National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for outlook forecast evaluation

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  2. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2014...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of 2014 and Prior Reference Case Projections March 2015 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy ...

  3. Energy consumption and expenditure projections by population group on the basis of the annual energy outlook 1999 forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Poyer, D.A.; Balsley, J.H.

    2000-01-07

    This report presents an analysis of the relative impact of the base-case scenario used in Annual Energy Outlook 1999 on different population groups. Projections of energy consumption and expenditures, as well as energy expenditure as a share of income, from 1996 to 2020 are given. The projected consumption of electricty, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas during this period is also reported for each population group. In addition, this report compares the findings of the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 report with the 1998 report. Changes in certain indicators and information affect energy use forecasts, and these effects are analyzed and discussed.

  4. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  5. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2015 2 * The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts warmer summer temperatures ...

  7. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    SciTech Connect

    1993-08-06

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  8. Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-01

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  9. Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2014

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    4 1 January 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts for 2015. After falling to the...

  10. Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2014

    Annual Energy Outlook

    This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2014 2 Global ...

  11. Microsoft Word - Hurricane Outlook.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    ... Outlook issued on May 27, 2010. They project 14 to 23 named storms will form within ... natural gas production are difficult to forecast, primarily because of the uncertainty ...

  12. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Summer 2013 Outlook for...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Electric bill and price data are not adjusted for ... June 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook. Forecast -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% ... resulting from fuel costs often occur more ...

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts ... to an average of 2.72gal in 2016. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term ...

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    6 1 October 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Forecast highlights Winter Fuels Outlook  EIA projects average U.S. household expenditures for natural gas, heating oil, electricity, and propane will increase this winter (October 1 through March 31) compared with last winter. Based on projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), forecast temperatures this winter, measured using heating degree days, are 3% warmer than the previous 10-year average but colder

  16. Short-term energy outlook, Annual supplement 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-25

    This supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short- Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. Chap. 2 analyzes the response of the US petroleum industry to the recent four Federal environmental rules on motor gasoline. Chap. 3 compares the EIA base or mid case energy projections for 1995 and 1996 (as published in the first quarter 1995 Outlook) with recent projections made by four other major forecasting groups. Chap. 4 evaluates the overall accuracy. Chap. 5 presents the methology used in the Short- Term Integrated Forecasting Model for oxygenate supply/demand balances. Chap. 6 reports theoretical and empirical results from a study of non-transportation energy demand by sector. The empirical analysis involves the short-run energy demand in the residential, commercial, industrial, and electrical utility sectors in US.

  17. Short-Term Outlook for Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids - Energy Information...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    and Other Liquids Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ... Forecast Changes (PDF) Special Analysis Price Uncertainty Full report Short-Term Outlook ...

  18. Energy Markets Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Markets Outlook For National Association for Business Economics March 7, 2016 | Washington, D.C. By Adam Sieminski, Administrator Forecast -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1 2017-Q1 Implied stock change and balance (right axis) World production (left axis) World consumption (left axis) world supply and demand million barrels per day implied stock change million barrels per day Global oil inventories are forecast to continue

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2013

    Annual Energy Outlook

    1 June 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights * After increasing to 119 per ... in 2013 and to 3.37 per gallon in 2014. Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and ...

  20. Short-term energy outlook quarterly projections. First quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-07

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short- term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets.

  1. Assumptions to Annual Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administration

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Analysis & Projections Glossary › FAQS › Overview Projection Data Monthly short-term forecasts through the next calender year Annual projections to 2040 International projections All projections reports Analysis & Projections Major Topics Most popular Annual Energy Outlook related Congressional & other requests International Energy Outlook related Presentations Recurring Short-Term Outlook Related Special outlooks Testimony All reports Browse by Tag Alphabetical Frequency Tag

  2. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting Preprint J. Zhang, B.-M. Hodge, and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory S. Lu and H. F. Hamann IBM TJ Watson Research Center V. Banunarayanan U.S. Department of Energy To be presented at 3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems London, England October 21 - 22, 2013 Conference Paper NREL/CP-5500-60142 October 2013 NOTICE The submitted manuscript has been offered by an employee of the

  3. International energy outlook 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-07-01

    The International Energy Outlook 1994 (IEO94) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets between 1990 and 2010. The report is provided as a statistical service to assist energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. These forecasts are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Depart. of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c). The IEO94 projections are based on US and foreign government policies in effect on October 1, 1993-which means that provisions of the Climate Change Action Plan unveiled by the Administration in mid-October are not reflected by the US projections.

  4. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202). The feature article for this issue is Demand, Supply and Price Outlook for Reformulated Gasoline, 1995.

  5. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the second quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates.

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Coal Supply, Demand, and Prices

    Reports and Publications

    2016-01-01

    The coal module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of U.S. production, consumption, imports, exports, inventories, and prices.

  7. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2005 Short-Term Energy Outlook - Regional Enhancements Starting with this edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA is introducing regional projections (the scope of which will vary by fuel) of energy prices, consumption, and production. The addition of regional data and forecasts will allow us to examine regional fuel demands and prices, regional fuel inventory trends, the interaction between regional electricity demand shifts, and regional

  8. Canadian gas exports in the U.S. market: 1995 evaluation and outlook

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-31

    The report summarizes data and information relating to the North American natural gas industry including supply (US, Canada, regional), demand (focusing on US sectoral demand), prices, and transportation capacities. Section 1 presents a review of industry events in 1995 and section 2 contains forecasts to the year 2000. Section 3 reviews regulatory developments which affect current and future exports of Canadian natural gas, including rolled-in versus incremental tolling, unbundling of local distribution companies, policies on market-based rates, and incentive regulation. The appendix summarizes the current electric industry restructuring process in the United States.

  9. Canadian gas exports in the U. S. market: 1995 evaluation and outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1996-01-01

    The report summarizes data and information relating to the North American natural gas industry including supply (US, Canada, regional), demand (focusing on US sectoral demand), prices, and transportation capacities. Section 1 presents a review of industry events in 1995 and section 2 contains forecasts to the year 2000. Section 3 reviews regulatory developments which affect current and future exports of Canadian natural gas, including rolled-in versus incremental tolling, unbundling of local distribution companies, policies on market-based rates, and incentive regulation. The appendix summarizes the current electric industry restructuring process in the United States.

  10. Key Milestones/Outlook

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Key Milestones/Outlook per the Department of Energy 2015 Congressional Budget Request, Environmental Management, March 2014

  11. August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    August 2012 1 August 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook Highlights  EIA projects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average about $103 per barrel during the second half of 2012, about $3.50 per barrel higher than in last month's Outlook. The forecast Brent crude oil spot price falls to an average of $100 per barrel in 2013. The projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price discount to Brent crude oil narrows from about $14 in the third quarter of 2012 to $9 by late 2013.

  12. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  13. Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-02-17

    The Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 is a companion document to the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO). Supplement tables provide the regional projections underlying the national data and projections in the AEO. The domestic coal, electric power, commercial nuclear power, end-use consumption, and end-use price tables present AEO forecasts at the 10 Federal Region level. World coal tables provide data and projections on international flows of steam coal and metallurgical coal, and the oil and gas tables provide the AEO oil and gas supply forecasts by Oil and Gas Supply Regions and by source of supply. All tables refer to cases presented in the AEO, which provides a range of projections for energy markets through 2010.

  14. Annual Energy Outlook 2016

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    LA-1 U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2016 AB 32 California Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 ACEEE American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy ACP alternative compliance payment AEO Annual Energy Outlook AEO2016 Annual Energy Outlook 2016 ACU atmospheric cracking unit API American Petroleum Institute ARRA American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ASHRAE American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air- Conditioning Engineers ATPZEV

  15. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections. Second quarter 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-02

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent projections with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the first quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

  16. Annual Energy Outlook2014

    Annual Energy Outlook

    For further information . . . The Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of John J. Conti...

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    4 1 October 2014 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights EIA ... than last winter (see EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook ...

  18. Oil and natural gas market outlook and drivers

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    American Foundry Society May 18, 2016 | Washington, DC by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator world supply and demand million barrels per day implied stock change million barrels per day AFS | Oil and natural gas market outlook and drivers, May 18, 2016 Global supply has consistently exceeded demand since the start of 2014; EIA forecasts a return to market balance in the second half of 2017 Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2016 2 Forecast -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 82 84 86 88 90 92

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    March 2015 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights North Sea Brent crude oil ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2015 2 ...

  20. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review - Energy Information

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Administration ‹ Analysis & Projections Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review Release Date: March 25, 2015 | Next Release Date: April 2017 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0640(2014) Evaluation of 2014 and Prior Reference Case Projections The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) produces projections of energy production, consumption and prices each year in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). Each year, EIA also produces an AEO Retrospective Review document, which presents a

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    Reports and Publications

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model

    Reports and Publications

    2011-01-01

    The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids Supply and Demand

    Reports and Publications

    2015-01-01

    The hydrocarbon gas liquids (ethane, propane, butanes, and natural gasoline) module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of U.S. production, consumption, refinery inputs, net imports, and inventories.

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model

    Reports and Publications

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  5. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model

    Reports and Publications

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 Census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  6. China Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    I N E S E A C A D E M Y O F S O C I A L S C I E N C E S China Energy Outlook 2020 2014-7-15 Washington DC World Energy China Outlook | Xiaojie Xu and Chen Tangsi | ...

  7. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Outlook Release Date: November 8, 2016 | Next Release Date: December 6, 2016 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Forecasts All Highlights Prices Global Liquid Fuels U.S. Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Notable Forecast Changes Markets review Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Price Viewer Supplements Feature Articles Summer Fuels Outlooks Winter Fuels

  8. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  9. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  10. Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1994-03-01

    This report is a companion document to the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94), (DOE/EIA-0383(94)), released in Jan. 1994. Part I of the Supplement presents the key quantitative assumptions underlying the AEO94 projections, responding to requests by energy analysts for additional information on the forecasts. In Part II, the Supplement provides regional projections and other underlying details of the reference case projections in the AEO94. The AEO94 presents national forecasts of energy production, demand and prices through 2010 for five scenarios, including a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices. These forecasts are used by Federal, State, and local governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors.

  11. Tribal Economic Outlook Conference

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hosted by Northern Arizona University, the Tribal Economic Outlook Conference will preview the conditions that will impact business and economy in the year ahead. Hear what the experts are predicting for 2016 at the tribal, state, and local level.

  12. Energy Market Outlook

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Presentation covers the Federal Utility Partnership Working Group Energy Market Outlook: Helping Customers Meet Their Diverse Energy Goals, held on May 22-23, 2013 in San Francisco, California.

  13. Annual Energy Outlook 2015

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.gov, 202586-2222), ...

  14. International Energy Outlook 2014

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    band is very wide 2 WTI price dollars per barrel Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2015 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct...

  15. International Energy Outlook 2014

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    band is very wide 2 WTI price dollars per barrel Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2015 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct...

  16. International Energy Outlook 2016

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    484(2016) I May 2016 International Energy Outlook 2016 ~ Independent Statistics & Ana[ysis e~ ~* a~ 1 U.S. ~~ergy. Information Administration Contacts The International Energy Outlook 2016 was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) under the direction of John Conti, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis (john.conti@eia.gov, 202-586-2222); Paul Holtberg, Team Leader, Analysis Integration Team (paul.holtberg@eia.gov, 202-586-1284); Jim Diefenderfer, Director, Office

  17. Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1995-02-01

    This section of the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 present the major assumptions of the modeling system used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95). In this context, assumptions include general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are most significant in formulating the model results. Detailed documentation of the modeling system is available in a series of documentation reports listed in Appendix B. A synopsis of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), the model components, and the interrelationships of the modules is presented. The NEMS is developed and maintained by the office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide projection of domestic energy-economy markets in the midterm time period and perform policy analyses requested by various government agencies and the private sector.

  18. International energy outlook 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-05-01

    This International Energy Outlook presents historical data from 1970 to 1993 and EIA`s projections of energy consumption and carbon emissions through 2015 for 6 country groups. Prospects for individual fuels are discussed. Summary tables of the IEO96 world energy consumption, oil production, and carbon emissions projections are provided in Appendix A. The reference case projections of total foreign energy consumption and of natural gas, coal, and renewable energy were prepared using EIA`s World Energy Projection System (WEPS) model. Reference case projections of foreign oil production and consumption were prepared using the International Energy Module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Nuclear consumption projections were derived from the International Nuclear Model, PC Version (PC-INM). Alternatively, nuclear capacity projections were developed using two methods: the lower reference case projections were based on analysts` knowledge of the nuclear programs in different countries; the upper reference case was generated by the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES)--a demand-driven model. In addition, the NEMS Coal Export Submodule (CES) was used to derive flows in international coal trade. As noted above, foreign projections of electricity demand are now projected as part of the WEPS. 64 figs., 62 tabs.

  19. Biodiesel Outlook - An Engine Manufacturer's Perspective | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Outlook - An Engine Manufacturer's Perspective Biodiesel Outlook - An Engine ... More Documents & Publications Biodiesel ASTM Update and Future Technical Needs Recent ...

  20. Summer_Gas_Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    ... resellers. d Average pump price for regular gasoline. d ... The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term ... based on DRIMcGraw-Hill Forecast CONTROL0301. Prices The ...

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  2. Annual energy outlook 1995, with projections to 2010

    SciTech Connect

    1995-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95) presents the midterm energy forecasts of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This year`s report presents projections and analyses of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2010, based on results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Quarterly forecasts of energy supply and demand for 1995 and 1996 are published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (February 1995). Forecast tables for the five cases examined in the AEO95 are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendix A gives historical data and forecasts for selected years from 1992 through 2010 for the reference case. Appendix B presents two additional cases, which assume higher and lower economic growth than the reference case. Appendix C presents two cases that assume higher and lower world oil prices. Appendix D presents a summary of the forecasts in units of oil equivalence. Appendix E presents a summary of household energy expenditures. Appendix F provides detailed comparisons of the AEO95 forecasts with those of other organizations. Appendix G briefly describes NEMS and the major AEO95 forecast assumptions. Appendix H presents a stand-alone high electricity demand case. Appendix 1 provides a table of energy conversion factors and a table of metric conversion factors. 89 figs., 23 tabs.

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    5 1 October 2015 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights EIA ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook ...

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    June 2014 1 June 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights North Sea Brent ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2014 2 Global ...

  5. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    April 2015 1 April 2015 Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook (STEO) ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook April ...

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. Crude oil prices fell ... Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2003. 0 10 20 30 40 ...

  7. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2005 2005 Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook Update (Figure 1) A considerable break in the expected strength of near-term crude oil prices has resulted in a lower forecast for retail gasoline prices this spring. Gasoline prices may well have seen their peak for the year, barring sharp disruptions in crude oil supply or refinery operations. Pump prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.17 per gallon, still high by historical standards

  8. Annual Energy Outlook

    Reports and Publications

    2015-01-01

    The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. For the first time, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is presented as a shorter edition under a newly adopted two-year release cycle. With this approach, full editions and shorter editions of the AEO will be produced in alternating years. This approach will allow EIA to focus more resources on rapidly changing energy markets both in the United States and internationally, and to consider how they might evolve over the next few years.

  9. International energy outlook 2005

    SciTech Connect

    2005-07-01

    This report presents international energy projections through 2025, prepared by the Energy Information Administration. The outlooks for major energy fuels are discussed, along with electricity, transportation, and environmental issues. After a chapter entitled 'Highlights', the report begins with a review of world energy and an economic outlook. The IEO2005 projections cover a 24 year period. The next chapter is on world oil markets. Natural gas and coal reserves and resources, consumption and trade discussed. The chapter on electricity deals with primary fuel use for electricity generation, and regional developments. The final section is entitled 'Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions'.

  10. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  11. Annual energy outlook 1994: With projections to 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94) presents the midterm energy forecasts of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This year`s report presents projects and analyses of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2010, based for the first time on results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the latest in a series of computer-based energy modeling systems used over the past 2 decades by EIA and its predecessor organization, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze and forecast energy consumption and supply in the midterm period (about 20 years). Quarterly forecasts of energy supply and demand for 1994 and 1995 are published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (February 1994). Forecast tables for 2000, 2005, and 2010 for each of the five scenarios examined in the AEO94 are provided in Appendices A through E. The five scenarios include a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices. Appendix F provides detailed comparisons of the AEO94 forecasts with those of other organizations. Appendix G briefly described the NEMS and the major AEO94 forecast assumptions. Appendix H summarizes the key results for the five scenarios.

  12. Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 10, 2012 |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy 0, 2012 Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 10, 2012 September 12, 2012 - 11:16am Addthis The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the National Association of State Energy Officials are hosting the 2012 - 2013 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on Wednesday, October 10, 2012 in Washington, DC. This important supply and demand forecast event will

  13. Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 12, 2011 |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy 2, 2011 Registration Open for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 12, 2011 September 19, 2011 - 4:55pm Addthis The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the National Association of State Energy Officials invite you to participate in the 2011 - 2012 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference. This important supply and demand forecast event will be held on Wednesday, October 12,

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    EIA modifies Short-Term Energy Outlook format to expand analysis of current oil and natural gas markets Beginning with the October 13, 2016 publication, the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) includes several format changes based on the customer feedback from a December 2015 online survey. All forecast tables and charts will continue to be published monthly with the same level of detail. EIA has modified the analysis text and navigation of the STEO website to increase the focus on current

  15. International Energy Outlook 2016-World energy demand and economc outlook -

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Energy Information Administration Analysis & Projections International Energy Outlook 2016 Release Date: May 11, 2016 | Next Release Date: September 2017 | | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2016) Chapter 1. World energy demand and economic outlook print version Overview The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case projects significant growth in worldwide energy demand over the 28-year period from 2012 to 2040. Total world consumption of marketed energy expands from 549

  16. International energy outlook 2006

    SciTech Connect

    2006-06-15

    This report presents international energy projections through 2030, prepared by the Energy Information Administration. After a chapter entitled 'Highlights', the report begins with a review of world energy and economic outlook, followed by energy consumption by end-use sector. The next chapter is on world oil markets. Natural gas, world coal market and electricity consumption and supply are then discussed. The final chapter covers energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

  17. Long-Term U.S. Energy Outlook: Different Perspectives

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Paul Holtberg, Moderator April 26, 2011 | Washington, D.C. Long-Term U.S. Energy Outlook: Different Perspectives Speakers 2 Paul Holtberg, 2011 EIA Energy Conference Washington, D.C., April 26, 2011 * John Conti, Assistant Administrator of Energy Analysis, Energy Information Administration * Mark Finley, General Manager, Global Energy Markets and U.S. Economics, BP * Douglas Meade, Director of Research, INFORUM Forecasts/projections and uncertainty 3 Paul Holtberg, 2011 EIA Energy Conference

  18. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Winter Fuels Outlook October 2016 1 October 2016 Winter Fuels Outlook For the purposes of this outlook, EIA considers the winter season to run from October through March. The average household winter heating fuel expenditures discussed in this supplement are a broad guide to changes compared with recent winters. Fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on the size and energy efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, along with thermostat settings, local

  19. EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2016

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Full Release Date: September 15, 2016 | Next Early Release Date: January 2017 | full report Overview Data Reference Case Side Cases Interactive Table Viewer By Section Issues in Focus Market Trends Executive Summary Legislation and Regulations Comparison with Other Projections Appendices Annual Energy Outlook 2016 presents yearly projections and analysis of energy topics Download the AEO2016 Report Projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) focus on the

  20. International Energy Outlook 2014

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Household heating bills expected to be higher than last winter, mainly driven by colder weather U.S. households are expected to pay higher heating bills this winter compared to last winter mainly because the weather is forecast to be colder than the relatively mild weather seen last winter and fuel prices are forecast to be higher. In its new forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said households using heating oil will see a 38% jump in their heating fuel expenditures while propane

  1. 2015 Trilateral Energy Outlook Project

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    2015 Trilateral Energy Outlook Project December 2015 Prepared by: The National Energy Board Canada Secretara de Energa de Mxico U.S. Energy Information Administration 2015 ...

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2015 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquids Global liquids production continues to outpace consumption, ...

  3. Natural Gas Winter Outlook 2000-2001

    Reports and Publications

    2000-01-01

    This article is based on the Winter Fuels Outlook published in the 4th Quarter Short-Term Energy Outlook and discusses the supply and demand outlook from October 2000 through March 2001.

  4. Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - Appendix A

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Table A15. Coal supply, disposition, and prices ...

  5. Short Term Energy Outlook ,October 2002

    Annual Energy Outlook

    October 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook October 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: ... Energy Information AdministrationShort-Term Energy Outlook -- October 2002 2 The OPEC ...

  6. Annual Energy Outlook 2016

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), under the direction of John J. Conti (john.conti@eia.gov, 202/586-2222), Assistant Administrator of Energy Analysis; Paul D. Holtberg (paul.holtberg@ eia.gov, 202/586-1284), Team Leader, Analysis Integration Team, O ce of Integrated and International Energy Analysis; James R. Diefenderfer (jim.diefenderfer@eia.gov, 202/586-2432), Director, O ce of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables

  7. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review

    Reports and Publications

    2015-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review provides a yearly comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous Annual Energy Outlooks (AEO) beginning with 1982. This edition of the report adds the AEO 2012 projections and updates the historical data to incorporate the latest data revisions.

  8. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  9. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, second quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the first quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the second quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). 34 figs., 19 tabs.

  10. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-02-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the fourth quarter of 1995, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook.

  11. International energy outlook 1999

    SciTech Connect

    1999-03-01

    This report presents international energy projections through 2020, prepared by the Energy Information Administration. The outlooks for major energy fuels are discussed, along with electricity, transportation, and environmental issues. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. The historical time frame begins with data from 1970 and extends to 1996, providing readers with a 26-year historical view of energy demand. The IEO99 projections covers a 24-year period. The next part of the report is organized by energy source. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in the five fuel chapters, along with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. The third part of the report looks at energy consumption in the end-use sectors, beginning with a chapter on energy use for electricity generation. New to this year`s outlook are chapters on energy use in the transportation sector and on environmental issues related to energy consumption. 104 figs., 87 tabs.

  12. International energy outlook 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    The International Energy Outlook 1998 (IEO98) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2020. Projections in IEO98 are displaced according to six basic country groupings. The industrialized region includes projections for four individual countries -- the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Japan -- along with the subgroups Western Europe and Australasia (defined as Australia, New Zealand, and the US Territories). The developing countries are represented by four separate regional subgroups: developing Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. China and India are represented in developing Asia. New to this year`s report, country-level projections are provided for Brazil -- which is represented in Central and South America. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU) are considered as a separate country grouping. The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand. Regional consumption projections for oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and renewable energy (hydroelectricity, geothermal, wind, solar, and other renewables) are presented in five fuel chapters, with a review of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Summary tables of the IEO98 projections for world energy consumption, carbon emissions, oil production, and nuclear power generating capacity are provided in Appendix A. 88 figs., 77 tabs.

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: November 8, 2016 | Next Release Date: December 6, 2016 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Forecasts All Highlights Prices Global Liquid Fuels U.S. Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Notable Forecast Changes Markets review Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Price Viewer Supplements Feature

  14. Assumptions and Expectations for Annual Energy Outlook 2015: Oil and Gas Working Group

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Assumptions and Expectations for Annual Energy Outlook 2016: Oil and Gas Working Group AEO2016 Oil and Gas Supply Working Group Meeting Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis December 1, 2015| Washington, DC http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/ WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE We welcome feedback on our assumptions and documentation * The AEO Assumptions report http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: November 8, 2016 | Next Release Date: December 6, 2016 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Forecasts All Highlights Prices Global Liquid Fuels U.S. Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Notable Forecast Changes Markets review Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Price Viewer Supplements Feature

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: November 8, 2016 | Next Release Date: December 6, 2016 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Forecasts All Highlights Prices Global Liquid Fuels U.S. Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Notable Forecast Changes Markets review Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Price Viewer Supplements Feature

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    ‹ Analysis & Projections Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: November 8, 2016 | Next Release Date: December 6, 2016 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Glossary › FAQS › Forecasts All Highlights Prices Global Liquid Fuels U.S. Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Electricity Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Notable Forecast Changes Markets review Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Price Viewer Supplements Feature

  18. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, third quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in January, April, July, and October in the Outlook. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Values for the second quarter of 1996, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the third quarter 1996 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service.

  19. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, first quarter 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-01-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1998 through the fourth quarter of 1999. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the first quarter 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 24 figs., 19 tabs.

  20. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  1. International Energy Outlook 2013

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9 U.S. Energy Information Administration | International Energy Outlook 2013 High Oil Price case projections Table D1. World total primary energy consumption by region, High Oil Price case, 2009-2040 (quadrillion Btu) Region History Projections Average annual percent change, 2010-2040 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 OECD OECD Americas 117.0 120.2 119.5 124.2 128.2 131.8 136.7 144.7 0.6 United States a 94.9 97.9 96.0 99.4 100.9 101.4 103.0 107.3 0.3 Canada 13.7 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.3 16.4

  2. International Energy Outlook 2016 - Energy Information Administration

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    International Energy Outlook 2016 Release Date: May 11, 2016 | Next Release Date: September 2017 | | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2016) Preface International Energy Outlook 2014 cover. The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2016 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015). IEO2016 is

  3. International Energy Outlook 2016 - Energy Information Administration

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    International Energy Outlook 2016 Release Date: May 11, 2016 | Next Release Date: September 2017 | | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0484(2016) Preface International Energy Outlook 2014 cover. The International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2040. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2016 are consistent with those published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015). IEO2016 is

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model

    Reports and Publications

    2011-01-01

    The other petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products

  5. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

    Reports and Publications

    2013-01-01

    The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

  6. Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Reports and Publications

    2010-01-01

    Beginning with the December 2010 issue of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present natural gas consumption forecasts for the residential and commercial sectors that are consistent with recent changes to the Form EIA-857 monthly natural gas survey.

  7. Instructions for using HSPD-12 Authenticated Outlook Web Access...

    Energy Saver

    Instructions for using HSPD-12 Authenticated Outlook Web Access (OWA) Instructions for using HSPD-12 Authenticated Outlook Web Access (OWA) Provides instructions for remote Outlook...

  8. Energy Outlook for the Transport Sector | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Outlook for the Transport Sector Energy Outlook for the Transport Sector Energy Outlook for the Transport Sector PDF icon deer10karsner.pdf More Documents & Publications The ...

  9. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    will average 4.77MMBtu in 2014 and 4.50MMBtu in 2015. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2014 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquids EIA ...

  10. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Global oil inventory builds in the third quarter U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2015 2 of 2015 averaged 1.6 million bd, down from 2.0 ...

  11. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    EIA projects end-of-October stocks will be 3,919 Bcf, 121 Bcf (3.2%) more than the five-year average. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2015 2 ...

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2016 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels EIA estimates that global petroleum and other liquid fuels ...

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2014 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquids EIA's world oil balance is virtually unchanged from last month's ...

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    1 December 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights North Sea Brent crude oil ... winter are expected to help lessen U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term ...

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    (833Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook iuarterly Projections August 1983 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. 20585 t rt jrt- .ort- iort- iort- iort- nort- lort- '.ort- ...

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... in 2017, compared with an average of 2.63MMBtu in 2015. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2016 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels EIA ...

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    0.4 million bd lower, respectively, than in July's STEO. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook August 2015 2 Natural gas working inventories were ...

  18. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average 3.34million British U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2015 2 thermal units ...

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    3.68 per MMBtu in 2013 and 3.84 per MMBtu in 2014. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2013 2 Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels ...

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    This would be the second-highest injection season on record. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2015 2 Low natural gas prices in recent ...

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... in 2017, compared with an average of 2.63MMBtu in 2015. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2016 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels EIA ...

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    3.69 per MMBtu in 2013 and 3.78 per MMBtu in 2014. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook December 2013 2 Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Total ...

  3. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  4. Short-Term Outlook for Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids

    Reports and Publications

    2016-01-01

    U.S. liquid fuels production increased from 7.43 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2008 to 13.75 million b/d in 2015. However, the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects liquid fuels production to decline to 12.99 million b/d in 2017, mainly as a result of prolonged low oil prices. The liquid fuels production forecast reflects a 1.24 million b/d decline in crude oil production by 2017 that is partially offset by a 450,000 b/d increase in the production of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL)—a group of products including ethane, propane, butane (normal and isobutane), natural gasoline, and refinery olefins. This analysis will discuss the outlook for each of these four HGL streams and related infrastructure projects through 2017.

  5. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  6. Annual energy outlook, 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-02-11

    The forecast summary highlights the principal components of the Energy Information Administration's projections of energy supply, demand, and prices. Key issues are addressed for each of the major energy markets (petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity), along with the developments anticipated for end-use energy consumption and new technologies. The overview lists the principal conclusions followed by discussions of the important elements of the projections. This information revises production forecasts for 1986, 1987, and 1988, but its effect on later years should be much less, because some portion of the production fall amounts to production delays (Table 1). Lower well completions and delayed work-overs remove production from significantly sized wells, but little of this production is lost permanently. To the extent that higher prices encourage higher development activity, well completions and work-overs should resume at a more normal level. In the short run, shut-in wells, which are mostly marginal stripper wells, can also be returned to production. With the liberalization of State and Federal regulations on when shut-in wells must be permanently abandoned, a window of about one year exists during which these stripper wells can be restored. Some of these wells will never resume production, but with prices in the $18 plus range, most will again be economic.

  7. Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Reports and Publications

    2016-01-01

    Short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2015 for the United States and international oil forecasts.

  8. Outlook optimistic for 1997 E and P industry

    SciTech Connect

    Popov, S.

    1997-01-01

    The ninth annual Arthur Andersen Oil and Gas Industry Outlook Survey of company executives` forecasts for the US exploration and production industry were presented last month at the 17th Annual Energy Symposium. The consulting firm surveyed the chief financial officers of more than 350 US E and P companies, with 92 companies responding, including 8 majors, 9 large and 75 small independents. Overall, top E and P company executives predict 1997 to be a healthy year for the oil and gas industry. The paper discusses demand and supply, oil and gas prices, capital spending, employment, rig counts and availability, problems and opportunities.

  9. April 2013 Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    and Summer Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights  During the April-through-September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.63 per gallon. The projected monthly average regular retail gasoline price falls from $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.56 per gallon in 2013 and $3.39 per gallon in 2014, compared with $3.63 per gallon in 2012. The July 2013 New York harbor

  10. INFOGRAPHIC: Offshore Wind Outlook | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    INFOGRAPHIC: Offshore Wind Outlook INFOGRAPHIC: Offshore Wind Outlook December 12, 2012 - 2:15pm Addthis According to a new report commissioned by the Energy Department, a U.S. ...

  11. Short Term Energy Outlook, December 2002

    Annual Energy Outlook

    December 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook December 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: ... Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2002. 0 10 20 30 ...

  12. Short Term Energy Outlook, March 2003

    Annual Energy Outlook

    3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. February crude oil ... Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2003. 0 10 20 30 40 ...

  13. Short Term Energy Outlook, February 2003

    Annual Energy Outlook

    3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. World oil markets ... Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2003. 0 10 20 30 ...

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2014

    Annual Energy Outlook

    4 1 February 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights Temperatures east of the ... U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2014 2 Global ...

  15. Short Term Energy Outlook ,November 2002

    Annual Energy Outlook

    November 2002 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook November 2002 Overview World Oil Markets: During ... Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2002. 0 10 20 30 ...

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook- May 2003

    Annual Energy Outlook

    3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. The April 24 meeting of ... Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2003. Energy ...

  17. LED Watch: The Outlook for OLEDs

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    December 2014 LED Watch: The Outlook for OLEDs James Brodrick, U.S. Department of Energy LD+A Magazine

  18. Microsoft Word - Hurricane Outlook.doc

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement - June 2010 1 June 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: 2010 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico Highlights  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, released on May 27, 2010, predicted that the Atlantic basin will likely experience above-normal tropical weather activity during the upcoming hurricane season (June 1 - November 30). 1

  19. Review of EIA Oil Production Outlooks

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Review of EIA oil production outlooks For 2014 EIA Energy Conference July 15, 2014 | Washington, DC By Samuel Gorgen, Upstream Analyst Overview Gorgen, Tight Oil Production Trends EIA Conference, July 15, 2014 2 * Drilling Productivity Report performance review - Permian - Eagle Ford - Bakken * Crude oil production projections - Short-Term Energy Outlook - Annual Energy Outlook - International tight oil outlook * New DPR region highlights: Utica Drilling Productivity Report review - major tight

  20. World nuclear outlook 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-01

    As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2010 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for three different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.

  1. World nuclear outlook 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-09-29

    As part of the EIA program to provide energy information, this analysis report presents the current status and projections through 2015 of nuclear capacity, generation, and fuel cycle requirements for all countries in the world using nuclear power to generate electricity for commercial use. It also contains information and forecasts of developments in the uranium market. Long-term projections of US nuclear capacity, generation, and spent fuel discharges for two different scenarios through 2040 are developed for the Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM). In turn, the OCRWM provides partial funding for preparation of this report. The projections of uranium requirements are provided to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for preparation of the Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD report, Summary of Nuclear Power and Fuel Cycle Data in OECD Member Countries.

  2. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, 2nd quarter 1994

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-05-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the second quarter of 1994 through the fourth quarter of 1995. Values for the first quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available. The historical energy data, compiled into the second quarter 1994 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the STIFS. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service.

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook April 1999-Summer Gasoline Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    pump price for regular gasoline. d Refinery output plus motor gasoline field production, including fuel ethanol ... The forecasts were generated by simulation of the Short-Term ...

  4. The outlook for natural gas

    SciTech Connect

    1993-12-31

    The proceedings of the Institute of Gas Technology`s Houston Conference on the Outlook for Natural Gas held October 5, 1993 are presented. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  5. Evaluation of the St. Lucia geothermal resource: macroeconomic models

    SciTech Connect

    Burris, A.E.; Trocki, L.K.; Yeamans, M.K.; Kolstad, C.D.

    1984-08-01

    A macroeconometric model describing the St. Lucian economy was developed using 1970 to 1982 economic data. Results of macroeconometric forecasts for the period 1983 through 1985 show an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for 1983 and 1984 with a decline in 1985. The rate of population growth is expected to exceed GDP growth so that a small decline in per capita GDP will occur. We forecast that garment exports will increase, providing needed employment and foreign exchange. To obtain a longer-term but more general outlook on St. Lucia's economy, and to evaluate the benefit of geothermal energy development, we applied a nonlinear programming model. The model maximizes discounted cumulative consumption.

  6. Annual energy outlook 1999, with projections to 2020

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an Overview summarizing the AEO99 reference case. The next section, Legislation and Regulations, describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. Issues in Focus discusses current energy issues--the economic decline in East Asia, growth in demand for natural gas, vehicle emissions standards, competitive electricity pricing, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends. The analysis in AEO99 focuses primarily on a reference case and four other cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. Forecast tables for these cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendixes D and E present a summary of the reference case forecasts in units of oil equivalence and household energy expenditures. The AEO99 projections are based on Federal, State, and local laws and regulations in effect on July 1, 1998. Pending legislation and sections of existing legislation for which funds have not been appropriated are not reflected in the forecasts. Historical data used for the AEOI99 projections were the most current available as of July 31, 1998, when most 1997 data but only partial 1998 data were available.

  7. State Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation Inventory - Energy Information

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Administration Analysis & Projections Glossary › FAQS › Overview Projection Data Monthly short-term forecasts through the next calender year Annual projections to 2040 International projections All projections reports Analysis & Projections Major Topics Most popular Annual Energy Outlook related Congressional & other requests International Energy Outlook related Presentations Recurring Short-Term Outlook Related Special outlooks Testimony All reports Browse by Tag

  8. GRC Annual Meeting 2015 Presentation: GTO Current Outlook | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy GRC Annual Meeting 2015 Presentation: GTO Current Outlook GRC Annual Meeting 2015 Presentation: GTO Current Outlook 2015 GRC GTO Current Outlook final.pdf (3.38 MB) More Documents & Publications Geothermal Technologies Office Current Outlook GRC Annual Meeting 2015 Presentation: GTO Current Outlook 2015 Annual Report, Geothermal Technologies Office 2015 Peer Review | Plenaries

  9. Geothermal Technologies Office Current Outlook | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Current Outlook Geothermal Technologies Office Current Outlook 2015 GRC GTO Current Outlook final.pdf (3.38 MB) More Documents & Publications GRC Annual Meeting 2015 Presentation: GTO Current Outlook Geothermal Technologies Office Current Outlook 2015 Annual Report, Geothermal Technologies Office FORGE, 2015 Peer Review Plenary

  10. Assumptions and Expectations for Annual Energy Outlook 2015: Oil and Gas Working Group

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    and Expectations for Annual Energy Outlook 2016: Oil and Gas Working Group AEO2016 Oil and Gas Supply Working Group Meeting Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis February 29, 2016| Washington, DC http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/ WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE Overview * Natural gas markets - Natural gas supply and delivered prices - Natural gas consumption - Pipeline imports/exports - LNG exports *

  11. Hanford and the tri-cities economy: Review and outlook, March 1989

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, M.J.; Belzer, D.B.; March, S.J.; Beck, D.M.; Schultz, R.W.; Harkreader, S.A.

    1989-03-01

    The economy of the Tri-Cities, Washington area (primarily, Benton and Franklin Counties) is in transition due to major changes in two Department of Energy programs at Hanford---the abrupt ending of the Basalt Waste Isolation Project (BWIP) in December 1987 and the placing of the N Reactor in ''cold standby'' status in February 1988. This report reviews the economic situation in the Tri-Cities during 1988 and presents forecasts for key economic indicators for 1989. This report will be updated about every six months to review the changes in the area economy and forecast the near-term outlook. 6 figs., 33 tabs.

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Prices EIA expects Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook, with NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day

  13. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  14. Solar Forecasting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  15. Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - Appendix A

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    2015 Reference case Table A12. Petroleum and other liquids prices (2013 dollars per gallon, unless otherwise noted) Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2015 ...

  16. Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - Appendix A

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    6 Reference case Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Table A3. Energy prices by sector and source (2013 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted) ...

  17. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2015

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Introduction This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 1 ...

  18. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference Case

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    and Renewables Analysis Office of Energy Analysis WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR ... History 2012 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, (preliminary), Annual ...

  19. Annual Energy Outlook 2015 - Appendix A

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Reference case Table A2. Energy consumption by sector and source (quadrillion Btu per year, unless otherwise noted) Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2015 ...

  20. Technology Innovation Outlook for Advanced Liquid Biofuels

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Breakout Session 3C: Innovative Approaches and Materials for Clean Energy Technology Innovation Outlook for Advanced Liquid Biofuels Jeffrey Skeer, Senior Programme Officer, International Renewable Energy Agency

  1. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 - Abbreviations

    Annual Energy Outlook

    AEO: Annual Energy Outlook AEO2012: Annual Energy Outlook 2012 AFUE: Average Fuel Use Efficiency ANWR: Artic National Wildlife Refuge ARRA2009: American Recovery and...

  2. Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    October 2013 1 October 2013 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO) ... 5-year average (see EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook slideshow). ...

  3. International energy outlook 1997 with projections to 2015

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    The International Energy Outlook 1997 (IE097) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2015.

  4. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    change the pattern of annual demand shifts reported in earlier Outlooks. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, December 2002 History Projections Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02...

  5. Annual energy outlook 2005 with projections to 2025

    SciTech Connect

    2005-02-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA's National Energy Modelling System (NEMS). The report begins with an 'Overview' summarizing the AEO2005 reference case. The next section, 'Legislation and Regulations', discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues in the USA. Issues in Focus includes discussions on key energy market issues and examines their potential impacts. In particular, it includes a discussion of the world oil price assumptions used in the reference case and four alternative world oil price cases examined in AEO2005. 'Issues in Focus' is followed by 'Market Trends', which provides a summary of energy market trends in the AEO2005 forecast. The analysis in AEO2005 focuses primarily on a reference case, lower and higher economic growth cases, and four alternative oil price cases, a low world oil price case, an October oil futures case, and two high world oil price cases. Forecast tables for those cases are provided in Appendixes A through D. The major results for the alterative cases, which explore the impacts of varying key assumption in NEMS (such as rates of technology penetration), are summarized in Appendix E. Appendix F briefly describes NEMS and the alternative cases. 115 figs., 38 tabs., 8 apps.

  6. Annual energy outlook 1997 with projections to 2015

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 1997 (AEO97) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2015 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). These projections are based on results of EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report begins with a summary of the reference case, followed by a discussion of the legislative assumptions and evolving legislative and regulatory issues. ``Issues in Focus`` discusses emerging energy issues and other topics of particular interest. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends. The analysis in AEO97 focuses primarily on a reference case and four other cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. Forecast tables for these cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendixes D and E present summaries of the reference case forecasts in units of oil equivalence and household energy expenditures. Twenty-three other cases explore the impacts of varying key assumptions in NEMS--generally, technology penetration, with the major results shown in Appendix F. Appendix G briefly describes NEMS and the major AEO97 assumptions, with a summary table. 114 figs., 22 tabs.

  7. Soviet Union oil sector outlook grows bleaker still

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-08-12

    This paper reports on the outlook for the U.S.S.R's oil sector which grows increasingly bleak and with it prospects for the Soviet economy. Plunging Soviet oil production and exports have analysts revising near term oil price outlooks, referring to the Soviet oil sector's self-destructing and Soviet oil production in a freefall. County NatWest, Washington, citing likely drops in Soviet oil production and exports (OGJ, Aug. 5, p. 16), has jumped its projected second half spot price for West Texas intermediate crude by about $2 to $22-23/bbl. Smith Barney, New York, forecasts WTI postings at $24-25/bbl this winter, largely because of seasonally strong world oil demand and the continued collapse in Soviet oil production. It estimates the call on oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at more than 25 million b/d in first quarter 1992. That would be the highest level of demand for OPEC oil since 1980, Smith Barney noted.

  8. Forecast Change

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 ...

  9. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  10. Annual outlook for US electric power, 1986

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-04-24

    This document includes summary information on the ownership structure of the US electric utility industry, a description of electric utility regulation, and identification of selected factors likely to affect US electricity markets from 1985 through 1995. This Outlook expands upon projections first presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1985, offering additional discussion of projected US electricity markets and regional detail. It should be recognized that work on the Annual Energy Outlook 1985 had been completed prior to the sharp reductions in world oil prices experienced early in 1986.

  11. Short-term energy outlook, October 1998. Quarterly projections, 1998 4. quarter

    SciTech Connect

    1998-10-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from October 1998 through December 1999. Values for third quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the October 1998 version of the Short-term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding.

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Summer Fuels Outlooks 2016 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow April 2016 PDF 2015 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow April 2015 PDF 2014 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow April 2014 PDF 2013 Summer Fuels Outlook Slideshow April 2013 PDF 2012 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Slideshow April 2012 PDF 2011 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Slideshow April 2011 PDF 2010 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Slideshow April 2010 PDF 2009 Summer Transportation Fuels Outlook Slideshow April 2009 PDF 2008

  13. EM's Budget Outlook by Terry Tyborowski

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Assistant Secretary for Program Planning and Budget April 18, 2012 www.em.doe.gov safety performance cleanup closure E M Environmental Management 2 EM's Budget Outlook: FY 2013, FY ...

  14. 2016 NASEO Energy Policy Outlook Conference

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    NASEO’s Energy Policy Outlook Conference is the national forum to connect with and learn from state energy officials working on innovative energy policies and programs, and to engage with federal officials on priority energy issues.

  15. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2015

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 September 2015 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information ...

  16. 2015 NASEO Energy Policy Outlook Conference

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    BETO Director Jonathan Male will be speaking at the National Association of State Energy Organization Energy Policy Outlook Conference, which will be taking place from February 3–6 at the Washington, D.C.

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2014

    Annual Energy Outlook

    will average 4.44MMBtu in 2014 and 4.11MMBtu in 2015. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2014 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquids EIA ...

  18. Short Term Energy Outlook, January 2003

    Annual Energy Outlook

    3 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2003 Overview World Oil Markets. The oil market is ... underground storage levels at a much Energy Information AdministrationShort-Term ...

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2016

    Annual Energy Outlook

    in 2017, compared with an average of 2.63MMBtu in 2015. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2016 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels ...

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2016

    Annual Energy Outlook

    other renewables increases from 8% in 2016 to 9% in 2017. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2016 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels ...

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2014

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... EIA expects the WTI discount to average 10bbl in 2014 and 11bbl in 2015. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook March 2014 2 Cold weather also ...

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2013

    Annual Energy Outlook

    1 July 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Highlights The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average 102 per ...

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2014

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... than in last month's STEO, and 4.33MMBtu in 2015. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook May 2014 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquids EIA ...

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2014

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... Projected natural gas working U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2014 2 inventories reach 3.48 Tcf at the end of October, 0.34 Tcf below ...

  5. Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2016

    Annual Energy Outlook

    67b (at the 95% confidence interval) in October 2016. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2016 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels EIA ...

  6. Annual energy outlook 1998 with projections to 2020

    SciTech Connect

    1997-12-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) is the first AEO with projections to 2020. Key issues for the forecast extension are trends in energy efficiency improvements, the effects of increasing production and productivity improvements on energy prices, and the reduction in nuclear generating capacity. Projections in AEO98 also reflect a greater shift to electricity market restructuring. Restructuring is addressed through several changes that are assumed to occur in the industry, including a shorter capital recovery period for capacity expansion decisions and a revised financial structure that features a higher cost of capital as the result of higher competitive risk. Both assumptions tend to favor less capital-intensive generation technologies, such as natural gas, over coal or baseload renewable technologies. The forecasts include specific restructuring plans in those regions that have announced plans. California, New York, and New England are assumed to begin competitive pricing in 1998. The provisions of the California legislation for stranded cost recovery and price caps are incorporated. In New York and New England, stranded cost recovery is assumed to be phased out by 2008.

  7. Oil market outlook and drivers

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Oil inventories in industrialized countries to reach record high at end of 2015 The amount of year-end oil inventories held in industrialized countries is expected to be the highest on record in 2015. In its monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects commercial oil inventories in the United States and other industrialized countries to total 2.83 billion barrels at the end of this year almost 90 million barrels more than at the end of 2014. Global oil production

  8. DOE/EIA-0202(84/3Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    3Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook pn Quarterly Projections August 1984 Published: September 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t- jrt .ort lort .iort .iort iort iort iort ort Tt jm .erm -Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term -Term -Term nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  9. DOE/EIA-0202(84/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections October 1984 Published: November 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort iort lort iort lort \ort ort Tt .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term -Term -Term xrm nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  10. DOE/EIA-0202(85/2Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    2Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook amm Quarterly Projections April 1985 Published: May 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D C t rt jrt .ort lort .iort iort iort lort '.ort ort .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term xrm nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  11. DOE/EIA-0202(85/3Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    3Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections July 1985 Published: August 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D C t rt jrt .ort lort iort iort iort iort '.ort ort Tt .-m .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2013

    Annual Energy Outlook

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) forecast for Brent crude oil spot ... of 2013 and 96 per barrel during 2014. Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain and ...

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    market outlook and drivers for Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) July 14, 2016 | St. Louis, MO by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator Forecast -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1 2017-Q1 Implied stock change and balance (right axis) World production (left axis) World consumption (left axis) world supply and demand million barrels per day implied stock change million barrels per day OMFIF l Third Main

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    STEO Archives Previous Short-Term Energy Outlook reports are available in the original Adobe Acrobat PDF file with text, charts, and tables, or just the monthly data tables in an Excel file. + EXPAND ALL 2016 STEO Issues Release Date Full PDF Report Excel Data File Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty November 2016 11/8/2016 nov16.pdf nov16_base.xlsx Now included in the Full STEO PDF Report October 2016 10/12/2016 oct16.pdf oct16_base.xlsx Now included in the Full STEO PDF Report

  15. Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 2013

    Annual Energy Outlook

    3 1 October 2013 Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO) Highlights EIA ... 5-year average (see EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook slideshow). ...

  16. DOE/EIA-0202(85/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook OBIS Quarterly

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5/4Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook OBIS Quarterly Projections October 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D C t rt jrt .ort lort .iort aort iort iort <.ort ort Tt .-m .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term -Term -Term xrm uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  17. DOE/EIA-0202|83/2Q)-1 Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    |83/2Q)-1 Short-Term Energy Outlook Volume 1-Quarterly Projections May 1983 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort iort iort lOrt iort '.ort- ort Tt . m .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term -Term -Term nergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  18. Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook

    Reports and Publications

    2015-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the AEO using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

  19. DOE/EIA-0202(85/1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections January 1985 Published: February 1985 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort lort lort nort lort *.ort ort Tt .m .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  20. Summer 2003 Motor Gasoline Outlook.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    ... d Average pump price for regular gasoline. ... production, including fuel ethanol blended into ... -Hill Forecast CONTROL0301. Energy Information AdministrationShort-Term Energy ...

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Winter Fuels Outlooks 2016-2017 Winter Fuels Outlook October 2016 PDF 2015-2016 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow October 2015 PDF 2014-2015 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow October 2014 PDF 2013-2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow October 2013 PDF 2012-2013 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow October 2012 PDF 2011-2012 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow October 2011 PDF 2010-2011 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow October 2010 PDF 2009-2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow October 2009 PDF 2008-2009 Winter Fuels

  2. Geothermal Energy and FORGE Program Current Outlook

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Geothermal Technologies Office Current Outlook Courtesy Ben Phillips Geothermal Resource Council Annual Meeting September 2015 2 Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy eere.energy.gov GTO Major Initiatives EGS HRC SALT Accelerate EGS * Build upon R&D and demonstration project successes * EGS Integrated R&D FOA * Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) FOA kicked off New Geothermal Opportunities * Play Fairway Analysis * Pathway to next-step drilling validation

  3. Technology Innovation Outlook for Advanced Liquid Biofuels

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Innovation Outlook for Advanced Liquid Biofuels Bioenergy 2016: Mobilizing the Bioeconomy through Innovation Innovative Approaches and Materials for Clean Energy Washington, DC July 14, 2016 Introduction to IRENA * The Intergovernmental Organisation focused on renewable energy * 148 members countries (including EU) and 28 in process of accession The Case for Advanced Biofuels Advanced biofuels broaden sustainable feedstock options. 2010 2030 2030 2030 reference Remap Doubling (IRENA, 2016)

  4. International energy outlook 1995, May 1995

    SciTech Connect

    1995-06-01

    The International Energy Outlook 1995 (IEO95) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the international energy market outlook through 2010. The report is an extension of the EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). US projections appearing in the IEO95 are consistent with those published in the AEO95. IEO95 is provided as a statistical service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projects are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 295(c). The IEO95 projections are based on US and foreign government policies in effect on October 1, 1994. IEO95 displays projections according to six basic country groupings. The regionalization has changed since last year`s report. Mexico has been added to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and a more detailed regionalization has been incorporated for the remainder of the world, including the following subgroups: non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. China is included in non-OECD Asia. Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are combined in the EE/FSU subgroup.

  5. Winter Fuels Outlook Conference Rescheduled for November 1 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Winter Fuels Outlook Conference Rescheduled for November 1 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference Rescheduled for November 1 October 7, 2013 - 9:50am Addthis DOE's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, Energy Information Administration, and the National Association of State Energy Officials will host the 2013 - 2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on November 1 at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. Originally scheduled for October 8, the conference has been

  6. Microsoft PowerPoint - 03 Wyss Economic Outlook [Compatibility Mode] |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy 3 Wyss Economic Outlook [Compatibility Mode] Microsoft PowerPoint - 03 Wyss Economic Outlook [Compatibility Mode] Microsoft PowerPoint - 03 Wyss Economic Outlook [Compatibility Mode] (2.25 MB) More Documents & Publications Decoupling: Mechanics and Issues, Presentation to the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission Energy Efficiency Incentives Workshop Michael Liebreich (Energy All Stars Presentation) Economic Environment - Arniban Basu, Chairman & CEO, Sage

  7. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - October 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5 1 October 2005 Short-Term Energy Outlook and Winter Fuels Outlook October 12, 2005 Release (Next Update: November 8, 2005) Overview Warnings from previous Outlooks about the potential adverse impacts of an active hurricane season on domestic energy supply and prices are unfortunately being reflected in the challenging realities brought about by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The impact of the hurricanes on oil and natural gas production, oil refining, natural gas processing, and pipeline systems

  8. United States Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (Early Release) | Open...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    URI: cleanenergysolutions.orgcontentunited-states-annual-energy-outlook-2 Language: English Policies: "Deployment Programs,Regulations" is not in the list of possible...

  9. Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Early Release: Annotated Summary of...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Early Release: Annotated Summary of Two Cases May 17, 2016 The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 ... and demographic trends. * While energy markets are complex, energy models are ...

  10. SEP Special Projects Report: Future Outlook and Appendix

    SciTech Connect

    2000-07-01

    The Sharing Success appendix provides the future outlook for SEP as well as charts and graphs for grants and Special Projects.

  11. Microsoft Word - Hurricane Outlook_v3.doc

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Supplement: The 2007 Outlook for Hurricane Impacts on Gulf of Mexico Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production Highlights * The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ...

  12. Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Reference Case

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Flex-Fuel Vehicle Modeling in the Annual Energy Outlook John Maples Office of Energy Consumption and Energy Analysis March 20, 2013 | Washington, DC Light duty vehicle technology ...

  13. Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release Reference Case

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    emission intensity index, 20051 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case History Projections 2013 Carbon dioxide emissions per 2009 dollar GDP Energy use per 2009...

  14. QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    1Q) 1991 1 QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION February 1991 This publication may be purchased from the Superintendent of ...

  15. EIA - Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013 Data Tables

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Analysis & Projections Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Full Release Date: September 15, ... Summary Case Tables Table 1. Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary Table 2. ...

  16. QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    >OEEIA-0202(923Q) 1992 3 QUARTER SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK QUARTERLY PROJECTIONS ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION August 1992 This publication and other Energy Information ...

  17. Instructions for using HSPD-12 Authenticated Outlook Web Access...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Provides instructions for remote Outlook access using HSPD-12 Badge. HSPD-12 Badge Instructions (388.34 KB) More Documents & Publications User Guide for Remote Access to VDI...

  18. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    to increase because of accelerated economic growth and generally lower prices. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, October 2003 History Projections Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03...

  19. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    to increase because of accelerated economic growth and generally lower prices. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, November 2003 History Projections Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03...

  20. DOE/EIA-0202(84/1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    1Q) Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections February 1984 Published: March 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt- .ort- iort- iort- .iort- iort- lort- <ort- ort Tt- .erm -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term -Term Term Term .-Term -Term uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  1. September 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... bbld in 2012. Forecast lower-48 crude ... caused a short-term increase in the price of gasoline and diesel fuel in the eastern ... either to fulfill long-term contract ...

  2. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2015

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    2.6% per year from 2015-25 and 2.3% from 2025-40, the last fifteen years of the forecast. ... High and Low Economic Growth cases to project the possible impacts of alternative ...

  3. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  4. DOE/EIA-0202(84/2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    2QH Short-Term Energy Outlook Quarterly Projections May 1984 Published: June 1984 Energy Information Administration Washington, D.C. t rt jrt .ort lort .iort .iort- iort- iort- '.ort- ort- .m .erm Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term Term i-Term rTerm -Term xrm uergy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy ^nergy Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook

  5. EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Early Release

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ‹ Analysis & Projections AEO2016 Early Release: Summary of Two Cases Release Date: May 17, 2016 | Full Report Release Date: July 7, 2016 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2016) This release is an annotated PowerPoint summary and the data for two cases from the Annual Energy Outlook 2016-the Reference case and the No Clean Power Plan case. The AEO2016 full version, including additional cases and discussion, will be released July 7, 2016. Download the AEO2016 Early Release: An Annotated

  6. EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Early Release

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    ‹ Analysis & Projections AEO2016 Early Release: Summary of Two Cases Release Date: May 17, 2016 | Full Report Release Date: July 7, 2016 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2016) This release is an annotated PowerPoint summary and the data for two cases from the Annual Energy Outlook 2016-the Reference case and the No Clean Power Plan case. The AEO2016 full version, including additional cases and discussion, will be released July 7, 2016. Download the AEO2016 Early Release: An Annotated

  7. International Energy Outlook 2016-Electricity - Energy Information

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Administration 5. Electricity print version Overview In the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, world net electricity generation increases 69% by 2040, from 21.6 trillion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2012 to 25.8 trillion kWh in 2020 and 36.5 trillion kWh in 2040. Electricity is the world's fastest-growing form of end-use energy consumption, as it has been for many decades. Power systems have continued to evolve from isolated, small grids to integrated national markets and

  8. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  9. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  10. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  11. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  12. Solar Forecasting Technical Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting Technical Workshop August 3, 2016 901 D St SW, Suite #930, Washington, DC Agenda 8:00-8:30 Check-in 8:30-8:45 Welcome & Opening remarks Guohui Yuan, DOE 8:45-9:15 Overview of Motivation and Techniques for Solar Forecasting Jan Kleissl, UCSD 9:15-9:45 Collaborative Research on Solar Power Forecasting: Challenges, Methods, and Assessment Tara Jensen, NCAR 9:45-10:00 Break 10:00-10:30 Machine-learning Based Enhancements for Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Research to Applications

  13. Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  14. A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

    SciTech Connect

    Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.

    2011-08-26

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Model

    Reports and Publications

    2009-01-01

    Description of the procedures for estimating carbon dioxide emissions in the Short-Term Energy Outlook

  16. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  17. Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand

    Reports and Publications

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a midterm forecast for biomass ethanol production under three different technology cases for the period 2000 to 2020, based on projections developed from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System. An overview of cellulose conversion technology and various feedstock options and a brief history of ethanol usage in the United States are also presented.

  18. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  19. IN-SPIRE: Creating a Visualization from Microsoft Outlook

    ScienceCinema

    None

    2012-12-31

    IN-SPIRE can harvest text from Microsoft Outlook e-mail messages via a simple drag-and-drop mechanism. This is great for mailing lists or systems that send search results via e-mail.

  20. Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, The

    Reports and Publications

    2003-01-01

    The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status & Outlook was undertaken to characterize the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and to examine recent trends and future prospects in the LNG market.

  1. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    the rest of the winter and perhaps well into spring, with prices averaging 4.90 per MMBtu through March and 4.45 in April (Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2003). Wellhead...

  2. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    the rest of the winter and the first part of spring, with prices averaging 5.19 per MMBtu through March and 4.58 in April (Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004). Wellhead...

  3. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    63 and 2.72 per MMBtu during the months through October without the wide variations that occurred over the spring and early summer months (Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2002)....

  4. Instructions for Using Secure Email via Outlook Web Access |...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Outlook Web Access provides access to unencrypted email only and is suitable for use from ... DOEnet or Internet access and a supported web browser Secure Email Login Procedure: Enter ...

  5. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    commercial sector demand are offset by lower demand in the electric power sector. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, September 2003 History Projections Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03...

  6. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    by 1.8 percent as the economy continues to expand and prices ease slightly. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, January 2004 History Projections Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03...

  7. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    economy. In 2003, natural gas demand growth is expected across all sectors. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, July 2002 History Projections Apr-02 Ma May-02 Jun-02...

  8. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    of 2005 relative to the first quarter of 2004 and relatively lower fuel oil prices. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, April 2004 History Projections Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04...

  9. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    should relieve some of the potential upward price pressure on the domestic market Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, January 2003 History Projections Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02...

  10. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    because of somewhat weaker prices and higher demand in the electric power sector. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, July 2003 History Projections Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03...

  11. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    than those of 2003, when stocks after the winter of 2002-2003 were at record lows. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, December 2003 History Projections Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03...

  12. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    power sector eases and relative coal and fuel oil spot prices decline somewhat. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, May 2004 History Projections Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04...

  13. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Annual Energy Outlook

    demand in the first quarter of 2005 relative to the first quarter of 2004. Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, March 2004 History Projections Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04...

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: 2014 Outlook for Gulf of...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should ...

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: 2015 Outlook for Gulf of...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should ...

  16. Annual Energy Outlook 2014: Electricity Working Group Meeting-72413

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Electricity Analysis Team Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis Office of Energy Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2014: Electricity Working Group Meeting July 24, 2013 Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference Case: Key Changes 2 Electricity Analysis Team, July 24th, 2013 * Environmental Rules - Updates to NEMS modeling of MATS - RGGI cap tightened to reflect February 2013 MOU * Enhancements - Reserve margins and capacity payments - Spinning and operating reserves - Operations

  17. International Energy Outlook 2016-Buildings sector energy consumption -

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    484(2016) I May 2016 International Energy Outlook 2016 ~ Independent Statistics & Ana[ysis e~ ~* a~ 1 U.S. ~~ergy. Information Administration Contacts The International Energy Outlook 2016 was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) under the direction of John Conti, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis (john.conti@eia.gov, 202-586-2222); Paul Holtberg, Team Leader, Analysis Integration Team (paul.holtberg@eia.gov, 202-586-1284); Jim Diefenderfer, Director, Office

  18. International Energy Outlook 2016-Executive Summary - Energy Information

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Administration Executive Summary print version The outlook for energy use worldwide presented in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) continues to show rising levels of demand over the next three decades, led by strong increases in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) [3], particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia, including China and India, account for more than half of the world's total increase in energy consumption over the 2012 to

  19. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - April 2006

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    6 1 April 2006 Short-Term Energy Outlook and Summer Fuels Outlook April 11, 2006 Release Contents Overview Global Petroleum Markets U.S. Petroleum Markets Motor Gasoline Diesel Fuel Natural Gas Markets Electricity Markets Coal Markets Overview Continued steady world oil demand growth, combined with only modest increases in world spare oil production capacity and the continuing risks of geopolitical instability, are expected to keep crude oil prices high through 2006. The price of West Texas

  20. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    February 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook February 2005 Winter Fuels Update (Figure 1) Despite some cold weather during the second half of January, expected average consumer prices for heating fuels this heating season are little changed since the January Outlook, leaving projections for household heating fuel expenditures about the same as previously reported. Heating oil expenditures by typical Northeastern households are expected to average 32 percent above last winter's levels, with

  1. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - January 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    January 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook January 2005 Winter Fuels Update (Figure 1) Consumer prices for heating fuels are relatively unchanged since the December Outlook, leaving projections for household heating fuel expenditures about the same as previously projected, despite continued warm weather in the middle of the heating season. Heating oil expenditures by typical Northeastern households are expected to average 30 percent above last winter's levels, with residential fuel oil prices

  2. The Outlook for Renewable Electricity in the United States

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    The Outlook for Renewable Electricity in the United States For 2014 EIA Energy Conference July 14, 2014 | Washington, DC By Gwen Bredehoeft Assessing the role of policy and other uncertainties Renewables have accounted for an increasing share of capacity additions over the last decade U.S. annual electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Other renewables Solar Wind Hydropower and other Natural gas and

  3. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2015

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    International Energy Module The National Energy Modeling System International Energy Module (IEM) simulates the interaction between U.S. and global petroleum markets. It uses assumptions of economic growth and expectations of future U.S. and world crude-like liquids production and consumption to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. liquid fuels markets on the international petroleum market. For each year of the forecast, the IEM computes Brent and WTI prices, provides a supply curve of world

  4. EIA - Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Data Tools & Models Glossary › FAQS › Overview Data Tools Time Series Models & Documentation EIA has a vast amount of data, reports, forecasts, analytical content, and documentation to assist researchers working on energy topics. For users eager to dive deeper into our content, we have assembled tools to customize searches, view specific data sets, study detailed documentation, and access time-series data. Application Programming Interface (API): The API allows computers to more

  5. 2016 SSL Forecast Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, is a biannual report which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S. general-lighting market,...

  6. SSL Forecast Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, is the latest edition of a biannual report which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S....

  7. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  8. Unconventional gas outlook: resources, economics, and technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Drazga, B.

    2006-08-15

    The report explains the current and potential of the unconventional gas market including country profiles, major project case studies, and new technology research. It identifies the major players in the market and reports their current and forecasted projects, as well as current volume and anticipated output for specific projects. Contents are: Overview of unconventional gas; Global natural gas market; Drivers of unconventional gas sources; Forecast; Types of unconventional gas; Major producing regions Overall market trends; Production technology research; Economics of unconventional gas production; Barriers and challenges; Key regions: Australia, Canada, China, Russia, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States; Major Projects; Industry Initiatives; Major players. Uneconomic or marginally economic resources such as tight (low permeability) sandstones, shale gas, and coalbed methane are considered unconventional. However, due to continued research and favorable gas prices, many previously uneconomic or marginally economic gas resources are now economically viable, and may not be considered unconventional by some companies. Unconventional gas resources are geologically distinct in that conventional gas resources are buoyancy-driven deposits, occurring as discrete accumulations in structural or stratigraphic traps, whereas unconventional gas resources are generally not buoyancy-driven deposits. The unconventional natural gas category (CAM, gas shales, tight sands, and landfill) is expected to continue at double-digit growth levels in the near term. Until 2008, demand for unconventional natural gas is likely to increase at an AAR corresponding to 10.7% from 2003, aided by prioritized research and development efforts. 1 app.

  9. Outlook for Light-Duty-Vehicle Fuel Demand | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Outlook for Light-Duty-Vehicle Fuel Demand Outlook for Light-Duty-Vehicle Fuel Demand Gasoline and distillate demand impact of the Energy Independance and Security Act of 2007 PDF ...

  10. Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government ... ORNLTM-2011101 STATUS AND OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. NON-AUTOMOTIVE FUEL CELL INDUSTRY: ...

  11. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - April 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    April 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2005 2005 Summer Motor Gasoline Outlook (Figure 1) Gasoline prices in 2005 are projected to remain high, at an expected average of $2.28 per gallon for the April to September summer season, 38 cents above last summer. Similar high motor gasoline prices are expected through 2006. Monthly average prices are projected to peak at about $2.35 per gallon in May. Summer diesel fuel prices are expected to average $2.24 per gallon. As in 2004, the primary

  12. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - July 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    July 2005 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2005 2005 Summer Motor Fuels Outlook Update (Figure 1) Retail regular-grade gasoline prices moved up from about $2.12 per gallon at the beginning of June to $2.33 on July 11. Gasoline pump prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.25 per gallon, 8 cents per gallon higher than last month's projection and about 35 cents per gallon above the year-ago level. Crude oil prices are expected to remain high enough to keep quarterly

  13. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - June 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook June 2005 2005 Summer Motor Fuels Outlook Update (Figure 1) In May, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices oscillated from the low $50s range to $47 and back again, retail gasoline prices declined steadily from about $2.24 per gallon at the beginning of the month to $2.10 on May 30. On June 6, average retail prices were $2.12 per gallon. Pump gasoline prices for the summer (April-September) are now projected to average $2.17 per gallon, similar to last

  14. U.S., non-U.S. outlays to rise in `98, but oil price plunge clouds spending outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Beck, R.J.

    1998-03-23

    Capital spending by oil and gas companies in and outside the US will rise in 1998, but that forecast may be jeopardized by the continuing plunge in oil prices. For operations in the US, oil and gas company capital spending is expected to move up in 1998 for the fourth year in a row. If the money is spent, it will be the highest industry investment level since 1985. Strong oil and gas prices and increased volumes have boosted company cash flow and profits the last few years, fueling increased spending. However, the near-term outlook has now been clouded by economic turmoil in a number of Asian countries and the recent collapse of oil prices. The paper discusses oil and gas prices, US upstream spending, US non-exploration and production spending, capital spending in Canada, and spending outside US and Canada.

  15. Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 2030

    SciTech Connect

    2009-03-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009), prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030, based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). EIA published an “early release” version of the AEO2009 reference case in December 2008.

  16. An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook

    Reports and Publications

    2009-01-01

    This report updates the Reference Case presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 based on recently enacted legislation and the changing macroeconomic environment.

  17. January 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    flat gasoline and jet fuel consumption. ... EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price... below this forecast. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy ...

  18. March 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

    Annual Energy Outlook

    significantly from this forecast. EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged 112 per ... by increases in distillate fuel and liquefied petroleum gas ...

  19. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 13, 2010...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    of 986 per household * Due to higher fuel prices forecast this winter compared to last - 2% ... typical levels, which helps dampen price increases if winter is colder than ...

  20. China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David; McNeil, Michael; Zheng, Nina; Ke, Jing; Levine, Mark

    2011-02-15

    As a result of soaring energy demand from a staggering pace of economic expansion and the related growth of energy-intensive industry, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest contributor to CO{sub 2} emissions in 2007. At the same time, China has taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity by setting both a short-term energy intensity reduction goal for 2006 to 2010 as well as a long-term carbon intensity reduction goal for 2020. This study presents a China Energy Outlook through 2050 that assesses the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its intensity reduction goals. Over the past few years, LBNL has established and significantly enhanced its China End-Use Energy Model which is based on the diffusion of end-use technologies and other physical drivers of energy demand. This model presents an important new approach for helping understand China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies through scenario analysis. A baseline ('Continued Improvement Scenario') and an alternative energy efficiency scenario ('Accelerated Improvement Scenario') have been developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to control energy demand growth and mitigate emissions. In addition, this analysis also evaluated China's long-term domestic energy supply in order to gauge the potential challenge China may face in meeting long-term demand for energy. It is a common belief that China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow throughout this century and will dominate global emissions. The findings from this research suggest that this will not necessarily be the case because saturation in ownership of appliances, construction of residential and commercial floor area, roadways, railways, fertilizer use, and

  1. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  2. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  3. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  4. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  5. The forecast calls for flu

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  6. Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Modeling updates in the Transportation sector

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    For AEO2015 Working Group July 30, 2014 | Washington, DC By Nicholas Chase, Trisha Hutchins, John Maples Office of Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis Modeling updates in the transportation sector Data updates 2 * Update historical fuel consumption data to latest state energy data (2011), annual national data from Monthly Energy Review (2012), and most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook * Update historical light-duty vehicle attribute data through 2013 (pending) * Update historical

  7. International Energy Outlook 2016-Natural gas - Energy Information

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Administration 3. Natural gas print version Overview Consumption of natural gas worldwide is projected to increase from 120 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2012 to 203 Tcf in 2040 in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case. By energy source, natural gas accounts for the largest increase in world primary energy consumption. Abundant natural gas resources and robust production contribute to the strong competitive position of natural gas among other resources. Natural gas

  8. International Energy Outlook 2016-Transportation sector energy consumption

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    - Energy Information Administration 8. Transportation sector energy consumption print version Overview In the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, transportation sector delivered energy consumption increases at an annual average rate of 1.4%, from 104 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2012 to 155 quadrillion Btu in 2040. Transportation energy demand growth occurs almost entirely in regions outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

  9. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  10. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  11. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  12. Building America Research: Part I – Update and Outlook Webinar (Text Version)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Below is the text version of the webinar "Building America Research: Part I – Update and Outlook," presented in August 2016. Watch the video.

  13. Microsoft PowerPoint - BP 2030 Outlook (EIA conference Apr 2011).ppt

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    BP Energy Outlook 2030 Washington, DC 26 April 2011 Energy Outlook 2030 2 © BP 2011 Global trends US particulars What can bend the trend? Outline Energy Outlook 2030 3 © BP 2011 Non-OECD economies drive consumption growth Billion toe Billion toe 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 OECD Non-OECD 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil * * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 2030 4 © BP 2011 Gas and renewables win as fuel shares

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Uncertainties in the Short...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should ...

  15. Assumptions and Expectations for Annual Energy Outlook 2015:...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ... barrels per day January 2015 STEO forecast of U.S. oil production generally within ... fuel - Compressed natural gas vehicle fuel price (change in data) - Change in LNG motor ...

  16. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  17. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-11-10.xlsx (70.03 KB) More Documents & Publications National Nuclear Security Administration - Juliana Heynes Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment

  18. Energy for 500 Million Homes: Drivers and Outlook for Residential Energy Consumption in China

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Nan; McNeil, Michael A.; Levine, Mark

    2009-06-01

    China's rapid economic expansion has propelled it to the rank of the largest energy consuming nation in the world, with energy demand growth continuing at a pace commensurate with its economic growth. The urban population is expected to grow by 20 million every year, accompanied by construction of 2 billion square meters of buildings every year through 2020. Thus residential energy use is very likely to continue its very rapid growth. Understanding the underlying drivers of this growth helps to identify the key areas to analyze energy efficiency potential, appropriate policies to reduce energy use, as well as to understand future energy in the building sector. This paper provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis of residential building energy consumption in China using data from a wide variety of sources and a modelling effort that relies on a very detailed characterization of China's energy demand. It assesses the current energy situation with consideration of end use, intensity, and efficiency etc, and forecast the future outlook for the critical period extending to 2020, based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity, availability of energy services, technology improvement and energy intensities. From this analysis, we can conclude that Chinese residential energy consumption will more than double by 2020, from 6.6 EJ in 2000 to 15.9 EJ in 2020. This increase will be driven primarily by urbanization, in combination with increases in living standards. In the urban and higher income Chinese households of the future, most major appliances will be common, and heated and cooled areas will grow on average. These shifts will offset the relatively modest efficiency gains expected according to current government plans and policies already in place. Therefore, levelling and reduction of growth in residential energy demand in China will require a new set of more aggressive efficiency policies.

  19. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  20. NREL 2016 Standard Scenarios Outlook Shows Continued Growth in Renewables

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    and Gas in the U.S. Power Sector - News Releases | NREL 2016 Standard Scenarios Outlook Shows Continued Growth in Renewables and Gas in the U.S. Power Sector Webinar on December 6 November 16, 2016 Graph of Renewable Energy Penetration by NREL. Renewable energy penetration in the U.S. power sector as projected by a subset of the Standard Scenarios, where the dashed line shows historical values. Penetration is defined as the fraction of load met by renewable energy. Source: NREL. The Energy

  1. International Energy Outlook 2016-Petroleum and other liquid fuels - Energy

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Information Administration 2. Petroleum and other liquid fuels print version Overview In the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, worldwide consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels increases from 90 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 100 million b/d in 2020 and 121 million b/d in 2040. Much of the growth in world liquid fuels consumption is projected for the emerging, non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD) economies of Asia,

  2. Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2005

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5 1 Short-Term Energy Outlook September 2005 Hurricane Katrina (Figures 1 and 2) The Gulf of Mexico coast region is a major oil and natural gas supply center for the United States with significant offshore oil and natural gas production, refining capacity, and petrochemical facilities, and serves as a major import hub and nexus for pipeline infrastructure. In the Gulf coast region, Federal offshore crude oil production accounts for 1.5 million barrels per day (29 percent of total U.S.

  3. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    average $2.83 per MMBtu in 2002 compared with about $4.00 last year (Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2002). Average wellhead prices have increased by nearly 50 percent from $2.09 per MMBtu in February to an estimated $3.11 per MMBtu in May. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have also increased, rising more than $1.00 per MMBtu since early February. It is atypical to see higher spot gas prices in the cooling season than during the heating season, particularly when working gas in underground storage is

  4. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    continue to range between $2.80 and $2.90 per MMBtu for the rest of the summer (Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2002). Prices have generally stayed over $2.85 per MMBtu since mid-March despite unusually high storage levels and the lack of underlying demand strength. However, if relatively cool weather prevails in the third quarter and high storage levels persist, sharply lower prices would be expected later in the summer. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average about $2.82 per

  5. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    63 and $2.72 per MMBtu during the months through October without the wide variations that occurred over the spring and early summer months (Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2002). Prices are expected to be less variable unless unusually hot weather in late summer results in gas being diverted from storage to meet the added cooling demand, or colder-than-normal weather for October results in an unexpected drawdown of storage stocks. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices are expected to average about

  6. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    71 and $2.75 per MMBtu through October and then increase to $2.92 in November as the heating season gets underway (Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2002). Prices remained above $2.90 during the last half of August as unusually hot weather across the nation resulted in added cooling demand, placing upward pressure on prices. Now that the summer is nearly over, cooling demand should be tapering off, while at the same time, the heating season has not yet begun. Overall in 2002, wellhead prices

  7. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    range from $2.91 to $3.19 per MMBtu through December 2002 and then increase to $3.53 in January 2003, the peak demand month of the heating season (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2002). Natural gas prices climbed sharply in late September as hurricanes Isidore and Lili caused production shut downs in the Gulf of Mexico. However, this price surge is expected to be short-lived, unless the weather in October is unusually cold or if additional storm activity in the Gulf curbs production further.

  8. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    about $3.49 per MMBtu through December 2002 and then increase to $3.76 in January 2003, the peak demand month of the heating season (Short-Term Energy Outlook, released November 7, 2002). Natural gas prices were higher than expected in October as storms in the Gulf of Mexico in late September temporarily shut in some gas production, causing spot prices at the Henry Hub and elsewhere to rise above $4.00 per million Btu for most of October. In addition, early winter-like temperatures, particularly

  9. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    $3.67 per MMBtu through December 2002 and then increase to more than $4.00 in January and February (Short-Term Energy Outlook, released December 9, 2002). Wellhead prices for the overall heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average about $3.90 per MMBtu, or $1.54 more than last winter's levels, while prices to residential customers are expected to average $8.15 per MMBtu compared with $7.14 last winter. Natural gas prices were higher than expected in

  10. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    4.20 per MMBtu through January 2003 and then increase to $4.61 in February and $4.23 in March (Short-Term Energy Outlook, released January 8, 2003). Wellhead prices for the overall heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather, are expected to average about $4.10 per MMBtu, or $1.74 more than last winter's levels, while prices to residential customers are expected to average $8.51 per MMBtu compared with $7.14 last winter. Natural gas prices were higher than expected in

  11. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    the rest of the winter and perhaps well into spring, with prices averaging $4.90 per MMBtu through March and $4.45 in April (Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2003). Wellhead prices for the overall heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather for the rest of the winter, are expected to average $4.22 per MMBtu, or $1.86 more than last winter's level. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have been generally above $5.00 per MMBtu thus far in 2003, and briefly rose above $6.00 during

  12. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    late spring, averaging $6.00 per MMBtu in March, $5.41 in April, and $4.91 in May (Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2003). Spot prices at the Henry Hub were above the $6.00 mark virtually all of February and spiked to $18.85 per MMBtu on February 25 as frigid weather covered much of the country. Henry Hub prices have fallen since then, reaching below $6.00 per MMBtu on March 12. Wellhead prices for the overall heating season (November through March), assuming normal weather for March, are

  13. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Now that the heating season has ended, natural gas wellhead prices have fallen from the exceptionally high levels seen in February and early March. Nevertheless, they still remain historically and unseasonably high, hovering around $5.00 per MMBtu. EIA projects that natural gas wellhead prices will remain above $5.00 per MMBtu in April and then decrease to $4.36 in May and $4.26 in June (Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2003). Wellhead prices for the 2002-2003 heating season (November through

  14. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    In the May 2003 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA projected that natural gas wellhead prices will remain high relative to historical levels. In February and March 2003, natural gas wellhead prices were more than double last year's levels. Despite considerable declines posted in April 2003, wellhead prices are expected to remain between 42 and 73 percent above last year's level through each of the remaining months of the refill season. This will push the average wellhead price to roughly $5.00 per

  15. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    this summer and continue at elevated levels through the rest of 2003 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2003). Natural gas wellhead prices are expected to average $5.40 per MMBtu in June and remain above $5.13 through December 2003. Spot prices at the Henry Hub have stayed well above $5.00 per MMBtu on a monthly basis since the beginning of the year and have been above $6.00 for the first 10 days of June. The low level of underground storage is the principal reason for these unusually high prices.

  16. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    through the rest of 2003, with monthly wellhead prices ranging between $4.31 and $4.96 per MMBtu (Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2003). The spot price at the Henry Hub has been above $5.00 per MMBtu on a monthly basis since the beginning of the year. The price topped $6.00 in late May and early June, as concerns escalated about the ability of the industry to rebuild underground storage supplies. However, natural gas storage injections were about 40 percent above normal in June, posting a record

  17. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    in September and range between $4.37 and $4.58 per MMBtu in the last 3 months of 2003 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2003). Spot prices at the Henry Hub have fallen somewhat from the unusually high levels that prevailed in the first half of the year and most of July, as mild summer weather in many areas of the country has reduced cooling demand and allowed record storage refill rates. As of September 5, working gas levels were only 5.5 percent below the 5-year average and, barring any

  18. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    7 per MMBtu during the last 3 months of 2003 and increase to $4.32 in January 2004 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2003). Prices have fallen somewhat from the unusually high levels that prevailed in the first half of the year and most of July, as mild summer weather and reduced industrial demand allowed record storage refill rates. As of October 3, 2003, working gas levels were only 1 percent below the 5-year average and, barring any disruptions, are on target to reach 3 Tcf by the end of

  19. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    8 per MMBtu during the last 2 months of 2003 and increase to $4.36 in January 2004 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2003). Prices have fallen in the past few months as mild weather and reduced industrial demand have allowed record storage refill rates. As of October 31, 2003, working gas levels had reached 3,155 Bcf, which is about 3 percent higher than the 5-year average and the first time since October 2002 that stocks exceeded the year-earlier levels. With the improved storage situation,

  20. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    4.41 per MMBtu in December 2003, although spot prices are expected to average $5.38 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 2003). The average wellhead price is expected to increase moderately to $4.56 during the first three months of 2004. Natural gas prices were lower in November than previously expected but forward price expectations remain sensitive to weather conditions. Prices increased rapidly in futures trading in early December as some cold weather moved into the Eastern United States and

  1. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5.57 per MMBtu in January 2004 and $5.40 in February, and then decrease to $4.77 in March as the heating season winds down (Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2004). Spot prices were quite variable in December, with prices at the Henry Hub starting the month at around $5.00 per MMBtu, spiking to roughly $7.00 in the middle of the month, then falling to $5.50 toward the end of the month as warmer-than-normal weather eased demand. Spot prices will likely remain well above $5.00 over the next few

  2. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    the rest of the winter and the first part of spring, with prices averaging $5.19 per MMBtu through March and $4.58 in April (Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2004). Wellhead prices for the current heating season (November 2003 through March 2004) are expected to average $4.99 per MMBtu, or about 7 percent higher than last winter's level. Spot prices at the Henry Hub averaged $5.90 per MMBtu in January as cold temperatures (6 percent colder than normal nationally and 19 percent colder than

  3. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    late spring, averaging $4.89 per MMBtu in March, $4.92 in April, and $4.84 in May (Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2004). Spot prices averaged $5.90 per MMBtu in January but fell to $4.80 in February as temperatures moderated and heating demand lessened. Still, underground storage facilities reported above-average withdrawals for February, leaving storage inventories at the beginning of March about 11 percent lower than the 5-year average. However, as of March 5, working gas levels were about

  4. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    prices will remain relatively high during the storage refill season (April through October) and the rest of 2004. Wellhead prices are expected to average $4.87 per MMBtu in April and May, $4.71 from June through October, and $5.12 for November and December (Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2004). Spot prices during the storage refill months will likely average $5.23 per MMBtu, virtually the same as the average price ($5.22) this past heating season. Overall in 2004, spot prices are expected to

  5. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    EIA projects that natural gas prices will continue at high levels through the rest of 2004 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2004). Wellhead prices are expected to average $5.74 per MMBtu in the summer months (June-August) and $6.00 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, while composite spot prices will likely stay well above $6.00 through December. Spot prices averaged about $5.35 per MMBtu in the first quarter of the year but have been above $6.00 since the beginning of May, as strong demand for

  6. Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that natural gas prices will remain high through the rest of 2004 (Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2004). Wellhead prices are expected to average $5.85 per MMBtu from July through December, while composite spot prices will likely stay well above $6.00. Spot prices at the Henry Hub averaged $6.34 per MMBtu in May and $6.27 in June, as strong demand for natural gas coupled with high petroleum prices has led to higher gas prices despite nearly

  7. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting Workshop 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the

  8. Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting

    Reports and Publications

    1999-01-01

    Final issue of this report. Presents a series of eight papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets.

  9. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  11. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    - no data available Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census ...

  12. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  13. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  14. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  15. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  16. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, second quarter 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The forecasts in this issue cover the second quarter of 1996 through the fourth quarter of 1997. Changes to macroeconomic measures by the Bureau of Economic Analysis have been incorporated into the STIFS model used.

  17. DOE-National-Cleanup-Workshop-Outlook-and-Challenges-John-Hale-III |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy DOE-National-Cleanup-Workshop-Outlook-and-Challenges-John-Hale-III DOE-National-Cleanup-Workshop-Outlook-and-Challenges-John-Hale-III John Hale III, Director of the Office of Small and Disadvantage Business Utilization (OSDBU) at the Department of Energy, spoke at the 1st Annual DOE National Cleanup Workshop, held in September 2015. Here is the slide presentation that was used at the workshop. DOE-National-Cleanup-Workshop-Outlook-and-Challenges-John-Hale-III.pdf (2.07

  18. EPRI conference proceedings: solar and wind power - 1982 status and outlook

    SciTech Connect

    DeMeo, E.A.

    1983-02-01

    Separate abstracts were prepared for 18 papers in this proceedings. Not separately abstracted are speeches and presentations covering: past progress and future directions in solar and wind power research and development, new directions in Federal solar electric programs, Solar Energy Research Institute status and outlook, ARCO Solar Industries' involvement in the production of potential solar electric technologies, wind power status and outlook, utility requirements, roles and rewards, and a panel discussion on solar and wind power status and outlook as viewed from industrial, utility, financial, and government perspectives. (LEW)

  19. LCG Persistency Framework (CORAL, COOL, POOL): Status and Outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Valassi, A.; Clemencic, M.; Dykstra, D.; Frank, M.; Front, D.; Govi, G.; Kalkhof, A.; Loth, A.; Nowak, M.; Pokorski, W.; Salnikov, A.; Schmidt, S.A.; Trentadue, R.; Wache, M.; Xie, Z.; /Princeton U.

    2012-04-19

    The Persistency Framework consists of three software packages (CORAL, COOL and POOL) addressing the data access requirements of the LHC experiments in different areas. It is the result of the collaboration between the CERN IT Department and the three experiments (ATLAS, CMS and LHCb) that use this software to access their data. POOL is a hybrid technology store for C++ objects, metadata catalogs and collections. CORAL is a relational database abstraction layer with an SQL-free API. COOL provides specific software tools and components for the handling of conditions data. This paper reports on the status and outlook of the project and reviews in detail the usage of each package in the three experiments.

  20. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  1. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Energy Saver

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program ...

  2. July 2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting: Maximizing its value for grid integration Introduction The forecasting of power generated by variable energy resources such as wind and solar has been the focus of academic and industrial research and development for as long as significant amounts of these renewable energy resources have been connected to the electric grid. The progress of forecasting capabilities has largely followed the penetration of the respective resources, with wind forecasting

  3. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  4. Impacts of Unconventional Gas Technology in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000

    Reports and Publications

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to represent unconventional gas technologies and their impacts on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

  5. Impact of Unconventional Gas Technology in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000

    Reports and Publications

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to represent unconventional gas technologies and their impacts on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

  6. Modifications to incorporate competitive electricity prices in the annual energy outlook 1998 - electricity market module

    SciTech Connect

    1998-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe modifications to the Electricity Market Module (EMM) for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998. It describes revisions necessary to derive competitive electricity prices and the corresponding reserve margins.

  7. Workshop to Examine Outlook for State and Federal Policies to Promote Geothermal Energy in the West

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Experts from around the country will discuss the outlook for state and federal policies to help expand geothermal energy at an all-day workshop scheduled for Reno, Nevada on October 4.

  8. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Presents an outlook on the future supply and demand for energy until the year 2030, with a major focus on oil, natural gas, coal, and renewable sources of energy. ...

  9. Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002

    Reports and Publications

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used to develop the National Energy Modeling System estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.

  10. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  11. Annual Energy Outlook 2014 foresees growth of LNG as a fuel for railroads

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    14, 2014 Annual Energy Outlook 2014 foresees growth of LNG as a fuel for railroads The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to play an increasing role in powering freight locomotives in the coming years. EIA's Reference case, in its recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2014 indicates that growing natural gas production and lower natural gas spot prices compared to crude oil prices could provide significant cost savings for locomotives that use LNG as a

  12. FROZEN HEAT A GLOBAL OUTLOOK ON METHANE GAS HYDRATES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    FROZEN HEAT A GLOBAL OUTLOOK ON METHANE GAS HYDRATES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Beaudoin, Y. C., Boswell, R., Dallimore, S. R., and Waite, W. (eds), 2014. Frozen Heat: A UNEP Global Outlook on Methane Gas Hydrates. United Nations Environment Programme, GRID-Arendal. © United Nations Environment Programme, 2014 This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the

  13. Fuel Cell Technologies Program - DOD-DOE Workshop: Shipboard APUs - Fuel Cell Commercial Outlook

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM DOD-DOE Workshop: Shipboard APUs Fuel Cell Commercial Outlook Pete Devlin U.S. Department of Energy Fuel Cell Technologies Program Outlook Market Transformation and Intergovernmental Coordination Manager March 29, 2011 Near Term Market Growth - Unit Shipments Back-up Power for Communication Applications Prime Power for Communication Applications Military Applications Remote Monitoring (i.e. surveillance, weather and water monitoring applications) External Battery

  14. Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Government Policies and Assessment of Future Opportunities | Department of Energy Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and Assessment of Future Opportunities Status and Outlook for the U.S. Non-Automotive Fuel Cell Industry: Impacts of Government Policies and Assessment of Future Opportunities This report prepared by Oak Ridge National Laboratory examines the progress that has been made in U.S. non-automotive fuel cell

  15. NETL Collaborates with Partners to Produce Global Outlook on Natural Gas

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Hydrates | Department of Energy NETL Collaborates with Partners to Produce Global Outlook on Natural Gas Hydrates NETL Collaborates with Partners to Produce Global Outlook on Natural Gas Hydrates March 17, 2015 - 10:53am Addthis Researchers at the Office of Fossil Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) were part of an international team, including the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), that contributed to a newly released report explaining the prospect of gas

  16. Savannah River Site 2012 Outlook: Transuranic Waste Program Set to Safely

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Reach Milestone | Department of Energy 2012 Outlook: Transuranic Waste Program Set to Safely Reach Milestone Savannah River Site 2012 Outlook: Transuranic Waste Program Set to Safely Reach Milestone January 1, 2012 - 12:00pm Addthis By May, Savannah River Nuclear Solutions expects to be shipping transuranic waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant almost continuously, using six TRUPACT-III shipping containers like the one shown here. By May, Savannah River Nuclear Solutions expects to be

  17. Introduction to energy storage with market analysis and outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Schmid, Robert; Pillot, Christophe

    2014-06-16

    At first, the rechargeable battery market in 2012 will be described by technology - lead acid, NiCd, NiMH, lithium ion - and application - portable electronics, power tools, e-bikes, automotive, energy storage. This will be followed by details of the lithium ion battery market value chain from the raw material to the final application. The lithium ion battery market of 2012 will be analyzed and split by applications, form factors and suppliers. There is also a focus on the cathode, anode, electrolyte and separator market included. This report will also give a forecast for the main trends and the market in 2020, 2025. To conclude, a forecast for the rechargeable battery market by application for 2025 will be presented. Since energy storage plays an important role for the growing Electric Vehicle (EV) market, this EV issue is closely considered throughout this analysis.

  18. Annual Energy Outlook 2016: Summary of Two Cases

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    University of Tulsa October 26, 2016 | Tulsa, OK by Adam Sieminski, Administrator Mission: EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the Nation's official source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United

  19. Annual Energy Outlook 2016: Summary of Two Cases

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    U.S. EIA China Visit November 2016 | China by Adam Sieminski, Administrator Mission: EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the Nation's official source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States

  20. Annual Energy Outlook 2016: Electricity Sector Preliminary Results

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Electricity Sector Preliminary Results For Electricity AEO2016 Working Group February 10, 2016| Washington, DC By EIA, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear & Renewables Analysis WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE Summary 2 Electricity Analysis Team February 10, 2016 * Address issues raised by stakeholders * Discuss recent developments- updates to generator status and capital costs * Present preliminary AEO2016 forecast

  1. Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference Case

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Annual Coal Report 2015 November 2016 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should not be construed as

  2. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 with Projections to 2035

    SciTech Connect

    2011-04-01

    The projections in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2011 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. But AEO2011 is not limited to the Reference case. It also includes 57 sensitivity cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy. Key results highlighted in AEO2011 include strong growth in shale gas production, growing use of natural gas and renewables in electric power generation, declining reliance on imported liquid fuels, and projected slow growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions even in the absence of new policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. AEO2011 also includes in-depth discussions on topics of special interest that may affect the energy outlook. They include: impacts of the continuing renewal and updating of Federal and State laws and regulations; discussion of world oil supply and price trends shaped by changes in demand from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or in supply available from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries; an examination of the potential impacts of proposed revisions to Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for light-duty vehicles and proposed new standards for heavy-duty vehicles; the impact of a series of updates to appliance standard alone or in combination with revised building codes; the potential impact on natural gas and crude oil production of an expanded offshore resource base

  3. Impact of oxygenates on petroleum refining part 2: Future outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Unzelman, G.H.

    1995-07-01

    With the move to a more conservative political outlook in the U.S. in 1995, some have voiced the opinion there may be resistance to the Clean Air Act and specifically to reformulated gasoline (RFG). There has been some evidence that substantiates early resistance to RFG, brought about by price hikes as high as 10 cents/gal at the pump. Pennsylvania, Maine, New York and Wisconsin have elected to {open_quotes}opt out{close_quotes} about 200,000 b/d of RFG. Certainly a move of this nature may slow the {open_quotes}opt in{close_quotes} movement in other areas of the U.S. On the other hand, the basic RFG program for nine critical areas in the U.S. will remain in place, and as air-quality limits are exceeded in other regions, they will be forced into the program. The movement toward cleaner air is worldwide, and the U.S. has been a leader in fuel reformulation for the past 25 years. While the movement may falter for various reasons, and fine tuning of regulations is inevitable, the ultimate result will be a U.S. gasoline pool that is largely reformulated - and the presence of oxygenates is fundamental to reformulation.

  4. Annual energy outlook 2009 with projections to 2030

    SciTech Connect

    2009-03-15

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO009), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030, based on results from EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). EIA published an 'early release' version of the AEO009 reference case in December 2008. The report begins with an 'Executive Summary' that highlights key aspects of the projections. It is followed by a 'Legislation and Regulations' section that discusses evolving legislation and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation, such as the Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008 (EIEA2008). The next section, 'Issues in Focus,' contains discussions of selected topics, including: the impacts of limitations on access to oil and natural gas resources on the Federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS); the implications of uncertainty about capital costs for new electricity generating plants; and the result of extending the Federal renewable production tax credit (PTC). It also discusses the relationship between natural gas and oil prices and the basis of the world oil price and production trends in AEO2009.

  5. December 2012 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    (STEO)  EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $110 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price will average $89 per barrel. The Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices are forecast to average $104 per barrel and $88 per barrel, respectively, in 2013. The projected WTI discount to Brent crude oil, which averaged $23 per barrel in November 2012, falls to an average of $11 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2013. This

  6. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  7. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American ...

  8. July 2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... Those costs comprise fuel costs from expensive generators ... an improved-accuracy forecast of the solar power generation. ... analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power ...

  9. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  10. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  11. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  12. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  13. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  14. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  15. Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with Projections to 2040

    SciTech Connect

    2013-04-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040, based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System. The report begins with an “Executive summary” that highlights key aspects of the projections. It is followed by a “Legislation and regulations” section that discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation and regulations, such as: Updated handling of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for industrial boilers and process heaters; New light-duty vehicle (LDV) greenhouse gas (GHG) and corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for model years 2017 to 2025; Reinstatement of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) after the court’s announcement of intent to vacate the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR); and Modeling of California’s Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), which allows for representation of a cap-and-trade program developed as part of California’s GHG reduction goals for 2020. The “Issues in focus” section contains discussions of selected energy topics, including a discussion of the results in two cases that adopt different assumptions about the future course of existing policies, with one case assuming the elimination of sunset provisions in existing policies and the other case assuming the elimination of the sunset provisions and the extension of a selected group of existing public policies—CAFE standards, appliance standards, and production tax credits. Other discussions include: oil price and production trends in AEO2013; U.S. reliance on imported liquids under a range of cases; competition between coal and natural gas in electric power generation; high and low nuclear scenarios through 2040; and the impact of growth in natural gas

  16. NP2010: An Assessment and Outlook for Nuclear Physics

    SciTech Connect

    Lancaster, James

    2014-05-22

    This grant provided partial support for the National Research Council’s (NRC) decadal survey of nuclear physics. This is part of NRC’s larger effort to assess and discuss the outlook for different fields in physics and astronomy, Physics 2010, which takes place approximately every ten years. A report has been prepared as a result of the study that is intended to inform those who are interested about the current status of research in this area and to help guide future developments of the field. A pdf version of the report is available for download, for free, at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13438. Among the principal conclusions reached in the report are that the nuclear physics program in the United States has been especially well managed, principally through a recurring long-range planning process conducted by the community, and that current opportunities developed pursuant to that planning process should be exploited. In the section entitled “Building the Foundation for the Future,” the report notes that attention needs to be paid to certain elements that are essential to the continued vitality of the field. These include ensuring that education and research at universities remain a focus for funding and that a plan be developed to ensure that forefront-computing resources, including exascale capabilities when developed, be made available to nuclear science researchers. The report also notes that nimbleness is essential for the United States to remain competitive in a rapidly expanding international nuclear physics arena and that streamlined and flexible procedures should be developed for initiating and managing smaller-scale nuclear science projects.

  17. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  18. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Biofuels Dialogue Series: Outlook for an Emerging

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Global Biofuels Market | Department of Energy Commerce Biofuels Dialogue Series: Outlook for an Emerging Global Biofuels Market U.S. Chamber of Commerce Biofuels Dialogue Series: Outlook for an Emerging Global Biofuels Market January 29, 2008 - 10:53am Addthis Remarks as Prepared For Delivery by Secretary Bodman Thank you very much, Bruce, for that kind introduction. My thanks also to Tom Donahue and the leadership of the Chamber for inviting me to be with you today. I was quite pleased to

  19. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  20. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  1. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  2. Biodiesel Supply and Consumption in the Short-Term Energy Outlook

    Reports and Publications

    2009-01-01

    The historical biodiesel consumption data published in the Energy Information Administration's Monthly Energy Review March 2009 edition were revised to account for imports and exports. Table 10.4 of the Monthly Energy Review was expanded to display biodiesel imports, exports, stocks, stock change, and consumption. Similar revisions were made in the April 2009 edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

  3. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  4. Energy Use in China: Sectoral Trends and Future Outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Nan; McNeil, Michael A.; Fridley, David; Lin, Jiang; Price,Lynn; de la Rue du Can, Stephane; Sathaye, Jayant; Levine, Mark

    2007-10-04

    This report provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis ofenergy consumption in China. It recalibrates official Chinese governmentstatistics by reallocating primary energy into categories more commonlyused in international comparisons. It also provides an analysis of trendsin sectoral energy consumption over the past decades. Finally, itassesses the future outlook for the critical period extending to 2020,based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity,availability of energy services, and energy intensities. The followingare some highlights of the study's findings: * A reallocation of sectorenergy consumption from the 2000 official Chinese government statisticsfinds that: * Buildings account for 25 percent of primary energy, insteadof 19 percent * Industry accounts for 61 percent of energy instead of 69percent * Industrial energy made a large and unexpected leap between2000-2005, growing by an astonishing 50 percent in the 3 years between2002 and 2005. * Energy consumption in the iron and steel industry was 40percent higher than predicted * Energy consumption in the cement industrywas 54 percent higher than predicted * Overall energy intensity in theindustrial sector grew between 2000 and 2003. This is largely due tointernal shifts towards the most energy-intensive sub-sectors, an effectwhich more than counterbalances the impact of efficiency increases. *Industry accounted for 63 percent of total primary energy consumption in2005 - it is expected to continue to dominate energy consumption through2020, dropping only to 60 percent by that year. * Even assuming thatgrowth rates in 2005-2020 will return to the levels of 2000-2003,industrial energy will grow from 42 EJ in 2005 to 72 EJ in 2020. * Thepercentage of transport energy used to carry passengers (instead offreight) will double from 37 percent to 52 percent between 2000 to 2020,.Much of this increase is due to private car ownership, which willincrease by a factor of 15 from 5.1 million in 2000 to 77

  5. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  6. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  8. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  9. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  10. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  11. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  12. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    to the Natural Gas Storage Regions December 2015 PDF ... Forecast February 2014 PDF Energy-weighted Industrial ... Probabilities of Possible Future Prices April 2010 PDF ...

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, ... Maps by energy source and topic, includes forecast maps. ... Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Price Viewer ...

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Data Figures Tables Custom Table Builder Real Prices Viewer Forecast Changes (PDF) Special ... Power Producer (IPP) consumption. c Renewable energy includes minor components of ...

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Forecast Highlights Global liquid fuels U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is more than 0.1 million b/d higher than in last month's STEO. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West

  17. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  18. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage contains 72-hr...

  19. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  20. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  1. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  2. Funding Opportunity Announcement: Solar Forecasting 2 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Solar Forecasting 2 Funding Opportunity Announcement: Solar Forecasting 2 Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Number: DE-FOA-0001649 Funding Amount: $10 million Description The Solar Forecasting 2 funding program will support projects that enable grid operators to better forecast how much solar energy will be added to the grid and accelerate the integration of these forecasts into energy management systems used by grid operators and utility companies. These tools will enable grid

  3. Assumptions to Annual Energy Outlook - Energy Information Administrati...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    also are evaluated for convergence. Each NEMS component represents the effects and costs of legislation and environmental regulations that affect that sector. NEMS accounts...

  4. Short-Term Energy Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasts August 2009

    Reports and Publications

    2009-01-01

    Supplement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook. Short-term projections for U.S. carbon dioxide emissions of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

  5. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  6. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  7. Outlook for renewable energy technologies: Assessment of international programs and policies

    SciTech Connect

    Branstetter, L.J.; Vidal, R.C.; Bruch, V.L.; Zurn, R.

    1995-02-01

    The report presents an evaluation of worldwide research efforts in three specific renewable energy technologies, with a view towards future United States (US) energy security, environmental factors, and industrial competitiveness. The overall energy technology priorities of foreign governments and industry leaders, as well as the motivating factors for these priorities, are identified and evaluated from both technological and policy perspectives. The specific technologies of interest are wind, solar thermal, and solar photovoltaics (PV). These program areas, as well as the overall energy policies of Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom (UK), Japan, Russia, and the European Community as a whole are described. The present and likely future picture for worldwide technological leadership in these technologies-is portrayed. The report is meant to help in forecasting challenges to US preeminence in the various technology areas, particularly over the next ten years, and to help guide US policy-makers as they try to identify specific actions which would help to retain and/or expand the US leadership position.

  8. Microsoft PowerPoint - DOE-National-Cleanup-Workshop-Outlook-and-Challenges-John-Hale-III.pptx

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    National Cleanup Workshop: DOE Acquisition Outlook and Challenges John Hale Director Office of Small And Disadvantaged Business Utilization September 30, 2015 "Building Sustainable Small Businesses to Enable the Department to Achieve its Mission Through Innovation and Creativity" 2 OSDBU Responsibility, Contribution & Tools Enable Program Offices to Perform their Mission & Unexpected Challenges * Build corporate pipeline & efficient supply chain * Target effective &

  9. Evaluation

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Savings Portfolio (122013) Energy Smart Grocer Impact Evaluation (102013) Energy Smart Industrial - Energy Management Pilot Impact Evaluation (22013) Clark PUD Home...

  10. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  11. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  12. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  13. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Global Liquid Fuels U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is more than 0.1 million b/d higher than in last month's STEO. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    U.S. Liquid Fuels U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.8 million b/d in 2016 and 8.7 million b/d in 2017. Forecast production in 2017 is more than 0.1 million b/d higher than in last month's STEO. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

  15. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  16. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Energy Saver

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by ...

  17. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  18. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  19. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  20. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  1. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at the desired locations in the United States. More accurate solar

  2. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  3. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  4. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  5. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  6. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Changes to the Natural Gas Storage...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    By law, EIA's data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views in this report therefore should ...

  7. DOE, EIA, and NASEO Host Winter Fuels Outlook Conference on October 8, 2013

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This supply and demand forecast event will address the effects of projected weather and market factors that may affect the supply, distribution and prices of petroleum, natural gas and electricity this winter.

  8. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  9. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-10-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  10. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  11. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  12. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

  13. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  14. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Jeffrey Logan, Daniel Steinberg, James McCall, James Richards, Benjamin Sigrin, and Gian Porro National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-66939 November 2016 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National

  15. International Energy Outlook 2016-Energy-related CO2 emissions - Energy

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Information Administration 9. Energy-related CO2 emissions print version Overview Because anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) result primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels, energy consumption is at the center of the climate change debate. In the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, world energy-related CO2 emissions [331] increase from 32.3 billion metric tons in 2012 to 35.6 billion metric tons in 2020 and to 43.2 billion metric tons in 2040. The

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Crude Oil Prices: Front-month futures prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in October reached the highest levels in more than a year before falling to $46.35 per barrel (b) and $44.66/b, respectively, on November 3 (Figure 1). Monthly average spot prices for Brent and WTI increased by $3/b and $5/b, respectively, from September to October. Although the outlook for global consumption of petroleum products remains relatively robust because of generally positive global

  17. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  18. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  19. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  20. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  1. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Coal Coal production in October 2016 was 73 million short tons (MMst), the highest monthly production level since October 2015, when it was 76 MMst. Forecast coal production declines by 150 MMst (17%) in 2016 to 747 MMst, which would be the lowest level of coal production since 1978. Forecast coal production increases by 3% in 2017. Electric power sector coal stockpiles decreased to 163 MMst in August 2016, down 5% from the previous month. Although coal stocks are at their lowest levels of the

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Electricity EIA forecasts total U.S. generation of electricity from utility-scale plants will be 11.2 terawatthours in 2016, up 0.2% from 2015. Total utility-scale generation grows by 0.5% in 2017. EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas will average 34% this year, and the share from coal will average 30%. Last year, both fuels supplied about 33% of total U.S. electricity generation. In 2017, natural gas and coal are forecast to generate about

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Natural Gas Natural gas marketed production is forecast to average 77.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2016, a 1.4 Bcf/d decline from the 2015 level, which would be the first annual decline since 2005. EIA expects production to start rising in November as a result of increases in drilling activity and infrastructure build-out that connects natural gas production to demand centers. In 2017, forecast natural gas production increases by an average of 2.9 Bcf/d from the 2016 level. Growing

  5. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  6. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  7. Wind speed forecasting in the central California wind resource area

    SciTech Connect

    McCarthy, E.F.

    1997-12-31

    A wind speed forecasting program was implemented in the summer seasons of 1985 - 87 in the Central California Wind Resource Area (WRA). The forecasting program is designed to use either meteorological observations from the WRA and local upper air observations or upper air observations alone to predict the daily average windspeed at two locations. Forecasts are made each morning at 6 AM and are valid for a 24 hour period. Ease of use is a hallmark of the program as the daily forecast can be made using data entered into a programmable HP calculator. The forecasting program was the first step in a process to examine whether the electrical energy output of an entire wind power generation facility or defined subsections of the same facility could be predicted up to 24 hours in advance. Analysis of the results of the summer season program using standard forecast verification techniques show the program has skill over persistence and climatology.

  8. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf] campaign was scheduled to take place from 15 July

  9. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf] campaign was scheduled to take place from 15 July

  10. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  11. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association Team roster: Dan Paikowsky, Management; Christian Bain, Entrepreneurship; Noah Meunier, Mechanical Engineering &

  12. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC). Begin Module >> (471

  13. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. Report of the External Peer Review Panel (777.84 KB) More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  14. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  15. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore ...

  16. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addthis Related Articles DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Publishes Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  18. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  19. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  20. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-10-02

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  1. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  2. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  3. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  4. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  5. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Saver

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  6. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  7. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  8. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9 1990's NA 2000's NA NA NA 66 0 0 0 2010's 0 11

    Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9 1990's NA NA 2000's 60,249 494,795 453,093 435,199 458,675 491,481 511,488 465,939 490,024 479,741 2010's 476,855 448,967 433,713 432,497 433,227 419,749

    Short-Term Energy Outlook Release Date: November 8, 2016 | Next Release Date: December 6, 2016 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables

  9. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  10. Comparative Analysis of Modeling Studies on China's Future Energy and Emissions Outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David

    2010-09-01

    The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specific section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO{sub 2} savings potential

  11. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  12. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  13. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  14. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  15. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  16. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  17. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  18. Assumptions and Expectations for Annual Energy Outlook 2014: Oil and Gas Working Group

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    4: Oil and Gas Working Group AEO2014 Oil and Gas Supply Working Group Meeting Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis July 25, 2013 | Washington, DC http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/ WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE Introduction/Background Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis Working Group Presentation for Discussion Purposes Washington, DC, July 25, 2013 DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE as results are

  19. Assumptions and Expectations for Annual Energy Outlook 2017: Oil and Gas Working Group

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Oil and Gas Working Group AEO2017 Oil and Gas Supply Working Group Meeting Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis August 25, 2016| Washington, DC http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/workinggroup/ WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE Overview * "Short" AEO2017 with extension of model projection period to 2050 * World oil prices * Upstream - Offshore Gulf of Mexico and Alaska - Feedback on AEO2016 results *

  20. The outlook for the economic and environmental performance of australia's national electricity market in 2030

    SciTech Connect

    Simshauser, Paul; Doan, Thao; Lacey, Ben

    2007-07-15

    CO{sub 2} emissions in Australia's NEM have increased from 117 Mt in 1990 to 169 Mt in 2002. Without policy intervention, emissions are forecast to further rise to 265 Mt by 2030. An analysis of the economic and environmental impact of various generation technology options suggests that the most likely technology glide path will be gas-fired generation in the medium term, with IGCC + CCS or nuclear being the dominant baseload technology over the long run. (author)

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    2 : Energy Prices Either scripts and active content are not permitted to run or Adobe Flash Player version ${version_major}.${version_minor}.${version_revision} or greater is not installed. Get Adobe Flash Player a Average for all sulfur contents. b Average self-service cash price. c Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude. - = no data available Notes: Prices are not adjusted for inflation. The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with estimates and

  2. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  3. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  4. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  5. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2016-07-12

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  6. Iran`s petroleum policy: Current trends and the future outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Pezeshki, S.; Fesharaki, F.

    1994-12-01

    The Iranian economy and political situation have undergone radical changes since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The excesses of the early years of the revolution have gradually given way to moderation and a more pragmatic economic policy--based on the principles of the free market. The petroleum policy, as a subset of the economic policies, has been somewhat affected by the political and economic developments in Iran. The petroleum policy has changed from a position of no foreign participation to a position that includes a desire for foreign participation, the text of a model contract, and an attempt to introduce new technologies in the upstream sector. This report provides an overview of the key issues facing the Iranian oil industry and the economic context in which the oil industry is operating in Iran. It describes the evolution of policies meant to move the oil industry toward the free market; it discusses Iran`s oil trading partners, the outlook for refining and project investments, and current and likely future developments in the natural gas and petrochemical sectors. In short, the report provides an up-to-date assessment of the Iranian petroleum sector and its likely evolution in the future.

  7. Japan's Residential Energy Demand Outlook to 2030 Considering Energy Efficiency Standards"Top-Runner Approach"

    SciTech Connect

    Lacommare, Kristina S H; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris

    2008-05-15

    As one of the measures to achieve the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions agreed to in the"Kyoto Protocol," an institutional scheme for determining energy efficiency standards for energy-consuming appliances, called the"Top-Runner Approach," was developed by the Japanese government. Its goal is to strengthen the legal underpinnings of various energy conservation measures. Particularly in Japan's residential sector, where energy demand has grown vigorously so far, this efficiency standard is expected to play a key role in mitigating both energy demand growth and the associated CO2 emissions. This paper presents an outlook of Japan's residential energy demand, developed by a stochastic econometric model for the purpose of analyzing the impacts of the Japan's energy efficiency standards, as well as the future stochastic behavior of income growth, demography, energy prices, and climate on the future energy demand growth to 2030. In this analysis, we attempt to explicitly take into consideration more than 30 kinds of electricity uses, heating, cooling and hot water appliances in order to comprehensively capture the progress of energy efficiency in residential energy end-use equipment. Since electricity demand, is projected to exhibit astonishing growth in Japan's residential sector due to universal increasing ownership of electric and other appliances, it is important to implement an elaborate efficiency standards policy for these appliances.

  8. Modeling renewable portfolio standards for the annual energy outlook 1998 - electricity market module

    SciTech Connect

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Load and Demand-Side Management (LDSM) Submodule. For the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), the EMM has been modified to represent Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), which are included in many of the Federal and state proposals for deregulating the electric power industry. A RPS specifies that electricity suppliers must produce a minimum level of generation using renewable technologies. Producers with insufficient renewable generating capacity can either build new plants or purchase {open_quotes}credits{close_quotes} from other suppliers with excess renewable generation. The representation of a RPS involves revisions to the ECP, EFD, and the EFP. The ECP projects capacity additions required to meet the minimum renewable generation levels in future years. The EFD determines the sales and purchases of renewable credits for the current year. The EFP incorporates the cost of building capacity and trading credits into the price of electricity.

  9. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  10. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  11. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  12. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  13. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  14. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  15. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications compares the annual lighting energy consumption in the U.S. with and ...

  16. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  17. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  18. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  19. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  20. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.