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Sample records for nymex confidence interval

  1. NYMEX Futures Prices

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    NYMEX Futures Prices (Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel, All Others in Dollars per Gallon) Period: Daily Weekly Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Product/ Contract 11/07/16 11/08/16 11/09/16 11/10/16 11/14/16 11/15/16 View History Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma) Contract 1 44.89 44.98 45.27 44.66 43.32 45.81 1983-2016 Contract 2 45.47 45.61 45.94 45.36 43.94 46.39 1985-2016 Contract 3 46.10

  2. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  3. Presentation title: This can be up to 2 lines

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    ... NYMEX futures price 95% NYMEX futures upper and lower confidence interval forecast ... fundamental balances long-term Heating Fuels ... for distillate fuel is growing - Diesel ...

  4. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_past_hh.ppt [Compatibility...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2015 - June 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January ...

  5. Other facts

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 - December 2008 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, ...

  6. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  7. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  8. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  9. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  10. Prediction of Oil Production With Confidence Intervals*

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ... spray Target studies for Muon Collider Pellet injection studies for ITER Oil reservoirgroundwater simulation studies 56 Conclusions: Turbulent mixing A ...

  11. AEO2014 - Legislation and Regulations articles - U.S. Energy Information

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Chart Gallery for November 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 West Texas intermediate (WTI) crude oil price dollars per barrel Historical spot price STEO price forecast NYMEX futures price 95% NYMEX futures upper confidence interval 95% NYMEX futures lower confidence interval Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2016. Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending

  12. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  13. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  14. Other facts

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals January 2007 - December 2008 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 2 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2007 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 3 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2007 $0 $50

  15. Waste Confidence Discussion

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Waste Confidence Update Christine Pineda Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards ... Environmental Impact Statement- Long-Term Waste Confidence Update" Elements of the ...

  16. Microsoft PowerPoint - womble2004session1

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    09 - December 2010 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2

  17. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2009_2010.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    09 - December 2010 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2 $4 $6 $0 $2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2009 $18 $20 $12 $14 $16 $8 $10 $12 $2

  18. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2011_2012.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    11 - December 2012 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2011 $10 $12 $8 $10 $4 $6 $2 $4 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 3

  19. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2013_2014.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    3 - December 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2013 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 2 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2013 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 3 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2013 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9

  20. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_past_hh.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5 - November 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2015 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 2 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2015 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 $10 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 3 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2015 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9

  1. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_past_wti.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5 - November 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2015 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 2 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2015 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 3 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2015 $0

  2. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2011_2012.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    11 - December 2012 January 2011 December 2012 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2011 $250 $150 $200 $100 $150 $50 $0 Jan

  3. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2013_2014.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    3 - December 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2013 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 2 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2013 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 3 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, March 2013 $0

  4. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2009_2010.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    09 - December 2010 January 2009 December 2010 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 $180 $200 $120 $140 $160 $80 $100 $120 $20 $40 $60 $0 $20 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, February 2009 $180 $200 $120 $140 $160 $80 $100 $120 $20 $40 $60 $0 $20 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 2 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence

  5. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2009_2010.ppt [Compatibility...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    2010 January 2009 December 2010 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, ... Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Historical WTI ...

  6. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2011_2012.ppt [Compatibility...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2011 250 150 200 100 150 50 0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 Historical WTI ...

  7. Other facts

    Annual Energy Outlook

    1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2007 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 2 Historical WTI price and 95% ...

  8. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_wti_2013_2014.ppt [Compatibility...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, ... Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 2 Historical WTI ...

  9. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2013_2014.ppt [Compatibility...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    3 - December 2014 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2013 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul ...

  10. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2009_2010.ppt [Compatibility...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    09 - December 2010 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2009 18 20 12 14 16 8 10 12 2 4 6 0 2 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2008 2008 ...

  11. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_hh_2011_2012.ppt [Compatibility...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    11 - December 2012 Past Henry Hub Price and 95% NYMEX Confidence Interval, January 2011 10 12 8 10 4 6 2 4 0 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 1 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 ...

  12. SystemConfidence

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2012-09-25

    SystemConfidence is a benchmark developed at ORNL which can measure statistical variation in which the user can plot. The portions of the code which manage the collection of the histograms and computing statistics on the histograms were designed with the intent that we could use these functions in other codes.

  13. Waste Confidence Discussion | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Confidence Discussion Waste Confidence Discussion Long-Term Waste Confidence Update. Waste Confidence Discussion (592.19 KB) More Documents & Publications Status Update: Extended ...

  14. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  15. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    11/08/16 11/09/16 11/10/16 11/11/16 11/14/16 11/15/16 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.34 2.22 2.08 2.08 2.26 1997-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.633 2.690 2.632 2.749 2.709 1994-2016 Contract 2 2.810 2.859 2.811 2.937 2.885 1994-2016 Contract 3 2.854 2.898 2.858 2.974 2.931 1994-2016 Contract 4 2.854 2.897 2.860 2.967 2.934 1993-2016

  16. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 4.37 4.0 2.75 3.73 4.37 2.62 1997-2015 NGPL Composite 11.83 15.12 10.98 9.94 9.56 4.97 2007-2015 Futures Prices Contract 1 4.382 4.03 2.83 3.73 4.262 2.627 1994-2015 Contract 2 4.471 4.09 2.93 3.77 4.236 2.684 1994-2015 Contract 3 4.564 4.16 3.02 3.82 4.227 2.739 1994-2015 Contract 4 4.658 4.23 3.11 3.85 4.218 2.792 1993-2015

  17. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 1.92 2.59 2.82 2.82 2.99 2.98 1997-2016 NGPL Composite 5.11 5.25 4.92 4.94 2009-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.08 2.63 2.76 2.72 2.90 3.06 1994-2016 Contract 2 2.23 2.68 2.74 2.77 3.0 3.32 1994-2016 Contract 3 2.31 2.70 2.80 2.93 3.19 3.45 1994-2016 Contract 4 2.36 2.77 2.98 3.16 3.31 3.45

  18. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    10/07/16 10/14/16 10/21/16 10/28/16 11/04/16 11/11/16 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.91 3.17 3.14 2.72 2.50 2.22 1997-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 3.03 3.27 3.16 2.84 2.85 2.69 1994-2016 Contract 2 3.26 3.47 3.44 3.17 3.03 2.86 1994-2016 Contract 3 3.39 3.59 3.58 3.30 3.06 2.91 1994-2016 Contract 4 3.39 3.60 3.59 3.30 3.04 2.90

  19. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Annual Energy Outlook

    NGPL Composite 3.69 3.89 4.48 4.65 2009-2016 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.23 1.93 1.81 2.01 2.08 2.63 1994-2016 Contract 2 2.24 2.0 1.91 2.12 2.23 2.68 1994-2016 Contract 3 2.30 ...

  20. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    15 View History Spot Price Henry Hub 2.75 2.69 2.69 2.70 2.70 2.61 1997-2015 Futures Prices Contract 1 2.72 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.57 1994-2015 Contract 2 2.75 2.70 2.76 2.76 2.75...

  1. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    2.75 3.73 1997-2013 NGPL Composite 8.99 11.83 15.12 10.98 9.94 9.56 2007-2014 Futures Prices Contract 1 4.159 4.382 4.03 2.83 3.73 1994-2013 Contract 2 4.428 4.471 4.09 2.93 3.77...

  2. Natural Gas Futures Prices (NYMEX)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Background The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has compre- hensively reviewed and revised how it collects, estimates, and reports fuel use for facilities producing electricity. The review addressed inconsistent reporting of the fuels used for electric power and changes in the electric power market- place that have been inconsistently represented in various EIA survey forms and publications. For example: * In some cases fuel use by combined-heat-and- power (CHP) plants 1 has been reported

  3. Confidence limits and their errors

    SciTech Connect

    Rajendran Raja

    2002-03-22

    Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use especially in cases of limited statistics. We introduce the concept of statistical errors of confidence limits and argue that not only should limits be calculated but also their errors in order to represent the results of the analysis to the fullest. We show that comparison of two different limits from two different experiments becomes easier when their errors are also quoted. Use of errors of confidence limits will lead to abatement of the debate on which method is best suited to calculate confidence limits.

  4. Computing confidence intervals on solution costs for stochastic grid generation expansion problems.

    SciTech Connect

    Woodruff, David L..; Watson, Jean-Paul

    2010-12-01

    A range of core operations and planning problems for the national electrical grid are naturally formulated and solved as stochastic programming problems, which minimize expected costs subject to a range of uncertain outcomes relating to, for example, uncertain demands or generator output. A critical decision issue relating to such stochastic programs is: How many scenarios are required to ensure a specific error bound on the solution cost? Scenarios are the key mechanism used to sample from the uncertainty space, and the number of scenarios drives computational difficultly. We explore this question in the context of a long-term grid generation expansion problem, using a bounding procedure introduced by Mak, Morton, and Wood. We discuss experimental results using problem formulations independently minimizing expected cost and down-side risk. Our results indicate that we can use a surprisingly small number of scenarios to yield tight error bounds in the case of expected cost minimization, which has key practical implications. In contrast, error bounds in the case of risk minimization are significantly larger, suggesting more research is required in this area in order to achieve rigorous solutions for decision makers.

  5. A recipe for the construction of confidence limits

    SciTech Connect

    Iain A Bertram et al.

    2000-04-12

    In this note, the authors present the recipe recommended by the Search Limits Committee for the construction of confidence intervals for the use of D0 collaboration. In another note, currently in preparation, they present the rationale for this recipe, a critique of the current literature on this topic, and several examples of the use of the method. This note is intended to fill the need of the collaboration to have a reference available until the more complete note is finished. Section 2 introduces the notation used in this note, and Section 3 contains the suggested recipe.

  6. NYMEX Coal Futures - Energy Information Administration

    Annual Energy Outlook

    providing companies in the electric power industry with secure and reliable risk management tools by creating a series of electricity futures contracts fashioned to meet the...

  7. Nymex futures, options volumes continue growth

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, R.P. )

    1990-01-22

    The 1980s has been a decade of learning and growth for the members of the energy futures industry. As the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced new contracts, the energy industry gradually came to understand the value of futures trading to any business plan, especially during turbulent times in the mid-1980s. The result: explosive growth in the latter half of the decade. The author discusses how, as a new decade begins, new challenges are unfolding. Increased liberalization and deregulation of the energy market are trends both at home and abroad. There is increased demand for energy while environmental pressures mount and U.S. production declines. Future production and exports of the energy-rich Soviet Union and consumption patterns of the Eastern Bloc countries are uncertain.

  8. Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

    Reports and Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

  9. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    SciTech Connect

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Oberkampf, William Louis; Ginzburg, Lev; Ferson, Scott; Hajagos, Janos

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  10. The CASL vision is to confidently predict

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    CASL vision is to confidently predict the performance of commercial nuclear power reactors through comprehensive, science-based modeling and simulation technology. To achieve this vision, CASL is assembling, assessing and coupling a variety of phys- ics codes, each with a distinct purpose and functionality. This higher-fidelity coupled physics code capability is intended to have broad, versatile functionality with multiple modules simulating issues such as grid-to-rod-fretting and CRUD

  11. VARIABLE TIME-INTERVAL GENERATOR

    DOEpatents

    Gross, J.E.

    1959-10-31

    This patent relates to a pulse generator and more particularly to a time interval generator wherein the time interval between pulses is precisely determined. The variable time generator comprises two oscillators with one having a variable frequency output and the other a fixed frequency output. A frequency divider is connected to the variable oscillator for dividing its frequency by a selected factor and a counter is used for counting the periods of the fixed oscillator occurring during a cycle of the divided frequency of the variable oscillator. This defines the period of the variable oscillator in terms of that of the fixed oscillator. A circuit is provided for selecting as a time interval a predetermined number of periods of the variable oscillator. The output of the generator consists of a first pulse produced by a trigger circuit at the start of the time interval and a second pulse marking the end of the time interval produced by the same trigger circuit.

  12. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Settlemyer, Bradley W; Hodson, Stephen W; Kuehn, Jeffery A; Poole, Stephen W

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  13. TIME-INTERVAL MEASURING DEVICE

    DOEpatents

    Gross, J.E.

    1958-04-15

    An electronic device for measuring the time interval between two control pulses is presented. The device incorporates part of a previous approach for time measurement, in that pulses from a constant-frequency oscillator are counted during the interval between the control pulses. To reduce the possible error in counting caused by the operation of the counter gating circuit at various points in the pulse cycle, the described device provides means for successively delaying the pulses for a fraction of the pulse period so that a final delay of one period is obtained and means for counting the pulses before and after each stage of delay during the time interval whereby a plurality of totals is obtained which may be averaged and multplied by the pulse period to obtain an accurate time- Interval measurement.

  14. High resolution time interval meter

    DOEpatents

    Martin, A.D.

    1986-05-09

    Method and apparatus are provided for measuring the time interval between two events to a higher resolution than reliability available from conventional circuits and component. An internal clock pulse is provided at a frequency compatible with conventional component operating frequencies for reliable operation. Lumped constant delay circuits are provided for generating outputs at delay intervals corresponding to the desired high resolution. An initiation START pulse is input to generate first high resolution data. A termination STOP pulse is input to generate second high resolution data. Internal counters count at the low frequency internal clock pulse rate between the START and STOP pulses. The first and second high resolution data are logically combined to directly provide high resolution data to one counter and correct the count in the low resolution counter to obtain a high resolution time interval measurement.

  15. Interval Data Systems Inc | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Interval Data Systems Inc Jump to: navigation, search Name: Interval Data Systems Inc Address: 135 Beaver Street Place: Waltham, Massachusetts Zip: 02452 Region: Greater Boston...

  16. Microsoft Word - Prime Contractors and Subcontractors with employment.DOC

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    0 1 April 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Probabilities of Possible Future Prices 1 EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts. The March 2010 STEO added

  17. High resolution time interval counter

    DOEpatents

    Condreva, Kenneth J.

    1994-01-01

    A high resolution counter circuit measures the time interval between the occurrence of an initial and a subsequent electrical pulse to two nanoseconds resolution using an eight megahertz clock. The circuit includes a main counter for receiving electrical pulses and generating a binary word--a measure of the number of eight megahertz clock pulses occurring between the signals. A pair of first and second pulse stretchers receive the signal and generate a pair of output signals whose widths are approximately sixty-four times the time between the receipt of the signals by the respective pulse stretchers and the receipt by the respective pulse stretchers of a second subsequent clock pulse. Output signals are thereafter supplied to a pair of start and stop counters operable to generate a pair of binary output words representative of the measure of the width of the pulses to a resolution of two nanoseconds. Errors associated with the pulse stretchers are corrected by providing calibration data to both stretcher circuits, and recording start and stop counter values. Stretched initial and subsequent signals are combined with autocalibration data and supplied to an arithmetic logic unit to determine the time interval in nanoseconds between the pair of electrical pulses being measured.

  18. High resolution time interval counter

    DOEpatents

    Condreva, K.J.

    1994-07-26

    A high resolution counter circuit measures the time interval between the occurrence of an initial and a subsequent electrical pulse to two nanoseconds resolution using an eight megahertz clock. The circuit includes a main counter for receiving electrical pulses and generating a binary word--a measure of the number of eight megahertz clock pulses occurring between the signals. A pair of first and second pulse stretchers receive the signal and generate a pair of output signals whose widths are approximately sixty-four times the time between the receipt of the signals by the respective pulse stretchers and the receipt by the respective pulse stretchers of a second subsequent clock pulse. Output signals are thereafter supplied to a pair of start and stop counters operable to generate a pair of binary output words representative of the measure of the width of the pulses to a resolution of two nanoseconds. Errors associated with the pulse stretchers are corrected by providing calibration data to both stretcher circuits, and recording start and stop counter values. Stretched initial and subsequent signals are combined with autocalibration data and supplied to an arithmetic logic unit to determine the time interval in nanoseconds between the pair of electrical pulses being measured. 3 figs.

  19. Status Update: Extended Storage and Transportation Waste Confidence...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Status Update: Extended Storage and Transportation Waste Confidence Presentation made by David W. Pstrak for the NTSF annual meeting held from May 14-16, 2013 in Buffalo, NY. ...

  20. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  1. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  2. Establishing confidence in complex physics codes: Art or science?

    SciTech Connect

    Trucano, T.

    1997-12-31

    The ALEGRA shock wave physics code, currently under development at Sandia National Laboratories and partially supported by the US Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI), is generic to a certain class of physics codes: large, multi-application, intended to support a broad user community on the latest generation of massively parallel supercomputer, and in a continual state of formal development. To say that the author has ``confidence`` in the results of ALEGRA is to say something different than that he believes that ALEGRA is ``predictive.`` It is the purpose of this talk to illustrate the distinction between these two concepts. The author elects to perform this task in a somewhat historical manner. He will summarize certain older approaches to code validation. He views these methods as aiming to establish the predictive behavior of the code. These methods are distinguished by their emphasis on local information. He will conclude that these approaches are more art than science.

  3. Increasing Confidence In Geothermal Heat Pump Design Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Shonder, John A; Hughes, Patrick

    1998-03-01

    safety. These conservative designs increase the installed cost of GHP systems, limiting their use and applicability. Moreover, as ground heat exchanger sizing methods have improved, they have suggested (and field tests are beginning to verify) that standard bore backfill practices lead to unnecessarily large ground heat exchangers. Growing evidence suggests that in many applications use of sand backfill with a grout plug at the surface, or use of bottom-to-top thermally enhanced grout, may provide groundwater protection equal to current practice at far less cost. Site tests of thermal properties provides more accurate information, but since these tests are expensive they are usually only performed in large projects. Even so, because soil properties can vary over a distance as small as a few feet, the value of these tests is limited. One objective of ongoing research at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is to increase designers confidence in available ground heat exchanger sizing methods that lead to reliable yet cost-effective designs. To this end we have developed research-grade models that address the interactions between buildings, geothermal heat pump systems and ground heat exchangers The first application of these models was at Fort Polk, Louisiana, where the space conditioning systems of over 4,000 homes were replaced with geothermal heat pumps (Shonder and Hughes, 1997; Hughes et. al., 1997). At Fort Polk, the models were calibrated to detailed data from one of the residences. Data on the energy use of the heat pump, combined with inlet and outlet water temperature and flow rate in the ground heat exchangers, allowed us to determine the thermal properties of the soil formation being experienced by the operating GHP system. Outputs from the models provide all the data required by the various commercially-available ground loop sizing programs. Accurate knowledge of both the building loads and the soil properties eliminated the uncertainty normally associated

  4. 2011-08 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication,

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Evaluation, and Reduction (RACER) Database" | Department of Energy 8 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction (RACER) Database" 2011-08 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction (RACER) Database" This recommendation will ensure restoration of public confidence in a database that has been presented as a reliable tool for the public to understand the status of samples from the

  5. Is a Short-Interval Postradiation Mammogram Necessary After Conservative Surgery and Radiation in Breast Cancer?

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Kevin Eradat, Jilbert B.S.; Mehta, Niraj H.; Bent, Chris; Lee, Steve P.; Apple, Sophia K.; Bassett, Lawrence W.

    2008-11-15

    Purpose: To examine, in a retrospective study, whether the initial posttreatment mammogram offers any benefit to patients. Methods and Materials: Patients were selected who had radiation after breast-conservation therapy from 1995 through 2005 and had follow-up mammography at University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) within 1 year of completing radiotherapy. Results of the initial follow-up mammogram were analyzed to determine the yield of this initial mammogram. Results: Between 1995 and 2005, 408 patients treated with breast-conserving therapy and radiation had follow-up mammograms at UCLA within 1 year of completion of radiation. Median age at radiation completion was 56.9 years. Median interval between radiation and the initial mammogram was 3.1 months. Ten patients were found to have suspicious findings on the initial postradiation mammogram, prompting biopsy, but only 2 were found to have recurrent cancer. None of those lesions were palpable. In both cases the recurrences were ductal carcinoma in situ. Thus, the yield of the initial postoperative mammogram as compared with physical examination findings is estimated at 0.49 recurrences detected per 100 mammograms performed (95% confidence interval 0.059-1.759). Conclusions: The yield of the initial postradiation mammography at UCLA seems to be low, and only noninvasive carcinomas were found. Our data support the rationale to avoid the initial short-interval postradiation mammography and evaluate patients at 12 months.

  6. 2011-08 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    in the Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction (RACER) Database" 2011-08 "Restore User Confidence in the Risk Analysis, Communication, Evaluation, and Reduction ...

  7. Restricted Interval Guelph permeameter: Theory andapplication

    SciTech Connect

    Freifeld, Barry M.; Oldenburg, Curtis M.

    2003-06-19

    A constant head permeameter system has been developed for use in small diameter boreholes with any orientation. It is based upon the original Guelph permeameter concept of using a Mariotte siphon reservoir to control the applied head. The new tool, called a Restricted Interval Guelph (RIG) permeameter uses either a single pneumatic packer or straddle packer to restrict the area through which water is allowed to flow so that the borehole wetted area is independent of the applied head. The RIG permeameter has been used at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, in the nonwelded rhyolitic Paintbrush Tuff. Analysis of the acquired data is based upon saturated-unsaturated flow theory that relies upon the quasi-linear approximation to estimate field-saturated hydraulic conductivity (Kfs) and the a parameter (sorptive number) of the exponential relative hydraulic conductivity pressure head relationship. These results are compared with a numerical model based upon the solution of the Richards equation using a van Genuchten capillary pressure-saturation formulation. The numerical model incorporates laboratory capillary pressure versus saturation functions measured from cores taken from nearby boreholes. Comparison between the analytical and numerical approaches shows that the simple analytic model is valid for analyzing the data collected. Sensitivity analysis performed with the numerical model shows that the RIG permeameter is an effective tool for estimating permeability and sorptive number for the nonwelded Paintbrush Tuff.

  8. Hydrologic studies in wells open through large intervals

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-01-01

    This report describes and summarizes activities, data, and preliminary data interpretation from the INEL Oversight Program R D-1 project titled Hydrologic Studies In Wells Open Through Large Intervals.'' The project is designed to use a straddle-packer system to isolate, hydraulically test, and sample specific intervals of monitoring wells that are open (uncased, unscreened) over large intervals of the Snake River Plain aquifer. The objectives of the project are to determine and compare vertical variations in water quality and aquifer properties that have previously only been determined in an integrated fashion over the entire thickness of the open interval of the observation wells.

  9. Method for Confidence Metric in Optic Disk Location in Retinal Images -

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Innovation Portal Method for Confidence Metric in Optic Disk Location in Retinal Images Oak Ridge National Laboratory Contact ORNL About This Technology Technology Marketing Summary To improve accuracy in diagnosis of retinal disease, ORNL researchers invented a method for assigning a confidence metric to computer-aided optic disc analysis. The physical condition of the optic disk determines the presence of various ophthalmic pathologies, including glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy.

  10. Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/18: Maritime Cooperation Between India and Pakistan: Building Confidence at Sea

    SciTech Connect

    SIDDIQA-AGHA,AYESHA

    2000-11-01

    This paper discusses ways in which the navies of both India and Pakistan can cooperate on issues of maritime and naval significance. Although the militaries and navies of the two countries have traditionally seen each other as rivals, international economic developments make cooperation imperative. South Asia requires an approach that can alter the existing hostile images and perceptions. This can be achieved through developing an incremental approach towards confidence building that would allow consistency and help build confidence gradually. The aim is to make confidence building a sustainable activity that would help transform hostile images and build cooperative and nonhostile relationships. This paper proposes a five-step model to suggest what the two navies can do jointly to build confidence, with the ultimate goal of naval arms control. The steps include (1) the Signaling Stage to initiate communication between the two navies, (2) the Warming-Up Stage to build confidence through nonmilitary joint ventures, (3) the Handshake Stage to build confidence between the two navies through military joint ventures, (4) the Problem-Solving Stage to resolve outstanding disputes, and (5) the Final Nod Stage to initiate naval arms control. This model would employ communication, navigation, and remote sensing technologies to achieve success.

  11. Method and system for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location

    DOEpatents

    Karnowski, Thomas P.; Tobin, Jr., Kenneth W.; Muthusamy Govindasamy, Vijaya Priya; Chaum, Edward

    2012-07-10

    A method for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location that includes analyzing a retinal image and determining at least two sets of coordinates locating an optic disc in the retinal image. The sets of coordinates can be determined using first and second image analysis techniques that are different from one another. An accuracy parameter can be calculated and compared to a primary risk cut-off value. A high confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is less than the primary risk cut-off value and a low confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is greater than the primary risk cut-off value. The primary risk cut-off value being selected to represent an acceptable risk of misdiagnosis of a disease having retinal manifestations by the automated technique.

  12. Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

    2004-08-01

    We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

  13. Alert Confidence Fusion in Intrusion Detection Systems with Extended Dempster- Shafer Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Dong; Frincke, Deborah A.

    2005-03-01

    Extend Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence to include differential weightings of alerts drawn from multiple sources. The intent is to support automated (and manual) response to threat by producing more realistic confidence ratings for IDS alerts than is currently available.

  14. Tables for Trials and Failures with PD for Designated Confidence Level

    SciTech Connect

    Leach, Janice

    2014-02-01

    Two attachments are provided for performance testing of sensors and other Physical Protection System (PPS) components.#2; The first attachment is a table of Trials and Failures, giving Probability of Detection (PD) for a designated confidence level and sorted by trials.#2; The second attachment contains the same data, sorted by failures.

  15. A National Radiation Oncology Medical Student Clerkship Survey: Didactic Curricular Components Increase Confidence in Clinical Competency

    SciTech Connect

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials: An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results: The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon ranksum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ? P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ? P=.43). Conclusions: Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These results

  16. Picturing probable repression and revenue confidence limits in utility rate cases

    SciTech Connect

    Larson, J.C.

    1984-08-02

    Determining the amount of reduction in demand for a utility service that will result from a given increase in the price for that service, so that the rate increase may be properly adjusted to provide the needed revenue increase, is one of the most complex and difficult-to-understand processes in utility rate making. What is needed, the author of this article says, is a presentational device which is capable of bringing the implications of the pertinent statistics more clearly into view for the typical regulatory commissioner. The purpose of the article is to describe such a device. It involves showing revenue curves and demand-curve confidence limits in such a way that repression and revenue confidence limits are more easily visualized and comprehended.

  17. Crisis Prevention Centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for the Middle East

    SciTech Connect

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are important in this area, and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, interrelated categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. Technology is required for establishing communication systems to ensure the timely flow of information between countries and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues, thereby supporting the implementation of confidence building measures and treaties. Technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries, thereby providing an important channel for improving relationships. Potential first steps for a CPC in the Middle Ease could include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a ``Hot Line` in bilateral and multilateral-lateral emergency situations. Bilateral cooperative monitoring centers could be established to assist with implementation of agreements. A centrally located CPC could serve as a regional communications hub, coordinating a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities. Specific recommendations for confidence building activities are discussed.

  18. Measurement of the 2S Hyperfine Interval in Atomic Hydrogen

    SciTech Connect

    Kolachevsky, N.; Matveev, A.; Alnis, J.; Parthey, C. G.; Karshenboim, S. G.; Haensch, T. W.

    2009-05-29

    An optical measurement of the 2S hyperfine interval in atomic hydrogen using two-photon spectroscopy of the 1S-2S transition gives a value of 177 556 834.3(6.7) Hz. The uncertainty is 2.4 times smaller than achieved by our group in 2003 and more than 4 times smaller than for any independent radio-frequency measurement. The specific combination of the 2S and 1S hyperfine intervals predicted by QED theory 8f{sub HFS}(2S)-f{sub HFS}(1S)=48 953(3) Hz is in good agreement with the value of 48 923(54) Hz obtained from this experiment.

  19. Crisis prevention centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for Northeast Asia

    SciTech Connect

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are particularly important and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, inter-related categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. First, technology is required to establishing communication systems and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Second, technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues. In addition, technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries. Establishing a CPC in Northeast Asia does not require the existence of an Asian security regime. Potential first steps for such a CPC should include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a {open_quotes}Hot Line{close_quotes} in bilateral and multilateral emergency situations. A central CPC could also be established as a regional communications hub. The central CPC could coordinate a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities, perhaps initially in an unofficial capacity. Specific recommendations for confidence building measures are discussed.

  20. Interval From Imaging to Treatment Delivery in the Radiation Surgery Age: How Long Is Too Long?

    SciTech Connect

    Seymour, Zachary A.; Fogh, Shannon E.; Westcott, Sarah K.; Braunstein, Steve; Larson, David A.; Barani, Igor J.; Nakamura, Jean; Sneed, Penny K.

    2015-09-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate workflow and patient outcomes related to frameless stereotactic radiation surgery (SRS) for brain metastases. Methods and Materials: We reviewed all treatment demographics, clinical outcomes, and workflow timing, including time from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT) simulation, insurance authorization, and consultation to the start of SRS for brain metastases. Results: A total of 82 patients with 151 brain metastases treated with SRS were evaluated. The median times from consultation, insurance authorization, CT simulation, and MRI for treatment planning were 15, 7, 6, and 11 days to SRS. Local freedom from progression (LFFP) was lower in metastases with MRI ≥14 days before treatment (P=.0003, log rank). The 6- and 12-month LFFP rate were 95% and 75% for metastasis with interval of <14 days from MRI to treatment compared to 56% and 34% for metastases with MRI ≥14 days before treatment. On multivariate analysis, LFFP remained significantly lower for lesions with MRI ≥14 days at SRS (P=.002, Cox proportional hazards; hazard ratio: 3.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.6-7.3). Conclusions: Delay from MRI to SRS treatment delivery for brain metastases appears to reduce local control. Future studies should monitor the timing from imaging acquisition to treatment delivery. Our experience suggests that the time from MRI to treatment should be <14 days.

  1. Confidence building measures at sea:opportunities for India and Pakistan.

    SciTech Connect

    Vohra, Ravi Bhushan Rear Admiral; Ansari, Hasan Masood Rear Admiral

    2003-12-01

    The sea presents unique possibilities for implementing confidence building measures (CBMs) between India and Pakistan that are currently not available along the contentious land borders surrounding Jammu and Kashmir. This is due to the nature of maritime issues, the common military culture of naval forces, and a less contentious history of maritime interaction between the two nations. Maritime issues of mutual concern provide a strong foundation for more far-reaching future CBMs on land, while addressing pressing security, economic, and humanitarian needs at sea in the near-term. Although Indian and Pakistani maritime forces currently have stronger opportunities to cooperate with one another than their counterparts on land, reliable mechanisms to alleviate tension or promote operational coordination remain non-existent. Therefore, possible maritime CBMs, as well as pragmatic mechanisms to initiate and sustain cooperation, require serious examination. This report reflects the unique joint research undertaking of two retired Senior Naval Officers from both India and Pakistan, sponsored by the Cooperative Monitoring Center of the International Security Center at Sandia National Laboratories. Research focuses on technology as a valuable tool to facilitate confidence building between states having a low level of initial trust. Technical CBMs not only increase transparency, but also provide standardized, scientific means of interacting on politically difficult problems. Admirals Vohra and Ansari introduce technology as a mechanism to facilitate consistent forms of cooperation and initiate discussion in the maritime realm. They present technical CBMs capable of being acted upon as well as high-level political recommendations regarding the following issues: (1) Delimitation of the maritime boundary between India and Pakistan and its relationship to the Sir Creek dispute; (2) Restoration of full shipping links and the security of ports and cargos; (3) Fishing within

  2. Marker-free registration of forest terrestrial laser scanner data pairs with embedded confidence metrics

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Van Aardt, Jan; Romanczyk, Paul; van Leeuwen, Martin; Kelbe, David; Cawse-Nicholson, Kerry

    2016-04-04

    Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has emerged as an effective tool for rapid comprehensive measurement of object structure. Registration of TLS data is an important prerequisite to overcome the limitations of occlusion. However, due to the high dissimilarity of point cloud data collected from disparate viewpoints in the forest environment, adequate marker-free registration approaches have not been developed. The majority of studies instead rely on the utilization of artificial tie points (e.g., reflective tooling balls) placed within a scene to aid in coordinate transformation. We present a technique for generating view-invariant feature descriptors that are intrinsic to the point cloud datamore » and, thus, enable blind marker-free registration in forest environments. To overcome the limitation of initial pose estimation, we employ a voting method to blindly determine the optimal pairwise transformation parameters, without an a priori estimate of the initial sensor pose. To provide embedded error metrics, we developed a set theory framework in which a circular transformation is traversed between disjoint tie point subsets. This provides an upper estimate of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) confidence associated with each pairwise transformation. Output RMSE errors are commensurate with the RMSE of input tie points locations. Thus, while the mean output RMSE=16.3cm, improved results could be achieved with a more precise laser scanning system. This study 1) quantifies the RMSE of the proposed marker-free registration approach, 2) assesses the validity of embedded confidence metrics using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, and 3) informs optimal sample spacing considerations for TLS data collection in New England forests. Furthermore, while the implications for rapid, accurate, and precise forest inventory are obvious, the conceptual framework outlined here could potentially be extended to built environments.« less

  3. Sample Preparation Report of the Fourth OPCW Confidence Building Exercise on Biomedical Sample Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Udey, R. N.; Corzett, T. H.; Alcaraz, A.

    2014-07-03

    Following the successful completion of the 3rd biomedical confidence building exercise (February 2013 – March 2013), which included the analysis of plasma and urine samples spiked at low ppb levels as part of the exercise scenario, another confidence building exercise was targeted to be conducted in 2014. In this 4th exercise, it was desired to focus specifically on the analysis of plasma samples. The scenario was designed as an investigation of an alleged use of chemical weapons where plasma samples were collected, as plasma has been reported to contain CWA adducts which remain present in the human body for several weeks (Solano et al. 2008). In the 3rd exercise most participants used the fluoride regeneration method to analyze for the presence of nerve agents in plasma samples. For the 4th biomedical exercise it was decided to evaluate the analysis of human plasma samples for the presence/absence of the VX adducts and aged adducts to blood proteins (e.g., VX-butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) and aged BuChE adducts using a pepsin digest technique to yield nonapeptides; or equivalent). As the aging of VX-BuChE adducts is relatively slow (t1/2 = 77 hr at 37 °C [Aurbek et al. 2009]), soman (GD), which ages much more quickly (t1/2 = 9 min at 37 °C [Masson et al. 2010]), was used to simulate an aged VX sample. Additional objectives of this exercise included having laboratories assess novel OP-adducted plasma sample preparation techniques and analytical instrumentation methodologies, as well as refining/designating the reporting formats for these new techniques.

  4. SEP Request for Approval Form 1 - Modeling of Data at Finer Intervals...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    SEP Request for Approval Form 1 - Modeling of Data at Finer Intervals than Weekly File SEP-Request-for-Approval-Form-1Modeling-of-Data-at-Finer-Intervals-than-Weekly.docx More ...

  5. Building trust and confidence in laboratory ES and H policy and practices

    SciTech Connect

    Graf, J.

    2000-08-01

    This report describes a successful pilot event among LANL employees that can see as a model for employee involvement and community input. The conference was designed to begin building trust and confidence in Laboratory policy and practices in the area of Environment, Safety, and Health (ES and H). It represents a concrete step toward fostering better relationships among Lab employees and creating a new, innovative approach to communication that can also be used to build trust in the larger community. Based on the proven methods of the National Issues Forums and the Jefferson Center Citizen Jury Process, this conference enabled management to learn more about the thoughts and advice of LANL employees, During the course of the day, a random sample of Lab employees representing the LANL workforce learned about issues of health, safety and the environment, and some of the options available to increase trustworthiness in these areas. These Employee Advisors then discussed the options at some length and presented recommendations to senior Lab managers in the role of Decision Makers. At the end of the day, the participants offered their reflections and discussed what they learned during the conference, and Decision Makers responded to what they heard. The most common view expressed by the Employee Advisors was that a bottom-up approach was necessary to develop more relevant ES and H policies. They were unanimous in their desire for more employee inclusion into the decision making process. All Employee Advisors were in support of a Lab wide survey to determine employee concerns about ES and H issues. After listening to the deliberation, the Decision Makers responded with several commitments. The most significant was the pledge to meet with Employee Advisors by the end of February to discuss the status of their recommendations on ES and H policy and practices. The ensuing follow-up meeting explored employee concerns in greater depth resulting in forward-looking action steps

  6. Pattern selection and super-patterns in the bounded confidence model

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Ben-Naim, E.; Scheel, A.

    2015-10-26

    We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes ofmore » the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. Furthermore, the spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.« less

  7. Developing information-space Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) between India and Pakistan

    SciTech Connect

    Yamin, Tughral

    2014-06-01

    The Internet has changed the world in ways hitherto unknown. The international financial system, air, land and maritime transport systems are all digitally linked. Similarly most militaries are fully or partially networked. This has not only sped up the decision making processes at all levels, it has also rendered these systems vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Cyber-warfare is now recognized as the most potent form of non-kinetic war fighting. In order to prevent large scale network-attacks, cyber-powers are simultaneously spending a lot of time, money and effort to erect redundant cyber-defenses and enhancing their offensive cyber capabilities. Difficulties in creating a stable environment in information-space stem from differing national perceptions regarding the freedom of the Internet, application of international law and problems associated with attribution. This paper discusses a range of Confidence Building Measures that can be created between India and Pakistan in information-space to control malicious cyber behavior and avert an inadvertent war.

  8. Pattern selection and super-patterns in the bounded confidence model

    SciTech Connect

    Ben-Naim, E.; Scheel, A.

    2015-10-26

    We study pattern formation in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics. In this random process, opinion is quantified by a single variable. Two agents may interact and reach a fair compromise, but only if their difference of opinion falls below a fixed threshold. Starting from a uniform distribution of opinions with compact support, a traveling wave forms and it propagates from the domain boundary into the unstable uniform state. Consequently, the system reaches a steady state with isolated clusters that are separated by distance larger than the interaction range. These clusters form a quasi-periodic pattern where the sizes of the clusters and the separations between them are nearly constant. We obtain analytically the average separation between clusters L. Interestingly, there are also very small quasi-periodic modulations in the size of the clusters. Furthermore, the spatial periods of these modulations are a series of integers that follow from the continued-fraction representation of the irrational average separation L.

  9. Extending Sensor Calibration Intervals in Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Coble, Jamie B.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Shumaker, Brent; Hashemian, Hash

    2012-11-15

    Currently in the USA, sensor recalibration is required at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration. International application of calibration monitoring, such as at the Sizewell B plant in UK, has shown that sensors may operate for eight years, or longer, within calibration tolerances. Online monitoring can be employed to identify those sensors which require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors which need it. The US NRC accepted the general concept of online monitoring for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This project addresses key issues in advanced recalibration methodologies and provides the science base to enable adoption of best practices for applying online monitoring, resulting in a public domain standardized methodology for sensor calibration interval extension. Research to develop this methodology will focus on three key areas: (1) quantification of uncertainty in modeling techniques used for calibration monitoring, with a particular focus on non-redundant sensor models; (2) accurate determination of acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and (3) the use of virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity.

  10. On the need and use of models to explore the role of economic confidence:a survey.

    SciTech Connect

    Sprigg, James A.; Paez, Paul J.; Hand, Michael S.

    2005-04-01

    Empirical studies suggest that consumption is more sensitive to current income than suggested under the permanent income hypothesis, which raises questions regarding expectations for future income, risk aversion, and the role of economic confidence measures. This report surveys a body of fundamental economic literature as well as burgeoning computational modeling methods to support efforts to better anticipate cascading economic responses to terrorist threats and attacks. This is a three part survey to support the incorporation of models of economic confidence into agent-based microeconomic simulations. We first review broad underlying economic principles related to this topic. We then review the economic principle of confidence and related empirical studies. Finally, we provide a brief survey of efforts and publications related to agent-based economic simulation.

  11. Transits of planets with small intervals in circumbinary systems

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Hui-Gen; Wang, Ying; Zhang, Hui; Zhou, Ji-Lin

    2014-08-01

    Transit times around single stars can be described well by a linear ephemeris. However, transit times in circumbinary systems are influenced both by the gravitational perturbations and the orbital phase variations of the central binary star. Adopting a coplanar analog of Kepler-16 as an example, we find that circumbinary planets can transit the same star more than once during a single planetary orbit, a phenomenon we call 'tight transits.' In certain geometric architecture, the projected orbital velocity of the planet and the secondary star can approach zero and change sign, resulting in very long transits and/or 2-3 transits during a single binary orbit. Whether tight transits are possible for a particular system depends primarily on the binary mass ratio and the orbital architecture of both the binary and the planet. We derive a time-dependent criterion to judge when tight transits are possible for any circumbinary system. These results are verified with full dynamical integrations that also reveal other tight transit characteristics, i.e., the transit durations and the intervals between tight transits. For the seven currently known circumbinary systems, we estimate these critical parameters both analytically and numerically. Due to the mutual inclination between the planet and the binary, tight transits can only occur across the less massive star B in Kepler-16, -34, -35, and -47 (for both planets). The long-term average frequency of tight transits (compared to typical transits) for Kepler-16, -34, and -35 are estimated to be several percent. Using full numerical integrations, the next tight transit for each system is predicted and the soonest example appears to be Kepler-47b and -47c, which are likely to have tight transits before 2025. These unique and valuable events often deserve special observational scrutiny.

  12. SEP Request for Approval Form 1 - Modeling of Data at Finer Intervals than

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Weekly | Department of Energy 1 - Modeling of Data at Finer Intervals than Weekly SEP Request for Approval Form 1 - Modeling of Data at Finer Intervals than Weekly SEP-Request-for-Approval-Form-1_Modeling-of-Data-at-Finer-Intervals-than-Weekly.docx (36.88 KB) More Documents & Publications SEP Request for Approval Form 7 - Other Situations for Consumption Adjustment Superior Energy Performance Enrollment and Application Forms SEP Request for Approval Form 5 - Model Does Not Satisfy

  13. Hydrologic studies in wells open through large intervals. Annual report, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-12-31

    This report describes and summarizes activities, data, and preliminary data interpretation from the INEL Oversight Program R&D-1 project titled ``Hydrologic Studies In Wells Open Through Large Intervals.`` The project is designed to use a straddle-packer system to isolate, hydraulically test, and sample specific intervals of monitoring wells that are open (uncased, unscreened) over large intervals of the Snake River Plain aquifer. The objectives of the project are to determine and compare vertical variations in water quality and aquifer properties that have previously only been determined in an integrated fashion over the entire thickness of the open interval of the observation wells.

  14. Microsoft PowerPoint - 9_ANDY_IMBODEN_NMMSS_2014_Powerpoint_Waste Confidence Update Imboden.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    NRC's Waste Confidence Rulemaking Andy Imboden, NRC, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards Outline  Schedule  Completed Activities  Public Participation  Public Input to Policy Issues  Path Forward 2 Schedule 3 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 Scoping for GEIS (Generic Environmental Impact Statement) Develop Draft GEIS and Proposed Rule Public Comment Develop Final GEIS and Final Rule Completed Activities  EIS scoping October 25, 2012 - January 2, 2013  Scoping

  15. Confidence building on the Korean Peninsula: A conceptual development for the cooperative monitoring of limited-force deployment zones

    SciTech Connect

    Vannoni, M.; Duggan, R.; Nam, M.K.; Moon, K.K.; Kim, M.J.

    1997-04-01

    Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of North and South Korea could decrease the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and help create an environment in which to negotiate a peace regime. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) and the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) of Sandia National Laboratories collaborated to identify potential CBMs and define associated monitoring. The project is a conceptual analysis of political and technical options for confidence building that might be feasible in Korea at some future time. KIDA first analyzed current security conditions and options for CBMs. Their conclusions are presented as a hypothetical agreement to strengthen the Armistice Agreement by establishing Limited Force Deployment Zones along the Military Demarcation Line. The goal of the hypothetical agreement is to increase mutual security and build confidence. The CMC then used KIDA`s scenario to develop a strategy for cooperative monitoring the agreement. Cooperative monitoring is the collecting, analyzing and sharing of agreed information among parties to an agreement and typically relies on the use of commercially available technology. A cooperative monitoring regime must be consistent with the agreement`s terms; the geographic, logistic, military, and political factors in the Korean setting; and the capabilities of monitoring technologies. This report describes the security situation on the Korean peninsula, relevant precedents from other regions, the hypothetical agreement for reducing military tensions, a monitoring strategy for the hypothetical Korean agreement, examples of implementation, and a description of applicable monitoring technologies and procedures.

  16. Determination of optimum time interval of meteorological data used with atmospheric dose modeling at SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Simpkins, A.A.; Parker, M.J.; Weber, A.H.

    2000-06-01

    Measured tritium oxide concentrations in air were compared with calculated values using routine release Gaussian plume models for different time intervals of meteorological data. These comparisons determined an optimum time interval of meteorological data used with atmospheric dose models at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Meteorological data of varying time intervals (1 y to 10 y) were used for the comparison. Insignificant differences are seen in using a 1-y database as opposed to a 5-y database. Use of a 10-y database results in slightly higher or more conservative estimates. For meteorological databases of length 1 y to 5 y the mean ratio of predicted to measured tritium oxide concentrations is approximately 1.25 whereas for the 10-y database the ratio is closer to 1.35. Currently at the SRS a meteorological database of five year's duration is used for all dose models. This study suggests no substantially improved accuracy using shorter or longer time intervals.

  17. A Methodology for Evaluation of Inservice Test Intervals for Pumps and Motor Operated Valves

    SciTech Connect

    McElhaney, K.L.

    1999-08-01

    The nuclear industry has begun efforts to reevaluate inservice tests (ISTs) for key components such as pumps and valves. At issue are two important questions--What kinds of tests provide the most meaningful information about component health, and what periodic test intervals are appropriate? In the past, requirements for component testing were prescribed by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. The tests and test intervals specified in the Code were generic in nature and test intervals were relatively short. Operating experience has shown, however, that performance and safety improvements and cost savings could be realized by tailoring IST programs to similar components with comparable safety importance and service conditions. In many cases, test intervals may be lengthened, resulting in cost savings for utilities and their customers.

  18. Monitoring molecular interactions using photon arrival-time interval distribution analysis

    DOEpatents

    Laurence, Ted A.; Weiss, Shimon

    2009-10-06

    A method for analyzing/monitoring the properties of species that are labeled with fluorophores. A detector is used to detect photons emitted from species that are labeled with one or more fluorophores and located in a confocal detection volume. The arrival time of each of the photons is determined. The interval of time between various photon pairs is then determined to provide photon pair intervals. The number of photons that have arrival times within the photon pair intervals is also determined. The photon pair intervals are then used in combination with the corresponding counts of intervening photons to analyze properties and interactions of the molecules including brightness, concentration, coincidence and transit time. The method can be used for analyzing single photon streams and multiple photon streams.

  19. Calculating Confidence, Uncertainty, and Numbers of Samples When Using Statistical Sampling Approaches to Characterize and Clear Contaminated Areas

    SciTech Connect

    Piepel, Gregory F.; Matzke, Brett D.; Sego, Landon H.; Amidan, Brett G.

    2013-04-27

    This report discusses the methodology, formulas, and inputs needed to make characterization and clearance decisions for Bacillus anthracis-contaminated and uncontaminated (or decontaminated) areas using a statistical sampling approach. Specifically, the report includes the methods and formulas for calculating the • number of samples required to achieve a specified confidence in characterization and clearance decisions • confidence in making characterization and clearance decisions for a specified number of samples for two common statistically based environmental sampling approaches. In particular, the report addresses an issue raised by the Government Accountability Office by providing methods and formulas to calculate the confidence that a decision area is uncontaminated (or successfully decontaminated) if all samples collected according to a statistical sampling approach have negative results. Key to addressing this topic is the probability that an individual sample result is a false negative, which is commonly referred to as the false negative rate (FNR). The two statistical sampling approaches currently discussed in this report are 1) hotspot sampling to detect small isolated contaminated locations during the characterization phase, and 2) combined judgment and random (CJR) sampling during the clearance phase. Typically if contamination is widely distributed in a decision area, it will be detectable via judgment sampling during the characterization phrase. Hotspot sampling is appropriate for characterization situations where contamination is not widely distributed and may not be detected by judgment sampling. CJR sampling is appropriate during the clearance phase when it is desired to augment judgment samples with statistical (random) samples. The hotspot and CJR statistical sampling approaches are discussed in the report for four situations: 1. qualitative data (detect and non-detect) when the FNR = 0 or when using statistical sampling methods that account

  20. PHASER 2.10 methodology for dependence, importance, and sensitivity: The role of scale factors, confidence factors, and extremes

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, J.A.

    1996-09-01

    PHASER (Probabilistic Hybrid Analytical System Evaluation Routine) is a software tool that has the capability of incorporating subjective expert judgment into probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) along with conventional data inputs. An earlier report described the PHASER methodology, but only gave a cursory explanation about how dependence was incorporated in Version 1.10 and about how ``Importance`` and ``Sensitivity`` measures were to be incorporated in Version 2.00. A more detailed description is given in this report. The basic concepts involve scale factors and confidence factors that are associated with the stochastic variability and subjective uncertainty (which are common adjuncts used in PSA), and the safety risk extremes that are crucial to safety assessment. These are all utilized to illustrate methodology for incorporating dependence among analysis variables in generating PSA results, and for Importance and Sensitivity measures associated with the results that help point out where any major sources of safety concern arise and where any major sources of uncertainty reside, respectively.

  1. Update to Risk-Informed Pressurized Water Reactor Vessel 10 to 20 Year Inspection Interval Extension

    SciTech Connect

    Palm, Nathan A.; Bishop, Bruce A.; Boggess, Cheryl L.

    2006-07-01

    The Pressurized Water Reactor Owners Group (formerly the Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG)) methodology for extending the inservice inspection interval for welds in pressurized water reactor (PWR) reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was introduced as ICONE12-49429. The paper presented a risk informed basis for extending the interval between inspections from the current interval of 10 years to 20 years. In the paper presented at ICONE-12, results of pilot studies on typical Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering Nuclear Steam Supply System (NSSS) designs of PWR vessels showed that the change in risk associated with the proposed inspection interval extension was within the guidelines specified in the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Regulatory Guide 1.174 for an acceptably small change in risk. Since the methodology was originally presented, the evaluation has been updated to incorporate the latest changes in the NRC Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) Risk Reevaluation Program and expanded to include the Babcock and Wilcox NSSS RPV design. The results of these evaluations demonstrate that the proposed RPV inspection interval extension remains a viable option for the industry. The updates to the methodology and input, pilot plant evaluations, results, process for demonstrating applicability of the pilot plant analysis to non-pilot lead plants and lessons learned from the evaluations performed are summarized in this paper. (authors)

  2. Maximal tractable subclasses of Allen`s interval algebra: Preliminary report

    SciTech Connect

    Drakengren, T.; Jonsson, P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper continues Nebel and Burckert`s investigation of Allen`s interval algebra by presenting nine more maximal tractable subclasses of the algebra (provided that P {ne} NP), in addition to their previously reported ORD-Horn subclass. Furthermore, twelve tractable subclasses are identified, whose maximality is riot decided. Four of these can express the notion of sequentiality between intervals, which is not possible in the ORD-Horn algebra. The satisfiability algorithm, which is common for all the algebras, is shown to be linear.

  3. Cooperative Monitoring Center Occasional Paper/12: ENTNEA: A Concept for Enhancing Nuclear Transparency for Confidence Building in Northeast Asia

    SciTech Connect

    Nam, Man-Kwon; Shin, Sung-Tack

    1999-06-01

    Nuclear energy continues to be a strong and growing component of economic development in Northeast Asia. A broad range of nuclear energy systems already exists across the region and vigorous growth is projected. Associated with these capabilities and plans are various concerns about operational safety, environmental protection, and accumulation of spent fuel and other nuclear materials. We consider cooperative measures that might address these concerns. The confidence building measures suggested here center on the sharing of information to lessen concerns about nuclear activities or to solve technical problems. These activities are encompassed by an Enhanced Nuclear Transparency in Northeast Asia (ENTNEA) concept that would be composed of near-term, information-sharing activities and an eventual regional institution. The near-term activities would address specific concerns and build a tradition of cooperation; examples include radiation measurements for public safety and emergency response, demonstration of safe operations at facilities and in transportation, and material security in the back end of the fuel cycle. Linkages to existing efforts and organizations would be sought to maximize the benefits of cooperation. In the longer term, the new cooperative tradition might evolve into an ENTNEA institution. In institutional form, ENTNEA could combine the near-term activities and new cooperative activities, which might require an institutional basis, for the mutual benefit and security of regional parties.

  4. A survey of radiographers' confidence and self-perceived accuracy in frontline image interpretation and their continuing educational preferences

    SciTech Connect

    Neep, Michael J; Steffens, Tom; Owen, Rebecca; McPhail, Steven M

    2014-06-15

    The provision of a written comment on traumatic abnormalities of the musculoskeletal system detected by radiographers can assist referrers and may improve patient management, but the practice has not been widely adopted outside the United Kingdom. The purpose of this study was to investigate Australian radiographers' perceptions of their readiness for practice in a radiographer commenting system and their educational preferences in relation to two different delivery formats of image interpretation education, intensive and non-intensive. A cross-sectional web-based questionnaire was implemented between August and September 2012. Participants included radiographers with experience working in emergency settings at four Australian metropolitan hospitals. Conventional descriptive statistics, frequency histograms, and thematic analysis were undertaken. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test examined whether a difference in preference ratings between intensive and non-intensive education delivery was evident. The questionnaire was completed by 73 radiographers (68% response rate). Radiographers reported higher confidence and self-perceived accuracy to detect traumatic abnormalities than to describe traumatic abnormalities of the musculoskeletal system. Radiographers frequently reported high desirability ratings for both the intensive and the non-intensive education delivery, no difference in desirability ratings for these two formats was evident (z = 1.66, P = 0.11). Some Australian radiographers perceive they are not ready to practise in a frontline radiographer commenting system. Overall, radiographers indicated mixed preferences for image interpretation education delivered via intensive and non-intensive formats. Further research, preferably randomised trials, investigating the effectiveness of intensive and non-intensive education formats of image interpretation education for radiographers is warranted.

  5. Interval Data Analysis with the Energy Charting and Metrics Tool (ECAM)

    SciTech Connect

    Taasevigen, Danny J.; Katipamula, Srinivas; Koran, William

    2011-07-07

    Analyzing whole building interval data is an inexpensive but effective way to identify and improve building operations, and ultimately save money. Utilizing the Energy Charting and Metrics Tool (ECAM) add-in for Microsoft Excel, building operators and managers can begin implementing changes to their Building Automation System (BAS) after trending the interval data. The two data components needed for full analyses are whole building electricity consumption (kW or kWh) and outdoor air temperature (OAT). Using these two pieces of information, a series of plots and charts and be created in ECAM to monitor the buildings performance over time, gain knowledge of how the building is operating, and make adjustments to the BAS to improve efficiency and start saving money.

  6. Multiwell Experiment: I, The marine interval of the Mesaverde Formation: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-04-01

    The Department of Energy's Multiwell Experiment is a field laboratory in the Piceance Basin of Colorado which has two overall objectives: to characterize the low permeability gas reservoirs in the Mesaverde Formation and to develop technology for their production. Different depositional environments have created distinctly different reservoirs in the Mesaverde, and MWX has addressed each of these in turn. This report presents a comprehensive summary of results from the lowermost interval: the marine interval which lies between 7450 and 8250 ft at the MWX site. Separate sections of this report are background and summary; site description and operations; geology; log analysis; core analysis; in situ stress; well testing, analysis and reservoir evaluation; and a bibliography. Additional detailed data, results, and data file references are given on microfiche in several appendices.

  7. OSTIblog Articles in the administrative interval Topic | OSTI, US Dept of

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information administrative interval Topic Accepted Manuscript Submissions for DOE PAGES(Beta) Officially Start October 1, 2014 by Judy Gilmore 01 Oct, 2014 in On August 4, 2014, the Department of Energy (DOE) launched the DOE Public Access Gateway for Energy and ScienceBeta (DOE PAGESBeta), a portal and search engine that makes scholarly scientific publications resulting from DOE research funding publicly accessible and searchable at no charge to

  8. A simple way to improve path consistency processing in interval algebra networks

    SciTech Connect

    Bessiere, C.

    1996-12-31

    Reasoning about qualitative temporal information is essential in many artificial intelligence problems. In particular, many tasks can be solved using the interval-based temporal algebra introduced by Allen (A1183). In this framework, one of the main tasks is to compute the transitive closure of a network of relations between intervals (also called path consistency in a CSP-like terminology). Almost all previous path consistency algorithms proposed in the temporal reasoning literature were based on the constraint reasoning algorithms PC-1 and PC-2 (Mac77). In this paper, we first show that the most efficient of these algorithms is the one which stays the closest to PC-2. Afterwards, we propose a new algorithm, using the idea {open_quotes}one support is sufficient{close_quotes} (as AC-3 (Mac77) does for arc consistency in constraint networks). Actually, to apply this idea, we simply changed the way composition-intersection of relations was achieved during the path consistency process in previous algorithms.

  9. Sequence stratigraphy and depositional facies of the Silurian-Devonian interval of the northern Permian basin

    SciTech Connect

    Canter, K.L.; Geesaman, R.C. ); Wheeler, D. )

    1992-04-01

    The Silurian and Devonian intervals of the northern Central Basin platform area of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico include the Fusselman, Wristen, and Thirtyone formations and the Woodford Shale. The carbonate-rich Fusselman, Wristen, and Thirtyone formations record a transition from ramp to platform deposition. Oolite grainstones of the lower Fusselman Formation were deposited in a ramp setting during an Upper Ordovician/Lower Silurian transgression. The overlying crinoid packstones and grainstones represent shoals that developed along a break in slope separating the evolving platform from a southward-dipping starved basin. By the close of Fusselman deposition, the platform was well developed, with shallow peridtidal mudstones and wackestones, and high-energy grainstones deposited as near-parallel facies tracts over the platform area. The platform system became fully developed during the deposition of the Wristen Formation. Porous dolomitic peridtidal and platform margin facies grade downdip into nonporous, limy and argillaceous open-shelf facies. Platform facies are typified by numerous shallowing-upward parasequences that terminated at subaerial exposure surfaces. The rocks of the Lower Devonian Thirtyone Formation were deposited as a wedge that onlaps the exposed Silurian platform margin. This formation contains a porous, chert-rich, lowstand deposit; a transgressive disconformity; and variably porous, grain-rich highstand deposits representing an overall sea level rise. A major unconformity marks the contact between the karsted upper surface of the Thirtyone Formation and the overlying organic-rich, anoxic Woodford Shale.

  10. The Underground Test Area Project of the Nevada Test Site: Building Confidence in Groundwater Flow and Transport Models at Pahute Mesa Through Focused Characterization Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Pawloski, G A; Wurtz, J; Drellack, S L

    2009-12-29

    Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site contains about 8.0E+07 curies of radioactivity caused by underground nuclear testing. The Underground Test Area Subproject has entered Phase II of data acquisition, analysis, and modeling to determine the risk to receptors from radioactivity in the groundwater, establish a groundwater monitoring network, and provide regulatory closure. Evaluation of radionuclide contamination at Pahute Mesa is particularly difficult due to the complex stratigraphy and structure caused by multiple calderas in the Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field and overprinting of Basin and Range faulting. Included in overall Phase II goals is the need to reduce the uncertainty and improve confidence in modeling results. New characterization efforts are underway, and results from the first year of a three-year well drilling plan are presented.

  11. Multi-cluster processor operating only select number of clusters during each phase based on program statistic monitored at predetermined intervals

    DOEpatents

    Balasubramonian, Rajeev; Dwarkadas, Sandhya; Albonesi, David

    2009-02-10

    In a processor having multiple clusters which operate in parallel, the number of clusters in use can be varied dynamically. At the start of each program phase, the configuration option for an interval is run to determine the optimal configuration, which is used until the next phase change is detected. The optimum instruction interval is determined by starting with a minimum interval and doubling it until a low stability factor is reached.

  12. ARM: X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (XSACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    SciTech Connect

    Dan Nelson; Joseph Hardin; Iosif Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Nitin Bharadwaj

    2011-09-14

    X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (XSACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  13. ARM: W-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Joseph Hardin; Dan Nelson; Iosif (Andrei) Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Alyssa Matthews; Nitin Bharadwaj

    1990-01-01

    W-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  14. ARM: Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    SciTech Connect

    Joseph Hardin; Dan Nelson; Iosif Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Alyssa Matthews; Nitin Bharadwaj

    2011-05-24

    Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  15. ARM: X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (XSACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Dan Nelson; Joseph Hardin; Iosif (Andrei) Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Nitin Bharadwaj

    X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (XSACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  16. ARM: W-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Dan Nelson; Joseph Hardin; Iosif (Andrei) Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Nitin Bharadwaj

    W-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (W-SACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scans (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  17. ARM: Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Dan Nelson; Joseph Hardin; Iosif (Andrei) Lindenmaier; Bradley Isom; Karen Johnson; Nitin Bharadwaj

    Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) Hemispherical Sky RHI Scan (6 horizon-to-horizon scans at 30-degree azimuth intervals)

  18. Interval Between Hysterectomy and Start of Radiation Treatment Is Predictive of Recurrence in Patients With Endometrial Carcinoma

    SciTech Connect

    Cattaneo, Richard; Hanna, Rabbie K.; Jacobsen, Gordon; Elshaikh, Mohamed A.

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: Adjuvant radiation therapy (RT) has been shown to improve local control in patients with endometrial carcinoma. We analyzed the impact of the time interval between hysterectomy and RT initiation in patients with endometrial carcinoma. Methods and Materials: In this institutional review board-approved study, we identified 308 patients with endometrial carcinoma who received adjuvant RT after hysterectomy. All patients had undergone hysterectomy, oophorectomy, and pelvic and para-aortic lymph node evaluation from 1988 to 2010. Patients' demographics, pathologic features, and treatments were compared. The time interval between hysterectomy and the start of RT was calculated. The effects of time interval on recurrence-free (RFS), disease-specific (DSS), and overall survival (OS) were calculated. Following univariate analysis, multivariate modeling was performed. Results: The median age and follow-up for the study cohort was 65 years and 72 months, respectively. Eighty-five percent of the patients had endometrioid carcinoma. RT was delivered with high-dose-rate brachytherapy alone (29%), pelvic RT alone (20%), or both (51%). Median time interval to start RT was 42 days (range, 21-130 days). A total of 269 patients (74%) started their RT <9 weeks after undergoing hysterectomy (group 1) and 26% started ≥9 weeks after surgery (group 2). There were a total of 43 recurrences. Tumor recurrence was significantly associated with treatment delay of ≥9 weeks, with 5-year RFS of 90% for group 1 compared to only 39% for group 2 (P<.001). On multivariate analysis, RT delay of ≥9 weeks (P<.001), presence of lymphovascular space involvement (P=.001), and higher International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics grade (P=.012) were independent predictors of recurrence. In addition, RT delay of ≥9 weeks was an independent significant predictor for worse DSS and OS (P=.001 and P=.01, respectively). Conclusions: Delay in administering adjuvant RT after hysterectomy was

  19. Regional localization of 64 cosmid contigs, including 18 genes and 14 markers, to intervals on human chromosome 9q34

    SciTech Connect

    Woodward, K.; Nahmias, J.; Povey, S.

    1995-09-01

    A fluorescence in situ hybridization map of distal human chromosome 9q has been produced by mapping cosmid clones to metaphase chromosomes with balanced reciprocal translocations. This is a very accurate method of mapping, as clones are localized by their position with respect to the breakpoint in addition to cytogenetic banding. By using three lymphoblastoid cell lines with translocation breakpoints within 9q34, we have localized 18 genes and 14 DNA markers to one of four intervals on the chromosome. Cosmid contigs exist around 16 of these genes and 12 of these markers. A further 43 contigs have also been mapped, but they are as yet anonymous. 13 refs., 2 figs.

  20. VALIDATION OF SPRING OPERATED PRESSURE RELIEF VALVE TIME TO FAILURE AND THE IMPORTANCE OF STATISTICALLY SUPPORTED MAINTENANCE INTERVALS

    SciTech Connect

    Gross, R; Stephen Harris, S

    2009-02-18

    The Savannah River Site operates a Relief Valve Repair Shop certified by the National Board of Pressure Vessel Inspectors to NB-23, The National Board Inspection Code. Local maintenance forces perform inspection, testing, and repair of approximately 1200 spring-operated relief valves (SORV) each year as the valves are cycled in from the field. The Site now has over 7000 certified test records in the Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS); a summary of that data is presented in this paper. In previous papers, several statistical techniques were used to investigate failure on demand and failure rates including a quantal response method for predicting the failure probability as a function of time in service. The non-conservative failure mode for SORV is commonly termed 'stuck shut'; industry defined as the valve opening at greater than or equal to 1.5 times the cold set pressure. Actual time to failure is typically not known, only that failure occurred some time since the last proof test (censored data). This paper attempts to validate the assumptions underlying the statistical lifetime prediction results using Monte Carlo simulation. It employs an aging model for lift pressure as a function of set pressure, valve manufacturer, and a time-related aging effect. This paper attempts to answer two questions: (1) what is the predicted failure rate over the chosen maintenance/ inspection interval; and do we understand aging sufficient enough to estimate risk when basing proof test intervals on proof test results?

  1. Eliminating livelock by assigning the same priority state to each message that is inputted into a flushable routing system during N time intervals

    DOEpatents

    Faber, Vance

    1994-01-01

    Livelock-free message routing is provided in a network of interconnected nodes that is flushable in time T. An input message processor generates sequences of at least N time intervals, each of duration T. An input register provides for receiving and holding each input message, where the message is assigned a priority state p during an nth one of the N time intervals. At each of the network nodes a message processor reads the assigned priority state and awards priority to messages with priority state (p-1) during an nth time interval and to messages with priority state p during an (n+1) th time interval. The messages that are awarded priority are output on an output path toward the addressed output message processor. Thus, no message remains in the network for a time longer than T.

  2. Eliminating livelock by assigning the same priority state to each message that is input into a flushable routing system during N time intervals

    DOEpatents

    Faber, V.

    1994-11-29

    Livelock-free message routing is provided in a network of interconnected nodes that is flushable in time T. An input message processor generates sequences of at least N time intervals, each of duration T. An input register provides for receiving and holding each input message, where the message is assigned a priority state p during an nth one of the N time intervals. At each of the network nodes a message processor reads the assigned priority state and awards priority to messages with priority state (p-1) during an nth time interval and to messages with priority state p during an (n+1) th time interval. The messages that are awarded priority are output on an output path toward the addressed output message processor. Thus, no message remains in the network for a time longer than T. 4 figures.

  3. An Efficient Format for Nearly Constant-Time Access to Arbitrary Time Intervals in Large Trace Files

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Chan, Anthony; Gropp, William; Lusk, Ewing

    2008-01-01

    A powerful method to aid in understanding the performance of parallel applications uses log or trace files containing time-stamped events and states (pairs of events). These trace files can be very large, often hundreds or even thousands of megabytes. Because of the cost of accessing and displaying such files, other methods are often used that reduce the size of the tracefiles at the cost of sacrificing detail or other information. This paper describes a hierarchical trace file format that provides for display of an arbitrary time window in a time independent of the total size of the file andmore » roughly proportional to the number of events within the time window. This format eliminates the need to sacrifice data to achieve a smaller trace file size (since storage is inexpensive, it is necessary only to make efficient use of bandwidth to that storage). The format can be used to organize a trace file or to create a separate file of annotations that may be used with conventional trace files. We present an analysis of the time to access all of the events relevant to an interval of time and we describe experiments demonstrating the performance of this file format.« less

  4. Location of the spinal cerebellar ataxia 2 locus to a 1 cM interval on chromsome 12q23-24.1

    SciTech Connect

    Allotey, R.; Twells, R.; Orozco, G.

    1994-09-01

    Spinocerebellar ataxia 2 (SCA2) is a dominantly inherited neurodegenerative disorder characterised by progressive ataxia, dysarthria, dysmetria and dysdiadochokinesia. We have previously assigned the disease locus to chromosome 12q23-24.1 in a population from the Holguin province, Cuba, within a 31 cM interval flanked by the anonymous marker D12S53 and the phospholipase A2 gene (PLA2). Clinical as much as genealogical and geographical evidence indicate that the Cuban pedigrees are homogeneous and descend from a common ancestor. We now report fine genetic mapping of the disease locus with fourteen microsatellite loci known to span this region, which positions SCA2 in a 1 cM interval defined by the loci D12S84-AFM291xe9. Observation of a common haplotype segregating with the disease supports the existence of a founder effect in the Holguin pedigrees.

  5. Standards Increase Market Confidence in SSL Performance

    SciTech Connect

    2013-09-30

    Fact sheet that reviews current and future SSL standards developed by DOE and other standards-setting organizations to effectively measure and characterize SSL lighting products.

  6. Time Interval From Breast-Conserving Surgery to Breast Irradiation in Early Stage Node-Negative Breast Cancer: 17-Year Follow-Up Results and Patterns of Recurrence

    SciTech Connect

    Vujovic, Olga; Yu, Edward; Cherian, Anil; Dar, A. Rashid; Stitt, Larry; Perera, Francisco

    2015-02-01

    Purpose: A retrospectivechart review was conducted to determine whether the time interval from breast-conserving surgery to breast irradiation (surgery-radiation therapy interval) in early stage node-negative breast cancer had any detrimental effects on recurrence rates. Methods and Materials: There were 566 patients with T1 to T3, N0 breast cancer treated with breast-conserving surgery and breast irradiation and without adjuvant systemic treatment between 1985 and 1992. The surgery-to-radiation therapy intervals used for analysis were 0 to 8 weeks (201 patients), >8 to 12 weeks (233 patients), >12 to 16 weeks (91 patients), and >16 weeks (41 patients). Kaplan-Meier estimates of time to local recurrence, disease-free survival, distant disease-free survival, cause-specific survival, and overall survival rates were calculated. Results: Median follow-up was 17.4 years. Patients in all 4 time intervals were similar in terms of characteristics and pathologic features. There were no statistically significant differences among the 4 time groups in local recurrence (P=.67) or disease-free survival (P=.82). The local recurrence rates at 5, 10, and 15 years were 4.9%, 11.5%, and 15.0%, respectively. The distant disease relapse rates at 5, 10, and 15 years were 10.6%, 15.4%, and 18.5%, respectively. The disease-free failure rates at 5, 10, and 15 years were 20%, 32.3%, and 39.8%, respectively. Cause-specific survival rates at 5, 10, and 15 years were 92%, 84.6%, and 79.8%, respectively. The overall survival rates at 5, 10, and 15 years were 89.3%, 79.2%, and 66.9%, respectively. Conclusions: Surgery-radiation therapy intervals up to 16 weeks from breast-conserving surgery are not associated with any increased risk of recurrence in early stage node-negative breast cancer. There is a steady local recurrence rate of 1% per year with adjuvant radiation alone.

  7. INTERVALS OF RADIAL INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS AT 1 AU, THEIR ASSOCIATION WITH RAREFACTION REGIONS, AND THEIR APPARENT MAGNETIC FOOT POINTS AT THE SUN

    SciTech Connect

    Orlove, Steven T.; Smith, Charles W.; Vasquez, Bernard J.; Schwadron, Nathan A.; Skoug, Ruth M.; Zurbuchen, Thomas H.; Zhao Liang E-mail: Charles.Smith@unh.edu E-mail: N.Schwadron@unh.edu E-mail: thomasz@umich.edu

    2013-09-01

    We have examined 226 intervals of nearly radial interplanetary magnetic field orientations at 1 AU lasting in excess of 6 hr. They are found within rarefaction regions as are the previously reported high-latitude observations. We show that these rarefactions typically do not involve high-speed wind such as that seen by Ulysses at high latitudes during solar minimum. We have examined both the wind speeds and the thermal ion composition before, during and after the rarefaction in an effort to establish the source of the flow that leads to the formation of the rarefaction. We find that the bulk of the measurements, both fast- and slow-wind intervals, possess both wind speeds and thermal ion compositions that suggest they come from typical low-latitude sources that are nominally considered slow-wind sources. In other words, we find relatively little evidence of polar coronal hole sources even when we examine the faster wind ahead of the rarefaction regions. While this is in contrast to high-latitude observations, we argue that this is to be expected of low-latitude observations where polar coronal hole sources are less prevalent. As with the previous high-latitude observations, we contend that the best explanation for these periods of radial magnetic field is interchange reconnection between two sources of different wind speed.

  8. EVALUATION OF SPRING OPERATED RELIEF VALVE MAINTENANCE INTERVALS AND EXTENSION OF MAINTENANCE TIMES USING A WEIBULL ANALYSIS WITH MODIFIED BAYESIAN UPDATING

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, S.; Gross, R.; Mitchell, E.

    2011-01-18

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) spring operated pressure relief valve (SORV) maintenance intervals were evaluated using an approach provided by the American Petroleum Institute (API RP 581) for risk-based inspection technology (RBI). In addition, the impact of extending the inspection schedule was evaluated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The API RP 581 approach is characterized as a Weibull analysis with modified Bayesian updating provided by SRS SORV proof testing experience. Initial Weibull parameter estimates were updated as per SRS's historical proof test records contained in the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) Process Equipment Reliability Database (PERD). The API RP 581 methodology was used to estimate the SORV's probability of failing on demand (PFD), and the annual expected risk. The API RP 581 methodology indicates that the current SRS maintenance plan is conservative. Cost savings may be attained in certain mild service applications that present low PFD and overall risk. Current practices are reviewed and recommendations are made for extending inspection intervals. The paper gives an illustration of the inspection costs versus the associated risks by using API RP 581 Risk Based Inspection (RBI) Technology. A cost effective maintenance frequency balancing both financial risk and inspection cost is demonstrated.

  9. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    CMEs Globex on September 5, 2006. Prior to that, NYMEX offered the financially-settled standard-sized and NYMEX miNY energy futures contracts for trading on the Globex on June...

  10. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    CMEs Globex on September 5, 2006. Prior to that, NYMEX offered the financially-settled standard-sized and NYMEX miNY energy futures contracts for trading on the Globex on June...

  11. Frequent-Interval Seismic CPTu

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Former Chrysler Plant Changes Gears to Solar Former Chrysler Plant Changes Gears to Solar October 4, 2010 - 10:00am Addthis Workers at Abound Solar -- who are about to get more than 1,000 new colleagues -- make a thin-film solar panel. | Photo courtesy of Abound Solar Workers at Abound Solar -- who are about to get more than 1,000 new colleagues -- make a thin-film solar panel. | Photo courtesy of Abound Solar Lorelei Laird Writer, Energy Empowers What are the key facts? Abound's factories is

  12. The Effect of Dose-Volume Parameters and Interfraction Interval on Cosmetic Outcome and Toxicity After 3-Dimensional Conformal Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation

    SciTech Connect

    Leonard, Kara Lynne; Hepel, Jaroslaw T.; Hiatt, Jessica R.; Dipetrillo, Thomas A.; Price, Lori Lyn; Wazer, David E.

    2013-03-01

    Purpose: To evaluate dose-volume parameters and the interfraction interval (IFI) as they relate to cosmetic outcome and normal tissue effects of 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) for accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI). Methods and Materials: Eighty patients were treated by the use of 3D-CRT to deliver APBI at our institutions from 2003-2010 in strict accordance with the specified dose-volume constraints outlined in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project B39/Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0413 (NSABP-B39/RTOG 0413) protocol. The prescribed dose was 38.5 Gy in 10 fractions delivered twice daily. Patients underwent follow-up with assessment for recurrence, late toxicity, and overall cosmetic outcome. Tests for association between toxicity endpoints and dosimetric parameters were performed with the chi-square test. Univariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of interfraction interval (IFI) with these outcomes. Results: At a median follow-up time of 32 months, grade 2-4 and grade 3-4 subcutaneous fibrosis occurred in 31% and 7.5% of patients, respectively. Subcutaneous fibrosis improved in 5 patients (6%) with extended follow-up. Fat necrosis developed in 11% of women, and cosmetic outcome was fair/poor in 19%. The relative volume of breast tissue receiving 5%, 20%, 50%, 80%, and 100% (V5-V100) of the prescribed dose was associated with risk of subcutaneous fibrosis, and the volume receiving 50%, 80%, and 100% (V50-V100) was associated with fair/poor cosmesis. The mean IFI was 6.9 hours, and the minimum IFI was 6.2 hours. The mean and minimum IFI values were not significantly associated with late toxicity. Conclusions: The incidence of moderate to severe late toxicity, particularly subcutaneous fibrosis and fat necrosis and resulting fair/poor cosmesis, remains high with continued follow-up. These toxicity endpoints are associated with several dose-volume parameters. Minimum and mean IFI values were

  13. Measurement of the 2 sup 2 S sub 1/2 -2 sup 2 P sub 3/2 fine structure interval in muonium

    SciTech Connect

    Kettell, S.H.

    1990-08-01

    The (2{sup 2}S{sub 1/2} {minus} 2{sup 2}P{sub 3/2}) fine structure transition in muonium has been observed for the first time. The measured value is 9895 {sub {minus}30}{sup {plus}35}MHz. This measurement, when included with the theoretical value for the 2{sup 2}P{sub 1/2} {minus} 2{sup 2}P{sub 3/2} fine structure interval, gives a value for the Lamb shift (2{sup 2}S{sub 1/2} {minus} 2{sup 2}P{sub 1/2}) independent of previous direct measurements. From the theoretical value for the fine structure interval, 10921.833(3) MHz, the value for the Lamb shift determined from this experiment is 1027{sub {minus}35}{sup {plus}30} MHz and is in agreement with the prediction of quantum electrodynamics (QED) of 1047.5(3) MHz. Previous experimental values for the Lamb shift (2{sup 2}S{sub 1/2} {minus}2{sup 2}P{sub 1/2}) in muonium are 1070{sub {minus}15}{sup {plus} 12} MHz and 1042{sub {minus}23}{sup {plus}21} MHz. Combining this result with these previous results gives a new experimental value of 1058{sub {minus}12}{sup {plus}10} for the Lamb shift in muonium. Muonium, the bound state of two structureless leptons ({mu}{sup +}e{sup {minus}}), is an ideal system for testing bound state QED because of the lack of hadronic structure as exists in the hydrogen system. The measurement makes use of the techniques of atomic beam microwave spectroscopy. Muonium atoms ({mu}{sup +}e{sup {minus}}) in the 2S states are produced by the beam-foil technique at the Clinton P. Anderson Meson Physics Facility with a low momentum, sub-surface muon beam. A variable frequency microwave field is applied to drive the atoms from the 2S to the 2P states, with the subsequent observation of the Lyman alpha photon from the decay of the 2P state to the 1S ground state. The frequency is varied from 9.0--11.0 GHz, driving the F = 0 {yields} F = 1, F = 1, F = 1 and F = 1 {yields} F = 2 transitions.

  14. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected ...

  15. Code verification and confidence-building (Technical Report)...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Research Org: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Sponsoring Org: DOELANL Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: Environmental Sciences(54); ...

  16. Code verification and confidence-building (Technical Report)...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Authors: Keating, Elizabeth H. 1 ; Sun, Yunwei 2 ; Dai, Zhenxue 1 ; Zheng, Liange 3 ; Bacon, Diana 4 + Show Author Affiliations Los Alamos National Laboratory Lawrence ...

  17. Increasing Confidence In Geothermal Heat Pump Design Methods...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... rate in the ground heat exchangers, allowed us to determine the thermal properties of the soil formation being experienced by the operating GHP system. Outputs from the models ...

  18. THRA1 and D17S183 flank an interval of <4 cM for the breast-ovarian cancer gene (BRCA1) on chromosome 17q21

    SciTech Connect

    Bowcock, A.M.; Osborne-Lawrence, S. ); Anderson, L.A.; Friedman, L.S.; Rowell, S.E.; Hall, J.M.; King, M.C. ); Black, D.M.; Solomon, E. )

    1993-04-01

    In order to pinpoint the locale of the gene for early-onset familial breast and ovarian cancer (BRCA1), polymorphisms were developed within the locus for thyroid hormone receptor alpha (THRA1) and for several anonymous sequences at chromosome 17q12-q21. The THRA1 polymorphism is a dinucleotide repeat with 10 alleles and heterozygosity .79. Gene mapping in extended families with inherited, early-onset breast and ovarian cancer indicates that BRCA1 is distal to THRA1 and proximal to D17S183 (SCG43), an interval of <4 cM. This locale excludes HER2, THRA1, WNT3, HOX2, NGFR, PHB, COLIA1, NME1, and NME2 as candidates for BRCA1 but does not exclude RARA or EDH17B. Resolving the remaining recombination events in these families by new polymorphisms in the THRA1-D17S183 interval will facilitate positional cloning of the breast-ovarian cancer gene on chromosome 17q12-q21. 16 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    of 8 percent. The settlement price of the NYMEX futures contract for September delivery gained 37-plus cents on Wednesday in response to the AGA storage report, then...

  20. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Upward pressure on prices at the NYMEX also appears related to concerns over events in Japan that could affect energy markets. Japan, the worlds largest liquefied natural gas...

  1. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Upward pressure on prices at the NYMEX also appears related to concerns over events in Japan that could affect energy markets. Japan, the worlds largest liquefied natural gas...

  2. This Week In Petroleum Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    and subsequent increase in WTI prices reflects localized supply conditions at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for the NYMEX Light, Sweet Crude Oil Contract. Storage at Cushing is...

  3. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices also increased this week in tandem with the crude oil prices. The natural gas futures contract for delivery in June...

  4. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), futures prices also increased this week in tandem with the crude oil prices. The natural gas futures contract for delivery in June...

  5. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    the country, which results in smaller differences between prices there and in the Gulf of Mexico region. Futures prices increased at the NYMEX, likely because of continued wintry...

  6. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    the country, which results in smaller differences between prices there and in the Gulf of Mexico region. Futures prices increased at the NYMEX, likely because of continued wintry...

  7. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    implied volatility of 28 percent calculated from New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) near-the-money options on WTI futures (see Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). ...

  8. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Market Trends). NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Near-Month Contract Settlement Price, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price, and Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price Graph More...

  9. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Figure 1: Evolution of WTI futures contracts dollars per barrel Contract month Intermonth ... (Figure 3). The NYMEX WTI futures contract delivers at Cushing, which is why market ...

  10. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    19, 2001 Last week, the NYMEX futures contract price for December delivery at the Henry Hub continued the generally downward trend that began in late October. The contract...

  11. 2007 CBECS Large Hospital Building FAQs: 2003-2007 Comparison Graphs

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    FAQs: 2003-2007 Comparison Graphs Main Report | Methodology | FAQ | List of Tables CBECS 2007 - Release date: August 17, 2012 Jump to: Figure 1 | Figure 2 | Figure 3 | Figure 4 | Figure 5 Figure 1 Number of Large Hospital Buildings and 95% Confidence Intervals by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Figure 2 Total Floorspace and 95% Confidence Intervals in Large Hospital Buildings by Census Region, 2003 and 2007 Figure 3 Major Fuel Intensity and 95% Confidence Intervals by Census Region, 2003 and 2007

  12. This Week In Petroleum Summary Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    averaged 33%. These levels established the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectations of monthly average WTI prices in September...

  13. PowerPoint Presentation

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... Extended calibration intervals and relief of even limited periodic assessment requirements Assessment of sensor measurement accuracy with high confidence Derived values for ...

  14. Slide 1

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Sensor Health Greater operator confidence in validity of reading Maintenance ... of stretching sensor re-calibration intervals Decreased maintenance and capital-costs ...

  15. Energy Conservation Program: Test Procedures for High-Intensity...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... To better represent differences in manufacturing variability between HID lamp types, DOE revises its proposed confidence intervals in this SNOPR (as discussed in section ...

  16. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    per MMBtu. Daily settlement prices on the NYMEX also moved up most of the week before dropping almost 0.18 per MMBtu on Friday as the near-month August contract ended the week at...

  17. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    seemed sufficient to avoid the price declines. The NYMEX futures contract for June delivery at the Henry Hub expired yesterday (May 29) at 3.42 per MMBtu. The spot price for...

  18. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    demand for gas, which spurred the price hikes. The NYMEX futures contract for July delivery at the Henry Hub expired yesterday (June 26) at 3.278 per MMBtu, falling over 17...

  19. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    and in northern California continued to be soft as PG&E projected that linepack would stay at its present high level. On the NYMEX, the near-month contract for May delivery,...

  20. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    and in northern California continued to be soft as PG&E projected that linepack would stay at its present high level. On the NYMEX, the near-month contract for May delivery,...

  1. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    dropped 21 cents per MMBtu on the week to 6.38. At the NYMEX, the May 2005 contract lost 58 cents per MMBtu on the week, settling at 6.978 yesterday. As was the case with...

  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Annual Energy Outlook

    week. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the December 2012 natural gas contract lost 11 cents per MMBtu to close at 3.578 per MMBtu yesterday. Working natural gas in...

  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Annual Energy Outlook

    week. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the January 2012 natural gas contract lost 31.8 cents per MMBtu overall to close at 3.382 per MMBtu yesterday. Working natural...

  4. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    dropped 21 cents per MMBtu on the week to 6.38. At the NYMEX, the May 2005 contract lost 58 cents per MMBtu on the week, settling at 6.978 yesterday. As was the case with...

  5. This Week In Petroleum Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is the light, sweet crude oil traded at the Cushing, OK delivery point for the NYMEX futures contract. Any premium on light, sweet crude oils...

  6. This Week In Petroleum Summary Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    versus Brent have generally been associated with a buildup in inventories at Cushing, OK, the delivery point of the NYMEX crude futures contract. It was thus not surprising that...

  7. Microsoft Word - Price Uncertainty Supplement.doc

    Annual Energy Outlook

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) near-the-money options on WTI futures (see Energy Price ... calculated from near-the-money options were 3.57 and 6.39 per MMBtu, respectively. ...

  8. Microsoft PowerPoint - uncertainty_past_wti.ppt [Compatibility...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    January 2015 - June 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook 1 Historical WTI price and 95% NYMEX ... Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017 2 Historical WTI ...

  9. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    (MMBtu) on October 26. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the November 2011 natural gas contract rose just under half a cent per MMBtu for the week to close at 3.590...

  10. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    (MMBtu) on October 26. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the November 2011 natural gas contract rose just under half a cent per MMBtu for the week to close at 3.590...

  11. EIA - Daily Report 9/27/05 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil &...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... (NYMEX), where futures contracts are traded for delivery to the Henry Hub, has declared a Force Majeure for deliveries under the September contract for the rest of the month. ...

  12. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    fell as cold weather abated, the February 2014 Nymex appeared to ignore spot market fundamentals and continued to rise, expiring yesterday at 5.557MMBtu. Prices spiked in the...

  13. Rick's Grph.xlsx

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ENTERGY ENTERGY ENTERGY YEARLY ON PEAK SATSUN 7 NIGHTS NYMEX GASys a Year On Peak)y - ... Working Days a Year On Peak) ENTERGY SATSUN ON PEAK (Based on 115 Saturday - Sundays a ...

  14. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    as well as by outages of a number of nuclear-fired electric plants for routine maintenance. On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for October delivery...

  15. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    as well as by outages of a number of nuclear-fired electric plants for routine maintenance. On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for October delivery...

  16. This Week In Petroleum Summary Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    market has flattened the Nymex heating oil futures curve. For 2012 and 2013, on trading days from June through August, the average spread between the first contract and the...

  17. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the August 2011 natural gas contract price also lost ground over the week, closing at 4.315 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The natural gas rotary rig...

  18. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the August 2011 natural gas contract price also lost ground over the week, closing at 4.217 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The natural gas rotary rig...

  19. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the August 2011 natural gas contract price also lost ground over the week, closing at 4.217 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The natural gas rotary rig...

  20. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the August 2011 natural gas contract price also lost ground over the week, closing at 4.315 per MMBtu on Wednesday. The natural gas rotary rig...

  1. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Map) (See Deviation from Normal Temperatures Map) The spot market price at the Henry Hub in Louisiana ended the week down 62 cents at 2.15 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX futures...

  2. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    between 29 and 77 cents per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 40 cents or roughly 9 percent to 3.93 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  3. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    most production-area trading locations. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), the average Henry Hub price climbed 0.14 per MMBtu to 4.24. At the NYMEX, the futures contract for...

  4. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Lower 48 States in trading on June 4. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 70 cents or about 12 percent to 6.41 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  5. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    between 10 and 50 cents per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 19 cents or roughly 5 percent to 4.10 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  6. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    week's gas markets. As of Friday, May 11, 2001, the spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub dropped 0.24 from the previous Friday to 4.25 per MMBtu. The NYMEX price of...

  7. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub edged up 1 cent, to 7.40 per MMBtu. Yesterday (June 22), the price of the NYMEX...

  8. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    48 States in trading on June 25. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 10 cents or about 2 percent to 5.64 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  9. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    48 States in trading on July 30. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 19 cents or about 4 percent to 4.69 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  10. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    18 with sharp decreases that reversed gains from earlier in the week. Prices at the Henry Hub declined 2 cents per MMBtu compared with the previous Friday. On the NYMEX, the...

  11. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wednesday, February 4. On the week (Wednesday, February 4-Wednesday, February 11), the Henry Hub spot price dropped 39 cents per MMBtu to 5.35. The NYMEX futures contract for...

  12. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    26, 2006. For the week (Wednesday, April 26 to Wednesday, May 3), the spot price at the Henry Hub decreased 62 cents, or about 9 percent, to 6.56 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX...

  13. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    locations in the Lower 48 States, while declining at selected markets. Prices at the Henry Hub declined a penny since Wednesday, March 28, to 7.46 per MMBtu. At the NYMEX, the...

  14. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Wyoming, dropped 6 cents to 1.40 per MMBtu this week. Prices at the Canadian-U.S. border at Sumas, Washington, moved up 3 cents to 1.57 per MMBtu. At the NYMEX, the futures...

  15. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Annual Energy Outlook

    California points were around 40 cents per MMBtu, while the Southern California Border average price declined by 14 cents to 3.12 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX, futures prices...

  16. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    *Avg. of NGI's reported avg. prices for: Malin, PG&E citygate, and Southern California Border Avg. Source: NGI's Daily Gas Price Index (http:intelligencepress.com). At the NYMEX,...

  17. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    California points were around 40 cents per MMBtu, while the Southern California Border average price declined by 14 cents to 3.12 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX, futures prices...

  18. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    trading locations traded above 2.50 per MMBtu, the vast majority of them delivering natural gas to the western markets. Spot Prices At the NYMEX, the price of the October 2009...

  19. Natural Gas Weekly Update

    Annual Energy Outlook

    (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub were virtually unchanged, climbing 1 cent, to 7.11 per MMBtu. Yesterday (April 27), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for...

  20. Natural Gas Weekly Update, Printer-Friendly Version

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub were virtually unchanged, climbing 1 cent, to 7.11 per MMBtu. Yesterday (April 27), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for...

  1. An Assessment of Interval Data and Their Potential Application...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    ... Petroleum Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Hydropower Biofuels: Ethanol & Biodiesel Wind Geothermal Solar ...

  2. Unstable AMOC during glacial intervals and millennial variability...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Number: NEK0059281; AGS-1405272; SC0007037; MESO-CLIP Type: Published Article Journal Name: Earth and Planetary Science Letters Additional Journal Information: Journal...

  3. Unstable AMOC during glacial intervals and millennial variability...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Florian; Fedorov, Alexey V. Elsevier None USDOE Netherlands 2015-11-01 English Journal Article Journal Name: Earth and Planetary Science Letters; Journal Volume: 429;...

  4. An Assessment of Interval Data and Their Potential Application...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... The data is then aggregated and sent to the cell relay, or the "take out" point. This ... What are your distribution channels? Majority of sales are made to solar installers, ...

  5. Frequent-Interval Seismic CPTu | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Framework for SCADA Security Policy (October 2005) Framework for SCADA Security Policy (October 2005) Modern automation systems used in infrastruc-ture (including Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition, or SCADA) have myriad security vulnerabilities. Many of these relate directly to inadequate security administration, which precludes truly effective and sustainable security. Adequate security management mandates a clear administrative struc-ture and enforcement hierarchy. The security policy

  6. Determining X-ray source intensity and confidence bounds in crowded fields

    SciTech Connect

    Primini, F. A.; Kashyap, V. L.

    2014-11-20

    We present a rigorous description of the general problem of aperture photometry in high-energy astrophysics photon-count images, in which the statistical noise model is Poisson, not Gaussian. We compute the full posterior probability density function for the expected source intensity for various cases of interest, including the important cases in which both source and background apertures contain contributions from the source, and when multiple source apertures partially overlap. A Bayesian approach offers the advantages of allowing one to (1) include explicit prior information on source intensities, (2) propagate posterior distributions as priors for future observations, and (3) use Poisson likelihoods, making the treatment valid in the low-counts regime. Elements of this approach have been implemented in the Chandra Source Catalog.

  7. New Prototype Safeguards Technology Offers Improved Confidence and Automation for Uranium Enrichment Facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Brim, Cornelia P.

    2013-04-01

    An important requirement for the international safeguards community is the ability to determine the enrichment level of uranium in gas centrifuge enrichment plants and nuclear fuel fabrication facilities. This is essential to ensure that countries with nuclear nonproliferation commitments, such as States Party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, are adhering to their obligations. However, current technologies to verify the uranium enrichment level in gas centrifuge enrichment plants or nuclear fuel fabrication facilities are technically challenging and resource-intensive. NNSA’s Office of Nonproliferation and International Security (NIS) supports the development, testing, and evaluation of future systems that will strengthen and sustain U.S. safeguards and security capabilities—in this case, by automating the monitoring of uranium enrichment in the entire inventory of a fuel fabrication facility. One such system is HEVA—hybrid enrichment verification array. This prototype was developed to provide an automated, nondestructive assay verification technology for uranium hexafluoride (UF6) cylinders at enrichment plants.

  8. Defining a Technical Basis for Confidence in PV Investments - A Pathway to Service Life Prediction (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Kurtz, S.; Wohlgemuth, J.; Kempe, M.; Bosco, N.; Hacke, P.; Jordan, D.; Miller, D.

    2013-09-01

    Four levels of accelerated test standards for PV modules are described in the context of how the community can most quickly begin using these.

  9. Geothermal reservoir simulation to enhance confidence in predictions for nuclear waste disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Pruess, Karsten; O'Sullivan, Michael J.; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

    2002-06-15

    Numerical simulation of geothermal reservoirs is useful and necessary in understanding and evaluating reservoir structure and behavior, designing field development, and predicting performance. Models vary in complexity depending on processes considered, heterogeneity, data availability, and study objectives. They are evaluated using computer codes written and tested to study single and multiphase flow and transport under nonisothermal conditions. Many flow and heat transfer processes modeled in geothermal reservoirs are expected to occur in anthropogenic thermal (AT) systems created by geologic disposal of heat-generating nuclear waste. We examine and compare geothermal systems and the AT system expected at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and their modeling. Time frames and spatial scales are similar in both systems, but increased precision is necessary for modeling the AT system, because flow through specific repository locations will affect long-term ability radionuclide retention. Geothermal modeling experience has generated a methodology, used in the AT modeling for Yucca Mountain, yielding good predictive results if sufficient reliable data are available and an experienced modeler is involved. Codes used in geothermal and AT modeling have been tested extensively and successfully on a variety of analytical and laboratory problems.

  10. Process for estimating likelihood and confidence in post detonation nuclear forensics.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.; Craft, Charles M.

    2014-07-01

    Technical nuclear forensics (TNF) must provide answers to questions of concern to the broader community, including an estimate of uncertainty. There is significant uncertainty associated with post-detonation TNF. The uncertainty consists of a great deal of epistemic (state of knowledge) as well as aleatory (random) uncertainty, and many of the variables of interest are linguistic (words) and not numeric. We provide a process by which TNF experts can structure their process for answering questions and provide an estimate of uncertainty. The process uses belief and plausibility, fuzzy sets, and approximate reasoning.

  11. New ITER head is confident the fusion energy project will succeed

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, David

    2015-05-15

    Bernard Bigot sees management of the seven-party international effort as a greater challenge than the technological demands.

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2016

    Annual Energy Outlook

    67b (at the 95% confidence interval) in October 2016. U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook July 2016 2 Global Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels EIA ...

  13. Uniform Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings and Increasing Electric Utility Confidence in Reported Savings Now Available

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has published protocols for estimating energy savings for residential and commercial energy efficiency programs and measures through the recently released “The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures.”

  14. An Evaluation of the Carbon Sequestration Potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Strata of the Illinois and Michigan Basins. Part 1. Evaluation of Phase 2 CO2 Injection Testing in the Deep Saline Gunter Sandstone Reservoir (Cambro-Ordovician Knox Group), Marvin Blan No. 1 Hancock County, Kentucky Part 2. Time-lapse Three-Dimensional Vertical Seismic Profile (3D-VSP) of Sequestration Target Interval with Injected Fluids

    SciTech Connect

    Bowersox, Richard; Hickman, John; Leetaru, Hannes

    2012-12-20

    Part 1 of this report focuses on results of the western Kentucky carbon storage test, and provides a basis for evaluating injection and storage of supercritical CO2 in Cambro-Ordovician carbonate reservoirs throughout the U.S. Midcontinent. This test demonstrated that the Cambro- Ordovician Knox Group, including the Beekmantown Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, and Copper Ridge Dolomite in stratigraphic succession from shallowest to deepest, had reservoir properties suitable for supercritical CO2 storage in a deep saline reservoir hosted in carbonate rocks, and that strata with properties sufficient for long-term confinement of supercritical CO2 were present in the deep subsurface. Injection testing with brine and CO2 was completed in two phases. The first phase, a joint project by the Kentucky Geological Survey and the Western Kentucky Carbon Storage Foundation, drilled the Marvin Blan No. 1 carbon storage research well and tested the entire Knox Group section in the open borehole – including the Beekmantown Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, and Copper Ridge Dolomite – at 1152–2255 m, below casing cemented at 1116 m. During Phase 1 injection testing, most of the 297 tonnes of supercritical CO2 was displaced into porous and permeable sections of the lowermost Beekmantown below 1463 m and Gunter. The wellbore was then temporarily abandoned with a retrievable bridge plug in casing at 1105 m and two downhole pressure-temperature monitoring gauges below the bridge plug pending subsequent testing. Pressure and temperature data were recorded every minute for slightly more than a year, providing a unique record of subsurface reservoir conditions in the Knox. In contrast, Phase 2 testing, this study, tested a mechanically-isolated dolomitic-sandstone interval in the Gunter.

  15. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9th Annual Kosciuszko Chair Conference November 12

    markets archive Dollars per short ton Dollars per mmbtu NYMEX coal futures Data for: 2004- Historical data . Note: No data available for Western PRB and Eastern CSX prior to 6/30/09.

  16. Fluctuation studies in the infinite interval matrix representations of operator products and their decompositions

    SciTech Connect

    Baykara, N. A.; Guervit, Ercan; Demiralp, Metin

    2012-12-10

    In this work a study on finite dimensional matrix approximations to products of quantum mechanical operators is conducted. It is emphasized that the matrix representation of the product of two operators is equal to the product of the matrix representation of each of the operators when all the fluctuation terms are ignored. The calculation of the elements of the matrices corresponding to the matrix representation of various operators, based on three terms recursive relation is defined. Finally it is shown that the approximation quality depends on the choice of higher values of n, namely the dimension of Hilbert space.

  17. Calibration Monitoring for Sensor Calibration Interval Extension: Gaps in the Current Science Base

    SciTech Connect

    Coble, Jamie B.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Meyer, Ryan M.; Hashemian, Hash; Shumaker, Brent; Cummins, Dara

    2012-10-09

    Currently in the United States, periodic sensor recalibration is required for all safety-related sensors, typically occurring at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration in some plants. International application of calibration monitoring has shown that sensors may operate for longer periods within calibration tolerances. This issue is expected to also be important as the United States looks to the next generation of reactor designs (such as small modular reactors and advanced concepts), given the anticipated longer refueling cycles, proposed advanced sensors, and digital instrumentation and control systems. Online monitoring (OLM) can be employed to identify those sensors that require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors that need it. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted the general concept of OLM for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no U.S. plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This paper summarizes a recent state-of-the-art assessment of online calibration monitoring in the nuclear power industry, including sensors, calibration practice, and OLM algorithms. This assessment identifies key research needs and gaps that prohibit integration of the NRC-approved online calibration monitoring system in the U.S. nuclear industry. Several technical needs were identified, including an understanding of the impacts of sensor degradation on measurements for both conventional and emerging sensors; the quantification of uncertainty in online calibration assessment; determination of calibration acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and assessment of the feasibility of using virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors in order to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity.

  18. A Review of Sensor Calibration Monitoring for Calibration Interval Extension in Nuclear Power Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Coble, Jamie B.; Meyer, Ryan M.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Hashemian, Hash; Shumaker, Brent; Cummins, Dara

    2012-08-31

    Currently in the United States, periodic sensor recalibration is required for all safety-related sensors, typically occurring at every refueling outage, and it has emerged as a critical path item for shortening outage duration in some plants. Online monitoring can be employed to identify those sensors that require calibration, allowing for calibration of only those sensors that need it. International application of calibration monitoring, such as at the Sizewell B plant in United Kingdom, has shown that sensors may operate for eight years, or longer, within calibration tolerances. This issue is expected to also be important as the United States looks to the next generation of reactor designs (such as small modular reactors and advanced concepts), given the anticipated longer refueling cycles, proposed advanced sensors, and digital instrumentation and control systems. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) accepted the general concept of online monitoring for sensor calibration monitoring in 2000, but no U.S. plants have been granted the necessary license amendment to apply it. This report presents a state-of-the-art assessment of online calibration monitoring in the nuclear power industry, including sensors, calibration practice, and online monitoring algorithms. This assessment identifies key research needs and gaps that prohibit integration of the NRC-approved online calibration monitoring system in the U.S. nuclear industry. Several needs are identified, including the quantification of uncertainty in online calibration assessment; accurate determination of calibration acceptance criteria and quantification of the effect of acceptance criteria variability on system performance; and assessment of the feasibility of using virtual sensor estimates to replace identified faulty sensors in order to extend operation to the next convenient maintenance opportunity. Understanding the degradation of sensors and the impact of this degradation on signals is key to developing technical basis to support acceptance criteria and set point decisions, particularly for advanced sensors which do not yet have a cumulative history of operating performance.

  19. Utica play, thickness map of the combined Utica - Point Pleasant interval

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

  20. A novel approach to determine post mortem interval using neutron radiography

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Bilheux, Hassina Z.; Cekanova, Maria; Vass, Arpad Alexander; Nichols, Trent L.; Bilheux, Jean -Christophe; Donnell, Robert; Finocchiaro, Vincenzo

    2015-03-06

    In this study, neutron radiography (NR) is used non-destructively to measure changes in hydrogen (H) content in decaying tissues as a mean to estimate post-mortem invertal (PMI). After death, tissue undergoes sequential changes consisting of organic and inorganic phase variations, as well as a gradual reduction of tissue water content. H is the primary contributor to NR contrast in biological specimens because (1) it is the most abundant element in biological tissues and (2) its nucleus scatter thermal and cold neutrons more strongly than any other atomic nucleus. These contrast differences can be advantageous in a forensic context to determinemore » small changes in hydrogen concentrations. Dog cadavers were used as a model for human cadavers. Canine tissues and cadavers were exposed to controlled (laboratory settings) and uncontrolled (University of Tennessee Anthropology Research Facility) environmental conditions during putefraction, respectively. Neutron radiographs were supplemented with photographs and histology data to assess the decomposition stage of cadavers. Results demonstrated that the increase in neutron transmission likely corresponded to a decrease in hydrogen content in the tissue, which was correlated with the time of decay of the tissue. Tissues depleted in hydrogen are brighter in the neutron transmission radiographs of skeletal muscles, lung, and bone, under controlled conditions. Over a period of 10 days, changes in neutron transmission through lung and muscle were found to be higher than bone by 8.3%, 7.0 %, and 2.0 %, respectively. Estimation of the PMI was calculated from a natural logarithmic fitting of the NR data. Under controlled conditions, estimation of the PMI was 70% and 63.9 % accurate for bone and lung tissues, while being 1.4% accurate for muscle tissue. All results underestimated the true PMI. In conclusion, neutron radiography can be used for detection of hydrogen changes in decaying tissues to estimate PMI.« less

  1. Analysis of well test data from selected intervals in Leuggern deep borehole

    SciTech Connect

    Karasaki, K. )

    1990-07-01

    Applicability of the PTST technique was verified by conducting a sensitivity study to the various parameters. The study showed that for ranges of skin parameters the true formation permeability was still successfully estimated using the PTST analysis technique. The analysis technique was then applied to field data from the deep borehole in Leuggern, Northern Switzerland. The analysis indicated that the formation permeability may be as much as one order of magnitude larger than the value based on no-skin analysis. Swabbing data from the Leuggern deep borehole were also analyzed assuming that they are constant pressure tests. The analysis of the swabbing data indicates that the formation transmissivity is as much as 20 times larger than the previously obtained value. This study is part of an investigation of the feasibility of geologic isolation of nuclear wastes being carried out by the US Department of Energy and the National Cooperative for the Storage of Radioactive Waste of Switzerland.

  2. A novel approach to determine post mortem interval using neutron radiography

    SciTech Connect

    Bilheux, Hassina Z; Cekanova, Maria; Vass, Arpad Alexander; Nichols, Trent L; Bilheux, Jean-Christophe; Donnell, Robert; Finocchiaro, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    In this study, neutron radiography (NR) is used non-destructively to measure changes in hydrogen (H) content in decaying tissues as a mean to estimate post-mortem invertal (PMI). After death, tissue undergoes sequential changes consisting of organic and inorganic phase variations, as well as a gradual reduction of tissue water content. H is the primary contributor to NR contrast in biological specimens because (1) it is the most abundant element in biological tissues and (2) its nucleus scatter thermal and cold neutrons more strongly than any other atomic nucleus. These contrast differences can be advantageous in a forensic context to determine small changes in hydrogen concentrations. Dog cadavers were used as a model for human cadavers. Canine tissues and cadavers were exposed to controlled (laboratory settings) and uncontrolled (University of Tennessee Anthropology Research Facility) environmental conditions during putefraction, respectively. Neutron radiographs were supplemented with photographs and histology data to assess the decomposition stage of cadavers. Results demonstrated that the increase in neutron transmission likely corresponded to a decrease in hydrogen content in the tissue, which was correlated with the time of decay of the tissue. Tissues depleted in hydrogen are brighter in the neutron transmission radiographs of skeletal muscles, lung, and bone, under controlled conditions. Over a period of 10 days, changes in neutron transmission through lung and muscle were found to be higher than bone by 8.3%, 7.0 %, and 2.0 %, respectively. Estimation of the PMI was calculated from a natural logarithmic fitting of the NR data. Under controlled conditions, estimation of the PMI was 70% and 63.9 % accurate for bone and lung tissues, while being 1.4% accurate for muscle tissue. All results underestimated the true PMI. In conclusion, neutron radiography can be used for detection of hydrogen changes in decaying tissues to estimate PMI.

  3. Registering coherent change detection products associated with large image sets and long capture intervals

    DOEpatents

    Perkins, David Nikolaus; Gonzales, Antonio I

    2014-04-08

    A set of co-registered coherent change detection (CCD) products is produced from a set of temporally separated synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of a target scene. A plurality of transformations are determined, which transformations are respectively for transforming a plurality of the SAR images to a predetermined image coordinate system. The transformations are used to create, from a set of CCD products produced from the set of SAR images, a corresponding set of co-registered CCD products.

  4. A novel approach to determine post mortem interval using neutron radiography

    SciTech Connect

    Bilheux, Hassina Z.; Cekanova, Maria; Vass, Arpad Alexander; Nichols, Trent L.; Bilheux, Jean -Christophe; Donnell, Robert; Finocchiaro, Vincenzo

    2015-03-06

    In this study, neutron radiography (NR) is used non-destructively to measure changes in hydrogen (H) content in decaying tissues as a mean to estimate post-mortem invertal (PMI). After death, tissue undergoes sequential changes consisting of organic and inorganic phase variations, as well as a gradual reduction of tissue water content. H is the primary contributor to NR contrast in biological specimens because (1) it is the most abundant element in biological tissues and (2) its nucleus scatter thermal and cold neutrons more strongly than any other atomic nucleus. These contrast differences can be advantageous in a forensic context to determine small changes in hydrogen concentrations. Dog cadavers were used as a model for human cadavers. Canine tissues and cadavers were exposed to controlled (laboratory settings) and uncontrolled (University of Tennessee Anthropology Research Facility) environmental conditions during putefraction, respectively. Neutron radiographs were supplemented with photographs and histology data to assess the decomposition stage of cadavers. Results demonstrated that the increase in neutron transmission likely corresponded to a decrease in hydrogen content in the tissue, which was correlated with the time of decay of the tissue. Tissues depleted in hydrogen are brighter in the neutron transmission radiographs of skeletal muscles, lung, and bone, under controlled conditions. Over a period of 10 days, changes in neutron transmission through lung and muscle were found to be higher than bone by 8.3%, 7.0 %, and 2.0 %, respectively. Estimation of the PMI was calculated from a natural logarithmic fitting of the NR data. Under controlled conditions, estimation of the PMI was 70% and 63.9 % accurate for bone and lung tissues, while being 1.4% accurate for muscle tissue. All results underestimated the true PMI. In conclusion, neutron radiography can be used for detection of hydrogen changes in decaying tissues to estimate PMI.

  5. File:Table for Tip Speed Intervals of Length.pdf | Open Energy...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    this file. Metadata This file contains additional information, probably added from the digital camera or scanner used to create or digitize it. If the file has been modified from...

  6. Hits per trial: Basic analysis of binomial data

    SciTech Connect

    Atwood, C.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report presents simple statistical methods for analyzing binomial data, such as the number of failures in some number of demands. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the failure probability. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the failure probability varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given.

  7. Events in time: Basic analysis of Poisson data

    SciTech Connect

    Engelhardt, M.E.

    1994-09-01

    The report presents basic statistical methods for analyzing Poisson data, such as the member of events in some period of time. It gives point estimates, confidence intervals, and Bayesian intervals for the rate of occurrence per unit of time. It shows how to compare subsets of the data, both graphically and by statistical tests, and how to look for trends in time. It presents a compound model when the rate of occurrence varies randomly. Examples and SAS programs are given.

  8. Statement of position of the United States Department of Energy in the matter of proposed rulemaking on the storage and disposal of nuclear waste (waste confidence rulemaking)

    SciTech Connect

    1980-04-15

    Purpose of this proceeding is to assess generically the degree of assurance that the radioactive waste can be safely disposed of, to determine when such disposal or off-site storage will be available, and to determine whether wastes can be safely stored on-site past license expiration until off-site disposal/storage is available. (DLC)

  9. AREVA NP next generation fresh UO{sub 2} fuel assembly shipping cask: SCALE - CRISTAL comparisons lead to safety criticality confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Doucet, M.; Landrieu, M.; Montgomery, R.; O' Donnell, B.

    2007-07-01

    AREVA NP as a worldwide PWR fuel provider has to have a fleet of fresh UO{sub 2} shipping casks being agreed within a lot of countries including USA, France, Germany, Belgium, Sweden, China, and South Africa - and to accommodate foreseen EPR Nuclear Power Plants fuel buildings. To reach this target the AREVA NP Fuel Sector decided to develop an up-to-date shipping cask (so called MAP project) gathering experience feedback of the today fleet and an improved safety allowing the design to comply with international regulations (NRC and IAEA) and local Safety Authorities. Based on pre design features a safety case was set up to highlight safety margins. Criticality hypothetical accidental assumptions were defined: - Preferential flooding; - Fuel rod lattice pitch expansion for full length of fuel assemblies; - Neutron absorber penalty; -... Well known computer codes, American SCALE package and French CRISTAL package, were used to check configurations reactivity and to ensure that both codes lead to coherent results. Basic spectral calculations are based on similar algorithms with specific microscopic cross sections ENDF/BV for SCALE and JEF2.2 for CRISTAL. The main differences between the two packages is on one hand SCALE's three dimensional fuel assembly geometry is described by a pin by pin model while an homogenized fuel assembly description is used by CRISTAL and on the other hand SCALE is working with either 44 or 238 neutron energy groups while CRISTAL is with a 172 neutron energy groups. Those two computer packages rely on a wide validation process helping defining uncertainties as required by regulations in force. The shipping cask with two fuel assemblies is designed to maximize fuel isolation inside a cask and with neighboring ones even for large array configuration cases. Proven industrial products are used: - Boral{sup TM} as neutron absorber; - High density polyethylene (HDPE) or Nylon as neutron moderator; - Foam as thermal and mechanical protection. The cask is designed to handle the complete AREVA NP fuel assembly types from the 14x14 to the 18x18 design with a {sup 235}U enrichment up to 5.0% enriched natural uranium (ENU) and enriched reprocessed uranium (ERU). After a brief presentation of the computer codes and the description of the shipping cask, calculation results and comparisons between SCALE and CRISTAL will be discussed. (authors)

  10. Stress perceptions of soldiers participating in training at the Chemical Defense Training Facility: The mediating effects of motivation, experience, and confidence level. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Fatkin, L.T.; Hudgens, G.A.

    1994-01-01

    An investigation was conducted by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) and funded by the Physiological and Psychological Effects of the Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical (NBC) Environment and Sustained Operations on Systems in Combat (P2NBC2) program to assess the psychological reactions of soldiers in mission-oriented protective posture (MOPP) IV participating in training in a simulated chemical agent environment and in a toxic agent environment. A total of 155 soldiers who participated in the basic course (junior enlisted) and the advanced courses (officer and noncommissioned officer NCO groups) as part of their military occupational specialty (MOS) training volunteered for the study. The junior enlisted group reported significant increases in anxiety during four sessions as they approached the toxic agent portion of the training. The more experienced groups showed a small, but significant increase in anxiety during sessions. Their level of hostility, a component of stress that usually relates to levels of personal frustration, decreased significantly from the time of their initial testing to just before the training began. Since the initial session occurred 1 to 2 weeks before the U.S. Army Chemical Defense Training Facility (CDTF) training, the elevated frustration level may be a reflection of their overall experiences within the intensive chemical defense training program. A significant drop in reported fatigue between the pre- and post-training sessions may indicate a certain level of vigilance gained by participating in the training.

  11. Energy & Financial Markets - Petprod - U.S. Energy Information

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Administration (EIA) Financial Markets Gasoline and distillate both have futures contracts for delivery in New York Harbor on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). Since 2007, open interest (the number of contracts in a trading session that have not been settled or closed) and trading volume in these contracts increased for both products. Open interest in gasoline and distillate futures contracts increased as more participants entered the market Updated: Quarterly | Last Updated:

  12. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    markets archive Dollars per short ton Dollars per mmbtu NYMEX coal futures Data for: 2004- Historical data . Note: No data available for Western PRB and Eastern CSX prior to 6/30/09.

    Overview Agenda Speakers Location/directions Registration Job fair July 11-12 | Washington, DC Washington Hilton Keynote Speakers: picture of John Holdren John Holdren Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and Director, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy picture of Senator Jeff

  13. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    16, 2001 | Release Date: September 17, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Last week was a week like no other, as both financial and energy markets were disrupted Tuesday morning by the attacks on the World Trade Center (WTC) and the Pentagon. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), located within four blocks of the WTC, closed almost immediately after the first attack; spot markets throughout the country closed soon after news of the attacks reached them. Futures

  14. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    8, 2016 | Release date: June 9, 2016 | Next release: June 16, 2016 | Previous weeks JUMP TO: In The News | Overview | Prices/Supply/Demand | Storage In the News: Near-month futures contract indicates expectations of rising prices Heading into the summer cooling season, the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) natural gas contract for July has markedly exceeded Henry Hub spot prices, likely reflecting expectations for summer natural gas consumption to increase substantially from current levels.

  15. Sedimentology of the Mesaverde Formation at Rifle Gap, Colorado and implications for gas-bearing intervals in the subsurface

    SciTech Connect

    Lorenz, J.C.

    1982-03-01

    The exposures of the Mesaverde Formation at Rifle Gap, Colorado, are of a regressive series of marine to fluvial deposits about 1650 m (5000 ft) thick. Grading up out of the marine Mancos Shale, the blanket shoreline sandstones of the Corcoran, Cozzette, and Rollins Sandstones record substages of the regression as delta lobes were activated and abandoned in northwestern Colorado during Late Cretaceous time. The overlying coals, sandstones, and carbonaceous mudstones were deposited on the paludal lower delta plain behind the shoreline. Meandering fluvial systems prograded over the paludal deposits. These systems deposited point-bar sandstones and overbank mudstones and siltstones in composite meander-belt trends, some of which are now gas-bearing, low-permeability reservoirs. Reorientation of the paleogeography during the Laramide orogeny (contemporaneous with fluvial deposition) probably changed the orientation of the meander belt trends. The uppermost sandstones at Rifle Gap, including the Ohio Creek conglomerate, are interpreted as shoreline deposits of a transgression that has been previously unrecognized in the area. Most of the record of this transgression has been destroyed by pre-Eocene erosion. The outcrops at Rifle Gap provide a basis for interpreting subsurface deposis in the Department of Energy's Western Gas Sands Project Multi-Well Experiment, 12 miles away.

  16. Is Short-Interval Mammography Necessary After Breast Conservation Surgery and Radiation Treatment in Breast Cancer Patients?

    SciTech Connect

    Hymas, Richard V.; Gaffney, David K.; Parkinson, Brett T.; Belnap, Thomas W.; Sause, William T.

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: The optimum timing and frequency of mammography in breast cancer patients after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) are controversial. The American Society of Clinical Oncology recommends the first posttreatment mammogram 1 year after diagnosis but no earlier than 6 months after completion of radiotherapy. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network recommends annual mammography. Intermountain Healthcare currently follows a more frequent mammography schedule during the first 2 years in BCT patients. This retrospective study was undertaken to determine the cancer yield mammography during the first 2 years after BCT. Methods and Materials: 1,435 patients received BCT at Intermountain Healthcare between 2003 and 2007, inclusive. Twenty-three patients had bilateral breast cancer (1,458 total breasts). Patients were followed up for 24 months after diagnosis. The 1- and 2-year mammography yields were determined and compared with those of the general screening population. Results: 1,079 breasts had mammography at less than 1 year, and two ipsilateral recurrences (both noninvasive) were identified; 1,219 breasts had mammography during the second year, and nine recurrences (three invasive, six noninvasive) were identified. Of the 11 ipsilateral recurrences during the study, three presented with symptoms and eight were identified by mammography alone. The mammography yield was 1.9 cancers per 1,000 breasts the first year and 4.9 per 1,000 the second year. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that the mammography yield during the first 2 years after BCT is not greater than that in the general population, and they support the policy for initiating followup mammography at 1 year after BCT.

  17. Familial site-specific Ovarian cancer is linked to BRCA1 on 17q12-21

    SciTech Connect

    Steichen-Gersdorf, E.; Gallion, H.H.; Ponder, M.A.; Pye, C.; Mazoyer, S.; Smith, S.A.; Ponder, B.A.J.; Ford, D.; Easton, D.F.; Girodet, C.

    1994-11-01

    In a study of nine families with {open_quotes}site-specific{close_quotes} ovarian cancer (criterion: three or more cases of epithelial ovarian cancer and no cases of breast cancer diagnosed at age <50 years) we have obtained evidence of linkage to the breast-ovarian cancer susceptibility gene, BRCA1 on 17q12-21. If the risk of cancer in these families is assumed to be restricted to the ovary, the best estimate of the proportion of families linked to BRCA1 is .78 (95% confidence interval .32-1.0). If predisposition to both breast and ovarian cancer is assumed, the proportion linked is 1.0 (95% confidence interval .46-1.0). The linkage of familial site-specific ovarian cancer to BRCA1 indicates the possibility of predictive testing in such families; however, this is only appropriate in families where the evidence for linkage to BRCA1 is conclusive. 17 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Solar Census - Perfecting the Art of Automated, Remote Solar Shading Assessments (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2014-04-01

    To validate the work completed by Solar Census as part of the Department of Energy SunShot Incubator 8 award, NREL validated the performanec of the Solar Census Surveyor tool against the industry standard Solmetric SunEye measurements for 4 residential sites in California who experienced light to heavy shading. Using the a two one-sided test (TOST) of statistical equivalence, NREL found that the mean differences between the Solar Census and SunEye mean solar access values for Annual, Summer, and Winter readings fall within the 95% confidence intervals and the confidence intervals themselves fall within the tolerances of +/- 5 SAVs, the Solar Census calculations are statistically equivalent to the SunEye measurements.

  19. Outcomes of Node-Negative Breast Cancer 5 Centimeters and Larger Treated With and Without Postmastectomy Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Goulart, Jennifer; Truong, Pauline; Woods, Ryan; Speers, Caroline H.; Kennecke, Hagen; Nichol, Alan

    2011-07-01

    Purpose: The role of adjuvant postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) remains controversial for the rare presentation of pT3pN0cM0 breast cancer. The present analysis examined locoregional recurrence (LRR) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) in pT2 = 5.0-cm and pT3 >5.0-cm tumors treated with mastectomy, stratified by PMRT use. Materials and Methods: Between January 1, 1989 and December 31, 2000, the British Columbia provincial database yielded 100 node-negative patients with tumors {>=}5 cm of 19,846 nonmetastatic breast cancer patients (0.5%). Of these 100 patients, 44 (44%) had received adjuvant PMRT. Results: The PMRT group contained significantly more pT3 >5-cm cases (p = 0.001) and margin-positive cases (p = .03). With a median follow-up of 10 years, the cumulative 10-year LRR rate was 2.3% (95% confidence interval, 0.2-10.5) in the PMRT group vs. 8.9% (95% confidence interval, 3.2-18.2) in the no-PMRT group (p = .2). Regarding LRR in the no-PMRT group, all patients had Grade 3 histologic features (LRR 17%, 5 of 29) and had not received hormonal therapy (LRR 15%, 5 of 34). The 10-year breast cancer-specific survival rate was 85.8% (95% confidence interval 71.0-93.4) in the PMRT group vs. 74.6% (95% confidence interval 59.9-84.5) in the no-PMRT group (p = .2). On multivariate analysis, adjusted for the prognostic and predictive variables, PMRT did not significantly improve the LRR or breast cancer-specific survival rates. Conclusion: The present study demonstrated a low LRR rate for node-negative breast cancer {>=}5 cm. Our results indicate that PMRT should be considered for Grade 3 histologic features and patients not undergoing hormonal therapy.

  20. Statistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation: a case study with direct detection of dark matter

    SciTech Connect

    Akrami, Yashar; Savage, Christopher; Scott, Pat; Conrad, Jan; Edsj, Joakim E-mail: savage@fysik.su.se E-mail: conrad@fysik.su.se

    2011-07-01

    Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the employed statistical framework and scanning algorithm. In frequentist parameter estimation, a central requirement for properly constructed confidence intervals is that they cover true parameter values, preferably at exactly the stated confidence level when experiments are repeated infinitely many times. Since most widely-used scanning techniques are optimised for Bayesian statistics, one needs to assess their abilities in providing correct confidence intervals in terms of the statistical coverage. Here we investigate this for the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) when only constrained by data from direct searches for dark matter. We construct confidence intervals from one-dimensional profile likelihoods and study the coverage by generating several pseudo-experiments for a few benchmark sets of pseudo-true parameters. We use nested sampling to scan the parameter space and evaluate the coverage for the benchmarks when either flat or logarithmic priors are imposed on gaugino and scalar mass parameters. The sampling algorithm has been used in the configuration usually adopted for exploration of the Bayesian posterior. We observe both under- and over-coverage, which in some cases vary quite dramatically when benchmarks or priors are modified. We show how most of the variation can be explained as the impact of explicit priors as well as sampling effects, where the latter are indirectly imposed by physicality conditions. For comparison, we also evaluate the coverage for Bayesian credible intervals, and observe significant under-coverage in those cases.

  1. ARM - Publications: Science Team Meeting Documents

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Comparison of Aircraft Observed with Calculated Downwelling Solar Fluxes During ARESE Shi, B., and Ellingson, R.G., University of Maryland Ninth Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting The focus of this study is to estimate the confidence intervals of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Enhanced Shortwave Experiment (ARESE) solar radiation measurements on board the Egrett and Twin-Otter aircraft. The observational uncertainty is estimated by comparing measurements of

  2. MM-Estimator and Adjusted Super Smoother based Simultaneous Prediction Confedenc

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2002-07-19

    A Novel Application of Regression Analysis (MM-Estimator) with Simultaneous Prediction Confidence Intervals are proposed to detect up- or down-regulated genes, which are outliers in scatter plots based on log-transformed red (Cy5 fluorescent dye) versus green (Cy3 fluorescent Dye) intensities. Advantages of the application: 1) Robust and Resistant MM-Estimator is a Reliable Method to Build Linear Regression In the presence of Outliers, 2) Exploratory Data Analysis Tools (Boxplots, Averaged Shifted Histograms, Quantile-Quantile Normal Plots and Scattermore » Plots) are Unsed to Test Visually underlying assumptions of linearity and Contaminated Normality in Microarray data), 3) Simultaneous prediction confidence intervals (SPCIs) Guarantee a desired confidence level across the whole range of the data points used for the scatter plots. Results of the outlier detection procedure is a set of significantly differentially expressed genes extracted from the employed microarray data set. A scatter plot smoother (super smoother or locally weighted regression) is used to quantify heteroscendasticity is residual variance (Commonly takes place in lower and higher intensity areas). The set of differentially expressed genes is quantified using interval estimates for P-values as a probabilistic measure of being outlier by chance. Monte Carlo simultations are used to adjust super smoother-based SPCIs.her.« less

  3. Weekly Petroleum Status Report

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    6 Table 13. NYMEX Futures Prices of Crude Oil, Motor Gasoline, and No. 2 Heating Oil (Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel, all others in Dollars per Gallon) Mon 10/31 Tue 11/1 Wed 11/2 Thu 11/3 Fri 11/4 Mon 11/7 Tue 11/8 Wed 11/9 Thu 11/10 Fri 11/11 Crude Oil (WTI, Cushing, Oklahoma) December-2016 .............................................................. 46.86 46.67 45.34 44.66 44.07 44.89 44.98 45.27 44.66 - January-2016 .................................................................. 47.46

  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9, 2005 | Release Date: October 20, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, October 20 (next release 2:00 p.m. on October 27) Since Wednesday, October 12, spot prices decreased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 24 cents or about 2 percent to $13.52 per MMBtu. Yesterday (October 19), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for November delivery settled at $13.549 per

  5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    22, 2006 | Release Date: March 23, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, March 23 (next release 2:00 p.m. on March 30, 2006) Natural gas spot prices showed relatively modest changes at most market locations in the Lower 48 States since Wednesday, March 15, 2006. For the week (Wednesday - Wednesday, March 15 to 22), the spot price at the Henry Hub decreased by 3 cents, or less than one-half percent, to $7.07 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for

  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    26, 2006 | Release Date: April 27, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, April 27 (next release 2:00 p.m. on May 4, 2006) Since Wednesday, April 19, natural gas spot prices decreased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States, with decreases exceeding $0.30 per MMBtu at most markets. On Wednesday, April 26, prices at the Henry Hub averaged $7.18 per MMBtu, decreasing 54 cents per MMBtu, or about 7 percent, since the previous Wednesday. The NYMEX

  7. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    3, 2006 | Release Date: May 4, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, May 4 (next release 2:00 p.m. on May 11, 2006) Natural gas spot prices decreased at all market locations in the Lower 48 States since Wednesday, April 26, 2006. For the week (Wednesday, April 26 to Wednesday, May 3), the spot price at the Henry Hub decreased 62 cents, or about 9 percent, to $6.56 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for June delivery settled at $6.606 per MMBtu

  8. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    6, 2006 | Release Date: July 7, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Friday, July 7 (next release 2:00 p.m. on July 13, 2006) Natural gas spot prices decreased sharply this week (Wednesday - Thursday, June 28 - July 6), although crude oil prices continued to trade at near record high levels. For the week, the price at the Henry Hub decreased $0.76 per MMBtu, or about 13 percent, to $5.28. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of the futures contract for

  9. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    19, 2006 | Release Date: July 20, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Friday, July 20 (next release 2:00 p.m. on July 27, 2006) Since Wednesday, July 12, natural gas spot prices increased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States.On Wednesday, July 19, prices at the Henry Hub averaged $5.89 per MMBtu, increasing 24 cents per MMBtu, or about 4 percent, since the previous Wednesday. The NYMEX futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $5.862

  10. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    26, 2006 | Release Date: July 27, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, July 27 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 3, 2006) Since Wednesday, July 19, natural gas spot prices have increased at all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased by about 14 percent to $6.71 per MMBtu. Yesterday (July 26), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $6.887 per

  11. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9, 2006 | Release Date: August 10, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, August 10 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 17, 2006) Natural gas spot prices decreased at all locations except for one this week (Wednesday - Wednesday, August 2 - 9) as moderating temperatures contributed to lower demand. The Henry Hub spot price decreased $1.06 per MMBtu this week, or more than 12 percent, to $7.59. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for September delivery also

  12. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    16, 2006 | Release Date: August 17, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, August 17 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 24, 2006) Since Wednesday, August 9, natural gas spot prices decreased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. On Wednesday, August 16, prices at the Henry Hub averaged $7.02 per MMBtu, decreasing 57 cents per MMBtu, or about 7.5 percent, since the previous Wednesday. The NYMEX futures contract for September delivery at the Henry Hub

  13. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    23, 2006 | Release Date: August 24, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, August 24 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 31, 2006) Since Wednesday, August 16, natural gas spot prices increased at most market locations with the exception of a few locations in the Northeast. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 17 cents to $7.19 per MMBtu. Yesterday (August 23), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for September delivery settled

  14. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    6, 2006 | Release Date: September 7, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, September 7 (next release 2:00 p.m. on September 14, 2006) Since Wednesday, August 30, natural gas spot prices have decreased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub declined 67 cents, or about 10 percent, to $5.73 per MMBtu. Yesterday (September 6), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for October delivery at the

  15. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    13, 2006 | Release Date: September 14, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, September 14 (next release 2:00 p.m. on September 21, 2006) Since Wednesday, September 6, natural gas spot prices decreased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. On Wednesday, September 13, prices at the Henry Hub averaged $5.41 per MMBtu, decreasing 32 cents per MMBtu, or about 6 percent, since the previous Wednesday. The NYMEX futures contract for October delivery at the

  16. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    7, 2006 | Release Date: September 28, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, September 28 (next release 2:00 p.m. on October 5, 2006) Natural gas spot prices decreased sharply since Wednesday, September 20, at nearly all market locations. For the week (Wednesday to Wednesday), the price at the Henry Hub decreased $0.52 per MMBtu, or about 10 percent, to $4.35 per The NYMEX futures contract for October delivery at the Henry Hub declined about 73 cents since last

  17. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    11, 2006 | Release Date: October 12, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, October 12 (next release 2:00 p.m. on October 19, 2006) Natural gas spot prices increased sharply this week (Wednesday-Wednesday, October 4-11) as colder temperatures crept into the Midwest. For the week, the price at the Henry Hub increased $1.28 per MMBtu, or about 29 percent, to $5.65. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of the futures contract for November delivery

  18. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    November 1, 2006 | Release Date: November 2, 2006 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, November 2 (next release 2:00 p.m. on November 9, 2006) Since Wednesday, October 25, natural gas spot prices decreased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States.On Wednesday, November 1, prices at the Henry Hub averaged $7.16 per MMBtu, a decline of 4 cents per MMBtu, or less than 1 percent, since the previous Wednesday. The NYMEX futures contract for December delivery at

  19. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    1, 2007 | Release Date: March 22, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, March 22, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on March 29, 2007) As the bitter cold has evolved to more moderate temperatures, natural gas spot prices have eased through most of the country. During the report week (Wednesday-Wednesday, March 14-21), the Henry Hub spot price declined 4 cents per MMBtu to $6.82. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), prices for futures contracts were slightly

  20. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    4, 2007 | Release Date: April 5, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, April 5, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 12, 2007) Since Wednesday, March 28, natural gas spot prices generally increased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States, while declining at selected markets. Prices at the Henry Hub declined a penny since Wednesday, March 28, to $7.46 per MMBtu.At the NYMEX, the futures contract for May delivery at the Henry Hub declined 16 cents per

  1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    1, 2007 | Release Date: April 12, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, April 12, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 19, 2007) Unseasonably cold temperatures in most regions of the country led to increases of both spot and futures prices since Wednesday, April 4. On the week (Wednesday-Wednesday, April 4-11) the Henry Hub spot price increased 50 cents per MMBtu, or about 6.7 percent, to $7.96. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract

  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    30, 2007 | Release Date: May 31, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, May 31, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on June 7, 2007) Since Wednesday, May 23, natural gas spot prices generally increased at most markets in the Lower 48 States outside the Rocky Mountains and Midcontinent regions. Prices at the Henry Hub climbed 18 cents per MMBtu, or 2 percent, since Wednesday, May 23, to $7.71 per MMBtu. At the NYMEX, the futures contract for July delivery at the Henry

  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    7, 2007 | Release Date: June 28, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, June 28, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on July 6, 2007) Since Wednesday, June 20, natural gas spot prices decreased at virtually all markets in the Lower 48 States outside the Rocky Mountains and Northeast regions. Prices at the Henry Hub declined 65 cents per MMBtu, or 9 percent, since Wednesday, June 20, to $6.74 per MMBtu, posting its lowest level since March 19. At the NYMEX, the futures

  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    5, 2007 | Release Date: July 6, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Friday, July 6, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on July 12, 2007) Natural gas spot prices decreased sharply this week (Wednesday-Thursday, June 27-July 5), although crude oil prices continued to trade at near-record high levels. For the week, the price at the Henry Hub decreased $0.45 per MMBtu, or about 7 percent, to $6.29. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of the futures contract

  5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    15, 2007 | Release Date: August 16, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, August 16, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 23, 2007) Since Wednesday, August 8, natural gas spot prices increased at virtually all markets in the Lower 48 States outside the Rocky Mountain region. Prices at the Henry Hub climbed $1.04 per MMBtu, or nearly 17 percent, since Wednesday, August 8, to $7.30 per MMBtu. At the NYMEX, the futures contract for September delivery at the

  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    0, 2007 | Release Date: October 11, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, October 11, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on October 18, 2007) Since Wednesday, October 3, natural gas spot prices decreased at most markets in the Lower 48 States outside the Midcontinent region. Prices at the Henry Hub fell 17 cents per MMBtu, or 2 percent, since Wednesday to $6.79 per MMBtu. At the NYMEX, the futures contract for November delivery at the Henry Hub settled yesterday

  7. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    28, 2007 | Release Date: November 29, 2007 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, November 29, 2007 (next release 2:00 p.m. on December 6, 2007) Since Wednesday, November 21, natural gas spot prices increased at all markets in the Lower 48 States. Prices at the Henry Hub rose 83 cents per MMBtu, or 12 percent, since Wednesday to $7.51 per MMBtu. At the NYMEX, the futures contract for December delivery at the Henry Hub expired yesterday (November 28) at $7.203 per

  8. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    16, 2008 | Release Date: January 17, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview (Wednesday, January 9, 2007 to Thursday, January 16, 2008) Released: January 17, 2008 Next release: January 24, 2008 Since Wednesday, January 9, natural gas spot prices increased at virtually all markets in the Lower 48 States. Prices at the Henry Hub rose 35 cents per million Btu (MMBtu), or about 4 percent, to $8.23 per MMBtu. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract

  9. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    6, 2008 | Release Date: February 7, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview (Wednesday, January 30, to Wednesday, February 6) Released: February 7, 2008 Next release: February 14, 2008 Since Wednesday, January 30, natural gas spot prices decreased at most markets in the Lower 48 States. Prices at the Henry Hub fell 23 cents per million Btu (MMBtu), or about 3 percent, to $7.94 per MMBtu. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for March

  10. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    15, 2008 | Release Date: February 14, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview (Wednesday, February 6, to Wednesday, February 13) Released: February 14, 2008 Next release: February 21, 2008 Â* Since Wednesday, February 6, natural gas spot prices increased at virtually all markets in the Lower 48 States. Prices at the Henry Hub rose 41 cents per million Btu (MMBtu), or about 5 percent, to $8.35 per MMBtu. Â* At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract

  11. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    2, 2008 | Release Date: March 13, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview (Wednesday, March 5, to Wednesday, March 12) Released: March 13, 2008 Next release: March 20, 2008 Â* Natural gas spot and futures prices generally increased this report week, as cold weather continued but showed signs of easing. During the report week, the Henry Hub spot price increased $0.32 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $9.69. Â* At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), prices for futures

  12. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9, 2008 | Release Date: March 20, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview (Wednesday, March 12, to Wednesday, March 19) Released: March 20, 2008 Next release: March 27, 2008 Since Wednesday, March 12, natural gas spot prices eased at virtually all markets in the Lower 48 States. Prices at the Henry Hub fell 58 cents per million Btu (MMBtu), or about 6 percent, to $9.11 per MMBtu. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for April delivery at the

  13. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9, 2008 | Release Date: April 10, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview (Wednesday, April 2, to Wednesday, April 9) Released: April 10, 2008 Next release: April 17, 2008 Â* Since Wednesday, April 2, natural gas spot prices increased at most markets in the Lower 48 States. Prices at the Henry Hub rose 30 cents per million Btu (MMBtu), or about 3 percent, to $9.89 per MMBtu. Â* At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for May delivery at the

  14. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    16, 2008 | Release Date: April 17, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview (Wednesday, April 9, to Wednesday, April 16) Released: April 17, 2008 Next release: April 24, 2008 Â* Since Wednesday, April 9, natural gas spot prices increased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. Currently, spot prices exceed the average spot prices of the 2007-2008 heating season by about 25 percent. Â* At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for

  15. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    23, 2008 | Release Date: April 24, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview (Wednesday, April 16, to Wednesday, April 23) Released: April 24, 2008 Next release: May 1, 2008 Â* Spot prices at all market locations (outside the Rocky Mountain Region) are trading above $9 per million Btu (MMBtu), with a majority of the points registering prices in excess of $10 per MMBtu. Â* At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for May delivery at the Henry Hub

  16. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    16, 2008 | Release Date: May 15, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Released: May 15, 2008 Next Release: May 22, 2008 Overview Natural gas spot prices increased in a majority of regions of the Lower 48 States this report week (Wednesdayâ€"Wednesday, May 7-14).The Henry Hub spot price increased $0.43 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $11.51, the highest average price recorded at the Henry Hub in more than 2 years. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), prices also

  17. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    4, 2008 | Release Date: July 3, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Released: July 3, 2008 Next Release: July 10, 2008 Overview Since Wednesday, June 25, natural gas spot prices increased at most markets in the Lower 48 States, with prices rising up to 5 percent during the period. Prices at the Henry Hub increased 55 cents per million Btu (MMBtu), or about 4 percent, to $13.31 per MMBtu. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for August delivery at the

  18. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    1, 2008 | Release Date: July 10, 2008 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Released: July 10, 2008 Next Release: July 17, 2008 Overview Natural gas spot prices declined sharply this report week (Wednesdayâ€"Wednesday, July 2-9), with the largest decreases generally occurring in consuming regions in the Northeast and Midwest. During the report week, the Henry Hub spot price decreased $1.22 per million Btu (MMBtu) to $12.09. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), a trend

  19. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    8, 2012 | Release date: Jan. 19, 2012 | Next release: Jan. 26, 2012 | Previous weeks JUMP TO: In The News | Overview | Prices | Storage In the News: Natural Gas Futures Price Nears 10-Year Low Natural gas prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) settled at $2.488 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu) on Tuesday, January 17. A near-month contract has not ended daily trading that low since March 5, 2002, nearly 10 years ago. Prices dropped again, slightly, the following day, settling

  20. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    11, 2012 | Release date: Apr. 12, 2012 | Next release: Apr. 19, 2012 | Previous weeks JUMP TO: In The News | Overview | Prices | Storage In the News: EIA's April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released on April 10, revised its price forecast through 2013 downward. Averaging $2.18 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in March, natural gas spot prices at the Henry Hub were at their lowest level since 1999. In the past few weeks, spot prices have traded below $2.00 per MMBtu, and NYMEX

  1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    25, 2012 | Release date: Apr. 26, 2012 | Next release: May 3, 2012 | Previous weeks JUMP TO: In The News | Overview | Prices | Storage In the News: NYMEX Prices for the Coming 12 Months Remain Low. Prices for natural gas for contract months between May 2012 and April 2013 have fallen significantly over the past year. At the end of April 2011, prices for May 2012 (now the near-month contract) were trading close to $5.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), but are currently near $2.00 per

  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    13, 2001 | Release Date: May 14, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview Lower prices and a report of another considerable net injection to stocks were featured in last week’s gas markets. As of Friday, May 11, 2001, the spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub dropped $0.24 from the previous Friday to $4.25 per MMBtu. The NYMEX price of natural gas for June delivery at the Henry Hub declined $0.212 for the week to $4.278 per MMBtu. A record-setting 108 Bcf was added to

  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    3, 2001 | Release Date: June 4, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Stock builds slowed from their recent pace, even though spot prices continued their downward trend to end the week at the Henry Hub at $3.71 per MMBtu, which is a Friday-to-Friday decline of $0.14 per MMBtu. The NYMEX contract price for June delivery at the Henry Hub settled Tuesday at $3.738, the lowest close-out of a near month contract since the May 2000 contract. The July contract price was $3.930 per MMBtu

  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    15, 2001 | Release Date: July 16, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: After trending up during the first four days of last week, spot prices at the Henry Hub moved down $0.14 on Friday to end trading for the week at $3.16 per MMBtu. Daily settlement prices on the NYMEX also moved up most of the week before dropping almost $0.18 per MMBtu on Friday as the near-month August contract ended the weekat $3.250. Spot and near-month futures prices last year at this time were

  5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    26, 2001 | Release Date: August 27, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: With the return of above-average storage refill estimates for the third week of August and relatively widespread normal temperatures, prices moved down at most major markets last week. (See Temperature Map) (See Deviation from Normal Temperatures Map). At the Henry Hub, the spot market price ended the week down 46 cents per MMBtu at $2.77. On the futures market, the near-month (September) NYMEX

  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    8, 2001 | Release Date: October 9, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: After beginning last week down on Monday (10/1), spot prices at the Henry Hub moved up and peaked on Thursday before declining slightly to end trading last week at $2.12 per MMBtu-almost $0.30 higher than the previous Friday. At the NYMEX futures market, the settlement price for November delivery of natural gas moved up most days before dropping by almost $0.19 per MMBtu on Friday to end the week

  7. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    19, 2001 | Release Date: November 19, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Last week, the NYMEX futures contract price for December delivery at the Henry Hub continued the generally downward trend that began in late October. The contract ended last week's trading at $2.637 per MMBtu-nearly 55 cents lower than the $3.183 recorded when it began as the near-month contract on October 30. Spot prices also experienced a similar pattern and reportedly declined well over $1.00

  8. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    25, 2001 | Release Date: November 26, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: The spot price at the Henry Hub finished the abbreviated trading week on Wednesday, November 21 at $1.91 per MMBtu, roughly 22 cents or 13 percent over the previous Friday.On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for December delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.813 per MMBtu, up roughly 18 cents over the previous Friday.Market prices were affected early in the week by the

  9. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9, 2001 | Release Date: December 10, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Price surges on Monday and Friday of last week overshadowed 3 straight days of decreases midweek, as nearly every major market location showed Friday-to-Friday gains. At the Henry Hub, the spot price gained 36 cents from the previous Friday to end the week at $2.11 per million Btu (MMBtu). On the futures market, in its first full week of trading as the near-month contract, the price of the NYMEX

  10. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    16, 2001 | Release Date: December 17, 2001 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: The spot price at the Henry Hub finished the trading week on December 14 at $2.41 per MMBtu, roughly 30 cents or 14 percent over the previous Friday.On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for January delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.846 per MMBtu, up nearly 28 cents over the previous Friday.Market prices were affected early in the week by colder weather, and then by

  11. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    6, 2002 | Release Date: January 07, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: The spot price at the Henry Hub finished the trading week on January 4 at $2.36 per MMBtu, roughly 30 cents or over 11 percent less than on the previous Friday. On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for February delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.275 per MMBtu, down nearly 50 cents from the previous Friday. Market prices were affected early in the week by colder

  12. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    1, 2002 | Release Date: January 22, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot prices at many market locations across the country finished the week on Friday, January 18 with sharp decreases that reversed gains from earlier in the week. Prices at the Henry Hub declined 2 cents per MMBtu compared with the previous Friday. On the NYMEX, the settlement price of the futures contract for February delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.236 per MMBtu, up roughly 3 cents over

  13. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    8, 2002 | Release Date: February 19, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot prices at many market locations finished the week on Friday, February 15 with sharp decreases that reversed most of the gains from earlier in the week. The price at the Henry Hub was $2.18, a decline of 2 cents per MMBtu compared with the previous Friday. On the NYMEX, the price of the futures contract for March delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.206 per MMBtu, roughly 2 cents greater

  14. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    3, 2002 | Release Date: March 4, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot prices wound up slightly higher for the week (Friday to Friday) after trading within relatively narrow ranges with only regional exceptions.On the NYMEX futures market, the March contract expired on Tuesday, February 26, 2002, at $2.388 per MMBtu, ending with a gain of $0.321 per MMBtu since becoming the near-month contract on January 29.Tuesday also saw the largest increase in spot prices, as a

  15. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    0, 2002 | Release Date: March 11, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Lingering low temperatures last week prompted spot prices at the Henry Hub to start the week up sharply gaining 19 cents to trade on Monday at $2.68 per MMBtu. Prices then declined sharply before rebounding on Thursday and Friday to end the week at $2.81 per MMBtuâ€"32 cents higher than the previous Friday. Prices on the NYMEX futures market moved up most days to end the week up almost $0.45

  16. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    17, 2002 | Release Date: March 18, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot prices at most market locations across the country finished the week on Friday, March 15 with sharp gains that contributed to significant increases ranging between 11 and 36 cents per MMBtu over the previous Friday. Prices at the Henry Hub climbed 18 cents per MMBtu from the previous Friday to trade at $2.99. On the NYMEX, the price of the futures contract for April delivery at the Henry Hub

  17. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    15, 2002 | Release Date: May 16, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Natural gas spot prices at many trading locations this week surged close to their highest levels for the month, but then eased yesterday (May 15) as cooler weather relieved a heat wave in the South and a recent run-up in the price of crude oil abated. On Tuesday, the NYMEX closing price of $3.855 per MMBtu for the futures contract with June delivery was the highest price for a near-month contract

  18. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    2, 2002 | Release Date: May 23, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Natural gas spot and futures prices trended down for the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, May 15-22). The cold front that moved into major gas-consuming areas of the Midwest and Northeast for the weekend and lingered into the first part of this week had minimal impact on prices. At the Henry Hub, the average spot price fell 24 cents for the week to $3.38 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX, the settlement price of

  19. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    4, 2002 | Release Date: July 5, 2002, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Natural gas spot prices declined by 30 cents or more at most market locations in the Lower 48 last week as temperatures across the country began to moderate from recent extreme highs. The average spot price at the Henry Hub during the week (Wednesday, June 26 to Wednesday July 3) fell by more than 9 percent to $3.10 per MMBtu. The NYMEX futures contract for August delivery fell 6 percent on the

  20. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    11, 2002 | Release Date: September 12, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Natural gas spot prices have moved up by 10 to 25 cents at most trading locations since Wednesday, September 4. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), the average Henry Hub price climbed $0.20 per MMBtu to $3.32 as Tropical Storm Fay temporarily threatened Gulf area production activity and late-season high temperatures triggered cooling demand in key market areas. The price of the NYMEX futures

  1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    September 25, 2002 | Release Date: September 26, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Since Wednesday, September 18, natural gas spot prices have declined at most locations in the Lower 48 States. However, prices climbed at some market locations, with a few locations reporting gains of as much as 60 cents during the same period. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub fell 4 cents or roughly 1 percent to $3.75 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX

  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    16, 2002 | Release Date: October 17, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Since Wednesday, October 10, natural gas spot prices have increased at most locations in the Lower 48 States, climbing between 10 and 50 cents per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 19 cents or roughly 5 percent to $4.10 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for November delivery at the Henry Hub has increased nearly 31 cents since last

  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    November 6, 2002 | Release Date: November 7, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Since Wednesday, October 30, natural gas spot prices have decreased at most locations in the Lower 48 States, falling between 29 and 77 cents per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 40 cents or roughly 9 percent to $3.93 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for December delivery at the Henry Hub has decreased nearly 54 cents since last

  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    December 18, 2002 | Release Date: December 19, 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Natural gas spot prices on Wednesday, December 18, were higher than the previous Wednesday at most locations in the Lower 48 States, climbing between 20 and 60 cents per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 36 cents or roughly 8 percent to $4.86 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for January delivery at the Henry Hub has increased

  5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9, 2003 | Release Date: January 30, 2003 , 2002 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Since Wednesday, January 22, natural gas spot prices have decreased at nearly all locations in the Lower 48 States, falling up to $3.18 per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 6 cents or roughly 1 percent to $5.62 per MMBtu. However, prices hit $6.56 on Thursday, January 23, which is its highest level since late January 2001. The price of the NYMEX

  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    19, 2003 | Release Date: February 20, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Since Wednesday, February 12, natural gas spot prices have decreased at nearly all locations in the Lower 48 States, falling up to $6.03 per MMBtu. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 10 cents or roughly 2 percent to $6.07 per MMBtu. However, prices remain close to their highest levels since late January 2001. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for March

  7. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    26, 2003 | Release Date: March 27, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: At the Henry Hub, the spot price declined 29 cents per MMBtu from the previous Wednesday (March 19), as spot gas traded yesterday (Wednesday, March 26) for $4.91. Both spot and futures prices trended lower for the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, March 19-26), as mild temperatures in most of the nation accompanied the first week of spring. On the NYMEX, the settlement price for the futures contract for

  8. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    April 2, 2003 | Release Date: April 3, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Since Wednesday, March 26, natural gas spot prices were lower at most locations in the Lower 48 States, while other locations had narrow gains. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 2 cents or less than 1 percent to $4.89 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for May delivery at the Henry Hub decreased roughly 8 cents per MMBtu or nearly 2 percent

  9. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    23, 2003 | Release Date: April 24, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Since Wednesday, April 16, natural gas spot prices were lower at nearly all locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 4 cents or less than 1 percent to $5.58 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for May delivery at the Henry Hub decreased roughly 11 cents per MMBtu or nearly 2 percent since last Wednesday to settle at $5.569

  10. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    30, 2003 | Release Date: May 1, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot natural gas prices at most trading locations in the Lower 48 States dropped $0.25-$0.50 per MMBtu this week (Wednesday, April 23-Wednesday, April 30) as springtime temperatures prevailed in most areas. The Henry Hub spot price decreased 33 cents per MMBtu to $5.25, while spot price declines in the Northeast were generally greater at between $0.36 and $0.50. The price of the NYMEX futures contract

  11. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    14, 2003 | Release Date: May 15, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Compared with Wednesday, May 7, natural gas spot prices were higher at all locations in the Lower 48 States in trading on May 14. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 69 cents or roughly 12 percent to $6.16 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for June delivery at the Henry Hub increased roughly 65 cents per MMBtu or 11 percent since last Wednesday to

  12. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    8, 2003 | Release Date: May 29, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot and futures prices trended down for the second consecutive week, as cool, rainy weather continued to dominate much of the nation, with the few pockets of summer-like temperatures generating swing demand and higher prices only in limited areas. At the Henry Hub, prices declined by nearly 6 percent for the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, May 22-29), falling 36 cents to $5.71 per MMBtu. The NYMEX

  13. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    June 4, 2003 | Release Date: June 5, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Compared with Wednesday, May 28, natural gas spot prices were higher at all locations in the Lower 48 States in trading on June 4. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 70 cents or about 12 percent to $6.41 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for July delivery at the Henry Hub increased roughly 36 cents per MMBtu or 5 percent since last Wednesday to

  14. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    18, 2003 | Release Date: June 19, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot and futures prices fell for the second straight week, as generally mild temperatures continued to prevail in most major market areas and storage injections exceeded 100 Bcf for a third straight week. At the Henry Hub, the spot price fell by 52 cents per MMBtu on the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, June 11-19), or almost 9 percent, to $5.54 per MMBtu. The settlement price for the NYMEX futures

  15. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    25, 2003 | Release Date: June 26, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Compared with Wednesday, June 18, natural gas spot prices were higher at all locations in the Lower 48 States in trading on June 25. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 10 cents or about 2 percent to $5.64 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for July delivery at the Henry Hub increased roughly 18 cents per MMBtu or 3 percent since last Wednesday to

  16. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    30, 2003 | Release Date: July 31, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Compared with Wednesday, July 23, natural gas spot prices were lower at all locations in the Lower 48 States in trading on July 30. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 19 cents or about 4 percent to $4.69 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub closed on Tuesday, July 29 at $4.693 per MMBtu, down roughly 18 cents or 4

  17. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    August 6, 2003 | Release Date: August 7, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: With little in the way of fundamental changes, spot and futures prices showed modest gains for the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, July 30-August 6). The Henry Hub spot price gained a nickel on the week, ending trading yesterday (Wednesday, August 6) at $4.71 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX, the near-month futures contract (for September delivery) settlement price increased by $0.077 to $4.745 per

  18. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    10, 2003 | Release Date: September 11, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot natural gas prices increased 5 to 15 cents in most regional markets for the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, September 3-10). The Henry Hub spot price gained 10 cents on the week, ending trading yesterday (Wednesday, September 10) at $4.78 per MMBtu. Futures prices were up as well, with the gains owing almost entirely to yesterday's large price increases. The NYMEX futures contract for October

  19. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    12, 2003 | Release Date: November 13, 2003 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Spot and futures prices moved in opposite directions for the week (Wednesday to Wednesday, November 5-12), as cash prices ended the week significantly higher in many locations, while futures prices moved lower. At the Henry Hub, the spot price increased 32 cents on the week, or about 7 percent, to end trading yesterday (Wednesday, November 12) at $4.77 per MMBtu. On the NYMEX, the futures

  20. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    February 4, 2004 | Release Date: February 5, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, February 5, 2004 (next release 2:00 p.m. on February 12) Since Wednesday, January 28, natural gas spot prices have decreased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 30 cents or about 5 percent to $5.74 per MMBtu. Yesterday (February 4), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for February delivery at

  1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    April 7, 2004 | Release Date: April 8, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, April 8, 2004 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 15) Natural gas spot prices have increased since Wednesday, March 31, at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub increased 13 cents or about 2 percent to $5.76 per MMBtu. Yesterday (Wednesday, April 7), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for May delivery at the Henry

  2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    April 21, 2004 | Release Date: April 22, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, April 22, 2004 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 29) Since Wednesday, April 14, natural gas spot prices have decreased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 21 cents or about 4 percent to $5.52 per MMBtu. Yesterday (April 21), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for May delivery at the Henry

  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    19, 2004 | Release Date: May 20, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, May 20 (next release 2:00 p.m. on May 27) Since Wednesday, May 12, natural gas spot prices have decreased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 21 cents or about 3 percent to $6.18 per MMBtu. Yesterday (May 19), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for June delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $6.455

  4. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    26, 2004 | Release Date: May 27, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, May 27 (next release 2:00 p.m. on June 3) High crude oil prices and increasing cooling demand contributed to natural gas spot prices climbing 20 to 55 cents per MMBtu at most trading locations in the Lower 48 States since Wednesday, May 19. On the week (Wednesday-Wednesday, May 19-26), the Henry Hub spot price rose 52 cents per MMBtu to $6.70. The NYMEX futures contract for June delivery

  5. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    30, 2004 | Release Date: July 1, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, July 1 (next release 2:00 p.m. on July 8) Since Wednesday, June 23, natural gas spot prices have decreased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub decreased 24 cents or about 4 percent to $6.05 per MMBtu. Yesterday (June 30), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub settled at

  6. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    21, 2004 | Release Date: July 22, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, July 22 (next release 2:00 p.m. on July 29) Since Wednesday, July 14, natural gas spot prices have increased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub remained at $5.91 per MMBtu. Yesterday (July 21), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for August delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $5.931 per MMBtu, decreasing

  7. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    August 4, 2004 | Release Date: August 5, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, August 5 (next release 2:00 p.m. on August 12) Since Wednesday, July 28, natural gas spot prices have decreased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub declined 7 cents or about 1 percent to $5.70 per MMBtu. Yesterday (August 4), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for September delivery at the Henry Hub settled

  8. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    , 2004 | Release Date: September 2, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, September 2 (next release 2:00 p.m.on September 9) Since Wednesday, August 25, natural gas spot prices have decreased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub declined 29 cents, or about 5 percent, to $5.03 per MMBtu. Yesterday (September 1), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for October delivery at the

  9. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    15, 2004 | Release Date: September 16, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, September 16 (next release 2:00 p.m. on September 23) Natural gas spot and futures price movements were mixed for the week, as Hurricane Ivan pushed prices upward in Gulf of Mexico production areas and in consuming markets east of the Mississippi, but had little effect on prices elsewhere. Likewise, on the NYMEX, the price for the near-month contract (for October delivery) got a

  10. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    3, 2004 | Release Date: November 4, 2004 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, November 4 (next release 2:00 p.m. on November 10) Since Wednesday, October 27, natural gas spot prices have decreased at virtually all market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub declined 86 cents, or about 11 percent, to $7.26 per MMBtu. Yesterday (November 3), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for December delivery at the

  11. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    January 5, 2005 | Release Date: January 6, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, January 6 (next release 2:00 p.m. on January 13) Since Wednesday, December 29, natural gas spot prices have decreased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub declined 34 cents, or about 6 percent, to $5.84 per MMBtu. Yesterday (January 5), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for February delivery at the Henry

  12. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    0, 2005 | Release Date: January 21, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Friday, January 21 (next release 2:00 p.m. on January 27) Since Wednesday, January 12, natural gas spot prices have increased at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. During the period since Wednesday, January 12, prices at the Henry Hub climbed 37 cents, or about 6 percent, to $6.26 per MMBtu. Yesterday (January 20), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for February delivery at the

  13. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    2, 2005 | Release Date: February 3, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, February 3 (next release 2:00 p.m. on February 10) Since Wednesday, January 26, natural gas spot price movements have been mixed, increasing at most market locations in the Lower 48 States while decreasing in the Northeast and Louisiana regions. Prices at the Henry Hub fell 6 cents, or about 1 percent, to $6.38 per MMBtu Yesterday (February 2), the price of the NYMEX futures contract for

  14. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    9, 2005 | Release Date: February 10, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, February 10 (next release 2:00 p.m. on February 17) Natural gas spot and futures prices have generally decreased for the week (Wednesday-Wednesday, February 2-9). The Henry Hub natural gas spot price fell 18 cents, or about 3 percent, while prices at most other regional markets ended the week with decreases of betwe en 2 and 42 cents per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for

  15. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    February 23, 2005 | Release Date: February 24, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, February 24 (next release 2:00 p.m. on March 3) Since Wednesday, February 16, natural gas spot prices have declined at most market locations in the Lower 48 States, while increasing in the Northeast region. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub fell 9 cents, or about 1 percent, to $6.02 per MMBtu. Yesterday (February 23), the price of the NYMEX futures

  16. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    March 2, 2005 | Release Date: March 3, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, March 3 (next release 2:00 p.m. on March 10) Following the cold weather trend, natural gas prices have increased since Wednesday, February 23 at most market locations in the Lower 48 States, with the exception of some Northeast trading points. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), spot prices at the Henry Hub increased 59 cents per MMBtu, or 9.8 percent, to $6.61. The price of the NYMEX

  17. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    0, 2005 | Release Date: April 21, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, April 21 (next release 2:00 p.m. on April 28) Natural gas spot prices exhibited relatively modest changes at all market locations in the Lower 48 States since Wednesday, April 14, 2005. For the week (Wednesday â€" Wednesday, April 13 to 20), the spot price at the Henry Hub increased 3 cents, less than one-half percent, to $7.10 per MMBtu. The price of the NYMEX futures contract for

  18. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    1, 2005 | Release Date: May 12, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, May 12 (next release 2:00 p.m. on May 19) Spot and futures natural gas prices this week (Wednesday-Wednesday, May 4-11) partly recovered from the prior week's sharp decline, owing to warmer temperatures moving into parts of the South and cool temperatures in the Rockies. The Henry Hub spot price increased 14 cents per MMBtu to $6.63. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures contract

  19. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    8, 2005 | Release Date: June 9, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, June 9 (next release 2:00 p.m. on June 16) Higher demand for natural gas from power generators meeting air-conditioning needs likely contributed to natural gas spot prices climbing $0.38 to $1.28 per MMBtu at most trading locations since Wednesday, June 1. On the week (Wednesday-Wednesday, June 1-8), the Henry Hub spot price rose 86 cents per MMBtu to $7.22. The NYMEX futures contract for

  20. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    2, 2005 | Release Date: June 23, 2005 Previous Issues Week: 11/21/2016 (View Archive) Overview: Thursday, June 23 (next release 2:00 p.m. on June 30) Since Wednesday, June 15, changes to natural gas spot prices were mixed, declining at most markets in the Gulf of Mexico and Northeast regions while increasing at most market locations in the Lower 48 States. For the week (Wednesday-Wednesday), prices at the Henry Hub edged up 1 cent, to $7.40 per MMBtu. Yesterday (June 22), the price of the NYMEX

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Prices EIA expects Brent crude oil prices will average close to $48/ barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017. Forecast Brent prices average $43/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in 2017. The values of futures and options contracts indicate significant uncertainty in the price outlook, with NYMEX contract values for February 2017 delivery traded during the five-day

  2. Workbook Contents

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    NYMEX Futures Prices" ,"Click worksheet name or tab at bottom for data" ,"Worksheet Name","Description","# Of Series","Frequency","Latest Data for" ,"Data 1","Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma)",4,"Daily","11/15/2016","3/30/1983" ,"Data 2","Reformulated Regular Gasoline (New York Harbor)",4,"Daily","12/29/2006","12/3/1984"

  3. Changing Trends in the Refining Industry (released in AEO2006)

    Reports and Publications

    2006-01-01

    There have been some major changes in the U.S. refining industry recently, prompted in part by a significant decline in the quality of imported crude oil and by increasing restrictions on the quality of finished products. As a result, high-quality crudes, such as the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude that serves as a benchmark for oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), have been trading at record premiums to the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Basket price.

  4. Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Petri, Andrea; May, Morgan; Haiman, Zoltan

    2016-03-24

    Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension Nb with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the Nb × Nb feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of Nr realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number Ns ≤ Nr of independent ray-tracing N-body simulations. We study parameter confidence intervalsmore » as a function of (Ns, Nr) in the range 1 ≤ Ns ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ Nr ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/Nr) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N2r) error degradation that is not negligible when Nr is only a factor of few larger than Nb. We study the large Nr limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 5123-particle N-body simulation (Ns = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as Nr = few × 104 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (Ns = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.« less

  5. Microseismic and deformation imaging of hydraulic fracture growth and geometry in the C sand interval, GRI/DOE M-Site project

    SciTech Connect

    Warpinski, N.R.; Uhl, J.E.; Engler, B.P.

    1997-08-01

    Six hydraulic-fracture injections into a fluvial sandstone at a depth of 4300 ft were monitored with multi-level tri-axial seismic receivers in two wells and an inclinometer array in one well, resulting in maps of the growth and final geometry of each fracture injection. These diagnostic images show the progression of height and length growth with fluid volume, rate and viscosity. Complexities associated with shut downs and high treatment pressures can be observed. Validation of the seismic geometry was made with the inclinometers and diagnostic procedures in an intersecting well. Fracture information related to deformation, such as fracture closure pressure, residual widths, and final prop distribution, were obtained from the inclinometer data.

  6. Complex facies relationships and regional stratigraphy of the Mississippian Ste. Genevieve, Paoli, and Aux Vases Formations, Illinois basin: A major hydrocarbon-producing interval

    SciTech Connect

    Cole, R.D.; Nelson, W.J. )

    1993-03-01

    The Mississippian Ste. Genevieve and Paoli Limestones and sandstones of the Aux Vases Formation are lateral facies of one another. This interpretation is based on comprehensive investigations of outcrops, and selected cores, samples of well cuttings, and geophysical logs conducted over a period of four years. Both units exhibit similar sedimentological characteristics and represent open marine, shallow subtidal, and intertidal environments. The presence of low-angle cross-laminae, ripple- and plane-laminae, climbing ripples, and ooid shoals suggest most deposition occurred under low energy conditions. Lenticular, channel-like scour and fill structures that contain both fine-grained quartz sand and abraded, disarticulated fossil fragments indicate localized higher energy deposition. The authors studies indicate that siliciclastic vs. carbonate deposition was controlled strictly by available sediment, and not by regressive (siliciclastic) and transgressive (carbonate) events, as inferred by previous workers. This conclusion is based on lateral facies relationships, and the supplanting of carbonates by clastics occurring in the upper part of the Ste. Genevieve through the middle part of the Paoli. The Aux Vases is thickest, coarsest, and least mature in the northwestern part of the Illinois Basin, and pinches out to the southeast. This implies a northwesterly source for clastics, perhaps the Transcontinental Arch. After early Chesterian time, the Transcontinental Arch apparently supplied little or no sediment to any flanking basin. The Ste. Genevieve, Paoli, and Aux Vases are major oil-producing units in the Illinois Basin. New understanding of regional relationships should enhance exploratory success and improve recovery from established fields.

  7. The DAFT/FADA survey. I.Photometric redshifts along lines of sight to clusters in the z=[0.4,0.9] interval

    SciTech Connect

    Guennou, L.; Adami, C.; Ulmer, M.P.; LeBrun, V.; Durret, F.; Johnston, D.; Ilbert, O.; Clowe, D.; Gavazzi, R.; Murphy, K.; Schrabback, T.; /Leiden Observ. /Fermilab

    2010-08-01

    As a contribution to the understanding of the dark energy concept, the Dark energy American French Team (DAFT, in French FADA) has started a large project to characterize statistically high redshift galaxy clusters, infer cosmological constraints from Weak Lensing Tomography, and understand biases relevant for constraining dark energy and cluster physics in future cluster and cosmological experiments. Aims. The purpose of this paper is to establish the basis of reference for the photo-z determination used in all our subsequent papers, including weak lensing tomography studies. This project is based on a sample of 91 high redshift (z {ge} 0.4), massive ({approx}> 3 x 10{sup 14} M{sub {circle_dot}}) clusters with existing HST imaging, for which we are presently performing complementary multi-wavelength imaging. This allows us in particular to estimate spectral types and determine accurate photometric redshifts for galaxies along the lines of sight to the first ten clusters for which all the required data are available down to a limit of I{sub AB} = 24./24.5 with the LePhare software. The accuracy in redshift is of the order of 0.05 for the range 0.2 {le} z {le} 1.5. We verified that the technique applied to obtain photometric redshifts works well by comparing our results to with previous works. In clusters, photo-z accuracy is degraded for bright absolute magnitudes and for the latest and earliest type galaxies. The photo-z accuracy also only slightly varies as a function of the spectral type for field galaxies. As a consequence, we find evidence for an environmental dependence of the photo-z accuracy, interpreted as the standard used Spectral Energy Distributions being not very well suited to cluster galaxies. Finally, we modeled the LCDCS 0504 mass with the strong arcs detected along this line of sight.

  8. Digitally Available Interval-Specific Rock-Sample Data Compiled from Historical Records, Nevada Test Site and Vicinity, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    David B. Wood

    2009-10-08

    Between 1951 and 1992, underground nuclear weapons testing was conducted at 828 sites on the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada. Prior to and following these nuclear tests, holes were drilled and mined to collect rock samples. These samples are organized and stored by depth of borehole or drift at the U.S. Geological Survey Core Library and Data Center at Mercury, Nevada, on the Nevada Test Site. From these rock samples, rock properties were analyzed and interpreted and compiled into project files and in published reports that are maintained at the Core Library and at the U.S. Geological Survey office in Henderson, Nevada. These rock-sample data include lithologic descriptions, physical and mechanical properties, and fracture characteristics. Hydraulic properties also were compiled from holes completed in the water table. Rock samples are irreplaceable because pre-test, in-place conditions cannot be recreated and samples cannot be recollected from the many holes destroyed by testing. Documenting these data in a published report will ensure availability for future investigators.

  9. CBECS 1992 - Detailed Tables Word Definitions

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Confidence Levels Confidence Levels The 95-percent confidence range can be determined using the approximate standard error of the estimate. To calculate the 95-percent confidence...

  10. Sensitivity Test Analysis

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    1992-02-20

    SENSIT,MUSIG,COMSEN is a set of three related programs for sensitivity test analysis. SENSIT conducts sensitivity tests. These tests are also known as threshold tests, LD50 tests, gap tests, drop weight tests, etc. SENSIT interactively instructs the experimenter on the proper level at which to stress the next specimen, based on the results of previous responses. MUSIG analyzes the results of a sensitivity test to determine the mean and standard deviation of the underlying population bymore » computing maximum likelihood estimates of these parameters. MUSIG also computes likelihood ratio joint confidence regions and individual confidence intervals. COMSEN compares the results of two sensitivity tests to see if the underlying populations are significantly different. COMSEN provides an unbiased method of distinguishing between statistical variation of the estimates of the parameters of the population and true population difference.« less

  11. RADIATION PRESSURE DETECTION AND DENSITY ESTIMATE FOR 2011 MD

    SciTech Connect

    Micheli, Marco; Tholen, David J.; Elliott, Garrett T. E-mail: tholen@ifa.hawaii.edu

    2014-06-10

    We present our astrometric observations of the small near-Earth object 2011 MD (H ? 28.0), obtained after its very close fly-by to Earth in 2011 June. Our set of observations extends the observational arc to 73days, and, together with the published astrometry obtained around the Earth fly-by, allows a direct detection of the effect of radiation pressure on the object, with a confidence of 5?. The detection can be used to put constraints on the density of the object, pointing to either an unexpectedly low value of ?=(640330)kg m{sup ?3} (68% confidence interval) if we assume a typical probability distribution for the unknown albedo, or to an unusually high reflectivity of its surface. This result may have important implications both in terms of impact hazard from small objects and in light of a possible retrieval of this target.

  12. Meta-Analyses of the Associations of Respiratory Health Effectswith Dampness and Mold in Homes

    SciTech Connect

    Fisk, William J.; Lei-Gomez, Quanhong; Mendell, Mark J.

    2006-01-01

    The Institute of Medicine (IOM) of the National Academy of Sciences recently completed a critical review of the scientific literature pertaining to the association of indoor dampness and mold contamination with adverse health effects. In this paper, we report the results of quantitative meta-analysis of the studies reviewed in the IOM report. We developed point estimates and confidence intervals (CIs) to summarize the association of several respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes with the presence of dampness and mold in homes. The odds ratios and confidence intervals from the original studies were transformed to the log scale and random effect models were applied to the log odds ratios and their variance. Models were constructed both accounting for the correlation between multiple results within the studies analyzed and ignoring such potential correlation. Central estimates of ORs for the health outcomes ranged from 1.32 to 2.10, with most central estimates between 1.3 and 1.8. Confidence intervals (95%) excluded unity except in two of 28 instances, and in most cases the lower bound of the CI exceeded 1.2. In general, the two meta-analysis methods produced similar estimates for ORs and CIs. Based on the results of the meta-analyses, building dampness and mold are associated with approximately 30% to 80% increases in a variety of respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes. The results of these meta-analyses reinforce the IOM's recommendation that actions be taken to prevent and reduce building dampness problems.

  13. Comment on the Word 'Cooling' as it is Used in Beam Physics

    SciTech Connect

    Sessler, Andrew M.

    2005-09-10

    The Institute of Medicine (IOM) of the National Academy of Sciences recently completed a critical review of the scientific literature pertaining to the association of indoor dampness and mold contamination with adverse health effects. In this paper, we report the results of quantitative meta-analysis of the studies reviewed in the IOM report. We developed point estimates and confidence intervals (CIs) to summarize the association of several respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes with the presence of dampness and mold in homes. The odds ratios and confidence intervals from the original studies were transformed to the log scale and random effect models were applied to the log odds ratios and their variance. Models were constructed both accounting for the correlation between multiple results within the studies analyzed and ignoring such potential correlation. Central estimates of ORs for the health outcomes ranged from 1.32 to 2.10, with most central estimates between 1.3 and 1.8. Confidence intervals (95%) excluded unity except in two of 28 instances, and in most cases the lower bound of the CI exceeded 1.2. In general, the two meta-analysis methods produced similar estimates for ORs and CIs. Based on the results of the meta-analyses, building dampness and mold are associated with approximately 30% to 80% increases in a variety of respiratory and asthma-related health outcomes. The results of these meta-analyses reinforce the IOM's recommendation that actions be taken to prevent and reduce building dampness problems.

  14. Data free inference with processed data products

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.

    2014-07-12

    Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.

  15. Racetrack resonator as a loss measurement platform for photonic components

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Jones, Adam M.; Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; DeRose, Christopher T.; Lentine, Anthony L.; Starbuck, Andrew; Pomerene, Andrew T. S.; Norwood, Robert A.

    2015-10-27

    This work represents the first complete analysis of the use of a racetrack resonator to measure the insertion loss of efficient, compact photonic components. Beginning with an in-depth analysis of potential error sources and a discussion of the calibration procedure, the technique is used to estimate the insertion loss of waveguide width tapers of varying geometry with a resulting 95% confidence interval of 0.007 dB. Furthermore, the work concludes with a performance comparison of the analyzed tapers with results presented for four taper profiles and three taper lengths.

  16. A new method for measurement of safety rod drop times

    SciTech Connect

    Pesic, M.; Stefanovic, D. ); Marinkovic, P. )

    1992-10-01

    In this paper, a new method for the accurate measurement of safety rod drop times is proposed. It is based on a fast electromagnetic transducer and an analog-to-digital converter (ADC) conected to a computer system. Evaluation of recorded data is conducted by a developed computer code. The first measurements performed at the HERBE fast-thermal RB reactor show that a relative uncertainty (confidence level 95%) of less than 6% can be achieved in determination of rod drop time (with time intervals ranging from 0.4-10.0 s). Further improvements in accuracy are possible.

  17. Betting on the Future: The authors compare natural gas forecaststo futures buys

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-20

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market. The goal is better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. Below is a discussion of our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this article we update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words

  18. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  19. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  20. Sample Analysis Code System for the Dual Channel Counter.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    1994-09-14

    Version 00 RADCOMPT automates gross alpha and gross beta sample analysis calculations and, in many cases, warns the technologist when a hazard level is being approached or when it has been exceeded. The RADCOMPT program is unique in that it corrects for crosstalk between channels, and in this way provides increased accuracy and efficiency. Even though it is designed explicitly for the analyses of air samples and wipe samples, it can also be used formore » other sample types. It is designed to be used with a dual channel counter (in which one channel is used for alpha detection and the other for beta detection), but may be used with two single channel counters employed for the same purpose. In addition, it provides an automated means for the execution of the following radiological sample analyses protocol: A. Calibration of the counting system B. Calculation of sample activity or air activity concentrations (with the activities of air activity concentrations at the top and bottom of the two-sided 95 percent confidence interval also specified). C. Determination of minimum sample counting times required for detection and/or quantification of specified alpha and beta activities or air activity concentrations. In addition, alternate counting times are determined for alternate activities such that the specified alpha and beta activities are at the top of the 95% confidence interval, increasing the confidence that the activities measured are below the specified limits. D. Calculation of the minimum detectable activities or air activity concentrations. E. Determination of air sample volumes required for detection and/or quantification of specified alpha and beta air activity concentrations. F. Calculation of long-lived activities or air activity concentrations based on radon daughter and thoron daughter decay. G. Calculation of employees DAC-Hours and estimated Committed Effective Dose Equivalent. H. Varying calibration constants (to coincide with possible adjustments to

  1. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude assayed

    SciTech Connect

    Rhodes, A.K.

    1994-08-15

    The paper gives an assay of West Texas Intermediate, one of the world's market crudes. The price of this crude, known as WTI, is followed by market analysts, investors, traders, and industry managers around the world. WTI price is used as a benchmark for pricing all other US crude oils. The 41[degree] API < 0.34 wt % sulfur crude is gathered in West Texas and moved to Cushing, Okla., for distribution. The WTI posted prices is the price paid for the crude at the wellhead in West Texas and is the true benchmark on which other US crudes are priced. The spot price is the negotiated price for short-term trades of the crude. And the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex, price is a futures price for barrels delivered at Cushing.

  2. EIA Report 9/1/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets , 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) (2pm) 9/1/2008 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/25/2008 Year Ago 8/31/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 111.16 115.46 -4.30 115.11 73.98 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 275.10 285.42 -10.32 280.69 196.45 Heating Oil (c/gal) 309.24 319.19 -9.95 317.90 205.74 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.98 8.36 -0.38 7.94 6.46 OPEC Basket ($Bbl) NA 111.23 NA 110.61 69.60 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate

  3. EIA Report 9/12/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets 2, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/12/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/5/2008 Year Ago 9/12/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 101.18 115.46 -14.28 106.23 79.91 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 276.96 285.42 -8.46 268.61 201.60 Heating Oil (c/gal) 293.91 319.19 -25.28 298.28 221.91 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.37 7.94 -0.57 7.45 6.44 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  4. EIA Report 9/13/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets Saturday, September 13, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/12/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/5/2008 Year Ago 9/12/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 101.18 115.46 -14.28 106.23 79.91 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 276.96 285.42 -8.46 268.61 201.60 Heating Oil (c/gal) 293.91 319.19 -25.28 298.28 221.91 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.37 7.94 -0.57 7.45 6.44 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB),

  5. EIA Report 9/14/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets Sunday, September 14, 3:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 2:30pm 9/14/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/5/2008 Year Ago 9/12/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 99.17 115.46 -16.29 106.23 79.91 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 264.65 285.42 -20.77 268.61 201.60 Heating Oil (c/gal) 284.80 319.19 -34.39 298.28 221.91 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.43 7.94 -0.51 7.45 6.44 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending

  6. EIA Report 9/15/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets 15, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/15/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/8/2008 Year Ago 9/14/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 95.71 115.46 -19.75 106.34 79.10 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 256.14 285.42 -29.28 275.03 203.64 Heating Oil (c/gal) 279.12 319.19 -40.07 301.31 220.78 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.37 7.94 -0.57 7.53 6.28 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  7. EIA Report 9/2/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets , 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/2/2008 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/26/2008 Year Ago 9/4/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 109.71 115.46 -5.75 116.27 75.08 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 273.37 285.42 -12.05 285.97 199.10 Heating Oil (c/gal) 307.36 319.19 -11.83 323.44 207.95 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.26 7.94 -0.68 8.39 5.63 OPEC Basket ($Bbl) NA 111.23 NA 110.51 70.88 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate

  8. EIA Report 9/3/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets 3, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/3/2008 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/27/2008 Year Ago 9/4/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 109.35 115.46 -6.11 118.15 75.08 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 276.68 285.42 -8.74 291.72 199.10 Heating Oil (c/gal) 307.88 319.19 -11.31 328.15 207.95 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.26 7.94 -0.68 8.61 5.63 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that needs to

  9. EIA Report 9/4/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets 4, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/4/2008 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/28/2008 Year Ago 9/4/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 107.89 115.46 -7.57 115.59 75.08 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 274.04 285.42 -11.38 286.44 199.10 Heating Oil (c/gal) 302.37 319.19 -16.82 320.21 207.95 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.32 7.94 -0.62 8.05 5.63 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that needs to

  10. EIA Report 9/5/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets 5, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/5/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 8/29/2008 Year Ago 9/5/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 106.23 115.46 -9.23 115.46 75.73 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 268.61 285.42 -16.81 285.42 199.65 Heating Oil (c/gal) 298.28 319.19 -20.91 319.19 209.99 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.45 7.94 -0.49 7.94 5.81 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  11. EIA Report 9/8/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets 8, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/8/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/2/2008 Year Ago 9/7/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 106.34 115.46 -9.12 109.71 76.70 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 275.03 285.42 -10.39 273.37 198.64 Heating Oil (c/gal) 301.31 319.19 -17.88 307.36 214.32 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.53 7.94 -0.41 7.26 5.50 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that

  12. EIA Report 9/9/08 - Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Oil & Natural Gas Energy

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Markets 9, 4:00 pm See current U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts Prices NYMEX Futures Prices (for October delivery) 9/9/2008 Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago 9/2/2008 Year Ago 9/10/2007 WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl) 103.26 115.46 -12.20 109.71 77.49 Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal) 265.26 285.42 -20.16 273.37 197.86 Heating Oil (c/gal) 292.47 319.19 -26.72 307.36 217.16 Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 7.54 7.94 -0.40 7.26 5.89 *RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline

  13. NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress announces partnerships with

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    NYMEX Futures Prices (Crude Oil in Dollars per Barrel, All Others in Dollars per Gallon) Period: Daily Weekly Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Product/ Contract 11/07/16 11/08/16 11/09/16 11/10/16 11/14/16 11/15/16 View History Crude Oil (Light-Sweet, Cushing, Oklahoma) Contract 1 44.89 44.98 45.27 44.66 43.32 45.81 1983-2016 Contract 2 45.47 45.61 45.94 45.36 43.94 46.39 1985-2016 Contract 3 46.10

  14. Aspirin and Statin Nonuse Associated With Early Biochemical Failure After Prostate Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Zaorsky, Nicholas G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Li, Tianyu; Horwitz, Eric M.

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To present the largest retrospective series investigating the effect of aspirin and statins, which are hypothesized to have antineoplastic properties, on biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/mL) after prostate radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2006, 2051 men with clinically localized prostate cancer received definitive RT alone (median dose, 76 Gy). The rates of aspirin use and statin use (defined as any use at the time of RT or during follow-up) were 36% and 34%, respectively. The primary endpoint of the study was an interval to biochemical failure (IBF) of less than 18 months, which has been shown to be the single strongest predictor of distant metastasis, prostate cancer survival, and overall survival after RT. Patient demographic characteristics and tumor staging factors were assessed with regard to associations with the endpoint. Univariate analysis was performed with the {chi}{sup 2} test for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon test for continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was performed with a multiple logistic regression. Results: The median follow-up was 75 months. Univariate analysis showed that an IBF of less than 18 months was associated with aspirin nonuse (P<.0001), statin nonuse (P<.0001), anticoagulant nonuse (P=.0006), cardiovascular disease (P=.0008), and prostate-specific antigen (continuous) (P=.008) but not with Gleason score, age, RT dose, or T stage. On multivariate analysis, only aspirin nonuse (P=.0012; odds ratio, 2.052 [95% confidence interval, 1.328-3.172]) and statin nonuse (P=.0002; odds ratio, 2.465 [95% confidence interval, 1.529-3.974]) were associated with an IBF of less than 18 months. Conclusions: In patients who received RT for prostate cancer, aspirin or statin nonuse was associated with early biochemical failure, a harbinger of distant metastasis and death. Further study is needed to confirm these findings and to determine the optimal dosing and schedule, as well as the relative

  15. Comments on ''The optimization of electronic precision in ultrasonic velocity measurements: A comparison of the time interval averaging and sing around methods'' (J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 73, 1833--1837 (1983))

    SciTech Connect

    Karplus, H.B.

    1984-06-01

    J. D. Aindow and R. C. Chivers (J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 73, 1833 (1983)) compared the precision of the direct ''time-of-flight'' technique with the ''sing-around'' method for sound velocity measurement. Their conclusion is changed by the newer, faster, commercial clocks (2 ns HP5345<0.1 ns HP5370), giving the advantage to the time of flight method. The analysis is herewith augmented by calculating the time jitter in terms of signal to noise ratio, which was correctly shown to be negligible with 100-ns clocks, but becomes increasingly more significant with faster clocks.

  16. Using Ancillary Information to Reduce Sample Size in Discovery Sampling and the Effects of Measurement Error

    SciTech Connect

    Axelrod, M

    2005-08-18

    Discovery sampling is a tool used in a discovery auditing. The purpose of such an audit is to provide evidence that some (usually large) inventory of items complies with a defined set of criteria by inspecting (or measuring) a representative sample drawn from the inventory. If any of the items in the sample fail compliance (defective items), then the audit has discovered an impropriety, which often triggers some action. However finding defective items in a sample is an unusual event--auditors expect the inventory to be in compliance because they come to the audit with an ''innocent until proven guilty attitude''. As part of their work product, the auditors must provide a confidence statement about compliance level of the inventory. Clearly the more items they inspect, the greater their confidence, but more inspection means more cost. Audit costs can be purely economic, but in some cases, the cost is political because more inspection means more intrusion, which communicates an attitude of distrust. Thus, auditors have every incentive to minimize the number of items in the sample. Indeed, in some cases the sample size can be specifically limited by a prior agreement or an ongoing policy. Statements of confidence about the results of a discovery sample generally use the method of confidence intervals. After finding no defectives in the sample, the auditors provide a range of values that bracket the number of defective items that could credibly be in the inventory. They also state a level of confidence for the interval, usually 90% or 95%. For example, the auditors might say: ''We believe that this inventory of 1,000 items contains no more than 10 defectives with a confidence of 95%''. Frequently clients ask their auditors questions such as: How many items do you need to measure to be 95% confident that there are no more than 10 defectives in the entire inventory? Sometimes when the auditors answer with big numbers like ''300'', their clients balk. They balk because a

  17. Salvage/Adjuvant Brachytherapy After Ophthalmic Artery Chemosurgery for Intraocular Retinoblastoma

    SciTech Connect

    Francis, Jasmine H.; Barker, Christopher A.; Wolden, Suzanne L.; McCormick, Beryl; Segal, Kira; Cohen, Gil; Gobin, Y. Pierre; Marr, Brian P.; Brodie, Scott E.; Dunkel, Ira J.; Abramson, David H.

    2013-11-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of brachytherapy after ophthalmic artery chemosurgery (OAC) for retinoblastoma. Methods and Materials: This was a single-arm, retrospective study of 15 eyes in 15 patients treated with OAC followed by brachytherapy at (blinded institution) between May 1, 2006, and December 31, 2012, with a median 19 months' follow-up from plaque insertion. Outcome measurements included patient and ocular survival, visual function, and retinal toxicity measured by electroretinogram (ERG). Results: Brachytherapy was used as adjuvant treatment in 2 eyes and as salvage therapy in 13 eyes of which 12 had localized vitreous seeding. No patients developed metastasis or died of retinoblastoma. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of ocular survival was 79.4% (95% confidence interval 48.7%-92.8%) at 18 months. Three eyes were enucleated, and an additional 6 eyes developed out-of-target volume recurrences, which were controlled with additional treatments. Patients with an ocular complication had a mean interval between last OAC and plaque of 2.5 months (SD 2.3 months), which was statistically less (P=.045) than patients without ocular complication who had a mean interval between last OAC and plaque of 6.5 months (SD 4.4 months). ERG responses from pre- versus postplaque were unchanged or improved in more than half the eyes. Conclusions: Brachytherapy following OAC is effective, even in the presence of vitreous seeding; the majority of eyes maintained stable or improved retinal function following treatment, as assessed by ERG.

  18. A global analysis of soil microbial biomass carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in terrestrial ecosystems

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, Xiaofeng; Thornton, Peter E; Post, Wilfred M

    2013-01-01

    Soil microbes play a pivotal role in regulating land-atmosphere interactions; the soil microbial biomass carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and C:N:P stoichiometry are important regulators for soil biogeochemical processes; however, the current knowledge on magnitude, stoichiometry, storage, and spatial distribution of global soil microbial biomass C, N, and P is limited. In this study, 3087 pairs of data points were retrieved from 281 published papers and further used to summarize the magnitudes and stoichiometries of C, N, and P in soils and soil microbial biomass at global- and biome-levels. Finally, global stock and spatial distribution of microbial biomass C and N in 0-30 cm and 0-100 cm soil profiles were estimated. The results show that C, N, and P in soils and soil microbial biomass vary substantially across biomes; the fractions of soil nutrient C, N, and P in soil microbial biomass are 1.6% in a 95% confidence interval of (1.5%-1.6%), 2.9% in a 95% confidence interval of (2.8%-3.0%), and 4.4% in a 95% confidence interval of (3.9%-5.0%), respectively. The best estimates of C:N:P stoichiometries for soil nutrients and soil microbial biomass are 153:11:1, and 47:6:1, respectively, at global scale, and they vary in a wide range among biomes. Vertical distribution of soil microbial biomass follows the distribution of roots up to 1 m depth. The global stock of soil microbial biomass C and N were estimated to be 15.2 Pg C and 2.3 Pg N in the 0-30 cm soil profiles, and 21.2 Pg C and 3.2 Pg N in the 0-100 cm soil profiles. We did not estimate P in soil microbial biomass due to data shortage and insignificant correlation with soil total P and climate variables. The spatial patterns of soil microbial biomass C and N were consistent with those of soil organic C and total N, i.e. high density in northern high latitude, and low density in low latitudes and southern hemisphere.

  19. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  20. Improved precision and accuracy in quantifying plutonium isotope ratios by RIMS

    SciTech Connect

    Isselhardt, B. H.; Savina, M. R.; Kucher, A.; Gates, S. D.; Knight, K. B.; Hutcheon, I. D.

    2015-09-01

    Resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) holds the promise of rapid, isobar-free quantification of actinide isotope ratios in as-received materials (i.e. not chemically purified). Recent progress in achieving this potential using two Pu test materials is presented. RIMS measurements were conducted multiple times over a period of two months on two different Pu solutions deposited on metal surfaces. Measurements were bracketed with a Pu isotopic standard, and yielded absolute accuracies of the measured 240Pu/239Pu ratios of 0.7% and 0.58%, with precisions (95% confidence intervals) of 1.49% and 0.91%. In conclusion, the minor isotope 238Pu was also quantified despite the presence of a significant quantity of 238U in the samples.

  1. Improved precision and accuracy in quantifying plutonium isotope ratios by RIMS

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Isselhardt, B. H.; Savina, M. R.; Kucher, A.; Gates, S. D.; Knight, K. B.; Hutcheon, I. D.

    2015-09-01

    Resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) holds the promise of rapid, isobar-free quantification of actinide isotope ratios in as-received materials (i.e. not chemically purified). Recent progress in achieving this potential using two Pu test materials is presented. RIMS measurements were conducted multiple times over a period of two months on two different Pu solutions deposited on metal surfaces. Measurements were bracketed with a Pu isotopic standard, and yielded absolute accuracies of the measured 240Pu/239Pu ratios of 0.7% and 0.58%, with precisions (95% confidence intervals) of 1.49% and 0.91%. In conclusion, the minor isotope 238Pu was also quantified despite the presence ofmore » a significant quantity of 238U in the samples.« less

  2. Digital Elevation Model, 0.25 m, Barrow Environmental Observatory, Alaska, 2013

    DOE Data Explorer

    Cathy Wilson; Garrett Altmann

    2015-11-20

    This 0.25m horizontal resolution digital elevation model, DEM, was developed from Airborne Laser Altimetry flown by Aerometric Inc, now known as Quantum Spatial, Inc. on 12 July, 2013. One Mission was flown and the data jointly processed with LANL personnel to produce a 0.25m DEM covering a region approximately 2.8km wide and 12.4km long extending from the coast above North Salt Lagoon to south of Gas Well Road. This DEM encompasses a diverse range of hydrologic, geomorphic, geophysical and biological features typical of the Barrow Peninsula. Vertical accuracy at the 95% confidence interval was computed as 0.143m. The coordinate system, datum, and geoid for this DEM are UTM Zone 4N, NAD83 (2011), NAVD88 (GEOID09).

  3. Search for Violation of $CPT$ and Lorentz Invariance in $${B_s^0}$$ Meson Oscillations

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Abazov, Victor Mukhamedovich

    2015-06-12

    We present the first search for CPT-violating effects in the mixing of B0s mesons using the full Run II data set with an integrated luminosity of 10.4 fb-1 of proton-antiproton collisions collected using the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We measure the CPT-violating asymmetry in the decay B0s → µ±D±s as a function of celestial direction and sidereal phase. We find no evidence for CPT-violating effects and place limits on the direction and magnitude of flavor-dependent CPTand Lorentz-invariance violating coupling coefficients. We find 95% confidence intervals of Δa⊥ < 1.2 × 10-12 GeV and (-0.8 < ΔaT -more » 0.396ΔaZ < 3.9) × 10-13 GeV.« less

  4. Classification of heart valve single leg separations from acoustic clinical measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, G.A.; Bowman, B.C.; Boruta, N.; Thomas, G.H.; Jones, H.E.; Buhl, M.R.

    1994-05-01

    Our system classifies the condition (intact or single leg separated) of in vivo Bjork-Shiley Convexo-Concave (BSCC) heart valves by processing acoustic measurements of clinical heart valve opening sounds. We use spectral features as inputs to a two-stage classifier, which first classifies individual heart beats, then classifies valves. Performance is measured by probability of detection and probability of false alarm, and by confidence intervals on the probability of correct classification. The novelty of the work lies in the application of advanced techniques to real heart valve data, and extensions of published algorithms that enhance their applicability. We show that even when given a very small number of training samples, the classifier can achieve a probability of correct classification of 100%.

  5. LONG TERM AGING AND SURVEILLANCE OF 9975 PACKAGE COMPONENTS

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, E.; Skidmore, E.; Daugherty, W.; Dunn, K.

    2009-11-10

    The mission of the 9975 package, originally designed only for transportation of radioactive materials, has been broadened to include storage at the Savannah River Site. Two components of this package, namely the containment vessel O-rings and fiberboard overpack, require continued integrity assessment under the storage conditions. The performance of the components over time is being evaluated using accelerated-aging studies. Compression stress relaxation (CSR) and leak testing are being used to measure the performance of O-rings. The performance of the fiberboard is being evaluated using compression strength, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity and other physical properties. Models developed from the data collected provide an initial prediction of service life for the two components, and support the conclusion that normal service conditions will not degrade the performance of the package beyond specified functional requirements for the first assessment interval. Increased confidence in this conclusion is derived from field surveillance data and destructive evaluation of packages removed from storage.

  6. Automatic Estimation of the Radiological Inventory for the Dismantling of Nuclear Facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia-Bermejo, R.; Felipe, A.; Gutierrez, S.; Salas, E.; Martin, N.

    2008-01-15

    The estimation of the radiological inventory of Nuclear Facilities to be dismantled is a process that included information related with the physical inventory of all the plant and radiological survey. Estimation of the radiological inventory for all the components and civil structure of the plant could be obtained with mathematical models with statistical approach. A computer application has been developed in order to obtain the radiological inventory in an automatic way. Results: A computer application that is able to estimate the radiological inventory from the radiological measurements or the characterization program has been developed. In this computer applications has been included the statistical functions needed for the estimation of the central tendency and variability, e.g. mean, median, variance, confidence intervals, variance coefficients, etc. This computer application is a necessary tool in order to be able to estimate the radiological inventory of a nuclear facility and it is a powerful tool for decision taken in future sampling surveys.

  7. Tank 241-AX-103, cores 212 and 214 analytical results for the final report

    SciTech Connect

    Steen, F.H.

    1998-02-05

    This document is the analytical laboratory report for tank 241-AX-103 push mode core segments collected between July 30, 1997 and August 11, 1997. The segments were subsampled and analyzed in accordance with the Tank 241-AX-103 Push Mode Core Sampling and Analysis Plan (TSAP) (Comer, 1997), the Safety Screening Data Quality Objective (DQO) (Dukelow, et al., 1995) and the Data Quality Objective to Support Resolution of the Organic Complexant Safety Issue (Organic DQO) (Turner, et al., 1995). The analytical results are included in the data summary table (Table 1). None of the samples submitted for Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC), Total Alpha Activity (AT), plutonium 239 (Pu239), and Total Organic Carbon (TOC) exceeded notification limits as stated in the TSAP (Conner, 1997). The statistical results of the 95% confidence interval on the mean calculations are provided by the Tank Waste Remediation Systems Technical Basis Group in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding (Schreiber, 1997) and not considered in this report.

  8. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  9. Search for Dijet Resonances in 7 TeV pp Collisions at CMS

    SciTech Connect

    Khachatryan, V.; et al.

    2010-11-01

    A search for narrow resonances in the dijet mass spectrum is performed using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.9 inverse pb collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level (CL) are presented on the product of the resonance cross section, branching fraction into dijets, and acceptance, separately for decays into quark-quark, quark-gluon, or gluon-gluon pairs. The data exclude new particles predicted in the following models at the 95% CL: string resonances, with mass less than 2.50 TeV, excited quarks, with mass less than 1.58 TeV, and axigluons, colorons, and E_6 diquarks, in specific mass intervals. This extends previously published limits on these models.

  10. Physics-based, Bayesian sequential detection method and system for radioactive contraband

    DOEpatents

    Candy, James V; Axelrod, Michael C; Breitfeller, Eric F; Chambers, David H; Guidry, Brian L; Manatt, Douglas R; Meyer, Alan W; Sale, Kenneth E

    2014-03-18

    A distributed sequential method and system for detecting and identifying radioactive contraband from highly uncertain (noisy) low-count, radionuclide measurements, i.e. an event mode sequence (EMS), using a statistical approach based on Bayesian inference and physics-model-based signal processing based on the representation of a radionuclide as a monoenergetic decomposition of monoenergetic sources. For a given photon event of the EMS, the appropriate monoenergy processing channel is determined using a confidence interval condition-based discriminator for the energy amplitude and interarrival time and parameter estimates are used to update a measured probability density function estimate for a target radionuclide. A sequential likelihood ratio test is then used to determine one of two threshold conditions signifying that the EMS is either identified as the target radionuclide or not, and if not, then repeating the process for the next sequential photon event of the EMS until one of the two threshold conditions is satisfied.

  11. Medium term municipal solid waste generation prediction by autoregressive integrated moving average

    SciTech Connect

    Younes, Mohammad K.; Nopiah, Z. M.; Basri, Noor Ezlin A.; Basri, Hassan

    2014-09-12

    Generally, solid waste handling and management are performed by municipality or local authority. In most of developing countries, local authorities suffer from serious solid waste management (SWM) problems and insufficient data and strategic planning. Thus it is important to develop robust solid waste generation forecasting model. It helps to proper manage the generated solid waste and to develop future plan based on relatively accurate figures. In Malaysia, solid waste generation rate increases rapidly due to the population growth and new consumption trends that characterize the modern life style. This paper aims to develop monthly solid waste forecasting model using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), such model is applicable even though there is lack of data and will help the municipality properly establish the annual service plan. The results show that ARIMA (6,1,0) model predicts monthly municipal solid waste generation with root mean square error equals to 0.0952 and the model forecast residuals are within accepted 95% confident interval.

  12. Sigma: Strain-level inference of genomes from metagenomic analysis for biosurveillance

    SciTech Connect

    Ahn, Tae-Hyuk; Crosskey, JJ; Pan, Chongle

    2015-01-01

    Motivation: Metagenomic sequencing of clinical samples provides a promising technique for direct pathogen detection and characterization in biosurveillance. Taxonomic analysis at the strain level can be used to resolve serotypes of a pathogen in biosurveillance. Sigma was developed for strain-level identification and quantification of pathogens using their reference genomes based on metagenomic analysis. Results: Sigma provides not only accurate strain-level inferences, but also three unique capabilities: (i) Sigma quantifies the statistical uncertainty of its inferences, which includes hypothesis testing of identified genomes and confidence interval estimation of their relative abundances; (ii) Sigma enables strain variant calling by assigning metagenomic reads to their most likely reference genomes; and (iii) Sigma supports parallel computing for fast analysis of large datasets. The algorithm performance was evaluated using simulated mock communities and fecal samples with spike-in pathogen strains. Availability and Implementation: Sigma was implemented in C++ with source codes and binaries freely available at http://sigma.omicsbio.org.

  13. Search for first-generation leptoquarks in the jets and missing transverse energy topology in proton-antiproton collisions at center-of-mass energy 1.96 TeV

    SciTech Connect

    Tsybychev, Dmitri

    2004-03-01

    The authors performed a search for the pair production of first-generation leptoquarks using 191 pb{sup -1} of proton-antiproton collision data recorded by the CDF experiment during Run II of the Tevatron. The leptoquarks are sought via their decay into a neutrino and quark, which yields missing transverse energy and several high-E{sub T} jets. Several control regions were studied to check the background estimation from Standard Model sources, with good agreement observed in data. In the leptoquark signal region, 124 events were observed with 118.3 {+-} 14.5 expected from background. Therefore, no evidence for leptoquark production was observed, and limits were set on the cross section times the squared branching ratio. Using the next-to-leading order cross section for leptoquark production, they excluded the mass interval 78 to 117 GeV/c{sup 2} at the 95% confidence level for 100% branching ratio into neutrino plus quark.

  14. The production and certification of a plutonium equal-atom reference material: NBL CRM 128

    SciTech Connect

    Crawford, D.W. . Office of Safeguards and Security); Gradle, C.G.; Soriano, M.D. )

    1990-07-01

    This report describes the design, production, and certification of the New Brunswick Laboratory plutonium equal-atom certified reference material (CRM), NBL CRM 128. The primary use of this CRM is for the determination of bias corrections encountered in the operation of a mass spectrometer. This reference material is available to the US Department of Energy contractor-operated and government-operated laboratories, as well as to the international nuclear safeguards community. The absolute, or unbiased, certified value for the CRM's Pu-242/Pu-239 ratio is 1.00063 {plus minus} 0.00026 (95% confidence interval) as of October 1, 1984. This value was obtained through the quantitative blending of high-purity, chemically and isotopically characterized separated isotopes, as well as through intercomparisons of CRM samples with calibration mixtures using thermal ionization mass spectrometry. 32 tabs.

  15. INCREASED OIL PRODUCTION AND RESERVES UTILIZING SECONDARY/TERTIARY RECOVERY TECHNIQUES ON SMALL RESERVOIRS IN THE PARADOX BASIN, UTAH

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas C. Chidsey, Jr.

    2002-11-01

    exhibits a characteristic set of reservoir properties obtained from outcrop analogs, cores, and geophysical logs. The Anasazi and Runway fields were selected for geostatistical modeling and reservoir compositional simulations. Models and simulations incorporated variations in carbonate lithotypes, porosity, and permeability to accurately predict reservoir responses. History matches tied previous production and reservoir pressure histories so that future reservoir performances could be confidently predicted. The simulation studies showed that despite most of the production being from the mound-core intervals, there were no corresponding decreases in the oil in place in these intervals. This behavior indicates gravity drainage of oil from the supra-mound intervals into the lower mound-core intervals from which the producing wells' major share of production arises. The key to increasing ultimate recovery from these fields (and similar fields in the basin) is to design either waterflood or CO{sub 2}-miscible flood projects capable of forcing oil from high-storage-capacity but low-recovery supra-mound units into the high-recovery mound-core units. Simulation of Anasazi field shows that a CO{sub 2} flood is technically superior to a waterflood and economically feasible. For Anasazi field, an optimized CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total 4.21 million barrels (0.67 million m3) of oil representing in excess of 89 percent of the original oil in place. For Runway field, the best CO{sub 2} flood is predicted to recover a total of 2.4 million barrels (0.38 million m3) of oil representing 71 percent of the original oil in place. If the CO{sub 2} flood performed as predicted, it is a financially robust process for increasing the reserves in the many small fields in the Paradox Basin. The results can be applied to other fields in the Rocky Mountain region, the Michigan and Illinois Basins, and the Midcontinent.

  16. Clinical Evaluation of Stereotactic Target Localization Using 3-Tesla MRI for Radiosurgery Planning

    SciTech Connect

    MacFadden, Derek [University of Toronto Faculty of Medicine, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zhang Beibei; Brock, Kristy K. [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Hodaie, Mojgan [Division of Neurosurgery, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, ON (Canada); Laperriere, Normand [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada); Schwartz, Michael [Division of Neurosurgery, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, ON (Canada); Tsao, May [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Regional Cancer Centre, Toronto, ON (Canada); Stainsby, Jeffrey [Applied Science Laboratories, GE Healthcare, Mississauga, ON (Canada); Lockwood, Gina [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Mikulis, David [Department of Medical Imaging, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Menard, Cynthia, E-mail: cynthia.menard@rmp.uhn.on.c [Radiation Medicine Program, Princess Margaret Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto, ON (Canada); Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2010-04-15

    Purpose: Increasing the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) field strength can improve image resolution and quality, but concerns remain regarding the influence on geometric fidelity. The objectives of the present study were to spatially investigate the effect of 3-Tesla (3T) MRI on clinical target localization for stereotactic radiosurgery. Methods and Materials: A total of 39 patients were enrolled in a research ethics board-approved prospective clinical trial. Imaging (1.5T and 3T MRI and computed tomography) was performed after stereotactic frame placement. Stereotactic target localization at 1.5T vs. 3T was retrospectively analyzed in a representative cohort of patients with tumor (n = 4) and functional (n = 5) radiosurgical targets. The spatial congruency of the tumor gross target volumes was determined by the mean discrepancy between the average gross target volume surfaces at 1.5T and 3T. Reproducibility was assessed by the displacement from an averaged surface and volume congruency. Spatial congruency and the reproducibility of functional radiosurgical targets was determined by comparing the mean and standard deviation of the isocenter coordinates. Results: Overall, the mean absolute discrepancy across all patients was 0.67 mm (95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.83), significantly <1 mm (p < .010). No differences were found in the overall interuser target volume congruence (mean, 84% for 1.5T vs. 84% for 3T, p > .4), and the gross target volume surface mean displacements were similar within and between users. The overall average isocenter coordinate discrepancy for the functional targets at 1.5T and 3T was 0.33 mm (95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.48), with no patient-specific differences between the mean values (p >.2) or standard deviations (p >.1). Conclusion: Our results have provided clinically relevant evidence supporting the spatial validity of 3T MRI for use in stereotactic radiosurgery under the imaging conditions used.

  17. Dosimetric Predictors of Laryngeal Edema

    SciTech Connect

    Sanguineti, Giuseppe . E-mail: gisangui@utmb.edu; Adapala, Prashanth; Endres, Eugene J. C; Brack, Collin; Fiorino, Claudio; Sormani, Maria Pia; Parker, Brent

    2007-07-01

    Purpose: To investigate dosimetric predictors of laryngeal edema after radiotherapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A total of 66 patients were selected who had squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck with grossly uninvolved larynx at the time of RT, no prior major surgical operation except for neck dissection and tonsillectomy, treatment planning data available for analysis, and at least one fiberoptic examination of the larynx within 2 years from RT performed by a single observer. Both the biologically equivalent mean dose at 2 Gy per fraction and the cumulative biologic dose-volume histogram of the larynx were extracted for each patient. Laryngeal edema was prospectively scored after treatment. Time to endpoint, moderate or worse laryngeal edema (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Grade 2+), was calculated with log rank test from the date of treatment end. Results: At a median follow-up of 17.1 months (range, 0.4- 50.0 months), the risk of Grade 2+ edema was 58.9% {+-} 7%. Mean dose to the larynx, V30, V40, V50, V60, and V70 were significantly correlated with Grade 2+ edema at univariate analysis. At multivariate analysis, mean laryngeal dose (continuum, hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.15; p < 0.001), and positive neck stage at RT (N0-x vs. N +, hazard ratio, 3.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-9.58; p = 0.008) were the only independent predictors. Further stratification showed that, to minimize the risk of Grade 2+ edema, the mean dose to the larynx has to be kept {<=}43.5 Gy at 2 Gy per fraction. Conclusion: Laryngeal edema is strictly correlated with various dosimetric parameters; mean dose to the larynx should be kept {<=}43.5 Gy.

  18. Randomized Noninferiority Trial of Reduced High-Dose Volume Versus Standard Volume Radiation Therapy for Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: Results of the BC2001 Trial (CRUK/01/004)

    SciTech Connect

    Huddart, Robert A.; Hall, Emma; Hussain, Syed A.; Jenkins, Peter; Rawlings, Christine; Tremlett, Jean; Crundwell, Malcolm; Adab, Fawzi A.; Sheehan, Denise; Syndikus, Isabel; Hendron, Carey; Lewis, Rebecca; Waters, Rachel; James, Nicholas D.

    2013-10-01

    Purpose: To test whether reducing radiation dose to uninvolved bladder while maintaining dose to the tumor would reduce side effects without impairing local control in the treatment of muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Methods and Materials: In this phase III multicenter trial, 219 patients were randomized to standard whole-bladder radiation therapy (sRT) or reduced high-dose volume radiation therapy (RHDVRT) that aimed to deliver full radiation dose to the tumor and 80% of maximum dose to the uninvolved bladder. Participants were also randomly assigned to receive radiation therapy alone or radiation therapy plus chemotherapy in a partial 2 2 factorial design. The primary endpoints for the radiation therapy volume comparison were late toxicity and time to locoregional recurrence (with a noninferiority margin of 10% at 2 years). Results: Overall incidence of late toxicity was less than predicted, with a cumulative 2-year Radiation Therapy Oncology Group grade 3/4 toxicity rate of 13% (95% confidence interval 8%, 20%) and no statistically significant differences between groups. The difference in 2-year locoregional recurrence free rate (RHDVRT ? sRT) was 6.4% (95% confidence interval ?7.3%, 16.8%) under an intention to treat analysis and 2.6% (?12.8%, 14.6%) in the per-protocol population. Conclusions: In this study RHDVRT did not result in a statistically significant reduction in late side effects compared with sRT, and noninferiority of locoregional control could not be concluded formally. However, overall low rates of clinically significant toxicity combined with low rates of invasive bladder cancer relapse confirm that (chemo)radiation therapy is a valid option for the treatment of muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

  19. Representative Doses to Members of the Public from Atmospheric Releases of 131I at the Mayak Production Association Facilities from 1948 through 1972

    SciTech Connect

    Eslinger, Paul W.; Napier, Bruce A.; Anspaugh, Lynn R.

    2014-04-03

    Scoping epidemiologic studies performed by researchers from the Southern Urals Biophysics Institute revealed an excess prevalence of thyroid nodules and an increased incidence of thyroid cancer among residents of Ozersk, Russia, who were born in the early 1950s. Ozersk is located about 5 km from the facilities where the Mayak Production Association produced nuclear materials for the Russian weapons program. Reactor operations began in June 1948 and chemical separation of plutonium from irradiated fuel began in February 1949. The U.S.–Russia Joint Coordinating Committee on Radiation Effects Research conducted a series of projects over a 10-year period to assess the radiation risks in the Southern Urals. This paper uses data collected under Committee projects to reconstruct individual time-dependent thyroid doses to reference individuals living in Ozersk from 131I released to the atmosphere. Between 3.22×1016 and 4.31×1016 Bq of 131I released may have been released during the 1948–1972 time period, and a best estimate is 3.76×1016 Bq. A child born in 1947 is estimated to have received a cumulative thyroid dose of 2.3 Gy for 1948–1972, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.51–7.3 Gy. Annual doses were the highest in 1949 and a child who was 5 years old in 1949 is estimated to have a received an annual thyroid dose of 0.93 Gy with a 95% confidence interval of 0.19–3.5 Gy.

  20. Retrospective Evaluation Reveals That Long-term Androgen Deprivation Therapy Improves Cause-Specific and Overall Survival in the Setting of Dose-Escalated Radiation for High-Risk Prostate Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Feng, Felix Y.; Blas, Kevin; Olson, Karin; Stenmark, Matthew; Sandler, Howard; Hamstra, Daniel A.

    2013-05-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the role of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and duration for high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis of high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with dose-escalated RT (minimum 75 Gy) with or without ADT was performed. The relationship between ADT use and duration with biochemical failure (BF), metastatic failure (MF), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), non-prostate cancer death (NPCD), and overall survival (OS) was assessed as a function of pretreatment characteristics, comorbid medical illness, and treatment using Fine and Gray's cumulative incidence methodology. Results: The median follow-up time was 64 months. In men with National Comprehensive Cancer Network defined high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated RT, on univariate analysis, both metastasis (P<.0001; hazard ratio 0.34; 95% confidence interval 0.18-0.67; cumulative incidence at 60 months 13% vs 35%) and PCSM (P=.015; hazard ratio 0.41; 95% confidence interval 0.2-1.0; cumulative incidence at 60 months 6% vs 11%) were improved with the use of ADT. On multivariate analysis for all high-risk patients, Gleason score was the strongest negative prognostic factor, and long-term ADT (LTAD) improved MF (P=.002), PCSM (P=.034), and OS (P=.001). In men with prostate cancer and Gleason scores 8 to 10, on multivariate analysis after adjustment for other risk features, there was a duration-dependent improvement in BF, metastasis, PCSM, and OS, all favoring LTAD in comparison with STAD or RT alone. Conclusion: For men with high-risk prostate cancer treated with dose-escalated EBRT, this retrospective study suggests that the combination of LTAD and RT provided a significant improvement in clinical outcome, which was especially true for those with Gleason scores of 8 to 10.

  1. X-Ray Cross-Complementing Group 1 and Thymidylate Synthase Polymorphisms Might Predict Response to Chemoradiotherapy in Rectal Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Lamas, Maria J.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: 5-Fluorouracil-based chemoradiotherapy before total mesorectal excision is currently the standard treatment of Stage II and III rectal cancer patients. We used known predictive pharmacogenetic biomarkers to identify the responders to preoperative chemoradiotherapy in our series. Methods and Materials: A total of 93 Stage II-III rectal cancer patients were genotyped using peripheral blood samples. The genes analyzed were X-ray cross-complementing group 1 (XRCC1), ERCC1, MTHFR, EGFR, DPYD, and TYMS. The patients were treated with 225 mg/m{sup 2}/d continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil concomitantly with radiotherapy (50.4 Gy) followed by total mesorectal excision. The outcomes were measured by tumor regression grade (TRG) as a major response (TRG 1 and TRG 2) or as a poor response (TRG3, TRG4, and TRG5). Results: The major histopathologic response rate was 47.3%. XRCC1 G/G carriers had a greater probability of response than G/A carriers (odds ratio, 4.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.62-10.74, p = .003) Patients with polymorphisms associated with high expression of thymidylate synthase (2R/3G, 3C/3G, and 3G/3G) showed a greater pathologic response rate compared with carriers of low expression (odds ratio, 2.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-6.39, p = .02) No significant differences were seen in the response according to EGFR, ERCC1, MTHFR{sub C}677 and MTHFR{sub A}1298 expression. Conclusions: XRCC1 G/G and thymidylate synthase (2R/3G, 3C/3G, and 3G/3G) are independent factors of a major response. Germline thymidylate synthase and XRCC1 polymorphisms might be useful as predictive markers of rectal tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy with 5-fluorouracil.

  2. Quality of Life Assessment After Concurrent Chemoradiation for Invasive Bladder Cancer: Results of a Multicenter Prospective Study (GETUG 97-015)

    SciTech Connect

    Lagrange, Jean-Leon; Bascoul-Mollevi, Caroline; Geoffrois, Lionnel; Beckendorf, Veronique; Ferrero, Jean-Marc; Joly, Florence; Allouache, Nedjila; Bachaud, Jean-Marc; Chevreau, Christine; Kramar, Andrew; Chauvet, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate bladder preservation and functional quality after concurrent chemoradiotherapy for muscle-invasive cancer in 53 patients included in a Phase II trial. Patient and Methods: Pelvic irradiation delivered 45Gy, followed by an 18-Gy boost. Concurrent chemotherapy with cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil by continuous infusion was performed at Weeks 1, 4, and 7 during radiotherapy. Patients initially suitable for surgery were evaluated with macroscopically complete transurethral resection after 45Gy, followed by radical cystectomy in case of incomplete response. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality of life questionnaire QLQ-C30, specific items on bladder function, and the Late Effects in Normal Tissues-Subjective, Objective, Management, and Analytic (LENT-SOMA) symptoms scale were used to evaluate quality of life before treatment and 6, 12, 24, and 36 months after treatment. Results: Median age was 68 years for 51 evaluable patients. Thirty-two percent of patients had T2a tumors, 46% T2b, 16% T3, and 6% T4. A visibly complete transurethral resection was possible in 66%. Median follow-up was 8 years. Bladder was preserved in 67% (95% confidence interval, 52-79%) of patients. Overall survival was 36% (95% confidence interval, 23-49%) at 8 years for all patients, and 45% (28-61%) for the 36 patients suitable for surgery. Satisfactory bladder function, according to LENT-SOMA, was reported for 100% of patients with preserved bladder and locally controlled disease 6-36 months after the beginning of treatment. Satisfactory bladder function was reported for 35% of patients before treatment and for 43%, 57%, and 29%, respectively, at 6, 18, and 36 months. Conclusions: Concurrent chemoradiation therapy allowed bladder preservation with tumor control for 67% patients at 8 years. Quality of life and quality of bladder function were satisfactory for 67% of patients.

  3. Outcomes of Children With Favorable Histology Wilms Tumor and Peritoneal Implants Treated in National Wilms Tumor Studies-4 and -5

    SciTech Connect

    Kalapurakal, John A.; Green, Daniel M.; Haase, Gerald; Anderson, James R.; Dome, Jeffrey S.; Grundy, Paul E.

    2010-06-01

    Purpose: There are no published reports on the optimal management and survival rates of children with Wilms tumor (WT) and peritoneal implants (PIs). Methods and Materials: Among favorable histology WT patients enrolled in the National Wilms Tumor Study (NWTS)-4 and NWTS-5, 57 children had PIs at the time of nephrectomy. The median age was 3 years 5 months (range, 3 months to 14 years). The majority of children (42 of 57 [74%)] had Stage III tumors; 15 had Stage IV disease. All patients received multimodality therapy. Of 56 children who underwent primary surgery, 48 (84%) had gross total resection of all tumors. All patients received 3-drug chemotherapy with vincristine, dactinomycin, and doxorubicin. Whole-abdomen radiotherapy (RT) was used in 47 patients (82%), and in 50 patients (88%) the RT dose was 10.5 Gy. Results: After a median follow-up of 7.5 years, the overall abdominal and systemic tumor control rates were 97% and 93%, respectively. A comparative analysis between children with PIs and those without PIs showed no significant differences in the clinical characteristics between the two groups. The 5-year event-free survival rates with and without PIs were 90% (95% confidence interval, 78-96%) and 83% (95% confidence interval, 81-85%) respectively (p = 0.20). Conclusions: Multimodality therapy with surgery, whole-abdomen RT, and three-drug chemotherapy delivered according to the NWTS-4 and -5 protocols resulted in excellent abdominal and systemic tumor control rates. All children should be monitored in long-term surveillance programs for the early detection and management of therapy-related toxicities.

  4. Assessing the credibility of the calorific value of municipal solid waste

    SciTech Connect

    Churney, K.L.; Domalski, E.S.; Ledford, A.E.; Colbert, J.C.; Bruce, S.S.; Buckley, T.J.; Paule, R.C.; Reilly, M.L.

    1984-02-01

    A study has been made at the National Bureau of Standards to establish the limits of reliability of the calorific value of municipal solid waste (MSW) determined by the bomb calorimetric procedure currently used in commercial test laboratories. This procedure involves using gram-size samples derived from MSW that has been processed down to a particle size of 2 mm or less. Critics of the procedure argue that gram-size samples are too small to be representative of such a large quantity of so heterogeneous a material, and that processing MSW may also alter its composition. To test the bomb calorimetric procedure, a 2.5 kg capacity combustion flow calorimeter was designed and constructed for the determination of the enthalpies of combustion of kilogram-size samples of MSW in flowing oxygen near atmospheric pressure. Calorimetric data on processed MSW were obtained using both the kilogram-size flow and a gram-size bomb calorimeter. Intercomparison of results shows that the calorific value (on a dry basis) of gram-size test samples agrees, within the uncertainty of our experiments, with the corresponding values for their kilogram-size parent samples provided that the sample division technique used to obtain the gram-size samples is that described in this work. The average difference of the parent minus gram-size sample values (on a dry basis) is -0.1% with an imprecision (95% confidence interval) of +-1.1% of the mean calorific value. The effects of processing on sample composition were determined by intercomparison of flow calorimetric results on kilogram-size samples of processed and minimally processed MSW (150 mm or less particle size) that are nominally identical. The average difference of the unprocessed minus processed values (on a dry basis) is -0.5% with an imprecision (95% confidence interval) of +-2.9% of the mean calorific value. 7 references, 4 figures, 10 tables.

  5. Propensity Score–Matched Analysis of Comprehensive Local Therapy for Oligometastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer That Did Not Progress After Front-Line Chemotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Sheu, Tommy; Heymach, John V.; Swisher, Stephen G.; Rao, Ganesh; Weinberg, Jeffrey S.; Mehran, Reza; McAleer, Mary Frances; Liao, Zhongxing; Aloia, Thomas A.; Gomez, Daniel R.

    2014-11-15

    Purpose: To retrospectively analyze factors influencing survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer presenting with ≤3 synchronous metastatic lesions. Methods and Materials: We identified 90 patients presenting between 1998 and 2012 with non-small cell lung cancer and ≤3 metastatic lesions who had received at least 2 cycles of chemotherapy followed by surgery or radiation therapy before disease progression. The median number of chemotherapy cycles before comprehensive local therapy (CLT) (including concurrent chemoradiation as first-line therapy) was 6. Factors potentially affecting overall (OS) or progression-free survival (PFS) were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards regression. Propensity score matching was used to assess the efficacy of CLT. Results: Median follow-up time was 46.6 months. Benefits in OS (27.1 vs 13.1 months) and PFS (11.3 months vs 8.0 months) were found with CLT, and the differences were statistically significant when propensity score matching was used (P ≤ .01). On adjusted analysis, CLT had a statistically significant benefit in terms of OS (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.70; P ≤ .01) but not PFS (P=.10). In an adjusted subgroup analysis of patients receiving CLT, favorable performance status (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.22-0.84; P=.01) was found to predict improved OS. Conclusions: Comprehensive local therapy was associated with improved OS in an adjusted analysis and seemed to favorably influence OS and PFS when factors such as N status, number of metastatic lesions, and disease sites were controlled for with propensity score–matched analysis. Patients with favorable performance status had improved outcomes with CLT. Ultimately, prospective, randomized trials are needed to provide definitive evidence as to the optimal treatment approach for this patient population.

  6. Tumor Epression of Major Vault Protein is an Adverse Prognostic Factor for Radiotherapy Outcome in Oropharyngeal Carcinoma

    SciTech Connect

    Silva, Priyamal; West, Catharine M.; Slevin, Nick F.R.C.R.; Valentine, Helen; Ryder, W. David J. Grad. I.S.; Hampson, Lynne; Bibi, Rufzan; Sloan, Philip; Thakker, Nalin; Homer, Jarrod; Hampson, Ian

    2007-09-01

    Purpose: Vaults are multi-subunit structures that may be involved in nucleo-cytoplasmic transport, with the major vault protein (MVP or lung resistance-related protein [LRP]) being the main component. The MVP gene is located on chromosome 16 close to the multidrug resistance-associated protein and protein kinase c-{beta} genes. The role of MVP in cancer drug resistance has been demonstrated in various cell lines as well as in ovarian carcinomas and acute myeloid leukemia, but nothing is known about its possible role in radiation resistance. Our aim was to examine this in head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Methods and Materials: Archived biopsy material was obtained for 78 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx who received primary radiotherapy with curative intent. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect MVP expression. Locoregional failure and cancer-specific survival were estimated using cumulative incidence and Cox multivariate analyses. Results: In a univariate and multivariate analysis, MVP expression was strongly associated with both locoregional failure and cancer-specific survival. After adjustment for disease site, stage, grade, anemia, smoking, alcohol, gender, and age, the estimated hazard ratio for high MVP (2/3) compared with low (0/1) was 4.98 (95% confidence interval, 2.17-11.42; p 0.0002) for locoregional failure and 4.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.85-9.95; p = 0.001) for cancer-specific mortality. Conclusion: These data are the first to show that MVP may be a useful prognostic marker associated with radiotherapy resistance in a subgroup of patients with HNSCC.

  7. Toward a Classical Thermodynamic Model for Retro-cognition

    SciTech Connect

    May, Edwin C.

    2011-11-29

    Retro-cognition--a human response before a randomly determined future stimulus--has always been part of our experience. Experiments over the last 80 years show a small but statistically significant effect. If this turns out to be true, then it suggests a form of macroscopic retro-causation. The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics provides an explanation for the apparent single direction of time at the macroscopic level although time is reversible at the microscopic level. In a preliminary study, I examined seven anomalous cognition (a.k.a., ESP) studies in which the entropic gradients and the entropy of their associated target systems were calculated, and the quality of the response was estimated by a rating system called the figure of merit. The combined Spearman's correlation coefficient for these variables for the seven studies was 0.211 (p = 6.4x10{sup -4}) with a 95% confidence interval for the correlation of [0.084, 0.332]; whereas, the same data for a correlation with the entropy itself was 0.028 (p = 0.36; 95% confidence interval of [-0.120-0.175]). This suggests that anomalous cognition is mediated via some kind of a sensory system in that all the normal sensory systems are more sensitive to changes than they are to inputs that are not changing. A standard relationship for the change of entropy of a binary sequence appears to provide an upper limit to anomalous cognition functioning for free response and for forced-choice Zener card guessing. This entropic relation and an apparent limit set by the entropy may provide a clue for understanding macroscopic retro-causation.

  8. XRCC1 Polymorphism Associated With Late Toxicity After Radiation Therapy in Breast Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Seibold, Petra; Behrens, Sabine; Schmezer, Peter; Helmbold, Irmgard; Barnett, Gillian; Coles, Charlotte; Yarnold, John; Talbot, Christopher J.; Imai, Takashi; Azria, David; Koch, C. Anne; Dunning, Alison M.; Burnet, Neil; Bliss, Judith M.; Symonds, R. Paul; Rattay, Tim; Suga, Tomo; Kerns, Sarah L.; and others

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: To identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in oxidative stress–related genes associated with risk of late toxicities in breast cancer patients receiving radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Using a 2-stage design, 305 SNPs in 59 candidate genes were investigated in the discovery phase in 753 breast cancer patients from 2 prospective cohorts from Germany. The 10 most promising SNPs in 4 genes were evaluated in the replication phase in up to 1883 breast cancer patients from 6 cohorts identified through the Radiogenomics Consortium. Outcomes of interest were late skin toxicity and fibrosis of the breast, as well as an overall toxicity score (Standardized Total Average Toxicity). Multivariable logistic and linear regression models were used to assess associations between SNPs and late toxicity. A meta-analysis approach was used to summarize evidence. Results: The association of a genetic variant in the base excision repair gene XRCC1, rs2682585, with normal tissue late radiation toxicity was replicated in all tested studies. In the combined analysis of discovery and replication cohorts, carrying the rare allele was associated with a significantly lower risk of skin toxicities (multivariate odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.61-0.96, P=.02) and a decrease in Standardized Total Average Toxicity scores (−0.08, 95% confidence interval −0.15 to −0.02, P=.016). Conclusions: Using a stage design with replication, we identified a variant allele in the base excision repair gene XRCC1 that could be used in combination with additional variants for developing a test to predict late toxicities after radiation therapy in breast cancer patients.

  9. Can nontriggered thoracic CT be used for coronary artery calcium scoring? A phantom study

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Xueqian; Greuter, Marcel J. W.; Groen, Jaap M.; Bock, Geertruida H. de; Oudkerk, Matthijs; Jong, Pim A. de; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn

    2013-08-15

    Purpose: Coronary artery calcium score, traditionally based on electrocardiography (ECG)-triggered computed tomography (CT), predicts cardiovascular risk. However, nontriggered CT is extensively utilized. The study-purpose is to evaluate the in vitro agreement in coronary calcium score between nontriggered thoracic CT and ECG-triggered cardiac CT.Methods: Three artificial coronary arteries containing calcifications of different densities (high, medium, and low), and sizes (large, medium, and small), were studied in a moving cardiac phantom. Two 64-detector CT systems were used. The phantom moved at 0–90 mm/s in nontriggered low-dose CT as index test, and at 0–30 mm/s in ECG-triggered CT as reference. Differences in calcium scores between nontriggered and ECG-triggered CT were analyzed by t-test and 95% confidence interval. The sensitivity to detect calcification was calculated as the percentage of positive calcium scores.Results: Overall, calcium scores in nontriggered CT were not significantly different to those in ECG-triggered CT (p > 0.05). Calcium scores in nontriggered CT were within the 95% confidence interval of calcium scores in ECG-triggered CT, except predominantly at higher velocities (≥50 mm/s) for the high-density and large-size calcifications. The sensitivity for a nonzero calcium score was 100% for large calcifications, but 46%± 11% for small calcifications in nontriggered CT.Conclusions: When performing multiple measurements, good agreement in positive calcium scores is found between nontriggered thoracic and ECG-triggered cardiac CT. Agreement decreases with increasing coronary velocity. From this phantom study, it can be concluded that a high calcium score can be detected by nontriggered CT, and thus, that nontriggered CT likely can identify individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease. On the other hand, a zero calcium score in nontriggered CT does not reliably exclude coronary calcification.

  10. Role of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in ypT0-2N0 Patients Treated with Preoperative Chemoradiation Therapy and Radical Resection for Rectal Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Park, In Ja; Kim, Dae Yong; Kim, Hee Cheol; Kim, Nam Kyu; Kim, Hyeong-Rok; Kang, Sung-Bum; Choi, Gyu-Seog; Lee, Kang Young; Kim, Seon-Hahn; Oh, Seung Taek; Lim, Seok-Byung; Kim, Jin Cheon; Oh, Jae Hwan; Kim, Sun Young; Lee, Woo Yong; Lee, Jung Bok; Yu, Chang Sik

    2015-07-01

    Objective: To explore the role of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with ypT0-2N0 rectal cancer treated by preoperative chemoradiation therapy (PCRT) and radical resection. Patients and Methods: A national consortium of 10 institutions was formed, and patients with ypT0-2N0 mid- and low-rectal cancer after PCRT and radical resection from 2004 to 2009 were included. Patients were categorized into 2 groups according to receipt of additional adjuvant chemotherapy: Adj CTx (+) versus Adj CTx (−). Propensity scores were calculated and used to perform matched and adjusted analyses comparing relapse-free survival (RFS) between treatment groups while controlling for potential confounding. Results: A total of 1016 patients, who met the selection criteria, were evaluated. Of these, 106 (10.4%) did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. There was no overall improvement in 5-year RFS as a result of adjuvant chemotherapy [91.6% for Adj CTx (+) vs 87.5% for Adj CTx (−), P=.18]. There were no differences in 5-year local recurrence and distant metastasis rate between the 2 groups. In patients who show moderate, minimal, or no regression in tumor regression grade, however, possible association of adjuvant chemotherapy with RFS would be considered (hazard ratio 0.35; 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.88; P=.03). Cox regression analysis after propensity score matching failed to show that addition of adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved RFS (hazard ratio 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.39-1.70; P=.58). Conclusions: Adjuvant chemotherapy seemed to not influence the RFS of patients with ypT0-2N0 rectal cancer after PCRT followed by radical resection. Thus, the addition of adjuvant chemotherapy needs to be weighed against its oncologic benefits.

  11. CANDIDATE PLANETS IN THE HABITABLE ZONES OF KEPLER STARS

    SciTech Connect

    Gaidos, Eric

    2013-06-20

    A key goal of the Kepler mission is the discovery of Earth-size transiting planets in ''habitable zones'' where stellar irradiance maintains a temperate climate on an Earth-like planet. Robust estimates of planet radius and irradiance require accurate stellar parameters, but most Kepler systems are faint, making spectroscopy difficult and prioritization of targets desirable. The parameters of 2035 host stars were estimated by Bayesian analysis and the probabilities p{sub HZ} that 2738 candidate or confirmed planets orbit in the habitable zone were calculated. Dartmouth Stellar Evolution Program models were compared to photometry from the Kepler Input Catalog, priors for stellar mass, age, metallicity and distance, and planet transit duration. The analysis yielded probability density functions for calculating confidence intervals of planet radius and stellar irradiance, as well as p{sub HZ}. Sixty-two planets have p{sub HZ} > 0.5 and a most probable stellar irradiance within habitable zone limits. Fourteen of these have radii less than twice the Earth; the objects most resembling Earth in terms of radius and irradiance are KOIs 2626.01 and 3010.01, which orbit late K/M-type dwarf stars. The fraction of Kepler dwarf stars with Earth-size planets in the habitable zone ({eta}{sub Circled-Plus }) is 0.46, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.31-0.64. Parallaxes from the Gaia mission will reduce uncertainties by more than a factor of five and permit definitive assignments of transiting planets to the habitable zones of Kepler stars.

  12. Methods for measuring lead concentrations in paint films

    SciTech Connect

    McKnight, M.E.; Byrd, W.E.; Roberts, W.E.; Lagergren, E.S.

    1989-12-01

    Recent legislation required the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to establish procedures to abate lead-based paint in existing HUD-assisted housing. The legislation also required HUD to assess the accuracy, precision, reliability, and safety of methods for measuring lead content of paint films and to investigate the availability of testers and samplers. The National Institute of Standards and Technology was requested to carry out the assessment. With regard to accuracy and precision of field measurements, it was concluded that: chemical spot tests when carried out by an experienced analytical chemistry technician can detect the presence of lead in paint films having concentrations in excess of 1 mg/sq cm about 90% of the time; the estimate of the precision of a field measurement procedure using lead-specific portable X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzers for lead concentrations near 1 mg/sq cm is + or - 0.6 mg/sq cm and the estimate of the bias is 0.2 mg/sq cm; this results in a 95% confidence interval of + or - 1.4 mg/sq cm; and based upon very preliminary measurements using the latest version of the spectrum analyzer portable XRF, the 95% confidence interval for field measurements is estimated to be + or - 0.5 mg/sq cm. In addition to field methods, standard laboratory procedures can be used to measure the lead content of paint samples to within a few percent of the quantity present over a wide range extending from less than 0.1 to over 10 mg/sq cm. Sample collection and sample dissolution procedures were also investigated.

  13. TEST OF THE HEMISPHERIC RULE OF MAGNETIC HELICITY IN THE SUN USING THE HELIOSEISMIC AND MAGNETIC IMAGER (HMI) DATA

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Y.; Hoeksema, J. T.; Sun, X.

    2014-03-01

    Magnetic twist in solar active regions (ARs) has been found to have a hemispheric preference in sign (hemisphere rule): negative in the northern hemisphere and positive in the southern. The preference reported in previous studies ranges greatly, from ? 58% to 82%. In this study, we examine this hemispheric preference using vector magnetic field data taken by Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager and find that 75% 7% of 151ARs studied obey the hemisphere rule, well within the preference range in previous studies. If the sample is divided into two groupsARs having magnetic twist and writhe of the same sign and having opposite signsthe strength of the hemispheric preference differs substantially: 64% 11% for the former group and 87% 8% for the latter. This difference becomes even more significant in a sub-sample of 82ARs having a simple bipole magnetic configuration: 56% 16% for theARs having the same signs of twist and writhe, and 93% with lower and upper confidence bounds of 80% and 98% for theARs having the opposite signs. The error reported here is a 95% confidence interval. This may suggest that, prior to emergence of magnetic tubes, either the sign of twist does not have a hemispheric preference or the twist is relatively weak.

  14. COMPARISON OF RESULTS FOR QUARTER 2 SURFACE WATER SPLIT SAMPLES COLLECTED AT THE NUCLEAR FUEL SERVICES SITE, ERWIN, TENNESSEE

    SciTech Connect

    2013-01-21

    Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, collected split surface water samples with Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) representatives on November 15, 2012. Representatives from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation were also in attendance. Samples were collected at four surface water stations, as required in the approved Request for Technical Assistance number 11-018. These stations included Nolichucky River upstream (NRU), Nolichucky River downstream (NRD), Martin Creek upstream (MCU), and Martin Creek downstream (MCD). Both ORAU and NFS performed gross alpha and gross beta analyses, and the results are compared using the duplicate error ratio (DER), also known as the normalized absolute difference. A DER {<=} 3 indicates that, at a 99% confidence interval, split sample results do not differ significantly when compared to their respective one standard deviation (sigma) uncertainty (ANSI N42.22). The NFS split sample report does not specify the confidence level of reported uncertainties (NFS 2012). Therefore, standard two sigma reporting is assumed and uncertainty values were divided by 1.96. In conclusion, all DER values were less than 3 and results are consistent with low (e.g., background) concentrations.

  15. Snake River Plain Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis - Phase 1 Raster Files

    DOE Data Explorer

    John Shervais

    2015-10-09

    Snake River Plain Play Fairway Analysis - Phase 1 CRS Raster Files. This dataset contains raster files created in ArcGIS. These raster images depict Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for HEAT, PERMEABILITY, AND SEAL, as well as selected maps of Evidence Layers. These evidence layers consist of either Bayesian krige functions or kernel density functions, and include: (1) HEAT: Heat flow (Bayesian krige map), Heat flow standard error on the krige function (data confidence), volcanic vent distribution as function of age and size, groundwater temperature (equivalue interval and natural breaks bins), and groundwater T standard error. (2) PERMEABILTY: Fault and lineament maps, both as mapped and as kernel density functions, processed for both dilational tendency (TD) and slip tendency (ST), along with data confidence maps for each data type. Data types include mapped surface faults from USGS and Idaho Geological Survey data bases, as well as unpublished mapping; lineations derived from maximum gradients in magnetic, deep gravity, and intermediate depth gravity anomalies. (3) SEAL: Seal maps based on presence and thickness of lacustrine sediments and base of SRP aquifer. Raster size is 2 km. All files generated in ArcGIS.

  16. ON COMPUTING UPPER LIMITS TO SOURCE INTENSITIES

    SciTech Connect

    Kashyap, Vinay L.; Siemiginowska, Aneta [Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Van Dyk, David A.; Xu Jin [Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697-1250 (United States); Connors, Alanna [Eureka Scientific, 2452 Delmer Street, Suite 100, Oakland, CA 94602-3017 (United States); Freeman, Peter E. [Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Zezas, Andreas, E-mail: vkashyap@cfa.harvard.ed, E-mail: asiemiginowska@cfa.harvard.ed, E-mail: dvd@ics.uci.ed, E-mail: jinx@ics.uci.ed, E-mail: aconnors@eurekabayes.co, E-mail: pfreeman@cmu.ed, E-mail: azezas@cfa.harvard.ed [Physics Department, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, GR-710 03, Heraklion, Crete (Greece)

    2010-08-10

    A common problem in astrophysics is determining how bright a source could be and still not be detected in an observation. Despite the simplicity with which the problem can be stated, the solution involves complicated statistical issues that require careful analysis. In contrast to the more familiar confidence bound, this concept has never been formally analyzed, leading to a great variety of often ad hoc solutions. Here we formulate and describe the problem in a self-consistent manner. Detection significance is usually defined by the acceptable proportion of false positives (background fluctuations that are claimed as detections, or Type I error), and we invoke the complementary concept of false negatives (real sources that go undetected, or Type II error), based on the statistical power of a test, to compute an upper limit to the detectable source intensity. To determine the minimum intensity that a source must have for it to be detected, we first define a detection threshold and then compute the probabilities of detecting sources of various intensities at the given threshold. The intensity that corresponds to the specified Type II error probability defines that minimum intensity and is identified as the upper limit. Thus, an upper limit is a characteristic of the detection procedure rather than the strength of any particular source. It should not be confused with confidence intervals or other estimates of source intensity. This is particularly important given the large number of catalogs that are being generated from increasingly sensitive surveys. We discuss, with examples, the differences between these upper limits and confidence bounds. Both measures are useful quantities that should be reported in order to extract the most science from catalogs, though they answer different statistical questions: an upper bound describes an inference range on the source intensity, while an upper limit calibrates the detection process. We provide a recipe for computing upper

  17. Search for decays of stopped long-lived particles produced in protonproton collisions at ?s = 8 TeV

    SciTech Connect

    Khachatryan, V.

    2015-04-11

    A search has been performed for long-lived particles that could have come to rest within the CMS detector, using the time intervals between LHC beam crossings. The existence of such particles could be deduced from observation of their decays via energy deposits in the CMS calorimeter appearing at times that are well separated from any protonproton collisions. Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.6fb? of 8TeV protonproton collisions, and a search interval corresponding to 281 h of trigger livetime, 10 events are observed, with a background prediction of 13.2+3.62.5 events. Limits are presented at 95 % confidence level on gluino and top squark production, for over 13 orders of magnitude in the mean proper lifetime of the stopped particle. Assuming a cloud model of R-hadron interactions, a gluino with mass ?1000GeV and a top squark with mass ?525GeV are excluded, for lifetimes between 1 ?s and 1000s. These results are the most stringent constraints on stopped particles to date.

  18. Search for decays of stopped long-lived particles produced in protonproton collisions at ?s = 8 TeV

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Khachatryan, V.

    2015-04-11

    A search has been performed for long-lived particles that could have come to rest within the CMS detector, using the time intervals between LHC beam crossings. The existence of such particles could be deduced from observation of their decays via energy deposits in the CMS calorimeter appearing at times that are well separated from any protonproton collisions. Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.6fb? of 8TeV protonproton collisions, and a search interval corresponding to 281 h of trigger livetime, 10 events are observed, with a background prediction of 13.2+3.62.5 events. Limits are presented at 95 %moreconfidence level on gluino and top squark production, for over 13 orders of magnitude in the mean proper lifetime of the stopped particle. Assuming a cloud model of R-hadron interactions, a gluino with mass ?1000GeV and a top squark with mass ?525GeV are excluded, for lifetimes between 1 ?s and 1000s. These results are the most stringent constraints on stopped particles to date.less

  19. Search for decays of stopped long-lived particles produced in proton–proton collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}= 8\\,\\text {TeV} $$

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Khachatryan, Vardan

    2015-04-11

    A search has been performed for long-lived particles that could have come to rest within the CMS detector, using the time intervals between LHC beam crossings. The existence of such particles could be deduced from observation of their decays via energy deposits in the CMS calorimeter appearing at times that are well separated from any proton–proton collisions. Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 18.6 fb-1 of 8 TeV proton–proton collisions, and a search interval corresponding to 281 h of trigger livetime, 10 events are observed, with a background prediction of 13.2+3.6 -2.5 events. Limits are presentedmore » at 95 % confidence level on gluino and top squark production, for over 13 orders of magnitude in the mean proper lifetime of the stopped particle. Assuming a cloud model of R-hadron interactions, a gluino with mass ≤1000 GeV and a top squark with mass ≤525 GeV are excluded, for lifetimes between 1 µs and 1000 s. Finally, these results are the most stringent constraints on stopped particles to date.« less

  20. Role of Salvage Radiation Therapy for Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Hodgkin Lymphoma Who Failed Autologous Stem Cell Transplant

    SciTech Connect

    Goda, Jayant S.; Massey, Christine; Kuruvilla, John; Gospodarowicz, Mary K.; Wells, Woodrow; Hodgson, David C.; Sun, Alexander; Keating, Armand; Crump, Michael; Tsang, Richard W.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: To analyze, through chart review, the efficacy of salvage radiation therapy (sRT) for relapsed or progressive Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients who failed autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT). Patients and Methods: Among 347 patients with recurrent/refractory HL who received ASCT from 1986-2006, 163 had post-ASCT progression or relapse. Of these, 56 received sRT and form the basis of this report. Median age at sRT was 30 years (range, 17-59 years). Disease was confined to lymph nodes in 27 patients, whereas 24 had both nodal and extranodal disease. Salvage radiation therapy alone was given in 34 patients (61%), and sRT plus chemotherapy was given in 22 (39%). Median interval from ASCT to sRT was 0.8 years (range, 0.1-5.6 years). The median dose was 35 Gy (range, 8-40.3 Gy). The sRT technique was extended-field in 14 patients (25%) and involved-field in 42 (75%). Results: The median follow-up from sRT was 31.3 months (range, 0.2-205.5 months). Overall response rate was 84% (complete response: 36%; partial response: 48%). The median overall survival was 40.8 months (95% confidence interval, 34.2-56.3 months). The 5-year overall survival was 29% (95% confidence interval, 14%-44%). The 2-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 16%; the 2-year local PFS was 65%, whereas the 2-year systemic PFS was 17%. The 1-year PFS was higher in patients in whom all diseased sites were irradiated (49%) compared with those in whom only the symptomatic site was treated (22%, P=.07). Among 20 alive patients, 5 were disease free (at 6.4, 6.8, 7.4, 7.9, and 17.1 years). Conclusion: For patients with HL who fail ASCT, a selective use of RT provides a durable local control rate of 65% at 2 years and should be considered as part of the standard management plan for the palliation of incurable HL. Occasionally irradiation of truly localized disease can lead to long-term survival.

  1. sequoia

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    shift in emphasis from test-based confidence to simulation-based confidence. Under ASC, computer simulation capabilities are developed to analyze and predict the performance,...

  2. cielo

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    shift in emphasis from test-based confidence to simulation-based confidence. Under ASC, computer simulation capabilities are developed to analyze and predict the performance,...

  3. COMPARISON OF RESULTS FOR QUARTER 4 SURFACE WATER SPLIT SAMPLES COLLECTED AT THE NUCLEAR FUELS SERVICES SITE, ERWIN, TN

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2013-08-15

    Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, collected split surface water samples with Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) representatives on June 12, 2013. Representatives from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation were also in attendance. Samples were collected at four surface water stations, as required in the approved Request for Technical Assistance number 11-018. These stations included Nolichucky River upstream (NRU), Nolichucky River downstream (NRD), Martin Creek upstream (MCU), and Martin Creek downstream (MCD). Both ORAU and NFS performed gross alpha and gross beta analyses, and Table 1 presents the comparison of results using the duplicate error ratio (DER), also known as the normalized absolute difference. A DER ≤ 3 indicates at a 99% confidence interval that split sample results do not differ significantly when compared to their respective one standard deviation (sigma) uncertainty (ANSI N42.22). The NFS split sample report specifies 95% confidence level of reported uncertainties (NFS 2013). Therefore, standard two sigma reporting values were divided by 1.96. In conclusion, most DER values were less than 3 and results are consistent with low (e.g., background) concentrations. The gross beta result for sample 5198W0014 was the exception. The ORAU gross beta result of 6.30 ± 0.65 pCi/L from location NRD is well above NFS's non-detected result of 1.56 ± 0.59 pCi/L. NFS's data package includes no detected result for any radionuclide at location NRD. At NRC's request, ORAU performed gamma spectroscopic analysis of sample 5198W0014 to identify analytes contributing to the relatively elevated gross beta results. This analysis identified detected amounts of naturally-occurring constituents, most notably Ac-228 from the thorium decay series, and does not suggest the presence of site-related contamination.

  4. The Gemini NICI planet-finding campaign: the orbit of the young exoplanet ? Pictoris b

    SciTech Connect

    Nielsen, Eric L.; Liu, Michael C.; Chun, Mark; Ftaclas, Christ; Wahhaj, Zahed; Biller, Beth A.; Hayward, Thomas L.; Kuchner, Marc J.; Rodigas, Timothy J.; Toomey, Douglas W.

    2014-10-20

    We present new astrometry for the young (12-21 Myr) exoplanet ? Pictoris b taken with the Gemini/NICI and Magellan/MagAO instruments between 2009 and 2012. The high dynamic range of our observations allows us to measure the relative position of ? Pic b with respect to its primary star with greater accuracy than previous observations. Based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis, we find the planet has an orbital semi-major axis of 9.1{sub ?0.5}{sup +5.3} AU and orbital eccentricity <0.15 at 68% confidence (with 95% confidence intervals of 8.2-48 AU and 0.00-0.82 for semi-major axis and eccentricity, respectively, due to a long narrow degenerate tail between the two). We find that the planet has reached its maximum projected elongation, enabling higher precision determination of the orbital parameters than previously possible, and that the planet's projected separation is currently decreasing. With unsaturated data of the entire ? Pic system (primary star, planet, and disk) obtained thanks to NICI's semi-transparent focal plane mask, we are able to tightly constrain the relative orientation of the circumstellar components. We find the orbital plane of the planet lies between the inner and outer disks: the position angle (P.A.) of nodes for the planet's orbit (211.8 0.3) is 7.4? greater than the P.A. of the spine of the outer disk and 3.2? less than the warped inner disk P.A., indicating the disk is not collisionally relaxed. Finally, for the first time we are able to dynamically constrain the mass of the primary star ? Pic to 1.76{sub ?0.17}{sup +0.18} M {sub ?}.

  5. Comparison of Results for Quarter 1 Surface Water Split Samples Collected at the Nuclear Fuel Services Site, Erwin, Tennessee

    SciTech Connect

    David A. King, CHP, PMP

    2012-10-10

    Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, collected split surface water samples with Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) representatives on August 22, 2012. Representatives from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation were also in attendance. Samples were collected at four surface water stations, as required in the approved Request for Technical Assistance number 11-018. These stations included Nolichucky River upstream (NRU), Nolichucky River downstream (NRD), Martin Creek upstream (MCU), and Martin Creek downstream (MCD). Both ORAU and NFS performed gross alpha and gross beta analyses. The comparison of results using the duplicate error ratio (DER), also known as the normalized absolute difference. A DER ≤ 3 indicates that, at a 99% confidence interval, split sample results do not differ significantly when compared to their respective one standard deviation (sigma) uncertainty. The NFS split sample report does not specify the confidence level of reported uncertainties. Therefore, standard two sigma reporting is assumed and uncertainty values were divided by 1.96. A comparison of split sample results, using the DER equation, indicates one set with a DER greater than 3. A DER of 3.1 is calculated for gross alpha results from ORAU sample 5198W0003 and NFS sample MCU-310212003. The ORAU result is 0.98 ± 0.30 pCi/L (value ± 2 sigma) compared to the NFS result of -0.08 ± 0.60 pCi/L. Relatively high DER values are not unexpected for low (e.g., background) analyte concentrations analyzed by separate laboratories, as is the case here. It is noted, however, NFS uncertainties are at least twice the ORAU uncertainties, which contributes to the elevated DER value. Differences in ORAU and NFS minimum detectable activities are even more pronounced. comparison of ORAU and NFS split samples produces reasonably consistent results for low (e.g., background

  6. Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Cheng, Lijing; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Palmer, Matthew D.; Zhu, Jiang; Abraham, John P.

    2016-07-26

    Greenhouse-gas emissions have created a planetary energy imbalance that is primarily manifested by increasing ocean heat content (OHC). Updated observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 are presented that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and biases. The full-depth OHC has increased by 0.74 [0.68, 0.80]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.46 Wm−2) and 1.22 [1.16–1.29]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.75 Wm−2) for 1970–2005 and 1992–2005, respectively, with a 5 to 95 % confidence interval of the median. The CMIP5 models show large spread in OHC changes, suggesting that some models are not state-of-the-art and require further improvements. However, the ensemble median has excellent agreement with our observational estimate:more » 0.68 [0.54–0.82]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.42 Wm−2) from 1970 to 2005 and 1.25 [1.10–1.41]  ×  1022 J yr−1 (0.77 Wm−2) from 1992 to 2005. These results increase confidence in both the observational and model estimates to quantify and study changes in Earth's energy imbalance over the historical period. We suggest that OHC be a fundamental metric for climate model validation and evaluation, especially for forced changes (decadal timescales).« less

  7. THE FERMI-GBM X-RAY BURST MONITOR: THERMONUCLEAR BURSTS FROM 4U 0614+09

    SciTech Connect

    Linares, M.; Chakrabarty, D. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Connaughton, V.; Bhat, P. N.; Briggs, M. S.; Preece, R. [CSPAR and Physics Department, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL 35899 (United States); Jenke, P.; Kouveliotou, C.; Wilson-Hodge, C. A. [Space Science Office, VP62, NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 35812 (United States); Van der Horst, A. J. [Astronomical Institute 'Anton Pannekoek', University of Amsterdam, NL-1090-GE Amsterdam (Netherlands); Camero-Arranz, A.; Finger, M.; Paciesas, W. S. [Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 35805 (United States); Beklen, E. [Physics Department, Suleyman Demirel University, 32260 Isparta (Turkey); Von Kienlin, A. [Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Giessenbachstrasse, Postfach 1312, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2012-12-01

    Thermonuclear bursts from slowly accreting neutron stars (NSs) have proven difficult to detect, yet they are potential probes of the thermal properties of the NS interior. During the first year of a systematic all-sky search for X-ray bursts using the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor aboard the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope we have detected 15 thermonuclear bursts from the NS low-mass X-ray binary 4U 0614+09 when it was accreting at nearly 1% of the Eddington limit. We measured an average burst recurrence time of 12 {+-} 3 days (68% confidence interval) between 2010 March and 2011 March, classified all bursts as normal duration bursts and placed a lower limit on the recurrence time of long/intermediate bursts of 62 days (95% confidence level). We discuss how observations of thermonuclear bursts in the hard X-ray band compare to pointed soft X-ray observations and quantify such bandpass effects on measurements of burst radiated energy and duration. We put our results for 4U 0614+09 in the context of other bursters and briefly discuss the constraints on ignition models. Interestingly, we find that the burst energies in 4U 0614+09 are on average between those of normal duration bursts and those measured in long/intermediate bursts. Such a continuous distribution in burst energy provides a new observational link between normal and long/intermediate bursts. We suggest that the apparent bimodal distribution that defined normal and long/intermediate duration bursts during the last decade could be due to an observational bias toward detecting only the longest and most energetic bursts from slowly accreting NSs.

  8. Clinal morphological variation along a depth gradient in the living scleractinian reef coral Favia pallida: Effects on perceived evolutionary tempos in the fossil record

    SciTech Connect

    Cuffey, R.J. ); Pachut, J.F. )

    1990-12-01

    The Holocene reef-building coral Favia pallida was sampled at 4.5 m depth increments (to 40 m) from two reefs on Enewetak Atoll to examine intraspecific environmental effects. An exposed outer reef was massive and wall-like, whereas a sheltered lagoonal reef grew as a slender pinnacle. Corallite diameter and growth rate, two attributes retrievable in fossil corals, were measured with data partitioned into shallow (<20 m), intermediate (20 to 29 m), and deep-water (>29 m) subsets. Highly significant differences between depth zone populations were found for both corallite diameters and growth rates in analyses of individual and combined reef data sets. Canonical variates analyses (CVA) separated populations from depth zones along single, highly significant, functions. Centroids and 95% confidence intervals, calculated from CVA scores of colonies in each population, are widely separated for the lagoon reef and combined data sets. Conversely, populations from shallow and intermediate depths on the outer reef display overlapping confidence bars indicative of more gradational morphologic changes. When CV's were used to classify specimens to groups, misassignments of intermediate depth specimens to shallow or deep-water populations underscored the gradational nature of the environment. Completely intergrading populations of Favia pallida collected from different depths can be morphologically separated into statistically distinct groupings. A stratigraphic succession of such morphotypes might be interpreted as abruptly appearing separate species if sampling were not as uniform, systematic, and detailed as was possible on modern reefs. Analyses of evolutionary patterns must carefully assess potential effects of clinal variation if past evolutionary patterns are to be interpreted correctly.

  9. Measurement of CP violation observables and parameters for the decays $B^{\\pm}\\to DK^{*\\pm}$

    SciTech Connect

    Aubert, Bernard; Karyotakis, Y.; Lees, J.P.; Poireau, V.; Prencipe, E.; Prudent, X.; Tisserand, V.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Martinelli, M.; Palano, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; Sun, L.; Battaglia, M.; Brown, D.N.; Kerth, L.T.; Kolomensky, Yu.G.; Lynch, G.; Osipenkov, I.L.; /UC, Berkeley /Birmingham U. /Ruhr U., Bochum /British Columbia U. /Brunel U. /Novosibirsk, IYF /UC, Irvine /UC, Riverside /UC, San Diego /UC, Santa Barbara /UC, Santa Cruz /Caltech /Cincinnati U. /Colorado U. /Colorado State U. /Dortmund U. /Dresden, Tech. U. /Ecole Polytechnique /Edinburgh U. /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /Frascati /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /Harvard U. /Heidelberg U. /Humboldt U., Berlin /Imperial Coll., London /Iowa State U. /Iowa State U. /Johns Hopkins U. /Orsay, LAL /LLNL, Livermore /Liverpool U. /Queen Mary, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Louisville U. /Mainz U., Inst. Kernphys. /Manchester U. /Maryland U. /Massachusetts U., Amherst /MIT /McGill U. /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /INFN, Milan /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /Mississippi U. /Montreal U. /Mt. Holyoke Coll. /INFN, Naples /Naples U. /INFN, Naples /INFN, Naples /Naples U. /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /Notre Dame U. /Ohio State U. /Oregon U. /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /INFN, Padua /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /Paris U., VI-VII /Pennsylvania U. /INFN, Perugia /Perugia U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa, Scuola Normale Superiore /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Princeton U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /Rostock U. /Rutherford /DAPNIA, Saclay /SLAC /South Carolina U. /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /SUNY, Albany /Tel Aviv U. /Tennessee U. /Texas U. /Texas U., Dallas /INFN, Turin /Turin U. /INFN, Trieste /Trieste U. /Valencia U. /Victoria U. /Warwick U. /Wisconsin U., Madison

    2010-08-26

    We study the decay B{sup -} {yields} DK*{sup -} using a sample of 379 x 10{sup 6} {Upsilon}(4S) {yields} B{bar B} events collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II B-factory. We perform a 'GLW' analysis where the D meson decays into either a CP-even (CP+) eigenstate (K{sup +}K{sup -}, {pi}{sup +}{pi}{sup -}), CP-odd (CP-) eigenstate (K{sub S}{sup 0}{pi}{sup 0}, K{sub S}{sup 0}{phi}, K{sub S}{sup 0}{omega}) or a non-CP state (K{sup -}{pi}{sup +}). We also analyze D meson decays into K{sup +}{pi}{sup -} from a Cabibbo-favored {bar D}{sup 0} decay or doubly suppressed D{sup 0} decay ('ADS' analysis). We measure observables that are sensitive to the CKM angle {gamma}: the partial-rate charge asymmetries A{sub CP{+-}}, the ratios R{sub CP{+-}} of the B-decay branching fractions in CP{+-} and non-CP decay, the ratio R{sub ADS} of the charge-averaged branching fractions, and the charge asymmetry A{sub ADS} of the ADS decays: A{sub CP+} = 0.09 {+-} 0.13 {+-} 0.06, A{sub CP-} = -0.23 {+-} 0.21 {+-} 0.07, R{sub CP+} = 2.17 {+-} 0.35 {+-} 0.09, R{sub CP-} = 1.03 {+-} 0.27 {+-} 0.13, R{sub ADS} = 0.066 {+-} 0.031 {+-} 0.010, and A{sub ADS} = -0.34 {+-} 0.43 {+-} 0.16, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. Combining all the measurements and using a frequentist approach yields the magnitude of the ratio between the Cabibbo-suppressed and favored amplitudes, r{sub B} = 0.31 with a one (two) sigma confidence level interval of [0.24, 0.38] ([0.17, 0.43]). The value r{sub B} = 0 is excluded at the 3.3 sigma level. A similar analysis excludes values of {gamma} in the intervals [0, 7]{sup o}, [55, 111]{sup o}, and [175, 180]{sup o} ([85, 99]{sup o}) at the one (two) sigma confidence level.

  10. Volume-Based Parameters of {sup 18}F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography Improve Disease Recurrence Prediction in Postmastectomy Breast Cancer Patients With 1 to 3 Positive Axillary Lymph Nodes

    SciTech Connect

    Nakajima, Naomi; Kataoka, Masaaki; Sugawara, Yoshifumi; Ochi, Takashi; Kiyoto, Sachiko; Ohsumi, Shozo; Mochizuki, Teruhito

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: To determine whether volume-based parameters on pretreatment {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography in breast cancer patients treated with mastectomy without adjuvant radiation therapy are predictive of recurrence. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed 93 patients with 1 to 3 positive axillary nodes after surgery, who were studied with {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography for initial staging. We evaluated the relationship between positron emission tomography parameters, including the maximum standardized uptake value, metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and clinical outcomes. Results: The median follow-up duration was 45 months. Recurrence was observed in 11 patients. Metabolic tumor volume and TLG were significantly related to tumor size, number of involved nodes, nodal ratio, nuclear grade, estrogen receptor (ER) status, and triple negativity (TN) (all P values were <.05). In receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, MTV and TLG showed better predictive performance than tumor size, ER status, or TN (area under the curve: 0.85, 0.86, 0.79, 0.74, and 0.74, respectively). On multivariate analysis, MTV was an independent prognostic factor of locoregional recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio 34.42, 95% confidence interval 3.94-882.71, P=.0008) and disease-free survival (DFS) (hazard ratio 13.92, 95% confidence interval 2.65-103.78, P=.0018). The 3-year DFS rate was 93.8% for the lower MTV group (<53.1; n=85) and 25.0% for the higher MTV group (?53.1; n=8; P<.0001, logrank test). The 3-year DFS rate for patients with both ER-positive status and MTV <53.1 was 98.2%; and for those with ER-negative status and MTV ?53.1 it was 25.0% (P<.0001). Conclusions: Volume-based parameters improve recurrence prediction in postmastectomy breast cancer patients with 1 to 3 positive nodes. The addition of MTV to ER status or TN has potential

  11. Predictors of Severe Acute and Late Toxicities in Patients With Localized Head-and-Neck Cancer Treated With Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Francois; Fortin, Andre; Wang, Chang Shu; Liu, Geoffrey

    2012-03-15

    Purpose: Radiation therapy (RT) causes acute and late toxicities that affect various organs and functions. In a large cohort of patients treated with RT for localized head and neck cancer (HNC), we prospectively assessed the occurrence of RT-induced acute and late toxicities and identified characteristics that predicted these toxicities. Methods and Materials: We conducted a randomized trial among 540 patients treated with RT for localized HNC to assess whether vitamin E supplementation could improve disease outcomes. Adverse effects of RT were assessed using the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Acute Radiation Morbidity Criteria during RT and one month after RT, and the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Late Radiation Morbidity Scoring Scheme at six and 12 months after RT. The most severe adverse effect among the organs/tissues was selected as an overall measure of either acute or late toxicity. Grade 3 and 4 toxicities were considered as severe. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify all independent predictors (p < 0.05) of acute or late toxicity and to estimate odds ratios (OR) for severe toxicity with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Grade 3 or 4 toxicity was observed in 23% and 4% of patients, respectively, for acute and late toxicity. Four independent predictors of severe acute toxicity were identified: sex (female vs. male: OR = 1.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-2.80), Karnofsky Performance Status (OR = 0.67 for a 10-point increment, 95% CI: 0.52-0.88), body mass index (above 25 vs. below: OR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.22-2.90), TNM stage (Stage II vs. I: OR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.25-2.92). Two independent predictors were found for severe late toxicity: female sex (OR = 3.96, 95% CI: 1.41-11.08) and weight loss during RT (OR = 1.26 for a 1 kg increment, 95% CI: 1.12-1.41). Conclusions: Knowledge of these predictors easily collected in a clinical setting could help

  12. Outcomes for Spine Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy and an Analysis of Predictors of Local Recurrence

    SciTech Connect

    Bishop, Andrew J.; Tao, Randa; Rebueno, Neal C.; Christensen, Eva N.; Allen, Pamela K.; Wang, Xin A.; Amini, Behrang; Tannir, Nizar M.; Tatsui, Claudio E.; Rhines, Laurence D.; Li, Jing; Chang, Eric L.; Brown, Paul D.; Ghia, Amol J.

    2015-08-01

    Purpose: To investigate local control, survival outcomes, and predictors of local relapse for patients treated with spine stereotactic body radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the records of 332 spinal metastases consecutively treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy between 2002 and 2012. The median follow-up for all living patients was 33 months (range, 0-111 months). Endpoints were overall survival and local control (LC); recurrences were classified as either in-field or marginal. Results: The 1-year actuarial LC and overall survival rates were 88% and 64%, respectively. Patients with local relapses had poorer dosimetric coverage of the gross tumor volume (GTV) compared with patients without recurrence (minimum dose [Dmin] biologically equivalent dose [BED] 23.9 vs 35.1 Gy, P<.001; D98 BED 41.8 vs 48.1 Gy, P=.001; D95 BED 47.2 vs 50.5 Gy, P=.004). Furthermore, patients with marginal recurrences had poorer prescription coverage of the GTV (86% vs 93%, P=.01) compared with those with in-field recurrences, potentially because of more upfront spinal canal disease (78% vs 24%, P=.001). Using a Cox regression univariate analysis, patients with a GTV BED Dmin ≥33.4 Gy (median dose) (equivalent to 14 Gy in 1 fraction) had a significantly higher 1-year LC rate (94% vs 80%, P=.001) compared with patients with a lower GTV BED Dmin; this factor was the only significant variable on multivariate Cox analysis associated with LC (P=.001, hazard ratio 0.29, 95% confidence interval 0.14-0.60) and also was the only variable significant in a separate competing risk multivariate model (P=.001, hazard ratio 0.30, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.62). Conclusions: Stereotactic body radiation therapy offers durable control for spinal metastases, but there is a subset of patients that recur locally. Patients with local relapse had significantly poorer tumor coverage, which was likely attributable to treatment planning directives that prioritized the

  13. Simple Method to Estimate Mean Heart Dose From Hodgkin Lymphoma Radiation Therapy According to Simulation X-Rays

    SciTech Connect

    Nimwegen, Frederika A. van; Cutter, David J.; Schaapveld, Michael; Rutten, Annemarieke; Kooijman, Karen; Krol, Augustinus D.G.; Janus, Cécile P.M.; Darby, Sarah C.; Leeuwen, Flora E. van; Aleman, Berthe M.P.

    2015-05-01

    Purpose: To describe a new method to estimate the mean heart dose for Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated several decades ago, using delineation of the heart on radiation therapy simulation X-rays. Mean heart dose is an important predictor for late cardiovascular complications after Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) treatment. For patients treated before the era of computed tomography (CT)-based radiotherapy planning, retrospective estimation of radiation dose to the heart can be labor intensive. Methods and Materials: Patients for whom cardiac radiation doses had previously been estimated by reconstruction of individual treatments on representative CT data sets were selected at random from a case–control study of 5-year Hodgkin lymphoma survivors (n=289). For 42 patients, cardiac contours were outlined on each patient's simulation X-ray by 4 different raters, and the mean heart dose was estimated as the percentage of the cardiac contour within the radiation field multiplied by the prescribed mediastinal dose and divided by a correction factor obtained by comparison with individual CT-based dosimetry. Results: According to the simulation X-ray method, the medians of the mean heart doses obtained from the cardiac contours outlined by the 4 raters were 30 Gy, 30 Gy, 31 Gy, and 31 Gy, respectively, following prescribed mediastinal doses of 25-42 Gy. The absolute-agreement intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.97), indicating excellent agreement. Mean heart dose was 30.4 Gy with the simulation X-ray method, versus 30.2 Gy with the representative CT-based dosimetry, and the between-method absolute-agreement intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.80-0.95), indicating good agreement between the two methods. Conclusion: Estimating mean heart dose from radiation therapy simulation X-rays is reproducible and fast, takes individual anatomy into account, and yields results comparable to the labor

  14. Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Oligometastases to the Lung: A Phase 2 Study

    SciTech Connect

    Nuyttens, Joost J.; Voort van Zyp, Noëlle C.M.G. van der; Verhoef, Cornelis; Maat, A.; Klaveren, Robertus J. van; Holt, Bronno van der; Aerts, Joachim; Hoogeman, Mischa

    2015-02-01

    Purpose: To assess, in a phase 2 study, the efficacy and toxicity of stereotactic body radiation therapy for oligometastases to the lung in inoperable patients. Methods and Materials: Patients with lung metastases were included in this study if (1) the primary tumor was controlled; (2) patients were ineligible for or refused surgery and chemotherapy; and (3) patients had 5 or fewer metastatic lesions in no more than 2 organs. Large peripheral tumors were treated with a dose of 60 Gy (3 fractions), small peripheral tumors with 30 Gy (1 fraction), central tumors received 60 Gy (5 fractions), and mediastinal tumors or tumors close to the esophagus received 56 Gy (7 fractions). Results: Thirty patients with 57 metastatic lung tumors from various primary cancers were analyzed. The median follow-up was 36 months (range, 4-60 months). At 2 years, local control for the 11 central tumors was 100%, for the 23 peripheral tumors treated to 60 Gy it was 91%, and for the 23 tumors treated in a single 30-Gy fraction it was 74% (P=.13). This resulted in an overall local control rate at 1 year of 79%, with a 2-sided 80% confidence interval of 67% to 87%. Because the hypothesized value of 70% lies within the confidence interval, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the true local control rate at 1 year is ≤70%, and therefore we did not achieve the goal of the study: an actuarial local control of the treated lung lesions at 1 year of 90%. The 4-year overall survival rate was 38%. Grade 3 acute toxicity occurred in 5 patients. Three patients complained of chronic grade 3 toxicity, including pain, fatigue, and pneumonitis, and 3 patients had rib fractures. Conclusions: The local control was promising, and the 4-year overall survival rate was 38%. The treatment was well tolerated, even for central lesions.

  15. Statistical Analyses for Probabilistic Assessments of the Reactor Pressure Vessel Structural Integrity: Building a Master Curve on an Extract of the 'Euro' Fracture Toughness Dataset, Controlling Statistical Uncertainty for Both Mono-Temperature and multi-temperature tests

    SciTech Connect

    Josse, Florent; Lefebvre, Yannick; Todeschini, Patrick; Turato, Silvia; Meister, Eric

    2006-07-01

    level and direction into account as well as the test specimen type. As for the second point, the emphasis is placed on the uncertainties in applying the master curve approach. For a toughness dataset based on different specimens of a single product, application of the master curve methodology requires the statistical estimation of one parameter: the reference temperature T{sub 0}. Because of the limited number of specimens, estimation of this temperature is uncertain. The ASTM standard provides a rough evaluation of this statistical uncertainty through an approximate confidence interval. In this paper, a thorough study is carried out to build more meaningful confidence intervals (for both mono-temperature and multi-temperature tests). These results ensure better control over uncertainty, and allow rigorous analysis of the impact of its influencing factors: the number of specimens and the temperatures at which they have been tested. (authors)

  16. Treatment of Five or More Brain Metastases With Stereotactic Radiosurgery

    SciTech Connect

    Hunter, Grant K.; Suh, John H.; Reuther, Alwyn M.; Vogelbaum, Michael A.; Barnett, Gene H.; Angelov, Lilyana; Weil, Robert J.; Neyman, Gennady; Chao, Samuel T.

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: To examine the outcomes of patients with five or more brain metastases treated in a single session with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods and Materials: Sixty-four patients with brain metastases treated with SRS to five or more lesions in a single session were reviewed. Primary disease type, number of lesions, Karnofsky performance score (KPS) at SRS, and status of primary and systemic disease at SRS were included. Patients were treated using dosing as defined by Radiation Therapy Oncology Group Protocol 90-05, with adjustments for critical structures. We defined prior whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) as WBRT completed >1 month before SRS and concurrent WBRT as WBRT completed within 1 month before or after SRS. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazard regression were used to determine which patient and treatment factors predicted overall survival (OS). Results: The median OS after SRS was 7.5 months. The median KPS was 80 (range, 60-100). A KPS of {>=}80 significantly influenced OS (median OS, 4.8 months for KPS {<=}70 vs. 8.8 months for KPS {>=}80, p = 0.0097). The number of lesions treated did not significantly influence OS (median OS, 6.6 months for eight or fewer lesions vs. 9.9 months for more than eight, p = nonsignificant). Primary site histology did not significantly influence median OS. On multivariate Cox modeling, KPS and prior WBRT significantly predicted for OS. Whole-brain radiotherapy before SRS compared with concurrent WBRT significantly influenced survival, with a risk ratio of 0.423 (95% confidence interval 0.191-0.936, p = 0.0338). No significant differences were observed when no WBRT was compared with concurrent WBRT or when the no WBRT group was compared with prior WBRT. A KPS of {<=}70 predicted for poorer outcomes, with a risk ratio of 2.164 (95% confidence interval 1.157-4.049, p = 0.0157). Conclusions: Stereotactic radiosurgery to five or more brain lesions is an effective treatment option for patients with

  17. Temporal Nodal Regression and Regional Control After Primary Radiation Therapy for N2-N3 Head-and-Neck Cancer Stratified by HPV Status

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Shao Hui; O'Sullivan, Brian; Ringash, Jolie; Hope, Andrew; Gilbert, Ralph; Irish, Jonathan; Perez-Ordonez, Bayardo; Weinreb, Ilan; Waldron, John

    2013-12-01

    Purpose: To compare the temporal lymph node (LN) regression and regional control (RC) after primary chemoradiation therapy/radiation therapy in human papillomavirus-related [HPV(+)] versus human papillomavirus-unrelated [HPV(?)] head-and-neck cancer (HNC). Methods and Materials: All cases of N2-N3 HNC treated with radiation therapy/chemoradiation therapy between 2003 and 2009 were reviewed. Human papillomavirus status was ascertained by p16 staining on all available oropharyngeal cancers. Larynx/hypopharynx cancers were considered HPV(?). Initial radiologic complete nodal response (CR) (?1.0 cm 8-12 weeks after treatment), ultimate LN resolution, and RC were compared between HPV(+) and HPV(?) HNC. Multivariate analysis identified outcome predictors. Results: A total of 257 HPV(+) and 236 HPV(?) HNCs were identified. The initial LN size was larger (mean, 2.9 cm vs 2.5 cm; P<.01) with a higher proportion of cystic LNs (38% vs 6%, P<.01) in HPV(+) versus HPV(?) HNC. CR was achieved is 125 HPV(+) HNCs (49%) and 129 HPV(?) HNCs (55%) (P=.18). The mean post treatment largest LN was 36% of the original size in the HPV(+) group and 41% in the HPV(?) group (P<.01). The actuarial LN resolution was similar in the HPV(+) and HPV(?) groups at 12 weeks (42% and 43%, respectively), but it was higher in the HPV(+) group than in the HPV(?) group at 36 weeks (90% vs 77%, P<.01). The median follow-up period was 3.6 years. The 3-year RC rate was higher in the HPV(?) CR cases versus non-CR cases (92% vs 63%, P<.01) but was not different in the HPV(+) CR cases versus non-CR cases (98% vs 92%, P=.14). On multivariate analysis, HPV(+) status predicted ultimate LN resolution (odds ratio, 1.4 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.7]; P<.01) and RC (hazard ratio, 0.3 [95% confidence interval 0.2-0.6]; P<.01). Conclusions: HPV(+) LNs involute more quickly than HPV(?) LNs but undergo a more prolonged process to eventual CR beyond the time of initial assessment at 8 to 12 weeks after treatment. Post

  18. Measurement of the CP-violating phase βsJ/ψΦ in Bs0→J/ψΦ decays with the CDF II detector

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Aaltonen, T.; Álvarez González, B.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J. A.; Arisawa, T.; et al

    2012-04-23

    We present a measurement of the CP-violating parameter βsJ/ψΦ using approximately 6500 B0s→J/ψΦ decays reconstructed with the CDF II detector in a sample of pp̄ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV corresponding to 5.2 fb⁻¹ integrated luminosity produced by the Tevatron collider at Fermilab. We find the CP-violating phase to be within the range βsJ/ψΦϵ [0.02,0.52]∪[1.08,1.55] at 68% confidence level where the coverage property of the quoted interval is guaranteed using a frequentist statistical analysis. This result is in agreement with the standard model expectation at the level of about one Gaussian standard deviation. We consider the inclusion of a potential S-wavemore » contribution to the B0s→J/ψK⁺K⁻ final state which is found to be negligible over the mass interval 1.009sJ/ψΦ, we find the B0s decay width difference to be ΔΓs=0.075±0.035(stat)±0.006(syst) ps⁻¹. We also present the most precise measurements of the B0s mean lifetime τ(B0s)=1.529±0.025(stat)±0.012(syst) ps, the polarization fractions |A0(0)|²=0.524±0.013(stat)±0.015(syst) and |A II (0)|²=0.231±0.014(stat)±0.015(syst), as well as the strong phase δ⊥=2.95±0.64(stat)±0.07(syst) rad. In addition, we report an alternative Bayesian analysis that gives results consistent with the frequentist approach.« less

  19. Juvenile myoclonic epilepsy in chromosome 6p12-p11: Locus heterogeneity and recombinations

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, A.W.; Delgado-Escueta, A.V.; Serratosa, J.M.

    1996-06-14

    We recently analyzed under homogeneity a large pedigree from Belize with classic juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME). After a genome-wide search with 146 microsatellites, we obtained significant linkage between chromosome 6p markers, D6S257 and D6S272, and both convulsive and EEG traits of JME. Recombinations in two affected members defined a 40 cM JME region flanked by D6S313 and D6S258. In the present communication, we explored if the same chromosome 6p11 microsatellites also have a role in JME mixed with pyknoleptic absences. We allowed for heterogeneity during linkage analyses. We tested for heterogeneity by the admixture test and looked for more recombinations. D6S272, D6S466, D6S294, and D6S257 were significantly linked (Z{sub max} > 3.5) to the clinical and EEG traits of 22 families, assuming autosomal dominant inheritance with 70% penetrance. Pairwise Z{sub max} were 4.230 for D6S294 ({theta}{sub m=f} at 0.133) and 4.442 for D6S466 ({theta}{sub m=f} at 0.111). Admixture test (H{sub 2} vs. H{sub 1}) was significant (P = 0.0234 for D6S294 and 0.0128 for D6S272) supporting the hypotheses of linkage with heterogeneity. Estimated proportion of linked families, {alpha}, was 0.50 (95% confidence interval 0.05-0.99) for D6S294 and D6S272. Multipoint analyses and recombinations in three new families narrowed the JME locus to a 7 cM interval flanked by D6S272 and D6S257. 44 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

  20. PASSBY(with FitToDB)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2002-08-28

    The PASSBY program is used to operate the Sensor for Measurement and analysis of radiation transients (SMART). The unit records triggers an "Event" upon detecting an increase in count rate recorded with a sodium iodide gamma-ray spectrometer. Background radiation levels are monitored continuously and background spectra are updated at 60 second intervals if no radiation sources are present other than those in the natural background. the system accepts input from an optional neutron counter. Inmore » addition to spectral information, the location, determined with an internal GPS and the compass bearing are reported via either an RF modem or a serial cable. The gamma-ray spectra are analyzed to determine which isotopes are present and confidence levels are assigned. The analysis is performed using the FitToDB algorithm, is described as follows. The automatic identification algorithm FitToDB algorithm enables the automatic identification of gamma-ry emitting isotopes in shielded sources. FitToDB can identify combinations of up to ten isotopes, each of which may be viewed through different shielding materials. The algorithm runs rapidly (within about 3 seconds on a 100 MHz Pentium-class processor), and can be compiled to run both DOS and Windows operating systems. Computational speed and system interoperability issues are addressed by the approach of interpolating spectra from an existing database of computed templates rather than performing detector response functions calculations within the algorithm.« less

  1. Criticality calculations with MCNP{sup TM}: A primer

    SciTech Connect

    Mendius, P.W.; Harmon, C.D. II; Busch, R.D.; Briesmeister, J.F.; Forster, R.A.

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this Primer is to assist the nuclear criticality safety analyst to perform computer calculations using the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Because of the closure of many experimental facilities, reliance on computer simulation is increasing. Often the analyst has little experience with specific codes available at his/her facility. This Primer helps the analyst understand and use the MCNP Monte Carlo code for nuclear criticality analyses. It assumes no knowledge of or particular experience with Monte Carlo codes in general or with MCNP in particular. The document begins with a Quickstart chapter that introduces the basic concepts of using MCNP. The following chapters expand on those ideas, presenting a range of problems from simple cylinders to 3-dimensional lattices for calculating keff confidence intervals. Input files and results for all problems are included. The Primer can be used alone, but its best use is in conjunction with the MCNP4A manual. After completing the Primer, a criticality analyst should be capable of performing and understanding a majority of the calculations that will arise in the field of nuclear criticality safety.

  2. Assessment of G3(MP2)//B3 theory including a pseudopotential for molecules containing first-, second-, and third-row representative elements

    SciTech Connect

    Rocha, Carlos Murilo Romero; Morgon, Nelson Henrique; Custodio, Rogrio; Pereira, Douglas Henrique; Departamento de Cincias Exatas e Biotecnolgicas, Universidade Federal do Tocantins, Campus de Gurupi, 77410-530 Gurupi, Tocantins

    2013-11-14

    G3(MP2)//B3 theory was modified to incorporate compact effective potential (CEP) pseudopotentials, providing a theoretical alternative referred to as G3(MP2)//B3-CEP for calculations involving first-, second-, and third-row representative elements. The G3/05 test set was used as a standard to evaluate the accuracy of the calculated properties. G3(MP2)//B3-CEP theory was applied to the study of 247 standard enthalpies of formation, 104 ionization energies, 63 electron affinities, 10 proton affinities, and 22 atomization energies, comprising 446 experimental energies. The mean absolute deviations compared with the experimental data for all thermochemical results presented an accuracy of 1.4 kcal mol{sup ?1} for G3(MP2)//B3 and 1.6 kcal mol{sup ?1} for G3(MP2)//B3-CEP. Approximately 75% and 70% of the calculated properties are found with accuracy between 2 kcal mol{sup ?1} for G3(MP2)//B3 and G3(MP2)//B3-CEP, respectively. Considering a confidence interval of 95%, the results may oscillate between 4.2 kcal mol{sup ?1} and 4.6 kcal mol{sup ?1}, respectively. The overall statistical behavior indicates that the calculations using pseudopotential present similar behavior with the all-electron theory. Of equal importance to the accuracy is the CPU time, which was reduced by between 10% and 40%.

  3. Hyperfractionated Accelerated Radiotherapy (HART) for Anaplastic Thyroid Carcinoma: Toxicity and Survival Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Dandekar, Prasad; Rhys-Evans, Peter; Harrington, Kevin; Nutting, Christopher; Newbold, Kate

    2009-06-01

    Purpose: Anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (ATC) is one of the most aggressive cancers, and the current protocol of hyperfractionated accelerated radiotherapy was initiated to improve survival while limiting toxicities. Methods and Materials: All patients with ATC from 1991 to 2002 were accrued and received megavoltage radiotherapy from the mastoid processes to the carina up to 60 Gy in twice-daily fractions of 1.8 and 2 Gy, 6 hours apart. Results: Thirty-one patients were accrued with a median age of 69 years, and 55% were women. Debulking was performed in 26%, and total thyroidectomy, in 6%, whereas 68% received radical radiotherapy alone. Local control data were available for 27 patients: 22% had a complete response, 26% had a partial response, 15% showed progressive disease, and 37% showed static disease. Median overall survival for all 31 patients was 70 days (95% confidence interval, 40-99). There was no significant difference in median survival between patients younger (70 days) and older than 70 years (42 days), between men (70 days) and women (49days), and between patients receiving postoperative radiotherapy (77 days) and radical radiotherapy alone (35 days). Grade III or higher skin erythema was seen in 56% patients; desquamation in 21%; dysphagia in 74%; and esophagitis in 79%. Conclusion: The current protocol failed to offer a significant survival benefit, was associated with severe toxicities, and thus was discontinued. There is a suggestion that younger patients with operable disease have longer survival, but this would require a larger study to confirm it.

  4. Dipole-dipole resistivity monitoring at the Cerro Prieto geothermal field

    SciTech Connect

    Wilt, M.J.; Goldstein, N.E.

    1983-03-01

    Two 20 km-long dipole-dipole lines with permanently emplaced electronics at 1-km spacings were established over the field area; one of these lines is remeasured annually. Resistivity measurements are taken using a 25 kW generator capable of up to 80A output and a microprocessor-controlled signal-averaging receiver; this high power-low noise system is capable of highly accurate measurements even at large transmitter-receiver separations. Standard error calculations for collected data indicate errors less than 5% for all points, but 95% confidence intervals show error limits about 2 to 4 times higher. Data indicate little change of apparent resistivity within the upper 300 m over the field. However, apparent resistivity increases are observed over the producing zone at depths of 1 km and greater. Large zones of decreasing apparent resistivity are observed flanking the zone of increases on both sides. To explain the resistivity changes observed, simple two-dimensional reservoir simulations were performed in which cooler, less saline recharge water enters the reservoir from above through a leaky caprock and laterally through a more permeable vertical boundary. The calculated magnitude of a resistivity change after 3 years of simulated production fits the observed data, but the anomaly shapes differ. It is concluded that the rapidly moving hydraulic front produces a salinity change large enough to explain the resistivity increase, but that our recharge assumptions were probably oversimplified.

  5. Prevalence and Treatment Management of Oropharyngeal Candidiasis in Cancer Patients: Results of the French Candidoscope Study

    SciTech Connect

    Gligorov, Joseph; Bastit, Laurent; Gervais, Honorine; Henni, Mehdi; Kahila, Widad; Lepille, Daniel; Luporsi, Elisabeth; Sasso, Giuseppe; Varette, Charles; Azria, David

    2011-06-01

    Purpose: The aim of this pharmaco-epidemiological study was to evaluate the prevalence of oropharyngeal candidiasis (OPC) in cancer patients treated with chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: Signs and symptoms of OPC were noted for all patients. Antifungal therapeutic management was recorded in OPC patients. Patients receiving local antifungal treatments were monitored until the end of treatment. Results: Enrolled in the study were 2,042 patients with solid tumor and/or lymphoma treated with chemotherapy and/or another systemic cancer treatment and/or radiotherapy. The overall prevalence of OPC was 9.6% (95% confidence interval, 8.4%-11.0%]in this population. It was most frequent in patients treated with combined chemoradiotherapy (22.0%) or with more than two cytotoxic agents (16.9%). Local antifungal treatments were prescribed in 75.0% of OPC patients as recommended by guidelines. The compliance to treatment was higher in patients receiving once-daily miconazole mucoadhesive buccal tablet (MBT; 88.2%) than in those treated with several daily mouthwashes of amphotericin B (40%) or nystatin (18.8%). Conclusion: OPC prevalence in treated cancer patients was high. Local treatments were usually prescribed as per guidelines. Compliance to local treatments was better with once-daily drugs.

  6. Search for the decay modes D⁰→e⁺e⁻, D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻, and D⁰→e±μ∓

    SciTech Connect

    Lees, J. P.; Poireau, V.; Tisserand, V.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Palano, A.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; Brown, D. N.; Kerth, L. T.; Kolomensky, Yu. G.; Lynch, G.; Koch, H.; Schroeder, T.; Asgeirsson, D. J.; Hearty, C.; Mattison, T. S.; McKenna, J. A.; So, R. Y.; Khan, A.; Blinov, V. E.; Buzykaev, A. R.; Druzhinin, V. P.; Golubev, V. B.; Kravchenko, E. A.; Onuchin, A. P.; Serednyakov, S. I.; Skovpen, Yu. I.; Solodov, E. P.; Todyshev, K. Yu.; Yushkov, A. N.; Bondioli, M.; Kirkby, D.; Lankford, A. J.; Mandelkern, M.; Atmacan, H.; Gary, J. W.; Liu, F.; Long, O.; Mullin, E.; Vitug, G. M.; Campagnari, C.; Hong, T. M.; Kovalskyi, D.; Richman, J. D.; West, C. A.; Eisner, A. M.; Kroseberg, J.; Lockman, W. S.; Martinez, A. J.; Schumm, B. A.; Seiden, A.; Chao, D. S.; Cheng, C. H.; Echenard, B.; Flood, K. T.; Hitlin, D. G.; Ongmongkolkul, P.; Porter, F. C.; Rakitin, A. Y.; Andreassen, R.; Huard, Z.; Meadows, B. T.; Sokoloff, M. D.; Sun, L.; Bloom, P. C.; Ford, W. T.; Gaz, A.; Nauenberg, U.; Smith, J. G.; Wagner, S. R.; Ayad, R.; Toki, W. H.; Spaan, B.; Schubert, K. R.; Schwierz, R.; Bernard, D.; Verderi, M.; Clark, P. J.; Playfer, S.; Bettoni, D.; Bozzi, C.; Calabrese, R.; Cibinetto, G.; Fioravanti, E.; Garzia, I.; Luppi, E.; Munerato, M.; Piemontese, L.; Santoro, V.; Baldini-Ferroli, R.; Calcaterra, A.; de Sangro, R.; Finocchiaro, G.; Patteri, P.; Peruzzi, I. M.; Piccolo, M.; Rama, M.; Zallo, A.; Contri, R.; Guido, E.; Lo Vetere, M.; Monge, M. R.; Passaggio, S.; Patrignani, C.; Robutti, E.; Bhuyan, B.; Prasad, V.; Lee, C. L.; Morii, M.; Edwards, A. J.; Adametz, A.; Uwer, U.; Lacker, H. M.; Lueck, T.; Dauncey, P. D.; Mallik, U.; Chen, C.; Cochran, J.; Meyer, W. T.; Prell, S.; Rubin, A. E.; Gritsan, A. V.; Guo, Z. J.; Arnaud, N.; Davier, M.; Derkach, D.; Grosdidier, G.; Le Diberder, F.; Lutz, A. M.; Malaescu, B.; Roudeau, P.; Schune, M. H.; Stocchi, A.; Wormser, G.; Lange, D. J.; Wright, D. M.; Chavez, C. A.; Coleman, J. P.; Fry, J. R.; Gabathuler, E.; Hutchcroft, D. E.; Payne, D. J.; Touramanis, C.; Bevan, A. J.; Di Lodovico, F.; Sacco, R.; Sigamani, M.; Cowan, G.; Brown, D. N.; Davis, C. L.; Denig, A. G.; Fritsch, M.; Gradl, W.; Griessinger, K.; Hafner, A.; Prencipe, E.; Barlow, R. J.; Jackson, G.; Lafferty, G. D.; Behn, E.; Cenci, R.; Hamilton, B.; Jawahery, A.; Roberts, D. A.; Dallapiccola, C.; Cowan, R.; Dujmic, D.; Sciolla, G.; Cheaib, R.; Lindemann, D.; Patel, P. M.; Robertson, S. H.; Biassoni, P.; Neri, N.; Palombo, F.; Stracka, S.; Cremaldi, L.; Godang, R.; Kroeger, R.; Sonnek, P.; Summers, D. J.; Nguyen, X.; Simard, M.; Taras, P.; De Nardo, G.; Monorchio, D.; Onorato, G.; Sciacca, C.; Martinelli, M.; Raven, G.; Jessop, C. P.; LoSecco, J. M.; Wang, W. F.; Honscheid, K.; Kass, R.; Brau, J.; Frey, R.; Sinev, N. B.; Strom, D.; Torrence, E.; Feltresi, E.; Gagliardi, N.; Margoni, M.; Morandin, M.; Posocco, M.; Rotondo, M.; Simi, G.; Simonetto, F.; Stroili, R.; Akar, S.; Ben-Haim, E.; Bomben, M.; Bonneaud, G. R.; Briand, H.; Calderini, G.; Chauveau, J.; Hamon, O.; Leruste, Ph.; Marchiori, G.; Ocariz, J.; Sitt, S.; Biasini, M.; Manoni, E.; Pacetti, S.; Rossi, A.; Angelini, C.; Batignani, G.; Bettarini, S.; Carpinelli, M.; Casarosa, G.; Cervelli, A.; Forti, F.; Giorgi, M. A.; Lusiani, A.; Oberhof, B.; Paoloni, E.; Perez, A.; Rizzo, G.; Walsh, J. J.; Lopes Pegna, D.; Olsen, J.; Smith, A. J. S.; Telnov, A. V.; Anulli, F.; Faccini, R.; Ferrarotto, F.; Ferroni, F.; Gaspero, M.; Li Gioi, L.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Piredda, G.; Bünger, C.; Grünberg, O.; Hartmann, T.; Leddig, T.; Schröder, H.; Voss, C.; Waldi, R.; Adye, T.; Olaiya, E. O.; Wilson, F. F.; Emery, S.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Vasseur, G.; Yèche, Ch.; Aston, D.; Bard, D. J.; Bartoldus, R.; Benitez, J. F.; Cartaro, C.; Convery, M. R.; Dorfan, J.; Dubois-Felsmann, G. P.; Dunwoodie, W.; Ebert, M.; Field, R. C.; Franco Sevilla, M.; Fulsom, B. G.; Gabareen, A. M.; Graham, M. T.; Grenier, P.; Hast, C.; Innes, W. R.; Kelsey, M. H.; Kim, P.; Kocian, M. L.; Leith, D. W. G. S.; Lewis, P.; Lindquist, B.; Luitz, S.; Luth, V.; Lynch, H. L.; MacFarlane, D. B.; Muller, D. R.; Neal, H.; Nelson, S.; Perl, M.; Pulliam, T.; Ratcliff, B. N.; Roodman, A.; Salnikov, A. A.; Schindler, R. H.; Snyder, A.; Su, D.; Sullivan, M. K.; Va’vra, J.; Wagner, A. P.; Wisniewski, W. J.; Wittgen, M.; Wright, D. H.; Wulsin, H. W.; Young, C. C.; Ziegler, V.; Park, W.; Purohit, M. V.; White, R. M.; Wilson, J. R.; Randle-Conde, A.; Sekula, S. J.; Bellis, M.; Burchat, P. R.; Miyashita, T. S.; Puccio, E. M. T.; Alam, M. S.; Ernst, J. A.; Gorodeisky, R.; Guttman, N.; Peimer, D. R.; Soffer, A.; Lund, P.; Spanier, S. M.; Ritchie, J. L.; Ruland, A. M.; Schwitters, R. F.; Wray, B. C.; Izen, J. M.; Lou, X. C.; Bianchi, F.; Gamba, D.; Zambito, S.; Lanceri, L.; Vitale, L.; Martinez-Vidal, F.; Oyanguren, A.; Ahmed, H.; Albert, J.; Banerjee, Sw.; Bernlochner, F. U.; Choi, H. H. F.; King, G. J.; Kowalewski, R.; Lewczuk, M. J.; Nugent, I. M.; Roney, J. M.; Sobie, R. J.; Tasneem, N.; Gershon, T. J.; Harrison, P. F.; Latham, T. E.; Band, H. R.; Dasu, S.; Pan, Y.; Prepost, R.; Wu, S. L.

    2012-08-01

    We present searches for the rare decay modes D⁰→e⁺e⁻, D0→μ⁺μ⁻, and D⁰→e±μ in continuum e⁺e⁻→cc¯ events recorded by the BABAR detector in a data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 468 fb⁻¹. These decays are highly Glashow–Iliopoulos–Maiani suppressed but may be enhanced in several extensions of the standard model. Our observed event yields are consistent with the expected backgrounds. An excess is seen in the D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻ channel, although the observed yield is consistent with an upward background fluctuation at the 5% level. Using the Feldman–Cousins method, we set the following 90% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions: B(D⁰→e⁺e⁻)<1.7×10⁻⁷, B(D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻) within [0.6,8.1]×10⁻⁷, and B(D⁰→e±μ)<3.3×10⁻⁷.

  7. Search for the decay modes D⁰→e⁺e⁻, D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻, and D⁰→e±μ∓

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Lees, J. P.; Poireau, V.; Tisserand, V.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Palano, A.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; Brown, D. N.; Kerth, L. T.; et al

    2012-08-01

    We present searches for the rare decay modes D⁰→e⁺e⁻, D0→μ⁺μ⁻, and D⁰→e±μ∓ in continuum e⁺e⁻→cc¯ events recorded by the BABAR detector in a data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 468 fb⁻¹. These decays are highly Glashow–Iliopoulos–Maiani suppressed but may be enhanced in several extensions of the standard model. Our observed event yields are consistent with the expected backgrounds. An excess is seen in the D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻ channel, although the observed yield is consistent with an upward background fluctuation at the 5% level. Using the Feldman–Cousins method, we set the following 90% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions:more » B(D⁰→e⁺e⁻)<1.7×10⁻⁷, B(D⁰→μ⁺μ⁻) within [0.6,8.1]×10⁻⁷, and B(D⁰→e±μ∓)<3.3×10⁻⁷.« less

  8. Search for Stopped Gluinos in pp collisions at sqrt s = 7 TeV

    SciTech Connect

    Khachatryan, Vardan; et al.

    2011-01-01

    The results of the first search for long-lived gluinos produced in 7 TeV pp collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider are presented. The search looks for evidence of long-lived particles that stop in the CMS detector and decay in the quiescent periods between beam crossings. In a dataset with a peak instantaneous luminosity of 10^{32} cm^{-2} s^{-1}, an integrated luminosity of 10 inverse picobarns, and a search interval corresponding to 62 hours of LHC operation, no significant excess above background was observed. Limits at the 95% confidence level on gluino pair production over 13 orders of magnitude of gluino lifetime are set. For a mass difference between the gluino and the neutralino greater than 100 GeV/c^2, and assuming a branching ratio for gluino to gluon+neutralino of 100%, gluinos of mass less than 370 GeV/c^2 are excluded for lifetimes from 10 microseconds to 1000 s.

  9. Receipt of Guideline-Concordant Treatment in Elderly Prostate Cancer Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Ronald C., E-mail: Ronald_chen@med.unc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Carpenter, William R. [Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Hendrix, Laura H. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Bainbridge, John [Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Wang, Andrew Z. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Nielsen, Matthew E. [Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Lineberger Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); Department of Urology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina (United States); and others

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: To examine the proportion of elderly prostate cancer patients receiving guideline-concordant treatment, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked database. Methods and Materials: A total of 29,001 men diagnosed in 2004-2007 with localized prostate cancer, aged 66 to 79 years, were included. We characterized the proportion of men who received treatment concordant with the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, stratified by risk group and age. Logistic regression was used to examine covariates associated with receipt of guideline-concordant management. Results: Guideline concordance was 79%-89% for patients with low- or intermediate-risk disease. Among high-risk patients, 66.6% of those aged 66-69 years received guideline-concordant management, compared with 51.9% of those aged 75-79 years. Discordance was mainly due to conservative managementno treatment or hormone therapy alone. Among the subgroup of patients aged ?76 years with no measured comorbidity, findings were similar. On multivariable analysis, older age (75-79 vs 66-69 years, odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.50-0.57) was associated with a lower likelihood of guideline concordance for high-risk prostate cancer, but comorbidity was not. Conclusions: There is undertreatment of elderly but healthy patients with high-risk prostate cancer, the most aggressive form of this disease.

  10. Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Coleman, Phil R

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, and a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.

  11. Observational tests of non-adiabatic Chaplygin gas

    SciTech Connect

    Carneiro, S.; Pigozzo, C. E-mail: cpigozzo@ufba.br

    2014-10-01

    In a previous paper [1] it was shown that any dark sector model can be mapped into a non-adiabatic fluid formed by two interacting components, one with zero pressure and the other with equation-of-state parameter ?=-1. It was also shown that the latter does not cluster and, hence, the former is identified as the observed clustering matter. This guarantees that the dark matter power spectrum does not suffer from oscillations or instabilities. It applies in particular to the generalised Chaplygin gas, which was shown to be equivalent to interacting models at both background and perturbation levels. In the present paper we test the non-adiabatic Chaplygin gas against the Hubble diagram of type Ia supernovae, the position of the first acoustic peak in the anisotropy spectrum of the cosmic microwave background and the linear power spectrum of large scale structures. We consider two different compilations of SNe Ia, namely the Constitution and SDSS samples, both calibrated with the MLCS2k2 fitter, and for the power spectrum we use the 2dFGRS catalogue. The model parameters to be adjusted are the present Hubble parameter, the present matter density and the Chaplygin gas parameter ?. The joint analysis best fit gives ??-0.5, which corresponds to a constant-rate energy flux from dark energy to dark matter, with the dark energy density decaying linearly with the Hubble parameter. The ?CDM model, equivalent to ?=0, stands outside the 3? confidence interval.

  12. Probability of pipe fracture in the primary coolant loop of a PWR Plant. Volume 7. System failure probability analysis. Load Combination Program Project I final report

    SciTech Connect

    George, L.; Mensing, R.

    1981-06-01

    This volume describes the computational methodology used to estimate the probability of a simultaneous occurrence of an earthquake and a primary coolant loop pipe fracture caused directly by an earthquake for a pressurized water reactor. Point estimates of this probability, based on a simulation experiment, and the probabilities of related events are included. Simulation is used to estimate weld fracture probabilities conditional on a crack initially existing and an earthquake of specified intensity occurring at a specified time in the life of the plant. These estimates are combined with probabilities associated with the occurrence of an earthquake and the existence of a crack to obtain an estimate of the probability of simultaneous earthquake and pipe fracture for the entire primary coolant loop piping system. A point estimate of probability, as outlined in this volume, does not fully take into consideration all of the uncertainties associated with an analysis of this type. Uncertainty analysis, confidence interval estimates, and sensitivity measures better reflect potential uncertainties. These topics are discussed. Finally, a discussion of the use of a risk-based, rather than a probability-based, decision criterion for deciding whether to decouple is included. 13 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  13. INCORPORATION OF MONO SODIUM TITANATE AND CRYSTALLINE SILICOTITANATE FEEDS IN HIGH LEVEL NUCLEAR WASTE GLASS

    SciTech Connect

    Fox, K.; Johnson, F.; Edwards, T.

    2010-11-23

    Four series of glass compositions were selected, fabricated, and characterized as part of a study to determine the impacts of the addition of Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) and Monosodium Titanate (MST) from the Small Column Ion Exchange (SCIX) process on the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) glass waste form and the applicability of the DWPF process control models. All of the glasses studied were considerably more durable than the benchmark Environmental Assessment (EA) glass. The measured Product Consistency Test (PCT) responses were compared with the predicted values from the current DWPF durability model. One of the KT01-series and two of the KT03-series glasses had measured PCT responses that were outside the lower bound of the durability model. All of the KT04 glasses had durabilities that were predictable regardless of heat treatment or compositional view. In general, the measured viscosity values of the KT01, KT03, and KT04-series glasses are well predicted by the current DWPF viscosity model. The results of liquidus temperature (T{sub L}) measurements for the KT01-series glasses were mixed with regard to the predictability of the T{sub L} for each glass. All of the measured T{sub L} values were higher than the model predicted values, although most fell within the 95% confidence intervals. Overall, the results of this study show a reasonable ability to incorporate the anticipated SCIX streams into DWPF-type glass compositions with TiO{sub 2} concentrations of 4-5 wt % in glass.

  14. An evaluation of genetic heterogeneity in 145 breast-ovarian cancer families

    SciTech Connect

    Narod, S.A.; Ford, D.; Devilee, P.; Barkardottir, R.B.; Lynch, H.T.; Smith, S.A.; Ponder, B.A.J.; Weber, B.L.; Garber, J.E.; Birch, J.M.

    1995-01-01

    The breast-ovary cancer-family syndrome is a dominant predisposition to cancer of the breast and ovaries which has been mapped to chromosome region 17q12-q21. The majority, but not all, of breast-ovary cancer families show linkage to this susceptibility locus, designated BRCA1. We report the results of a linkage analysis of 145 families with both breast and ovarian cancer. These families contain either a total of three or more cases of early-onset (before age 60 years) breast cancer or ovarian cancer. All families contained at least one case of ovarian cancer. Overall, an estimated 76% of the 145 families are linked to the BRCA1 locus. None of the 13 families with cases of male breast cancer appear to be linked, but it is estimated that 92% (95% confidence interval 76%-100%) of families with no male breast cancer and with two or more ovarian cancers are linked to BRCA1. These data suggest that the breast-ovarian cancer-family syndrome is genetically heterogeneous. However, the large majority of families with early-onset breast cancer and with two or more cases of ovarian cancer are likely to be due to BRCA1 mutations. 39 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  15. Estimates of the gene frequency of BRCA1 and its contribution to breast and ovarian cancer incidence

    SciTech Connect

    Ford, D.; Easton, D.F.; Peto, J.

    1995-12-01

    The majority of multiple-case families that segregate both breast and ovarian cancer in a dominant fashion are due to mutations in the BRCA1 gene on chromosome 17q. In this paper, we have combined penetrance estimates for BRCA1 with the results of two population-based genetic epidemiological studies to estimate the gene frequency of BRCA1. On the assumption that the excess risk of ovarian cancer in first degree relatives of breast cancer patients and the breast cancer excess in relatives of ovarian cancer patients are both entirely accounted for by BRCA1, we estimate that the BRCA1 gene frequency is 0.0006 (95% confidence interval [0.0002-0.001]) and that the proportion of breast cancer cases in the general population due to BRCA1 is 5.3% below age 40 years, 2.2% between ages 40 and 49 years, and 1.1% between ages 50 and 70 years. The corresponding estimates for ovarian cancer are 5.7%, 4.6%, and 2.1%, respectively. Our results suggest that the majority of breast cancer families with less than four cases and no ovarian cancer are not due to rare highly penetrant genes such as BRCA1 but are more likely to be due either to chance or to more common genes of lower penetrance. 22 refs., 3 tabs.

  16. Analysis of In-Use Fuel Economy Shortfall Based on Voluntarily Reported MPG Estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Goeltz, Rick; Hopson, Dr Janet L; Tworek, Elzbieta

    2007-01-01

    The usefulness of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) passenger car and light truck fuel economy estimates has been the subject of debate for the past three decades. For the labels on new vehicles and the fuel economy information given to the public, the EPA adjusts dynamometer test results downward by 10% for the city cycle and 22% for the highway cycle to better reflect real world driving conditions. These adjustment factors were developed in 1984 and their continued validity has repeatedly been questioned. In March of 2005 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and EPA's fuel economy information website, www.fueleconomy.gov, began allowing users to voluntarily share fuel economy estimates. This paper presents an initial statistical analysis of more than 3,000 estimates submitted by website users. The analysis suggests two potentially important results: (1) adjusted, combined EPA fuel economy estimates appear to be approximately unbiased estimators of the average fuel economy consumers will experience in actual driving, and (2) the EPA estimates are highly imprecise predictors of any given individual's in-use fuel economy, an approximate 95% confidence interval being +/-7 MPG. These results imply that what is needed is not less biased adjustment factors for the EPA estimates but rather more precise methods of predicting the fuel economy individual consumers will achieve in their own driving.

  17. Measurement of the $W^+W^-$ cross section in pp collisions at $$\\sqrt{s}$$ = 8 TeV and limits on anomalous gauge couplings

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Khachatryan, Vardan

    2016-07-15

    A measurement of the W boson pair production cross section in proton-proton collisions at √ s = 8 TeV is presented. The data we collected with the CMS detector at the LHC correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.4 fb-1 . The W+W- candidates are selected from events with two charged leptons, electrons or muons, and large missing transverse energy. The measured W+W- cross section is 60.1 ± 0.9 (stat) ± 3.2 (exp) ± 3.1 (theo) ± 1.6 (lumi) pb = 60.1 ± 4.8 pb, consistent with the standard model prediction. The W+W-cross sections are also measured in two differentmore » fiducial phase space regions. In addition, the normalized differential cross section is measured as a function of kinematic variables of the final-state charged leptons and compared with several perturbative QCD predictions. Limits on anomalous gauge couplings associated with dimension-six operators are also given in the framework of an effective field theory. Finally, the corresponding 95% confidence level intervals are -5.7 < cWWW/Λ2 < 5.9 TeV-2, -11.4 < cW/Λ2 < 5.4 TeV-2 , -29.2 < cB/Λ2 < 23.9 TeV-2, in the HISZ basis.« less

  18. Methylene chloride exposure and birthweight in Monroe County, New York

    SciTech Connect

    Bell, B.P.; Franks, P.; Hildreth, N.; Melius, J. )

    1991-06-01

    This study examined the relationship between birthweight and exposure to emissions of methylene chloride (DCM) from manufacturing processes of the Eastman Kodak Company at Kodak Park in Rochester, Monroe County, New York. County census tracts were categorized as exposed to high, moderate, low or no DCM based on the Kodak Air Monitoring Program (KAMP) model, a theoretical dispersion model of DCM developed by Eastman Kodak Company. Birthweight and information on variables known to influence birthweight were obtained from 91,302 birth certificates of white singleton births to Monroe County residents from 1976 to 1987. No significant adverse effects of exposure to DCM on birthweight were found. Adjusted birthweight in high exposure census tracts was 18.7 g less than in areas with no exposure (95% confidence interval for the difference between high and no exposure - 51.6, 14.2 g). Problems inherent in the method of estimation of exposure, which may decrease power or bias the results, are discussed. Better methods to estimate exposure to emissions from multiple industrial point sources are needed.

  19. Tank 241-BY-101, cores 189 and 199 analytical results for the final report

    SciTech Connect

    Nuzum, J.L.

    1997-09-25

    This document is the final laboratory report for Tank 241-BY-101. Push mode core segments were removed from Pisers 10B and 10D between May 27, 1997, and June 1, 1997. Segments were received and extruded at 222-S Laboratory. Analyses were performed in accordance with Tank 241-.BY-101 Push Core Sampling and analysis Plan (TSAP) and Tank Safety Screening Data Quality Objective (DQO). None of the subsamples submitted for total alpha activity (AT) or differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis exceeded the notification limits as stated in TSAP and DQO, The statistical results of the 95% confidence interval on the mean calculations are provided by the Tank Waste Remediation Systems (TWRS) Technical Basis Group, and are not considered in this report. Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIR) analysis was requested in order to compare NIR results with those obtained from percent water gravimetry analysis (%H20) and thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA). The TWRS Technical Basis Group rescinded the request for this analysis, and neither NIR nor %H20 analyses were performed.

  20. Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbert, R.O.

    1987-01-01

    The application of statistics to environmental pollution monitoring studies requires a knowledge of statistical analysis methods particularly well suited to pollution data. This book fills that need by providing sampling plans, statistical tests, parameter estimation procedure techniques, and references to pertinent publications. Most of the statistical techniques are relatively simple, and examples, exercises, and case studies are provided to illustrate procedures. The book is logically divided into three parts. Chapters 1, 2, and 3 are introductory chapters. Chapters 4 through 10 discuss field sampling designs and Chapters 11 through 18 deal with a broad range of statistical analysis procedures. Some statistical techniques given here are not commonly seen in statistics book. For example, see methods for handling correlated data (Sections 4.5 and 11.12), for detecting hot spots (Chapter 10), and for estimating a confidence interval for the mean of a lognormal distribution (Section 13.2). Also, Appendix B lists a computer code that estimates and tests for trends over time at one or more monitoring stations using nonparametric methods (Chapters 16 and 17). Unfortunately, some important topics could not be included because of their complexity and the need to limit the length of the book. For example, only brief mention could be made of time series analysis using Box-Jenkins methods and of kriging techniques for estimating spatial and spatial-time patterns of pollution, although multiple references on these topics are provided. Also, no discussion of methods for assessing risks from environmental pollution could be included.

  1. A Direct Top-Quark Width Measurement from Lepton + Jets Events at CDF II

    SciTech Connect

    Aaltonen, T.; Alvarez Gonzalez, B.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J.A.; Apresyan, A.; Arisawa, T.; /Waseda U. /Dubna, JINR

    2010-08-01

    We present a measurement of the top-quark width using t{bar t} events produced in p{bar p} collisions at Fermilab's Tevatron collider and collected by the CDF II detector. In the mode where the top quark decays to a W boson and a bottom quark, we select events in which one W decays leptonically and the other hadronically (lepton + jets channel) . From a data sample corresponding to 4.3 fb{sup -1} of integrated luminosity, we identify 756 candidate events. The top-quark mass and the mass of W boson that decays hadronically are reconstructed for each event and compared with templates of different top-quark widths ({Lambda}{sub t}) and deviations from nominal jet energy scale ({Delta}{sub JES}) to perform a simultaneous fit for both parameters, where {Delta}{sub JES} is used for the in situ calibration of the jet energy scale. By applying a Feldman-Cousins approach, we establish an upper limit at 95% confidence level (CL) of {Lambda}{sub t} < 7.6 GeV and a two-sided 68% CL interval of 0.3 GeV < {Lambda}{sub t} < 4.4 GeV for a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV/c{sup 2}, which are consistant with the standard model prediction. This is the first direct measurement of {Lambda}{sub t} to set a lower limit with 68% CL.

  2. Effects of air pollution on children's respiratory health in three Chinese cities

    SciTech Connect

    Qian, Z.; Chapman, R.S.; Tian, Q.; Chen, Y.; Lioy, P.J.; Zhang, J.

    2000-04-01

    During the winter of 1988--1989, parents of 2,789 elementary-school students completed standardized questionnaires. The students were 5--14 y of age and were from three urban districts and one suburban district of three large Chinese cities. The 4-y average ambient levels of total suspended particles in the three cities differed greatly during the period 1985--1988: Lanzhou, 1,067 {micro}g/m{sup 3}; urban Wuhan, 406 {micro}g/m{sup 3}; Guangzhou, 296 {micro}g/m{sup 3}; and suburban Wuhan, 191 {micro}g/m{sup 3}. The authors constructed unconditional logistic-regression models to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for prevalences of several respiratory symptoms and illnesses, adjusted for district, use of coal in the home, and parental smoking status. There was a positive and significant association between total suspended particle levels and the adjusted odds ratios for couch, phlegm, hospitalization for diseases, and pneumonia. This association was derived from only the 1,784 urban children and, therefore, the authors were unable to extrapolate it to the suburban children. The results also indicated that parental smoking status was associated with cough and phlegm, and use of coal in the home was associated only with cough prevalence.

  3. Association of indoor nitrogen dioxide with respiratory symptoms and pulmonary function in children

    SciTech Connect

    Neas, L.M.; Dockery, D.W.; Ware, J.H.; Spengler, J.D.; Speizer, F.E.; Ferris, B.G. Jr. )

    1991-07-15

    The effect of indoor nitrogen dioxide on the cumulative incidence of respiratory symptoms and pulmonary function level was studied in a cohort of 1,567 white children aged 7-11 years examined in six US cities from 1983 through 1988. Week-long measurements of nitrogen dioxide were obtained at three indoor locations over 2 consecutive weeks in both the winter and the summer months. The household annual average nitrogen dioxide concentration was modeled as a continuous variable and as four ordered categories. Multiple logistic regression analysis of symptom reports from a questionnaire administered after indoor monitoring showed that a 15-ppb increase in the household annual nitrogen dioxide mean was associated with an increased cumulative incidence of lower respiratory symptoms (odds ratio (OR) = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (95% Cl) 1.1-1.7). The response variable indicated the report of one or more of the following symptoms: attacks of shortness of breath with wheeze, chronic wheeze, chronic cough, chronic phlegm, or bronchitis. Girls showed a stronger association (OR = 1.7, 95% Cl 1.3-2.2) than did boys (OR = 1.2, 95% Cl 0.9-1.5). An analysis of pulmonary function measurements showed no consistent effect of nitrogen dioxide. These results are consistent with earlier reports based on categorical indicators of household nitrogen dioxide sources and provide a more specific association with nitrogen dioxide as measured in children's homes.

  4. Health effects of acid aerosols on North American children: Respiratory symptoms

    SciTech Connect

    Dockery, D.W. |; Cunningham, J.; Damokosh, A.I.

    1996-05-01

    We examined the respiratory health effects of exposure to acidic air pollution among 13,369 white children 8 to 12 years old from 24 communities in the United States and Canada between 1988 and 1991. Each child`s parent or guardian completed a questionnaire. Air quality and meteorology were measured in each community for a 1-year period. We used a two-stage logistic regression model to analyze the data, adjusting for the period confounding effects of sex, history of allergies, parental asthma, parental education, and current smoking in the home. Children living in the community with the highest levels of particle strong acidity were significantly more likely [odds ratio (OR) = 1.66; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-2.48] to report at least one episode of bronchitis in the past year compared to children living in the least-polluted community. Fine particulate sulfate was also associated with higher reporting of bronchitis (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.12-2.42). No other respiratory symptoms were significantly higher in association with any of the air pollutants of interest. No sensitive subgroups were identified. Reported bronchitis, but neither asthma, wheeze, cough, nor phlegm, were associated with levels of particle strong acidity for these children living in a nonurban environment. 26 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

  5. Analysis of stray radiation produced by the advanced light source (1.9 GeV synchrotron radiation source) at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Ajemian, R.C.

    1995-12-31

    The yearly environmental dose equivalent likely to result at the closest site boundary from the Advanced Light Source was determined by generating multiple linear regressions. The independent variables comprised quantified accelerator operating parameters and measurements from synchronized, in-close (outside shielding prior to significant atmospheric scattering), state-of-the-art neutron remmeters and photon G-M tubes. Neutron regression models were more successful than photon models due to lower relative background radiation and redundant detectors at the site boundary. As expected, Storage Ring Beam Fill and Beam Crashes produced radiation at a higher rate than gradual Beam Decay; however, only the latter did not include zero in its 95% confidence interval. By summing for all three accelerator operating modes, a combined yearly DE of 4.3 mRem/yr with a 90% CI of (0.04-8.63) was obtained. These results fall below the DOE reporting level of 10 mRem/yr and suggest repeating the study with improved experimental conditions.

  6. Search for Violation of $CPT$ and Lorentz Invariance in ${B_s^0}$ Meson Oscillations

    SciTech Connect

    Abazov, Victor Mukhamedovich

    2015-06-12

    We present the first search for CPT-violating effects in the mixing of B0s mesons using the full Run II data set with an integrated luminosity of 10.4 fb-1 of proton-antiproton collisions collected using the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We measure the CPT-violating asymmetry in the decay B0s → µ±D±s as a function of celestial direction and sidereal phase. We find no evidence for CPT-violating effects and place limits on the direction and magnitude of flavor-dependent CPTand Lorentz-invariance violating coupling coefficients. We find 95% confidence intervals of Δa⊥ < 1.2 × 10-12 GeV and (-0.8 < ΔaT - 0.396ΔaZ < 3.9) × 10-13 GeV.

  7. Impact of Boost Radiation in the Treatment of Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: A Population-Based Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Rakovitch, Eileen; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario ; Narod, Steven A.; Womens College Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario ; Nofech-Moses, Sharon; Hanna, Wedad; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario ; Thiruchelvam, Deva; Saskin, Refik; Taylor, Carole; Tuck, Alan; Youngson, Bruce; Miller, Naomi; Done, Susan J.; Sengupta, Sandip; Elavathil, Leela; Henderson General Hospital, 711 Concession Street, Hamilton, Ontario ; Jani, Prashant A.; Regional Health Sciences Centre, Thunder Bay, Ontario ; Bonin, Michel; Metcalfe, Stephanie; Paszat, Lawrence; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario

    2013-07-01

    Purpose: To report the outcomes of a population of women with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation and to evaluate the independent effect of boost radiation on the development of local recurrence. Methods and Materials: All women diagnosed with DCIS and treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy in Ontario from 1994 to 2003 were identified. Treatments and outcomes were identified through administrative databases and validated by chart review. The impact of boost radiation on the development of local recurrence was determined using survival analyses. Results: We identified 1895 cases of DCIS that were treated by breast-conserving surgery and radiation therapy; 561 patients received boost radiation. The cumulative 10-year rate of local recurrence was 13% for women who received boost radiation and 12% for those who did not (P=.3). The 10-year local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) rate among women who did and who did not receive boost radiation was 88% and 87%, respectively (P=.27), 94% and 93% for invasive LRFS (P=.58), and was 95% and 93% for DCIS LRFS (P=.31). On multivariable analyses, boost radiation was not associated with a lower risk of local recurrence (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.59-1.15) (P=.25). Conclusions: Among a population of women treated with breast-conserving surgery and radiation for DCIS, additional (boost) radiation was not associated with a lower risk of local or invasive recurrence.

  8. Search for the Decay Modes D0 to e+ e-, D0 to mu+ mu-, and D0 to e+/- mu+/-

    SciTech Connect

    Lees, J. P.

    2012-08-03

    We present searches for the rare decay modes D{sup 0} {yields} e{sup +}e{sup -}, D{sup 0} {yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -}, and D{sup 0} {yields} e{sup {+-}}{mu}{sup {-+}} in continuum e{sup +}e{sup -} {yields} c{bar c} events recorded by the BABAR detector in a data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 468 fb{sup -1}. These decays are highly GIM suppressed but may be enhanced in several extensions of the Standard Model. Our observed event yields are consistent with the expected backgrounds. An excess is seen in the D{sup 0} {yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -} channel, although the observed yield is consistent with an upward background fluctuation at the 5% level. Using the Feldman-Cousins method, we set the following 90% confidence level intervals on the branching fractions: {Beta}(D{sup 0} {yields} e{sup +}e{sup -}) < 1.7 x 10{sup -7}, {Beta}(D{sup 0} {yields} {mu}{sup +}{mu}{sup -}) within [0.6, 8.1] x 10{sup -7}, and {Beta}(D{sup 0} {yields} e{sup {+-}}{mu}{sup {-+}}) < 3.3 x 10{sup -7}.

  9. Global Sensitivity Measures from Given Data

    SciTech Connect

    Elmar Plischke; Emanuele Borgonovo; Curtis L. Smith

    2013-05-01

    Simulation models support managers in the solution of complex problems. International agencies recommend uncertainty and global sensitivity methods as best practice in the audit, validation and application of scientific codes. However, numerical complexity, especially in the presence of a high number of factors, induces analysts to employ less informative but numerically cheaper methods. This work introduces a design for estimating global sensitivity indices from given data (including simulation input–output data), at the minimum computational cost. We address the problem starting with a statistic based on the L1-norm. A formal definition of the estimators is provided and corresponding consistency theorems are proved. The determination of confidence intervals through a bias-reducing bootstrap estimator is investigated. The strategy is applied in the identification of the key drivers of uncertainty for the complex computer code developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) assessing the risk of lunar space missions. We also introduce a symmetry result that enables the estimation of global sensitivity measures to datasets produced outside a conventional input–output functional framework.

  10. A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Andres, Robert Joseph; Boden, Thomas A; Breon, F.-M.; Erickson, D; Gregg, J. S.; Jacobson, Andrew; Marland, Gregg; Miller, J.; Oda, T; Raupach, Michael; Rayner, P; Treanton, K.

    2012-01-01

    This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores 5 our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e. maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions 10 from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10% uncertainty (95% 15 confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50 %. The information discussed in this manuscript synthesizes global, regional and national fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions, their distributions, their transport, and the associated uncertainties.

  11. Adoption of Hypofractionated Whole-Breast Irradiation for Early-Stage Breast Cancer: A National Cancer Data Base Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Elyn H.; Mougalian, Sarah S.; Soulos, Pamela R.; Rutter, Charles E.; Evans, Suzanne B.; Haffty, Bruce G.; Gross, Cary P.; Yu, James B.

    2014-12-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the relationship of patient, hospital, and cancer characteristics with the adoption of hypofractionation in a national sample of patients diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer. Methods and Materials: We performed a retrospective study of breast cancer patients in the National Cancer Data Base from 2004-2011 who were treated with radiation therapy and met eligibility criteria for hypofractionation. We used logistic regression to identify factors associated with receipt of hypofractionation (vs conventional fractionation). Results: We identified 13,271 women (11.7%) and 99,996 women (88.3%) with early-stage breast cancer who were treated with hypofractionation and conventional fractionation, respectively. The use of hypofractionation increased significantly, with 5.4% of patients receiving it in 2004 compared with 22.8% in 2011 (P<.001 for trend). Patients living ≥50 miles from the cancer reporting facility had increased odds of receiving hypofractionation (odds ratio 1.57 [95% confidence interval 1.44-1.72], P<.001). Adoption of hypofractionation was associated with treatment at an academic center (P<.001) and living in an area with high median income (P<.001). Hypofractionation was less likely to be used in patients with high-risk disease, such as increased tumor size (P<.001) or poorly differentiated histologic grade (P<.001). Conclusions: The use of hypofractionation is rising and is associated with increased travel distance and treatment at an academic center. Further adoption of hypofractionation may be tempered by both clinical and nonclinical concerns.

  12. Total Gross Tumor Volume Is an Independent Prognostic Factor in Patients Treated With Selective Nodal Irradiation for Stage I to III Small Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Reymen, Bart; Van Loon, Judith; Baardwijk, Angela van; Wanders, Rinus; Borger, Jacques; Dingemans, Anne-Marie C.; Bootsma, Gerben; Pitz, Cordula; Lunde, Ragnar; Geraedts, Wiel; Lambin, Philippe; De Ruysscher, Dirk; University Hospital Leuven/ KU Leuven, Leuven

    2013-04-01

    Purpose: In non-small cell lung cancer, gross tumor volume (GTV) influences survival more than other risk factors. This could also apply to small cell lung cancer. Methods and Materials: Analysis of our prospective database with stage I to III SCLC patients referred for concurrent chemo radiation therapy. Standard treatment was 45 Gy in 1.5-Gy fractions twice daily concurrently with carboplatin-etoposide, followed by prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) in case of non-progression. Only fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET)-positive or pathologically proven nodal sites were included in the target volume. Total GTV consisted of post chemotherapy tumor volume and pre chemotherapy nodal volume. Survival was calculated from diagnosis (Kaplan-Meier ). Results: A total of 119 patients were included between May 2004 and June 2009. Median total GTV was 93 ± 152 cc (7.5-895 cc). Isolated elective nodal failure occurred in 2 patients (1.7%). Median follow-up was 38 months, median overall survival 20 months (95% confidence interval = 17.8-22.1 months), and 2-year survival 38.4%. In multivariate analysis, only total GTV (P=.026) and performance status (P=.016) significantly influenced survival. Conclusions: In this series of stage I to III small cell lung cancer patients treated with FDG-PET-based selective nodal irradiation total GTV is an independent risk factor for survival.

  13. Preconception maternal polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations and the secondary sex ratio

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Kira C. [Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institutes of Child Health and Development (NICHD), NIH, DHHS, 6100 Executive Blvd, Room 7B03, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States); Department of Epidemiology, 1518 Clifton Road, NE Atlanta, GA 30322 (United States); Jackson, Leila W. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, WG37, Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, 10900 Euclid Avenue Cleveland, OH 44106-4945 (United States); Lynch, Courtney D. [Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institutes of Child Health and Development (NICHD), NIH, DHHS, 6100 Executive Blvd, Room 7B03, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States); Kostyniak, Paul J. [Toxicology Research Center, 134 Cary Hall, University at Buffalo, State of New York, 3434 Main St., Buffalo, NY 14214-3000 (United States); Buck Louis, Germaine M. [Division of Epidemiology, Statistics and Prevention Research, National Institutes of Child Health and Development (NICHD), NIH, DHHS, 6100 Executive Blvd, Room 7B03, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States)]. E-mail: louisg@mail.nih.gov

    2007-01-15

    The secondary sex ratio is the ratio of male to female live births and historically has ranged from 102 to 106 males to 100 females. Temporal declines have been reported in many countries prompting authors to hypothesize an environmental etiology. Blood specimens were obtained from 99 women aged 24-34 prior to attempting pregnancy and quantified for 76 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners using dual column gas chromatography with electron capture detection. Women were prospectively followed until pregnancy or 12 cycles of trying. The odds of a male birth for three PCB groupings (total, estrogenic, anti-estrogenic) controlling for maternal characteristics were estimated using logistic regression. Among the 50 women with live births and PCB data, 26 female and 24 male infants were born (ratio 0.92). After adjusting for age and body mass index, odds of a male birth were elevated among women in the second (OR=1.29) and third (OR=1.48) tertiles of estrogenic PCBs; odds (OR=0.70) were reduced among women in the highest tertile of anti-estrogenic PCBs. All confidence intervals included one. The direction of the odds ratios in this preliminary study varied by PCB groupings, supporting the need to study specific PCB patterns when assessing environmental influences on the secondary sex ratio.

  14. Sigma: Strain-level inference of genomes from metagenomic analysis for biosurveillance

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Ahn, Tae-Hyuk; Chai, Juanjuan; Pan, Chongle

    2014-09-29

    Motivation: Metagenomic sequencing of clinical samples provides a promising technique for direct pathogen detection and characterization in biosurveillance. Taxonomic analysis at the strain level can be used to resolve serotypes of a pathogen in biosurveillance. Sigma was developed for strain-level identification and quantification of pathogens using their reference genomes based on metagenomic analysis. Results: Sigma provides not only accurate strain-level inferences, but also three unique capabilities: (i) Sigma quantifies the statistical uncertainty of its inferences, which includes hypothesis testing of identified genomes and confidence interval estimation of their relative abundances; (ii) Sigma enables strain variant calling by assigning metagenomic readsmore » to their most likely reference genomes; and (iii) Sigma supports parallel computing for fast analysis of large datasets. In conclusion, the algorithm performance was evaluated using simulated mock communities and fecal samples with spike-in pathogen strains. Availability and Implementation: Sigma was implemented in C++ with source codes and binaries freely available at http://sigma.omicsbio.org.« less

  15. FERMI LARGE AREA TELESCOPE SECOND SOURCE CATALOG

    SciTech Connect

    Nolan, P. L.; Ajello, M.; Allafort, A.; Bechtol, K.; Berenji, B.; Blandford, R. D.; Bloom, E. D.; Abdo, A. A.; Ackermann, M.; Antolini, E.; Bonamente, E.; Atwood, W. B.; Belfiore, A.; Axelsson, M.; Baldini, L.; Bellazzini, R.; Ballet, J.; Bastieri, D.; Bignami, G. F. E-mail: Gino.Tosti@pg.infn.it E-mail: tburnett@u.washington.edu; and others

    2012-04-01

    We present the second catalog of high-energy {gamma}-ray sources detected by the Large Area Telescope (LAT), the primary science instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi), derived from data taken during the first 24 months of the science phase of the mission, which began on 2008 August 4. Source detection is based on the average flux over the 24 month period. The second Fermi-LAT catalog (2FGL) includes source location regions, defined in terms of elliptical fits to the 95% confidence regions and spectral fits in terms of power-law, exponentially cutoff power-law, or log-normal forms. Also included are flux measurements in five energy bands and light curves on monthly intervals for each source. Twelve sources in the catalog are modeled as spatially extended. We provide a detailed comparison of the results from this catalog with those from the first Fermi-LAT catalog (1FGL). Although the diffuse Galactic and isotropic models used in the 2FGL analysis are improved compared to the 1FGL catalog, we attach caution flags to 162 of the sources to indicate possible confusion with residual imperfections in the diffuse model. The 2FGL catalog contains 1873 sources detected and characterized in the 100 MeV to 100 GeV range of which we consider 127 as being firmly identified and 1171 as being reliably associated with counterparts of known or likely {gamma}-ray-producing source classes.

  16. Implementation of passive samplers for monitoring volatile organic compounds in ground water at the Kansas City Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Gardner, F.G.; Korte, N.E.; Wilson-Nichols, M.J.; Baker, J.L.; Ramm, S.G.

    1998-06-01

    Passive sampling for monitoring volatile organic compounds (VOCs) has been suggested as a possible replacement to the traditional bailer method used at the Department of Energy Kansas City Plant (KCP) for routine groundwater monitoring. To compare methods, groundwater samples were collected from 19 KCP wells with VOC concentrations ranging from non-detectable to > 100,000 {micro}g/L. Analysis of the data was conducted using means and medians of multiple measurements of TCE, 1,2-DCE, 1,1-DCE and VC. All 95% confidence intervals of these VOCs overlap, providing evidence that the two methods are similar. The study also suggests that elimination of purging and decontamination of sampling equipment reduces the labor required to sample by approximately 32%. Also, because the passive method generates no waste water, there are no associated disposal costs. The results suggest evidence to continue studies and efforts to replace traditional bailer methods with passive sampling at KCP based on cost and the similarity of the methods.

  17. Tank 241-T-201, core 192 analytical results for the final report

    SciTech Connect

    Nuzum, J.L.

    1997-08-07

    This document is the final laboratory report for Tank 241-T-201. Push mode core segments were removed from Riser 3 between April 24, 1997, and April 25, 1997. Segments were received and extruded at 222-S Laboratory. Analyses were performed in accordance with Tank 241-T-201 Push Mode Core Sampling and Analysis Plan (TSAP) (Hu, 1997), Letter of Instruction for Core Sample Analysis of Tanks 241-T-201, 241-T-202, 241-T-203, and 241-T-204 (LOI) (Bell, 1997), Additional Core Composite Sample from Drainable Liquid Samples for Tank 241-T-2 01 (ACC) (Hall, 1997), and Safety Screening Data Quality Objective (DQO) (Dukelow, et al., 1995). None of the subsamples submitted for total alpha activity (AT) or differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analyses exceeded the notification limits stated in DQO. The statistical results of the 95% confidence interval on the mean calculations are provided by the Tank Waste Remediation Systems Technical Basis Group, and are not considered in this report.

  18. Tank 241-AP-105, cores 208, 209 and 210, analytical results for the final report

    SciTech Connect

    Nuzum, J.L.

    1997-10-24

    This document is the final laboratory report for Tank 241-AP-105. Push mode core segments were removed from Risers 24 and 28 between July 2, 1997, and July 14, 1997. Segments were received and extruded at 222-S Laboratory. Analyses were performed in accordance with Tank 241-AP-105 Push Mode Core Sampling and Analysis Plan (TSAP) (Hu, 1997) and Tank Safety Screening Data Quality Objective (DQO) (Dukelow, et al., 1995). None of the subsamples submitted for total alpha activity (AT), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) analysis, or total organic carbon (TOC) analysis exceeded the notification limits as stated in TSAP and DQO. The statistical results of the 95% confidence interval on the mean calculations are provided by the Tank Waste Remediation Systems Technical Basis Group, and are not considered in this report. Appearance and Sample Handling Two cores, each consisting of four segments, were expected from Tank 241-AP-105. Three cores were sampled, and complete cores were not obtained. TSAP states core samples should be transported to the laboratory within three calendar days from the time each segment is removed from the tank. This requirement was not met for all cores. Attachment 1 illustrates subsamples generated in the laboratory for analysis and identifies their sources. This reference also relates tank farm identification numbers to their corresponding 222-S Laboratory sample numbers.

  19. Materials corrosion of high temperature alloys immersed in 600C binary nitrate salt.

    SciTech Connect

    Kruizenga, Alan Michael; Gill, David Dennis; LaFord, Marianne Elizabeth

    2013-03-01

    Thirteen high temperature alloys were immersion tested in a 60/40 binary nitrate salt. Samples were interval tested up to 3000 hours at 600ÀC with air as the ullage gas. Chemical analysis of the molten salt indicated lower nitrite concentrations present in the salt, as predicted by the equilibrium equation. Corrosion rates were generally low for all alloys. Corrosion products were identified using x-ray diffraction and electron microprobe analysis. Fe-Cr based alloys tended to form mixtures of sodium and iron oxides, while Fe-Ni/Cr alloys had similar corrosion products plus oxides of nickel and chromium. Nickel based alloys primarily formed NiO, with chromium oxides near the oxide/base alloy interface. In625 exhibited similar corrosion performance in relation to previous tests, lending confidence in comparisons between past and present experiments. HA230 exhibited internal oxidation that consisted of a nickel/chromium oxide. Alloys with significant aluminum alloying tended to exhibit superior performance, due formation of a thin alumina layer. Soluble corrosion products of chromium, molybdenum, and tungsten were also formed and are thought to be a significant factor in alloy performance.

  20. Cosmetic Outcome and Seroma Formation After Breast-Conserving Surgery With Intraoperative Radiation Therapy Boost for Early Breast Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Senthi, Sashendra; Link, Emma; Chua, Boon H.; University of Melbourne, Melbourne

    2012-10-01

    Purpose: To evaluate cosmetic outcome and its association with breast wound seroma after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) with targeted intraoperative radiation therapy (tIORT) boost for early breast cancer. Methods and Materials: An analysis of a single-arm prospective study of 55 patients with early breast cancer treated with BCS and tIORT boost followed by conventional whole breast radiation therapy (WBRT) between August 2003 and January 2006 was performed. A seroma was defined as a fluid collection at the primary tumor resection site identified clinically or radiologically. Cosmetic assessments using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer rating system were performed at baseline before BCS and 30 months after WBRT was completed. Results: Twenty-eight patients (51%) developed a seroma, with 18 patients (33%) requiring at least 1 aspiration. Tumor location was significantly associated with seroma formation (P=.001). Ten of 11 patients with an upper inner quadrant tumor developed a seroma. Excellent or good overall cosmetic outcome at 30 months was observed in 34 patients (62%, 95% confidence interval 53%-80%). Seroma formation was not associated with the overall cosmetic result (P=.54). Conclusion: BCS with tIORT boost followed by WBRT was associated with an acceptable cosmetic outcome. Seroma formation was not significantly associated with an adverse cosmetic outcome.

  1. The Impact of Preradiation Residual Disease Volume on Time to Locoregional Failure in Cutaneous Merkel Cell CarcinomaA TROG Substudy

    SciTech Connect

    Finnigan, Renee; Hruby, George; Wratten, Chris; Keller, Jacqui; Tripcony, Lee; Dickie, Graeme; Rischin, Danny; Poulsen, Michael

    2013-05-01

    Purpose: This study evaluated the impact of margin status and gross residual disease in patients treated with chemoradiation therapy for high-risk stage I and II Merkel cell cancer (MCC). Methods and Materials: Data were pooled from 3 prospective trials in which patients were treated with 50 Gy in 25 fractions to the primary lesion and draining lymph nodes and 2 schedules of carboplatin based chemotherapy. Time to locoregional failure was analyzed according to the burden of disease at the time of radiation therapy, comparing patients with negative margins, involved margins, or macroscopic disease. Results: Analysis was performed on 88 patients, of whom 9 had microscopically positive resection margins and 26 had macroscopic residual disease. The majority of gross disease was confined to nodal regions. The 5-year time to locoregional failure, time to distant failure, time to progression, and disease-specific survival rates for the whole group were 73%, 69%, 62%, and 66% respectively. The hazard ratio for macroscopic disease at the primary site or the nodes was 1.25 (95% confidence interval 0.57-2.77), P=.58. Conclusions: No statistically significant differences in time to locoregional failure were identified between patients with negative margins and those with microscopic or gross residual disease. These results must, however, be interpreted with caution because of the limited sample size.

  2. Charged Particle Radiation Therapy for Uveal Melanoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Zhen; Nabhan, Mohammed; Schild, Steven E.; Stafford, Scott L.; Petersen, Ivy A.; Foote, Robert L.; Murad, M. Hassan

    2013-05-01

    Charged particle therapy (CPT) delivered with either protons, helium ions, or carbon ions, has been used to treat uveal melanoma. The present analysis was performed to systematically evaluate the efficacy and adverse effects of CPT for uveal melanoma. We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and SciVerse Scopus and cross-referenced recent systematic reviews through January 2012. Two independent reviewers identified clinical trials and observational studies of CPT (protons, helium ions, and carbon ions). These reviewers extracted data and assessed study quality. Twenty-seven studies enrolling 8809 uveal melanoma patients met inclusion criteria. The rate of local recurrence was significantly less with CPT than with brachytherapy (odds ratio [OR] = 0.22, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21-0.23). There were no significant differences in mortality or enucleation rates. Results were robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. CPT was also associated with lower retinopathy and cataract formation rates. Data suggest better outcomes may be possible with charged particle therapy with respect to local recurrence, retinopathy, and cataract formation rates. The overall quality of the evidence is low, and higher quality comparative effectiveness studies are needed to provide better evidence.

  3. A FAST RADIO BURST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE CARINA DWARF SPHEROIDAL GALAXY

    SciTech Connect

    Ravi, V.; Shannon, R. M.; Jameson, A.

    2015-01-20

    We report the real-time discovery of a fast radio burst (FRB 131104) with the Parkes radio telescope in a targeted observation of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy. The dispersion measure of the burst is 779cm{sup 3}pc, exceeding predictions for the maximum line-of-sight Galactic contribution by a factor of 11. The temporal structure of the burst is characterized by an exponential scattering tail with a timescale of 2.0{sub ?0.5}{sup +0.8}ms at 1582MHz that scales as frequency to the power 4.4{sub ?1.8}{sup +1.6} (all uncertainties represent 95% confidence intervals). We bound the intrinsic pulse width to be <0.64ms due to dispersion smearing across a single spectrometer channel. Searches in 78hr of follow-up observations with the Parkes telescope reveal no additional sporadic emission and no evidence for associated periodic radio emission. We hypothesize that the burst is associated with the Carina dwarf galaxy. Follow-up observations at other wavelengths are necessary to test this hypothesis.

  4. Mass Properties Testing and Evaluation for the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator

    SciTech Connect

    Felicione, Frank S.

    2009-12-01

    Mass properties (MP) measurements were performed for the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG), serial number (S/N) 0X730401, the power system designated for the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission. Measurements were made using new mounting fixtures at the mass properties testing station in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Space and Security Power Systems Facility (SSPSF). The objective of making mass properties measurements was to determine the generators flight configured mass and center of mass or center of gravity (CG). Using an extremely accurate platform scale, the mass of the as-tested generator was determined to be 100.117 0.007 lb. Weight accuracy was determined by checking the platform scale with calibrated weights immediately prior to weighing the MMRTG.a CG measurement accuracy was assessed by surrogate testing using an inert mass standard for which the CG could be readily determined analytically. Repeated testing using the mass standard enabled the basic measurement precision of the system to be quantified in terms of a physical confidence interval about the measured CG position. However, repetitious testing with the MMRTG itself was not performed in deference to the gamma and neutron radiation dose to operators and the damage potential to the flight unit from extra handling operations. Since the mass standard had been specially designed to have a total weight and CG location that closely matched the MMRTG, the uncertainties determined from its testing were assigned to the MMRTG as well. On this basis, and at the 99% confidence level, a statistical analysis found the direct, as-measured MMRTG-MSL CG to be located at 10.816 0.0011 in. measured perpendicular from the plane of the lower surface of the generators mounting lugs (Z direction), and offset from the generators long axis centerline in the X and Y directions by 0.0968 0.0040 in. and 0.0276 0.0026 in., respectively. These uncertainties are based simply on the

  5. ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Title: ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Temperature Profiles from Raman ...

  6. Search for: All records | Data Explorer

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ARM: Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval Chitra Sivaraman ; Connor Flynn Temperature Profiles from Raman Lidar at 10-min averaging interval View ...

  7. Evaluation of Cross-Hole Seismic Tomography for Imaging Low Resistance...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Evaluation of Cross-Hole Seismic Tomography for Imaging Low Resistance Intervals and ... Title: Evaluation of Cross-Hole Seismic Tomography for Imaging Low Resistance Intervals ...

  8. Section 31

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    over the intervals. The intervals are The upward and downward fluxes are found by Gaussian quadrature of the radiances. Heating rates are computed from the fluxes. Upward and...

  9. Historical Doses from Tritiated Water and Tritiated Hydrogen Gas Released to the Atmosphere from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Part 6. Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, S

    2007-09-05

    Throughout fifty-three years of operations, an estimated 792,000 Ci (29,300 TBq) of tritium have been released to the atmosphere at the Livermore site of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); about 75% was tritium gas (HT) primarily from the accidental releases of 1965 and 1970. Routine emissions contributed slightly more than 100,000 Ci (3,700 TBq) HT and about 75,000 Ci (2,800 TBq) tritiated water vapor (HTO) to the total. A Tritium Dose Reconstruction was undertaken to estimate both the annual doses to the public for each year of LLNL operations and the doses from the few accidental releases. Some of the dose calculations were new, and the others could be compared with those calculated by LLNL. Annual doses (means and 95% confidence intervals) to the potentially most exposed member of the public were calculated for all years using the same model and the same assumptions. Predicted tritium concentrations in air were compared with observed mean annual concentrations at one location from 1973 onwards. Doses predicted from annual emissions were compared with those reported in the past by LLNL. The highest annual mean dose predicted from routine emissions was 34 {micro}Sv (3.4 mrem) in 1957; its upper confidence limit, based on very conservative assumptions about the speciation of the release, was 370 {micro}Sv (37 mrem). The upper confidence limits for most annual doses were well below the current regulatory limit of 100 {micro}Sv (10 mrem) for dose to the public from release to the atmosphere; the few doses that exceeded this were well below the regulatory limits of the time. Lacking the hourly meteorological data needed to calculate doses from historical accidental releases, ingestion/inhalation dose ratios were derived from a time-dependent accident consequence model that accounts for the complex behavior of tritium in the environment. Ratios were modified to account for only those foods growing at the time of the releases. The highest dose from an

  10. A Method for Evaluating Fire after Earthquake Scenarios for Single...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    LIMITS (UPL) Uncertainties depend on MMSF and PGA Confidence limits straightforward from GLM Prediction limits required some workresearch - Developed a...

  11. Microsoft PowerPoint - 6_Andy IMboden_Presentation to 2013 NMMSS Conference.ppt [Compatibility Mode]

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    Waste Confidence Activities Andy Imboden, Branch Chief Waste Confidence Directorate, U.S. NRC Agenda  What is Waste Confidence?  Brief History  2012 Court of Appeals Decision  Impacts  Path Forward  Opportunities for Participation  Contact Info and Resources 2 Waste Confidence  Generic "Findings" on Spent Fuel Storage and Repository Availability - Safety and environmental findings - Decision and Rule (10 CFR 51.23)  Relevant to new and operating reactor

  12. Measurement of CP observables in B__ ->D_CPK__ decays and constraints on the CKM angle gamma

    SciTech Connect

    del Amo Sanchez, P.; Lees, J.P.; Poireau, V.; Prencipe, E.; Tisserand, V.; Garra Tico, J.; Grauges, E.; Martinelli, M.; Palano, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Eigen, G.; Stugu, B.; Sun, L.; Battaglia, M.; Brown, D.N.; Hooberman, B.; Kerth, L.T.; Kolomensky, Yu.G.; Lynch, G.; Osipenkov, I.L.; Tanabe, T.; /UC, Berkeley /Birmingham U. /Ruhr U., Bochum /British Columbia U. /Brunel U. /Novosibirsk, IYF /UC, Irvine /UC, Riverside /UC, Santa Barbara /UC, Santa Cruz /Caltech /Cincinnati U. /Colorado U. /Colorado State U. /Dortmund U. /Dresden, Tech. U. /Ecole Polytechnique /Edinburgh U. /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /INFN, Ferrara /Ferrara U. /INFN, Ferrara /Frascati /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /INFN, Genoa /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /Indian Inst. Tech., Guwahati /Harvard U. /Heidelberg U. /Humboldt U., Berlin /Imperial Coll., London /Iowa State U. /Iowa State U. /Johns Hopkins U. /Paris U., VI-VII /LLNL, Livermore /Liverpool U. /Queen Mary, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Louisville U. /Mainz U., Inst. Kernphys. /Manchester U. /Maryland U. /Massachusetts U., Amherst /MIT /McGill U. /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /INFN, Milan /INFN, Milan /Milan U. /Mississippi U. /Montreal U. /INFN, Naples /Naples U. /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /NIKHEF, Amsterdam /Notre Dame U. /Ohio State U. /Oregon U. /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /INFN, Padua /INFN, Padua /Padua U. /Paris U., VI-VII /INFN, Perugia /Perugia U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Pisa, Scuola Normale Superiore /INFN, Pisa /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Princeton U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /INFN, Rome /INFN, Rome /Rome U. /Rostock U. /Rutherford /DAPNIA, Saclay /SLAC /South Carolina U. /Southern Methodist U. /Stanford U., Phys. Dept. /SUNY, Albany /Tel Aviv U. /Tennessee U. /Texas U. /Texas U., Dallas /INFN, Turin /Turin U. /INFN, Trieste /Trieste U. /Valencia U. /Victoria U. /Warwick U. /Wisconsin U., Madison

    2010-08-25

    Using the entire sample of 467 million {Upsilon}(4S) {yields} B{bar B} decays collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy B factory at SLAC, we perform a 'GLW' analysis of B{sup {+-}} {yields} D{sup {+-}} decays, using decay modes in which the neutral D meson decays to either CP-eigenstates or non-CP-eigenstates. We measure the partial decay rate charge asymmetries for CP-even and CP-odd D final states to be A{sub CP+} = 0.25 {+-} 0.06 {+-} 0.02 and A{sub CP-} = -0.09 {+-} 0.07 {+-} 0.02, respectively, where the first error is the statistical and the second is the systematic uncertainty. The parameter A{sub CP+} is different from zero with a significance of 3.6 standard deviations, constituting evidence for direct CP violation. We also measure the ratios of the charged-averaged B partial decay rates in CP and non-CP decays, R{sub CP+} = 1.18 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.05 and R{sub CP-} = 1.07 {+-} 0.08 {+-} 0.04. We infer frequentist confidence intervals for the angle {gamma} of the (db) unitarity triangle, for the strong phase difference {delta}{sub B}, and for the amplitude ratio r{sub B}, which are related to the B{sup -} {yields} D{sup -} decay amplitude by r{sub B}e{sup i({delta}{sub b-{gamma}})} = A(B{sup -} {yields} {bar D}{sup 0}K{sup -})/A(B{sup -} {yields} D{sup 0}K{sup 0-}). Including statistical and systematic uncertainties, they obtain 0.24 < r{sub B} < 0.45 (0.06 < r{sub B} < 0.51) and, modulo 180{sup o}, 11.3{sup o} < {gamma} < 22.7{sup o} or 80.9{sup o} < {gamma} < 99.1{sup o} or 157.3{sup o} < {gamma} 168.7{sup o} (7.0{sup o} < {gamma} < 173.0{sup o}) at the 68% (95%) confidence level.

  13. COMPARISON OF RESULTS FOR QUARTER 3 SURFACE WATER SPLIT SAMPLES COLLECTED AT THE NUCLEAR FUEL SERVICES SITE, ERWIN, TENNESSEE

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2013-05-28

    Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU), under the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) contract, collected split surface water samples with Nuclear Fuel Services (NFS) representatives on March 20, 2013. Representatives from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation were also in attendance. Samples were collected at four surface water stations, as required in the approved Request for Technical Assistance number 11-018. These stations included Nolichucky River upstream (NRU), Nolichucky River downstream (NRD), Martin Creek upstream (MCU), and Martin Creek downstream (MCD). Both ORAU and NFS performed gross alpha and gross beta analyses, and Table 1 presents the comparison of results using the duplicate error ratio (DER), also known as the normalized absolute difference. A DER {<=} 3 indicates that at a 99% confidence interval, split sample results do not differ significantly when compared to their respective one standard deviation (sigma) uncertainty (ANSI N42.22). The NFS split sample report does not specify the confidence level of reported uncertainties (NFS 2013). Therefore, standard two sigma reporting is assumed and uncertainty values were divided by 1.96. In conclusion, most DER values were less than 3 and results are consistent with low (e.g., background) concentrations. The gross beta result for sample 5198W0012 was the exception. The ORAU result of 9.23 ± 0.73 pCi/L from location MCD is well above NFS's result of -0.567 ± 0.63 pCi/L (non-detected). NFS's data package included a detected result for U-233/234, but no other uranium or plutonium detection, and nothing that would suggest the presence of beta-emitting radionuclides. The ORAU laboratory reanalyzed sample 5198W0012 using the remaining portion of the sample volume and a result of 11.3 ± 1.1 pCi/L was determined. As directed, the laboratory also counted the filtrate using gamma spectrometry analysis and

  14. PREFERRED WATERFLOOD MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR THE SPRABERRY TREND AREA

    SciTech Connect

    C. M. Sizemore; David S. Schechter

    2003-08-13

    This report describes the work performed during the second year of the project, ''Preferred Waterflood Management Practices for the Spraberry Trend Area''. The objective of this project is to significantly increase field-wide production in the Spraberry Trend in a short time frame through the application of preferred practices for managing and optimizing water injection. Our goal is to dispel negative attitudes and lack of confidence in water injection and to document the methodology and results for public dissemination to motivate waterflood expansion in the Spraberry Trend. To achieve this objective, in this period we concentrated our effort on characterization of Germania Unit using an analog field ET ODaniel unit and old cased hole neutron. Petrophysical Characterization of the Germania Spraberry units requires a unique approach for a number of reasons--limited core data, lack of modern log data and absence of directed studies within the unit. The need for characterization of the Germania unit has emerged as a first step in the review, understanding and enhancement of the production practices applicable within the unit and the trend area in general. In the absence or lack of the afore mentioned resources, an approach that will rely heavily on previous petrophysical work carried out in the neighboring ET O'Daniel unit (6.2 miles away), and normalization of the old log data prior to conventional interpretation techniques will be used. A log-based rock model has been able to guide successfully the prediction of pay and non-pay intervals within the ET O'Daniel unit, and will be useful if found applicable within the Germania unit. A novel multiple regression technique utilizing non-parametric transformations to achieve better correlations in predicting a dependent variable (permeability) from multiple independent variables (rock type, shale volume and porosity) will also be investigated in this study. A log data base includes digitized formats of Gamma Ray, Cased

  15. Constraining |V(td)|/|V(ts)| Using Radiative Penguin B -> V(K*/rho/omega)gamma Decays

    SciTech Connect

    Tan, Ping; /Wisconsin U., Madison

    2006-03-08

    Exclusive radiative penguin B decays, B {yields} (K*{sup 0}/K*{sup +}) and B {yields} ({rho}/{omega}){gamma}, are flavor-changing neutral-current (FCNC) processes. Studies of these decays are of special interest in testing Standard Model (SM) predictions and searching for other beyond-the-SM FCNC interactions. Using 89 x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs from BABAR, we measure the branching fraction ({Beta}), CP-asymmetry ({Alpha}), and isospin asymmetry ({Delta}{sub 0-}) of B {yields} (K*{sup 0}/K*{sup +}){gamma} as follows: {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} K*{sup 0}{gamma}) = 3.92 {+-} 0.20(stat.) {+-} 0.24(syst.); {Beta}(B{sup +} {yields} K*{sup +}{gamma}) = 3.87 {+-} 0.28(stat.) {+-} 0.26(syst.); {Alpha}(B {yields} K*{gamma}) = -0.013 {+-} 0.36(stat.) {+-} 0.10(syst.); {Delta}{sub 0-}(B {yields} K*{gamma}) = 0.050 {+-} 0.045(stat.) {+-} 0.028(syst.) {+-} 0.024(R{sup +/0}). The 90% confidence intervals for the CP-asymmetry and the isospin-asymmetry in the B {yields} K*{gamma} decay are given as: -0.074 < {Alpha}(B {yields} K*{gamma}) < 0.049, -0.046 < {Delta}{sub 0-} (B {yields} K*{gamma}) < 0.146. We also search for B {yields} ({rho}/{omega}){gamma} decays using 211 x 10{sup 6} B{bar B} pairs from BABAR. No evidence for these decays is found. We set the upper limits at 90% confidence level for these decays: {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {rho}{sup 0}{gamma}) < 0.4 x 10{sup -6}; {Beta}(B{sup +}{yields} {rho}{sup =}{gamma}) < 1.8 x 10{sup -6}; {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {omega}{gamma}) < 1.0 x 10{sup -6}; {bar {Beta}}(B {yields} ({rho}/{omega}){gamma}) < 1.2 x 10{sup -6}. These results are in good agreement with the SM predictions. The branching fractions of these decays are then used to constrain the ratio |V{sub td}|/|V{sub ts}|.

  16. The Impact of Brachytherapy on Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality for Definitive Radiation Therapy of High-Grade Prostate Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Shen Xinglei; Keith, Scott W.; Mishra, Mark V.; Dicker, Adam P.; Showalter, Timothy N.

    2012-07-15

    Purpose: This population-based analysis compared prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) in a cohort of patients with high-risk prostate cancer after nonsurgical treatment with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), brachytherapy (BT), or combination (BT + EBRT). Methods and Materials: We identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database patients diagnosed from 1988 through 2002 with T1-T3N0M0 prostate adenocarcinoma of poorly differentiated grade and treated with BT, EBRT, or BT + EBRT. During this time frame, the database defined high grade as prostate cancers with Gleason score 8-10, or Gleason grade 4-5 if the score was not recorded. This corresponds to a cohort primarily with high-risk prostate cancer, although some cases where only Gleason grade was recorded may have included intermediate-risk cancer. We used multivariate models to examine patient and tumor characteristics associated with the likelihood of treatment with each radiation modality and the effect of radiation modality on PCSM. Results: There were 12,745 patients treated with EBRT (73.5%), BT (7.1%), or BT + EBRT (19.4%) included in the analysis. The median follow-up time for all patients was 6.4 years. The use of BT or BT + EBRT increased from 5.1% in 1988-1992 to 31.4% in 1998-2002. Significant predictors of use of BT or BT + EBRT were younger age, later year of diagnosis, urban residence, and earlier T-stage. On multivariate analysis, treatment with either BT (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.49-0.86) or BT + EBRT (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence ratio, 0.66-0.90) was associated with significant reduction in PCSM compared with EBRT alone. Conclusion: In patients with high-grade prostate cancer, treatment with brachytherapy is associated with reduced PCSM compared with EBRT alone. Our results suggest that brachytherapy should be investigated as a component of definitive treatment strategies for patients with high-risk prostate cancer.

  17. Summary of Research through Phase II/Year 2 of Initially Approved 3 Phase/3 Year Project - Establishing the Relationship between Fracture-Related Dolomite and Primary Rock Fabric on the Distribution of Reservoirs in the Michigan Basin

    SciTech Connect

    G. Grammer

    2007-09-30

    This final scientific/technical report covers the first 2 years (Phases I and II of an originally planned 3 Year/3 Phase program). The project was focused on evaluating the relationship between fracture-related dolomite and dolomite constrained by primary rock fabric in the 3 most prolific reservoir intervals in the Michigan Basin. The characterization of select dolomite reservoirs was the major focus of our efforts in Phases I and II of the project. Structural mapping and log analysis in the Dundee (Devonian) and Trenton/Black River (Ordovician) suggest a close spatial relationship among gross dolomite distribution and regional-scale, wrench fault-related NW-SE and NE-SW structural trends. A high temperature origin for much of the dolomite in these 2 studied intervals (based upon fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures and stable isotopic analyses,) coupled with persistent association of this dolomite in reservoirs coincident with wrench fault-related features, is strong evidence for these reservoirs being influenced by hydrothermal dolomitization. In the Niagaran (Silurian), there is a general trend of increasing dolomitization shelfward, with limestone predominant in more basinward positions. A major finding is that facies types, when analyzed at a detailed level, are directly related to reservoir porosity and permeability in these dolomites which increases the predictability of reservoir quality in these units. This pattern is consistent with our original hypothesis of primary facies control on dolomitization and resulting reservoir quality at some level. The identification of distinct and predictable vertical stacking patterns within a hierarchical sequence and cycle framework provides a high degree of confidence at this point that the results should be exportable throughout the basin. Much of the data synthesis and modeling for the project was scheduled to be part of Year 3/Phase III, but the discontinuation of funding after Year 2 precluded those efforts

  18. Measurement of the CP-Violating Phase beta_s in B0s -> J/Psi Phi Decays with the CDF II Detector

    SciTech Connect

    Aaltonen, T.; et al.

    2012-04-01

    We present a measurement of the \\CP-violating parameter \\betas using approximately 6500 $\\BsJpsiPhi$ decays reconstructed with the CDF\\,II detector in a sample of $p\\bar p$ collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV corresponding to 5.2 fb$^{-1}$ integrated luminosity produced by the Tevatron Collider at Fermilab. We find the \\CP-violating phase to be within the range $\\betas \\in [0.02, 0.52] \\cup [1.08, 1.55]$ at 68% confidence level where the coverage property of the quoted interval is guaranteed using a frequentist statistical analysis. This result is in agreement with the standard model expectation at the level of about one Gaussian standard deviation. We consider the inclusion of a potential $S$-wave contribution to the $\\Bs\\to J/\\psi K^+K^-$ final state which is found to be negligible over the mass interval $1.009 < m(K^+K^-)<1.028 \\gevcc$. Assuming the standard model prediction for the \\CP-violating phase \\betas, we find the \\Bs decay width difference to be $\\deltaG = 0.075 \\pm 0.035\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.006\\,\\textrm{(syst)} \\ps$. We also present the most precise measurements of the \\Bs mean lifetime $\\tau(\\Bs) = 1.529 \\pm 0.025\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.012\\,\\textrm{(syst)}$ ps, the polarization fractions $|A_0(0)|^2 = 0.524 \\pm 0.013\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.015\\,\\textrm{(syst)}$ and $|A_{\\parallel}(0)|^2 = 0.231 \\pm 0.014\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.015\\,\\textrm{(syst)}$, as well as the strong phase $\\delta_{\\perp}= 2.95 \\pm 0.64\\,\\textrm{(stat)} \\pm 0.07\\,\\textrm{(syst)} \\textrm{rad}$. In addition, we report an alternative Bayesian analysis that gives results consistent with the frequentist approach.

  19. Measurement of the CP-violating phase βsJ/ψΦ in Bs0→J/ψΦ decays with the CDF II detector

    SciTech Connect

    Aaltonen, T.; Álvarez González, B.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J. A.; Arisawa, T.; Artikov, A.; Asaadi, J.; Ashmanskas, W.; Auerbach, B.; Aurisano, A.; Azfar, F.; Badgett, W.; Bae, T.; Barbaro-Galtieri, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Barnett, B. A.; Barria, P.; Bartos, P.; Bauce, M.; Bedeschi, F.; Behari, S.; Bellettini, G.; Bellinger, J.; Benjamin, D.; Beretvas, A.; Bhatti, A.; Bisello, D.; Bizjak, I.; Bland, K. R.; Blumenfeld, B.; Bocci, A.; Bodek, A.; Bortoletto, D.; Boudreau, J.; Bousson, N.; Boveia, A.; Brigliadori, L.; Bromberg, C.; Brucken, E.; Budagov, J.; Budd, H. S.; Burkett, K.; Busetto, G.; Bussey, P.; Buzatu, A.; Calamba, A.; Calancha, C.; Camarda, S.; Campanelli, M.; Campbell, M.; Canelli, F.; Carls, B.; Carlsmith, D.; Carosi, R.; Carrillo, S.; Carron, S.; Casal, B.; Casarsa, M.; Castro, A.; Catastini, P.; Cauz, D.; Cavaliere, V.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Cerri, A.; Cerrito, L.; Chen, Y. C.; Chertok, M.; Chiarelli, G.; Chlachidze, G.; Chlebana, F.; Cho, K.; Chokheli, D.; Chung, W. H.; Chung, Y. S.; Ciocci, M. A.; Clark, A.; Clarke, C.; Compostella, G.; Convery, M. E.; Conway, J.; Corbo, M.; Cordelli, M.; Cox, C. A.; Cox, D. J.; Crescioli, F.; Cuevas, J.; Culbertson, R.; Dagenhart, D.; d’Ascenzo, N.; Datta, M.; de Barbaro, P.; Dell’Orso, M.; Demortier, L.; Deninno, M.; Devoto, F.; d’Errico, M.; Di Canto, A.; Di Ruzza, B.; Dittmann, J. R.; D’Onofrio, M.; Donati, S.; Dong, P.; Dorigo, M.; Dorigo, T.; Ebina, K.; Elagin, A.; Eppig, A.; Erbacher, R.; Errede, S.; Ershaidat, N.; Eusebi, R.; Farrington, S.; Feindt, M.; Fernandez, J. P.; Field, R.; Flanagan, G.; Forrest, R.; Frank, M. J.; Franklin, M.; Freeman, J. C.; Funakoshi, Y.; Furic, I.; Gallinaro, M.; Garcia, J. E.; Garfinkel, A. F.; Garosi, P.; Gerberich, H.; Gerchtein, E.; Giagu, S.; Giakoumopoulou, V.; Giannetti, P.; Gibson, K.; Ginsburg, C. M.; Giokaris, N.; Giromini, P.; Giurgiu, G.; Glagolev, V.; Glenzinski, D.; Gold, M.; Goldin, D.; Goldschmidt, N.; Golossanov, A.; Gomez, G.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; González, O.; Gorelov, I.; Goshaw, A. T.; Goulianos, K.; Grinstein, S.; Grosso-Pilcher, C.; Group, R. C.; Guimaraes da Costa, J.; Hahn, S. R.; Halkiadakis, E.; Hamaguchi, A.; Han, J. Y.; Happacher, F.; Hara, K.; Hare, D.; Hare, M.; Harr, R. F.; Hatakeyama, K.; Hays, C.; Heck, M.; Heinrich, J.; Herndon, M.; Hewamanage, S.; Hocker, A.; Hopkins, W.; Horn, D.; Hou, S.; Hughes, R. E.; Hurwitz, M.; Husemann, U.; Hussain, N.; Hussein, M.; Huston, J.; Introzzi, G.; Iori, M.; Ivanov, A.; James, E.; Jang, D.; Jayatilaka, B.; Jeon, E. J.; Jindariani, S.; Jones, M.; Joo, K. K.; Jun, S. Y.; Junk, T. R.; Kamon, T.; Karchin, P. E.; Kasmi, A.; Kato, Y.; Ketchum, W.; Keung, J.; Khotilovich, V.; Kilminster, B.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, H. S.; Kim, J. E.; Kim, M. J.; Kim, S. B.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, Y. K.; Kim, Y. J.; Kimura, N.; Kirby, M.; Klimenko, S.; Knoepfel, K.; Kondo, K.; Kong, D. J.; Konigsberg, J.; Kotwal, A. V.; Kreps, M.; Kroll, J.; Krop, D.; Kruse, M.; Krutelyov, V.; Kuhr, T.; Kurata, M.; Kwang, S.; Laasanen, A. T.; Lami, S.; Lammel, S.; Lancaster, M.; Lander, R. L.; Lannon, K.; Lath, A.; Latino, G.; LeCompte, T.; Lee, E.; Lee, H. S.; Lee, J. S.; Lee, S. W.; Leo, S.; Leone, S.; Lewis, J. D.; Limosani, A.; Lin, C.-J.; Lindgren, M.; Lipeles, E.; Lister, A.; Litvintsev, D. O.; Liu, C.; Liu, H.; Liu, Q.; Liu, T.; Lockwitz, S.; Loginov, A.; Lucchesi, D.; Lueck, J.; Lujan, P.; Lukens, P.; Lungu, G.; Lys, J.; Lysak, R.; Madrak, R.; Maeshima, K.; Maestro, P.; Malik, S.; Manca, G.; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A.; Margaroli, F.; Marino, C.; Martínez, M.; Mastrandrea, P.; Matera, K.; Mattson, M. E.; Mazzacane, A.; Mazzanti, P.; McFarland, K. S.; McIntyre, P.; McNulty, R.; Mehta, A.; Mehtala, P.; Mesropian, C.; Miao, T.; Mietlicki, D.; Mitra, A.; Miyake, H.; Moed, S.; Moggi, N.; Mondragon, M. N.; Moon, C. S.; Moore, R.; Morello, M. J.; Morlock, J.; Movilla Fernandez, P.; Mukherjee, A.; Muller, Th.; Murat, P.; Mussini, M.; Nachtman, J.; Nagai, Y.; Naganoma, J.; Nakano, I.; Napier, A.; Nett, J.; Neu, C.; Neubauer, M. S.; Nielsen, J.; Nodulman, L.; Noh, S. Y.; Norniella, O.; Oakes, L.; Oh, S. H.; Oh, Y. D.; Oksuzian, I.; Okusawa, T.; Orava, R.; Ortolan, L.; Pagan Griso, S.; Pagliarone, C.; Palencia, E.; Papadimitriou, V.; Paramonov, A. A.; Patrick, J.; Pauletta, G.; Paulini, M.; Paus, C.; Pellett, D. E.; Penzo, A.; Phillips, T. J.; Piacentino, G.; Pianori, E.; Pilot, J.; Pitts, K.; Plager, C.; Pondrom, L.; Poprocki, S.; Potamianos, K.; Prokoshin, F.; Pranko, A.; Ptohos, F.; Pueschel, E.; Punzi, G.; Rahaman, A.; Ramakrishnan, V.; Ranjan, N.; Redondo, I.; Renton, P.; Rescigno, M.; Riddick, T.; Rimondi, F.; Ristori, L.; Robson, A.; Rodrigo, T.; Rodriguez, T.; Rogers, E.; Rolli, S.; Roser, R.; Ruffini, F.; Ruiz, A.; Russ, J.; Rusu, V.; Safonov, A.; Sakumoto, W. K.; Sakurai, Y.; Santi, L.; Sato, K.; Saveliev, V.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schlabach, P.; Schmidt, A.; Schmidt, E. E.; Schwarz, T.; Scodellaro, L.; Scribano, A.; Scuri, F.; Seidel, S.; Seiya, Y.; Semenov, A.; Sforza, F.; Shalhout, S. Z.; Shears, T.; Shepard, P. F.; Shimojima, M.; Shochet, M.; Shreyber-Tecker, I.; Simonenko, A.; Sinervo, P.; Sliwa, K.; Smith, J. R.; Snider, F. D.; Soha, A.; Sorin, V.; Song, H.; Squillacioti, P.; Stancari, M.; Denis, R. St.; Stelzer, B.; Stelzer-Chilton, O.; Stentz, D.; Strologas, J.; Strycker, G. L.; Sudo, Y.; Sukhanov, A.; Suslov, I.; Takemasa, K.; Takeuchi, Y.; Tang, J.; Tecchio, M.; Teng, P. K.; Thom, J.; Thome, J.; Thompson, G. A.; Thomson, E.; Toback, D.; Tokar, S.; Tollefson, K.; Tomura, T.; Tonelli, D.; Torre, S.; Torretta, D.; Totaro, P.; Trovato, M.; Ukegawa, F.; Uozumi, S.; Varganov, A.; Vázquez, F.; Velev, G.; Vellidis, C.; Vidal, M.; Vila, I.; Vilar, R.; Vizán, J.; Vogel, M.; Volpi, G.; Wagner, P.; Wagner, R. L.; Wakisaka, T.; Wallny, R.; Wang, S. M.; Warburton, A.; Waters, D.; Wester, W. C.; Whiteson, D.; Wicklund, A. B.; Wicklund, E.; Wilbur, S.; Wick, F.; Williams, H. H.; Wilson, J. S.; Wilson, P.; Winer, B. L.; Wittich, P.; Wolbers, S.; Wolfe, H.; Wright, T.; Wu, X.; Wu, Z.; Yamamoto, K.; Yamato, D.; Yang, T.; Yang, U. K.; Yang, Y. C.; Yao, W.-M.; Yeh, G. P.; Yi, K.; Yoh, J.; Yorita, K.; Yoshida, T.; Yu, G. B.; Yu, I.; Yu, S. S.; Yun, J. C.; Zanetti, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhou, C.; Zucchelli, S.

    2012-04-23

    We present a measurement of the CP-violating parameter βsJ/ψΦ using approximately 6500 B0s→J/ψΦ decays reconstructed with the CDF II detector in a sample of pp̄ collisions at √s=1.96 TeV corresponding to 5.2 fb⁻¹ integrated luminosity produced by the Tevatron collider at Fermilab. We find the CP-violating phase to be within the range βsJ/ψΦϵ [0.02,0.52]∪[1.08,1.55] at 68% confidence level where the coverage property of the quoted interval is guaranteed using a frequentist statistical analysis. This result is in agreement with the standard model expectation at the level of about one Gaussian standard deviation. We consider the inclusion of a potential S-wave contribution to the B0s→J/ψK⁺K⁻ final state which is found to be negligible over the mass interval 1.009sJ/ψΦ, we find the B0s decay width difference to be ΔΓs=0.075±0.035(stat)±0.006(syst) ps⁻¹. We also present the most precise measurements of the B0s mean lifetime τ(B0s)=1.529±0.025(stat)±0.012(syst) ps, the polarization fractions |A0(0)|²=0.524±0.013(stat)±0.015(syst) and |A II (0)|²=0.231±0.014(stat)±0.015(syst), as well as the strong phase δ=2.95±0.64(stat)±0.07(syst) rad. In addition, we report an alternative Bayesian analysis that gives results consistent with the frequentist approach.

  20. Salvage Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases: Prognostic Factors to Consider in Patient Selection

    SciTech Connect

    Kurtz, Goldie; Zadeh, Gelareh; Gingras-Hill, Geneviève; Millar, Barbara-Ann; Laperriere, Normand J.; Bernstein, Mark; Jiang, Haiyan; Ménard, Cynthia; Chung, Caroline

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) is offered to patients for recurrent brain metastases after prior brain radiation therapy (RT), but few studies have evaluated the efficacy of salvage SRS or factors to consider in selecting patients for this treatment. This study reports overall survival (OS), intracranial progression-free survival (PFS), and local control (LC) after salvage SRS, and factors associated with outcomes. Methods and Materials: This is a retrospective review of patients treated from 2009 to 2011 with salvage SRS after prior brain RT for brain metastases. Survival from salvage SRS and from initial brain metastases diagnosis (IBMD) was calculated. Univariate and multivariable (MVA) analyses included age, performance status, recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) class, extracranial disease control, and time from initial RT to salvage SRS. Results: There were 106 patients included in the analysis with a median age of 56.9 years (range 32.5-82 years). A median of 2 metastases were treated per patient (range, 1-12) with a median dose of 21 Gy (range, 12-24) prescribed to the 50% isodose. With a median follow-up of 10.5 months (range, 0.1-68.2), LC was 82.8%, 60.1%, and 46.8% at 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years, respectively. Median PFS was 6.2 months (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.9-7.6). Median OS was 11.7 months (95% CI = 8.1-13) from salvage SRS, and 22.1 months from IBMD (95% CI = 18.4-26.8). On MVA, age (P=.01; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.04; 95% CI = 1.01-1.07), extracranial disease control (P=.004; HR = 0.46; 95% CI = 0.27-0.78), and interval from initial RT to salvage SRS of at least 265 days (P=.001; HR = 2.46; 95% CI = 1.47-4.09) were predictive of OS. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that patients can have durable local control and survival after salvage SRS for recurrent brain metastases. In particular, younger patients with controlled extracranial disease and a durable response to initial brain RT are likely to benefit from salvage SRS.