this note is to summarize, and in some cases clarify, our existing procedures so all employees, supervisors, and users have

  4. #AskEnergySaver: Weatherization | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization #AskEnergySaver: Weatherization November 25, 2014 - 12:23pm Addthis This month our experts answered your #AskEnergySaver questions on weatherization. | Image courtesy of Sarah Gerrity, Energy Department. This month our experts answered your #AskEnergySaver questions on weatherization. | Image courtesy of Sarah Gerrity, Energy Department. Allison Lantero Allison Lantero Digital Content Specialist, Office of Public Affairs Looking for more ways to save energy? Check out Energy Saver

  5. About the Weatherization Assistance Program | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization Assistance Program » About the Weatherization Assistance Program About the Weatherization Assistance Program The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their residential homes, while ensuring their health and safety. It is the nation's largest single residential whole-house energy efficiency program. The Program's primary purpose, established by law, is: "...to

  6. WPN 04-1: Program Year 2004 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2004.

  7. WPN 14-1: Program Year 2014 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2014.

  8. WPN 16-1: Program Year 2016 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for Program Year (PY) 2016.

  9. Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout Frequently Asked Questions

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This document provides a list of frequently asked questions in regards to the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) Closeout procedures.

  10. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization services are cost-effective, energy efficiency emasures for existing residential and multifamily housing with income-eligible residents.

  11. Solar Ramping Distributions over Multiple Timescales and Weather Patterns (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Hummon, M.; Orwig, K.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of ramping, solar power, and weather patterns in operational systems.

  12. Weatherization Assistance Program Success Stories | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Assistance Program Success Stories Weatherization Assistance Program Success Stories These success stories include EERE Blog entries for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program. How to Save Energy, Money with Home Energy Upgrades Make your home more energy efficient. Weatherization Assistance Program: Spurring Innovation, Increasing Home Energy Efficiency The Weatherization Assistance Program has developed technical certifications, training programs, and new methods

  13. Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money Weatherization Saves Families Energy and Money October 30, 2013 - 12:00am Addthis By Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency Dr. Kathleen Hogan On October 30, communities throughout the nation will celebrate National Weatherization Day, which recognizes an industry of weatherization service providers, state and local agencies, and researchers dedicated to improving the energy efficiency of homes throughout the nation. It is also a day to

  14. Department of Energy Joins States to Celebrate National Weatherization Day

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    | Department of Energy Joins States to Celebrate National Weatherization Day Department of Energy Joins States to Celebrate National Weatherization Day October 30, 2014 - 1:00pm Addthis Participants watch a weatherization demonstration in Vermont, including techniques for the proper installation of a blower door. | Photo Courtesy of Capstone Community Action in Vermont Participants watch a weatherization demonstration in Vermont, including techniques for the proper installation of a blower

  15. EERE Success Story-How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Jasmine's Life | Department of Energy How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life EERE Success Story-How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life January 6, 2016 - 11:06am Addthis The Rocky Mountain Youth Corps' Jasmine Ramero found a new career in weatherization with help from the Energy Department.| Photo courtesy of Rocky Mountain Youth Corps. The Rocky Mountain Youth Corps' Jasmine Ramero found a new career in weatherization with help from the

  16. Getting It Right: Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Are Good Investments

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    | Department of Energy Getting It Right: Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Are Good Investments Getting It Right: Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Are Good Investments August 10, 2015 - 4:30pm Addthis Getting It Right: Weatherization and Energy Efficiency Are Good Investments Dr. Kathleen Hogan Dr. Kathleen Hogan Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency A working paper released in June by academics with the E2e Project wrongly suggested that the federal Weatherization

  17. HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization Assistance |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization Assistance HUD Multifamily Property Listings Eligible for Weatherization Assistance February 23, 2016 - 4:29pm Addthis Housing and Urban Development (HUD) multifamily properties eligible for weatherization assistance. On January 25, 2010, the Department of Energy (DOE) implemented rule 71-CFR-3847 for its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). Under the rule, if a public housing, assisted multi-family or Low

  18. How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life How the Weatherization Assistance Program Changed Jasmine's Life February 19, 2015 - 4:45pm Addthis The Rocky Mountain Youth Corps' Jasmine Ramero found a new career in weatherization with help from the Energy Department.| Photo courtesy of Rocky Mountain Youth Corps The Rocky Mountain Youth Corps' Jasmine Ramero found a new career in weatherization with help from the Energy Department.| Photo courtesy of Rocky

  19. Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization December 9, 2013 - 9:37am Addthis Improving Energy Efficiency and Creating Jobs Through Weatherization David Danielson Former Assistant Secretary for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy KEY FACTS Since 2009, more than 1.1 million homes throughout the country have been weatherized More than 15,000 additional workers

  20. Cook Inlet Tribal Council, Inc.- 2010 Weatherization Project

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to native people by native people in the Cook Inlet region.

  1. Tribal Energy System Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    | Department of Energy System Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Tribal Energy System Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather This U.S. Department of Energy Office of Indian Energy report assesses climate change and extreme weather vulnerabilities specific to tribal energy infrastructure and systems in the contiguous United States and Alaska. It includes information about the impacts from climate change and extreme weather events on both onsite and offsite

  2. WPN 02-1: Program Year 2002 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2002.

  3. Celebrating 40 Years of America's Weatherization Assistance Program |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Celebrating 40 Years of America's Weatherization Assistance Program Celebrating 40 Years of America's Weatherization Assistance Program August 15, 2016 - 10:10am Addthis The Energy Department's Weatherization Assistance Program services every political subdivision in the country through a network of 59 grantees: 50 states, the District of Columbia, five U.S. territories, and three select Native American tribes. The Energy Department's Weatherization Assistance Program

  4. More than Just an Energy Efficiency Program, Weatherization Ensures Health

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    and Safety | Department of Energy More than Just an Energy Efficiency Program, Weatherization Ensures Health and Safety More than Just an Energy Efficiency Program, Weatherization Ensures Health and Safety October 25, 2016 - 1:16pm Addthis Emiley Mallory Emiley Mallory Communications Specialist, Weatherization Assistance Program What are the key facts? Before any weatherization activities take place, crews are required to first look for health and safety measures such as carbon monoxide

  5. WPN 00-1- Program Year 2000 Weatherization Grant Guidance

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue grant guidance and management information for the low-income Weatherization Assistance Program for Program Year 2000.

  6. HUD Data on Properties Eligible for Weatherization Assistance

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    HUD Data on Properties Eligible for Weatherization Assistance Updated April 26, 2010 Background On January 25, 2010, the Department of Energy (DOE) implemented a new rule for its Weatherization Assistance Program ("weatherization program"). 1 Under the new rule, if a public housing, assisted multi- family or Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) building is identified by HUD and included on a list published by DOE, that building meets DOE's weatherization program income requirements

  7. WPN 16-4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy 4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance WPN 16-4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance Effective: Dec. 17, 2015 To issue updated monitoring policy and procedures for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). WPN 16-4: Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance (422.19 KB) Grantee PM Checklist (519.85 KB) Subgrantee Checklist (254.08 KB) Grantee Programmatic Management Changes (614.68 KB) Subgrantee Checklist Changes (433.97

  8. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program Fact Sheet July 2011

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program The Department of Energy (DOE) Offce of Energy Effciency and Renewable Energy (EERE) recently launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy effciency and health and safety in homes of low-income families. Since 2010, this program has helped weatherization service providers as well as new and nontraditional partners leverage non-federal

  9. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  10. Materials Exposure Testing Market Expands with Ultra-Accelerated Weathering

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    System | NREL Materials Exposure Testing Market Expands with Ultra-Accelerated Weathering System In this video, NREL researchers Gary Jorgenson and Carl Bingham discuss the NREL-developed, ultra-accelerated weathering system and its ability to revolutionize the weathering industry

  11. 200,000 homes weatherized under the Recovery Act

    ScienceCinema

    Zoi, Cathy

    2013-05-29

    Today Vice President Biden announced that the Weatherization Assistance Program has weatherized 200,000 homes under the Recovery Act. We're taking your questions and comments right now on weatherization. Join in the conversation! *Facebook -- http://www.facebook.com/energygov *Twitter -- http://www.twitter.com/energy

  12. WPN 12-5: Updated Weatherization Assistance Program Monitoring Guidance

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    To issue the updated monitoring policy and procedures for the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) for both annual Appropriated awards and for the Recovery Act awards, which includes the Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers (SERC) Awards. This updated Guidance excludes the Weatherization Innovative Pilot Program (WIPP) and Weatherization Training Centers (WTC).

  13. Weatherization Training: What Does it Take?

    Energy Saver

    of Energy Memorandum 016: Multifamily Housing - HUD Lists Weatherization Memorandum 016: Multifamily Housing - HUD Lists Effective: May 31, 2016 This memorandum serves to transmit updated information to the WAP network on current buildings identified by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and published by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) that meet certain income eligibility requirements and may meet other WAP requirements without the need for further evaluation or

  14. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 09-1C

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-19 EFFECTIVE DATE: September 22, 2010 SUBJECT: GUIDANCE FOR GRANT AMENDMENTS FOR THE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY RESOURCES FOR CONSUMERS FUNDING PURPOSE: To issue guidance for the Grantees who need to complete grant amendments based on the receipt of funding to undertake Sustainable Energy Resources for Consumers (SERC) projects. SCOPE: The provisions of this guidance apply to States or other entities named as recipients of SERC Grants funding within the Department of

  15. WEATHERIZATION PROGRAM NOTICE 10-13A

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    0-13A EFFECTIVE DATE: SEPTEMBER 29, 2010 SUBJECT: ARRA REPORTING REQUIREMENTS: OMB QUARTERLY AND DOE MONTHLY REPORTING REQUIREMENTS UNDER THE AMERICAN RECOVERY AND REINVESTMENT ACT OF 2009 FOR THE WEATHERIZATION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM REFERENCES: (1) OMB Memorandum M-09-21 Implementing Guidance for the Reports on the Use of Funds Pursuant to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, June 22 nd , 2009. (2) OMB Memorandum M-10-08 Updated Guidance on the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

  16. Radiative Heating Profiles in the Convective Tropics: A Comparison of Observations and Models

    SciTech Connect

    McFarlane, Sally A.; Mather, Jim H.; Ackerman, Thomas P.

    2005-01-10

    Radiative heating is one of the principal drivers of tropical circulation. While we have good knowledge of radiative fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere and at specific surface sites, observations of atmospheric profiles of radiative heating, particular in cloudy conditions, have been largely unavailable. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program has begun a program to compute radiative heating profiles routinely at its observational sites at Nauru and Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, using observed and retrieved inputs of water vapor and condensed water phase, particle size, and mass. The accuracy of these profiles can be assessed by comparing the calculated TOA and surface fluxes with observations. We have computed radiative heating profiles every 20 minutes for several months at each of these two sites in the 1999-2000 time period, which represent a unique dataset for model comparison. Here, we compare this dataset to model output from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) analysis, the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0) and the Multi-Scale Modeling Framework (MMF). These three models, all run using observed SST for this comparison, provide an interesting range of resolution from the 4 km cloud resolving model in the MMF to the approximately 280 km grid-scale of the CAM and a contrast between forecasting and climate models. In general, the model results fail to capture the structure of the observed heating in the upper troposphere because of their failure to simulate cirrus and stratiform cloud adequately.

  17. Real-Time Weather Data Access Guide: Updated February 2006

    SciTech Connect

    Long, N.

    2006-03-01

    The format of the weather data received from the National Weather Service is extremely inconvenient for building engineers to read, especially for trending historical data; therefore, a weather parsing program was created by NREL building engineers to simplify the data. The weather-parsing program collects current weather conditions for over 4,000 sites around the world and allows access to the data via a web page designed by NREL building researchers. The database provides data for some locations from late 1998 through today. Users can request data to be sent to them via e-mail by using the interactive web page.

  18. Weatherization Assistance Program - Background Data and Statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2010-03-01

    This technical memorandum is intended to provide readers with information that may be useful in understanding the purposes, performance, and outcomes of the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Weatherization Assistance Program (Weatherization). Weatherization has been in operation for over thirty years and is the nation's largest single residential energy efficiency program. Its primary purpose, established by law, is 'to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings owned or occupied by low-income persons, reduce their total residential energy expenditures, and improve their health and safety, especially low-income persons who are particularly vulnerable such as the elderly, the handicapped, and children.' The American Reinvestment and Recovery Act PL111-5 (ARRA), passed and signed into law in February 2009, committed $5 Billion over two years to an expanded Weatherization Assistance Program. This has created substantial interest in the program, the population it serves, the energy and cost savings it produces, and its cost-effectiveness. This memorandum is intended to address the need for this kind of information. Statistically valid answers to many of the questions surrounding Weatherization and its performance require comprehensive evaluation of the program. DOE is undertaking precisely this kind of independent evaluation in order to ascertain program effectiveness and to improve its performance. Results of this evaluation effort will begin to emerge in late 2010 and 2011, but they require substantial time and effort. In the meantime, the data and statistics in this memorandum can provide reasonable and transparent estimates of key program characteristics. The memorandum is laid out in three sections. The first deals with some key characteristics describing low-income energy consumption and expenditures. The second section provides estimates of energy savings and energy bill reductions that the program can reasonably be presumed to be producing. The third section

  19. Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center

    SciTech Connect

    Robert Adams

    2009-01-07

    The following is a synopsis of the major achievements attributed to the operation of the Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center (WAPTAC) by the National Association for State Community Services Programs (NASCSP). During the past five years, the WAPTAC has developed into the premier source for information related to operating the Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) at the state and local levels. The services provide through WAPTAC include both virtual technical support as well as hands-on training and instruction in classroom and in the field. The WAPTAC achieved several important milestones during its operation including the establishment of a national Weatherization Day now celebrated in most states, the implementation of a comprehensive Public Information Campaign (PIC) to raise the awareness of the Program among policy makers and the public, the training of more than 150 new state managers and staff as they assume their duties in state offices around the country, and the creation and support of a major virtual information source on the Internet being accessed by thousands of staff each month. The Weatherization Assistance Program Technical Assistance Center serves the Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program as a valuable training and technical assistance resource for the network of 54 direct state grantees (50 states, District of Columbia and three Native American tribes) and the network of 900 local subgrantees (comprised of community action agencies, units of local government, and other non-profit organizations). The services provided through WAPTAC focus on standardizing and improving the daily management of the WAP. Staff continually identify policies changes and best practices to help the network improve its effectiveness and enhance the benefits of the Program for the customers who receive service and the federal and private investors. The operations of WAPTAC are separated into six

  20. Wind speed forecasting in the central California wind resource area

    SciTech Connect

    McCarthy, E.F.

    1997-12-31

    A wind speed forecasting program was implemented in the summer seasons of 1985 - 87 in the Central California Wind Resource Area (WRA). The forecasting program is designed to use either meteorological observations from the WRA and local upper air observations or upper air observations alone to predict the daily average windspeed at two locations. Forecasts are made each morning at 6 AM and are valid for a 24 hour period. Ease of use is a hallmark of the program as the daily forecast can be made using data entered into a programmable HP calculator. The forecasting program was the first step in a process to examine whether the electrical energy output of an entire wind power generation facility or defined subsections of the same facility could be predicted up to 24 hours in advance. Analysis of the results of the summer season program using standard forecast verification techniques show the program has skill over persistence and climatology.

  1. Atmospheric dispersion modeling: Challenges of the Fukushima Daiichi response

    SciTech Connect

    Sugiyama, Gayle; Nasstrom, John; Pobanz, Brenda; Foster, Kevin; Simpson, Matthew; Vogt, Phil; Aluzzi, Fernando; Homann, Steve

    2012-05-01

    In this research, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) provided a wide range of predictions and analyses as part of the response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident including: daily Japanese weather forecasts and atmospheric transport predictions to inform planning for field monitoring operations and to provide U.S. government agencies with ongoing situational awareness of meteorological conditions; estimates of possible dose in Japan based on hypothetical U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission scenarios of potential radionuclide releases to support protective action planning for U.S. citizens; predictions of possible plume arrival times and dose levels at U.S. locations; and source estimation and plume model refinement based on atmospheric dispersion modeling and available monitoring data.

  2. The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF VERSION 3.1

    SciTech Connect

    Brioude, J.; Arnold, D.; Stohl, A.; Cassiani, M.; Morton, Don; Seibert, P.; Angevine, W. M.; Evan, S.; Dingwell, A.; Fast, Jerome D.; Easter, Richard C.; Pisso, I.; Bukhart, J.; Wotawa, G.

    2013-11-01

    The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was originally designed for cal- culating long-range and mesoscale dispersion of air pollutants from point sources, such as after an accident in a nuclear power plant. In the meantime FLEXPART has evolved into a comprehensive tool for atmospheric transport modeling and analysis at different scales. This multiscale need from the modeler community has encouraged new developments in FLEXPART. In this document, we present a version that works with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteoro- logical model. Simple procedures on how to run FLEXPART-WRF are presented along with special options and features that differ from its predecessor versions. In addition, test case data, the source code and visualization tools are provided to the reader as supplementary material.

  3. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf] campaign was scheduled to take place from 15 July

  4. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf] campaign was scheduled to take place from 15 July

  5. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  6. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association Team roster: Dan Paikowsky, Management; Christian Bain, Entrepreneurship; Noah Meunier, Mechanical Engineering &

  7. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC). Begin Module >> (471

  8. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  9. Final Project Report: Release of aged contaminants from weathered sediments: Effects of sorbate speciation on scaling of reactive transport

    SciTech Connect

    Jon Chorover, University of Arizona; Peggy O'????Day, University of California, Merced; Karl Mueller, Penn State University; Wooyong Um, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Carl Steefel, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

    2012-10-01

    Hanford sediments impacted by hyperalkaline high level radioactive waste have undergone incongruent silicate mineral weathering concurrent with contaminant uptake. In this project, we studied the impact of background pore water (BPW) on strontium, cesium and iodine desorption and transport in Hanford sediments that were experimentally weathered by contact with simulated hyperalkaline tank waste leachate (STWL) solutions. Using those lab-weathered Hanford sediments (HS) and model precipitates formed during nucleation from homogeneous STWL solutions (HN), we (i) provided detailed characterization of reaction products over a matrix of field-relevant gradients in contaminant concentration, PCO2, and reaction time; (ii) improved molecular-scale understanding of how sorbate speciation controls contaminant desorption from weathered sediments upon removal of caustic sources; and (iii) developed a mechanistic, predictive model of meso- to field-scale contaminant reactive transport under these conditions.

  10. Development and Testing of a Life Cycle Model and a Parameterization of Thin Mid-level Stratiform Clouds

    SciTech Connect

    Krueger, Steven K.

    2008-03-03

    We used a cloud-resolving model (a detailed computer model of cloud systems) to evaluate and improve the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models used for numerical weather prediction and climate modeling. We also used observations of the atmospheric state, including clouds, made at DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program's Climate Research Facility located in the Southern Great Plains (Kansas and Oklahoma) during Intensive Observation Periods to evaluate our detailed computer model as well as a single-column version of a global atmospheric model used for numerical weather prediction (the Global Forecast System of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction). This so-called Single-Column Modeling approach has proved to be a very effective method for testing the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models. The method relies on detailed observations of the atmospheric state, including clouds, in an atmospheric column comparable in size to a grid column used in a global atmospheric model. The required observations are made by a combination of in situ and remote sensing instruments. One of the greatest problems facing mankind at the present is climate change. Part of the problem is our limited ability to predict the regional patterns of climate change. In order to increase this ability, uncertainties in climate models must be reduced. One of the greatest of these uncertainties is the representation of clouds and cloud processes. This project, and ARM taken as a whole, has helped to improve the representation of clouds in global atmospheric models.

  11. Data Products from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Covering the MAGIC AMF2 Deployment

    DOE Data Explorer

    Ahlgrimm, Maike

    2015-04-02

    ECMWF derived diagnostic variables over MAGIC's ship path from Los Angeles, CA and Honolulu, HI. Two dimensional (time and height) slices were extracted once the ship's exact positions were known.

  12. Obama Administration Delivers More Than $66 Million for Weatherization Programs in Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut and Hawaii

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Recovery Act funding to expand weatherization assistance programs, create jobs and weatherize approximately 26,300 homes

  13. Obama Administration Delivers More than $63 Million for Weatherization Programs in Indiana and New Mexico

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Recovery Act funding to expand weatherization assistance programs, create jobs and weatherize more than 22,400 homes

  14. Obama Administration Delivers More than $453 Million for Weatherization Programs in 15 States

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Recovery Act funding to expand weatherization assistance programs, create jobs and weatherize more than 165,000 homes

  15. Obama Administration Delivers More than $304 Million for Weatherization Programs in Georgia, Illinois and New York

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Recovery Act funding to expand weatherization assistance programs, create jobs and weatherize more than 85,000 homes

  16. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addthis Related Articles DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Publishes Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  19. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  20. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...