National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for outage scenario probabilities

  1. Outage Log

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Queue Look Scheduled Outages Outage Log Science Gateway Status Login Node Status ... It is a historical record and may not be updated while a system event is in progress. ...

  2. NERSC Scheduled System Outages

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Scheduled System Outages NERSC Scheduled System Outages Last edited: 2016-04-29 11:35:00

  3. Improving Outage Performance: Outage Optimization Process

    SciTech Connect

    LaPlatney, Jere J.

    2006-07-01

    Planned outage performance is a key measure of how well an Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is operated. Performance during planned outages strongly affects virtually all of a plant's performance metrics. In recognition of this fact, NPP operators worldwide have and continue to focus on improving their outage performance. The process of improving outage performance is commonly referred to as 'Outage Optimization' in the industry. This paper starts with a summary of the principles of Outage Optimization. It then provides an overview of a process in common use in the USA and elsewhere to manage the improvement of planned outages. The program described is comprehensive in that it involves managing improvement in both the Preparation and Execution phases of outage management. (author)

  4. Systems Outage Notification Policy

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    System Outages Systems Outage Notification Policy To be considered a scheduled outage, the user community must be notified of the need for a maintenance event window no less than 24 hours in advance of the outage (emergency fixes). Users will be notified of regularly scheduled maintenance in advance, on a schedule that provides sufficient notification, and no less than 72 hours prior to the event, and preferably as much as seven calendar days prior. If that regularly scheduled maintenance is not

  5. Refinery Outages: Fall 2016

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Full report Previous Issues First Half of 2016 (March 2016) Fourth-Quarter (October 2015) First Half of 2015 (February 2015) Fall 2014 (November 2014) First Half of 2014 (February 2014) March 2011 through June 2011 (April 2011) October 2010 through January 2011(November 2010) Refinery Outages: Fall 2016 Release date: November 16, 2016 This report examines U.S. refinery outages planned for September 2016 through December 2016 and the implications for available refinery production capacity,

  6. Shopping for outage management systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chou, Y.C.; Konneker, L.K.; Watkins, T.R.

    1995-12-31

    Customer service is becoming increasingly important to electric utilities. Outage management is an important part of customer service. Good outage management means quickly responding to outages and keeping customers informed about outages. Each outage equals lost customer satisfaction and lost revenue. Outage management is increasingly important because of new competition among utilities for customers, pressure from regulators, and internal pressure to cut costs. The market has several existing software products for outage management. How does a utility judge whether these products satisfy their specific needs? Technology is changing rapidly to support outage management. Which technology is proven and cost-effective? The purpose of this paper is to outline the procedure for evaluating outage management systems, and to discuss the key features to look for. It also gives our opinion of the features that represent state of the art. This paper will not discuss specific products or list vendors names.

  7. Track NERSC Outages in Google Calendar

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Outages in Google Calendar Track NERSC Outages in Google Calendar March 22, 2013 by Jack Deslippe Outages are now available in Google calendar form. You can subscribe to this...

  8. OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    OutageMapURL Phases Energy Services County Electric Power Assn http outages county org A N Electric Coop Virginia AEP Generating Company https www aepaccount com zipr...

  9. outages | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    outages Home Graham7781's picture Submitted by Graham7781(2017) Super contributor 29 October, 2012 - 14:46 East Coast Utilities prepare for Hurricane Sandy East Coast Hurricane...

  10. Overview of Common Mode Outages in Power Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Papic, Milorad; Awodele , Kehinde; Billinton, Roy; Dent, Chris; Eager, Dan; Hamoud, Gomaa; Jirutitijaroen, Panida; Kumbale, Murali; Mitra, Joydeep; Samaan, Nader A.; Schneider, Alex; Singh, Chanan

    2012-11-10

    This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Probability Applications for Common Mode Events (PACME) Task Force under the Reliability Risk and Probability Applications (RRPA) Subcommittee. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about dealing with common-mode outages in power systems reliability analysis. This effort involves reviewing published literature and presenting state-of-the-art research and practical applications in the area of common-mode outages. Evaluation of available outage statistics show that there is a definite need for collective effort from academia and industry to not only recommended procedures for data collection and monitoring but also to provide appropriate mathematical models to assess such events.

  11. A framework and review of customer outage costs: Integration and analysis of electric utility outage cost surveys

    SciTech Connect

    Lawton, Leora; Sullivan, Michael; Van Liere, Kent; Katz, Aaron; Eto, Joseph

    2003-11-01

    A clear understanding of the monetary value that customers place on reliability and the factors that give rise to higher and lower values is an essential tool in determining investment in the grid. The recent National Transmission Grid Study recognizes the need for this information as one of growing importance for both public and private decision makers. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has undertaken this study, as a first step toward addressing the current absence of consistent data needed to support better estimates of the economic value of electricity reliability. Twenty-four studies, conducted by eight electric utilities between 1989 and 2002 representing residential and commercial/industrial (small, medium and large) customer groups, were chosen for analysis. The studies cover virtually all of the Southeast, most of the western United States, including California, rural Washington and Oregon, and the Midwest south and east of Chicago. All variables were standardized to a consistent metric and dollar amounts were adjusted to the 2002 CPI. The data were then incorporated into a meta-database in which each outage scenario (e.g., the lost of electric service for one hour on a weekday summer afternoon) is treated as an independent case or record both to permit comparisons between outage characteristics and to increase the statistical power of analysis results. Unadjusted average outage costs and Tobit models that estimate customer damage functions are presented. The customer damage functions express customer outage costs for a given outage scenario and customer class as a function of location, time of day, consumption, and business type. One can use the damage functions to calculate outage costs for specific customer types. For example, using the customer damage functions, the cost experienced by an ''average'' customer resulting from a 1 hour summer afternoon outage is estimated to be approximately $3 for a residential customer, $1,200 for small

  12. RESOLVED: Projectb filesystem outage July 9, 2012

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    filesystem outage July 9, 2012 July 9, 2012 The projectb filesystem had a hardware failure that potentially generated IO errors. The filesystem logs indicate that the...

  13. Property:OutagePhoneNumber | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    OutagePhoneNumber Jump to: navigation, search Property Name OutagePhoneNumber Property Type String Description An outage hotline or 24-hour customer service number Note: uses...

  14. GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF AN ADVANCED OUTAGE CONTROL CENTER TO IMPROVE OUTAGE COORDINATION, PROBLEM RESOLUTION, AND OUTAGE RISK MANAGEMENT

    SciTech Connect

    Germain, Shawn St; Farris, Ronald; Whaley, April M; Medema, Heather; Gertman, David

    2014-09-01

    This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. Managing NPP outages is a complex and difficult task due to the large number of maintenance and repair activities that are accomplished in a short period of time. During an outage, the outage control center (OCC) is the temporary command center for outage managers and provides several critical functions for the successful execution of the outage schedule. Essentially, the OCC functions to facilitate information inflow, assist outage management in processing information, and to facilitate the dissemination of information to stakeholders. Currently, outage management activities primarily rely on telephone communication, face to face reports of status, and periodic briefings in the OCC. It is a difficult task to maintain current the information related to outage progress and discovered conditions. Several advanced communication and collaboration technologies have shown promise for facilitating the information flow into, across, and out of the OCC. The use of these technologies will allow information to be shared electronically, providing greater amounts of real-time information to the decision makers and allowing OCC coordinators to meet with supporting staff remotely. Passively monitoring status electronically through advances in the areas of mobile worker technologies, computer-based procedures, and automated work packages will reduce the current reliance on manually

  15. North American Electric Reliability Council Power Outage Update...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    will continue to experience rotating outages due to generating capacity availability. North American Electric Reliability Council Power Outage Update (48.2 KB) More Documents & ...

  16. Property:OutageMapURL | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    + Agralite Electric Coop + https:pyxis-oms.comOutageMapAgraliteOutageMap.html + Alfalfa Electric Coop, Inc + https:ebill.alfalfaelectric.comwoViewermapviewer.html?config...

  17. Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Guidelines Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages ... Learn more Certify your electrical systems-If your house sustains flood or wind damage ...

  18. Managing turbine-generator outages by computer

    SciTech Connect

    Reinhart, E.R. [Reinhart and Associates, Inc., Austin, TX (United States)

    1997-09-01

    This article describes software being developed to address the need for computerized planning and documentation programs that can help manage outages. Downsized power-utility companies and the growing demand for independent, competitive engineering and maintenance services have created a need for a computer-assisted planning and technical-direction program for turbine-generator outages. To meet this need, a software tool is now under development that can run on a desktop or laptop personal computer to assist utility personnel and technical directors in outage planning. Total Outage Planning Software (TOPS), which runs on Windows, takes advantage of the mass data storage available with compact-disc technology by archiving the complete outage documentation on CD. Previous outage records can then be indexed, searched, and viewed on a computer with the click of a mouse. Critical-path schedules, parts lists, parts order tracking, work instructions and procedures, custom data sheets, and progress reports can be generated by computer on-site during an outage.

  19. Next Generation Safeguards Initiative: Analysis of Probability of Detection of Plausible Diversion Scenarios at Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plants Using Advanced Safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Hase, Kevin R.; Hawkins Erpenbeck, Heather; Boyer, Brian D.

    2012-07-10

    Over the last decade, efforts by the safeguards community, including inspectorates, governments, operators and owners of centrifuge facilities, have given rise to new possibilities for safeguards approaches in enrichment plants. Many of these efforts have involved development of new instrumentation to measure uranium mass and uranium-235 enrichment and inspection schemes using unannounced and random site inspections. We have chosen select diversion scenarios and put together a reasonable system of safeguards equipment and safeguards approaches and analyzed the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed safeguards approach by predicting the probability of detection of diversion in the chosen safeguards approaches. We analyzed the effect of redundancy in instrumentation, cross verification of operator instrumentation by inspector instrumentation, and the effects of failures or anomalous readings on verification data. Armed with these esults we were able to quantify the technical cost benefit of the addition of certain instrument suites and show the promise of these new systems.

  20. Track NERSC Outages in Google Calendar

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Track NERSC Outages in Google Calendar Track NERSC Outages in Google Calendar March 22, 2013 by Jack Deslippe Outages are now available in Google calendar form. You can subscribe to this calendar by following the link, http://goo.gl/A4n3k, and then clicking the add button on the bottom right. If you find any issues with the calendar content, please contact NERSC consultants by email at consult(at)nersc.gov. Subscribe via RSS Subscribe Browse by Date October 2016 September 2016 August 2016 June

  1. Potomac River Project Outage Schedule Clarification | Department...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) evised plan for transmission outages for the 230 kV circuits ...

  2. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-12-31

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance.

  3. Contingency Analysis of Cascading Line Outage Events

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas L Baldwin; Magdy S Tawfik; Miles McQueen

    2011-03-01

    As the US power systems continue to increase in size and complexity, including the growth of smart grids, larger blackouts due to cascading outages become more likely. Grid congestion is often associated with a cascading collapse leading to a major blackout. Such a collapse is characterized by a self-sustaining sequence of line outages followed by a topology breakup of the network. This paper addresses the implementation and testing of a process for N-k contingency analysis and sequential cascading outage simulation in order to identify potential cascading modes. A modeling approach described in this paper offers a unique capability to identify initiating events that may lead to cascading outages. It predicts the development of cascading events by identifying and visualizing potential cascading tiers. The proposed approach was implemented using a 328-bus simplified SERC power system network. The results of the study indicate that initiating events and possible cascading chains may be identified, ranked and visualized. This approach may be used to improve the reliability of a transmission grid and reduce its vulnerability to cascading outages.

  4. Outage project productivity improvement of TVA fossil

    SciTech Connect

    Picard, H.E.; Seay, C.R. Jr.

    1996-10-01

    Competition in the utility industry forces management to look closely at the cost effectiveness of power plant outage projects. At TVA Fossil and Hydro Power, innovative work measurement is proving effective as a project management tool to do more with less. Labor-hours to complete outage work scopes are reduced by some 20 to 30%, not by working harder or sacrificing safety, or quality, but by working and managing smarter. Fossil power plant outages and shutdowns are costly. They are labor-intensive construction projects, often with expanding work scope, and executed on a fast track. Outage work is inherently complex and dynamic, and often unpredictable. Many activities and tasks must be integrated, coordinated and completed safely and efficiently by multiple crafts and work groups. As a result, numerous productivity factors can influence the cost and schedule of outage completion. This provides owners, contractors and labor with unique opportunities for competitive advantage--by making radical changes in how they manage labor-hours and time.

  5. Outage management and health physics issue, 2007

    SciTech Connect

    Agnihotri, Newal

    2007-05-15

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: India: a potential commercial opportunity, a U.S. Department of Commerce Report, by Joe Neuhoff and Justin Rathke; The changing climate for nuclear energy, by Skip Bowman, Nuclear Energy Insitute; Selecting protective clothing, by J. Mark Price, Southern California Edison; and Succssful refurbishment outage, by Sudesh K. Gambhir, Omaha Public Power District. Industry innovation articles in this issue are: Containment radiation monitoring spiking, by Michael W. Lantz and Robert Routolo, Arizona Public Service Company; Improved outage performance, by Michael Powell and Troy Wilfong, Arizona Public Service Company, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station; Stop repacking valves and achieve leak-free performance, by Kenneth Hart, PPL Susquehanna LLC; and Head assembly upgrade package, by Timothy Petit, Dominion Nuclear.

  6. Outage managment and health physics issue, 2008

    SciTech Connect

    Agnihotri, Newal

    2008-05-15

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles include: Outage optimization initiatives, by George B. Beam, AREVA NP, Inc.; New plant based on excellent track records, by Jim Scarola, Progress Energy; Meeting customer needs and providing environmental benefits, by Peter S. Hastings, Duke Energy; Plants with 3-D design, by Jack A. Bailey, Tennessee Valley Authority; and Highest quality with exceptional planning, by Jason A. Walls, Duke Energy. Industry innovation articles include: Integrated exposure reduction plan, by Ed Wolfe, Exelon; Performance-based radiation worker training, by Joe Giuffre and Timothy Vriezerma, American Electric Power.

  7. August 14, 2003 Power Outages … Announcement

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Ellen P. Vancko evancko@nerc.com Power Outage Update ⎯ 8/16/2003 11 a.m. EDT The bulk electric transmission system in the United States and Canada has been restored and is operating reliably. Many of the generating units that tripped off line during the outage have returned to service and additional generating units are expected to return to service over the weekend. Virtually all customers have been returned to electric service, although some customers will continue to experience rotating

  8. Benchmark Report on Key Outage Attributes: An Analysis of Outage Improvement Opportunities and Priorities

    SciTech Connect

    Germain, Shawn St.; Farris, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Advanced Outage Control Center (AOCC), is a multi-year pilot project targeted at Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) outage improvement. The purpose of this pilot project is to improve management of NPP outages through the development of an AOCC that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This report documents the results of a benchmarking effort to evaluate the transferability of technologies demonstrated at Idaho National Laboratory and the primary pilot project partner, Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station. The initial assumption for this pilot project was that NPPs generally do not take advantage of advanced technology to support outage management activities. Several researchers involved in this pilot project have commercial NPP experience and believed that very little technology has been applied towards outage communication and collaboration. To verify that the technology options researched and demonstrated through this pilot project would in fact have broad application for the US commercial nuclear fleet, and to look for additional outage management best practices, LWRS program researchers visited several additional nuclear facilities.

  9. Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 May 10, 2012 Due to a scheduled maintenance for the License Servers, most of...

  10. Outage management and health physics issue, 2009

    SciTech Connect

    Agnihotri, Newal

    2009-05-15

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles include the following: Planning and scheduling to minimize refueling outage, by Pat McKenna, AmerenUE; Prioritizing safety, quality and schedule, by Tom Sharkey, Dominion; Benchmarking to high standards, by Margie Jepson, Energy Nuclear; Benchmarking against U.S. standards, by Magnox North, United Kingdom; Enabling suppliers for new build activity, by Marcus Harrington, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy; Identifying, cultivating and qualifying suppliers, by Thomas E. Silva, AREVA NP; Creating new U.S. jobs, by Francois Martineau, Areva NP. Industry innovation articles include: MSL Acoustic source load reduction, by Amir Shahkarami, Exelon Nuclear; Dual Methodology NDE of CRDM nozzles, by Michael Stark, Dominion Nuclear; and Electronic circuit board testing, by James Amundsen, FirstEnergy Nuclear Operating Company. The plant profile article is titled The future is now, by Julia Milstead, Progress Energy Service Company, LLC.

  11. Outage management and health physics issue, 2006

    SciTech Connect

    Agnihotri, Newal

    2006-05-15

    The focus of the May-June issue is on outage management and health physics. Major articles/reports in this issue include: A design with experience for the U.S., by Michael J. Wallace, Constellation Generation Group; Hope to be among the first, by Randy Hutchinson, Entergy Nuclear; Plans to file COLs in 2008, by Garry Miller, Progress Energy; Evolution of ICRP's recommendations, by Lars-Erik Holm, ICRP; European network on education and training in radiological protection, by Michele Coeck, SCK-CEN, Belgium; Outage managment: an important tool for improving nuclear power plant performance, by Thomas Mazour and Jiri Mandula, IAEA, Austria; and Plant profile: Exploring new paths to excellence, by Anne Thomas, Exelon Nuclear.

  12. Advanced Outage and Control Center: Strategies for Nuclear Plant Outage Work Status Capabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Gregory Weatherby

    2012-05-01

    The research effort is a part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a research and development program sponsored by the Department of Energy, performed in close collaboration with industry to provide the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS Program serves to help the US nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The Outage Control Center (OCC) Pilot Project was directed at carrying out the applied research for development and pilot of technology designed to enhance safe outage and maintenance operations, improve human performance and reliability, increase overall operational efficiency, and improve plant status control. Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Unfortunately, many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980’s. They depend heavily upon large teams of staff, multiple work and coordination locations, and manual administrative actions that require large amounts of paper. Previous work in human reliability analysis suggests that many repetitive tasks, including paper work tasks, may have a failure rate of 1.0E-3 or higher (Gertman, 1996). With between 10,000 and 45,000 subtasks being performed during an outage (Gomes, 1996), the opportunity for human error of some consequence is a realistic concern. Although a number of factors exist that can make these errors recoverable, reducing and effectively coordinating the sheer number of tasks to be performed, particularly those that are error prone, has the potential to enhance outage efficiency and safety. Additionally, outage management requires precise coordination of work groups that do not always share similar objectives. Outage

  13. How individual traces and interactive timelines could support outage execution - Toward an outage historian concept

    SciTech Connect

    Parfouru, S.; De-Beler, N.

    2012-07-01

    In the context of a project that is designing innovative ICT-based solutions for the organizational concept of outage management, we focus on the informational process of the OCR (Outage Control Room) underlying the execution of the outages. Informational process are based on structured and unstructured documents that have a key role in the collaborative processes and management of the outage. We especially track the structured and unstructured documents, electronically or not, from creation to sharing. Our analysis allows us to consider that the individual traces produced by an individual participant with a specific role could be multi-purpose and support sharing between participants without creating duplication of work. The ultimate goal is to be able to generate an outage historian, that is not just focused on highly structured information, which could be useful to improve the continuity of information between participants. We study the implementation of this approach through web technologies and social media tools to address this issue. We also investigate the issue of data access through interactive visualization timelines coupled with other modality's to assist users in the navigation and exploration of the proposed historian. (authors)

  14. Application of Standard Maintenance Windows in PHWR Outage

    SciTech Connect

    Fuming Jiang

    2006-07-01

    The concept of Standard Maintenance Windows has been widely used in the planned outage of light water reactor in the world. However, due to the specific feature of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR), it has not come to a consensus for the PHWR owners to adopt Standard Maintenance Windows for planned outage aiming at the optimization of outage duration. Third Qinshan Nuclear Power Company (TQNPC), with their experience gained in the previous outages and with reference to other PHWR power plants, has identified a set of Standard Maintenance Windows for planned outage. It can be applied to similar PHWR plants and with a few windows that are specific to Qinshan Phase III NPP. The use of these Standard Maintenance Windows in planned outage has been proved to be effective in control shutdown nuclear safety, minimize the unavailability of safety system, improve the efficient utilization of outage duration, and improved the flexibility of outage schedule in the case of emergency issue, which forced the revision of outage schedule. It has also formed a solid foundation for benchmarking. The identification of Standard Maintenance Windows and its application will be discussed with relevant cases for the common improvement of outage duration. (author)

  15. Plant maintenance and outage management issue, 2005

    SciTech Connect

    Agnihotri, Newal (ed.)

    2005-01-15

    The focus of the January-February issue is on plant maintenance and outage managment. Major articles/reports in this issue include: Dawn of a new era, by Joe Colvin, Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI); Plant profile: Beloyarsk NPP, Russia, by Nikolai Oshkanov, Beloyarsk NPP, Russia; Improving economic performance, by R. Spiegelberg-Planner, John De Mella, and Marius Condu, IAEA; A model for improving performance, by Pet Karns, MRO Software; ASME codes and standards, by Shannon Burke, ASME International; and, Refurbishment programs, by Craig S. Irish, Nuclear Logistics, Inc.

  16. Homeowners: Respond to Power Outages | Department of Energy

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Power Outages After a disaster, electric utilities and government officials will first work to restore power to critical infrastructure like power plants and transmission lines, ...

  17. Outlook for Refinery Outages and Available Refinery Capacity...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    of gasoline and distillate, and to include a more detailed consideration of the impact of unexpected outages on product supplies. This report reviews the potential...

  18. Outlook for Refinery Outages and Available Refinery Capacity...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    level of refinery outages outlined in this report. This report does not consider the impacts of refined product logistics and distribution, which could affect the movement of...

  19. Development of Improved Graphical Displays for an Advanced Outage Control Center, Employing Human Factors Principles for Outage Schedule Management

    SciTech Connect

    St Germain, Shawn Walter; Farris, Ronald Keith; Thomas, Kenneth David

    2015-09-01

    The long-term viability of existing nuclear power plants in the United States (U.S.) is dependent upon a number of factors, including maintaining high capacity factors, maintaining nuclear safety, and reducing operating costs, particularly those associated with refueling outages. Refueling outages typically take 20-30 days, and for existing light water NPPs in the U.S., the reactor cannot be in operation during the outage. Furthermore, given that many NPPs generate between $1-1.5 million/day in revenue when in operation, there is considerable interest in shortening the length of refueling outages. Yet refueling outages are highly complex operations, involving multiple concurrent and dependent activities that are somewhat challenging to coordinate; therefore, finding ways to improve refueling outage performance, while maintaining nuclear safety has proven to be difficult. The Advanced Outage Control Center (AOCC) project is a research and development (R&D) demonstration activity under the LWRS Program. LWRS is an R&D program that works closely with industry R&D programs to establish technical foundations for the licensing and managing of long-term, safe, and economical operation of current fleet of NPPs. As such, the LWRS Advanced Outage Control Center project has the goal of improving the management of commercial NPP refueling outages. To accomplish this goal, INL is developing an advanced outage control center (OCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. The overall focus is on developing an AOCC with the following capabilities that enables plant and OCC staff to; Collaborate in real-time to address emergent issues; Effectively communicate outage status to all workers involved in the outage; Effectively communicate discovered conditions in the field to the OCC; Provide real-time work status; Provide automatic pending support notifications

  20. Fermi 2: Independent safety assessment of refueling outage

    SciTech Connect

    Arora, H.O. [Detroit Edison, MI (United States)

    1994-12-31

    Industry experience and studies conducted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) have shown that plants are susceptible to a variety of events that can challenge safety during shutdowns. While these events have neither posed nor indicated an undue risk to public health and safety, they do serve to underscore the importance of effective outage planning and control. The NUMARC 91-06 guidelines suggest that proper planning and execution of outage activities can reduce the likelihood and consequences of events, which ultimately enhances safety during shutdown. The Fermi 2, Independent Safety Engineering Group (ISEG) is charged with the independent safety review of the refueling outage plan and its implementation. The ISEG is responsible for performing a detailed and critical review of proposed outage plan prior to the start of the outage, maintaining surveillance of the adequacy and consistency of the {open_quotes}defense-in-depth{close_quotes} provided during the outage, reviewing the outage plan changes for potential vulnerabilities that could affect safety functions, and investigating selected events that emerge during the course of the outage.

  1. Analysis of scrams and forced outages at boiling water reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Earle, R. T.; Sullivan, W. P.; Miller, K. R.; Schwegman, W. J.

    1980-07-01

    This report documents the results of a study of scrams and forced outages at General Electric Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) operating in the United States. This study was conducted for Sandia Laboratories under a Light Water Reactor Safety Program which it manages for the United States Department of Energy. Operating plant data were used to identify the causes of scrams and forced outages. Causes of scrams and forced outages have been summarized as a function of operating plant and plant age and also ranked according to the number of events per year, outage time per year, and outage time per event. From this ranking, identified potential improvement opportunities were evaluated to determine the associated benefits and impact on plant availability.

  2. A stochastic model for the measurement of electricity outage costs

    SciTech Connect

    Grosfeld-Nir, A.; Tishler, A. (Tel Aviv Univ. (Israel))

    1993-01-01

    The measurement of customer outage costs has recently become an important subject of research for electric utilities. This paper uses a stochastic dynamic model as the starting point in developing a market-based method for the evaluation of outage costs. Specifically, the model postulates that once an electricity outage occurs, all production activity stops. Full production is resumed once the electricity outage is over. This process repeats itself indefinitely. The business customer maximizes his expected discounted profits (the expected value of the firm), taking into account his limited ability to respond to repeated random electricity outages. The model is applied to 11 industrial branches in Israel. The estimates exhibit a large variation across branches. 34 refs., 3 tabs.

  3. U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force Recommendations U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the ...

  4. Technology Integration Initiative In Support of Outage Management

    SciTech Connect

    Gregory Weatherby; David Gertman

    2012-07-01

    Plant outage management is a high priority concern for the nuclear industry from cost and safety perspectives. Often, command and control during outages is maintained in the outage control center where many of the underlying technologies supporting outage control are the same as those used in the 1980’s. This research reports on the use of advanced integrating software technologies and hand held mobile devices as a means by which to reduce cycle time, improve accuracy, and enhance transparency among outage team members. This paper reports on the first phase of research supported by the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program that is performed in close collaboration with industry to examine the introduction of newly available technology allowing for safe and efficient outage performance. It is thought that this research will result in: improved resource management among various plant stakeholder groups, reduced paper work, and enhanced overall situation awareness for the outage control center management team. A description of field data collection methods, including personnel interview data, success factors, end-user evaluation and integration of hand held devices in achieving an integrated design are also evaluated. Finally, the necessity of obtaining operations cooperation support in field studies and technology evaluation is acknowledged.

  5. Development of Methodologies for Technology Deployment for Advanced Outage Control Centers that Improve Outage Coordination, Problem Resolution and Outage Risk Management

    SciTech Connect

    Shawn St. Germain; Ronald Farris; Heather Medeman

    2013-09-01

    This research effort is a part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, which is a research and development (R&D) program sponsored by Department of Energy (DOE) and performed in close collaboration with industry R&D programs that provides the technical foundations for licensing and managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of current nuclear power plants. The LWRS program serves to help the U.S. nuclear industry adopt new technologies and engineering solutions that facilitate the continued safe operation of the plants and extension of the current operating licenses. The long term viability of existing nuclear power plants in the U.S. will depend upon maintaining high capacity factors, avoiding nuclear safety issues and reducing operating costs. The slow progress in the construction on new nuclear power plants has placed in increased importance on maintaining the output of the current fleet of nuclear power plants. Recently expanded natural gas production has placed increased economic pressure on nuclear power plants due to lower cost competition. Until recently, power uprate projects had steadily increased the total output of the U.S. nuclear fleet. Errors made during power plant upgrade projects have now removed three nuclear power plants from the U.S. fleet and economic considerations have caused the permanent shutdown of a fourth plant. Additionally, several utilities have cancelled power uprate projects citing economic concerns. For the past several years net electrical generation from U.S. nuclear power plants has been declining. One of few remaining areas where significant improvements in plant capacity factors can be made is in minimizing the duration of refueling outages. Managing nuclear power plant outages is a complex and difficult task. Due to the large number of complex tasks and the uncertainty that accompanies them, outage durations routinely exceed the planned duration. The ability to complete an outage on or near

  6. Sample Results from MCU Solids Outage

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, T.; Washington, A.; Oji, L.; Coleman, C.; Poirier, M.

    2014-09-22

    Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has received several solid and liquid samples from MCU in an effort to understand and recover from the system outage starting on April 6, 2014. SRNL concludes that the presence of solids in the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) is the likely root cause for the outage, based upon the following discoveries: A solids sample from the extraction contactor #1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate; A solids sample from the scrub contactor#1 proved to be mostly sodium oxalate; A solids sample from the Salt Solution Feed Tank (SSFT) proved to be mostly sodium oxalate; An archived sample from Tank 49H taken last year was shown to contain a fine precipitate of sodium oxalate; A solids sample from ; A liquid sample from the SSFT was shown to have elevated levels of oxalate anion compared to the expected concentration in the feed. Visual inspection of the SSFT indicated the presence of precipitated or transferred solids, which were likely also in the Salt Solution Receipt Tank (SSRT). The presence of the solids coupled with agitation performed to maintain feed temperature resulted in oxalate solids migration through the MCU system and caused hydraulic issues that resulted in unplanned phase carryover from the extraction into the scrub, and ultimately the strip contactors. Not only did this carryover result in the Strip Effluent (SE) being pushed out of waste acceptance specification, but it resulted in the deposition of solids into several of the contactors. At the same time, extensive deposits of aluminosilicates were found in the drain tube in the extraction contactor #1. However it is not known at this time how the aluminosilicate solids are related to the oxalate solids. The solids were successfully cleaned out of the MCU system. However, future consideration must be given to the exclusion of oxalate solids into the MCU system. There were 53 recommendations for improving operations recently identified. Some additional considerations or

  7. Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 Hopper compilers and DDT short outage next Wed, May 16 May 10, 2012 Due to a scheduled maintenance for the License Servers, most of the compilers (except GNU) and the DDT debugger on Hopper will not be available from 10:30 am to 12:30 pm on Wednesday, May 16. If there are any questions or concerns, please contact "consult at nersc dot gov". Subscribe via RSS Subscribe Browse by Date February 2013 September 2012 August 2012 May 2012 April

  8. Hopper scheduled maintenance tomorrow (Sept 19) and /project outage

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    scheduled maintenance tomorrow (Sept 19) and /project outage Hopper scheduled maintenance tomorrow (Sept 19) and /project outage September 18, 2012 by Helen He There will be a scheduled hardware and software maintenance for Hopper next Wednesday, Sept 19, from 6:30 am to midnight Pacific time. Please plan your work accordingly and check the NERSC Message of the Day (MOTD) for status update: http://www.nersc.gov/live-status/motd/. The /project file system (also known as /global/project) will be

  9. Assessment of Critical Events Corridors through Multivariate Cascading Outages Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Diao, Ruisheng; Kumbale, Murali; Chen, Yousu; Singh, Ruchi; Green, Irina; Morgan, Mark P.

    2011-10-17

    Massive blackouts of electrical power systems in North America over the past decade has focused increasing attention upon ways to identify and simulate network events that may potentially lead to widespread network collapse. This paper summarizes a method to simulate power-system vulnerability to cascading failures to a supplied set of initiating events synonymously termed as Extreme Events. The implemented simulation method is currently confined to simulating steady state power-system response to a set of extreme events. The outlined method of simulation is meant to augment and provide a new insight into bulk power transmission network planning that at present remains mainly confined to maintaining power system security for single and double component outages under a number of projected future network operating conditions. Although one of the aims of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility of simulating network vulnerability to cascading outages, a more important goal has been to determine vulnerable parts of the network that may potentially be strengthened in practice so as to mitigate system susceptibility to cascading failures. This paper proposes to demonstrate a systematic approach to analyze extreme events and identify vulnerable system elements that may be contributing to cascading outages. The hypothesis of critical events corridors is proposed to represent repeating sequential outages that can occur in the system for multiple initiating events. The new concept helps to identify system reinforcements that planners could engineer in order to 'break' the critical events sequences and therefore lessen the likelihood of cascading outages. This hypothesis has been successfully validated with a California power system model.

  10. A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This report reviews power outages and restoration efforts following the June 29, 2012 Derecho and compares them to outages and restoration efforts following other spring and summer storms in the...

  11. Scenario Jedi

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This document summarizes an overview of the Scenario Solar PV Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model work.

  12. Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Methodologies and Challenges

    SciTech Connect

    Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei

    2012-05-31

    Abstract- This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses different approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies. The second paper summarizes the state of the art in modeling tools for risk assessment of cascading outages.

  13. Survey of tools for risk assessment of cascading outages

    SciTech Connect

    Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

    2011-10-01

    Abstract-This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers [1, 2] are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the second of two new papers, which extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. The first paper reviews the state of the art in methodologies for performing risk assessment of potential cascading outages [3]. This paper describes the state of the art in cascading failure modeling tools, documenting the view of experts representing utilities, universities and consulting companies. The paper is intended to constitute a valid source of information and references about presently available tools that deal with prediction of cascading failure events. This effort involves reviewing published literature and other documentation from vendors, universities and research institutions. The assessment of cascading outages risk evaluation is in continuous evolution. Investigations to gain even better understanding and identification of cascading events are the subject of several research programs underway aimed at solving the complexity of these events that electrical utilities face today. Assessing the risk of cascading failure events in planning and operation for power transmission systems require adequate mathematical tools/software.

  14. Design Concepts for an Outage Control Center Information Dashboard

    SciTech Connect

    Hugo, Jacques Victor; St Germain, Shawn Walter; Thompson, Cheradan Jo; Whitesides, McKenzie Jo; Farris, Ronald Keith

    2015-12-01

    The nuclear industry, and the business world in general, is facing a rapidly increasing amount of data to be dealt with on a daily basis. In the last two decades, the steady improvement of data storage devices and means to create and collect data along the way influenced the manner in which we deal with information. Most data is still stored without filtering and refinement for later use. Many functions at a nuclear power plant generate vast amounts of data, with scheduled and unscheduled outages being a prime example of a source of some of the most complex data sets at the plant. To make matters worse, modern information and communications technology is making it possible to collect and store data faster than our ability to use it for making decisions. However, in most applications, especially outages, raw data has no value in itself; instead, managers, engineers and other specialists want to extract the information contained in it. The complexity and sheer volume of data could lead to information overload, resulting in getting lost in data that may be irrelevant to the task at hand, processed in an inappropriate way, or presented in an ineffective way. To prevent information overload, many data sources are ignored so production opportunities are lost because utilities lack the ability to deal with the enormous data volumes properly. Decision-makers are often confronted with large amounts of disparate, conflicting and dynamic information, which are available from multiple heterogeneous sources. Information and communication technologies alone will not solve this problem. Utilities need effective methods to exploit and use the hidden opportunities and knowledge residing in unexplored data resources. Superior performance before, during and after outages depends upon the right information being available at the right time to the right people. Acquisition of raw data is the easy part; instead, it is the ability to use advanced analytical, data processing and data

  15. Hydrogen Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    OnLocation, Inc., Energy Systems Consulting 1 Hydrogen Scenarios Presentation to the Hydrogen Delivery Analysis Meeting by Frances Wood OnLocation, Inc. Energy Systems Consulting May 9, 2007 OnLocation, Inc., Energy Systems Consulting 2 Outline * Brief summary of NEMS-H2 model * Representation of Hydrogen Delivery * Hydrogen Demand Sensitivities * Integration and Energy System Impacts - A Carbon Policy Scenario Example OnLocation, Inc., Energy Systems Consulting 3 NEMS-H2 Overview OnLocation,

  16. Study, outlines why outages go long, short, or on-time

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-09-01

    A recent report by a nuclear industry professional, based on a survey of outage managers at US nuclear power plants, declares that [open quotes]preplanned outage schedules appear to be grossly inaccurate, and the outage management planners and schedulers do not have a grasp of the requirements and/or the resources needed to complete the actual activities on schedule.[close quotes] It declares that [open quotes]the scheduled duration of a planned outage must be realistic.[close quotes] The study identifies personnel, planning and scheduling, and equipment/hardware as [open quotes]the primary reasons why refueling outages and outage activities finished ahead of, right on, or behind schedule.[close quotes

  17. 24. Advanced Outage Control Center_INL_J Hugo_10-13-2016

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control Systems Technologies Advanced Outage Control Center Shawn St. Germain (PI) Jacques Hugo October 13, 2016 1 Project Overview * Develop Advanced OCC concepts to improve management of NPP outages. * Use modern communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution. * Utility Partners - - Arizona Public Service (Palo Verde) - Southern Company - TVA - Duke Energy - Exelon - South Texas Project 2 AOCC Concepts 3

  18. Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages: Part I - Overview of Methodologies

    SciTech Connect

    Vaiman, Marianna; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Chowdhury, Badrul; Dobson, Ian; Hines, Paul; Papic, Milorad; Miller, Stephen; Zhang, Pei

    2011-07-31

    This paper is a result of ongoing activity carried out by Understanding, Prediction, Mitigation and Restoration of Cascading Failures Task Force under IEEE Computer Analytical Methods Subcommittee (CAMS). The task force's previous papers are focused on general aspects of cascading outages such as understanding, prediction, prevention and restoration from cascading failures. This is the first of two new papers, which will extend this previous work to summarize the state of the art in cascading failure risk analysis methodologies and modeling tools. This paper is intended to be a reference document to summarize the state of the art in the methodologies for performing risk assessment of cascading outages caused by some initiating event(s). A risk assessment should cover the entire potential chain of cascades starting with the initiating event(s) and ending with some final condition(s). However, this is a difficult task and heuristic approaches and approximations have been suggested. This paper discusses diffeent approaches to this and suggests directions for future development of methodologies.

  19. Status of U.S. Nuclear Outages - U.S. Energy Information Administration

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    (EIA) < NUCLEAR & URANIUM Data Status of U.S. Nuclear Outages Download Download Link to: Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Power Reactor Status Report

  20. A Study of Outage Management Practices at Selected U.S. Nuclear Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, James C.

    2002-07-01

    This paper presents insights gained from a study of the outage management practices at a number of U.S. nuclear plants. The objective of the study was to conduct an in-depth review of the current practices of outage management at these selected plants and identify important factors that have contributed to the recent success of their outage performance. Two BWR-4, three BWR-6, and two 3-loop Westinghouse PWR plants were selected for this survey. The results of this study can be used to formulate outage improvement efforts for nuclear plants in other countries. (author)

  1. Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages Docket No. EO-05-01. Order No. 202-05-03: Pursuant 10 the United States Department of Energy "DOE") Order No. 102-05-3, issued December 20, 2005 ("DOE Potomac River Order''), Pepco hereby files this Further Notice Of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages serving the Potomac River Substation, and through thaI station, the District of Columbia. Further Notice of 230kV Circuit Planned Outages

  2. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  3. Procedures and equipment for shortening refueling outages in Babcock and Wilcox PWRs. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Baker, H.A.; Carr, C.W.

    1985-04-01

    New refueling equipment and procedures - plus a software package bid specification for outage management - can reduce refueling outages in Babcock and Wilcox PWRs. At Duke Power Company's Oconee nuclear station, a single modification in the fuel-handling system cut 5 days off the refueling schedule.

  4. Use of collaboration software to improve nuclear power plant outage management

    SciTech Connect

    Germain, Shawn

    2015-02-01

    Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) refueling outages create some of the most challenging activities the utilities face in both tracking and coordinating thousands of activities in a short period of time. Other challenges, including nuclear safety concerns arising from atypical system configurations and resource allocation issues, can create delays and schedule overruns, driving up outage costs. Today the majority of the outage communication is done using processes that do not take advantage of advances in modern technologies that enable enhanced communication, collaboration and information sharing. Some of the common practices include: runners that deliver paper-based requests for approval, radios, telephones, desktop computers, daily schedule printouts, and static whiteboards that are used to display information. Many gains have been made to reduce the challenges facing outage coordinators; however; new opportunities can be realized by utilizing modern technological advancements in communication and information tools that can enhance the collective situational awareness of plant personnel leading to improved decision-making. Ongoing research as part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program (LWRS) has been targeting NPP outage improvement. As part of this research, various applications of collaborative software have been demonstrated through pilot project utility partnerships. Collaboration software can be utilized as part of the larger concept of Computer-Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW). Collaborative software can be used for emergent issue resolution, Outage Control Center (OCC) displays, and schedule monitoring. Use of collaboration software enables outage staff and subject matter experts (SMEs) to view and update critical outage information from any location on site or off.

  5. Quantitative evaluation of savings in outage costs by using emergency actions strategy

    SciTech Connect

    Akhtar, A.; Asuhaimi, A.; Shaibon, H. [Univ. Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bharu (Malaysia); Lo, K.L. [Univ. of Strathclyde, Glasgow (United Kingdom)

    1995-12-31

    This paper presents the results of a study carried out to assess the savings in consumer outage costs that can be accrued as a result of implementing Emergency Actions Strategy. The use of Emergency Actions Strategy plays a significant role in curtailing the consumer outage costs ensuing from unreliable electric service. In order to calculate the savings in outage costs, the probabilistic framework of the frequency and duration method has been used in conjunction with emergency actions. At first, the outage costs of various consumer sectors are estimated without considering the emergency actions. Secondly, the consumer outage costs are calculated by combining the frequency and duration method, and unserved energy with the emergency actions invoked. The results of the savings in consumer outage costs that can be accrued by utilizing Emergency Actions Strategy are presented for a synthetic system. The results of the study show that substantial savings in consumer outage costs are obtained by devising and implementing emergency actions strategy in situations of capacity outages. The results are of particular relevance and utility to the underdeveloped and developing countries where capacity shortages occur quite frequently. These results also suggest the importance of emergency actions strategy for electric utilities in reducing the consumer economic losses arising from unreliable electric service.

  6. A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability has released a report that reviews power outages and restoration efforts following the June 29, 2012 Derecho and compares them to outages and restoration efforts following other spring and summer storms in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions.

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Definitions, Construction, and Description Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description ...

  8. Smart Grid Week: Hurricane Season and the Department’s Efforts to Make the Grid More Resilient to Power Outages

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Next up in our Smart Grid Week series -- improving electric grid technologies to adequately prepare for emergencies with power outages.

  9. Notice of Unplanned Outage at the Mirant Potomac River Plant | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Energy Unplanned Outage at the Mirant Potomac River Plant Notice of Unplanned Outage at the Mirant Potomac River Plant Docket No. EO-05-01. Order No. 202-05-03: Pursuant to the United States Department of Energy ("DOE") Order No_ 202-05-3, issued December 20, 2005 ("DOE Potomac River Order"), Pepco hereby files this notice of an unplanned outage of one of the 230kV circuits serving the Potomac River Substation, and through that station, the District of Columbia. Notice

  10. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy The next planned outage on xxxxx high voltage circuit between Palmers Corner Substation and the Potomac River Generating Station is scheduled for Sunday, June 3, 2007 and will begin at 4:00 AM with a scheduled return date of Saturday, June 9, 2007 at 2:00 PM. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station (34.76 KB) More Documents & Publications Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station Notification of Planned

  11. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Docket No. EO-05-01. The next planned outage on xxxxx high voltage circuit between xxxxx and xxxxx is tentatively scheduled for Saturday May 19, 2007 and will begin at 4:00 AM with a scheduled...

  12. Pepco Update on Current Construction Work and Mirant Generation Needs for Pepco's Planned June Line Outage

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Docket No. EO-05-01.  Pepco needs the following to occur to provide necessary reliability to the central D.C. area during this scheduled June outage in order to complete installation of new...

  13. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy, Case No. EO-05-01: Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) evised plan for transmission outages for the 230 kV circuits ...

  14. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating...

    Energy Saver

    Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy Case No. EO-05-01: Advanced Notice of Power Outages. Special Environmental Analysis For Actions Taken under U.S. ...

  15. Hoboken Hopes To Reduce Power Outages With New 'Smart Grid' System

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ... HOBOKEN, N.J. (CBSNewYork) - Officials are hoping to reduce power outages during future storms in Hoboken by designing a "smart grid" system using military-inspired technology. The ...

  16. Assistant Secretary Hoffman Speaks to Senate Committee on DOE's Role in Managing Electrical Outages

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Assistant Secretary Patricia Hoffman appeared before the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on April 26, 2012 to speak about the Department of Energy's role in managing weather related electrical outages.

  17. U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Implementation of Task Force Recommendations | Department of Energy - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force Recommendations U.S. - Canada Power System Outage Task Force: Final Report on the Implementation of Task Force Recommendations On August 14, 2003, the largest power blackout in North American history affected an area with an estimated 50 million people and 61,800 megawatts (MW) of electric load in the states of Ohio, Michigan,

  18. OTRA-THS MAC to reduce Power Outage Data Collection Latency in a smart meter network

    SciTech Connect

    Garlapati, Shravan K; Kuruganti, Phani Teja; Buehrer, Richard M; Reed, Jeffrey H

    2014-01-01

    The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure by the electric utilities poses unique communication challenges, particularly as the number of meters per aggregator increases. During a power outage, a smart meter tries to report it instantaneously to the electric utility. In a densely populated residential/industrial locality, it is possible that a large number of smart meters simultaneously try to get access to the communication network to report the power outage. If the number of smart meters is very high of the order of tens of thousands (metropolitan areas), the power outage data flooding can lead to Random Access CHannel (RACH) congestion. Several utilities are considering the use of cellular network for smart meter communications. In 3G/4G cellular networks, RACH congestion not only leads to collisions, retransmissions and increased RACH delays, but also has the potential to disrupt the dedicated traffic flow by increasing the interference levels (3G CDMA). In order to overcome this problem, in this paper we propose a Time Hierarchical Scheme (THS) that reduces the intensity of power outage data flooding and power outage reporting delay by 6/7th, and 17/18th when compared to their respective values without THS. Also, we propose an Optimum Transmission Rate Adaptive (OTRA) MAC to optimize the latency in power outage data collection. The analysis and simulation results presented in this paper show that both the OTRA and THS features of the proposed MAC results in a Power Outage Data Collection Latency (PODCL) that is 1/10th of the 4G LTE PODCL.

  19. Status Report on the Development of Micro-Scheduling Software for the Advanced Outage Control Center Project

    SciTech Connect

    Shawn St. Germain; Kenneth Thomas; Ronald Farris; Jeffrey Joe

    2014-09-01

    The long-term viability of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States (U.S.) is dependent upon a number of factors, including maintaining high capacity factors, maintaining nuclear safety, and reducing operating costs, particularly those associated with refueling outages. Refueling outages typically take 20-30 days, and for existing light water NPPs in the U.S., the reactor cannot be in operation during the outage. Furthermore, given that many NPPs generate between $1-1.5 million/day in revenue when in operation, there is considerable interest in shortening the length of refueling outages. Yet, refueling outages are highly complex operations, involving multiple concurrent and dependent activities that are difficult to coordinate. Finding ways to improve refueling outage performance while maintaining nuclear safety has proven to be difficult. The Advanced Outage Control Center project is a research and development (R&D) demonstration activity under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. LWRS is a R&D program which works with industry R&D programs to establish technical foundations for the licensing and managing of long-term, safe, and economical operation of current NPPs. The Advanced Outage Control Center project has the goal of improving the management of commercial NPP refueling outages. To accomplish this goal, this INL R&D project is developing an advanced outage control center (OCC) that is specifically designed to maximize the usefulness of communication and collaboration technologies for outage coordination and problem resolution activities. This report describes specific recent efforts to develop a capability called outage Micro-Scheduling. Micro-Scheduling is the ability to allocate and schedule outage support task resources on a sub-hour basis. Micro-Scheduling is the real-time fine-tuning of the outage schedule to react to the actual progress of the primary outage activities to ensure that support task resources are

  20. Evaluation of the marginal outage costs in interconnected and composite power systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ghajar, R.; Billinton, R.

    1995-05-01

    The structure of electric utilities is undergoing dramatic changes as new and expanded service options are added. The concepts of unbundling the electric service and offering customers a range of new services that more closely track actual costs are expanding the options open to customers. Spot pricing provides the economic structure for many of these new service options. An important component of spot prices is the marginal outage cost incurred by customers due to an incremental change in load. This paper presents a formalized approach of calculating the marginal outage cost in interconnected generating systems and composite generation and transmission systems using quantitative reliability techniques. The effects of selected pertinent factors on the marginal outage cost in composite systems are also presented. The proposed methods are illustrated by application to the IEEE-Reliability Test System (IEEE-RTS).

  1. Pepco Update on Current Construction Work and Mirant Generation Needs for Pepco's Planned June Line Outage

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    May 25, 2007 Kevin Kolevar Director of the Office of Electricity Deliverability and Energy Reliability Department of Energy 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585 Dear Mr. Kolevar, DOE has requested that Pepco provide an update on the current work to install two new 230 kilovolt circuits into Potomac River substation and to evaluate the need for generation from the Potomac River plant to support the anticipated line outage during June, 2007. An outage on one of the 230 kV circuits is

  2. Nuclear Safety Risk Management in Refueling Outage of Qinshan Nuclear Power Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Meijing Wu; Guozhang Shen

    2006-07-01

    The NPP is used to planning maintenance, in-service inspection, surveillance test, fuel handling and design modification in the refueling outage; the operator response capability will be reduced plus some of the plant systems out of service or loss of power at this time. Based on 8 times refueling outage experiences of the Qinshan NPP, this article provide some good practice and lesson learned for the nuclear safety risk management focus at four safety function areas of Residual Heat Removal Capability, Inventory Control, Power availability and Reactivity control. (authors)

  3. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    S. 09 BIOMASS FUELS; 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY BIOMASS; BIOFUEL; BSM; SYSTEM DYNAMICS; BIOFUEL INCENTIVES; SCENARIOS; Bioenergy;...

  4. Application of Hybrid Geo-Spatially Granular Fragility Curves to Improve Power Outage Predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Fernandez, Steven J; Allen, Melissa R; Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Walker, Kimberly A

    2014-01-01

    Fragility curves depict the relationship between a weather variable (wind speed, gust speed, ice accumulation, precipitation rate) and the observed outages for a targeted infrastructure network. This paper describes an empirical study of the county by county distribution of power outages and one minute weather variables during Hurricane Irene with the objective of comparing 1) as built fragility curves (statistical approach) to engineering as designed (bottom up) fragility curves for skill in forecasting outages during future hurricanes; 2) county specific fragility curves to find examples of significant deviation from average behavior; and 3) the engineering practices of outlier counties to suggest future engineering studies of robustness. Outages in more than 90% of the impacted counties could be anticipated through an average or generic fragility curve. The remaining counties could be identified and handled as exceptions through geographic data sets. The counties with increased or decreased robustness were characterized by terrain more or less susceptible to persistent flooding in areas where above ground poles located their foundations. Land use characteristics of the area served by the power distribution system can suggest trends in the as built power grid vulnerabilities to extreme weather events that would be subjects for site specific studies.

  5. Power Line Damage, Electrical Outages Reduced in the ''Sleet Belt'': NICE3 Steel Project Fact Sheet

    SciTech Connect

    2000-04-25

    The AR Windamper System was developed through a grant from the Inventions and Innovation Program, to protect power transmission lines in sleet belt states and provinces by eliminating the ''galloping'' phenomenon. Wind damping products minimize power outages and reduce repair costs to transmission lines.

  6. The use of probability techniques in value-based planning

    SciTech Connect

    Rau, N.S. (National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States))

    1994-11-01

    Present techniques used in value-based planning do not properly represent neither the durations of capacity outage nor the effects of outage on post-interruption demand. Generation outage models do not relate the expected quantum of shortages to particular durations of outage. A model is proposed to compute this expectation by using the generator outage statistics in its entirety. The application of this model to the IEEE test system gave different results, depending on which outage cost data were used. Consequently, there is a need for a uniform procedure to report outage costs. A bottom-up procedure based on end use is proposed as a possibility.

  7. Blackout 2003: Energy Secretary Bodman and Minister of Natural Resources for Canada Lunn Release the 2003 Power Outage Final Report, October 3, 2006

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Secretary Bodman and Minister of Natural Resources for Canada Lunn Release the 2003 Power Outage Final Report. In accordance with the mandate of the U.S.-Canada Power Outage Task Force, the...

  8. Method for estimating power outages and restoration during natural and man-made events

    DOEpatents

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Fernandez, Steven J.

    2016-01-05

    A method of modeling electric supply and demand with a data processor in combination with a recordable medium, and for estimating spatial distribution of electric power outages and affected populations. A geographic area is divided into cells to form a matrix. Within the matrix, supply cells are identified as containing electric substations and demand cells are identified as including electricity customers. Demand cells of the matrix are associated with the supply cells as a function of the capacity of each of the supply cells and the proximity and/or electricity demand of each of the demand cells. The method includes estimating a power outage by applying disaster event prediction information to the matrix, and estimating power restoration using the supply and demand cell information of the matrix and standardized and historical restoration information.

  9. Recent Performance of and Plasma Outage Studies with the SNS H- Source

    SciTech Connect

    Stockli, Martin P; Han, Baoxi; Murray Jr, S N; Pennisi, Terry R; Piller, Chip; Santana, Manuel; Welton, Robert F

    2016-01-01

    SNS ramps to higher power levels that can be sustained with high availability. The goal is 1.4 MW despite a compromised RFQ, which requires higher RF power than design levels to approach the nominal beam transmission. Unfortunately at higher power the RFQ often loses its thermal stability, a problem apparently enhanced by beam losses and high influxes of hydrogen. Delivering as much H- beam as possible with the least amount of hydrogen led to plasma outages. The root cause is the dense 1-ms long ~55-kW 2-MHz plasma pulses reflecting ~90% of the continuous ~300W, 13-MHz power, which was mitigated with a 4-ms filter for the reflected power signal and an outage resistant, slightly-detuned 13-MHz match. Lowering the H2 also increased the H- beam current to ~55 mA, and increased the transmission by ~7%.

  10. A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    August 2012 A Review of Power Outages and Restoration Following the June 2012 Derecho Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy For Further Information This report was prepared by the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability under the direction of Patricia Hoffman, Assistant Secretary, and William Bryan, Deputy Assistant Secretary. Specific questions about this report may be directed to Alice

  11. Final Remediation Report for the K-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pit (643-1G)

    SciTech Connect

    Morganstern, M.

    2002-06-18

    The K-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pit (K BPOP) Building Number 643-1G, is situated immediately south and outside the K-Reactor fence line and is approximately 400 feet in length and 60 feet in width. For the K BPOP operable unit, the Land Use Control (LUC) objectives are to prevent contact, removal, or excavation of buried waste in the area and to preclude residential use of the area.

  12. Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Sent: Wednesday, May 16, 2007 4:49 PM To: #DOE_Notification@pepco.com Subject: Notification of Planned 230kV Outage at Potomac River Generating Station To Whom It May Concern: This morning Pepco and PJM observed that the generation at the Potomac River Generating Station was having difficulty matching the station generation requirement to the Potomac River area load. Mirant has also informed Pepco and PJM that several generating units were experiencing equipment problems which required them to

  13. Energy Secretary Bodman and Minister of Natural Resources for Canada Lunn Release the 2003 Power Outage Final Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Samuel W. Bodman and Minister of Natural Resources for Canada Gary Lunn, today released the final report on the power outage that affected 50 million North Americans in August 2003.

  14. Energy Secretary Bodman and Minister of Natural Resources for Canada Lunn Release the 2003 Power Outage Final Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    WASHINGTON, D.C. - U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Samuel W. Bodman and Minister of Natural Resources for Canada Gary Lunn, today released the final report on the power outage that affected 50...

  15. REF Scenario Viewer

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Futures Study Scenario Viewer National Renewable Energy Laboratory Loading Data and Visualizations NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy ...

  16. Brazil's biofuels scenario

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    DO ETANOL Brazil's biofuels scenario: What are the main drivers which will shape investments in the long term? Artur Yabe Milanez Manager BNDES Biofuels Department LIVRO VERDE ...

  17. Biomass Scenario Model

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Biomass Scenario Model 24 March 2015 BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review Brian Bush National Renewable Energy Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 3 Government Policies Analysis Implications Inclusion decisions/scope Marketplace Structure Producer/Consumer exchanges Investment Financial decisions Input Scenarios Feedstock demand Oil prices Learning curves Evolution of Supply Chain for Biofuels Goals and Objectives *

  18. Methodology to predict the number of forced outages due to creep failure

    SciTech Connect

    Palermo, J.V. Jr.

    1996-12-31

    All alloy metals at a temperature above 950 degrees Fahrenheit experience creep damage. Creep failures in boiler tubes usually begin after 25 to 40 years of operation. Since creep damage is irreversible, the only remedy is to replace the tube sections. By predicting the number of failures per year, the utility can make the best economic decision concerning tube replacement. This paper describes a methodology to calculate the number of forced outages per yea due to creep failures. This methodology is particularly useful to utilities that have boilers that have at least 25 years of operation.

  19. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  20. Scenario Analysis Meeting

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Analysis Meeting Dr. Sigmund Gronich Transition Strategy Manager January 31, 2007 Purposes of Studies * Assess the costs associated with different scenarios to achieve the market transformation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles * No recommendations will be made as to which scenario is to be adopted * The report will be provided to the National Academy of Sciences and the Hydrogen Technical Advisory Committee in March, 2007 for their utilization Natural Gas Distributed Reforming R&D * H2Gen

  1. Analytical Tools to Predict Distribution Outage Restoration Load. Final Project Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Law, John

    1994-11-14

    The main activity of this project has been twofold: (1) development of a computer model to predict CLPU(Cold Load Pickup) and (2) development of a field measurement and analysis method to obtain the input parameters of the CLPU model. The field measurement and analysis method is called the Step-Voltage-Test (STEPV). The Kootenai Electric Cooperative Appleway 51 feeder in Coeur d`Alene was selected for analysis in this project and STEPV tests were performed in winters of 92 and 93. The STEPV data was analyzed (method and results presented within this report) to obtain the Appleway 51 feeder parameters for prediction by the CLPU model. One only CLPU record was obtained in winter 1994. Unfortunately, the actual CLPU was not dramatic (short outage and moderate temperature) and did not display cyclic restoration current. A predicted Appleway 51 feeder CLPU was generated using the parameters obtained via the STEPV measurement/analysis/algorithm method at the same ambient temperature and outage duration as the measured actual CLPU. The predicted CLPU corresponds reasonably well with the single actual CLPU data obtained in winter 1994 on the Appleway 51 feeder.

  2. Reducing Duration of Refueling Outage by Optimizing Core Design and Shuffling Sequence

    SciTech Connect

    Wakker, P.H.; Verhagen, F.C.M.; Bloois, J.T. van; Sutton, W.R. III

    2005-07-15

    Reducing the duration of refueling outage is possible by optimizing the core design and the shuffling sequence. For both options software tools have been developed that have been applied to the three most recent cycles of the Borssele plant in the Netherlands. Applicability of the shuffling sequence optimization to boiling water reactors has been demonstrated by a comparison to a recent shuffle plan used in the Hatch plant located in the United States. Their uses have shown that both core design and shuffling sequence optimization can be exploited to reduce the time needed for reloading a core with an in-core shuffling scheme. Ex-core shuffling schemes for pressurized water reactors can still have substantial benefit from a core design using a minimized number of insert shuffles.

  3. Analysis of 12 electric power system outages/disturbances impacting the Florida Peninsula

    SciTech Connect

    1980-12-01

    Between January 3 and August 3, 1979, there were 12 occasions on which electric power was curtailed or public appeals were made to customers to reduce their load in Peninsular Florida due to bulk electric power supply problems. The Economic Regulatory Administration (ERA) of the US DOE, pursuant to its electric power supply adequacy and reliability responsibilities, initiated a twofold analysis of the bulk power supply situation in Florida. The first phase of the analysis evaluated the technical and engineering aspects of the overall Florida bulk power supply system with special attention given to the City of Jacksonville's electric system. The second phase evaluated the socioeconomic impacts of the bulk power supply outages on residential customers in Jacksonville. The 12 disturbances are described and a comparative analysis of the causes is presented. (LCL)

  4. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  5. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  6. Understanding the Benefits of Dispersed Grid-Connected Photovoltaics: From Avoiding the Next Major Outage to Taming Wholesale Power Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Letendre, Steven E.; Perez, Richard

    2006-07-15

    Thanks to new solar resource assessment techniques using cloud cover data available from geostationary satellites, it is apparent that grid-connected PV installations can serve to enhance electric grid reliability, preventing or hastening recovery from major power outages and serving to mitigate extreme price spikes in wholesale energy markets. (author)

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Description (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to

  8. Olkiluoto 1 and 2 - Plant efficiency improvement and lifetime extension-project (PELE) implemented during outages 2010 and 2011

    SciTech Connect

    Kosonen, M.; Hakola, M.

    2012-07-01

    Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) is a non-listed public company founded in 1969 to produce electricity for its stakeholders. TVO is the operator of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant. TVO follows the principle of continuous improvement in the operation and maintenance of the Olkiluoto plant units. The PELE project (Plant Efficiency Improvement and Lifetime Extension), mainly completed during the annual outages in 2010 and 2011, and forms one part of the systematic development of Olkiluoto units. TVO maintains a long-term development program that aims at systematically modernizing the plant unit systems and equipment based on the latest technology. According to the program, the Olkiluoto 1 and Olkiluoto 2 plant units are constantly renovated with the intention of keeping them safe and reliable, The aim of the modernization projects is to improve the safety, reliability, and performance of the plant units. PELE project at Olkiluoto 1 was done in 2010 and at Olkiluoto 2 in 2011. The outage length of Olkiluoto 1 was 26 d 12 h 4 min and Olkiluoto 2 outage length was 28 d 23 h 46 min. (Normal service-outage is about 14 days including refueling and refueling-outage length is about seven days. See figure 1) The PELE project consisted of several single projects collected into one for coordinated project management. Some of the main projects were as follows: - Low pressure turbines: rotor, stator vane, casing and turbine instrumentation replacement. - Replacement of Condenser Cooling Water (later called seawater pumps) pumps - Replacement of inner isolation valves on the main steam lines. - Generator and the generator cooling system replacement. - Low voltage switchgear replacement. This project will continue during future outages. PELE was a success. 100 TVO employees and 1500 subcontractor employees participated in the project. The execution of the PELE projects went extremely well during the outages. The replacement of the low pressure turbines and seawater pumps improved the

  9. Description of GPRA08 scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Background information for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review providing a description of GPRA08 scenarios.

  10. Standard Scenarios Annual Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.

  11. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect

    Mankamo, T.; Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K.

    1992-12-31

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  12. Risk-based evaluation of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) considering risk of shutdown

    SciTech Connect

    Mankamo, T. ); Kim, I.S.; Samanta, P.K. )

    1992-01-01

    When safety systems fail during power operation, Technical Specifications (TS) usually limit the repair within Allowed Outage Time (AOT). If the repair cannot be completed within the AOT, or no AOT is allowed, the plant is required to be shut down for the repair. However, if the capability to remove decay heat is degraded, shutting down the plant with the need to operate the affected decay-heat removal systems may impose a substantial risk compared to continued power operation over a usual repair time. Thus, defining a proper AOT in such situations can be considered as a risk-comparison between the repair in frill power state with a temporarily increased level of risk, and the altemative of shutting down the plant for the repair in zero power state with a specific associated risk. The methodology of the risk-comparison approach, with a due consideration of the shutdown risk, has been further developed and applied to the AOT considerations of residual heat removal and standby service water systems of a boiling water reactor (BWR) plant. Based on the completed work, several improvements to the TS requirements for the systems studied can be suggested.

  13. Plant Outage Time Savings Provided by Subcritical Physics Testing at Vogtle Unit 2

    SciTech Connect

    Cupp, Philip [Southern Nuclear Company (United States); Heibel, M.D. [Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The most recent core reload design verification physics testing done at Southern Nuclear Company's (SNC) Vogtle Unit 2, performed prior to initial power operations in operating cycle 12, was successfully completed while the reactor was at least 1% {delta}K/K subcritical. The testing program used was the first application of the Subcritical Physics Testing (SPT) program developed by the Westinghouse Electric Company LLC. The SPT program centers on the application of the Westinghouse Subcritical Rod Worth Measurement (SRWM) methodology that was developed in cooperation with the Vogtle Reactor Engineering staff. The SRWM methodology received U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval in August of 2005. The first application of the SPT program occurred at Vogtle Unit 2 in October of 2005. The results of the core design verification measurements obtained during the SPT program demonstrated excellent agreement with prediction, demonstrating that the predicted core characteristics were in excellent agreement with the actual operating characteristics of the core. This paper presents an overview of the SPT Program used at Vogtle Unit 2 during operating cycle 12, and a discussion of the critical path outage time savings the SPT program is capable of providing. (authors)

  14. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  15. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  16. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool | Department...

    Energy Saver

    Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool helps communities analyze different pathways to ...

  17. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Authors Preface This report is one of several products ... and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL's market models ... energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. ...

  18. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  19. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  20. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  1. Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Paidipati, J.; Frantzis, L.; Sawyer, H.; Kurrasch, A.

    2008-02-01

    The goal of this study was to model the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.

  2. Hydrogen Scenarios | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Scenarios Hydrogen Scenarios Presentation by Frances Wood of OnLocation Inc. at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007 deliv_analysis_wood.pdf (190.7 KB) More Documents & Publications DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop Analysis Models and Tools: Systems Analysis of Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007, Discussion Session Highlights, Comments, and Action Items

  3. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  4. Improvements in release probability by using an overpack. [Obsolete munitions

    SciTech Connect

    Rhyne, W.R.; Ashwood, T.L.; Shappert, L.B.

    1986-01-01

    An analysis was performed to determine the probability of an unconfined release of hazardous material as a consequence of being involved in a severe transportation accident. Two packaging scenarios were considered: (1) material was palletized and placed in a standard aluminum sided trailer, and (2) the same material was placed in an overpackage. In addition to truck, both rail and air transport were also considered. Several release categories were defined ranging from minor to very large, and the effectiveness of the overpackage to reduce the probability of unconfined release was evaluated for each type of release category. The results are applicable to the transport of radioactive materials in similar overpackages. The potential accident scenarios for a pallet of obsolete munitions were identified using a fault-free methodology.

  5. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  6. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  7. Interference of probabilities in dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Zak, Michail

    2014-08-15

    A new class of dynamical systems with a preset type of interference of probabilities is introduced. It is obtained from the extension of the Madelung equation by replacing the quantum potential with a specially selected feedback from the Liouville equation. It has been proved that these systems are different from both Newtonian and quantum systems, but they can be useful for modeling spontaneous collective novelty phenomena when emerging outputs are qualitatively different from the weighted sum of individual inputs. Formation of language and fast decision-making process as potential applications of the probability interference is discussed.

  8. Scenario Analysis Meeting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Scenario Analysis Meeting Scenario Analysis Meeting Presentation by Sigmund Gronich at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007. scenario_analysis_gronich1_07.pdf (655.92 KB) More Documents & Publications HyPro: Modeling the Hydrogen Transition Analysis of the Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and the Potential Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure Requirements Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025

  9. ETI Energy Scenario Tool User Guide About the ETI Energy Scenario Tool

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ETI Energy Scenario Tool User Guide About the ETI Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool is an Excel-based scenario model that calculates the cost of electricity for custom generation profiles. This tool is intended to model scenarios in Hawaii and other islands. Data Entry Screens Scenario Details The Scenario Details screen serves as the main menu for the Scenario Tool and the starting point for using the tool. On this screen, users can create a new scenario, copy and modify an

  10. Lectures on probability and statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  11. The impact of fuel cladding failure events on occupational radiation exposures at nuclear power plants: Case study, PWR (pressurized-water reactor) during an outage

    SciTech Connect

    Moeller, M.P.; Martin, G.F.; Kenoyer, J.L.

    1987-08-01

    This report is the second in a series of case studies designed to evaluate the magnitude of increase in occupational radiation exposures at commercial US nuclear power plants resulting from small incidents or abnormal events. The event evaluated is fuel cladding failure, which can result in elevated primary coolant activity and increased radiation exposure rates within a plant. For this case study, radiation measurements were made at a pressurized-water reactor (PWR) during a maintenance and refueling outage. The PWR had been operating for 22 months with fuel cladding failure characterized as 105 pin-hole leakers, the equivalent of 0.21% failed fuel. Gamma spectroscopy measurements, radiation exposure rate determinations, thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) assessments, and air sample analyses were made in the plant's radwaste, pipe penetration, and containment buildings. Based on the data collected, evaluations indicate that the relative contributions of activation products and fission products to the total exposure rates were constant over the duration of the outage. This constancy is due to the significant contribution from the longer-lived isotopes of cesium (a fission product) and cobalt (an activation product). For this reason, fuel cladding failure events remain as significant to occupational radiation exposure during an outage as during routine operations. As documented in the previous case study (NUREG/CR-4485 Vol. 1), fuel cladding failure events increased radiation exposure rates an estimated 540% at some locations of the plant during routine operations. Consequently, such events can result in significantly greater radiation exposure rates in many areas of the plant during the maintenance and refueling outages than would have been present under normal fuel conditions.

  12. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  13. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    SciTech Connect

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  14. Geographic Resource Map of Frozen Pipe Probabilities

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation slide details a resource map showing the probability of frozen pipes in the geographic United States.

  15. Refinery Outages: Fall 2014

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    gasoline supply in a particular region because pipeline infrastructure, geography and marine shipping regulations constrain the amount of product that can flow among the different...

  16. Refinery Outages: Fall 2014

    Annual Energy Outlook

    some Libyan crude oil production to the market, and increasing U.S. crude production. Economic growth in 2014 outside of the United States has been slow, and some recent data...

  17. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  18. Transport Test Problems for Radiation Detection Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Miller, Erin A.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Benjamin S.

    2012-09-30

    This is the final report and deliverable for the project. It is a list of the details of the test cases for radiation detection scenarios.

  19. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Transcript

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This video demonstrates the Island Energy Scenario Tool developed for the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's Technology-to-Market program.

  20. Scenario Evaluation, Regionalization & Analysis (SERA) | Open...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    analysis model that determines the optimal production and delivery scenarios for hydrogen, given resource availability and technology cost. Given annual H2 demands on a...

  1. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  2. Sustainable Transport Illustrative Scenarios Tool | Open Energy...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Scenarios Tool has been developed as a high-level calculator (not an in-depth model) to help provide indicative estimates of the possible impacts of policy on transport...

  3. NREL: Energy Analysis - BSM: Biomass Scenario Model

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    BSM - Biomass Scenario Model Energy Analysis The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art, dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain. BSM explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. BSM uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain. The model

  4. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incineration facility (East Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 7. Accident analysis; selection and assessment of potential release scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    1997-05-01

    In this part of the assessment, several accident scenarios are identified that could result in significant releases of chemicals into the environment. These scenarios include ruptures of storage tanks, large magnitude on-site spills, mixing of incompatible wastes, and off-site releases caused by tranpsortation accidents. In evaluating these scenarios, both probability and consequence are assessed, so that likelihood of occurrence is coupled with magnitude of effect in characterizing short term risks.

  5. Probability-theoretic characteristics of solar batteries

    SciTech Connect

    Lidorenko, N.S.; Asharin, L.N.; Borisova, N.A.; Evdokimov, V.M.; Ryabikov, S.V.

    1980-01-01

    Results are reported for an investigation into the characteristics of solar batteries on the basis of probability theory with the photocells treated as current generators; methods for reducing solar-battery circuit losses are considered.

  6. Microsoft Word - Price Probabilities Supplement.doc

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Figure 1B. Probability of WTI spot price falling below certain levels Values not calculated for months with little trading in "close-to-the-money" options contracts. Notes: ...

  7. Probability distribution of the vacuum energy density

    SciTech Connect

    Duplancic, Goran; Stefancic, Hrvoje; Glavan, Drazen

    2010-12-15

    As the vacuum state of a quantum field is not an eigenstate of the Hamiltonian density, the vacuum energy density can be represented as a random variable. We present an analytical calculation of the probability distribution of the vacuum energy density for real and complex massless scalar fields in Minkowski space. The obtained probability distributions are broad and the vacuum expectation value of the Hamiltonian density is not fully representative of the vacuum energy density.

  8. The Future of Scenarios: Issues in Developing New Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-06-01

    Research, analysis and commnetary since the release of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios has suggested a number of areas, e.g. rates of economic growth, downscaling and scenario likelihood, where additional research would make the next set of scenarios of greater use and increased credibility. This essary reviews the work on the areas mentioned above and makes suggestions about possible ways to improve the next set of climate scenarios, to be developed by the research community without a specific IPCC terms of reference to guide the work.

  9. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration ... Porro National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical ... contingency, frequency regulation, and VRRE forecast error ...

  10. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  11. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  12. Proposed Plan for the R-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pits (643-8G, -9G, -10G) and R-Area Unknown Pits No.1, No.2, No.3 (RUNK-1, -2, -3)

    SciTech Connect

    Mundy, S.

    2002-07-31

    The purpose of this proposed plan is to describe the preferred remedial alternative for the R-Area Bingham Pump Outage Pits (R BPOPs) and the R-Area Unknowns (RUNKs) operable unit (OU) and to provide for public involvement in the decision-making process.

  13. Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025 Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025 Presentation by DOE's Sig Gronich at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C. gronich_h2_fcv_implement.pdf (670.06 KB) More Documents & Publications 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies Scenario Analysis Meeting 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 -

  14. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis and Transition Strategies Presentation by Sig Gronich at the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C. gronich_scenario_analysis.pdf (208.71 KB) More Documents & Publications Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025 Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

  15. Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool Energy Transition Initiative Energy Scenario Tool The ETI Energy Scenario Tool helps communities analyze different pathways to meet a given energy transition goal by modeling the levelized cost of electricity for custom, user-defined scenarios of supply and demand. Download the tool and user guide below. For step-by-step instructions on how to use the tool, watch the video. ETI Energy Scenario Tool (4.95 MB) ETI Energy Scenario Tool User Guide

  16. Reassessment of the BWR scram failure probability

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, E.T.

    1989-01-01

    As part of the Severe Accident Policy Statement implementation, the probabilistic quantification of accident sequence frequencies that may lead to core damage is a key element in demonstrating a plant's safety status relative to US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff goals. One of the key quantitative inputs in a boiling water reactor (BWR) probabilistic risk assessment is the probability of a failure to scram. The assessment of this failure probability has been the subject of a long and continuing debate over the adequacy of available data and analytic modeling. This report provides a summary of the status of this debate, including the latest data, and provides a revision to the characterization of the failure probability originally published in NUREG 0460 and the Utility Group on Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) Petition.

  17. Global Fits of the Minimal Universal Extra Dimensions Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Kong, Kyoungchul; de Austri, Roberto Ruiz; Trotta, Roberto; /Imperial Coll., London

    2012-06-22

    In theories with Universal Extra-Dimensions (UED), the {gamma}{sub 1} particle, first excited state of the hypercharge gauge boson, provides an excellent Dark Matter (DM) candidate. Here we use a modified version of the SuperBayeS code to perform a Bayesian analysis of the minimal UED scenario, in order to assess its detectability at accelerators and with DM experiments. We derive in particular the most probable range of mass and scattering cross sections off nucleons, keeping into account cosmological and electroweak precision constraints. The consequences for the detectability of the {gamma}{sub 1} with direct and indirect experiments are dramatic. The spin-independent cross section probability distribution peaks at {approx} 10{sup -11} pb, i.e. below the sensitivity of ton-scale experiments. The spin-dependent cross-section drives the predicted neutrino flux from the center of the Sun below the reach of present and upcoming experiments. The only strategy that remains open appears to be direct detection with ton-scale experiments sensitive to spin-dependent cross-sections. On the other hand, the LHC with 1 fb{sup -1} of data should be able to probe the current best-fit UED parameters.

  18. Hydrogen and FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    FCV Implementation Scenarios, 2010 - 2025 Sig Gronich Technology Validation Manager Manager- Transition Strategies DOE Hydrogen Program 2010-2025 Scenario Analyses 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 R&D to Meet Targets Lighthouse Valid. Policy Actions Technology Readiness based on lab results and high-pressure storage 2,000 hours FC durability 250 mile range $3/gge H 2 at pump Production vehicles 5,000 hours FC durability 300+ mile range $2.50/gge at pump Cost of storage and FC TBD Cold Start 3,500

  19. Non-Gaussian Photon Probability Distribution

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, Benjamin T.

    2010-01-28

    This paper investigates the axiom that the photon's probability distribution is a Gaussian distribution. The Airy disc empirical evidence shows that the best fit, if not exact, distribution is a modified Gamma mGAMMA distribution (whose parameters are alpha = r, betar/sq root(u)) in the plane orthogonal to the motion of the photon. This modified Gamma distribution is then used to reconstruct the probability distributions along the hypotenuse from the pinhole, arc from the pinhole, and a line parallel to photon motion. This reconstruction shows that the photon's probability distribution is not a Gaussian function. However, under certain conditions, the distribution can appear to be Normal, thereby accounting for the success of quantum mechanics. This modified Gamma distribution changes with the shape of objects around it and thus explains how the observer alters the observation. This property therefore places additional constraints to quantum entanglement experiments. This paper shows that photon interaction is a multi-phenomena effect consisting of the probability to interact P{sub i}, the probabilistic function and the ability to interact A{sub i}, the electromagnetic function. Splitting the probability function P{sub i} from the electromagnetic function A{sub i} enables the investigation of the photon behavior from a purely probabilistic P{sub i} perspective. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis is proposed as a consistent method for handling the two different phenomena, the probability function P{sub i} and the ability to interact A{sub i}, thus redefining radiation shielding, stealth or cloaking, and invisibility as different effects of a single phenomenon P{sub i} of the photon probability distribution. Sub wavelength photon behavior is successfully modeled as a multi-phenomena behavior. The Probabilistic Interaction Hypothesis provides a good fit to Otoshi's (1972) microwave shielding, Schurig et al.(2006) microwave cloaking, and Oulton et al.(2008) sub

  20. Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium

    SciTech Connect

    elik, Gltekin; Gke, Yasin; Y?ld?z, Murat

    2014-05-15

    Electric quadrupole transition probabilities for atomic lithium have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model theory (WBEPMT). We have employed numerical non-relativistic HartreeFock wavefunctions for expectation values of radii and the necessary energy values have been taken from the compilation at NIST. The results obtained with the present method agree very well with the Coulomb approximation results given by Caves (1975). Moreover, electric quadrupole transition probability values not existing in the literature for some highly excited levels have been obtained using the WBEPMT.

  1. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 This agenda provides information about the 2010 ...

  2. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results This presentation by ...

  3. Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) (Redirected from CIFF-Chile-Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)) Jump to: navigation, search Retrieved from "http:...

  4. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak ...

  5. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment ...

  6. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Journal Article: Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios Citation Details In-Document Search Title: ... with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) ...

  7. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  8. Optimum phase space probabilities from quantum tomography

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, Arunabha S.; Roy, S. M.

    2014-01-15

    We determine a positive normalised phase space probability distribution P with minimum mean square fractional deviation from the Wigner distribution W. The minimum deviation, an invariant under phase space rotations, is a quantitative measure of the quantumness of the state. The positive distribution closest to W will be useful in quantum mechanics and in time frequency analysis. The position-momentum correlations given by the distribution can be tested experimentally in quantum optics.

  9. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  10. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  11. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  12. Wood Energy Scenarios and Southern Markets

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    WOOD ENERGY SCENARIOS AND SOUTHERN MARKETS PRAKASH NEPAL 1 , KAREN ABT 2 , KEN SKOG 3 , ROBERT ABT 1 1 DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY & ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES, NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY 2 USDA FOREST SERVICE, SOUTHERN RESEARCH STATION, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK 3 USDA FOREST SERVICE, FOREST PRODUCTS LABORATORY, MADISON, WI (RETIRED) Photo: Juergen Henkelmann, Alamy Photo: conserve-energy-future.com Photo: Duke University BACKGROUND  Previous billion ton reports did not explicitly consider

  13. Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) (Argonne National Laboratory) Objectives Provide platform for comparing the cost of alternative hydrogen delivery and refueling options. Identify cost drivers of current hydrogen delivery and refueling technologies for various market penetrations of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Key Attributes & Strengths The tool is highly flexible, allowing end users the ability to change many detailed input assumptions and to perform sensitivity analyses. HDSAM

  14. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  15. Probability Density Function Method for Langevin Equations with...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Probability Density Function Method for Langevin Equations with Colored Noise Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Probability Density Function Method for Langevin Equations ...

  16. Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

    SciTech Connect

    Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

    1993-12-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily through the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence.

  17. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  18. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, S.S.

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  19. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  1. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2 Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2 ...

  2. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  3. Geographically Based Hydrogen Demand and Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Rollout Scenario Analysis January 31, 2007 Margo Melendez 2 Objective/Overview Lay out several scenarios for infrastructure deployment in the 2012-2025 timeframe 2012-2015: Initial introduction 2016-2019: Targeted regional growth 2020-2025: Inter-regional expansion 3 Approach * Identify infrastructure to support deployment scenarios in the 2015-2025 timeframe - Based upon HyTrans estimates for station needs in a given time period (Scenarios 2 & 3) - Emphasis on urban deployment to best match

  4. H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses Marianne Mintz and Jerry Gillette DOE Hydrogen Delivery Analysis and High Pressure Tanks R&D Project Review Meeting February 8, 2005 2 Pioneering Science and Technology Office of Science U.S. Department of Energy Topics * Delivery Scenarios - Current status - Future scenarios * Delivery Scenarios model - Approach - Structure - Current status - Results * Pipeline modeling - Approach - Key assumptions - Results * Next Steps 3 Pioneering Science and

  5. Probability-Based Software for Grid Optimization: Improved Power System Operations Using Advanced Stochastic Optimization

    SciTech Connect

    2012-02-24

    GENI Project: Sandia National Laboratories is working with several commercial and university partners to develop software for market management systems (MMSs) that enable greater use of renewable energy sources throughout the grid. MMSs are used to securely and optimally determine which energy resources should be used to service energy demand across the country. Contributions of electricity to the grid from renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are intermittent, introducing complications for MMSs, which have trouble accommodating the multiple sources of price and supply uncertainties associated with bringing these new types of energy into the grid. Sandia’s software will bring a new, probability-based formulation to account for these uncertainties. By factoring in various probability scenarios for electricity production from renewable energy sources in real time, Sandia’s formula can reduce the risk of inefficient electricity transmission, save ratepayers money, conserve power, and support the future use of renewable energy.

  6. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  7. HIPPS concepts for a subsea field scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Lund, B.F.; Onshus, T.; Aaroe, R.

    1995-12-31

    This paper is based on a feasibility study investigating the possibilities of using a HIPPS (High Integrity Pressure Protection System) to protect a subsea pipeline which is not rated for full wellhead shut-in pressure. Several different HIPPS configurations have been evaluated with respect to safety, production regularity and various qualitative criteria for use in a specific subsea field scenario containing six wells. A preliminary review of the feasibility of current technology for HIPPS applications has been made. The conclusion is that a subsea HIPPS can be designed with satisfactory safety performance based on current technology. The paper also covers requirements posed to the HIPPS equipment as well as general requirements for process design and operation when a pipeline not rated for full well shut-in pressure is present.

  8. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  9. Lectures on probability and statistics. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1985-06-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. They begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probabilty of any specified outcome. They finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another. Hopefully, the reader will come away from these notes with a feel for some of the problems and uncertainties involved. Although there are standard approaches, most of the time there is no cut and dried ''best'' solution - ''best'' according to every criterion.

  10. Parametric probability distributions for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Foy, Bernard R; Wohlberg, Brendt E; Scovel, James C

    2010-01-01

    The problem of anomalous change detection arises when two (or possibly more) images are taken of the same scene, but at different times. The aim is to discount the 'pervasive differences' that occur thoughout the imagery, due to the inevitably different conditions under which the images were taken (caused, for instance, by differences in illumination, atmospheric conditions, sensor calibration, or misregistration), and to focus instead on the 'anomalous changes' that actually take place in the scene. In general, anomalous change detection algorithms attempt to model these normal or pervasive differences, based on data taken directly from the imagery, and then identify as anomalous those pixels for which the model does not hold. For many algorithms, these models are expressed in terms of probability distributions, and there is a class of such algorithms that assume the distributions are Gaussian. By considering a broader class of distributions, however, a new class of anomalous change detection algorithms can be developed. We consider several parametric families of such distributions, derive the associated change detection algorithms, and compare the performance with standard algorithms that are based on Gaussian distributions. We find that it is often possible to significantly outperform these standard algorithms, even using relatively simple non-Gaussian models.

  11. Refinery Outages: First Half 2015

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    to increase by 820,000 bbld in 2015. While global oil supply growth has been strong, economic growth outside of the United States has been slow, particularly in Russia and...

  12. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow

  13. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; ,

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  14. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage

    SciTech Connect

    Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

    1994-08-01

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}7}/year.

  15. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Results | Department of Energy Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results This presentation by Amgad Elgowainy of Argonne National Laboratory was given at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007. deliv_analysis_elgowainy.pdf (449.02 KB) More Documents & Publications Hydrogen Delivery Analysis Models H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses

  16. Scenario-Driven Training | Y-12 National Security Complex

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Scenario-Driven Training Scenario-Driven Training An initial entry team member assesses the overall hazards in a clandestine lab. Y-12's Nuclear and Radiological Field Training Center equips military units, as well as federal, state and local emergency response agencies with the hands-on skills and knowledge they need to safely detect, safeguard and handle real nuclear and radiological sources. To test their skills, Y-12 has developed training exercises that include the following scenarios:

  17. Wood Energy Scenarios and Southern Markets | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wood Energy Scenarios and Southern Markets Wood Energy Scenarios and Southern Markets Breakout Session 1A: Assessing America's Biomass Potential (2016 Billion-Ton Report) Wood Energy Scenarios and Southern Markets Prakash Nepal, Research Assistant Professor, U.S. Department of Agriculture and North Carolina State University nepal_bioenergy_2016.pdf (1.96 MB) More Documents & Publications Bioenergy Demand in a Market Driven Forest Economy (U.S. South) U.S. Billion-Ton Update: Biomass Supply

  18. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References (Technical

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Report) | SciTech Connect Technical Report: Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for

  19. Advanced ST Plasma Scenario Simulations for NSTX

    SciTech Connect

    C.E. Kessel; E.J. Synakowski; D.A. Gates; R.W. Harvey; S.M. Kaye; T.K. Mau; J. Menard; C.K. Phillips; G. Taylor; R. Wilson; the NSTX Research Team

    2004-10-28

    Integrated scenario simulations are done for NSTX [National Spherical Torus Experiment] that address four primary milestones for developing advanced ST configurations: high {beta} and high {beta}{sub N} inductive discharges to study all aspects of ST physics in the high-beta regime; non-inductively sustained discharges for flattop times greater than the skin time to study the various current-drive techniques; non-inductively sustained discharges at high {beta} for flattop times much greater than a skin time which provides the integrated advanced ST target for NSTX; and non-solenoidal start-up and plasma current ramp-up. The simulations done here use the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC) and are based on a discharge 109070. TRANSP analysis of the discharge provided the thermal diffusivities for electrons and ions, the neutral-beam (NB) deposition profile, and other characteristics. CURRAY is used to calculate the High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating depositions and current drive. GENRAY/CQL3D is used to establish the heating and CD [current drive] deposition profiles for electron Bernstein waves (EBW). Analysis of the ideal-MHD stability is done with JSOLVER, BALMSC, and PEST2. The simulations indicate that the integrated advanced ST plasma is reachable, obtaining stable plasmas with {beta} {approx} 40% at {beta}{sub N}'s of 7.7-9, I{sub P} = 1.0 MA, and B{sub T} = 0.35 T. The plasma is 100% non-inductive and has a flattop of 4 skin times. The resulting global energy confinement corresponds to a multiplier of H{sub 98(y,2)} = 1.5. The simulations have demonstrated the importance of HHFW heating and CD, EBW off-axis CD, strong plasma shaping, density control, and early heating/H-mode transition for producing and optimizing these plasma configurations.

  20. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  1. Ethiopia-National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios: Learning from Experiences in Developing Countries Jump to: navigation, search Name Ethiopia-National Greenhouse Gas Emissions...

  2. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of ...

  3. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References Lin...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Documentation: Data and References Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D. 09 BIOMASS FUELS BIOMASS SCENARIO MODEL; BSM; BIOMASS; BIOFUEL; MODEL; DATA; REFERENCES;...

  4. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Clarke, Leon E.; Wise, Marshall A.; Placet, Marylynn; Izaurralde, R Cesar; Lurz, Joshua P.; Kim, Son H.; Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.

    2006-09-18

    This report documents a scenario analysis that explores three advanced technology pathways toward climate stabilization using the MiniCAM model.

  5. Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Development of Sea Level Rise...

  6. Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Formulating Climate Change Scenarios to Inform Climate - Resilient Development Strategies Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Formulating Climate Change...

  7. Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Illustrative Scenarios Tool (European Union) Focus Area: Propane Topics: Opportunity Assessment & Screening Website: www.eutransportghg2050.eucms...

  8. Develop low emissions growth scenarios | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    low emissions growth scenarios Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities...

  9. Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Stage 3a: Developing BAU Scenario Jump to: navigation, search Stage 3 LEDS Home Introduction to Framework Assess current country plans, policies, practices, and capacities...

  10. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Welch, National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1:00 pm Convene in parallel breakout groups to discuss and provide feedback on the following key issues: 1) Penetration scenarios - ...

  11. Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    in Bioenergy Brazil's Biofuels Scenario: What are the Main Drivers Which will Shape Investments in the Long Term? Artur Milanez, Manager of Biofuels Department, Brazilian ...

  12. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introduction...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering ICEPAG Conference University of California, ...

  13. Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    TOOL Name: Greenhouse Gas Initiative Scenario Database AgencyCompany Organization: Science for Global Insight Sector: Climate, Energy, Land Topics: Baseline projection, GHG...

  14. Geographically Based Hydrogen Demand and Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  15. Geographically-Based Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Melendez, M.

    2007-05-17

    This presentation by Margo Melendez at the 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review Meeting provides information about NREL's Hydrogen Demand & Infrastructure Rollout Scenario Analysis.

  16. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  17. A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Buildings | Department of Energy Authors: Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings (119.29 KB) More Documents & Publications Natural Phenomena Hazards (NPH) Workshop A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Modeling the Number of Ignitions Following an Earthquake: Developing Prediction Limits for Overdispersed Count Data

  18. Transition probability from matter-wave soliton to chaos

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu Qianquan; Hai Wenhua; Rong Shiguang

    2009-07-15

    For a Bose-Einstein condensate loaded into a weak traveling optical superlattice, it is demonstrated that under a stochastic initial set and in a given parameter region, the solitonic chaos appears with a certain probability. Effects of the lattice depths and wave vectors on the chaos probability are investigated analytically and numerically and different chaotic regions associated with different chaos probabilities are found. The results suggest a method for weakening or strengthening chaos by modulating the moving superlattice.

  19. New probability table treatment in MCNP for unresolved resonances

    SciTech Connect

    Carter, L.L.; Little, R.C.; Hendricks, J.S.; MacFarlane, R.E.

    1998-04-01

    An upgrade for MCNP has been implemented to sample the neutron cross sections in the unresolved resonance range using probability tables. These probability tables are generated with the cross section processor code NJOY, by using the evaluated statistical information about the resonances to calculate cumulative probability distribution functions for the microscopic total cross section. The elastic, fission, and radiative capture cross sections are also tabulated as the average values of each of these partials conditional upon the value of the total. This paper summarizes how the probability tables are utilized in this MCNP upgrade and compares this treatment with the approximate smooth treatment for some example problems.

  20. Code System to Calculate Pressure Vessel Failure Probabilities.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2001-03-27

    Version 00 OCTAVIA (Operationally Caused Transients And Vessel Integrity Analysis) calculates the probability of pressure vessel failure from operationally-caused pressure transients which can occur in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). For specified vessel and operating environment characteristics the program computes the failure pressure at which the vessel will fail for different-sized flaws existing in the beltline and the probability of vessel failure per reactor year due to the flaw. The probabilities are summed over themore » various flaw sizes to obtain the total vessel failure probability. Sensitivity studies can be performed to investigate different vessel or operating characteristics in the same computer run.« less

  1. Energy level structure and transition probabilities in the spectra...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Energy level structure and transition probabilities in the spectra of the trivalent lanthanides in LaFsub 3. Tables, diagrams Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Energy ...

  2. Computer simulation of the probability that endangered whales will interact with oil spills

    SciTech Connect

    Reed, M.; Jayko, K.; Bowles, A.; Anderson, E.; Leatherwood, S.

    1987-03-01

    A numerical model system was developed to assess quantitatively the probability that endangered bowhead and gray whales will encounter spilled oil in Alaskan waters. Bowhead and gray whale migration and diving-surfacing models, and an oil-spill trajectory model comprise the system. The migration models were developed from conceptual considerations, then calibrated with and tested against observations. The movement of a whale point is governed by a random walk algorithm which stochastically follows a migratory pathway. The oil-spill model, developed under a series of other contracts, accounts for transport and spreading behavior in open water and in the presence of sea ice. Historical wind records and heavy, normal, or light ice cover data sets are selected at random to provide stochastic oil-spill scenarios for whale-oil interaction simulations.

  3. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  4. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  5. A discussion on the origin of quantum probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Holik, Federico; Departamento de Matemtica - Ciclo Bsico Comn, Universidad de Buenos Aires - Pabelln III, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires ; Senz, Manuel; Plastino, Angel

    2014-01-15

    We study the origin of quantum probabilities as arising from non-Boolean propositional-operational structures. We apply the method developed by Cox to non distributive lattices and develop an alternative formulation of non-Kolmogorovian probability measures for quantum mechanics. By generalizing the method presented in previous works, we outline a general framework for the deduction of probabilities in general propositional structures represented by lattices (including the non-distributive case). -- Highlights: Several recent works use a derivation similar to that of R.T. Cox to obtain quantum probabilities. We apply Coxs method to the lattice of subspaces of the Hilbert space. We obtain a derivation of quantum probabilities which includes mixed states. The method presented in this work is susceptible to generalization. It includes quantum mechanics and classical mechanics as particular cases.

  6. Can WIMP dark matter overcome the nightmare scenario? (Journal...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Even if new physics beyond the standard model indeed exists, the energy scale of new ... In the nightmare scenario, we introduce a WIMP dark matter singlet under the standard ...

  7. Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a Fruitful Solar Garden

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    As part of a Do-It-Yourself Solar Market Analysis summer series, NREL's Solar Technical Assistance Team (STAT) is presenting a live webinar titled, "Community Solar Scenario Tool: Planning for a...

  8. Microsoft Word - Scenario E w Amendments.doc

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Treasury Rate 200bps (2.00%) o Initial Credit Spread 50 bps (0.50%) o TIC 250 bps (2.50%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  9. Microsoft Word - Scenario C w Amendments.doc

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Bank Rate Treasury + 100bps (1.00%) o 10 Year Treasury 200 bps (2.00%) TIC 300 bps (3.00%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  10. Microsoft Word - Scenario D w Amendments.doc

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Assumptions o Bank Rate Treasury + 100bps (1.00%) o 10 Year Treasury 200 bps (2.00%) TIC 300 bps (3.00%) Disclaimer: These scenarios are provided as a convenience for the...

  11. Biomass-to-Bioenergy Supply-Chain Scenario Analysis

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Biomass-to-Bioenergy Supply- Chain Scenario Analysis 21 May 2013 BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review Brian Bush National Renewable Energy Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 3 Government Policies Analysis Implications Inclusion decisions/scope Marketplace Structure Producer/Consumer exchanges Investment Financial decisions Input Scenarios Feedstock demand Oil prices Learning curves Evolution of Supply Chain for Biofuels

  12. Scenario Development for the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review: Assessing

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Stresses, Opportunities, and Resilience in the Transmission, Storage, and Distribution Systems for Oil, and Refined-Oil Products, Electricity, and Natural Gas | Department of Energy Scenario Development for the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review: Assessing Stresses, Opportunities, and Resilience in the Transmission, Storage, and Distribution Systems for Oil, and Refined-Oil Products, Electricity, and Natural Gas Scenario Development for the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review: Assessing Stresses,

  13. Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Methodology (December 2013) | Department of Energy Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) Integrating Electricity Subsector Failure Scenarios into a Risk Assessment Methodology (December 2013) The nation's power system consists of both legacy and next generation technologies. New grid technologies are introducing millions of novel, intelligent components to the electric grid that communicate in much more advanced ways than in

  14. NREL: Energy Analysis - Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios NREL annually documents a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (Standard Scenarios) to support and inform electric sector analysis in the United States. The products of this work, including assessments of current and projected technology cost and performance for both renewable and conventional electricity generation technologies, as well as market projections of

  15. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    SciTech Connect

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  16. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. Volume 2, Part 3: Internal Events Appendices I and J

    SciTech Connect

    Yakle, J.; Darby, J.; Whitehead, D.; Staple, B.

    1994-06-01

    This report provides supporting documentation for various tasks associated with the performance of the probablistic risk assessment for Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage at Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as documented in Volume 2, Part 1 of NUREG/CR-6143.

  17. Quantification of the effects of dependence on human error probabiliti...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    In estimating the probabilities of human error in the performance of a series of tasks in a nuclear power plant, the situation-specific characteristics of the series must be ...

  18. Review of Literature for Model Assisted Probability of Detection

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Ryan M.; Crawford, Susan L.; Lareau, John P.; Anderson, Michael T.

    2014-09-30

    This is a draft technical letter report for NRC client documenting a literature review of model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) for potential application to nuclear power plant components for improvement of field NDE performance estimations.

  19. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  20. Full-scale demonstration of low-NO{sub x} cell{trademark} burner retrofit: Addendum to long-term testing report, September 1994 outage: Examination of corrosion test panel and UT survey in DP&L Unit {number_sign}4

    SciTech Connect

    Kung, S.C.; Kleisley, R.J.

    1995-06-01

    As part of this DOE`s demonstration program, a corrosion test panel was installed on the west sidewall of Dayton Power & Light Unit no.4 at the J. M. Stuart Station (JMSS4) during the burner retrofit outage in November 1991. The test panel consisted of four sections of commercial coatings separated by bare SA213-T2 tubing. During the retrofit outage, a UT survey was performed to document the baseline wall thicknesses of the test panel, as well as several furnace wall areas outside the test panel. The purpose of the UT survey was to generate the baseline data so that the corrosion wastage associated with the operation of Low NO{sub x} Cell Burners (LNCB{trademark} burner) could be quantitatively determined. The corrosion test panel in JMSS4 was examined in April 1993 after the first 15-month operation of the LNCB{trademark} burners. Details of the corrosion analysis and UT data were documented in the Long-Term Testing Report. The second JMSS4 outage following the LNCB{trademark} burner retrofit took place in September 1944. Up to this point, the test panel in JMSS4 had been exposed to the corrosive combustion environment for approximately 31 months under normal boiler operation of JMSS4. This test period excluded the down time for the April 1993 outage. During the September 1994 outage, 70 tube samples of approximately one-foot length were cut from the bottom of the test panel. These samples were evaluated by the Alliance Research Center of B&W using the same metallurgical techniques as those employed for the previous outage. In addition, UT measurements were taken on the same locations of the lower furnace walls in JMSS4 as those during the prior outages. Results of the metallurgical analyses and UT surveys from different exposure times were compared, and the long-term performance of waterwall materials was analyzed. The corrosion data obtained from the long-term field study at JMSS4 after 32 months of LNCB{trademark} burner operation are summarized in this report.

  1. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 StorageReservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang,Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-09-19

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO{sub 2} to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO{sub 2} is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO{sub 2} were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO{sub 2} could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO{sub 2} fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies.

  2. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-06-16

    Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

  3. Cosmological moduli problem in large volume scenario and thermal inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Choi, Kiwoon; Park, Wan-Il; Shin, Chang Sub E-mail: wipark@kias.re.kr

    2013-03-01

    We show that in a large volume scenario of type IIB string or F-theory compactifications, single thermal inflation provides only a partial solution to the cosmological problem of the light volume modulus. We then clarify the conditions for double thermal inflation, being a simple extension of the usual single thermal inflation scenario, to solve the cosmological moduli problem in the case of relatively light moduli masses. Using a specific example, we demonstrate that double thermal inflation can be realized in large volume scenario in a natural manner, and the problem of the light volume modulus can be solved for the whole relevant mass range. We also find that right amount of baryon asymmetry and dark matter can be obtained via a late-time Affleck-Dine mechanism and the decays of the visible sector NLSP to flatino LSP.

  4. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    SciTech Connect

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  5. Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

    2001-06-05

    A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.

  6. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide

    2012-01-15

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  7. NREL 2016 Standard Scenarios Outlook Shows Continued Growth in Renewables

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    and Gas in the U.S. Power Sector - News Releases | NREL 2016 Standard Scenarios Outlook Shows Continued Growth in Renewables and Gas in the U.S. Power Sector Webinar on December 6 November 16, 2016 Graph of Renewable Energy Penetration by NREL. Renewable energy penetration in the U.S. power sector as projected by a subset of the Standard Scenarios, where the dashed line shows historical values. Penetration is defined as the fraction of load met by renewable energy. Source: NREL. The Energy

  8. Time parallelization of advanced operation scenario simulations of ITER plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Samaddar, D.; Casper, T. A.; Kim, S. H.; Berry, Lee A; Elwasif, Wael R; Batchelor, Donald B; Houlberg, Wayne A

    2013-01-01

    This work demonstrates that simulations of advanced burning plasma operation scenarios can be successfully parallelized in time using the parareal algorithm. CORSICA - an advanced operation scenario code for tokamak plasmas is used as a test case. This is a unique application since the parareal algorithm has so far been applied to relatively much simpler systems except for the case of turbulence. In the present application, a computational gain of an order of magnitude has been achieved which is extremely promising. A successful implementation of the Parareal algorithm to codes like CORSICA ushers in the possibility of time efficient simulations of ITER plasmas.

  9. Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Thailand-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  10. Malaysia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Malaysia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  11. Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Vietnam-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  12. India-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name India-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  13. Bangladesh-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Bangladesh-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  14. Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Indonesia-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  15. Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure ...

  16. Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name Japan-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  17. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Systems Analysis 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure ...

  18. China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 Jump to: navigation, search Name China-NIES Low-Carbon Society Scenarios 2050 AgencyCompany Organization National Institute for...

  19. PROBCON-HDW: A probability and consequence system of codes for long-term analysis of Hanford defense wastes

    SciTech Connect

    Piepho, M.G.; Nguyen, T.H.

    1988-12-01

    The PROBCON-HDW (PROBability and CONsequence analysis for Hanford defense waste) computer code system calculates the long-term cumulative releases of radionuclides from the Hanford defense wastes (HDW) to the accessible environment and compares the releases to environmental release limits as defined in 40 CFR 191. PROBCON-HDW takes into account the variability of input parameter values used in models to calculate HDW release and transport in the vadose zone to the accessible environment (taken here as groundwater). A human intrusion scenario, which consists of drilling boreholes into the waste beneath the waste sites and bringing waste to the surface, is also included in PROBCON-HDW. PROBCON-HDW also includes the capability to combine the cumulative releases according to various long-term (10,000 year) scenarios into a composite risk curve or complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). The system structure of the PROBCON-HDW codes, the mathematical models in PROBCON-HDW, the input files, the input formats, the command files, and the graphical output results of several HDW release scenarios are described in the report. 3 refs., 7 figs., 9 tabs.

  20. Assault frequency and preformation probability of the {alpha} emission process

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, H. F.; Royer, G.; Li, J. Q.

    2011-08-15

    A study of the assault frequency and preformation factor of the {alpha}-decay description is performed from the experimental {alpha}-decay constant and the penetration probabilities calculated from the generalized liquid-drop model (GLDM) potential barriers. To determine the assault frequency a quantum-mechanical method using a harmonic oscillator is introduced and leads to values of around 10{sup 21} s{sup -1}, similar to the ones calculated within the classical method. The preformation probability is around 10{sup -1}-10{sup -2}. The results for even-even Po isotopes are discussed for illustration. While the assault frequency presents only a shallow minimum in the vicinity of the magic neutron number 126, the preformation factor and mainly the penetrability probability diminish strongly around N=126.

  1. Bayesian Estimator of Protein-Protein Association Probabilities

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2008-05-28

    The Bayesian Estimator of Protein-Protein Association Probabilities (BEPro3) is a software tool for estimating probabilities of protein-protein association between bait and prey protein pairs using data from multiple-bait, multiple-replicate, protein LC-MS/MS affinity isolation experiments. BEPro3 is public domain software, has been tested on Windows XP and version 10.4 or newer of the Mac OS 10.4, and is freely available. A user guide, example dataset with analysis and additional documentation are included with the BEPro3 download.

  2. A comparison of standard evasion scenarios at near regional distances

    SciTech Connect

    Bos, R.; App, F.; Jones, E.; Dey, T.; Kamm, J.

    1997-01-01

    We performed numerical simulations of three nuclear testing evasion scenarios. These calculations were done in two parts. The first part was done near source (within 10 km) with a non-linear weapons effects code. Particle velocity histories from the non-linear code were linked to an elastic linear finite-difference code for the second part. Seismic waveforms from the evasion scenario calculations were compared with the waveforms for a non-evasive explosion calculation at near regional distances. The results of this comparison suggest that it may be important to include realistic stratigraphy in such simulations: the overall wave amplitude in the present simulations is reduced by only a factor of 3-5 in contradiction to factors of 20-100 in {open_quotes}classical{close_quotes} decoupling analyses for ideal (i.e., unlayered) media. Two of the evasion scenarios simulated retain explosive waveform characteristics at near regional distances, while the third scenario indicates that certain source geometries might lead to more non-explosive (i.e., earthquake-like) seismic signals.

  3. Calculating the probability of injected carbon dioxide plumes encountering faults

    SciTech Connect

    Jordan, P.D.

    2011-04-01

    One of the main concerns of storage in saline aquifers is leakage via faults. In the early stages of site selection, site-specific fault coverages are often not available for these aquifers. This necessitates a method using available fault data to estimate the probability of injected carbon dioxide encountering and migrating up a fault. The probability of encounter can be calculated from areal fault density statistics from available data, and carbon dioxide plume dimensions from numerical simulation. Given a number of assumptions, the dimension of the plume perpendicular to a fault times the areal density of faults with offsets greater than some threshold of interest provides probability of the plume encountering such a fault. Application of this result to a previously planned large-scale pilot injection in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin yielded a 3% and 7% chance of the plume encountering a fully and half seal offsetting fault, respectively. Subsequently available data indicated a half seal-offsetting fault at a distance from the injection well that implied a 20% probability of encounter for a plume sufficiently large to reach it.

  4. Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

    SciTech Connect

    Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes; Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling; Han, Lee

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

  5. Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Melaina, M.; Webster, K.

    2009-10-28

    Presentation describing transportation scenarios for meeting the 2050 DOE goal of reducing greenhouse gases by 80%.

  6. 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Agenda for August 9 - 10, 2006 This agenda provides information about the 2010 - 2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on August 9 - 10, 2006 in Washington, D.C. scenario_analysis_agenda.pdf (290.69 KB) More Documents & Publications Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

  7. Slow processes in startup scenarios of long-pulse gyrotrons

    SciTech Connect

    Nusinovich, G. S.; Sinitsyn, O. V.; Antonsen, T. M. Jr.; Vlasov, A. N.; Cauffman, S. R.; Felch, K. L.

    2006-08-15

    A gyrotron startup scenario describes the variation of gyrotron parameters during onset of a pulse. This typically includes variations in beam parameters during the voltage rise, in the course of which the operating mode is excited and then driven to high efficiency operation while suppressing other parasitic modes. For long-pulse gyrotrons, however, additional processes with longer time constants should also be considered as part of the startup scenario. Such slow processes include ion neutralization of the beam space charge, thermal expansion of cavity walls caused by their ohmic heating, and reduction of the beam current due to emission cooling of the cathode. In the present paper, we analyze the importance of these effects on the stability and efficiency of gyrotron operation.

  8. Certifying the quantumness of a generalized coherent control scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Scholak, Torsten Brumer, Paul

    2014-11-28

    We consider the role of quantum mechanics in a specific coherent control scenario, designing a “coherent control interferometer” as the essential tool that links coherent control to quantum fundamentals. Building upon this allows us to rigorously display the genuinely quantum nature of a generalized weak-field coherent control scenario (utilizing 1 vs. 2 photon excitation) via a Bell-CHSH test. Specifically, we propose an implementation of “quantum delayed-choice” in a bichromatic alkali atom photoionization experiment. The experimenter can choose between two complementary situations, which are characterized by a random photoelectron spin polarization with particle-like behavior on the one hand, and by spin controllability and wave-like nature on the other. Because these two choices are conditioned coherently on states of the driving fields, it becomes physically unknowable, prior to measurement, whether there is control over the spin or not.

  9. Planning substation capacity under the single-contingency scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, L.C.; Khator, S.K.; Schnepp, J.C.

    1995-08-01

    Florida Power and Light (FPL) adopts the single contingency emergency policy for its planning of substation capacity. This paper provides an approach to determine the maximum load which a substation can take on under such a policy. The approach consists of two LP models which determine: (1) the maximum substation load capacity, and (2) the reallocation of load when a substation`s demand cannot be met. Both models are formulated under the single-contingency scenario, an issue which had received little attention in the literature. Not only does the explicit treatment of the scenario provide an exact measure of a substation`s load limit, it also raises several important issues which previous works omit. These two models have been applied to the substation network of the Fort Myers District of the State of Florida.

  10. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  11. ANTI-GLITCHES WITHIN THE STANDARD SCENARIO OF PULSAR GLITCHES

    SciTech Connect

    Kantor, E. M.; Gusakov, M. E.

    2014-12-10

    Recent observations of a sudden spin down of the magnetar 1E2259+586, occurring on a timescale not exceeding two weeks (an event that has been dubbed an {sup a}nti-glitch{sup )}, still has not received any interpretation in terms of the standard scenario of pulsar glitches. Motivated by this observation, here we present a toy model that allows for anti-glitches in neutron stars under certain conditions within the standard approach.

  12. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    H2FAST National Renewable Energy Laboratory The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, provides a quick and convenient in-depth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. H2FAST is available in two formats: an interactive online tool and a downloadable Excel spreadsheet. The spreadsheet version of H2FAST offers basic and advanced user interface modes for modeling individual stations or groups of up to 10 stations. It provides users with detailed annual finance projections in

  13. Optimized Algorithm for Collision Probability Calculations in Cubic Geometry

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, R.D.M.

    2004-06-15

    An optimized algorithm for implementing a recently developed method of computing collision probabilities (CPs) in three dimensions is reported in this work for the case of a homogeneous cube. Use is made of the geometrical regularity of the domain to rewrite, in a very compact way, the approximate formulas for calculating CPs in general three-dimensional geometry that were derived in a previous work by the author. The ensuing gain in computation time is found to be substantial: While the computation time associated with the general formulas increases as K{sup 2}, where K is the number of elements used in the calculation, that of the specific formulas increases only linearly with K. Accurate numerical results are given for several test cases, and an extension of the algorithm for computing the self-collision probability for a hexahedron is reported at the end of the work.

  14. Simple and compact expressions for neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter

    SciTech Connect

    Minakata, Hisakazu; Parke, Stephen J.

    2015-05-07

    We reformulate perturbation theory for neutrino oscillations in matter with an expansion parameter related to the ratio of the solar to the atmospheric ?m2 scales. Unlike previous works, use a renormalized basis in which certain first-order effects are taken into account in the zeroth-order Hamiltonian. Using this perturbation theory we derive extremely compact expressions for the neutrino oscillations probabilities in matter. We find, for example, that the ?e disappearance probability at this order is of a simple two flavor form with an appropriately identified mixing angle and ?m2. Furthermore, despite exceptional simplicity in their forms they accommodate all order effects ?13 and the matter potential.

  15. Simple and compact expressions for neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Minakata, Hisakazu; Parke, Stephen J.

    2016-01-29

    We reformulate perturbation theory for neutrino oscillations in matter with an expansion parameter related to the ratio of the solar to the atmospheric Δm2 scales. Unlike previous works, use a renormalized basis in which certain first-order effects are taken into account in the zeroth-order Hamiltonian. Using this perturbation theory we derive extremely compact expressions for the neutrino oscillations probabilities in matter. We find, for example, that the νe disappearance probability at this order is of a simple two flavor form with an appropriately identified mixing angle and Δm2. Furthermore, despite exceptional simplicity in their forms they accommodate all order effectsmore » θ13 and the matter potential.« less

  16. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  17. Radioactive waste management treatments: A selection for the Italian scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Locatelli, G. [Univ. of Lincoln, Lincoln School of Engineering, Brayford Pool - Lincoln LN6 7TS (United Kingdom); Mancini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Via Lambruschini 4/B, Milano (Italy); Sardini, M. [Politecnico di Milano, Dept. of Energy, Via Lambruschini 4, Milano (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    The increased attention for radioactive waste management is one of the most peculiar aspects of the nuclear sector considering both reactors and not power sources. The aim of this paper is to present the state-of-art of treatments for radioactive waste management all over the world in order to derive guidelines for the radioactive waste management in the Italian scenario. Starting with an overview on the international situation, it analyses the different sources, amounts, treatments, social and economic impacts looking at countries with different industrial backgrounds, energetic policies, geography and population. It lists all these treatments and selects the most reasonable according to technical, economic and social criteria. In particular, a double scenario is discussed (to be considered in case of few quantities of nuclear waste): the use of regional, centralized, off site processing facilities, which accept waste from many nuclear plants, and the use of mobile systems, which can be transported among multiple nuclear sites for processing campaigns. At the end the treatments suitable for the Italian scenario are presented providing simplified work-flows and guidelines. (authors)

  18. Evaluations of Structural Failure Probabilities and Candidate Inservice Inspection Programs

    SciTech Connect

    Khaleel, Mohammad A.; Simonen, Fredric A.

    2009-05-01

    The work described in this report applies probabilistic structural mechanics models to predict the reliability of nuclear pressure boundary components. These same models are then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative programs for inservice inspection to reduce these failure probabilities. Results of the calculations support the development and implementation of risk-informed inservice inspection of piping and vessels. Studies have specifically addressed the potential benefits of ultrasonic inspections to reduce failure probabilities associated with fatigue crack growth and stress-corrosion cracking. Parametric calculations were performed with the computer code pc-PRAISE to generate an extensive set of plots to cover a wide range of pipe wall thicknesses, cyclic operating stresses, and inspection strategies. The studies have also addressed critical inputs to fracture mechanics calculations such as the parameters that characterize the number and sizes of fabrication flaws in piping welds. Other calculations quantify uncertainties associated with the inputs calculations, the uncertainties in the fracture mechanics models, and the uncertainties in the resulting calculated failure probabilities. A final set of calculations address the effects of flaw sizing errors on the effectiveness of inservice inspection programs.

  19. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 2, Part 1C: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for plant operational State 5 during a refueling outage, Main report (Sections 11--14)

    SciTech Connect

    Whitehead, D.; Darby, J.; Yakle, J.

    1994-06-01

    This document contains the accident sequence analysis of internally initiated events for Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as it operates in the Low Power and Shutdown Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. The report documents the methodology used during the analysis, describes the results from the application of the methodology, and compares the results with the results from two full power analyses performed on Grand Gulf.

  20. Evaluating the Probabilistic Land-Use Scenarios in the Radiological Dose Assessment for License Termination

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, S.Y.; Yu, C.; Kamboj, S.; Allison, T.; LePoire, D.; Mo, T.

    2006-07-01

    A recent trend in establishing regulatory policy regarding environmental cleanup has been the adoption of a risk-informed decision approach. This approach places an emphasis on the development of a defensible technical basis upon which cleanup decisions can be understood and accepted by stakeholders. The process has been exemplified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) approach to implement its License Termination Rule in Title 10, Part 20, Subpart E of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 20, Subpart E), for which probabilistic radiological dose assessment has been a key technical element for demonstrating compliance. Further guidance including NUREG-1757 and its supplemental document are also prepared for this purpose. The approach also entails extensive data collection to cover the range of parameter variability, along with interpretations of the probabilistic dose results and demonstration of compliance. One major remaining issue, however, involves the future use of the land following cleanup. Land use is a key factor that may profoundly influence dose assessment, which in turn will affect the level of cleanup and therefore the associated costs. Despite this, incorporation of land-use considerations into the current probabilistic dose assessment approach has not actually been performed in the regulatory process. In order to address the issue, a study was initiated to evaluate the potential influence of land use on dose analysis, to understand the possible ramifications in cleanup decision-making. A probabilistic distribution based on land use was developed as input into the probabilistic RESRAD analysis for the demonstration of this approach.. This results in an understanding of the characteristics of dose distributions as exhibited by various land-use scenarios. By factoring in the probability distribution of land-use scenarios, the potential 'levels of conservatism' can be explicitly defined and evaluated. The results allow the

  1. Simplifying Probability Elicitation and Uncertainty Modeling in Bayesian Networks

    SciTech Connect

    Paulson, Patrick R; Carroll, Thomas E; Sivaraman, Chitra; Neorr, Peter A; Unwin, Stephen D; Hossain, Shamina S

    2011-04-16

    In this paper we contribute two methods that simplify the demands of knowledge elicitation for particular types of Bayesian networks. The first method simplify the task of providing probabilities when the states that a random variable takes can be described by a new, fully ordered state set in which a state implies all the preceding states. The second method leverages Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to provide a way for the expert to express the degree of ignorance that they feel about the estimates being provided.

  2. Detection probabilities for random inspection in variable flow situations

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Ming-Shih

    1994-03-01

    Improvements in the efficiency and effectiveness of inventory-change verification are necessary at certain nuclear facilities, of which one example is low-enriched uranium fuel fabrication facilities. The Safeguards Criteria suggested carrying out interim inventory-change verifications with randomized inspections. This paper describes randomized inspection schemes for inventory change verifications and evaluates the achievable detection probabilities for realistic plant receipt and shipment schedules and stratum residence times as a. function of the inspection frequency and effort and compares these with the existing inspection strategies.

  3. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L.; Forester, J.; Johnson, J.

    1995-03-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively.

  4. Wilsonian renormalization group in the Randall-Sundrum 1 scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Lewandowski, Adam

    2005-01-15

    We find renormalization group transformations for the compactified Randall-Sundrum scenario by integrating out an infinitesimal slice of ultraviolet degrees of freedom near the Planck brane. Under these transformations the coefficients of operators on the Planck brane experience RG evolution. The extra-dimensional radius also scales, flowing to zero in the IR. We find an attractive fixed point in the context of a bulk scalar field theory. Calculations are simplified in the low energy effective theory as we demonstrate with the computation of a loop diagram.

  5. Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Improvements to Hydrogen Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) and Results May 8, 2007 Amgad Elgowainy Argonne National Laboratory Comparison of Delivery Pathways- V1.0 vs. V2.0 2 1 3 i delivery by a Loading, the plant Version 1.0 character zed components for 3 pathways with single mode. conditioning and storage are at or adjacent to Liquid Hydrogen (LH) Truck H2 Production 100 or 1500 kg/d Compressed H2 (CH) Truck H2 Production 3 or 7 kpsi 100 or 1500 kg/d H2 Production Gaseous H2 Pipeline

  6. Transition Strategies: Government Options and Market Penetration Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Transition Strategies Possible Range of Government Support Options * Hydrogen Fuel Initiative - 2015 commercialization decision * 2015 commercialization decision - 1000s of cars by 2015, and 10,000s of cars by 2018 * 2015 commercialization decision, 100,000s of cars by 2018 * 2010 commercialization decision, 10,000s of cars by 2015 and 100,000s of cars by 2018 * 2010 commercialization decision, 100,000s of cars by 2016 and millions by 2021. These scenarios are provided for transition analyses as

  7. Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Using HyTrans to Study H2 Transition Scenarios David Greene & Paul Leiby Oak Ridge National Laboratory Elzbieta Tworek Univ. of Tennessee & StrataG David Bowman Consultant DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop January 26, 2006 Washington, DC OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY We will try to cover 4 topics in ½ hour because what we want is your input. 1. What is HyTrans? 2. What can it do? 1. Previous analyses 2. Initial early transition runs 3. What

  8. Executive Summary High-Yield Scenario Workshop Series Report

    SciTech Connect

    Leslie Park Ovard; Thomas H. Ulrich; David J. Muth Jr.; J. Richard Hess; Steven Thomas; Bryce Stokes

    2009-12-01

    To get a collective sense of the impact of research and development (R&D) on biomass resource availability, and to determine the feasibility that yields higher than baseline assumptions used for past assessments could be achieved to support U.S. energy independence, an alternate High-Yield Scenario (HYS) concept was presented to industry experts at a series of workshops held in December 2009. The workshops explored future production of corn/agricultural crop residues, herbaceous energy crops (HECs), and woody energy crops (WECs). This executive summary reports the findings of that workshop.

  9. POF-Darts: Geometric adaptive sampling for probability of failure

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Ebeida, Mohamed S.; Mitchell, Scott A.; Swiler, Laura P.; Romero, Vicente J.; Rushdi, Ahmad A.

    2016-06-18

    We introduce a novel technique, POF-Darts, to estimate the Probability Of Failure based on random disk-packing in the uncertain parameter space. POF-Darts uses hyperplane sampling to explore the unexplored part of the uncertain space. We use the function evaluation at a sample point to determine whether it belongs to failure or non-failure regions, and surround it with a protection sphere region to avoid clustering. We decompose the domain into Voronoi cells around the function evaluations as seeds and choose the radius of the protection sphere depending on the local Lipschitz continuity. As sampling proceeds, regions uncovered with spheres will shrink,more » improving the estimation accuracy. After exhausting the function evaluation budget, we build a surrogate model using the function evaluations associated with the sample points and estimate the probability of failure by exhaustive sampling of that surrogate. In comparison to other similar methods, our algorithm has the advantages of decoupling the sampling step from the surrogate construction one, the ability to reach target POF values with fewer samples, and the capability of estimating the number and locations of disconnected failure regions, not just the POF value. Furthermore, we present various examples to demonstrate the efficiency of our novel approach.« less

  10. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible

  11. Methodology Using MELCOR Code to Model Proposed Hazard Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Gavin Hawkley

    2010-07-01

    This study demonstrates a methodology for using the MELCOR code to model a proposed hazard scenario within a building containing radioactive powder, and the subsequent evaluation of a leak path factor (LPF) (or the amount of respirable material which that escapes a facility into the outside environment), implicit in the scenario. This LPF evaluation will analyzes the basis and applicability of an assumed standard multiplication of 0.5 × 0.5 (in which 0.5 represents the amount of material assumed to leave one area and enter another), for calculating an LPF value. The outside release is dependsent upon the ventilation/filtration system, both filtered and un-filtered, and from other pathways from the building, such as doorways (, both open and closed). This study is presents ed to show how the multiple leak path factorsLPFs from the interior building can be evaluated in a combinatory process in which a total leak path factorLPF is calculated, thus addressing the assumed multiplication, and allowing for the designation and assessment of a respirable source term (ST) for later consequence analysis, in which: the propagation of material released into the environmental atmosphere can be modeled and the dose received by a receptor placed downwind can be estimated and the distance adjusted to maintains such exposures as low as reasonably achievableALARA.. Also, this study will briefly addresses particle characteristics thatwhich affect atmospheric particle dispersion, and compares this dispersion with leak path factorLPF methodology.

  12. The role of vector fields in modified gravity scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo; Koyama, Kazuya; Khosravi, Nima E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk

    2013-11-01

    Gravitational vector degrees of freedom typically arise in many examples of modified gravity models. We start to systematically explore their role in these scenarios, studying the effects of coupling gravitational vector and scalar degrees of freedom. We focus on set-ups that enjoy a Galilean symmetry in the scalar sector and an Abelian gauge symmetry in the vector sector. These symmetries, together with the requirement that the equations of motion contain at most two space-time derivatives, only allow for a small number of operators in the Lagrangian for the gravitational fields. We investigate the role of gravitational vector fields for two broad classes of phenomena that characterize modified gravity scenarios. The first is self-acceleration: we analyze in general terms the behavior of vector fluctuations around self-accelerating solutions, and show that vanishing kinetic terms of vector fluctuations lead to instabilities on cosmological backgrounds. The second phenomenon is the screening of long range fifth forces by means of Vainshtein mechanism. We show that if gravitational vector fields are appropriately coupled to a spherically symmetric source, they can play an important role for defining the features of the background solution and the scale of the Vainshtein radius. Our general results can be applied to any concrete model of modified gravity, whose low-energy vector and scalar degrees of freedom satisfy the symmetry requirements that we impose.

  13. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  14. Melting scenarios for three-dimensional dusty plasma clusters

    SciTech Connect

    Schella, Andre; Miksch, Tobias; Melzer, Andre; Schablinski, Jan; Block, Dietmar; Piel, Alexander; Thomsen, Hauke; Ludwig, Patrick; Bonitz, Michael

    2011-11-15

    The melting transition of finite three-dimensional dust clouds (Yukawa balls) from a solid-like to a liquid-like state is systematically studied with high spatial and temporal resolution of the individual grains by means of stereoscopy. Two different melting scenarios are reported: Melting is induced first by an increase of plasma power, and second by laser-induced heating. The experiments confirm that melting starts with a loss of orientational correlation, followed by a loss of the radial order upon further heating. While the plasma-power melting is driven via the ion wakefield, laser heating provides a more equilibrium scenario. The internal loss of correlations is well captured by the triple correlation function (TCF) which is insensitive to particle exchanges and the rotation of the cluster as a whole. The critical Coulomb coupling parameter for N=35 is determined as {Gamma}{sub crit}{approx_equal}570. The experimental findings are in good agreement with thermodynamic Monte Carlo simulations.

  15. Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario ...

  16. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell ...

  17. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  18. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  19. Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Krey, Volker; Luderer, Gunnar; Clarke, Leon E.; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-04-01

    This apper discusses Getting from here to there – energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF-27 scenarios

  20. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Infrastructure Final List of Attendees | Department of Energy Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Final List of Attendees scenario_analysis_attendees.pdf (431.11 KB) More Documents & Publications Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31,

  1. Quantum probabilities from quantum entanglement: experimentally unpacking the Born rule

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Harris, Jérémie; Bouchard, Frédéric; Santamato, Enrico; Zurek, Wojciech H.; Boyd, Robert W.; Karimi, Ebrahim

    2016-05-11

    The Born rule, a foundational axiom used to deduce probabilities of events from wavefunctions, is indispensable in the everyday practice of quantum physics. It is also key in the quest to reconcile the ostensibly inconsistent laws of the quantum and classical realms, as it confers physical significance to reduced density matrices, the essential tools of decoherence theory. Following Bohr's Copenhagen interpretation, textbooks postulate the Born rule outright. But, recent attempts to derive it from other quantum principles have been successful, holding promise for simplifying and clarifying the quantum foundational bedrock. Moreover, a major family of derivations is based on envariance,more » a recently discovered symmetry of entangled quantum states. Here, we identify and experimentally test three premises central to these envariance-based derivations, thus demonstrating, in the microworld, the symmetries from which the Born rule is derived. Furthermore, we demonstrate envariance in a purely local quantum system, showing its independence from relativistic causality.« less

  2. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two

  3. Matter-enhanced transition probabilities in quantum field theory

    SciTech Connect

    Ishikawa, Kenzo Tobita, Yutaka

    2014-05-15

    The relativistic quantum field theory is the unique theory that combines the relativity and quantum theory and is invariant under the Poincar transformation. The ground state, vacuum, is singlet and one particle states are transformed as elements of irreducible representation of the group. The covariant one particles are momentum eigenstates expressed by plane waves and extended in space. Although the S-matrix defined with initial and final states of these states hold the symmetries and are applied to isolated states, out-going states for the amplitude of the event that they are detected at a finite-time interval T in experiments are expressed by microscopic states that they interact with, and are surrounded by matters in detectors and are not plane waves. These matter-induced effects modify the probabilities observed in realistic situations. The transition amplitudes and probabilities of the events are studied with the S-matrix, S[T], that satisfies the boundary condition at T. Using S[T], the finite-size corrections of the form of 1/T are found. The corrections to Fermis golden rule become larger than the original values in some situations for light particles. They break Lorentz invariance even in high energy region of short de Broglie wave lengths. -- Highlights: S-matrix S[T] for the finite-time interval in relativistic field theory. S[T] satisfies the boundary condition and gives correction of 1/T . The large corrections for light particles breaks Lorentz invariance. The corrections have implications to neutrino experiments.

  4. Refinery Outages: First-Half 2016

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ... average retail price for ultra-low ... Gasoline consumption is forecast to increase ... on highway travel offsets a long-term trend toward vehicles that are more fuel efficient. ...

  5. North American Electric Reliability Council Outage Announcement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    EDT, major losses of electric load occurred in the northeastern United States and Canada in the Eastern Interconnection. Although the exact cause is not known at present, the ...

  6. Culture, and a Metrics Methodology for Biological Countermeasure Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, Mary J.

    2007-03-15

    Outcome Metrics Methodology defines a way to evaluate outcome metrics associated with scenario analyses related to biological countermeasures. Previous work developed a schema to allow evaluation of common elements of impacts across a wide range of potential threats and scenarios. Classes of metrics were identified that could be used by decision makers to differentiate the common bases among disparate scenarios. Typical impact metrics used in risk calculations include the anticipated number of deaths, casualties, and the direct economic costs should a given event occur. There are less obvious metrics that are often as important and require more intensive initial work to be incorporated. This study defines a methodology for quantifying, evaluating, and ranking metrics other than direct health and economic impacts. As has been observed with the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, impacts to the culture of specific sectors of society are less obvious on an immediate basis but equally important over the ensuing and long term. Culture is used as the example class of metrics within which • requirements for a methodology are explored • likely methodologies are examined • underlying assumptions for the respective methodologies are discussed • the basis for recommending a specific methodology is demonstrated. Culture, as a class of metrics, is shown to consist of political, sociological, and psychological elements that are highly valued by decision makers. In addition, cultural practices, dimensions, and kinds of knowledge offer complementary sets of information that contribute to the context within which experts can provide input. The quantification and evaluation of sociopolitical, socio-economic, and sociotechnical impacts depend predominantly on subjective, expert judgment. Epidemiological data is limited, resulting in samples with statistical limits. Dose response assessments and curves depend on the quality of data and its relevance to human modes of exposure

  7. Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro; Langlois, David; Takahashi, Tomo E-mail: langlois@apc.univ-paris7.fr E-mail: takesako@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2014-10-01

    We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the total entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.

  8. Inflation in a two 3-form fields scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kumar, K. Sravan; Marto, J.; Moniz, P. Vargas; Nunes, Nelson J. E-mail: jmarto@ubi.pt E-mail: pmoniz@ubi.pt

    2014-06-01

    A setting constituted by N 3-form fields, without any direct interaction between them, minimally coupled to gravity, is introduced in this paper as a framework to study the early evolution of the universe. We focus particularly on the two 3-forms case. An inflationary scenario is found, emerging from the coupling to gravity. More concretely, the fields coupled in this manner exhibit a complex interaction, mediated by the time derivative of the Hubble parameter. Our investigation is supported by means of a suitable choice of potentials, employing numerical methods and analytical approximations. In more detail, the oscillations on the small field limit become correlated, and one field is intertwined with the other. In this type of solution, a varying sound speed is present, together with the generation of isocurvature perturbations. The mentioned features allow to consider an interesting model, to test against observation. It is subsequently shown how our results are consistent with current CMB data (viz.Planck and BICEP2)

  9. Scenarios for the ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect

    Marin, Eduardo; Tomas, Rogelio; Bambade, Philip; Kuroda, Shigeru; Okugi, Toshiyuki; Tauchi, Toshiaki; Terunuma, Nobuhiro; Urakawa, Junji; Parker, Brett; Seryi, Andrei; White, Glen; Woodley, Mark; /SLAC

    2012-06-29

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  10. Scenarios For The ATF2 Ultra-Low Betas Proposal

    SciTech Connect

    Marin E.; Parker B.; Tomas R. Bambade Kuroda S. Okugi T. Tauchi T. Terunuma N. Urakawa J. Seryi A. White G. Woodley M.

    2010-05-23

    The current ATF2 Ultra-Low beta proposal was designed to achieve 20nm vertical IP beam size without considering the multipolar components of the FD magnets. In this paper we describe different scenarios that avoid the detrimental effect of these multipolar errors to the beam size at the interaction point (IP). The simplest approach consists in modifying the optics, but other solutions are studied as the introduction of super-conducting wigglers to reduce the emittance or the replacement of the normal-conducting focusing quadrupole in the Final Doublet (NC-QF1FF) with a super-conducting quadrupole one (SC-QF1FF). These are fully addressed in the paper.

  11. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    SciTech Connect

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  12. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    SciTech Connect

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  13. ACCELERATOR TRANSMUTATION OF WASTE TECHNOLOGY AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS

    SciTech Connect

    D. BELLER; G. VAN TUYLE

    2000-11-01

    During 1999, the U.S. Department of Energy, in conjunction with its nuclear laboratories, a national steering committee, and a panel of world experts, developed a roadmap for research, development, demonstration, and deployment of Accelerator-driven Transmutation of Waste (ATW). The ATW concept that was examined in this roadmap study was based on that developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) during the 1990s. The reference deployment scenario in the Roadmap was developed to treat 86,300 tn (metric tonnes initial heavy metal) of spent nuclear fuel that will accumulate through 2035 from existing U.S. nuclear power plants (without license extensions). The disposition of this spent nuclear reactor fuel is an issue of national importance, as is disposition of spent fuel in other nations. The U.S. program for the disposition of this once-through fuel is focused to characterize a candidate site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada for a geological repository for spent fuel and high-level waste. The ATW concept is being examined in the U.S. because removal of plutonium minor actinides, and two very long-lived isotopes from the spent fuel can achieve some important objectives. These objectives include near-elimination of plutonium, reduction of the inventory and mobility of long-lived radionuclides in the repository, and use of the remaining energy content of the spent fuel to produce power. The long-lived radionuclides iodine and technetium have roughly one million year half-lives, and they are candidates for transport into the environment via movement of ground water. The scientists and engineers who contributed to the Roadmap Study determined that the ATW is affordable, doable, and its deployment would support all the objectives. We report the status of the U.S. ATW program describe baseline and alternate technologies, and discuss deployment scenarios to support the existing U.S. nuclear capability and/or future growth with a variety of new fuel cycles.

  14. A POSSIBLE EVOLUTIONARY SCENARIO OF HIGHLY MAGNETIZED SUPER-CHANDRASEKHAR WHITE DWARFS: PROGENITORS OF PECULIAR TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect

    Das, Upasana; Mukhopadhyay, Banibrata; Rao, A. R. E-mail: bm@physics.iisc.ernet.in

    2013-04-10

    Several recently discovered peculiar Type Ia supernovae seem to demand an altogether new formation theory that might help explain the puzzling dissimilarities between them and the standard Type Ia supernovae. The most striking aspect of the observational analysis is the necessity of invoking super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses {approx}2.1-2.8 M{sub Sun }, M{sub Sun} being the mass of Sun, as their most probable progenitors. Strongly magnetized white dwarfs having super-Chandrasekhar masses have already been established as potential candidates for the progenitors of peculiar Type Ia supernovae. Owing to the Landau quantization of the underlying electron degenerate gas, theoretical results yielded the observationally inferred mass range. Here, we sketch a possible evolutionary scenario by which super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs could be formed by accretion on to a commonly observed magnetized white dwarf, invoking the phenomenon of flux freezing. This opens multiple possible evolution scenarios ending in supernova explosions of super-Chandrasekhar white dwarfs having masses within the range stated above. We point out that our proposal has observational support, such as the recent discovery of a large number of magnetized white dwarfs by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey.

  15. A Data Signature Approach for Analyzing, Manipulating and Understanding Collections of Graphical Summaries of Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Whitney, Paul D.; Powers, Mary E.; Chin, George; Johnson, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Sloughter, James M.

    2004-06-15

    Analysis goals associated with collections of scenarios include: • Summarizing a collection of scenarios – the summarization could take the form of identification of typical patterns of relations within the collection • Retrieve similar scenarios/cases – the retrieval could be based on parts of scenarios; the similar ‘complete’ scenarios could be used to suggest additional lines of investigation • Find “relation paths” between key actors A signature-vector strategy is presented that addresses the above analysis goals. The broad strategy has been applied in various settings.

  16. Spent Fuel Transportation Cask Response to the Caldecott Tunnel Fire Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Adkins, Harold E.; Koeppel, Brian J.; Cuta, Judith M.

    2007-01-01

    On April 7, 1982, a tank truck and trailer carrying 8,800 gallons of gasoline was involved in an accident in the Caldecott tunnel on State Route 24 near Oakland, California. The tank trailer overturned and subsequently caught fire. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), one of the agencies responsible for ensuring the safe transportation of radioactive materials in the United States, undertook analyses to determine the possible regulatory implications of this particular event for the transportation of spent nuclear fuel by truck. The Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) code developed by National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) was used to determine the thermal environment in the Caldecott tunnel during the fire. The FDS results were used to define boundary conditions for a thermal transient model of a truck transport cask containing spent nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Assurance Corporation (NAC) Legal Weight Truck (LWT) transportation cask was selected for this evaluation, as it represents a typical truck (over-the-road) cask, and can be used to transport a wide variety of spent nuclear fuels. Detailed analysis of the cask response to the fire was performed using the ANSYS® computer code to evaluate the thermal performance of the cask design in this fire scenario. This report describes the methods and approach used to assess the thermal response of the selected cask design to the conditions predicted in the Caldecott tunnel fire. The results of the analysis are presented in detail, with an evaluation of the cask response to the fire. The staff concluded that some components of smaller transportation casks resembling the NAC LWT, despite placement within an ISO container, could degrade significantly. Small transportation casks similar to the NAC LWT would probably experience failure of seals in this severe accident scenario. USNRC staff evaluated the radiological consequences of the cask response to the Caldecott tunnel fire. Although some

  17. Utilizing the sequential probability ratio test for building joint monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Allen, D. W.; Sohn, H.; Worden, K.; Farrar, C. R.

    2002-01-01

    In this application of the statistical pattern recognition paradigm, a prediction model of a chosen feature is developed from the time domain response of a baseline structure. After the model is developed, subsequent feature sets are tested against the model to determine if a change in the feature has occurred. In the proposed statistical inference for damage identification there are two basic hypotheses; (1) the model can predict the feature, in which case the structure is undamaged or (2) the model can not accurately predict the feature, suggesting that the structure is damaged. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) develops a statistical method that quickly arrives at a decision between these two hypotheses and is applicable to continuous monitoring. In the original formulation of the SPRT algorithm, the feature is assumed to be Gaussian and thresholds are set accordingly. It is likely, however, that the feature used for damage identification is sensitive to the tails of the distribution and that the tails may not necessarily be governed by Gaussian characteristics. By modeling the tails using the technique of Extreme Value Statistics, the hypothesis decision thresholds for the SPRT algorithm may be set avoiding the normality assumption. The SPRT algorithm is utilized to decide if the test structure is undamaged or damaged and which joint is exhibiting the change.

  18. Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Hft, J.; Weber, J. K.; Raut, E.; Larson, V. E.; Wang, M.; Rasch, P. J.

    2015-01-06

    Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and midlatitude deep convection. These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak.moreThe same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.less

  19. Probability of detection models for eddy current NDE methods

    SciTech Connect

    Rajesh, S.N.

    1993-04-30

    The development of probability of detection (POD) models for a variety of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods is motivated by a desire to quantify the variability introduced during the process of testing. Sources of variability involved in eddy current methods of NDE include those caused by variations in liftoff, material properties, probe canting angle, scan format, surface roughness and measurement noise. This thesis presents a comprehensive POD model for eddy current NDE. Eddy current methods of nondestructive testing are used widely in industry to inspect a variety of nonferromagnetic and ferromagnetic materials. The development of a comprehensive POD model is therefore of significant importance. The model incorporates several sources of variability characterized by a multivariate Gaussian distribution and employs finite element analysis to predict the signal distribution. The method of mixtures is then used for estimating optimal threshold values. The research demonstrates the use of a finite element model within a probabilistic framework to the spread in the measured signal for eddy current nondestructive methods. Using the signal distributions for various flaw sizes the POD curves for varying defect parameters have been computed. In contrast to experimental POD models, the cost of generating such curves is very low and complex defect shapes can be handled very easily. The results are also operator independent.

  20. Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

    SciTech Connect

    Achi, Godswill U.

    2014-10-24

    The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing{sup 9} where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ{sub x}(u) of X{sub t} we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.

  1. Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

    SciTech Connect

    Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Hoft, Jan; Weber, J. K.; Raut, E.; Larson, Vincent E.; Wang, Minghuai; Rasch, Philip J.

    2015-01-06

    Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and mid-latitude deep convection.These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak. The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.

  2. Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Höft, J.; Weber, J. K.; Raut, E.; Larson, V. E.; Wang, M.; Rasch, P. J.

    2015-01-06

    Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method. The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and midlatitude deep convection. These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing ismore » weak. The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

  3. Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Storer, R. L.; Griffin, B. M.; Höft, J.; Weber, J. K.; Raut, E.; Larson, V. E.; Wang, M.; Rasch, P. J.

    2014-06-11

    Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method. The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and mid-latitude deep convection. These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing ismore » weak. The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.« less

  4. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  5. An analysis of the annual probability of failure of the waste hoist brake system at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP)

    SciTech Connect

    Greenfield, M.A.; Sargent, T.J.

    1995-11-01

    The Environmental Evaluation Group (EEG) previously analyzed the probability of a catastrophic accident in the waste hoist of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and published the results in Greenfield (1990; EEG-44) and Greenfield and Sargent (1993; EEG-53). The most significant safety element in the waste hoist is the hydraulic brake system, whose possible failure was identified in these studies as the most important contributor in accident scenarios. Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Waste Isolation Division has calculated the probability of an accident involving the brake system based on studies utilizing extensive fault tree analyses. This analysis conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used point estimates to describe the probability of failure and includes failure rates for the various components comprising the brake system. An additional controlling factor in the DOE calculations is the mode of operation of the brake system. This factor enters for the following reason. The basic failure rate per annum of any individual element is called the Event Probability (EP), and is expressed as the probability of failure per annum. The EP in turn is the product of two factors. One is the {open_quotes}reported{close_quotes} failure rate, usually expressed as the probability of failure per hour and the other is the expected number of hours that the element is in use, called the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes}. In many instances the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} will be the number of operating hours of the brake system per annum. However since the operation of the waste hoist system includes regular {open_quotes}reoperational check{close_quotes} tests, the {open_quotes}mission time{close_quotes} for standby components is reduced in accordance with the specifics of the operational time table.

  6. Deployment Scenario of Heavy Water Cooled Thorium Breeder Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Mardiansah, Deby; Takaki, Naoyuki

    2010-06-22

    Deployment scenario of heavy water cooled thorium breeder reactor has been studied. We have assumed to use plutonium and thorium oxide fuel in water cooled reactor to produce {sup 233}U which will be used in thorium breeder reactor. The objective is to analysis the potential of water cooled Th-Pu reactor for replacing all of current LWRs especially in Japan. In this paper, the standard Pressurize Water Reactor (PWR) has been designed to produce 3423 MWt; (i) Th-Pu PWR, (ii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR = 1.0) and (iii) Th-Pu HWR (MFR 1.2). The properties and performance of the core were investigated by using cell and core calculation code. Th-Pu PWR or HWR produces {sup 233}U to introduce thorium breeder reactor. The result showed that to replace all (60 GWe) LWR by thorium breeder reactor within a period of one century, Th-Pu oxide fueled PWR has insufficient capability to produce necessary amount of {sup 233}U and Th-Pu oxide fueled HWR has almost enough potential to produce {sup 233}U but shows positive void reactivity coefficient.

  7. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An IntegratedScenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-09-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible "technology paths" to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of "alternative" electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic.

  8. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Ayres, R.U.; Ridker, R.G.; Watson, W.D. Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    The objective of the comparative assessment is to develop an initial understanding of the SPS with respect to a limited set of energy alternatives. A comparative methodology report describes the multi-step process in the comparative assessment. The first step is the selection and characterization of alternative energy systems. Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post-2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The object of this study is to provide a futures framework for evaluating SPS (i.e., factor prices, primary energy prices, and energy demands for the US from 1980 to 2030). The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that have been used for long-range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long-range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed. (WHK)

  9. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oil prices

  10. Probability of pipe fracture in the primary coolant loop of a PWR Plant. Volume 7. System failure probability analysis. Load Combination Program Project I final report

    SciTech Connect

    George, L.; Mensing, R.

    1981-06-01

    This volume describes the computational methodology used to estimate the probability of a simultaneous occurrence of an earthquake and a primary coolant loop pipe fracture caused directly by an earthquake for a pressurized water reactor. Point estimates of this probability, based on a simulation experiment, and the probabilities of related events are included. Simulation is used to estimate weld fracture probabilities conditional on a crack initially existing and an earthquake of specified intensity occurring at a specified time in the life of the plant. These estimates are combined with probabilities associated with the occurrence of an earthquake and the existence of a crack to obtain an estimate of the probability of simultaneous earthquake and pipe fracture for the entire primary coolant loop piping system. A point estimate of probability, as outlined in this volume, does not fully take into consideration all of the uncertainties associated with an analysis of this type. Uncertainty analysis, confidence interval estimates, and sensitivity measures better reflect potential uncertainties. These topics are discussed. Finally, a discussion of the use of a risk-based, rather than a probability-based, decision criterion for deciding whether to decouple is included. 13 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  11. Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

    SciTech Connect

    Brettin, Thomas S.; Cottingham, Robert W.; Griffith, Shelton D.; Quest, Daniel J.

    2015-09-08

    A system and method of integrating diverse sources of data and data streams is presented. The method can include selecting a scenario based on a topic, creating a multi-relational directed graph based on the scenario, identifying and converting resources in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the resources, identifying data feeds in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the data feeds, identifying analytical routines in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph using the analytical routines and identifying data outputs in accordance with the scenario and defining queries to produce the data outputs from the multi-directed graph.

  12. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  13. Preliminary analyses of scenarios for potential human interference for repositories in three salt formations

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1985-10-01

    Preliminary analyses of scenarios for human interference with the performance of a radioactive waste repository in a deep salt formation are presented. The following scenarios are analyzed: (1) the U-Tube Connection Scenario involving multiple connections between the repository and the overlying aquifer system; (2) the Single Borehole Intrusion Scenario involving penetration of the repository by an exploratory borehole that simultaneously connects the repository with overlying and underlying aquifers; and (3) the Pressure Release Scenario involving inflow of water to saturate any void space in the repository prior to creep closure with subsequent release under near lithostatic pressures following creep closure. The methodology to evaluate repository performance in these scenarios is described and this methodology is applied to reference systems in three candidate formations: bedded salt in the Palo Duro Basin, Texas; bedded salt in the Paradox Basin, Utah; and the Richton Salt Dome, Mississippi, of the Gulf Coast Salt Dome Basin.

  14. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major difference

  15. Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 | Department of Energy Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 Participant List for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting on January 31, 2007 This list describes the participants at the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  16. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation | Department of Energy 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation group_1_summary.pdf (138.27 KB) More Documents & Publications 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2

  17. DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy August 9-10, 2006 DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: August 9-10, 2006 The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on August 9-10, 2006. The meeting was held to review preliminary results of DOE's hydrogen scenario analysis activities and to seek feedback from program stakeholders. The meeting brought together industry representatives, analysts, national laboratories, and DOE

  18. DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy January 31, 2007 DOE 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting: January 31, 2007 The U.S. Department of Energy sponsored a 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting in Washington, DC, on January 31, 2007. This third and last meeting with program stakeholders was held to review DOE's hydrogen scenario analysis activities and to seek additional feedback from outside experts. The meeting brought together industry representatives, analysts, national

  19. Scenario analysis of hybrid class 3-7 heavy vehicles.

    SciTech Connect

    An, F.; Stodolsky, F.; Vyas, A.; Cuenca, R.; Eberhardt, J. J.

    1999-12-23

    The effects of hybridization on heavy-duty vehicles are not well understood. Heavy vehicles represent a broader range of applications than light-duty vehicles, resulting in a wide variety of chassis and engine combinations, as well as diverse driving conditions. Thus, the strategies, incremental costs, and energy/emission benefits associated with hybridizing heavy vehicles could differ significantly from those for passenger cars. Using a modal energy and emissions model, they quantify the potential energy savings of hybridizing commercial Class 3-7 heavy vehicles, analyze hybrid configuration scenarios, and estimate the associated investment cost and payback time. From the analysis, they conclude that (1) hybridization can significantly reduce energy consumption of Class 3-7 heavy vehicles under urban driving conditions; (2) the grid-independent, conventional vehicle (CV)-like hybrid is more cost-effective than the grid-dependent, electric vehicle (EV)-like hybrid, and the parallel configuration is more cost-effective than the series configuration; (3) for CV-like hybridization, the on-board engine can be significantly downsized, with a gasoline or diesel engine used for SUVs perhaps being a good candidate for an on-board engine; (4) over the long term, the incremental cost of a CV-like, parallel-configured Class 3-4 hybrid heavy vehicle is about %5,800 in the year 2005 and $3,000 in 2020, while for a Class 6-7 truck, it is about $7,100 in 2005 and $3,300 in 2020; and (5) investment payback time, which depends on the specific type and application of the vehicle, averages about 6 years under urban driving conditions in 2005 and 2--3 years in 2020.

  20. Agenda for the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This agenda provides information about the 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure meeting on January 31, 2007.

  1. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 1 Summary Presentation PDF icon ...

  2. What does the 2C Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? The LIMITS Study on Durban Action Platform Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino; Luderer, Gunnar; Calvin, Katherine V.; DeMaere, Gauthier; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan; Rosler, Hilke; Schaeffer, Michiel; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2013-11-01

    This paper provides a novel and comprehensive model?based assessment of possible outcomes of the Durban Platform negotiations with a focus on emissions reduction requirements, the consistency with the 2C target and global economic impacts. The Durban Action scenarios investigated in the LIMITS studyall assuming the implementation of comprehensive global emission reductions after 2020, but assuming different 2020 emission reduction levels and different long?term stabilization targetsshow that the probability of exceeding the 2C limit increases with stabilization target from below one third for 450?470 ppm to 40?60% for 490?510 ppm in 2100. Global time?averaged economic costs of the Durban Action scenarios are limited across models, and are largely unaffected by the stringency of 2020 pledges. By contrast, the economic impact of delaying action beyond 2030 is much stronger on transitional costs. The main significance of short term action in the period 2010?2030 lies in preparing the ground for steep emissions reductions thereafter by inducing global emissions to peak and decline. The institutional challenges of all scenarios with fragmented near?term climate policy can be expected to be high as reflected in a steep rise of carbon prices and decarbonization rates until 2040. We conclude that an agreement on comprehensive emissions reductions to be implemented from 2020 onwards has particular significance for meeting long term climate policy objectives.

  3. Scenarios for the Hanford Immobilized Low-Activity Waste (ILAW) performance assessment

    SciTech Connect

    MANN, F.M.

    1999-03-17

    Scenarios describing representative exposure cases associated with the disposal of low activity waste from the Hanford Waste Tanks have been defined. These scenarios are based on guidance from the Department of Energy, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and previous Hanford waste disposal performance assessments.

  4. Scenarios of transition to chaos competition in low-temperature plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Dimitriu, D. G.

    2013-11-13

    Dynamics of a fireball created in front of a positively biased electrode immersed into low-temperature plasma was experimentally investigated. By analyzing the time series of the oscillations of the current collected by the electrode, several successive scenarios of transitions to chaos were identified: by intermittencies, by cascade of sub-harmonic bifurcations and by quasi-periodicity (Ruelle-Takens scenario)

  5. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Melaina, Marc

    2015-04-21

    This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

  6. Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

    2015-05-12

    This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

  7. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kram, Tom; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01

    The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climate policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

  8. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  9. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.; Keyser, D.; Flores-Espino, F.; Miles, J.; Zammit, D.; Loomis, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  10. H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Scenario Model and Analyses H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analyses Presentation on H2A Delivery Scenario Model and Analysis for the DOE Hydrogen Delivery High-Pressure Tanks and Analysis Project Review Meeting held February 8-9, 2005 at Argonne National Laboratory 06_mintz_gillette_h2a.pdf (2.89 MB) More Documents & Publications H2A Delivery Models and Results H2A Hydrogen Delivery Infrastructure Analysis Models and Conventional Pathway Options Analysis Results - Interim Report Hydrogen

  11. The transition probability and the probability for the left-most particle's position of the q-totally asymmetric zero range process

    SciTech Connect

    Korhonen, Marko; Lee, Eunghyun

    2014-01-15

    We treat the N-particle zero range process whose jumping rates satisfy a certain condition. This condition is required to use the Bethe ansatz and the resulting model is the q-boson model by Sasamoto and Wadati [Exact results for one-dimensional totally asymmetric diffusion models, J. Phys. A 31, 60576071 (1998)] or the q-totally asymmetric zero range process (TAZRP) by Borodin and Corwin [Macdonald processes, Probab. Theory Relat. Fields (to be published)]. We find the explicit formula of the transition probability of the q-TAZRP via the Bethe ansatz. By using the transition probability we find the probability distribution of the left-most particle's position at time t. To find the probability for the left-most particle's position we find a new identity corresponding to identity for the asymmetric simple exclusion process by Tracy and Widom [Integral formulas for the asymmetric simple exclusion process, Commun. Math. Phys. 279, 815844 (2008)]. For the initial state that all particles occupy a single site, the probability distribution of the left-most particle's position at time t is represented by the contour integral of a determinant.

  12. Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Lemaster, Michelle Nicole; Gay, David M.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Boggs, Paul T.; Ray, Jaideep

    2009-10-01

    Staggered bioterrorist attacks with aerosolized pathogens on population centers present a formidable challenge to resource allocation and response planning. The response and planning will commence immediately after the detection of the first attack and with no or little information of the second attack. In this report, we outline a method by which resource allocation may be performed. It involves probabilistic reconstruction of the bioterrorist attack from partial observations of the outbreak, followed by an optimization-under-uncertainty approach to perform resource allocations. We consider both single-site and time-staggered multi-site attacks (i.e., a reload scenario) under conditions when resources (personnel and equipment which are difficult to gather and transport) are insufficient. Both communicable (plague) and non-communicable diseases (anthrax) are addressed, and we also consider cases when the data, the time-series of people reporting with symptoms, are confounded with a reporting delay. We demonstrate how our approach develops allocations profiles that have the potential to reduce the probability of an extremely adverse outcome in exchange for a more certain, but less adverse outcome. We explore the effect of placing limits on daily allocations. Further, since our method is data-driven, the resource allocation progressively improves as more data becomes available.

  13. Modification for complex-particle emission probability in the pre-equilibrium exciton model

    SciTech Connect

    Miao Ron-zhi; Wu Guo-hua; Zheng Wei-han; Liu Jian-ye; Yu Chao-fan; Yu Xie

    1986-04-01

    Starting from a state density formula that distinguishes between neutrons and protons, we have derived corrections for the emission probability W/sub alphabeta/ for complex particles and the purely combinatorial probability R/sub alphabeta/. The calculated results agree well with experimental data and show clear improvement over previous calculations.

  14. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-02

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis forcriticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report(FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  15. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  16. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  17. June 3, 2014 Webinar- Features, Events, and Processes: Practical Considerations for Development and Selection of Scenarios

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    P&RA CoP Webinar - June 3, 2014 - Features, Events, and Processes: Practical Considerations for Development and Selection of Scenarios Geoff Freeze (SNL) and Roger Seitz (SRNL)

  18. Lifecycle Cost and GHG Implications of a Hydrogen Energy Storage Scenario (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Steward, D. M.

    2010-05-01

    Overview of life cycle cost and green house gas implications of a hydrogen energy storage scenario presented at the National Hydrogen Association Conference & Expo, Long Beach, CA, May 3-6, 2010

  19. LWR codes capability to address SFR BDBA scenarios: Modeling of the ABCOVE tests

    SciTech Connect

    Herranz, L. E.; Garcia, M.; Morandi, S.

    2012-07-01

    The sound background built-up in LWR source term analysis in case of a severe accident, make it worth to check the capability of LWR safety analysis codes to model accident SFR scenarios, at least in some areas. This paper gives a snapshot of such predictability in the area of aerosol behavior in containment. To do so, the AB-5 test of the ABCOVE program has been modeled with 3 LWR codes: ASTEC, ECART and MELCOR. Through the search of a best estimate scenario and its comparison to data, it is concluded that even in the specific case of in-containment aerosol behavior, some enhancements would be needed in the LWR codes and/or their application, particularly with respect to consideration of particle shape. Nonetheless, much of the modeling presently embodied in LWR codes might be applicable to SFR scenarios. These conclusions should be seen as preliminary as long as comparisons are not extended to more experimental scenarios. (authors)

  20. Ontology-based Software for Generating Scenarios for Characterizing Searches for Nuclear Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, Richard C; Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G; Wright, Michael C; Kruse, Kara L

    2011-01-01

    A software environment was created in which ontologies are used to significantly expand the number and variety of scenarios for special nuclear materials (SNM) detection based on a set of simple generalized initial descriptions. A framework was built that combined advanced reasoning from ontologies with geographical and other data sources to generate a much larger list of specific detailed descriptions from a simple initial set of user-input variables. This presentation shows how basing the scenario generation on a process of inferencing from multiple ontologies, including a new SNM Detection Ontology (DO) combined with data extraction from geodatabases, provided the desired significant variability of scenarios for testing search algorithms, including unique combinations of variables not previously expected. The various components of the software environment and the resulting scenarios generated will be discussed.

  1. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence determination of a waste tank criticality

    SciTech Connect

    Crowe, R.D.

    1996-09-27

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for criticality consequences for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Criticality scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  2. Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Integrated Market Modeling of Hydrogen Transition Scenarios with HyTrans Presentation by Paul Leiby of Oak Ridge National Laboratory at the Joint Meeting on Hydrogen Delivery Modeling and Analysis, May 8-9, 2007 deliv_analysis_leiby.pdf (740.06 KB) More Documents & Publications DOE Hydrogen Transition Analysis Workshop Hydrogen Policy and Analyzing the Transition Hydrogen Transition Study

  3. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Infrastructure | Department of Energy Systems Analysis » 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Introducing hydrogen as an energy carrier would involve major changes in the country's energy and vehicle fleet infrastructure. Technical challenges, costs, and risk will be highest in the near-term, when markets are very small and the technology and infrastructure are immature.

  4. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, Richard H.; Babiker, Mustafa; Brinkman, Sander; Calvo, Eduardo; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Elgizouli, Ismail; Emori, S.; Lin, Erda; Hibbard, K.; Jones, Roger; Kainuma, M.; Kelleher, Jessica; Lamarque, J. F.; Manning, M.; Matthews, Ben; Meehl, J.; Meyer, Leo; Mitchell, John; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; O'Neill, Brian; Pichs, Ramon; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven; Runci, Paul J.; Stouffer, Ronald; VanVuuren, D.; Weyant, John; Wilbanks, Thomas; van Ypersele, Jean P.; Zurek, Monica

    2008-10-01

    This report summarizes the findings and recommendations from the Expert Meeting on New Scenarios in Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 19- 21 September 2007. This report is the culmination of the combined efforts of the New Scenarios Steering Committee, an author team composed primarily of members of the research community, and numerous other meeting participants and external reviewers who provided extensive comments during the expert review process.

  5. A Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 (Presentation)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Reliable Muddle: Transportation Scenarios for the 80% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal for 2050 California Air Resource Board Scenario Meeting Marc Melaina Karen Webster October 28, 2009 Sacramento, California NREL/PR-560-47003 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Presentation Overview 2 Intro: Reducing LDV GHGs to 80% below 1990 levels * Transportation sector-specific emissions data and policy concerns. Part 1: Metrics for the 80% goal: A Pyramid Framework * Three

  6. 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation | Department of Energy 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation 2010-2025 Senario Analysis Meeting Discussion Group 2 Summary Presentation group_2_summary.pdf (82.13 KB) More Documents & Publications 2010-2025 Scenario Analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles and Infrastructure Meeting Discussion Group 1

  7. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-25

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Steam Intrusion from Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  8. Bremsstrahlung and gamma ray lines in 3 scenarios of dark matter annihilation

    SciTech Connect

    Giacchino, Federica; Tytgat, Michel H.G.; Lopez-Honorez, Laura E-mail: llopezho@vub.ac.be

    2014-08-01

    Gamma ray spectral features are of interest for indirect searches of dark matter (DM). Following Barger et al. we consider 3 simple scenarios of DM that annihilates into Standard Model (SM) fermion pairs. Scenario 1 is a Majorana DM candidate coupled to a charged scalar, scenario 2 is a Majorana DM coupled to a charged gauge boson and scenario 3 is a real scalar DM coupled a charged vector-like fermion. As shown by Barger et al., these 3 scenarios share precisely the same internal Bremsstrahlung spectral signature into gamma rays. Their phenomenology is however distinct. In particular for annihilation into light SM fermions, in the chiral limit, the 2-body annihilation cross section is p-wave suppressed for the Majorana candidates while it is d-wave suppressed for the real scalar. In the present work we study the annihilation into 2 gammas, showing that these three scenarios have distinct, and so potentially distinguishable, spectral signatures into gamma rays. In the case of the real scalar candidate we provide a new calculation of the amplitude for annihilation into 2 gammas.

  9. Scenario generation for stochastic optimization problems via the sparse grid method

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Michael; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, David

    2015-04-19

    We study the use of sparse grids in the scenario generation (or discretization) problem in stochastic programming problems where the uncertainty is modeled using a continuous multivariate distribution. We show that, under a regularity assumption on the random function involved, the sequence of optimal objective function values of the sparse grid approximations converges to the true optimal objective function values as the number of scenarios increases. The rate of convergence is also established. We treat separately the special case when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, and show how the sparse grid method can be adapted to the distribution by the use of quadrature formulas tailored to the distribution. We numerically compare the performance of the sparse grid method using different quadrature rules with classic quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, optimal rank-one lattice rules, and Monte Carlo (MC) scenario generation, using a series of utility maximization problems with up to 160 random variables. The results show that the sparse grid method is very efficient, especially if the integrand is sufficiently smooth. In such problems the sparse grid scenario generation method is found to need several orders of magnitude fewer scenarios than MC and QMC scenario generation to achieve the same accuracy. As a result, it is indicated that the method scales well with the dimension of the distribution--especially when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, in which case the method appears scalable to thousands of random variables.

  10. Reducing the Probability of Incidents Through Behavior-Based Safety -- An Anomaly or Not?

    SciTech Connect

    Turek, John A

    2002-07-23

    Reducing the probability of incidents through Behavior-Based Safety-an anomaly or not? Can a Behavior-Based Safety (BBS) process reduce the probability of an employee sustaining a work-related injury or illness? This presentation describes the actions taken to implement a sustainable BBS process and evaluates its effectiveness. The BBS process at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center used a pilot population of national laboratory employees to: Achieve employee and management support; Reduce the probability of employees' sustaining work-related injuries and illnesses; and Provide support for additional funding to expand within the laboratory.

  11. Reducing the Probability of Incidents Through Behavior-Based Safety -- An Anomaly or Not?

    SciTech Connect

    Turek, John A

    2002-07-23

    Reducing the probability of incidents through Behavior-Based Safety--an anomaly or not? Can a Behavior-Based Safety (BBS) process reduce the probability of an employee sustaining a work-related injury or illness? This presentation describes the actions taken to implement a sustainable BBS process and evaluates its effectiveness. The BBS process at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center used a pilot population of national laboratory employees to: Achieve employee and management support; Reduce the probability of employees' sustaining work-related injuries and illnesses; and Provide support for additional funding to expand within the laboratory.

  12. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-12-01

    Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push. In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.

  13. Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan

    SciTech Connect

    Kokorin, A.O.

    1996-12-31

    Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

  14. Joint probability safety assessment for NPP defense infrastructure against extreme external natural hazards

    SciTech Connect

    Guilin, L.; Defu, L.; Huajun, L.; Fengqing, W.; Tao, Z.

    2012-07-01

    With the increasing tendency of natural hazards, the typhoon, hurricane and tropical Cyclone induced surge, wave, precipitation, flood and wind as extreme external loads menacing Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal and inland provinces of China. For all of planned, designed And constructed NPP the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane /Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations for NPP defense infrastructures. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence typhoon induced extreme external hazards and compare with IAEA 2006-2009 recommended safety regulation design criteria for some NPP defense infrastructures along China coast. (authors)

  15. Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

    2009-12-03

    The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They

  16. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu Zhixi Bai, Hongtao Xu He Zhu Tan

    2011-11-15

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  17. THE HYBRID CONe WD + He STAR SCENARIO FOR THE PROGENITORS OF TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, B.; Meng, X.; Liu, D.-D.; Han, Z.; Liu, Z.-W.

    2014-10-20

    Hybrid CONe white dwarfs (WDs) have been suggested to be possible progenitors of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). In this Letter, we systematically studied the hybrid CONe WD + He star scenario for the progenitors of SNe Ia, in which a hybrid CONe WD increases its mass to the Chandrasekhar mass limit by accreting He-rich material from a non-degenerate He star. We obtained the SN Ia birthrates and delay times for this scenario using to a series of detailed binary population synthesis simulations. The SN Ia birthrates for this scenario are ∼0.033-0.539 × 10{sup –3} yr{sup –1}, which roughly accounts for 1%-18% of all SNe Ia. The estimated delay times are ∼28 Myr-178 Myr, which makes these the youngest SNe Ia predicted by any progenitor model so far. We suggest that SNe Ia from this scenario may provide an alternative explanation for type Iax SNe. We also presented some properties of the donors at the point when the WDs reach the Chandrasekhar mass. These properties may be a good starting point for investigating the surviving companions of SNe Ia and for constraining the progenitor scenario studied in this work.

  18. Scenarios of Global Municipal Water-Use Demand Projections over the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Davies, Evan; Eom, Jiyong

    2013-03-06

    This paper establishes three future projections of global municipal water use to the end of the 21st century: A reference business-as usual (BAU) scenario, a High Technological Improvement (High Tech) scenario and a Low Technological Improvement (Low Tech) scenario. A global municipal water demand model is constructed using global water use statistics at the country-scale, calibrated to the base year of 2005, and simulated to the end of the 21st century. Since the constructed water demand model hinges on socioeconomic variables (population, income), water price, and end-use technology and efficiency improvement rates, projections of those input variables are adopted to characterize the uncertainty in future water demand estimates. The water demand model is linked to the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a global change integrated assessment model. Under the reference scenario, the global total water withdrawal increases from 466 km3/year in 2005 to 941 km3/year in 2100,while withdrawals in the high and low tech scenarios are 321 km3/ year and 2000 km3/ year, respectively. This wide range (321-2000 km3/ year) indicates the level of uncertainty associated with such projections. The simulated global municipal demand projections are most sensitive to population and income projections, then to end-use technology and efficiency projections, and finally to water price. Thus, using water price alone as a policy measure to reduce municipal water use may substantiate the share of municipal water price of peoples annual incomes.

  19. Scenarios constructed for basaltic igneous activity at Yucca Mountain and vicinity; Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    SciTech Connect

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.; Dockery, H.; Barnard, R.; Valentine, G.; Crowe, B.

    1993-08-01

    Basaltic volcanism has been identified as a possible future event initiating a release of radionuclides from a potential repository at the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository site. The performance assessment method set forth in the Site Characterization Plan (DOE, 1988) requires that a set of scenarios encompassing all significant radionuclide release paths to the accessible environment be described. This report attempts to catalogue the details of the interactions between the features and processes produced by basaltic volcanism in the presence of the presumed groundwater flow system and a repository structure, the engineered barrier system (EBS), and waste. This catalogue is developed in the form of scenarios. We define a scenario as a well-posed problem, starting from an initiating event or process and proceeding through a logically connected and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes (FEPs) to the release of contaminants.

  20. Effect of separation efficiency on repository loading values in fuel cycle scenario analysis codes

    SciTech Connect

    Radel, T.E.; Wilson, P.P.H.; Grady, R.M.; Bauer, T.H.

    2007-07-01

    Fuel cycle scenario analysis codes are valuable tools for investigating the effects of various decisions on the performance of the nuclear fuel cycle as a whole. Until recently, repository metrics in such codes were based on mass and were independent of the isotopic composition of the waste. A methodology has been developed for determining peak repository loading for an arbitrary set of isotopics based on the heat load restrictions and current geometry specifications for the Yucca Mountain repository. This model was implemented in the VISION fuel cycle scenario analysis code and is used here to study the effects of separation efficiencies on repository loading for various AFCI fuel cycle scenarios. Improved separations efficiencies are shown to have continuing technical benefit in fuel cycles that recycle Am and Cm, but a substantial benefit can be achieved with modest separation efficiencies. (authors)

  1. Neutronic Study of Slightly Modified Water Reactors and Application to Transition Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Chambon, Richard; Guillemin, Perrine; Nuttin, Alexis; Bidaud, A.

    2007-07-01

    In this paper we have studied slightly modified water reactors and their applications to transition scenarios. The PWR and CANDU reactors have been considered. New fuels based on Thorium have been tested: Thorium/Plutonium and Thorium/Uranium- 233, with different fissile isotope contents. Changes in the geometry of the assemblies were also explored to modify the moderation ratio, and consequently the neutron flux spectrum. A core equivalent assembly methodology was introduced as an exploratory approach and to reduce the computation time. Several basic safety analyses were also performed. We have finally developed a new scenario code, named OSCAR (Optimized Scenario Code for Advanced Reactors), to study the efficiency of these modified reactors in transition to Gen IV reactors or in symbiotic fleet. (authors)

  2. Fast ion generation and bulk plasma heating with three-ion ICRF scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kazakov, Ye. O. Van Eester, D.; Ongena, J.; Lerche, E.; Messiaen, A.

    2015-12-10

    Launching electromagnetic waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) is an efficient method of plasma heating, actively employed in most of fusion machines. ICRF has a number of important supplementary applications, including the generation of high-energy ions. In this paper, we discuss a new set of three-ion ICRF scenarios and the prospect of their use as a dedicated tool for fast ion generation in tokamaks and stellarators. A distinct feature of these scenarios is a strong absorption efficiency possible at very low concentrations of resonant minority ions (∼ 1% or even below). Such concentration levels are typical for impurities contaminating fusion plasmas. An alternative ICRF scenario for maximizing the efficiency of bulk D-T ion heating is suggested for JET and ITER tokamaks, which is based on three-ion ICRF heating of intrinsic Beryllium impurities.

  3. Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect to four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.

  4. Scenario generation for stochastic optimization problems via the sparse grid method

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Chen, Michael; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, David

    2015-04-19

    We study the use of sparse grids in the scenario generation (or discretization) problem in stochastic programming problems where the uncertainty is modeled using a continuous multivariate distribution. We show that, under a regularity assumption on the random function involved, the sequence of optimal objective function values of the sparse grid approximations converges to the true optimal objective function values as the number of scenarios increases. The rate of convergence is also established. We treat separately the special case when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, and show how the sparse grid methodmore » can be adapted to the distribution by the use of quadrature formulas tailored to the distribution. We numerically compare the performance of the sparse grid method using different quadrature rules with classic quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, optimal rank-one lattice rules, and Monte Carlo (MC) scenario generation, using a series of utility maximization problems with up to 160 random variables. The results show that the sparse grid method is very efficient, especially if the integrand is sufficiently smooth. In such problems the sparse grid scenario generation method is found to need several orders of magnitude fewer scenarios than MC and QMC scenario generation to achieve the same accuracy. As a result, it is indicated that the method scales well with the dimension of the distribution--especially when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, in which case the method appears scalable to thousands of random variables.« less

  5. Scenario Decomposition for 0-1 Stochastic Programs: Improvements and Asynchronous Implementation

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Ryan, Kevin; Rajan, Deepak; Ahmed, Shabbir

    2016-05-01

    We recently proposed scenario decomposition algorithm for stochastic 0-1 programs finds an optimal solution by evaluating and removing individual solutions that are discovered by solving scenario subproblems. In our work, we develop an asynchronous, distributed implementation of the algorithm which has computational advantages over existing synchronous implementations of the algorithm. Improvements to both the synchronous and asynchronous algorithm are proposed. We also test the results on well known stochastic 0-1 programs from the SIPLIB test library and is able to solve one previously unsolved instance from the test set.

  6. Statistic inversion of multi-zone transition probability models for aquifer characterization in alluvial fans

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Zhu, Lin; Dai, Zhenxue; Gong, Huili; Gable, Carl; Teatini, Pietro

    2015-06-12

    Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This study develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in anmore » accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. Finally, the result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations.« less

  7. Statistic inversion of multi-zone transition probability models for aquifer characterization in alluvial fans

    SciTech Connect

    Zhu, Lin; Dai, Zhenxue; Gong, Huili; Gable, Carl; Teatini, Pietro

    2015-06-12

    Understanding the heterogeneity arising from the complex architecture of sedimentary sequences in alluvial fans is challenging. This study develops a statistical inverse framework in a multi-zone transition probability approach for characterizing the heterogeneity in alluvial fans. An analytical solution of the transition probability matrix is used to define the statistical relationships among different hydrofacies and their mean lengths, integral scales, and volumetric proportions. A statistical inversion is conducted to identify the multi-zone transition probability models and estimate the optimal statistical parameters using the modified Gauss–Newton–Levenberg–Marquardt method. The Jacobian matrix is computed by the sensitivity equation method, which results in an accurate inverse solution with quantification of parameter uncertainty. We use the Chaobai River alluvial fan in the Beijing Plain, China, as an example for elucidating the methodology of alluvial fan characterization. The alluvial fan is divided into three sediment zones. In each zone, the explicit mathematical formulations of the transition probability models are constructed with optimized different integral scales and volumetric proportions. The hydrofacies distributions in the three zones are simulated sequentially by the multi-zone transition probability-based indicator simulations. Finally, the result of this study provides the heterogeneous structure of the alluvial fan for further study of flow and transport simulations.

  8. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

    2014-06-01

    This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

  9. Reconstruction of ionization probabilities from spatially averaged data in N dimensions

    SciTech Connect

    Strohaber, J.; Kolomenskii, A. A.; Schuessler, H. A.

    2010-07-15

    We present an analytical inversion technique, which can be used to recover ionization probabilities from spatially averaged data in an N-dimensional detection scheme. The solution is given as a power series in intensity. For this reason, we call this technique a multiphoton expansion (MPE). The MPE formalism was verified with an exactly solvable inversion problem in two dimensions, and probabilities in the postsaturation region, where the intensity-selective scanning approach breaks down, were recovered. In three dimensions, ionization probabilities of Xe were successfully recovered with MPE from simulated (using the Ammosov-Delone-Krainov tunneling theory) ion yields. Finally, we tested our approach with intensity-resolved benzene-ion yields, which show a resonant multiphoton ionization process. By applying MPE to this data (which were artificially averaged), the resonant structure was recovered, which suggests that the resonance in benzene may have been observed in spatially averaged data taken elsewhere.

  10. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore wind deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic.

  11. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  12. Scenarios constructed for nominal flow in the presence of a repository at Yucca Mountain and vicinity

    SciTech Connect

    Barr, G.E.; Hunter, R.L.; Dunn, E.; Flint, A.

    1995-03-01

    Scenario development for the system performance assessment of the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project defines a scenario as a well-posed problem connecting an initiating event with radionuclide release to the accessible environment by a logical and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes. Drawing on the advice and assistance of the Project`s principal investigators (PIs), a collection of release scenarios initiated by the nominal ground-water flow occurring in the vicinity of the potential Yucca Mountain high-level-waste repository is developed and described in pictorial form. This collection of scenarios is intended to provide a framework to assist PIs in recognizing essential field and calculational analyses, to assist performance assessment in providing guidance to site characterization, and to continue the effort to exhaustively identify all features, events, and processes important to releases. It represents a step in the iterative process of identifying what details of the potential site are important for safe disposal. 67 refs.

  13. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  14. THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

    SciTech Connect

    Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

    2011-08-04

    Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

  15. How Can China Lighten Up? Urbanization, Industrialization and Energy Demand Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Aden, Nathaniel T.; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David G.

    2009-07-01

    Urbanization has re-shaped China's economy, society, and energy system. Between 1990 and 2007 China added 290 million new urban residents, bringing the total urbanization rate to 45%. This population adjustment spurred energy demand for construction of new buildings and infrastructure, as well as additional residential use as rural biomass was replaced with urban commercial energy services. Primary energy demand grew at an average annual rate of 10% between 2000 and 2007. Urbanization's effect on energy demand was compounded by the boom in domestic infrastructure investment, and in the export trade following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2001. Industry energy consumption was most directly affected by this acceleration. Whereas industry comprised 32% of 2007 U.S. energy use, it accounted for 75% of China's 2007 energy consumption. Five sub-sectors accounted for 78% of China's industry energy use in 2007: iron and steel, energy extraction and processing, chemicals, cement, and non-ferrous metals. Ferrous metals alone accounted for 25% of industry and 18% of total primary energy use. The rapid growth of heavy industry has led China to become by far the world's largest producer of steel, cement, aluminum, and other energy-intensive commodities. However, the energy efficiency of heavy industrial production continues to lag world best practice levels. This study uses scenario analysis to quantify the impact of urbanization and trade on industrial and residential energy consumption from 2000 to 2025. The BAU scenario assumed 67% urbanization, frozen export amounts of heavy industrial products, and achievement of world best practices by 2025. The China Lightens Up (CLU) scenario assumed 55% urbanization, zero net exports of heavy industrial products, and more aggressive efficiency improvements by 2025. The five dominant industry sub-sectors were modeled in both scenarios using a LEAP energy end-use accounting model. The results of this study show that a CLU

  16. Tuning the tunneling probability between low-dimensional electron systems by momentum matching

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Daming; Beckel, Andreas; Geller, Martin; Lorke, Axel; Ludwig, Arne; Wieck, Andreas D.

    2015-06-15

    We demonstrate the possibility to tune the tunneling probability between an array of self- assembled quantum dots and a two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) by changing the energy imbalance between the dot states and the 2DEG. Contrary to the expectation from Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, the tunneling rate decreases with increasing injection energy. This can be explained by an increasing momentum mismatch between the dot states and the Fermi-circle in the 2DEG. Our findings demonstrate momentum matching as a useful mechanism (in addition to energy conservation, density of states, and transmission probability) to electrically control the charge transfer between quantum dots and an electron reservoir.

  17. Electric quadrupole transition probabilities and line strengths of Ti{sup 11+}

    SciTech Connect

    Gke, Yasin; elik, Gltekin; Y?ld?z, Murat

    2014-07-15

    Electric quadrupole transition probabilities and line strengths have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model for sodium-like titanium, considering many transition arrays. We employed numerical Coulomb approximation and non-relativistic HartreeFock wavefunctions for the expectation values of radii in determination of parameters of the model. The necessary energy values have been taken from experimental data in the literature. The calculated electric quadrupole line strengths have been compared with available data in the literature and good agreement has been obtained. Moreover, some electric quadrupole transition probability and line strength values not existing in the literature for some highly excited levels have been obtained using this method.

  18. Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kessel, C. E.; Campbell, D.; Gribov, Y.; Saibene, G.; Ambrosino, G.; Casper, T.; Cavinato, M.; Fujieda, H.; Hawryluk, R.; Horton, L. D.; Kavin, A.; Kharyrutdinov, R.; Koechl, F.; Leuer, J.; Loarte, A.; Lomas, P. J.; Luce, T.; Lukash, V.; Mattei, M.; Nunes, I.; Parail, V.; Polevoi, A.; Portone, A.; Sartori, R.; Sips, A. C.C.; Thomas, P. R.; Welander, A.; Wesley, J.

    2008-10-16

    The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation.

  19. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  20. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vleet, R.J.; Ryan, G.W.; Crowe, R.D.; Lindberg, S.E., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-04

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR): Steam Intrusion From Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included in the following sections to aid in the understanding of this accident scenario. Information validation forms citing assumptions that were approved for use specifically in this analysis are included in Appendix A. Copies of these forms are also on file with TWRS Project Files. Calculations performed in this document, in general, are expressed in traditional (English) units to aid understanding of the accident scenario and related parameters.

  1. Effects of quadrupole vibration of the fragments on. mu. - final state probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Zheng Guo-tong; Wang Yan-sen; Yuan Zu-shu; Qiu Zhi-hong

    1988-01-01

    The muon final-state probabilities after muon-induced fission of /sup 238/U are calculated by using the LCAO (Linear Combination of Atomic Orbital) method. The ordinary viscosity of the fissioning nucleus, the deformations and quadrupole vibrations of the two fragments are taken into account. The calculated results are compared with those obtained by neglecting the quadrupole vibration

  2. Review of Failure Probability Calculations for HFIR Primary Coolant System Piping

    SciTech Connect

    Simonen, Fredric A.

    2001-10-31

    During July 2001, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory was requested by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Facilities Management, Office of Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology, Germantown, Maryland, to review calculations of piping failure probabilities for the High Flux Test Reactor (HFIR) located at and operated by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The objective of the failure probability calculations was to estimate the probabilities of large leaks (>1500 gpm) that are of sufficient size to disable the primary coolant system of HFIR to the extent that there is a potential for core damage. PNNL reviewed the computational methods and the inputs to the calculations along with an evaluation of potential failure mechanisms not explicitly addressed by the ORNL calculations. The review concluded that the calculated failure probabilities even with consideration of uncertainties in the calculations and of other potential failure mechanisms provide a high level of confidence that failure frequencies are less than the stated goal of 10-6 piping failures per year.

  3. Performance of the Rayleigh task based on the posterior probability of tomographic reconstructions

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, K.M.

    1991-01-01

    We seek the best possible performance of the Rayleigh task in which one must decide whether a perceived object is a pair of Gaussian-blurred points or a blurred line. Two Bayesian reconstruction algorithms are used, the first based on a Gaussian prior-probability distribution with a nonnegativity constraint and the second based on an entropic prior. In both cases, the reconstructions are found that maximize the posterior probability. We compare the performance of the Rayleigh task obtained with two decision variables, the logarithm of the posterior probability ratio and the change in the mean-squared deviation from the reconstruction. The method of evaluation is based on the results of a numerical testing procedure in which the stated discrimination task is carried out on reconstructions of a randomly generated sequence of images. The ability to perform the Rayleigh task is summarized in terms of a discrimination index that is derived from the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We find that the use of the posterior probability does not result in better performance of the Rayleigh task than the mean-squared deviation from the reconstruction. 10 refs., 6 figs.

  4. SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Melaina, M.

    2015-03-23

    This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

  5. Some Results on the Analysis of Stochastic Processes with Uncertain Transition Probabilities and Robust Optimal Control

    SciTech Connect

    Keyong Li; Seong-Cheol Kang; I. Ch. Paschalidis

    2007-09-01

    This paper investigates stochastic processes that are modeled by a finite number of states but whose transition probabilities are uncertain and possibly time-varying. The treatment of uncertain transition probabilities is important because there appears to be a disconnection between the practice and theory of stochastic processes due to the difficulty of assigning exact probabilities to real-world events. Also, when the finite-state process comes as a reduced model of one that is more complicated in nature (possibly in a continuous state space), existing results do not facilitate rigorous analysis. Two approaches are introduced here. The first focuses on processes with one terminal state and the properties that affect their convergence rates. When a process is on a complicated graph, the bound of the convergence rate is not trivially related to that of the probabilities of individual transitions. Discovering the connection between the two led us to define two concepts which we call 'progressivity' and 'sortedness', and to a new comparison theorem for stochastic processes. An optimality criterion for robust optimal control also derives from this comparison theorem. In addition, this result is applied to the case of mission-oriented autonomous robot control to produce performance estimate within a control framework that we propose. The second approach is in the MDP frame work. We will introduce our preliminary work on optimistic robust optimization, which aims at finding solutions that guarantee the upper bounds of the accumulative discounted cost with prescribed probabilities. The motivation here is to address the issue that the standard robust optimal solution tends to be overly conservative.

  6. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Sips, A. C. C.; European Commission, Brussels; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-01

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ~10, while producing 500MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ~ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devicesmore » with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q₉₅~ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at ne/nGW ~ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H₉₈(y,2) ~ 1.0 only for bN = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (li(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to ne/nGW ~ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ~ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario preparation in hydrogen and helium requires high input power (>50 MW). H

  7. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF 27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine V.; Merrick, James; Mima, Silvana; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; Wada, Kenichi

    2013-10-15

    This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; howeverwith the exception of low temperature heatthere is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supplyare available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

  8. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios S. Tegen, D. Keyser, and F. Flores-Espino National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Miles and D. Zammit James Madison University D. Loomis Great Lakes Wind Network Technical Report NREL/TP-5000-61315 February 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is

  9. Potential Role of Concentrating Solar Power in Enabling High Renewables Scenarios in the United States

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Potential Role of Concentrating Solar Power in Enabling High Renewables Scenarios in the United States Paul Denholm, Maureen Hand, Trieu Mai, Robert Margolis, Greg Brinkman, Easan Drury, Matthew Mowers, and Craig Turchi Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-56294 October 2012 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. National Renewable Energy Laboratory 15013 Denver West

  10. Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

    SciTech Connect

    Barber, E.J.

    1991-12-31

    In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

  11. PF coil voltage optimization for start-up scenarios in air core tokamaks

    SciTech Connect

    Albanese, R.; Martone, R.; Ambrosino, G.; Pironti, A.

    1994-09-01

    The basic features of a procedure for the optimization of the plasma scenario in an air core tokamak are presented. The method takes into account the eddy currents in the passive conducting structures. The problem is reduced to the synthesis of time-varying magnetic field. The solution of this inverse electromagnetic problem is carried out by means of an optimization procedure based on the receding horizon approach. The paper includes an example of application to the ITER tokamak.

  12. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer (Poster), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer A. Meintz, T. Markel, E. Burton, L. Wang, J. Gonder, A. Brooker, and A. Konan Work sponsored by United States Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicles Technologies Office, Vehicle Systems Program The information contained in this poster is subject to a government license. 2015 IEEE PELS Workshop on

  13. Better Fusion Plasma Operating Scenarios are Being Explored and Extended on

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    the Alcator C-Mod Tokamak | U.S. DOE Office of Science (SC) Better Fusion Plasma Operating Scenarios are Being Explored and Extended on the Alcator C-Mod Tokamak Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) FES Home About Research Facilities Science Highlights Benefits of FES Funding Opportunities Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee (FESAC) Community Resources Contact Information Fusion Energy Sciences U.S. Department of Energy SC-24/Germantown Building 1000 Independence Ave., SW Washington, DC 20585

  14. Binary interactions as a possible scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters

    SciTech Connect

    Jiang, Dengkai; Han, Zhanwen; Li, Lifang E-mail: zhanwenhan@ynao.ac.cn

    2014-07-01

    Observations have revealed the presence of multiple stellar populations in globular clusters (GCs) that exhibit wide abundance variations and multiple sequences in the Hertzsprung-Russell (HR) diagram. We present a scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in GCs. In this scenario, initial GCs are single-generation clusters, and our model predicts that the stars with anomalous abundances observed in GCs are merged stars and accretor stars produced by binary interactions—rapidly rotating stars at the moment of their formation—and that these stars are more massive than normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. We find that, due to their own evolution, these rapidly rotating stars have surface abundances, effective temperatures, and luminosities that are different from normal single stars in the same evolutionary stage. This stellar population of binaries reproduces two important points of observational evidence of multiple stellar populations: a Na-O anticorrelation and multiple sequences in the HR diagram. This evidence suggests that binary interactions may be a possible scenario for the formation of multiple stellar populations in GCs.

  15. The Importance of High Temporal Resolution in Modeling Renewable Energy Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolosi, Marco; Mills, Andrew D; Wiser, Ryan H

    2010-10-08

    Traditionally, modeling investment and dispatch problems in electricity economics has been limited by computation power. Due to this limitation, simplifications are applied. One common practice, for example, is to reduce the temporal resolution of the dispatch by clustering similar load levels. The increase of intermittent electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) changes the validity of this assumption. RES-E already cover a certain amount of the total demand. This leaves an increasingly volatile residual demand to be matched by the conventional power market. This paper quantifies differences in investment decisions by applying three different time-resolution residual load patterns in an investment and dispatch power system model. The model optimizes investment decisions in five year steps between today and 2030 with residual load levels for 8760, 288 and 16 time slices per year. The market under consideration is the four zone ERCOT market in Texas. The results show that investment decisions significantly differ across the three scenarios. In particular, investments into base-load technologies are substantially reduced in the high resolution scenario (8760 residual load levels) relative to the scenarios with lower temporal resolution. Additionally, the amount of RES-E curtailment and the market value of RES-E exhibit noteworthy differences.

  16. Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power with Thermal Energy Storage in a California 33% Renewable Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Denholm, P.; Wan, Y. H.; Hummon, M.; Mehos, M.

    2013-03-01

    This analysis evaluates CSP with TES in a scenario where California derives 33% of its electricity from renewable energy sources. It uses a commercial grid simulation tool to examine the avoided operational and capacity costs associated with CSP and compares this value to PV and a baseload generation with constant output. Overall, the analysis demonstrates several properties of dispatchable CSP, including the flexibility to generate during periods of high value and avoid generation during periods of lower value. Of note in this analysis is the fact that significant amount of operational value is derived from the provision of reserves in the case where CSP is allowed to provide these services. This analysis also indicates that the 'optimal' configuration of CSP could vary as a function of renewable penetration, and each configuration will need to be evaluated in terms of its ability to provide dispatchable energy, reserves, and firm capacity. The model can be used to investigate additional scenarios involving alternative technology options and generation mixes, applying these scenarios within California or in other regions of interest.

  17. Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

    SciTech Connect

    Hong Jinglan; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

    2010-11-15

    A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment was ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.

  18. Low and high energy phenomenology of quark-lepton complementarity scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Hochmuth, Kathrin A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik (Werner-Heisenberg-Institut), Foehringer Ring 6, D-80805 Munich (Germany); Rodejohann, Werner [Physik-Department, Technische Universitaet Muenchen, James-Franck-Strasse, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2007-04-01

    We conduct a detailed analysis of the phenomenology of two predictive seesaw scenarios leading to quark-lepton complementarity. In both cases we discuss the neutrino mixing observables and their correlations, neutrinoless double beta decay and lepton flavor violating decays such as {mu}{yields}e{gamma}. We also comment on leptogenesis. The first scenario is disfavored on the level of one to two standard deviations, in particular, due to its prediction for |U{sub e3}|. There can be resonant leptogenesis with quasidegenerate heavy and light neutrinos, which would imply sizable cancellations in neutrinoless double beta decay. The decays {mu}{yields}e{gamma} and {tau}{yields}{mu}{gamma} are typically observable unless the SUSY masses approach the TeV scale. In the second scenario leptogenesis is impossible. It is, however, in perfect agreement with all oscillation data. The prediction for {mu}{yields}e{gamma} is in general too large, unless the SUSY masses are in the range of several TeV. In this case {tau}{yields}e{gamma} and {tau}{yields}{mu}{gamma} are unobservable.

  19. Representing Instructional Material for Scenario-Based Guided-Discovery Courseware

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Merrill, M. DAVID.; Rice, Douglas M.; Curtis, Darren S.

    2004-12-06

    The focus of this paper is to discuss paradigms for learning that are based on sound principles of human learning and cognition, and to discuss technical challenges that must be overcome in achieving this research goal through instructional system design (ISD) approaches that are cost-effective as well as conformant with today's interactive multimedia instruction standards. Fundamental concepts are to: engage learners to solve real-world problems (progress from simple to complex); relate material to previous experience; demonstrate what is to be learned using interactive, problem-centered activities rather than passive exposure to material; require learners to use their new knowledge to solve problems that demonstrate their knowledge in a relevant applied setting; and guide the learner with feedback and coaching early, then gradually withdraw this support as learning progresses. Many of these principles have been put into practice by employing interactive learning objects as re-usable components of larger, more integrated exercises. A challenge is to make even more extensive use of interactive, scenario-based activities within a guided-discovery framework. Because the design and construction of interactive, scenario-based learning objects and more complex integrated exercises is labor-intensive, this paper explores the use of interactive learning objects and associated representation schema for instructional content to facilitate development of tools for creating scenario-based, guided-discovery courseware.

  20. A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

    SciTech Connect

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Arnell, Nigel; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Kriegler, Elmar; Mathur, Ritu; O'Neill, Brian; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Zwickel, Timm

    2014-02-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes could pose to human and natural systems; how these could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce those risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to, and process of, developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, described in three other papers in this Special Issue (van Vuuren et al.; O'Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. The goal is to encourage climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to work together to develop policy-relevant scenarios and explore the implications of different possible futures for the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with increasing climate change.

  1. MSSM Higgs Boson Searches at the LHC: Benchmark Scenarios after the Discovery of a Higgs-like Particle

    SciTech Connect

    Carena, M.; Heinemeyer, S.; Stål, O.; Wagner, C.E.M.; Weiglein, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Higgs-like particle with a mass of about 125.5 GeV has been discovered at the LHC. Within the current experimental uncertainties, this new state is compatible with both the predictions for the Standard Model (SM) Higgs boson and with the Higgs sector in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). We propose new low-energy MSSM benchmark scenarios that, over a wide parameter range, are compatible with the mass and production rates of the observed signal. These scenarios also exhibit interesting phenomenology for the MSSM Higgs sector. We propose a slightly updated version of the well-known mh-max scenario, and a modified scenario (mh-mod), where the light CP-even Higgs boson can be interpreted as the LHC signal in large parts of the MA-tan \\beta\\ plane. Furthermore, we define a light stop scenario that leads to a suppression of the lightest CP-even Higgs gluon fusion rate, and a light stau scenario with an enhanced decay rate of h to \\gamma\\gamma\\ at large tan \\beta. We also suggest a \\tau-phobic Higgs scenario in which the lightest Higgs can have suppressed couplings to down-type fermions. We propose to supplement the specified value of the \\mu\\ parameter in some of these scenarios with additional values of both signs. This has a significant impact on the interpretation of searches for the non SM-like MSSM Higgs bosons. We also discuss the sensitivity of the searches to heavy Higgs decays into light charginos and neutralinos, and to decays of the form H to hh. Finally, in addition to all the other scenarios where the lightest CP-even Higgs is interpreted as the LHC signal, we propose a low-MH scenario, where instead the heavy CP-even Higgs boson corresponds to the new state around 125.5 GeV.

  2. Probability, consequences, and mitigation for lightning strikes to Hanford site high-level waste tanks

    SciTech Connect

    Zach, J.J.

    1996-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to summarize selected lightning issues concerning the Hanford Waste Tanks. These issues include the probability of lightning discharge striking the area immediately adjacent to a tank including a riser, the consequences of significant energy deposition from a lightning strike in a tank, and mitigating actions that have been or are being taken. The major conclusion of this report is that the probability of a lightning strike depositing sufficient energy in a tank to cause an effect on employees or the public is unlikely;but there are insufficient, quantitative data on the tanks and waste to prove that. Protection, such as grounding of risers and air terminals on existing light poles, is recommended.

  3. Probability, consequences, and mitigation for lightning strikes of Hanford high level waste tanks

    SciTech Connect

    Zach, J.J.

    1996-06-05

    The purpose of this report is to summarize selected lightning issues concerning the Hanford Waste Tanks. These issues include the probability of a lightning discharge striking the area immediately adjacent to a tank including a riser, the consequences of significant energy deposition from a lightning strike in a tank, and mitigating actions that have been or are being taken. The major conclusion of this report is that the probability of a lightning strike deposition sufficient energy in a tank to cause an effect on employees or the public is unlikely;but there are insufficient, quantitative data on the tanks and waste to prove that. Protection, such as grounding of risers and air terminals on existing light poles, is recommended.

  4. Photon assisted processes: Probability amplitudes for the absorption and emission of photons and dc-photocurrents

    SciTech Connect

    Micu, C.; Racolta, D.; Papp, E.

    2014-11-24

    In this paper one deals with the derivation of probability amplitudes characterizing the photon assisted injection of electrons in a two-terminal quantum conductor. For this purpose one accounts for spatially constant but time dependent periodic voltages applied on an Ohmic contact. Resorting to the discrete Fourier transform provides the probability amplitudes for the emission and absorption of photons in terms of squared Bessel functions of the first kind and integer order. Several kinds of ac-pulses like sinusoidal and dc+sinusoidal are assumed. Mean square values concerning photon numbers have been discussed in some more detail. Time averages of squared time dependent classical currents and leading corrections to the rescaled dc-photocurrent have also been accounted for.

  5. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  6. Energy Flowchart Scenarios of Future U.S. Energy Use Incorporating Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, G; Daily III, W

    2004-06-03

    This project has adapted LLNL energy flowcharts of historical U.S. energy use drawn from the DOE Energy Information Administration (EIA) data to include scenarios involving hydrogen use. A flexible automated process for preparing and drawing these flowcharts has also been developed. These charts show the flows of energy between primary sectors of the economy so that a user can quickly understand the major implications of a proposed scenario. The software can rapidly generate a spectrum of U.S. energy use scenarios in the 2005-2050 timeframe, both with and without a transition to hydrogen-fueled transportation. These scenarios indicate that fueling 100% of the light duty fleet in 2050 (318 million 80 mpg-equivalent compressed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) will require approximately 100 million tonnes (10.7 quads) of H2/year, reducing petroleum use by at least 7.3 million barrels of oil/day (15.5 quads/yr). Linear extrapolation of EIA's 2025 reference projection to 2050 indicates approximate U.S. primary energy use of 180 quads/yr (in 2050) relative to current use of 97 quads/yr (comprising 39 quads/yr of petroleum). Full deployment of 50% efficient electricity generation technologies for coal and nuclear power and improvements in gasoline lightduty vehicle fleet fuel economy to 50 mpg would reduce projected U.S. primary energy consumption to 143 quads/yr in 2050, comprising 58 quads/yr (27 million bbl/day) of petroleum. Full deployment of H2 automobiles by 2050 could further reduce U.S. petroleum dependence to 43 quads/yr. These projections indicate that substantial steps beyond a transition to H2 light-duty vehicles will be necessary to reduce future U.S. petroleum dependence (and related greenhouse gases) below present levels. A flowchart projecting future U.S. energy flows depicting a complete transition by 2050 to compressed hydrogen light-duty vehicles is attached on the following page (corresponding to scenario 7 in the Appendix). It indicates that producing

  7. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R

  8. The probability of containment failure by direct containment heating in Zion. Supplement 1

    SciTech Connect

    Pilch, M.M.; Allen, M.D.; Stamps, D.W.; Tadios, E.L.; Knudson, D.L.

    1994-12-01

    Supplement 1 of NUREG/CR-6075 brings to closure the DCH issue for the Zion plant. It includes the documentation of the peer review process for NUREG/CR-6075, the assessments of four new splinter scenarios defined in working group meetings, and modeling enhancements recommended by the working groups. In the four new scenarios, consistency of the initial conditions has been implemented by using insights from systems-level codes. SCDAP/RELAP5 was used to analyze three short-term station blackout cases with Different lead rates. In all three case, the hot leg or surge line failed well before the lower head and thus the primary system depressurized to a point where DCH was no longer considered a threat. However, these calculations were continued to lower head failure in order to gain insights that were useful in establishing the initial and boundary conditions. The most useful insights are that the RCS pressure is-low at vessel breach metallic blockages in the core region do not melt and relocate into the lower plenum, and melting of upper plenum steel is correlated with hot leg failure. THE SCDAP/RELAP output was used as input to CONTAIN to assess the containment conditions at vessel breach. The containment-side conditions predicted by CONTAIN are similar to those originally specified in NUREG/CR-6075.

  9. Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry LDRD 13-0144 Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Mitchell, Scott A.; Ebeida, Mohamed Salah; Romero, Vicente J.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Rushdi, Ahmad A.; Abdelkader, Ahmad

    2015-09-01

    This SAND report summarizes our work on the Sandia National Laboratory LDRD project titled "Efficient Probability of Failure Calculations for QMU using Computational Geometry" which was project #165617 and proposal #13-0144. This report merely summarizes our work. Those interested in the technical details are encouraged to read the full published results, and contact the report authors for the status of the software and follow-on projects.

  10. SALTSTONE DISPOSAL FACILITY: DETERMINATION OF THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM WATER TABLE ELEVATION

    SciTech Connect

    Hiergesell, R

    2005-04-01

    A coverage depicting the configuration of the probable maximum water table elevation in the vicinity of the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) was developed to support the Saltstone program. This coverage is needed to support the construction of saltstone vaults to assure that they remain above the maximum elevation of the water table during the Performance Assessment (PA) period of compliance. A previous investigation to calculate the historical high water table beneath the SDF (Cook, 1983) was built upon to incorporate new data that has since become available to refine that estimate and develop a coverage that could be extended to the perennial streams adjacent to the SDF. This investigation incorporated the method used in the Cook, 1983 report to develop an estimate of the probable maximum water table for a group of wells that either existed at one time at or near the SDF or which currently exist. Estimates of the probable maximum water table at these wells were used to construct 2D contour lines depicting this surface beneath the SDF and extend them to the nearby hydrologic boundaries at the perennial streams adjacent to the SDF. Although certain measures were implemented to assure that the contour lines depict a surface above which the water table will not rise, the exact elevation of this surface cannot be known with complete certainty. It is therefore recommended that the construction of saltstone vaults incorporate a vertical buffer of at least 5-feet between the base of the vaults and the depicted probable maximum water table elevation. This should provide assurance that the water table under the wet extreme climatic condition will never rise to intercept the base of a vault.

  11. Coupled escape probability for an asymmetric spherical case: Modeling optically thick comets

    SciTech Connect

    Gersch, Alan M.; A'Hearn, Michael F.

    2014-05-20

    We have adapted Coupled Escape Probability, a new exact method of solving radiative transfer problems, for use in asymmetrical spherical situations. Our model is intended specifically for use in modeling optically thick cometary comae, although not limited to such use. This method enables the accurate modeling of comets' spectra even in the potentially optically thick regions nearest the nucleus, such as those seen in Deep Impact observations of 9P/Tempel 1 and EPOXI observations of 103P/Hartley 2.

  12. Probable new type of reaction mechanism: Double. cap alpha. direct transfer process

    SciTech Connect

    Xu Shu-wei; Wu Guo-hua; Miao Rong-zhi; Han Fei

    1983-10-01

    It is assumed that /sup 8/Be consists of two ..cap alpha.. particles which are close to each other in configuration space. A spectroscopic density of /sup 8/Be cluster in the residue nuclei is then obtained, which is proportional to the square of the preformation probability of ..cap alpha.. particle at nuclear surface. Using the improved method of parametrization of EFR-DWBA overlap integral,/sup 1//sup en-dash//sup 2/ we calculate the double differential energy spectra and angular distributions of ..cap alpha.. particles for the reactions /sup 209/Bi (/sup 12/C, ..cap alpha..) /sup 217/Fr and extract the preformation probability of ..cap alpha.. particle at the surface of /sup 217/Fr nuclei from fitting the experimental data. The agreement within the range of calculation error between the preformation probabilities extracted from transfer reactions and ..cap alpha.. decay suggests that the reaction /sup 209/Bi(/sup 12/C, ..cap alpha..) /sup 217/Fr may be explained as a double ..cap alpha.. direct transfer process.

  13. Comment on “Measurement of two- and three-nucleon short-range correlation probabilities in nuclei”

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Higinbotham, Douglas W.; Hen, Or

    2015-04-24

    Comment on 'Measurement of 2- and 3-nucleon short range correlation probabilities in nuclei' shows how the reported three-nucleon plateau was likely due to resolution effects.

  14. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  15. Life cycle assessment and residue leaching: The importance of parameter, scenario and leaching data selection

    SciTech Connect

    Allegrini, E.; Butera, S.; Kosson, D.S.; Van Zomeren, A.; Van der Sloot, H.A.; Astrup, T.F.

    2015-04-15

    Highlights: • Relevance of metal leaching in waste management system LCAs was assessed. • Toxic impacts from leaching could not be disregarded. • Uncertainty of toxicity, due to background activities, determines LCA outcomes. • Parameters such as pH and L/S affect LCA results. • Data modelling consistency and coverage within an LCA are crucial. - Abstract: Residues from industrial processes and waste management systems (WMSs) have been increasingly reutilised, leading to landfilling rate reductions and the optimisation of mineral resource utilisation in society. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a holistic methodology allowing for the analysis of systems and products and can be applied to waste management systems to identify environmental benefits and critical aspects thereof. From an LCA perspective, residue utilisation provides benefits such as avoiding the production and depletion of primary materials, but it can lead to environmental burdens, due to the potential leaching of toxic substances. In waste LCA studies where residue utilisation is included, leaching has generally been neglected. In this study, municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWI BA) was used as a case study into three LCA scenarios having different system boundaries. The importance of data quality and parameter selection in the overall LCA results was evaluated, and an innovative method to assess metal transport into the environment was applied, in order to determine emissions to the soil and water compartments for use in an LCA. It was found that toxic impacts as a result of leaching were dominant in systems including only MSWI BA utilisation, while leaching appeared negligible in larger scenarios including the entire waste system. However, leaching could not be disregarded a priori, due to large uncertainties characterising other activities in the scenario (e.g. electricity production). Based on the analysis of relevant parameters relative to leaching, and on general results

  16. Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features

    SciTech Connect

    Toole, Gasper L.

    2009-01-01

    Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.

  17. Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Parsons, B.; Hummon, M.; Cochran, J.; Stoltenberg, B.; Batra, P.; Mehta, B.; Patel, D.

    2014-04-01

    India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

  18. A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    DOE/NNSA LANS Company Sensitive - unauthorized release or dissemination prohibited U N C L A S S I F I E D A Method for Evaluating Fire After Earthquake Scenarios for Single Buildings Elizabeth J. Kelly and Raymond N. Tell, LANL U.S. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Workshop Washington, D.C October 25-26, 2011 LA-UR 11-06032 Operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC for NNSA U N C L A S S I F I E D Slide 2 Conservative or Beyond? While conservative assumptions may make an

  19. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  20. Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Arnott, James

    2015-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

  1. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

    SciTech Connect

    Bush, B.; Penev, M.; Melaina, M.; Zuboy, J.

    2015-05-11

    The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

  2. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook Wesley Cole, Trieu Mai, Jeffrey Logan, Daniel Steinberg, James McCall, James Richards, Benjamin Sigrin, and Gian Porro National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-66939 November 2016 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National

  3. The high-β{sub N} hybrid scenario for ITER and FNSF steady-state missions

    SciTech Connect

    Turco, F.; Petty, C. C.; Luce, T. C.; Carlstrom, T. N.; Van Zeeland, M. A.; Ferron, J. R.; Heidbrink, W.; Carpanese, F.; Holcomb, C. T.

    2015-05-15

    New experiments on DIII-D have demonstrated the steady-state potential of the hybrid scenario, with 1 MA of plasma current driven fully non-inductively and β{sub N} up to 3.7 sustained for ∼3 s (∼1.5 current diffusion time, τ{sub R}, in DIII-D), providing the basis for an attractive option for steady-state operation in ITER and FNSF. Excellent confinement is achieved (H{sub 98y2} ∼ 1.6) without performance limiting tearing modes. The hybrid regime overcomes the need for off-axis current drive efficiency, taking advantage of poloidal magnetic flux pumping that is believed to be the result of a saturated 3/2 tearing mode. This allows for efficient current drive close to the axis, without deleterious sawtooth instabilities. In these experiments, the edge surface loop voltage is driven down to zero for >1 τ{sub R} when the poloidal β is increased above 1.9 at a plasma current of 1.0 MA and the ECH power is increased to 3.2 MW. Stationary operation of hybrid plasmas with all on-axis current drive is sustained at pressures slightly above the ideal no-wall limit, while the calculated ideal with-wall MHD limit is β{sub N} ∼ 4–4.5. Off-axis Neutral Beam Injection (NBI) power has been used to broaden the pressure and current profiles in this scenario, seeking to take advantage of higher predicted kink stability limits and lower values of the tearing stability index Δ′, as calculated by the DCON and PEST3 codes. Results based on measured profiles predict ideal limits at β{sub N} > 4.5, 10% higher than the cases with on-axis NBI. A 0-D model, based on the present confinement, β{sub N} and shape values of the DIII-D hybrid scenario, shows that these plasmas are consistent with the ITER 9 MA, Q = 5 mission and the FNSF 6.7 MA scenario with Q = 3.5. With collisionality and edge safety factor values comparable to those envisioned for ITER and FNSF, the high-β{sub N} hybrid represents an attractive high performance option for the steady

  4. Refined scenario of standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis allowing for nonthermal nuclear reactions in the primordial plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Voronchev, Victor T.; Nakao, Yasuyuki; Nakamura, Makoto; Tsukida, Kazuki [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow 119991 (Russian Federation); Department of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Motooka, Fukuoka 819-0395 (Japan); Division of Advanced Plasma Research, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-166 Oaza-Obuchi-Aza-Omotedate, Rokkasho, Kamikita, Aomori 039-3212 (Japan); Department of Applied Quantum Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Kyushu University, Motooka, Fukuoka 819-0395 (Japan)

    2012-11-12

    The standard scenario of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) is generalized to take into account nonthermal nuclear reactions in the primordial plasma. These reactions are naturally triggered in the BBN epoch by fast particles generated in various exoergic processes. It is found that, although such particles can appreciably enhance the rates of some individual reactions, their influence on the whole process of element production is not significant. The nonthermal corrections to element abundances are obtained to be 0.1% ({sup 3}H), -0.03% ({sup 7}Li), and 0.34 %-0.63% (CNO group).

  5. Subsea innovative boosting technologies on deep water scenarios -- Impacts and demands

    SciTech Connect

    Caetano, E.F.; Mendonca, J.E.; Pagot, P.R.; Cotrim, M.L.; Camargo, R.M.T.; Assayag, M.I.

    1995-12-31

    This paper presents the importance of deep water scenario for Brazil, the PETROBRAS Deep and Ultra-Deep Water R and D Program (PROCAP-2000) and the candidate fields for the deployment of subsea innovative boosting technologies (ESPS -- electrical submersible pump in subsea wells, SSS -- subsea separation systems and SBMS -- subsea multiphase flow pumping system) as well as the problems associated with the flow assurance in such conditions. The impact of those innovative systems, their technological stage and remaining demands to make them available for deployment in offshore subsea areas, mainly in giant deepwater fields, are discussed and predicted.

  6. 3.55 keV line in minimal decaying dark matter scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Arcadi, Giorgio; Covi, Laura; Dradi, Federico

    2015-07-20

    We investigate the possibility of reproducing the recently reported 3.55 keV line in some simple decaying dark matter scenarios. In all cases a keV scale decaying DM is coupled with a scalar field charged under SM gauge interactions and thus capable of pair production at the LHC. We will investigate how the demand of a DM lifetime compatible with the observed signal, combined with the requirement of the correct DM relic density through the freeze-in mechanism, impacts the prospects of observation at the LHC of the decays of the scalar field.

  7. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) (Presentation), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) Marc Melaina, Ph.D. Team Lead for Infrastructure Analysis Transportation and Hydrogen Systems Center, NREL H2FAST Team: Brian Bush, Melanie Caton, Jon Duckworth, Dan Getman, Sara Havig, Marc Melaina, Michael Penev HTAC Meeting - April 21-22, 2015 Arlington, Virginia NREL/PR-5400-64138 Overview * Hydrogen Financial Analysis Simulation Tool (H2FAST) * H2FAST is a standard financial accounting framework applied to the DOE's H2A cost analysis models * There

  8. Probability and consequences of a rapid boron dilution sequence in a PWR

    SciTech Connect

    Diamond, D.J.; Kohut, P.; Nourbakhsh, H.; Valtonen, K.; Secker, P.

    1995-11-01

    The reactor restart scenario is one of several beyond-design-basis events in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) which can lead to rapid boron dilution in the core. This in turn can lead to a power excursion and the potential for fuel damage. A probabilistic analysis had been done for this event for a European PWR. The estimated core damage frequency was found to be high partially because of a high frequency for a LOOP and assumptions regarding operator actions. As a result, a program of analysis and experiment was initiated and corrective actions were taken. A system was installed so that the suction of the charging pumps would switch to the highly borated refueling water storage tank (RWST) when there was a trip of the RCPs. This was felt to reduce the estimated core damage frequency to an acceptable level. In the US, this original study prompted the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to issue an information notice to follow work being done in this area and to initiate studies such as the work at BNL reported herein. In order to see if the core damage frequency might be as high in US plants, a probabilistic assessment of this scenario was done for three plants. Two important conservative assumptions in this analysis were that (1) the mixing of the injectant was insignificant and (2) fuel damage occurs when the slug passes through the core. In order to study the first assumption, analysis was carried out for two of the plants using a mixing model. The second assumption was studied by calculating the neutronic response of the core to a slug of deborated water for one of the plants. All three types of analyses are summarized below. More information is available in the original report.

  9. Radiation detection method and system using the sequential probability ratio test

    DOEpatents

    Nelson, Karl E.; Valentine, John D.; Beauchamp, Brock R.

    2007-07-17

    A method and system using the Sequential Probability Ratio Test to enhance the detection of an elevated level of radiation, by determining whether a set of observations are consistent with a specified model within a given bounds of statistical significance. In particular, the SPRT is used in the present invention to maximize the range of detection, by providing processing mechanisms for estimating the dynamic background radiation, adjusting the models to reflect the amount of background knowledge at the current point in time, analyzing the current sample using the models to determine statistical significance, and determining when the sample has returned to the expected background conditions.

  10. Use of the AIC with the EM algorithm: A demonstration of a probability model selection technique

    SciTech Connect

    Glosup, J.G.; Axelrod M.C.

    1994-11-15

    The problem of discriminating between two potential probability models, a Gaussian distribution and a mixture of Gaussian distributions, is considered. The focus of our interest is a case where the models are potentially non-nested and the parameters of the mixture model are estimated through the EM algorithm. The AIC, which is frequently used as a criterion for discriminating between non-nested models, is modified to work with the EM algorithm and is shown to provide a model selection tool for this situation. A particular problem involving an infinite mixture distribution known as Middleton`s Class A model is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of this method.

  11. Dependence in probabilistic modeling, Dempster-Shafer theory, and probability bounds analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Tucker, W. Troy; Zhang, Jianzhong; Ginzburg, Lev; Berleant, Daniel J.; Ferson, Scott; Hajagos, Janos; Nelsen, Roger B.

    2004-10-01

    This report summarizes methods to incorporate information (or lack of information) about inter-variable dependence into risk assessments that use Dempster-Shafer theory or probability bounds analysis to address epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. The report reviews techniques for simulating correlated variates for a given correlation measure and dependence model, computation of bounds on distribution functions under a specified dependence model, formulation of parametric and empirical dependence models, and bounding approaches that can be used when information about the intervariable dependence is incomplete. The report also reviews several of the most pervasive and dangerous myths among risk analysts about dependence in probabilistic models.

  12. Power Outages Update: Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Hurricane Sandy has landed and the Energy Department is working closely to support state and local officials who are responsible for working with utilities.

  13. Survey of Tools for Risk Assessment of Cascading Outages

    SciTech Connect

    Papic, Milorad; Bell, Keith; Chen, Yousu; Dobson, Ian; Fonte, Louis; Haq, Enamul; Hines, Paul; Kirschen, Daniel; Luo, Xiaochuan; Miller, Stephen; Samaan, Nader A.; Vaiman, Marianna; Varghese, Matthew; Zhang, Pei

    2011-10-17

    Cascading failure can cause large blackouts, and a variety of methods are emerging to study this challenging topic. In parts 1 and 2 of this paper, the IEEE task force on cascading failure seeks to consolidate and review the progress of the field towards methods and tools of assessing the risk of cascading failure. Part 2 summarizes and discusses the state of the art in the available cascading failure modeling tools. The discussion integrates industry and research perspectives from a variety of institutions. Strengths, weaknesses, and gaps in current approaches are indicated.

  14. Microsoft Word - 112706 Final Outage Letter PUBLIC.doc

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INFORMATION REMOVED FOR PRIVILEGED TREATMENT November 27, 2006 Lawrence Mansueti Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy Rm. 8H-033 1000 Independence Avenue Washington, D.C. 20585 Re: Potomac River Generating Station Department of Energy Case No. EO-05-01 Dear Mr. Mansueti: Potomac Electric Power Company ("Pepco"), on behalf of itself and PJM Interconnection, L.L.C. ("PJM"), is providing you with

  15. Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for October 2010...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    2011 November 2010 Energy Information Administration Office of Petroleum, Gas, and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by...

  16. Refinery Outages: Description and Potential Impact on Petroleum Product Prices

    Reports and Publications

    2007-01-01

    This report responds to a July 13, 2006 request from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested that the Energy Information Administration conduct a study of the impact that refinery shutdowns have had on the price of oil and gasoline.

  17. Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for October 2010...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    average values for 2002-2009 excluding months in 2005, 2006, and 2008 affected by hurricanes & refinery closures. Similarly, typical historical values are average planned...

  18. Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for March 2011...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    fluctuating between 70 and 85 per barrel, but by the beginning of 2011, Brent crude oil was at 95 per barrel. Recent instability in the Middle East and North Africa added...

  19. HPSS Outage Tue Mar 19 - Fri Mar 22

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    of the HPSS client software tools hsi and htar. Note that if you use a "regular" ftp client, your current client will work with the new version of the HPSS server software....

  20. Market Assessment of Refinery Outages Planned for March 2011...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    n s u m p tio n 20.68 19.50 18.77 19.13 19.28 0.8% Note: Gasoline consumption includes ethanol. Source: 2007-2010, EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly; 2011, February 2011 Short Term...

  1. Economic Benefits of Increasing Electric Grid Resilience to Weather Outages

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    In June 2011, President Obama released A Policy Framework for the 21st Century Grid which set out a four-pillared strategy for modernizing the electric grid. The initiative directed billions of...

  2. Preparing for a Power Outage | Department of Energy

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Allison Lantero Allison Lantero Digital Content Specialist, Office of Public Affairs ... Keep your car tank at least half full. Gas stations rely on electricity to power their pumps. ...

  3. Analysis of BIOMOVS II Uranium Mill Tailings scenario 1.07 with the RESRAD computer code

    SciTech Connect

    Gnanapragasam, E.K.; Yu, C.

    1997-08-01

    The residual radioactive material guidelines (RESRAD) computer code developed at Argonne National Laboratory was selected for participation in the model intercomparison test scenario, version 1.07, conducted by the Uranium Mill Tailings Working Group in the second phase of the international Biospheric Model Validation Study. The RESRAD code was enhanced to provide an output attributing radiological dose to the nuclide at the point of exposure, in addition to the existing output attributing radiological dose to the nuclide in the contaminated zone. A conceptual model to account for off-site accumulation following atmospheric deposition was developed and showed the importance of considering this process for this off-site scenario. The RESRAD predictions for the atmospheric release compared well with most of the other models. The peak and steady-state doses and concentrations predicted by RESRAD for the groundwater release also agreed well with most of the other models participating in the study; however, the RESRAD plots shows a later breakthrough time and sharp changes compared with the plots of the predictions of other models. These differences were due to differences in the formulation for the retardation factor and to not considering the effects of longitudinal dispersion.

  4. The anti-glitch of magnetar 1E 2259+586 in the wind braking scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Tong, H.

    2014-04-01

    The anti-glitch of magnetar 1E 2259+586 is analyzed theoretically. An enhanced particle wind during the observational interval takes away additional rotational energy of the neutron star, which will result in a net spin-down of the magnetar, i.e., an anti-glitch. In the wind braking scenario of the anti-glitch, there are several predictions: (1) a radiative event will always accompany the anti-glitch, (2) there will be a decrease/variation of the braking index after the anti-glitch, and (3) the anti-glitch is just a period of enhanced spin-down. If there are enough timing observations, a period of enhanced spin-down is expected instead of an anti-glitch. Applications to previous timing events of SGR 1900+14 and PSR J1846–0258 are also included. It is shown that current timing events of 1E 2259+586, SGR 1900+14, and PSR J1846–0258 can be understood safely in the wind braking model. The enhanced spin-down and absence of an anti-glitch before the giant flare of SGR 1806–20 is consistent with the wind braking scenario.

  5. Viability of the matter bounce scenario in Loop Quantum Cosmology from BICEP2 last data

    SciTech Connect

    De Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume E-mail: jaume.amoros@upc.edu

    2014-08-01

    The CMB map provided by the Planck project constrains the value of the ratio of tensor-to-scalar perturbations, namely r, to be smaller than 0.11 (95 % CL). This bound rules out the simplest models of inflation. However, recent data from BICEP2 is in strong tension with this constrain, as it finds a value r=0.20{sup +0.07}{sub -0.05} with 0r= disfavored at 7.0 σ, which allows these simplest inflationary models to survive. The remarkable fact is that, even though the BICEP2 experiment was conceived to search for evidence of inflation, its experimental data matches correctly theoretical results coming from the matter bounce scenario (the alternative model to the inflationary paradigm). More precisely, most bouncing cosmologies do not pass Planck's constrains due to the smallness of the value of the tensor/scalar ratio r≤ 0.11, but with new BICEP2 data some of them fit well with experimental data. This is the case with the matter bounce scenario in the teleparallel version of Loop Quantum Cosmology.

  6. Non-Kyoto Radiative Forcing in Long-Run Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Rose, Steven K.; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; Stefler, Jessica; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-27

    Climate policies designed to achieve climate change objectives must consider radiative forcing from the Kyoto greenhouse gas, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone. Net positive forcing leads to global average temperature increases. Modeling of non-Kyoto forcing is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. Five of the nineteen models in the EMF-27 Study model both Kyoto and non-Kyoto forcing. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within these integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking significant positive forcing in reference non-climate policy projections. There are however large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing, with differences stemming from differences in relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions and fundamental differences in modeling structure and assumptions. Air pollution and non-Kyoto forcing decline in the climate policy scenarios. However, non-Kyoto forcing appears to be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited. Overall, there is substantial uncertainty related to non-Kyoto forcing that must be considered.

  7. Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

    2016-04-28

    Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

  8. The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang

    2007-08-01

    While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.

  9. Phenomenology of the minimal inflation scenario: inflationary trajectories and particle production

    SciTech Connect

    Álvarez-Gaumé, Luis; Gómez, César

    2012-03-01

    We discuss the phenomenology of the minimal inflation scenario. We concentrate on two aspects: inflationary trajectories and particle production. Our findings can be summarized in two main results: first, that inflationary trayectories that are very flat and provide enough number of e-foldings are natural in the scenario without fine tunning. We present a general formalism to identify attractors in multi-field inflation regardless of trajectories fulfilling the slow-roll conditions. We then explore particle production in the model and show how the inflaton naturally transmutes into a dark matter particle. One interesting feature of our model is that it provides a novel mechanism to generate particles and entropy in the universe: the filling of the Fermi sphere up to a given momentum p{sub F} due to the sea of goldstinos that are an important part of the matter generated after inflation. With this mechanism in hand we predict that the gravitino should have a mass of > 100−1000 TeV. Another interesting feature of our model is that the predicted level of gravity waves is r = 0.1−0.001, which is in the range of detectability from Planck and upcoming CMB polarization experiments.

  10. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1996-05-01

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems with uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. Their approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The codes have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  11. Hydropower generation management under uncertainty via scenario analysis and parallel computation

    SciTech Connect

    Escudero, L.F.; Garcia, C.; Fuente, J.L. de la; Prieto, F.J.

    1995-12-31

    The authors present a modeling framework for the robust solution of hydroelectric power management problems and uncertainty in the values of the water inflows and outflows. A deterministic treatment of the problem provides unsatisfactory results, except for very short time horizons. The authors describe a model based on scenario analysis that allows a satisfactory treatment of uncertainty in the model data for medium and long-term planning problems. This approach results in a huge model with a network submodel per scenario plus coupling constraints. The size of the problem and the structure of the constraints are adequate for the use of decomposition techniques and parallel computation tools. The authors present computational results for both sequential and parallel implementation versions of the codes, running on a cluster of workstations. The code have been tested on data obtained from the reservoir network of Iberdrola, a power utility owning 50% of the total installed hydroelectric capacity of Spain, and generating 40% of the total energy demand.

  12. Regional socioeconomic impacts of alternative energy scenarios for the Ohio River Basin Energy Study region

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, S.I.; Graham, A.S.

    1980-10-01

    The report was prepared as part of the Ohio River Basin Energy Study (ORBES), a multidisciplinary policy research program. It describes projected socioeconomic impacts of the ORBES energy futures, defined as scenarios, on the region. The region consists of all of Kentucky, most of West Virginia, and substantial portions of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The major impact areas considered are employment impacts of coal-fired power plants and of coal mining; population impacts of coal-fired power plants and coal mining; and public service impacts (e.g., water and sewer systems). The analyses of power plant impacts was aided by use of the ORBES Labor Impact Model (OLIM), which projects total county employment over time by scenario. For coal-mining employment impacts, a set of employment multipliers was developed using existing data to enable county- and regional-level employment changes. The mining employment data also are used in conjunction with other forecasts to look at general migration trends within the study region.

  13. Scenario Analysis of Peak Demand Savings for Commercial Buildings with Thermal Mass in California

    SciTech Connect

    Yin, Rongxin; Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Parrish, Kristen

    2010-05-14

    This paper reports on the potential impact of demand response (DR) strategies in commercial buildings in California based on the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), which uses EnergyPlus simulation prototypes for office and retail buildings. The study describes the potential impact of building size, thermal mass, climate, and DR strategies on demand savings in commercial buildings. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate how these factors influence the demand shift and shed during the peak period. The whole-building peak demand of a commercial building with high thermal mass in a hot climate zone can be reduced by 30percent using an optimized demand response strategy. Results are summarized for various simulation scenarios designed to help owners and managers understand the potential savings for demand response deployment. Simulated demand savings under various scenarios were compared to field-measured data in numerous climate zones, allowing calibration of the prototype models. The simulation results are compared to the peak demand data from the Commercial End-Use Survey for commercial buildings in California. On the economic side, a set of electricity rates are used to evaluate the impact of the DR strategies on economic savings for different thermal mass and climate conditions. Our comparison of recent simulation to field test results provides an understanding of the DR potential in commercial buildings.

  14. Implementation Scenarios for Electric Vehicle Roadway Wireless Power Transfer; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Meintz, A.; Markel, T.; Burton, E.; Wang, L.; Gonder, J.; Brooker, A.

    2015-06-05

    Analysis has been performed on the Transportation Secure Data Center (TSDC) warehouse of collected GPS second-by-second driving profile data of vehicles in the Atlanta, Chicago, Fresno, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Francisco Consolidated Statistical Areas (CSAs) to understand in-motion wireless power transfer introduction scenarios. In this work it has been shown that electrification of 1% of road miles could reduce fuel use by 25% for Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) in these CSAs. This analysis of strategically located infrastructure offers a promising approach to reduced fuel consumption; however, even the most promising 1% of road miles determined by these seven analysis scenarios still represent an impressive 2,700 miles of roadway to electrify. Therefore to mitigate the infrastructure capital costs, integration of the grid-tied power electronics in the Wireless Power Transfer (WPT) system at the DC-link to photovoltaic and/or battery storage is suggested. The integration of these resources would allow for the hardware to provide additional revenue through grid services at times of low traffic volumes and conversely at time of high traffic volumes these resources could reduce the peak demand that the WPT system would otherwise add to the grid.

  15. Modeling Sensitivities to the 20% Wind Scenario Report with the WinDS Model

    SciTech Connect

    Blair, N.; Hand, M.; Short, W.; Sullivan, P.

    2008-06-01

    In May 2008, DOE published '20% Wind Energy by 2030', a report which describes the costs and benefits of producing 20% of the nation's projected electricity demand in 2030 from wind technology. The total electricity system cost resulting from this scenario was modestly higher than a scenario in which no additional wind was installed after 2006. NREL's Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model was used to support this analysis. With its 358 regions, explicit treatment of transmission expansion, onshore siting considerations, shallow- and deep-water wind resources, 2030 outlook, explicit financing assumptions, endogenous learning, and stochastic treatment of wind resource variability, WinDS is unique in the level of detail it can bring to this analysis. For the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 analysis, the group chose various model structures (such as the ability to wheel power within an interconnect), and the wind industry agreed on a variety of model inputs (such as the cost of transmission or new wind turbines). For this paper, the analysis examined the sensitivity of the results to variations in those input values and model structure choices. These included wind cost and performance improvements over time, seasonal/diurnal wind resource variations, transmission access and costs, siting costs, conventional fuel cost trajectories, and conventional capital costs.

  16. A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Wei; Liu, Cheng; Thomas, Neil; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Han, Lee

    2015-01-01

    Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. For left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.

  17. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Sips, A. C. C.; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-15

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ∼10, while producing 500 MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ∼ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devices with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4 MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q{sub 95} ∼ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at n{sub e}/n{sub GW} ∼ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H{sub 98(y,2)} ∼ 1.0 only for β{sub N} = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (l{sub i}(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to n{sub e}/n{sub GW} ∼ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ∼ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario preparation

  18. Progress in preparing scenarios for operation of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Sips, A. C. C.; European Commission, Brussels; Giruzzi, G.; Ide, S.; Kessel, C.; Luce, T. C.; Snipes, J. A.; Stober, J. K.

    2015-02-01

    The development of operating scenarios is one of the key issues in the research for ITER which aims to achieve a fusion gain (Q) of ~10, while producing 500MW of fusion power for ≥300 s. The ITER Research plan proposes a success oriented schedule starting in hydrogen and helium, to be followed by a nuclear operation phase with a rapid development towards Q ~ 10 in deuterium/tritium. The Integrated Operation Scenarios Topical Group of the International Tokamak Physics Activity initiates joint activities among worldwide institutions and experiments to prepare ITER operation. Plasma formation studies report robust plasma breakdown in devices with metal walls over a wide range of conditions, while other experiments use an inclined EC launch angle at plasma formation to mimic the conditions in ITER. Simulations of the plasma burn-through predict that at least 4MW of Electron Cyclotron heating (EC) assist would be required in ITER. For H-modes at q₉₅~ 3, many experiments have demonstrated operation with scaled parameters for the ITER baseline scenario at ne/nGW ~ 0.85. Most experiments, however, obtain stable discharges at H₉₈(y,2) ~ 1.0 only for bN = 2.0–2.2. For the rampup in ITER, early X-point formation is recommended, allowing auxiliary heating to reduce the flux consumption. A range of plasma inductance (li(3)) can be obtained from 0.65 to 1.0, with the lowest values obtained in H-mode operation. For the rampdown, the plasma should stay diverted maintaining H-mode together with a reduction of the elongation from 1.85 to 1.4. Simulations show that the proposed rampup and rampdown schemes developed since 2007 are compatible with the present ITER design for the poloidal field coils. At 13–15 MA and densities down to ne/nGW ~ 0.5, long pulse operation (>1000 s) in ITER is possible at Q ~ 5, useful to provide neutron fluence for Test Blanket Module assessments. ITER scenario

  19. High-energy neutrino signals from the Sun in dark matter scenarios with internal bremsstrahlung

    SciTech Connect

    Ibarra, Alejandro; Totzauer, Maximilian; Wild, Sebastian E-mail: maximilian.totzauer@mytum.de

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the prospects to observe a high energy neutrino signal from dark matter annihilations in the Sun in scenarios where the dark matter is a Majorana fermion that couples to a quark and a colored scalar via a Yukawa coupling. In this minimal scenario, the dark matter capture and annihilation in the Sun can be studied in a single framework. We find that, for small and moderate mass splitting between the dark matter and the colored scalar, the two-to-three annihilation q q-bar g plays a central role in the calculation of the number of captured dark matter particles. On the other hand, the two-to-three annihilation into q q-bar Z gives, despite its small branching fraction, the largest contribution to the neutrino flux at the Earth at the highest energies. We calculate the limits on the model parameters using IceCube observations of the Sun and we discuss their interplay with the requirement of equilibrium of captures and annihilations in the Sun and with the requirement of thermal dark matter production. We also compare the limits from IceCube to the limits from direct detection, antiproton measurements and collider searches.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  1. Probability density function characterization for aggregated large-scale wind power based on Weibull mixtures

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio; Bueso, Maria C.; Kessler, Mathieu; Martin-Martinez, Sergio; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Molina-Garcia, Angel

    2016-02-02

    Here, the Weibull probability distribution has been widely applied to characterize wind speeds for wind energy resources. Wind power generation modeling is different, however, due in particular to power curve limitations, wind turbine control methods, and transmission system operation requirements. These differences are even greater for aggregated wind power generation in power systems with high wind penetration. Consequently, models based on one-Weibull component can provide poor characterizations for aggregated wind power generation. With this aim, the present paper focuses on discussing Weibull mixtures to characterize the probability density function (PDF) for aggregated wind power generation. PDFs of wind power datamore » are firstly classified attending to hourly and seasonal patterns. The selection of the number of components in the mixture is analyzed through two well-known different criteria: the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Finally, the optimal number of Weibull components for maximum likelihood is explored for the defined patterns, including the estimated weight, scale, and shape parameters. Results show that multi-Weibull models are more suitable to characterize aggregated wind power data due to the impact of distributed generation, variety of wind speed values and wind power curtailment.« less

  2. A formalism to generate probability distributions for performance-assessment modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Kaplan, P.G.

    1990-12-31

    A formalism is presented for generating probability distributions of parameters used in performance-assessment modeling. The formalism is used when data are either sparse or nonexistent. The appropriate distribution is a function of the known or estimated constraints and is chosen to maximize a quantity known as Shannon`s informational entropy. The formalism is applied to a parameter used in performance-assessment modeling. The functional form of the model that defines the parameter, data from the actual field site, and natural analog data are analyzed to estimate the constraints. A beta probability distribution of the example parameter is generated after finding four constraints. As an example of how the formalism is applied to the site characterization studies of Yucca Mountain, the distribution is generated for an input parameter in a performance-assessment model currently used to estimate compliance with disposal of high-level radioactive waste in geologic repositories, 10 CFR 60.113(a)(2), commonly known as the ground water travel time criterion. 8 refs., 2 figs.

  3. Strong lensing probability in TeVeS (tensor-vector-scalar) theory

    SciTech Connect

    Chen Daming

    2008-01-15

    We recalculate the strong lensing probability as a function of the image separation in TeVeS (tensor-vector-scalar) cosmology, which is a relativistic version of MOND (MOdified Newtonian Dynamics). The lens is modeled by the Hernquist profile. We assume an open cosmology with {Omega}{sub b} = 0.04 and {Omega}{sub {Lambda}} = 0.5 and three different kinds of interpolating functions. Two different galaxy stellar mass functions (GSMF) are adopted: PHJ (Panter, Heavens and Jimenez 2004 Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 355 764) determined from SDSS data release 1 and Fontana (Fontana et al 2006 Astron. Astrophys. 459 745) from GOODS-MUSIC catalog. We compare our results with both the predicted probabilities for lenses from singular isothermal sphere galaxy halos in LCDM (Lambda cold dark matter) with a Schechter-fit velocity function, and the observational results for the well defined combined sample of the Cosmic Lens All-Sky Survey (CLASS) and Jodrell Bank/Very Large Array Astrometric Survey (JVAS). It turns out that the interpolating function {mu}(x) = x/(1+x) combined with Fontana GSMF matches the results from CLASS/JVAS quite well.

  4. Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, Stephen

    2013-09-09

    This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

  5. What is the probability that direct detection experiments have observed dark matter?

    SciTech Connect

    Bozorgnia, Nassim; Schwetz, Thomas E-mail: schwetz@fysik.su.se

    2014-12-01

    In Dark Matter direct detection we are facing the situation of some experiments reporting positive signals which are in conflict with limits from other experiments. Such conclusions are subject to large uncertainties introduced by the poorly known local Dark Matter distribution. We present a method to calculate an upper bound on the joint probability of obtaining the outcome of two potentially conflicting experiments under the assumption that the Dark Matter hypothesis is correct, but completely independent of assumptions about the Dark Matter distribution. In this way we can quantify the compatibility of two experiments in an astrophysics independent way. We illustrate our method by testing the compatibility of the hints reported by DAMA and CDMS-Si with the limits from the LUX and SuperCDMS experiments. The method does not require Monte Carlo simulations but is mostly based on using Poisson statistics. In order to deal with signals of few events we introduce the so-called ''signal length'' to take into account energy information. The signal length method provides a simple way to calculate the probability to obtain a given experimental outcome under a specified Dark Matter and background hypothesis.

  6. Determination of laser damage initiation probability and growth on fused silica scratches

    SciTech Connect

    Norton, M A; Carr, C W; Cross, D A; Negres, R A; Bude, J D; Steele, W A; Monticelli, M V; Suratwala, T I

    2010-10-26

    Current methods for the manufacture of optical components inevitably leaves a variety of sub-surface imperfections including scratches of varying lengths and widths on even the finest finishes. It has recently been determined that these finishing imperfections are responsible for the majority of laser-induced damage for fluences typically used in ICF class lasers. We have developed methods of engineering subscale parts with a distribution of scratches mimicking those found on full scale fused silica parts. This much higher density of scratches provides a platform to measure low damage initiation probabilities sufficient to describe damage on large scale optics. In this work, damage probability per unit scratch length was characterized as a function of initial scratch width and post fabrication processing including acid-based etch mitigation processes. The susceptibility of damage initiation density along scratches was found to be strongly affected by the post etching material removal and initial scratch width. We have developed an automated processing procedure to document the damage initiations per width and per length of theses scratches. We show here how these tools can be employed to provide predictions of the performance of full size optics in laser systems operating at 351 nm. In addition we use these tools to measure the growth rate of a damage site initiated along a scratch and compare this to the growth measured on an isolated damage site.

  7. Understanding the distinctively skewed and heavy tailed character of atmospheric and oceanic probability distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Sardeshmukh, Prashant D.

    2015-03-15

    The probability distributions of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are generally skewed and heavy-tailed. We argue that their distinctive departures from Gaussianity arise fundamentally from the fact that in a quadratically nonlinear system with a quadratic invariant, the coupling coefficients between system components are not constant but depend linearly on the system state in a distinctive way. In particular, the skewness arises from a tendency of the system trajectory to linger near states of weak coupling. We show that the salient features of the observed non-Gaussianity can be captured in the simplest such nonlinear 2-component system. If the system is stochastically forced and linearly damped, with one component damped much more strongly than the other, then the strongly damped fast component becomes effectively decoupled from the weakly damped slow component, and its impact on the slow component can be approximated as a stochastic noise forcing plus an augmented nonlinear damping. In the limit of large time-scale separation, the nonlinear augmentation of the damping becomes small, and the noise forcing can be approximated as an additive noise plus a correlated additive and multiplicative noise (CAM noise) forcing. Much of the diversity of observed large-scale atmospheric and oceanic probability distributions can be interpreted in this minimal framework.

  8. Measuring and Modeling Fault Density for Plume-Fault Encounter Probability Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Jordan, P.D.; Oldenburg, C.M.; Nicot, J.-P.

    2011-05-15

    Emission of carbon dioxide from fossil-fueled power generation stations contributes to global climate change. Storage of this carbon dioxide within the pores of geologic strata (geologic carbon storage) is one approach to mitigating the climate change that would otherwise occur. The large storage volume needed for this mitigation requires injection into brine-filled pore space in reservoir strata overlain by cap rocks. One of the main concerns of storage in such rocks is leakage via faults. In the early stages of site selection, site-specific fault coverages are often not available. This necessitates a method for using available fault data to develop an estimate of the likelihood of injected carbon dioxide encountering and migrating up a fault, primarily due to buoyancy. Fault population statistics provide one of the main inputs to calculate the encounter probability. Previous fault population statistics work is shown to be applicable to areal fault density statistics. This result is applied to a case study in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin with the result that the probability of a carbon dioxide plume from a previously planned injection had a 3% chance of encountering a fully seal offsetting fault.

  9. Microsoft Word - Hurricane Outlook.doc

    Annual Energy Outlook

    probability of experiencing seasonal outages similar to 2005 when Hurricanes Katrina ... capacity was shut down either because of direct damage or interruption of power supplies. ...

  10. Microsoft Word - Hurricane Outlook.docx

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    results indicate an approximately 40-percent probability of offshore crude oil or natural gas production experiencing outages during the upcoming hurricane season that are equal ...

  11. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the leak from a railcar/tank trailer at the 204-ar waste unloading facility

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Leak from Railcar/Tank Trailer. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  12. Theoretical analysis of integral neutron transport equation using collision probability method with quadratic flux approach

    SciTech Connect

    Shafii, Mohammad Ali Meidianti, Rahma Wildian, Fitriyani, Dian; Tongkukut, Seni H. J.; Arkundato, Artoto

    2014-09-30

    Theoretical analysis of integral neutron transport equation using collision probability (CP) method with quadratic flux approach has been carried out. In general, the solution of the neutron transport using the CP method is performed with the flat flux approach. In this research, the CP method is implemented in the cylindrical nuclear fuel cell with the spatial of mesh being conducted into non flat flux approach. It means that the neutron flux at any point in the nuclear fuel cell are considered different each other followed the distribution pattern of quadratic flux. The result is presented here in the form of quadratic flux that is better understanding of the real condition in the cell calculation and as a starting point to be applied in computational calculation.

  13. Comparing the reliability of related populations with the probability of agreement

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Stevens, Nathaniel T.; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.

    2016-07-26

    Combining information from different populations to improve precision, simplify future predictions, or improve underlying understanding of relationships can be advantageous when considering the reliability of several related sets of systems. Using the probability of agreement to help quantify the similarities of populations can help to give a realistic assessment of whether the systems have reliability that are sufficiently similar for practical purposes to be treated as a homogeneous population. In addition, the new method is described and illustrated with an example involving two generations of a complex system where the reliability is modeled using either a logistic or probit regressionmore » model. Note that supplementary materials including code, datasets, and added discussion are available online.« less

  14. Direct comparison of defect ensembles extracted from damage probability and raster scan measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Batavičiūtė, G. Ščiuka, M.; Melninkaitis, A.

    2015-09-14

    The presented study addresses the characterization of nanometer sized defects acting as damage precursors in nanosecond laser pulse duration regime. Two approaches are used to extract distributions of localized damage precursors, namely, damage probability and damage density measurements. Testing is performed on uncoated and SiO{sub 2} monolayer film deposited fused silica substrate exposed with pulsed UV irradiation (355 nm, 4.8 ns). Then, a direct comparison of damage precursor ensembles obtained from both methods is carried out. Our analysis indicates apparent differences between both methods that are discussed in detail. Contamination by ablation products is identified as one of the key factors that influence damage density measurements.

  15. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  16. Spin dynamics and implications for superconductivity: Some problems with the d-wave scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Levin, K.; Zha, Y.; Radtke, R.J.; Si, Q.; Norman, M.R.; Schuttler, H.B.

    1993-09-01

    We review the spin dynamics of the normal state of the cuprates with special emphasis on neutron data in both the YBa{sub 2}Cu{sub 3}O{sub 7-{delta}} and La{sub 2-x}Sr{sub x}CuO{sub 4} systems. When realistic models of the Fermi surface shapes are incorporated, along with a moderate degree of spin fluctuations, we find good semi-quantiative agreement with experiment for both cuprates. Building on the success of this Fermi-liquid-based scheme, we explore the implications for d-wave pairing from a number of vantage points. We conclude that our present experimental and theoretical understanding is inadequate to confirm or refute the d-wave scenario.

  17. Beam plasma electromagnetic instabilities in a smooth density gradient: Application to the fast ignition scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Bret, A.; Deutsch, C.

    2005-10-01

    The integrated growth rate of various relativistic beam/plasma instabilities in a weakly varying plasma density gradient is calculated using a WKB-like approximation. It is proven that such an assumption can be made in fast ignition scenario conditions. The formalism is applied to the two-stream, the filamentation, and the two-stream/filamentation instabilities, the latter instability being a mixture of the former two, and is the fastest growing one. The results are restricted to collisionless plasmas and nonrelativistic beam and plasma temperatures. Filamentation instability is reduced by the density gradient and eventually does not develop in the core, whereas two-stream and two-stream/filamentation instabilities should saturate even before they feel the gradient. Various effects connected to the density gradient are discussed. It is found they should be negligible as long as these later instabilities remain in their respective linear regime.

  18. Failure Scenarios and Mitigations and for the BaBar Superconducting Solenoid

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, EunJoo; Candia, A.; Craddock, W.W.; Racine, M.; Weisend, J.G., II; /SLAC

    2005-12-13

    The cryogenic department at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center is responsible for the operation, troubleshooting, and upgrade of the 1.5 Tesla superconducting solenoid detector for the BABAR B-factory experiment. Events that disable the detector are rare but significantly impact the availability of the detector for physics research. As a result, a number of systems and procedures have been developed over time to minimize the downtime of the detector, for example improved control systems, improved and automatic backup systems, and spares for all major components. Together they can prevent or mitigate many of the failures experienced by the utilities, mechanical systems, controls and instrumentation. In this paper we describe various failure scenarios, their effect on the detector, and the modifications made to mitigate the effects of the failure. As a result of these modifications the reliability of the detector has increased significantly with only 3 shutdowns of the detector due to cryogenics systems over the last 2 years.

  19. An interaction scenario of the galaxy pair NGC 3893/96 (KPG 302): A single passage?

    SciTech Connect

    Gabbasov, R. F.; Rosado, M.; Klapp, J.

    2014-05-20

    Using the data obtained previously from Fabry-Perot interferometry, we study the orbital characteristics of the interacting pair of galaxies KPG 302 with the aim to estimate a possible interaction history, the conditions necessary for the spiral arm formation, and initial satellite mass. We found by performing N-body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of the interaction that a single passage can produce a grand design spiral pattern in less than 1 Gyr. Although we reproduce most of the features with the single passage, the required satellite to host mass ratio should be ∼1:5, which is not confirmed by the dynamical mass estimate made from the measured rotation curve. We conclude that a more realistic interaction scenario would require several passages in order to explain the mass ratio discrepancy.

  20. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a Chicago nuclear detonation scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-09-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kt detonation in Chicago. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at selected exemplary points. For many Chicago neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.