National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for including text forecast

  1. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  2. Solar Energy Education. Renewable energy: a background text. [Includes glossary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1985-01-01

    Some of the most common forms of renewable energy are presented in this textbook for students. The topics include solar energy, wind power hydroelectric power, biomass ocean thermal energy, and tidal and geothermal energy. The main emphasis of the text is on the sun and the solar energy that it yields. Discussions on the sun's composition and the relationship between the earth, sun and atmosphere are provided. Insolation, active and passive solar systems, and solar collectors are the subtopics included under solar energy. (BCS)

  3. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  4. Solar Forecasting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  5. Forecast Change

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 ...

  6. Full Text Glossary

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The full-text glossary includes terms used throughout the website and in Biomass Program publications. Terms are listed alphabetically for easy reference. The term index lists all of the terms defined in the glossary.

  7. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  9. Solar Forecasting Technical Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting Technical Workshop August 3, 2016 901 D St SW, Suite #930, Washington, DC Agenda 8:00-8:30 Check-in 8:30-8:45 Welcome & Opening remarks Guohui Yuan, DOE 8:45-9:15 Overview of Motivation and Techniques for Solar Forecasting Jan Kleissl, UCSD 9:15-9:45 Collaborative Research on Solar Power Forecasting: Challenges, Methods, and Assessment Tara Jensen, NCAR 9:45-10:00 Break 10:00-10:30 Machine-learning Based Enhancements for Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Research to Applications

  10. Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  11. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  12. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  13. 2016 SSL Forecast Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, is a biannual report which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S. general-lighting market,...

  14. SSL Forecast Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, is the latest edition of a biannual report which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S....

  15. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  16. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  17. Text analysis methods, text analysis apparatuses, and articles of manufacture

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Whitney, Paul D; Willse, Alan R; Lopresti, Charles A; White, Amanda M

    2014-10-28

    Text analysis methods, text analysis apparatuses, and articles of manufacture are described according to some aspects. In one aspect, a text analysis method includes accessing information indicative of data content of a collection of text comprising a plurality of different topics, using a computing device, analyzing the information indicative of the data content, and using results of the analysis, identifying a presence of a new topic in the collection of text.

  18. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  19. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  20. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-10-02

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  1. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  2. Text analysis devices, articles of manufacture, and text analysis methods

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Turner, Alan E; Hetzler, Elizabeth G; Nakamura, Grant C

    2013-05-28

    Text analysis devices, articles of manufacture, and text analysis methods are described according to some aspects. In one aspect, a text analysis device includes processing circuitry configured to analyze initial text to generate a measurement basis usable in analysis of subsequent text, wherein the measurement basis comprises a plurality of measurement features from the initial text, a plurality of dimension anchors from the initial text and a plurality of associations of the measurement features with the dimension anchors, and wherein the processing circuitry is configured to access a viewpoint indicative of a perspective of interest of a user with respect to the analysis of the subsequent text, and wherein the processing circuitry is configured to use the viewpoint to generate the measurement basis.

  3. Solar Webinar Text Version

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Download the text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on solar renewable energy.

  4. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  5. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  6. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  7. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  8. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  9. The forecast calls for flu

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  10. MDF Overview (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is a text version of the Manufacturing Demonstration Facilities (MDF) overview video, originally presented on March 12, 2012 at the MDF Workshop held in Chicago, Illinois.

  11. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  12. Text analysis devices, articles of manufacture, and text analysis methods

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Turner, Alan E; Hetzler, Elizabeth G; Nakamura, Grant C

    2015-03-31

    Text analysis devices, articles of manufacture, and text analysis methods are described according to some aspects. In one aspect, a text analysis device includes a display configured to depict visible images, and processing circuitry coupled with the display and wherein the processing circuitry is configured to access a first vector of a text item and which comprises a plurality of components, to access a second vector of the text item and which comprises a plurality of components, to weight the components of the first vector providing a plurality of weighted values, to weight the components of the second vector providing a plurality of weighted values, and to combine the weighted values of the first vector with the weighted values of the second vector to provide a third vector.

  13. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  14. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  15. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  16. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  17. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  18. Widget:AnchorText | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    you can specify a target, title, and style to the link. Parameters include: page - pagearticle title for href link text - anchor text title - title to display for anchor...

  19. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  20. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.

  1. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  2. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-11-10.xlsx (70.03 KB) More Documents & Publications National Nuclear Security Administration - Juliana Heynes Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment

  3. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  4. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting Workshop 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the

  5. TEXT Pro Force Training

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Basic Protective Force Training Program DOE/IG-0641 March 2004 * None of the 10 sites included instruction in rappelling even though it was part of the special response team core curriculum and continued to be offered by the Nonprolif- eration and National Security Institute; * Only one site conducted basic training on use of a shotgun, despite the fact that a num- ber of sites used the weapon for breaching exercises and other purposes; and, * Seven of the sites modified prescribed training

  6. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  7. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  8. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  9. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  10. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program ...

  11. July 2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting: Maximizing its value for grid integration Introduction The forecasting of power generated by variable energy resources such as wind and solar has been the focus of academic and industrial research and development for as long as significant amounts of these renewable energy resources have been connected to the electric grid. The progress of forecasting capabilities has largely followed the penetration of the respective resources, with wind forecasting

  12. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  13. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  14. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  15. Remedial investigation work plan for Bear Creek Valley Operable Unit 1 (S-3 Ponds, Boneyard/Burnyard, Oil Landfarm, Sanitary Landfill 1, and the Burial Grounds, including Oil Retention Ponds 1 and 2) at the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Volume 1, Main text

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-09-01

    The intent and scope of the work plan are to assemble all data necessary to facilitate selection of remediation alternatives for the sites in Bear Creek Valley Operable Unit 1 (BCV OU 1) such that the risk to human health and the environment is reduced to acceptable levels based on agreements with regulators. The ultimate goal is to develop a final Record Of Decision (ROD) for all of the OUs in BCV, including the integrator OU. However, the initial aim of the source OUs is to develop a ROD for interim measures. For source OUs such as BCV OU 1, data acquisition will not be carried out in a single event, but will be carried out in three stages that accommodate the schedule for developing a ROD for interim measures and the final site-wide ROD. The three stages are as follows: Stage 1, Assemble sufficient data to support decisions such as the need for removal actions, whether to continue with the remedial investigation (RI) process, or whether no further action is required. If the decision is made to continue the RI/FS process, then: Stage 2, Assemble sufficient data to allow for a ROD for interim measures that reduce risks to the human health and the environment. Stage 3, Provide input from the source OU that allows a final ROD to be issued for all OUs in the BCV hydrologic regime. One goal of the RI work plan will be to ensure that sampling operations required for the initial stage are not repeated at later stages. The overall goals of this RI are to define the nature and extent of contamination so that the impact of leachate, surface water runoff, and sediment from the OU I sites on the integrator OU can be evaluated, the risk to human health and the environment can be defined, and the general physical characteristics of the subsurface can be determined such that remedial alternatives can be screened.

  16. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  17. CEMI Industrial Efficiency (text version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Below is the text version for the Clean Energy Manufacturing Initiative Industrial Efficiency and Energy Productivity Video.  

  18. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American ...

  19. July 2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... Those costs comprise fuel costs from expensive generators ... an improved-accuracy forecast of the solar power generation. ... analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power ...

  20. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  1. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  2. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  3. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  4. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  5. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  6. Pump apparatus including deconsolidator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Sonwane, Chandrashekhar; Saunders, Timothy; Fitzsimmons, Mark Andrew

    2014-10-07

    A pump apparatus includes a particulate pump that defines a passage that extends from an inlet to an outlet. A duct is in flow communication with the outlet. The duct includes a deconsolidator configured to fragment particle agglomerates received from the passage.

  7. Optical modulator including grapene

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Liu, Ming; Yin, Xiaobo; Zhang, Xiang

    2016-06-07

    The present invention provides for a one or more layer graphene optical modulator. In a first exemplary embodiment the optical modulator includes an optical waveguide, a nanoscale oxide spacer adjacent to a working region of the waveguide, and a monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to the spacer. In a second exemplary embodiment, the optical modulator includes at least one pair of active media, where the pair includes an oxide spacer, a first monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to a first side of the spacer, and a second monolayer graphene sheet adjacent to a second side of the spacer, and at least one optical waveguide adjacent to the pair.

  8. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  9. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  10. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  11. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  12. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  13. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  14. text | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Contributor 17 September, 2013 - 12:39 Are you willing to reply to a text message once a day with information about your comfort level at your indoor location? building...

  15. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  16. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  17. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  19. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  20. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  1. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. 2012 NERSC User Survey Text

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    2012 User Survey Text 2010/2011 User Survey Results 2009/2010 User Survey Results 2008/2009 User Survey Results 2007/2008 User Survey Results 2006 User Survey Results 2005 User Survey Results 2004 User Survey Results 2003 User Survey Results 2002 User Survey Results 2001 User Survey Results 2000 User Survey Results 1999 User Survey Results 1998 User Survey Results HPC Requirements for Science HPC Workshop Reports NERSC Staff Publications & Presentations Journal Cover Stories Galleries

  3. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  4. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage contains 72-hr...

  5. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  6. Funding Opportunity Announcement: Solar Forecasting 2 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Solar Forecasting 2 Funding Opportunity Announcement: Solar Forecasting 2 Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Number: DE-FOA-0001649 Funding Amount: $10 million Description The Solar Forecasting 2 funding program will support projects that enable grid operators to better forecast how much solar energy will be added to the grid and accelerate the integration of these forecasts into energy management systems used by grid operators and utility companies. These tools will enable grid

  7. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  8. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  9. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  10. Extraction of information from unstructured text

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Irwin, N.H.; DeLand, S.M.; Crowder, S.V.

    1995-11-01

    Extracting information from unstructured text has become an emphasis in recent years due to the large amount of text now electronically available. This status report describes the findings and work done by the end of the first year of a two-year LDRD. Requirements of the approach included that it model the information in a domain independent way. This means that it would differ from current systems by not relying on previously built domain knowledge and that it would do more than keyword identification. Three areas that are discussed and expected to contribute to a solution include (1) identifying key entities through document level profiling and preprocessing, (2) identifying relationships between entities through sentence level syntax, and (3) combining the first two with semantic knowledge about the terms.

  11. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  12. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  13. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  14. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  15. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by ...

  16. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  17. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  18. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  19. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  20. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at the desired locations in the United States. More accurate solar

  1. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  4. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  5. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-10-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  6. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  7. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  8. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Biomass Webinar Text Version | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Text Version Biomass Webinar Text Version Dowload the text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on biomass. DOE Office of Indian Energy Foundational Course Webinar on Biomass: Text Version (153.94 KB) More Documents & Publications Biomass Webinar Presentation Slides Assessing Energy Resources Webinar Text Version Transcript: Biomass Clean Cities Webinar - Workforce Development

  10. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  11. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  12. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  13. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  14. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  15. Wind Webinar Text Version | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Text Version Wind Webinar Text Version Download the text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on wind renewable energy. Text Version of the DOE Office of Indian Energy Foundational Course on Wind (172.73 KB) More Documents & Publications SERC Photovoltaics for Residential Buildings Webinar Transcript strategiesforsuccessfulenergymanagement.doc Biomass Webinar

  16. Connected Buildings Interoperability Vision Webinar (Text Version)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Below is the text version of the webinar Connected Buildings Interoperability Vision, presented in May 2015.

  17. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  18. Wind speed forecasting in the central California wind resource area

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McCarthy, E.F.

    1997-12-31

    A wind speed forecasting program was implemented in the summer seasons of 1985 - 87 in the Central California Wind Resource Area (WRA). The forecasting program is designed to use either meteorological observations from the WRA and local upper air observations or upper air observations alone to predict the daily average windspeed at two locations. Forecasts are made each morning at 6 AM and are valid for a 24 hour period. Ease of use is a hallmark of the program as the daily forecast can be made using data entered into a programmable HP calculator. The forecasting program was the first step in a process to examine whether the electrical energy output of an entire wind power generation facility or defined subsections of the same facility could be predicted up to 24 hours in advance. Analysis of the results of the summer season program using standard forecast verification techniques show the program has skill over persistence and climatology.

  19. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf] campaign was scheduled to take place from 15 July

  20. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf] campaign was scheduled to take place from 15 July

  1. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  2. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association Team roster: Dan Paikowsky, Management; Christian Bain, Entrepreneurship; Noah Meunier, Mechanical Engineering &

  3. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC). Begin Module >> (471

  4. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. Report of the External Peer Review Panel (777.84 KB) More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  5. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  6. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore ...

  7. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addthis Related Articles DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Publishes Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program ...

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  9. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  10. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  11. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  12. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  13. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  14. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Savers

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  15. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  16. Alt Text Requirements for Web Images

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Per Section 508 requirements, images on Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) websites and applications must have alt text. Alt text describes what an image looks like in words, making it accessible to screen readers.

  17. Searching for Text (pbl/help)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    for Text Other Navigation Aids PDF File Info Firstgov Searching for Text The Power Services web site features a Search tool (powered by Google) in the upper right corner of...

  18. Strategic Energy Planning Webinar Text Version

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Download the text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on strategic energy planning.

  19. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  20. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  1. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  2. Text Transcript of the Tribal Energy and Economic Development...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    ... look at the next day, put together a load forecast. ... a long term fixed price hedge on your energy and end capacity over that period. What you no longer have are fuel cost ...

  3. Full Text of the National Electric Transmission Congestion Study...

    Energy Savers

    ... Fuel price assumptions are shown below in Figures 2-1 and ... case (east)-For the long term, the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2006 low price case forecast for 2008-2015 was used as ...

  4. Wind Career Map Text Version | Department of Energy

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Below is the text version for the Wind Career Map. The application includes five fields of ... All jobs link to the Wind Energy Career Map: Resource List and the Frequently Asked ...

  5. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  6. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  7. DOE and Critical Materials Video (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is a text version of the "DOE and Critical Materials" video presented at the Critical Materials Workshop, held on April 3, 2012 in Arlington, Virginia.

  8. Fuel Cell Animation- Chemical Process (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This text version of the fuel cell animation demonstrates how a fuel cell uses hydrogen to produce electricity, with only water and heat as byproducts.

  9. Manufacturing Ecosystems and Keystone Technologies (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is a text version of the Manufacturing Ecosystems and Keystone Technologies video, originally presented on March 12, 2012 at the MDF Workshop held in Chicago, Illinois.

  10. Welcome and Advanced Manufacturing Partnership (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is a text version of the Welcome and Advanced Manufacturing Partnership video, originally presented on March 12, 2012 at the MDF Workshop held in Chicago, Illinois.

  11. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  12. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  13. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  15. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  16. Texts to Hillary-- from Secretary Chu

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    We showed the "Texts from Hillary" Tumblr to Secretary Chu and he thought is was as hilarious as everyone else on the Internet, so we got to work on a contribution on his behalf.

  17. MDF Form and Function (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is a text version of the Manufacturing Demonstration Facilities (MDF) Form and Function video, originally presented on March 12, 2012 at the MDF Workshop held in Chicago, Illinois.

  18. Vehicle Technologies Office: Lightweighting Video Text Version

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This is a text version of the Motorweek video segment Materials Technology / Vehicle Lightweighting, which aired on April 21, 2014. The full video is on the Lightweight Materials for Cars and...

  19. Addressing grid challenges and exploring opportunities, including DR

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Simms, Scott

    2011-10-25

    Wind is valuable to PNW power generation mix. BPA supports development of wind generation forecasting, utility operational protocols and business practices, Demand Response, and storage applications.

  20. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  1. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema (OSTI)

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2016-07-12

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  2. Text-Alternative Version: Dimming LEDs Webcast | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers

    Dimming LEDs Webcast Text-Alternative Version: Dimming LEDs Webcast Below is the text-alternative version of the "Dimming LEDs" webcast, held December 10, 2012. Kelly Gordon: We're very happy to have as our speaker today Michael Poplawski, also of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Michael joined PNNL in 2009 as a senior engineer following 12 years in the commercial semiconductor industry. His work experience includes stints with domestic and foreign component manufacturers ranging

  3. Text-Alternative Version: LED Essentials - Technology, Applications,

    Energy Savers

    Advantages, Disadvantages | Department of Energy Essentials - Technology, Applications, Advantages, Disadvantages Text-Alternative Version: LED Essentials - Technology, Applications, Advantages, Disadvantages Below is the text-alternative version of the LED Essentials - Technology, Applications, Advantages, Disadvantages webcast. Speaker: Hi, this is Kevin Dowling. I'm with Philips Solid-State Lighting in Burlington, Massachusetts. I'm the head of innovation, but my industrial roles include

  4. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  5. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  6. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  7. Computation of term dominance in text documents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bauer, Travis L.; Benz, Zachary O.; Verzi, Stephen J.

    2012-04-24

    An improved entropy-based term dominance metric useful for characterizing a corpus of text documents, and is useful for comparing the term dominance metrics of a first corpus of documents to a second corpus having a different number of documents.

  8. Text Delegation Procedures - DOE Directives, Delegations, and

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Requirements Text Delegation Procedures Delegation Procedures Re-Delegation Procedures by Website Administrator Procedures for Line Managers' Delegations of Authority when proposing new delegations, redelegating existing delegation, proposing an amendment, rescinding a delegation, and when a delegation is not needed. Delegation Procedures Redelegation Procedures Procedures for Delegations of Authority Please use the following procedures when Proposing New Delegations; Redelegating Existing

  9. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  10. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  11. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  12. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications compares the annual lighting energy consumption in the U.S. with and ...

  13. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  14. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  15. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  16. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  17. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  18. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  19. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  20. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  1. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in

    Energy Savers

    Solar Energy | Department of Energy Soft Costs » Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Arizona State University, and the University of Oxford. -- This project is inactive -- The University of North Carolina at Charlotte, along with their partners at Arizona State University and the University of Oxford,

  2. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  3. Notice of Intent to Issue Solar Forecasting 2 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting 2 Notice of Intent to Issue Solar Forecasting 2 Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Number: DE-FOA-0001658 Funding Amount: $10,000,000 The SunShot Initiative intends to release a funding opportunity announcement (FOA) to support advancements in solar forecasting to enable higher penetration of solar power in the electric grid. The Solar Forecasting 2 FOA will focus on improving solar forecasting skills, especially during challenging conditions, such as partly cloudy weather

  4. Better Plants Look Ahead Webinar: Text Version

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The Better Plants Program hosted a webinar on January 22, 2015 to review accomplishments to date and detail new initiatives to save partners energy and water. Question and answer session is included. Download presentation slides.

  5. National Residential Efficiency Measures Database Unveiled (text...

    Energy Savers

    ... And you can find more information about that on the Internet if you look around. NREL has ... And we'll talk more about this, but performance parameters include things like U values of ...

  6. http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=0af428

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    ... drinking water supply systems; and stormwater systems, including combined sewer ... and distribute drinking water; and stormwater systems, including combined sewer ...

  7. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  8. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  9. Interpolating Low Time-Resolution Forecast Data

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2015-11-03

    Methodology that interpolates low time-resolution data (e.g., hourly) to high time-resolution (e.g., minutely) with variability patterns extracted from historical records. Magnitude of the variability inserted into the low timeresolution data can be adjusted according to the installed capacity represented by the low time-resolution data compared to that by historical records. This approach enables detailed analysis of the impacts from wind and solar on power system intra-hour operations and balancing reserve requirements even with only hourlymore » data. It also allows convenient creation of high resolution wind or solar generation data with various degree of variability to investigate their operational impacts. The methodology comprises of the following steps: 1. Smooth the historical data (set A) with an appropriate window length l to get its trend (set B); l can be a fraction of an hour (e.g., 15 minutes) or longer than an hour, of which the length of the variability patterns will be; 2. Extract the variable component (set C) of historical data by subtracting the smooth trend from it, i.e. set C = set A – set B 3. For each window length l of the variable component data set, find the average value x (will call it base component) of the corresponding window of the historical data set; 4. Define a series of segments (set D) that the values of data will be grouped into, e.g. (0, 0.1), (0.1, 0.2), …, (0.9, 1.0) after normalization; Link each variability pattern to a data segment based on its corresponding base component x; after this step, each data segment should be linked to multiple variability patterns after this step; 5. Use spline function to interpolate the low time-resolution forecast data (set E) to become a high time-resolution smooth curve (set F); 6. Based on the window length l , calculate the average value y in each window length of set F; find the data segment that y belongs to; then randomly select one of the variability patterns linked to this

  10. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  11. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  12. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  13. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  14. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  15. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  16. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  17. Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar; Marianno, Fernando J.; Shao, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hamann, Hendrik F.

    2015-07-15

    With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual model has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.

  18. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  19. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  20. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  1. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  2. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  3. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge. If wind

  4. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  5. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ... Gamma and that of Q is inverse Wishart. 5 Our forecasts take into account that the model parameters continue to drift over the forecast horizon according to their law of motion. ...

  6. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  7. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  8. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  9. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  10. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; Lancaster, Nick; Marani, Marco; Merritts, Dorothy J.; Moore, Laura J.; Pederson, Joel L.; Poulos, Michael J.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Rowland, Joel C.; Ruggiero, Peter; Ward, Dylan J.; Wickert, Andrew D.; Yager, Elowyn M.

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

  11. Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Pelletier, Jon D.; Murray, A. Brad; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Bierman, Paul R.; Breshears, David D.; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Ellis, Michael; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi; Heimsath, Arjun M.; Houser, Chris; et al

    2015-07-14

    In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we havemore » the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.« less

  12. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  13. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  14. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  15. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  16. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  18. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  19. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  20. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  1. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  2. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  3. MAchine-Readable Cataloging (MARC) Records for Full-text Reports...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    records from SciTech Connect that contain links to freely available full-text. For the purpose of this service, full-text includes textual material, multimedia files, and datasets. ...

  4. Solid Waste Integrated Forecast Technical (SWIFT) Report FY2001 to FY2046 Volume 1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2000-08-31

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. This report does not include: waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste); mixed low-level waste that will be processed and disposed by the River Protection Program; and liquid waste (current or future generation). Although this report currently does not include liquid wastes, they may be added as information becomes available.

  5. Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions Quantitative Analysis of Biofuel Sustainability, Including Land Use Change GHG Emissions ...

  6. http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&rgn=div5...

    National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

    ... and replacing in mined-out areas coal ash, earthen materials from farming or ... (3) From the dumping and transportation of coal and coal ash (including fly ash, bottom ...

  7. DOE Challenge Home Comprehensive Building Science Webinar (Text...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Comprehensive Building Science Webinar (Text Version) DOE Challenge Home Comprehensive Building Science Webinar (Text Version) Below is the text version of the webinar, DOE Zero...

  8. Home Energy Score Pilot Analysis Webinar (Text Version) | Department...

    Energy Savers

    Home Energy Score Pilot Analysis Webinar (Text Version) Home Energy Score Pilot Analysis Webinar (Text Version) Below is a text version of the webinar titled "Home Energy Score: ...

  9. Home Energy Score Program Update Webinar (Text Version) | Department...

    Energy Savers

    Webinar (Text Version) Home Energy Score Program Update Webinar (Text Version) Below is a text version of the webinar titled "Home Energy Score: Program Update for Interested ...

  10. Standardized Software for Wind Load Forecast Error Analyses and Predictions Based on Wavelet-ARIMA Models - Applications at Multiple Geographically Distributed Wind Farms

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hou, Zhangshuan; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.; Etingov, Pavel V.

    2013-03-19

    Given the multi-scale variability and uncertainty of wind generation and forecast errors, it is a natural choice to use time-frequency representation (TFR) as a view of the corresponding time series represented over both time and frequency. Here we use wavelet transform (WT) to expand the signal in terms of wavelet functions which are localized in both time and frequency. Each WT component is more stationary and has consistent auto-correlation pattern. We combined wavelet analyses with time series forecast approaches such as ARIMA, and tested the approach at three different wind farms located far away from each other. The prediction capability is satisfactory -- the day-ahead prediction of errors match the original error values very well, including the patterns. The observations are well located within the predictive intervals. Integrating our wavelet-ARIMA (stochastic) model with the weather forecast model (deterministic) will improve our ability significantly to predict wind power generation and reduce predictive uncertainty.

  11. Topic A Note: Includes STEPS Subtopic

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Topic A Note: Includes STEPS Subtopic 33 Total Projects Developing and Enhancing Workforce Training Programs...

  12. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  13. text_sunshot_rtc.docx | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers

    text_sunshot_rtc.docx text_sunshot_rtc.docx text_sunshot_rtc.docx text_sunshot_rtc.docx (12.94 KB) More Documents & Publications SunShot Summit: Regional Test Centers text_sunshot_csp.docx text_sunshot_pdil.docx

  14. Finding Text Information in the Ocean of Electronic Documents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Medvick, Patricia A.; Calapristi, Augustin J.

    2003-02-05

    Information management in natural resources has become an overwhelming task. A massive amount of electronic documents and data is now available for creating informed decisions. The problem is finding the relevant information to support the decision-making process. Determining gaps in knowledge in order to propose new studies or to determine which proposals to fund for maximum potential is a time-consuming and difficult task. Additionally, available data stores are increasing in complexity; they now may include not only text and numerical data, but also images, sounds, and video recordings. Information visualization specialists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have software tools for exploring electronic data stores and for discovering and exploiting relationships within data sets. These provide capabilities for unstructured text explorations, the use of data signatures (a compact format for the essence of a set of scientific data) for visualization (Wong et al 2000), visualizations for multiple query results (Havre et al. 2001), and others (http://www.pnl.gov/infoviz ). We will focus on IN-SPIRE, a MS Windows vision of PNNL’s SPIRE (Spatial Paradigm for Information Retrieval and Exploration). IN-SPIRE was developed to assist information analysts find and discover information in huge masses of text documents.

  15. Forecasting photovoltaic array power production subject to mismatch losses

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Picault, D.; Raison, B.; Bacha, S.; de la Casa, J.; Aguilera, J.

    2010-07-15

    The development of photovoltaic (PV) energy throughout the world this last decade has brought to light the presence of module mismatch losses in most PV applications. Such power losses, mainly occasioned by partial shading of arrays and differences in PV modules, can be reduced by changing module interconnections of a solar array. This paper presents a novel method to forecast existing PV array production in diverse environmental conditions. In this approach, field measurement data is used to identify module parameters once and for all. The proposed method simulates PV arrays with adaptable module interconnection schemes in order to reduce mismatch losses. The model has been validated by experimental results taken on a 2.2 kW{sub p} plant, with three different interconnection schemes, which show reliable power production forecast precision in both partially shaded and normal operating conditions. Field measurements show interest in using alternative plant configurations in PV systems for decreasing module mismatch losses. (author)

  16. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  17. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  18. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  19. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  20. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  1. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  2. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  3. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  4. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  5. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  6. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  7. text_sunshot_pdil.docx | Department of Energy

    Energy Savers

    pdil.docx text_sunshot_pdil.docx text_sunshot_pdil.docx text_sunshot_pdil.docx (13.13 KB) More Documents & Publications SunShot Summit: Process Development and Integration Laboratory text_sunshot_rtc.docx text_sunshot_csp

  8. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  9. INSTRUMENTATION, INCLUDING NUCLEAR AND PARTICLE DETECTORS; RADIATION

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    interval technical basis document Chiaro, P.J. Jr. 44 INSTRUMENTATION, INCLUDING NUCLEAR AND PARTICLE DETECTORS; RADIATION DETECTORS; RADIATION MONITORS; DOSEMETERS;...

  10. Printing a Car: A Team Effort in Innovation (Text Version) |...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Printing a Car: A Team Effort in Innovation (Text Version) Printing a Car: A Team Effort in Innovation (Text Version) Below is the text version of the video Printing a Car: A Team ...

  11. Text-Alternative Version: Hitting the Target: ENERGY STAR® SSL...

    Energy Savers

    Hitting the Target: ENERGY STAR SSL Outdoor Area Lighting Text-Alternative Version: Hitting the Target: ENERGY STAR SSL Outdoor Area Lighting Below is the text-alternative ...

  12. Video, Audio, and Animation Text Versions for Web Accessibility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Videos, Animations, & Audio Video, Audio, and Animation Text Versions for Web Accessibility Video, Audio, and Animation Text Versions for Web Accessibility For accessibility, ...

  13. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  14. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  15. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Utility Grid System Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Awardee: Clean Power Research Location: Napa, CA Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Program: Solar Utility Networks: Replicable Innovations in Solar Energy (SUNRISE) Project: Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid

  16. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  17. Gas storage materials, including hydrogen storage materials

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mohtadi, Rana F; Wicks, George G; Heung, Leung K; Nakamura, Kenji

    2013-02-19

    A material for the storage and release of gases comprises a plurality of hollow elements, each hollow element comprising a porous wall enclosing an interior cavity, the interior cavity including structures of a solid-state storage material. In particular examples, the storage material is a hydrogen storage material such as a solid state hydride. An improved method for forming such materials includes the solution diffusion of a storage material solution through a porous wall of a hollow element into an interior cavity.

  18. Communications circuit including a linear quadratic estimator

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ferguson, Dennis D.

    2015-07-07

    A circuit includes a linear quadratic estimator (LQE) configured to receive a plurality of measurements a signal. The LQE is configured to weight the measurements based on their respective uncertainties to produce weighted averages. The circuit further includes a controller coupled to the LQE and configured to selectively adjust at least one data link parameter associated with a communication channel in response to receiving the weighted averages.

  19. Gas storage materials, including hydrogen storage materials

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Mohtadi, Rana F; Wicks, George G; Heung, Leung K; Nakamura, Kenji

    2014-11-25

    A material for the storage and release of gases comprises a plurality of hollow elements, each hollow element comprising a porous wall enclosing an interior cavity, the interior cavity including structures of a solid-state storage material. In particular examples, the storage material is a hydrogen storage material, such as a solid state hydride. An improved method for forming such materials includes the solution diffusion of a storage material solution through a porous wall of a hollow element into an interior cavity.

  20. Updated Eastern Interconnect Wind Power Output and Forecasts for ERGIS: July 2012

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Pennock, K.

    2012-10-01

    AWS Truepower, LLC (AWST) was retained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to update wind resource, plant output, and wind power forecasts originally produced by the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS). The new data set was to incorporate AWST's updated 200-m wind speed map, additional tall towers that were not included in the original study, and new turbine power curves. Additionally, a primary objective of this new study was to employ new data synthesis techniques developed for the PJM Renewable Integration Study (PRIS) to eliminate diurnal discontinuities resulting from the assimilation of observations into mesoscale model runs. The updated data set covers the same geographic area, 10-minute time resolution, and 2004?2006 study period for the same onshore and offshore (Great Lakes and Atlantic coast) sites as the original EWITS data set.

  1. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  2. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  3. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  4. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminatio...

    Energy Savers

    (1.54 MB) More Documents & Publications Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications - Report 2016 SSL Forecast Report LED ADOPTION REPORT

  5. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  6. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  7. Video, Audio, and Animation Text Versions for Web Accessibility |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Video, Audio, and Animation Text Versions for Web Accessibility Video, Audio, and Animation Text Versions for Web Accessibility For accessibility, Section 508 requires text versions of video, audio, and animations. Follow the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's (EERE's) requirements for developing a text version for a video, audio file, or animation. Requirements Follow these requirements for developing a text version for a video, audio file, or animation.

  8. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting Preprint J. Zhang, B.-M. Hodge, and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory S. Lu and H. F. Hamann IBM TJ Watson Research Center V. Banunarayanan U.S. Department of Energy To be presented at 3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems London, England October 21 - 22, 2013 Conference Paper NREL/CP-5500-60142 October 2013 NOTICE The submitted manuscript has been offered by an employee of the

  9. Scramjet including integrated inlet and combustor

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Kutschenreuter, P.H. Jr.; Blanton, J.C.

    1992-02-04

    This patent describes a scramjet engine. It comprises: a first surface including an aft facing step; a cowl including: a leading edge and a trailing edge; an upper surface and a lower surface extending between the leading edge and the trailing edge; the cowl upper surface being spaced from and generally parallel to the first surface to define an integrated inlet-combustor therebetween having an inlet for receiving and channeling into the inlet-combustor supersonic inlet airflow; means for injecting fuel into the inlet-combustor at the step for mixing with the supersonic inlet airflow for generating supersonic combustion gases; and further including a spaced pari of sidewalls extending between the first surface to the cowl upper surface and wherein the integrated inlet-combustor is generally rectangular and defined by the sidewall pair, the first surface and the cowl upper surface.

  10. Electric Power Monthly, August 1990. [Glossary included

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-11-29

    The Electric Power Monthly (EPM) presents monthly summaries of electric utility statistics at the national, Census division, and State level. The purpose of this publication is to provide energy decisionmakers with accurate and timely information that may be used in forming various perspectives on electric issues that lie ahead. Data includes generation by energy source (coal, oil, gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear); generation by region; consumption of fossil fuels for power generation; sales of electric power, cost data; and unusual occurrences. A glossary is included.

  11. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    .g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gas prices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gas prices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

  12. Inclusion in the Workplace - Text Version | Careers | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Inclusion in the Workplace - Text Version This is the text version for the Inclusion in the Workplace video. Manajit Sengupta: I work at NREL because of primarily the challenges, ...

  13. DOE Challenge Home Better Business for Builders Webinar (Text Version)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Below is a text version of the webinar titled "DOE Challenge Home: Better Business for Builders," originally presented in May 2012. In addition to this text version of the audio, you can access the...

  14. Photoactive devices including porphyrinoids with coordinating additives

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Forrest, Stephen R; Zimmerman, Jeramy; Yu, Eric K; Thompson, Mark E; Trinh, Cong; Whited, Matthew; Diev, Vlacheslav

    2015-05-12

    Coordinating additives are included in porphyrinoid-based materials to promote intermolecular organization and improve one or more photoelectric characteristics of the materials. The coordinating additives are selected from fullerene compounds and organic compounds having free electron pairs. Combinations of different coordinating additives can be used to tailor the characteristic properties of such porphyrinoid-based materials, including porphyrin oligomers. Bidentate ligands are one type of coordinating additive that can form coordination bonds with a central metal ion of two different porphyrinoid compounds to promote porphyrinoid alignment and/or pi-stacking. The coordinating additives can shift the absorption spectrum of a photoactive material toward higher wavelengths, increase the external quantum efficiency of the material, or both.

  15. Subterranean barriers including at least one weld

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Nickelson, Reva A.; Sloan, Paul A.; Richardson, John G.; Walsh, Stephanie; Kostelnik, Kevin M.

    2007-01-09

    A subterranean barrier and method for forming same are disclosed, the barrier including a plurality of casing strings wherein at least one casing string of the plurality of casing strings may be affixed to at least another adjacent casing string of the plurality of casing strings through at least one weld, at least one adhesive joint, or both. A method and system for nondestructively inspecting a subterranean barrier is disclosed. For instance, a radiographic signal may be emitted from within a casing string toward an adjacent casing string and the radiographic signal may be detected from within the adjacent casing string. A method of repairing a barrier including removing at least a portion of a casing string and welding a repair element within the casing string is disclosed. A method of selectively heating at least one casing string forming at least a portion of a subterranean barrier is disclosed.

  16. Alternative Fuels Data Center: CNG Vehicle Fueling Animation Text Version

    Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center

    Natural Gas Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Alternative Fuels Data Center: CNG Vehicle Fueling Animation Text Version to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: CNG Vehicle Fueling Animation Text Version on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: CNG Vehicle Fueling Animation Text Version on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: CNG Vehicle Fueling Animation Text Version on Google Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: CNG Vehicle

  17. EECLP Webinar #6: Solar Program Overview-- Text Version

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Below is the text version of the EECLP Webinar 6: Solar Program Overview, presented in January 2015.

  18. Text-Alternative Version: Smithsonian GATEWAY Demonstration Video

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Following is a text version of a video about the GATEWAY demonstration project at the Smithsonian American Art Museum.

  19. EECBG Strategies and Considerations Approaching Lenders Webcast (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Below is a text version of the December 3, 2009 What Drives Consumer Borrowing for Energy Efficiency?

  20. Building America: Score with Indoor Air Quality Webinar (Text Version)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Here you find the text version of the webinar, Building America: Score with Indoor Air Quality, presented in October 2016.

  1. EECLP Webinar #1: Overview and Cost Effectiveness-- Text Version

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Below is the text version of the webinar, EECLP Webinar 1: Overview and Cost Effectiveness, presented in December 2014.

  2. National Residential Efficiency Measures Database Unveiled (text version) |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy National Residential Efficiency Measures Database Unveiled (text version) National Residential Efficiency Measures Database Unveiled (text version) Below is the text version of the Webinar titled "National Residential Efficiency Measures Database Unveiled," originally presented on January 18, 2011. In addition to this text version of the audio, you can view the presentation slides and a recording of the Webinar (WMV 47 MB). Operator: Welcome to today's webinar.

  3. Strengthening the Workforce in Better Buildings Neighborhoods (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Below is a text version of the Better Buildings Neighborhood Program "Strengthening the Workforce in Better Buildings Neighborhoods" video.

  4. Structuring Credit Enhancements for Clean Energy Finance Programs (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Below is a text version of the January 15, 2010 Structuring Loan Loss Reserve Funds for Clean Energy Finance Programs.

  5. DOE Challenge Home Comprehensive Building Science Webinar (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Below is the text version of the webinar, DOE Zero Energy Ready Home - Comprehensive Building Science, presented in March 2014.

  6. Assessing Energy Resources Webinar Text Version | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Text Version Assessing Energy Resources Webinar Text Version Download the text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on assessing energy resources. DOE Office of Indian Energy Foundational Course on Renewable Energy Technologies: Assessing Energy Resources Text Version (162.06 KB) More Documents & Publications TAP Webcast Transcript July-29, 2009 webinar_innovation_permitting_inspections.doc Community Energy Strategic Planning Resources

  7. Hydroelectric Webinar Presentation Slides and Text Version | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Hydroelectric Webinar Presentation Slides and Text Version Hydroelectric Webinar Presentation Slides and Text Version Download presentation slides and a text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on hydroelectric renewable energy. DOE-IE_Foundational_Hydroelectric_PresentationSlides.pdf (4.03 MB) DOE-IE_Foundational_Hydroelectric_TextVersion.pdf (149.28 KB) More Documents & Publications EA-1933: Final Environmental Assessment CX-003191: Categorical

  8. Geothermal Webinar Presentation Slides and Text Version | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Geothermal Webinar Presentation Slides and Text Version Geothermal Webinar Presentation Slides and Text Version Download presentation slides and a text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on geothermal renewable energy. DOE-IE_Foundational_Geothermal_PresentationSlides.pdf (5.69 MB) DOE-IE_Foundational_Geothermal_TextVersion.pdf (144.65 KB) More Documents & Publications Overview of Geothermal Energy Development Webcast Geothermal Energy: A Geothermal

  9. Rotor assembly including superconducting magnetic coil

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Snitchler, Gregory L.; Gamble, Bruce B.; Voccio, John P.

    2003-01-01

    Superconducting coils and methods of manufacture include a superconductor tape wound concentrically about and disposed along an axis of the coil to define an opening having a dimension which gradually decreases, in the direction along the axis, from a first end to a second end of the coil. Each turn of the superconductor tape has a broad surface maintained substantially parallel to the axis of the coil.

  10. Nuclear reactor shield including magnesium oxide

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Rouse, Carl A.; Simnad, Massoud T.

    1981-01-01

    An improvement in nuclear reactor shielding of a type used in reactor applications involving significant amounts of fast neutron flux, the reactor shielding including means providing structural support, neutron moderator material, neutron absorber material and other components as described below, wherein at least a portion of the neutron moderator material is magnesium in the form of magnesium oxide either alone or in combination with other moderator materials such as graphite and iron.

  11. Electric power monthly, September 1990. [Glossary included

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1990-12-17

    The purpose of this report is to provide energy decision makers with accurate and timely information that may be used in forming various perspectives on electric issues. The power plants considered include coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear power plants. Data are presented for power generation, fuel consumption, fuel receipts and cost, sales of electricity, and unusual occurrences at power plants. Data are compared at the national, Census division, and state levels. 4 figs., 52 tabs. (CK)

  12. Power generation method including membrane separation

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lokhandwala, Kaaeid A.

    2000-01-01

    A method for generating electric power, such as at, or close to, natural gas fields. The method includes conditioning natural gas containing C.sub.3+ hydrocarbons and/or acid gas by means of a membrane separation step. This step creates a leaner, sweeter, drier gas, which is then used as combustion fuel to run a turbine, which is in turn used for power generation.

  13. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  14. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  15. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  16. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  17. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  18. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  19. Residential applliance data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hwang, R.J,; Johnson, F.X.; Brown, R.E.; Hanford, J.W.; Kommey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies or programs aimed at improving the efficiency of electricity and natural gas consumption. This report is primarily methodological in nature, taking the reader through the entire process of developing the baseline for residential appliance end-uses. Analysis steps documented in this report include: gathering technology and market data for each appliance end-use and specific technologies within those end-uses, developing cost data for the various technologies, and specifying decision models to forecast future purchase decisions by households. Our implementation of the REEPS 2.1 modeling framework draws on the extensive technology, cost and market data assembled by LBL for the purpose of analyzing federal energy conservation standards. The resulting residential appliance forecasting model offers a flexible and accurate tool for analyzing the effect of policies at the national level.

  20. How Do Distributed Wind Energy Systems Work? (Text Version) | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Do Distributed Wind Energy Systems Work? (Text Version) How Do Distributed Wind Energy Systems Work? (Text Version) Below is the text version for the How Do Distributed Wind Energy Systems Work? animation. The animation shows a city powered by wind power. It includes a utility-scale wind farm, connected by transmission lines to a city with homes, farms, and a school. The animation explains how wind can be used at all of these interconnected locations. Distributed Wind Distributed wind

  1. Thermovoltaic semiconductor device including a plasma filter

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Baldasaro, Paul F.

    1999-01-01

    A thermovoltaic energy conversion device and related method for converting thermal energy into an electrical potential. An interference filter is provided on a semiconductor thermovoltaic cell to pre-filter black body radiation. The semiconductor thermovoltaic cell includes a P/N junction supported on a substrate which converts incident thermal energy below the semiconductor junction band gap into electrical potential. The semiconductor substrate is doped to provide a plasma filter which reflects back energy having a wavelength which is above the band gap and which is ineffectively filtered by the interference filter, through the P/N junction to the source of radiation thereby avoiding parasitic absorption of the unusable portion of the thermal radiation energy.

  2. Optical panel system including stackable waveguides

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    DeSanto, Leonard; Veligdan, James T.

    2007-03-06

    An optical panel system including stackable waveguides is provided. The optical panel system displays a projected light image and comprises a plurality of planar optical waveguides in a stacked state. The optical panel system further comprises a support system that aligns and supports the waveguides in the stacked state. In one embodiment, the support system comprises at least one rod, wherein each waveguide contains at least one hole, and wherein each rod is positioned through a corresponding hole in each waveguide. In another embodiment, the support system comprises at least two opposing edge structures having the waveguides positioned therebetween, wherein each opposing edge structure contains a mating surface, wherein opposite edges of each waveguide contain mating surfaces which are complementary to the mating surfaces of the opposing edge structures, and wherein each mating surface of the opposing edge structures engages a corresponding complementary mating surface of the opposite edges of each waveguide.

  3. Optical panel system including stackable waveguides

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    DeSanto, Leonard; Veligdan, James T.

    2007-11-20

    An optical panel system including stackable waveguides is provided. The optical panel system displays a projected light image and comprises a plurality of planar optical waveguides in a stacked state. The optical panel system further comprises a support system that aligns and supports the waveguides in the stacked state. In one embodiment, the support system comprises at least one rod, wherein each waveguide contains at least one hole, and wherein each rod is positioned through a corresponding hole in each waveguide. In another embodiment, the support system comprises at least two opposing edge structures having the waveguides positioned therebetween, wherein each opposing edge structure contains a mating surface, wherein opposite edges of each waveguide contain mating surfaces which are complementary to the mating surfaces of the opposing edge structures, and wherein each mating surface of the opposing edge structures engages a corresponding complementary mating surface of the opposite edges of each waveguide.

  4. Drapery assembly including insulated drapery liner

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Cukierski, Gwendolyn (Ithaca, NY)

    1983-01-01

    A drapery assembly is disclosed for covering a framed wall opening, the assembly including drapery panels hung on a horizontal traverse rod, the rod having a pair of master slides and means for displacing the master slides between open and closed positions. A pair of insulating liner panels are positioned behind the drapery, the remote side edges of the liner panels being connected with the side portions of the opening frame, and the adjacent side edges of the liner panels being connected with a pair of vertically arranged center support members adapted for sliding movement longitudinally of a horizontal track member secured to the upper horizontal portion of the opening frame. Pivotally arranged brackets connect the center support members with the master slides of the traverse rod whereby movement of the master slides to effect opening and closing of the drapery panels effects simultaneous opening and closing of the liner panels.

  5. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  6. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  7. Selling Zero Energy Ready Homes Made Easy Webinar (Text Version) |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Selling Zero Energy Ready Homes Made Easy Webinar (Text Version) Selling Zero Energy Ready Homes Made Easy Webinar (Text Version) Below is the text version of the webinar Selling Zero Energy Ready Homes Made Easy, presented in October 2015. Watch the presentation. Lindsay Parker: Presentation cover slide: Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Department of Energy Zero Energy Ready Home technical training webinar series. We're really excited that you can join us here today for a

  8. DOE Zero Energy Ready Home Webinar: Lighting Efficiency (Text Version) |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Zero Energy Ready Home Webinar: Lighting Efficiency (Text Version) DOE Zero Energy Ready Home Webinar: Lighting Efficiency (Text Version) Below is the text version of the webinar, DOE Zero Energy Ready Home: Lighting Efficiency, presented in May 2015. Watch the presentation. Alex Krowka: Presentation cover slide: ... join us today for this session on LED lighting design for Zero Energy Ready Homes, to be presented by Brooke Silber of Jan & Brooke Luminae and David

  9. ZERH Webinar: Tour of Zero and Innovation Partner (Text Version) |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Tour of Zero and Innovation Partner (Text Version) ZERH Webinar: Tour of Zero and Innovation Partner (Text Version) Here is the text version of the webinar Tour of Zero and Innovation Partner, presented in October 2016. Watch the presentation. Ally Waranowski: First presentation slide: Hi, everyone. First, happy Halloween! Second, welcome to the DOE Zero Energy Ready Home's Innovation Partnerships webinar. We're really excited that you can join us today for this update

  10. Cost Principles Webinar for DOE Grant Recipients - Text Version |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Cost Principles Webinar for DOE Grant Recipients - Text Version Cost Principles Webinar for DOE Grant Recipients - Text Version Following is a text transcript of the April 2011 Cost Principles Webinar for DOE Grant Recipients. Title Slide: Cost Principles Webinar for DOE Grant Recipients U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Golden Field Office April 2011 Narration: The following webinar can be used as a reference tool for recipients

  11. Technology Innovation at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Text

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Version) | NREL Technology Innovation at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (Text Version) This is the text version for the Technology Innovation at NREL video. [intro music] The video opens with a blue background and the white NREL logo centered on the screen. The video switches to a blue screen with the title of the video, "Technology Innovation at that National Renewable Energy Laboratory" in white text centered on the screen. Kristin Gray (Director, NREL Technology

  12. Project Profile: Helios: Understanding Solar Evolution through Text

    Energy Savers

    Analytics | Department of Energy Helios: Understanding Solar Evolution through Text Analytics Project Profile: Helios: Understanding Solar Evolution through Text Analytics Logo of SRI International. SRI International, under the Solar Energy Evolution and Diffusion Studies (SEEDS) program, is developing a new system for large-scale text analytics, called Helios, to isolate and map recurring patterns of technology evolution through the inspection of thousands of published technical documents.

  13. BENEFIT 2016 Funding Opportunity - Full Applications Webinar (Text Version)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    | Department of Energy 2016 Funding Opportunity - Full Applications Webinar (Text Version) BENEFIT 2016 Funding Opportunity - Full Applications Webinar (Text Version) Here is the text version of the webinar BENEFIT 2016 Funding Opportunity - Full Applications, presented in March 2016. Watch the presentation. Karma Sawyer: Presentation cover slide: Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our webinar. Thank-you for your interest in the U.S. Department of Energy's efforts on renewable energy and

  14. BENEFIT Funding Opportunity 2016 Webinar #1 (Text Version) | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Funding Opportunity 2016 Webinar #1 (Text Version) BENEFIT Funding Opportunity 2016 Webinar #1 (Text Version) Below is the text version of the BENEFIT Funding Opportunity 2016 Webinar #1, presented in December 2015. Watch the presentation. Karma Sawyer: Presentation cover slide: We are here today for a webinar regarding the 2016 BENEFIT FOA. "BENEFIT" stands for Buildings Energy Efficiency Frontiers and Innovation Technologies. The BENEFIT FOA was released by the Emerging

  15. Small Business Program (Text Version) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Small Business Program (Text Version) Small Business Program (Text Version) This is the text version for the images on the EERE Small Business Program page. North American Industry Classification System This pie chart shows the top ten North American Industry Classification System codes used by businesses working with the Department of Energy in September 2015. They are 541611: Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Services: $35,932,769; 541330: Engineering Services:

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  17. Text-Alternative Version: Using the Street and Parking Facility...

    Energy Savers

    Using the Street and Parking Facility Lighting Retrofit Financial Analysis Tool Text-Alternative Version: Using the Street and Parking Facility Lighting Retrofit Financial Analysis ...

  18. Fuel Cell Animation- Fuel Cell Stack (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This text version of the fuel cell animation demonstrates how a fuel cell uses hydrogen to produce electricity, with only water and heat as byproducts.

  19. Fuel Cell Animation- Fuel Cell Components (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This text version of the fuel cell animation demonstrates how a fuel cell uses hydrogen to produce electricity, with only water and heat as byproducts.

  20. DOE Zero Energy Home Webinar: Comprehensive Building Science (Text Version)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Below is the text version of the webinar, DOE Zero Energy Ready Home - Comprehensive Building Science, presented in March 2014. Watch the presentation.

  1. BENEFIT 2015 Funding Opportunity Announcement Webinar 1 (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Below is the text version of the webinar, BENEFIT 2015 Funding Opportunity Announcement, presented in October 2014 by Antonio Bouza, technology manager, and Pat Phelan, program manager, Building...

  2. Electricity Grid Basics Webinar Presentation Slides and Text Version

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Download presentation slides and a text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on electricity grid basics.

  3. Text-Alternative Version: Philadelphia Market Introduction Workshop Video

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Following is a text version of Jim Brodrick's opening presentation video from the July 2010 DOE SSL Market Introduction Workshop in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

  4. Department of Energy Critical Materials Strategy Video (Text Version)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This is a text version of the "Department of Energy Critical Materials Strategy" video presented at the Critical Materials Workshop, held on April 3, 2012 in Arlington, Virginia.

  5. National Academies Criticality Methodology and Assessment Video (Text Version)

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    This is a text version of the "National Academies Criticality Methodology and Assessment" video presented at the Critical Materials Workshop, held on April 3, 2012 in Arlington, Virginia.

  6. Text-Alternative Version: Seattle Market Introduction Workshop Video

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Following is a text version of Jim Brodrick's welcome presentation video from the July 2011 DOE SSL Market Introduction Workshop in Seattle, Washington.

  7. Microsoft PowerPoint - TextAnalysis_w_Hadoop

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Scientific Computing Hadoop-based document management architecture nt Source HBase Ingest Pub M d RSS Email cumen Source Text Metadata Process Med Do Metadata Annotations Katta...

  8. Text-Alternative Version: Raleigh R&D Workshop Video

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Following is a text version of Jim Brodrick's opening presentation video from the February 2010 DOE SSL R&D Workshop in Raleigh, North Carolina.

  9. Critical Materials Research in DOE Video (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is a text version of the "Critical Materials Research in DOE" video presented at the Critical Materials Workshop, held on April 3, 2012 in Arlington, Virginia.

  10. Biomass 2013: Register Now (Text Version) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Register Now (Text Version) Biomass 2013: Register Now (Text Version) Below is the text version for the Biomass 2013: Register Now video. The Video opens with "U.S. Department of Energy Biomass 2013." The Biomass 2013 graphic is shown onscreen. Music with an opening video montage plays. A video of Chris Coons speaking at Biomass 2012 begins. The next phase of biofuels is ready to leap from the lab bench to the marketplace... Video shows pictures of Biomass 2012 conference. Text shows

  11. Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Central...

    Energy Savers

    Central Multifamily Water Heating Systems Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Central Multifamily Water Heating Systems Central Multifamily Water Heating Systems ...

  12. Articles including thin film monolayers and multilayers

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Li, DeQuan; Swanson, Basil I.

    1995-01-01

    Articles of manufacture including: (a) a base substrate having an oxide surface layer, and a multidentate ligand, capable of binding a metal ion, attached to the oxide surface layer of the base substrate, (b) a base substrate having an oxide surface layer, a multidentate ligand, capable of binding a metal ion, attached to the oxide surface layer of the base substrate, and a metal species attached to the multidentate ligand, (c) a base substrate having an oxide surface layer, a multidentate ligand, capable of binding a metal ion, attached to the oxide surface layer of the base substrate, a metal species attached to the multidentate ligand, and a multifunctional organic ligand attached to the metal species, and (d) a base substrate having an oxide surface layer, a multidentate ligand, capable of binding a metal ion, attached to the oxide surface layer of the base substrate, a metal species attached to the multidentate ligand, a multifunctional organic ligand attached to the metal species, and a second metal species attached to the multifunctional organic ligand, are provided, such articles useful in detecting the presence of a selected target species, as nonliear optical materials, or as scavengers for selected target species.

  13. Engine lubrication circuit including two pumps

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Lane, William H.

    2006-10-03

    A lubrication pump coupled to the engine is sized such that the it can supply the engine with a predetermined flow volume as soon as the engine reaches a peak torque engine speed. In engines that operate predominately at speeds above the peak torque engine speed, the lubrication pump is often producing lubrication fluid in excess of the predetermined flow volume that is bypassed back to a lubrication fluid source. This arguably results in wasted power. In order to more efficiently lubricate an engine, a lubrication circuit includes a lubrication pump and a variable delivery pump. The lubrication pump is operably coupled to the engine, and the variable delivery pump is in communication with a pump output controller that is operable to vary a lubrication fluid output from the variable delivery pump as a function of at least one of engine speed and lubrication flow volume or system pressure. Thus, the lubrication pump can be sized to produce the predetermined flow volume at a speed range at which the engine predominately operates while the variable delivery pump can supplement lubrication fluid delivery from the lubrication pump at engine speeds below the predominant engine speed range.

  14. Dynamic stall simulation including turbulence modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Allet, A.; Halle, S.; Paraschivoiu, I.

    1995-09-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the two-dimensional unsteady flow around an airfoil undergoing a Darrieus motion in dynamic stall conditions. For this purpose, a numerical solver based on the solution of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations expressed in a streamfunction-vorticity formulation in a non-inertial frame of reference was developed. The governing equations are solved by the streamline upwind Petrov-Galerkin finite element method (FEM). Temporal discretization is achieved by second-order-accurate finite differences. The resulting global matrix system is linearized by the Newton method and solved by the generalized minimum residual method (GMRES) with an incomplete triangular factorization preconditioning (ILU). Turbulence effects are introduced in the solver by an eddy viscosity model. The investigation centers on an evaluation of the possibilities of several turbulence models, including the algebraic Cebeci-Smith model (CSM) and the nonequilibrium Johnson-King model (JKM). In an effort to predict dynamic stall features on rotating airfoils, first the authors present some testing results concerning the performance of both turbulence models for the flat plate case. Then, computed flow structure together with aerodynamic coefficients for a NACA 0015 airfoil in Darrieus motion under stall conditions are presented.

  15. Sandia Text ANaLysis Extensible librarY Server

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (OSTI)

    2006-05-11

    This is a server wrapper for STANLEY (Sandia Text ANaLysis Extensible librarY). STANLEY provides capabilities for analyzing, indexing and searching through text. STANLEY Server exposes this capability through a TCP/IP interface allowing third party applications and remote clients to access it.

  16. Portable RSA encryption-decryption subprogram for protecting proprietary text

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanson, R.J.

    1981-09-01

    A virtually portable (FORTRAN) version of the RSA (Rivest, Shamir, Adleman) algorithm for encryption and decryption of proprietary text has been written. This system uses three previously developed software packages. These are an extended precision integer arithmetic package, an error processing package, and machine-sensitive input/output subprograms from the Text Exchange System.

  17. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  18. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  19. Home Energy Score Update (text version) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Update (text version) Home Energy Score Update (text version) Below is a text version of the webinar titled "Home Energy Score Update," originally presented on November 17, 2010. Watch the webinar. Joan Glickman: We'll get through as many as we can in the next half an hour. Next slide: So as many of you probably know, this all started through the Recovery Through Retrofit effort which was initiated by the Middle Class Task Force out of the Office of the Vice President. That task force

  20. Quality Management Systems for Zero Energy Ready Home Webinar (Text

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Version) | Department of Energy Quality Management Systems for Zero Energy Ready Home Webinar (Text Version) Quality Management Systems for Zero Energy Ready Home Webinar (Text Version) Below is the text version of the webinar, Quality Management Systems for Zero Energy Ready Home, presented in October 2014. Watch the presentation. GoToWebinar voice: The broadcast is now starting. All attendees are in listen-only mode. Lindsay Parker: Hi, everyone. We're really glad that you can make it here

  1. Tribal Energy Project Development Through ESCOs (Text Version) | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Energy Tribal Energy Project Development Through ESCOs (Text Version) Tribal Energy Project Development Through ESCOs (Text Version) Below is a text version of the April 1, 2010 Financing Program Support for ARRA Recipients Announcer: Roger Taylor Good afternoon, or morning to everybody, depending on which time zone you are in. My name is Roger Taylor, I'm the manager of the Tribal Energy Program at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and we thank you for joining our webinar today on

  2. The Better Buildings Neighborhood Program for a Better Future (Text

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Version) | Department of Energy The Better Buildings Neighborhood Program for a Better Future (Text Version) The Better Buildings Neighborhood Program for a Better Future (Text Version) Below is a text version of "The Better Buildings Neighborhood Program for a Better Future" video. [FAST-PACED MUSIC] "We are creating change in our community." "We are creating jobs." "We're making our homes more energy efficient." "We're using less energy."

  3. Understanding LED Color-Tunable Products Text-alternative Version |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Understanding LED Color-Tunable Products Text-alternative Version Understanding LED Color-Tunable Products Text-alternative Version This is the text-alternative version of Understanding LED Color-Tunable Products. Color-tunable luminaires are different from normal luminaires in that instead of being one constant color they can change in color. We have three basic flavors on the market. One is called dim-to-warm, which starts out at a normal whitish color-- like a 3000k

  4. U.S. oil production forecast revised up for 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    oil production forecast revised up for 2016 and 2017 U.S. crude oil production is expected to be higher this year and in 2017 than previously forecast, because of a slower decline in onshore production. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration revised up its estimate for domestic oil production by about 110,000 barrels per day for 2016 and by 150,000 barrels per day next year. EIA said increased drilling activity in the Permian Basin area located in West Texas and

  5. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  6. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for those issued less

  7. BENEFIT 2015 Funding Opportunity Announcement Webinar 2 (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Below is the text version of the webinar, BENEFIT 2015 Funding Opportunity Announcement 2, presented in October 2014 by Antonio Bouza and Jim Payne of the Building Technologies Office.

  8. Text-Alternative Version: Solid-State Lighting Early Lessons...

    Energy Savers

    Solid-State Lighting Early Lessons Learned Webinar Text-Alternative Version: Solid-State Lighting Early Lessons Learned Webinar Linda Sandahl: Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I'm ...

  9. Fuel Cell Animation (Text Version) | Department of Energy

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    This text version of the fuel cell animation demonstrates how a fuel cell uses hydrogen to produce electricity, with only water and heat as byproducts. Fuel cell shown with its ...

  10. 2014 Refresh Automated Frontpage Slideshow Footer Text | OSTI...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Revision ID Field name Date Old state New state name By Comment Operations 16,562 Tue, 2016-05-10 15:15 Draft Published Justin Roby Publishing frontpage slideshow footer text ...

  11. U.S.-Israel Energy Agreement Amendment Text_04042016 | Department...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    U.S.-Israel Energy Agreement Amendment Text04042016.pdf (14.16 KB) More Documents & Publications ScannedAgreement.pdf MOEDoftheItalianRepublic.PDF InternationalAgreementsJa...

  12. Electricity Grid Basics Webinar Presentation Slides and Text...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Download presentation slides and a text version of the audio from the DOE Office of Indian Energy webinar on electricity grid basics. DOE-IE FoundationalElectricityGridBasicsP...

  13. Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Put New...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Put New Tools and Content on the Building America Solution Center Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Put New Tools and Content on the Building America Solution ...

  14. Zero Energy Ready Home Orientation Webinar (Text Version) | Department...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    Here is the text version of the DOE Zero Energy Ready Home Orientation Webinar, presented in July 2016. Watch the presentation. Alex Krowka: Welcome to DOE Zero Energy Ready Home ...

  15. EV Everywhere: Text Version of Share Your EV Story Video

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is a text version of the Share Your EV Story video, which features interviews with drivers of electric vehicles who work at the Department of Energy and its national laboratories sharing their experiences.

  16. NREL: Transportation Research - E-Roadway Animation (Text Version)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    E-Roadway Animation (Text Version) This text version of the e-roadway animation describes how electrified roadways can reduce petroleum consumption and vehicle operating costs while extending the range of electric vehicles. Part One: E-Roadway Introduction and Benefits Reducing emissions and oil consumption are crucial worldwide goals. Many technologies can contribute to achieving these goals-efficient homes, biofuels, hybrid electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells, electric vehicles, and solar

  17. Dr. Dan Arvizu Keynote Presentation Text Version | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Dr. Dan Arvizu Keynote Presentation Text Version This page contains the text version of the NREL Industry Growth Forum video. Clean energy is indeed ready for launch. [clapping and music] We are here at the NREL Industry Growth Forum. It brings together stakeholders, investors, cleantech start-ups, all looking to network, get to know one another, find avenues for generating revenue, find avenues for generating new investments. A lot of deals get made, a lot of new networks, new partnerships get

  18. Connected Outdoor Lighting Systems for Municipalities - Text-Alt Version |

    Energy Savers

    Department of Energy Outdoor Lighting Systems for Municipalities - Text-Alt Version Connected Outdoor Lighting Systems for Municipalities - Text-Alt Version Welcome, everyone. This is Bruce Kinzey with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and director of the U.S. Department of Energy's Municipal Solid-State Street Lighting Consortium. Welcome to today's webinar, Connected Outdoor Lighting Systems for Municipalities, brought you by the DOE Better Buildings Challenge. This webinar was

  19. What Is Energy Systems Integration? (Text Version) | Energy Systems

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Integration | NREL What Is Energy Systems Integration? (Text Version) This is a text version of the video "What Is Energy Systems Integration?" Ben Kroposki: Energy systems integration is taking a holistic look at energy systems and how they connect together. Blake Lundstrom: It's a commitment to looking at the big picture of our energy system. Bryan Hannegan: There's so much development going on with renewable supplies of electricity, with emerging consumer devices, the so-called

  20. Text-Alternative Version: DOE Five Year Commercialization Support Plan |

    Energy Savers

    Department of Energy DOE Five Year Commercialization Support Plan Text-Alternative Version: DOE Five Year Commercialization Support Plan Below is the text-alternative version of the DOE Five Year Commercialization Support Plan webcast. Speaker: I'm going to give you an overview of the Department of Energy's five year solid-state lighting commercialization support plan. This plan addresses a range of activities that the Department of Energy has planned for helping to commercialize solid-state

  1. Text-Alternative Version: Evaluating LED Street Lighting Solutions |

    Energy Savers

    Department of Energy Evaluating LED Street Lighting Solutions Text-Alternative Version: Evaluating LED Street Lighting Solutions Below is the text-alternative version of the Evaluating LED Street Lighting Solutions webcast, held July 20, 2010. Edward Smalley: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Market Introduction Workshop, and the pre-conference webcast, Evaluating LED Street Lighting Solutions. This morning we have three panelists with us. Todd Rosenbaum from the city of Portland, with

  2. Text-Alternative Version: LED Replacement Lamps: Current Performance and

    Energy Savers

    the Latest on ENERGY STAR® | Department of Energy Replacement Lamps: Current Performance and the Latest on ENERGY STAR® Text-Alternative Version: LED Replacement Lamps: Current Performance and the Latest on ENERGY STAR® Below is the text-alternative version of the LED Replacement Lamps: Current Performance and the Latest on ENERGY STAR® webcast. Terry Shoemaker: Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Terry Shoemaker with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and I'd like to welcome you

  3. Text-Alternative Version: LED Replacements for Linear Fluorescent Lamps |

    Energy Savers

    Department of Energy Replacements for Linear Fluorescent Lamps Text-Alternative Version: LED Replacements for Linear Fluorescent Lamps Below is the text-alternative version of the "LED Replacements for Linear Fluorescent Lamps" webcast, held June 20, 2011. Theresa Shoemaker: Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Terry Shoemaker with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and I'd like to welcome you to today's webcast, "LED Replacements for Linear Fluorescent Lamps,"

  4. Text-Alternative Version: Model Specification for LED Roadway Luminaires

    Energy Savers

    Webcast | Department of Energy Model Specification for LED Roadway Luminaires Webcast Text-Alternative Version: Model Specification for LED Roadway Luminaires Webcast Below is the text-alternative version of the "Model Specification for LED Roadway Luminaires" webcast, held November 15, 2011. Theresa Shoemaker: Welcome, ladies and gentleman. I'm Terry Shoemaker with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and I'd like to welcome you to today's webcast: Model Specification for

  5. Text-Alternative Version: Pedestrian-Friendly Nighttime Lighting Webinar |

    Energy Savers

    Department of Energy Pedestrian-Friendly Nighttime Lighting Webinar Text-Alternative Version: Pedestrian-Friendly Nighttime Lighting Webinar Below is the text-alternative version of the "Pedestrian-Friendly Nighttime Lighting" webcast, held November 19, 2013. Linda Sandahl: Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Linda Sandahl with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and I'd like to welcome you to today's webinar, "Pedestrian-Friendly Nighttime Lighting," brought to you by

  6. Text-Alternative Version: Successful Selection of LED Streetlight

    Energy Savers

    Luminaires Webcast | Department of Energy Successful Selection of LED Streetlight Luminaires Webcast Text-Alternative Version: Successful Selection of LED Streetlight Luminaires Webcast Below is the text-alternative version of the "Successful Selection of LED Streetlight Luminaires" webcast, held March 6, 2013. Edward Smalley: Hello and welcome ladies and gentlemen. I'm Edward Smalley with Seattle City Light, Seattle's publically owned utility. As director of the Municipal

  7. Text-Alternative Version: Understanding and Evaluating LM-79 Reports |

    Energy Savers

    Department of Energy LM-79 Reports Text-Alternative Version: Understanding and Evaluating LM-79 Reports Below is the text-alternative version of Day 1 of the three-part TINSSL Webinar Series "Understanding and Evaluating LM-79 & LM-80 Reports for SSL Technology," held August 10, 2010. Sarah Eckstein: Today's webinar will focus on understanding and evaluating LM-79 reports. Tomorrow's webinar will focus on understanding and evaluating in situ temperature and measurement points

  8. Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicle Safety Systems Animation (Text Version) |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicle Safety Systems Animation (Text Version) Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicle Safety Systems Animation (Text Version) Hydrogen fueled vehicles have multiple safety systems that detect and prevent the accidental release of hydrogen. There are sensors that detect leaks, a computer that monitors fuel flow, and an excess flow shut-off valve. Hydrogen tanks also have a pressure release device, much like those on natural gas water heaters in our homes. If a leak is

  9. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  10. A METHODOLOGY FOR INTEGRATING IMAGES AND TEXT FOR OBJECT IDENTIFICATION

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Paulson, Patrick R.; Hohimer, Ryan E.; Doucette, Peter J.; Harvey, William J.; Seedahmed, Gamal H.; Petrie, Gregg M.; Martucci, Louis M.

    2006-02-13

    Often text and imagery contain information that must be combined to solve a problem. One approach begins with transforming the raw text and imagery into a common structure that contains the critical information in a usable form. This paper presents an application in which the imagery of vehicles and the text from police reports were combined to demonstrate the power of data fusion to correctly identify the target vehicle--e.g., a red 2002 Ford truck identified in a police report--from a collection of diverse vehicle images. The imagery was abstracted into a common signature by first capturing the conceptual models of the imagery experts in software. Our system then (1) extracted fundamental features (e.g., wheel base, color), (2) made inferences about the information (e.g., it’s a red Ford) and then (3) translated the raw information into an abstract knowledge signature that was designed to both capture the important features and account for uncertainty. Likewise, the conceptual models of text analysis experts were instantiated into software that was used to generate an abstract knowledge signature that could be readily compared to the imagery knowledge signature. While this experiment primary focus was to demonstrate the power of text and imagery fusion for a specific example it also suggested several ways that text and geo-registered imagery could be combined to help solve other types of problems.

  11. Ionic liquids, electrolyte solutions including the ionic liquids, and energy storage devices including the ionic liquids

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Gering, Kevin L.; Harrup, Mason K.; Rollins, Harry W.

    2015-12-08

    An ionic liquid including a phosphazene compound that has a plurality of phosphorus-nitrogen units and at least one pendant group bonded to each phosphorus atom of the plurality of phosphorus-nitrogen units. One pendant group of the at least one pendant group comprises a positively charged pendant group. Additional embodiments of ionic liquids are disclosed, as are electrolyte solutions and energy storage devices including the embodiments of the ionic liquid.

  12. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  13. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  14. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  15. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  16. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  17. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  18. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  19. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  20. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  1. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-09-19

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the “Microbase” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  2. Information Gain Based Dimensionality Selection for Classifying Text Documents

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Dumidu Wijayasekara; Milos Manic; Miles McQueen

    2013-06-01

    Selecting the optimal dimensions for various knowledge extraction applications is an essential component of data mining. Dimensionality selection techniques are utilized in classification applications to increase the classification accuracy and reduce the computational complexity. In text classification, where the dimensionality of the dataset is extremely high, dimensionality selection is even more important. This paper presents a novel, genetic algorithm based methodology, for dimensionality selection in text mining applications that utilizes information gain. The presented methodology uses information gain of each dimension to change the mutation probability of chromosomes dynamically. Since the information gain is calculated a priori, the computational complexity is not affected. The presented method was tested on a specific text classification problem and compared with conventional genetic algorithm based dimensionality selection. The results show an improvement of 3% in the true positives and 1.6% in the true negatives over conventional dimensionality selection methods.

  3. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  4. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  5. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  6. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  7. City of Atlanta Video (Text Version) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    City of Atlanta Video (Text Version) City of Atlanta Video (Text Version) Aaron Bastian: According to the U.S. EPA, Atlanta is one of the top ten cities in the country for green buildings. It is a city that is walk and bike friendly, and now Atlanta is second in the country for the sale of electric vehicles. Atlanta has seen tremendous adoption of plug-in electric vehicles amongst her residents, but to truly meet driver demand, chargers must be both accessible and available at major destinations

  8. Using adversary text to detect adversary phase changes.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2009-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to help develop a research roadmap and small proof ofconcept for addressing key problems and gaps from the perspective of using text analysis methods as a primary tool for detecting when a group is undergoing a phase change. Self- rganizing map (SOM) techniques were used to analyze text data obtained from the tworld-wide web. Statistical studies indicate that it may be possible to predict phase changes, as well as detect whether or not an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  9. NREL Employee's Perspective Video - Text Version | Careers | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    NREL Employee's Perspective Video - Text Version Below is the text version for the NREL Employee's Perspective Video. Hi, my name is Nicholas Long, I'm a researcher here at the National Renewable Energy Lab. I work in the commercial buildings group in the analysis, tools and control section, and I work on making buildings more energy efficient. What keeps me here at NREL are the people. They're wicked smart, they're passionate about the mission, as well, they are caring, they're loving, and to

  10. Sustainability in Bioenergy: A Nation Connected Text Version | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Energy Sustainability in Bioenergy: A Nation Connected Text Version Sustainability in Bioenergy: A Nation Connected Text Version 0:02-0:07 Narrator: Sustainability - never has a word had so many meanings, to so many different people. 0:08-0:13 Narrator: Bioenergy - never has a word connected so many people, across an entire nation. 0:15-0:23 Narrator: It's not just what these two words together can produce, but what these two words combined, can help us to save. Let us show you how.

  11. Center for Inverse Design: EFRC Researchers in Focus (Text Version)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    EFRC Researchers in Focus Tom Mason (Text Version) This is the text version for the EFRC Researchers in Focus: Tom Mason video. One of the reasons as an experimentalist that I'm so excited about being involved with the Center for Inverse Design-as are the students and postdocs-is the opportunity to reverse the paradigm. In conventional materials science, we stumble on to new materials, and then we have the theorists tell us what the band structure is, and we've already developed the properties.

  12. Text-Alternative Version: LEDs for Interior Office Applications |

    Energy Savers

    Department of Energy LEDs for Interior Office Applications Text-Alternative Version: LEDs for Interior Office Applications Below is the text-alternative version of the LEDs for Interior Office Applications webcast, held March 18, 2010. Terry Shoemaker: Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Terry Shoemaker with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and I'd like to welcome to you to today's webcast, "LEDs for Interior Office Applications." This is brought to you by the U.S.

  13. Inclusion in the Workplace - Text Version | Careers | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Inclusion in the Workplace - Text Version This is the text version for the Inclusion in the Workplace video. Manajit Sengupta: I work at NREL because of primarily the challenges, the excitement of the work, and the people I work with. Suzy Belmont: When people feel safe and they feel accepted, they're able to bring the best parts of themselves forward, and they're able to bring exciting new ideas forward because they feel like they can fail, they feel like they can try out new things. Bobi

  14. Inclusion: Leading by Example - Text Version | Careers | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Inclusion: Leading by Example - Text Version This is the text version for the Inclusion: Leading by Example video. I'm Martin Keller. I'm the NREL Director. To create a more inclusive workplace, you need to start on the top. In the leadership team, you lead by example. Because you know, it's interesting, in an all my professional careers I have seen this. And when I was starting as a young student, of course, you're looking and you're watching your leadership team very closely to see how do they

  15. Solar Energy Education. Renewable energy: a background text....

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Solar Energy Education. Renewable energy: a ... The topics include solar energy, wind power hydroelectric power, biomass ocean thermal ...

  16. Southern Company Video (Text Version) | Department of Energy

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    We're also advancing the development of electric vehicle infrastructure, including publically available charging stations that enable drivers to quickly and safely recharge their ...

  17. Idaho Power Company Video (Text Version) | Department of Energy

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    The program includes parking spaces with charging stations designed for employee use at various locations. John Bernardo, Sustainability Strategist: So we're putting in charging ...

  18. POLICY GUIDANCE MEMORANDUM #06 Reducing Text Messaging While Driving

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This Order directed all agencies of the executive branch to take appropriate action within the scope of their existing programs to further the policies of this order and to implement rules for text messaging while operating Government-owned vehicles, or using electronic equipment supplied by the Government while driving.

  19. Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Multifamily

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Ventilation Strategies and Compartmentalization Requirements | Department of Energy Multifamily Ventilation Strategies and Compartmentalization Requirements Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Multifamily Ventilation Strategies and Compartmentalization Requirements Multifamily Ventilation Strategies and Compartmentalization Requirements September 24, 2014 Sean Maxwell, Senior Energy Consultant, Steven Winter Associates Joe Lstiburek, Founding Principal of Building Science

  20. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  1. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  2. Inferring Group Processes from Computer-Mediated Affective Text Analysis

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Schryver, Jack C; Begoli, Edmon; Jose, Ajith; Griffin, Christopher

    2011-02-01

    Political communications in the form of unstructured text convey rich connotative meaning that can reveal underlying group social processes. Previous research has focused on sentiment analysis at the document level, but we extend this analysis to sub-document levels through a detailed analysis of affective relationships between entities extracted from a document. Instead of pure sentiment analysis, which is just positive or negative, we explore nuances of affective meaning in 22 affect categories. Our affect propagation algorithm automatically calculates and displays extracted affective relationships among entities in graphical form in our prototype (TEAMSTER), starting with seed lists of affect terms. Several useful metrics are defined to infer underlying group processes by aggregating affective relationships discovered in a text. Our approach has been validated with annotated documents from the MPQA corpus, achieving a performance gain of 74% over comparable random guessers.

  3. Domain-independent information extraction in unstructured text

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Irwin, N.H.

    1996-09-01

    Extracting information from unstructured text has become an important research area in recent years due to the large amount of text now electronically available. This status report describes the findings and work done during the second year of a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project. Building on the first-year`s work of identifying important entities, this report details techniques used to group words into semantic categories and to output templates containing selective document content. Using word profiles and category clustering derived during a training run, the time-consuming knowledge-building task can be avoided. Though the output still lacks in completeness when compared to systems with domain-specific knowledge bases, the results do look promising. The two approaches are compatible and could complement each other within the same system. Domain-independent approaches retain appeal as a system that adapts and learns will soon outpace a system with any amount of a priori knowledge.

  4. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  5. Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Multifamily...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... Do you want to know more about these proven innovations born out of world-class research? ... Recently his work is focus on cost-effective retrofits including innovative approaches to ...

  6. Text Transcript of the Tribal Energy and Economic Development February

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Webinar: Exploring Your Energy Markets | Department of Energy Development February Webinar: Exploring Your Energy Markets Text Transcript of the Tribal Energy and Economic Development February Webinar: Exploring Your Energy Markets Randy Manion: Good morning or good afternoon wherever you may be and welcome to the second webinar of the 2016 DOE Tribal Renewable Energy Webinar Series: Exploring Your Energy Markets. I'm Randy Manion, today's webinar chair and manager of Western Area Power

  7. Text Transcript of the Tribal Energy and Economic Development March

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Webinar: Transmission and Grid Basics for Tribal Economic and Energy Development | Department of Energy Development March Webinar: Transmission and Grid Basics for Tribal Economic and Energy Development Text Transcript of the Tribal Energy and Economic Development March Webinar: Transmission and Grid Basics for Tribal Economic and Energy Development Sean Esterly: Good morning, or good afternoon, wherever you may be joining us from, and welcome to the third webinar of the 2016 Department of

  8. Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Central Multifamily

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Water Heating Systems | Department of Energy Central Multifamily Water Heating Systems Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Central Multifamily Water Heating Systems Central Multifamily Water Heating Systems January 21, 2015 Elizabeth Weitzel, Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI) Jordan Dentz, Advanced Residential Integrated Energy Solutions (ARIES) Eric Ansanelli, Advanced Residential Integrated Energy Solutions (ARIES) Gail: Hello everyone, I'm Gail Werren

  9. Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Solutions for

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Combustion Safety in Existing Homes | Department of Energy Solutions for Combustion Safety in Existing Homes Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Solutions for Combustion Safety in Existing Homes Solutions for Combustion Safety in Existing Homes 12/16/15 Speakers Larry Brand, Research and Development Manager at the Gas Technology Institute and the Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR) David Bohac, Director of Research with the Center for Energy and Environment

  10. Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Ventilation

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Strategies for High Performance Homes, Part I: Application-Specific Ventilation Guidelines | Department of Energy Ventilation Strategies for High Performance Homes, Part I: Application-Specific Ventilation Guidelines Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Ventilation Strategies for High Performance Homes, Part I: Application-Specific Ventilation Guidelines August 26, 2015 Building America - Ventilation Strategies for High Performance Homes, Part I: Application-Specific

  11. Text-Alternative Version of High Performance Space Conditioning Systems:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Part I | Department of Energy I Text-Alternative Version of High Performance Space Conditioning Systems: Part I High Performance Space Conditioning Systems: Part I October 21, 2014 Andrew Poerschke, Research Initiatives Specialist, IBACOS Kohta Ueno, Senior Associate, Building Science Corporation Gail: Hello everyone. I am Gail Werren with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. And I'd like to welcome you to today's webinar hosted by the Building America Program. We are excited to have

  12. Text-Alternative Version of High Performance Space Conditioning Systems:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Part II | Department of Energy II Text-Alternative Version of High Performance Space Conditioning Systems: Part II High Performance Space Conditioning Systems: Part II November 18, 2014 William Zoeller, Stephen Winter Associates Dave Mallay, Home Innovation Research Labs Jordan Dentz, The Levy Partnership Francis Conlin, High Performance Building Solutions Hello everyone! I am Gail Werren with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and I'd like to welcome you to today's webinar hosted by

  13. Modeling the efficient access of full-text information

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bernard, M.; Kero, R.; Korp, P.; McCusker-Whiting, M.; Tsur, S.; Dunlap, K.; Johnson, L.

    1996-05-01

    The title of this paper describes a research goal set by many offices within US DOE. This paper reviews efficient full-text searching techniques being developed to better understand and meet this goal. Classical computer human interaction (CHI) approaches provided by commercial information retrieval (IR) engines fail to contextualize information in ways that facilitate timely decision making. Use of advanced CHI techniques (eg, visualization) in combination with deductive database technology augment the weaknesses found in presentation capabilities of IR engines and are discussed. Various techniques employed in a Web-based prototype system currently under development are presented.

  14. Edge turbulence and transport: Text and ATF modeling

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Ritz, C.P.; Rhodes, T.L.; Lin, H.; Rowan, W.L.; Bengtson, R.; Wootton, A.J. . Fusion Research Center); Carreras, B.A.; Leboeuf, J.N.; Lee, D.K.; Harris, J.; Hidalgo, C.; Bell, J.D.; Holmes, J.A.; Isler, R.; Lynch, V.E.; Uckan, T. ); Diamond, P.H.; Ware, A.S. ); Thayer, D.R. (Science Applications Inter

    1990-01-01

    We present experimental results on edge turbulence and transport from the tokamak TEXT and the torsatron ATF. The measured electrostatic fluctuations can explain the edge transport of particles and energy. Certain drive (radiation) and stabilizing (velocity shear) terms are suggested by the results. The experimental fluctuation levels and spectral widths can be reproduced by considering the nonlinear evolution of the reduced MHD equations, incorporating a thermal drive from line radiation. In the tokamak limit (with toroidal electric field) the model corresponds to the resistivity gradient mode, while in the currentless torsatron or stellarator limit it corresponds to a thermally driven drift wave.

  15. Text-Alternative Version: LED Color Stability Webinar | Department of

    Energy Savers

    Energy Color Stability Webinar Text-Alternative Version: LED Color Stability Webinar Michael Royer: All right, welcome ladies and gentleman. I'm Michael Royer of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and I'd like to welcome you to today's webinar on LED Color Stability, Ten Important Questions, brought to you by the U.S. Department of Energy Solid-State Lighting Program. We're happy to have as our speakers today Chad Stalker of Philips Lumileds Lighting Company and Ralph Tuttle of Cree Hong

  16. Text-Alternative Version: Maintenance Practices for LED Streetlights |

    Energy Savers

    Department of Energy Maintenance Practices for LED Streetlights Text-Alternative Version: Maintenance Practices for LED Streetlights Bruce Kinzey:So again, I want to welcome everyone to another MSSLC webinar. And we have a great one lined up today. At this point everyone is familiar with the fact that the solid-state street lighting is being installed by the thousands, hundreds of thousands in fact, around the country. I think everyone's also pretty familiar with the kinds of energy savings

  17. Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Research for

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Real-World Results | Department of Energy Research for Real-World Results Text-Alternative Version of Building America Webinar: Research for Real-World Results Building America: Research for Real-World Results December 17, 2014 Eric Werling, U.S. Department of Energy, Building America Program Gail: Hello everyone! I am Gail Werren with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and I'd like to welcome you to today's webinar hosted by the Building America program. We are excited to have Eric

  18. 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Plenary – Keynote Address (Text Version)

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    This is the text version of the 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting Plenary – Keynote Address video, which includes the keynote address by the Honorable Byron Dorgan, U.S. Senate (retired) and an introduction by David Friedman, Acting Assistant Secretary, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.

  19. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and electric power source (AWEA, 2004a). This renewable energy has demonstrated its readiness to become a more significant contributor to the electricity supply in the western U.S. and help ease the power shortage (AWEA, 2000). The practical exercise of this alternative energy supply also showed its function in stabilizing electricity prices and reducing the emissions of pollution and greenhouse gases from other natural gas-fired power plants. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the world's winds could theoretically supply the equivalent of 5800 quadrillion BTUs of energy each year, which is 15 times current world energy demand (AWEA, 2004b). Archer and Jacobson (2005) also reported an estimation of the global wind energy potential with the magnitude near half of DOE's quote. Wind energy has been widely used in Europe; it currently supplies 20% and 6% of Denmark's and Germany's electric power, respectively, while less than 1% of U.S. electricity is generated from wind (AWEA, 2004a). The production of wind energy in California ({approx}1.2% of total power) is slightly higher than the national average (CEC & EPRI, 2003). With the recently enacted Renewable Portfolio Standards calling for 20% of renewables in California's power generation mix by 2010, the growth of wind energy would become an important resource on the electricity network. Based on recent wind energy research (Roulston et al., 2003), accurate weather forecasting has been recognized as an important factor to further improve the wind energy forecast for effective power management. To this end, UC-Davis (UCD) and LLNL proposed a joint effort through the use of UCD's wind tunnel facility and LLNL's real-time weather forecasting capability to develop an improved regional wind energy forecasting system. The current effort of UC-Davis is aimed at developing a database of wind turbine power curves as a function of wind speed and

  20. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  1. Secretary of Energy Moniz Keynote (Text Version) | Department of Energy

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Editorial in USA Today Secretary Steven Chu Editorial in USA Today March 5, 2009 - 12:00am Addthis Washington, D.C. - This morning's edition of USA Today includes the following editorial from Energy Secretary Steven Chu highlighting President Obama's plans to develop and deploy new energy technologies that will put Americans to work, reduce our dependence on foreign oil and address the global climate crisis: Research pays for itself: Investments in clean energy will unleash innovations, create

  2. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  3. SunShot Podcast Thermal Storage II Text Alternative

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    SunShot Podcast Thermal Storage for CSP Part II: Technical background and SunShot's role in advancing R&D music transition Moderator: Welcome to the SunShot Initiative podcast hosted by the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Program. Today, we are talking about thermal energy storage for concentrating solar power, including the technical background and SunShot's role in advancing research, in the second segment of a three-part series on this topic. I'm here with Ranga Pitchumani, director of

  4. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  5. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  6. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  7. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  8. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  9. Recommending personally interested contents by text mining, filtering, and interfaces

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Xu, Songhua

    2015-10-27

    A personalized content recommendation system includes a client interface device configured to monitor a user's information data stream. A collaborative filter remote from the client interface device generates automated predictions about the interests of the user. A database server stores personal behavioral profiles and user's preferences based on a plurality of monitored past behaviors and an output of the collaborative user personal interest inference engine. A programmed personal content recommendation server filters items in an incoming information stream with the personal behavioral profile and identifies only those items of the incoming information stream that substantially matches the personal behavioral profile. The identified personally relevant content is then recommended to the user following some priority that may consider the similarity between the personal interest matches, the context of the user information consumption behaviors that may be shown by the user's content consumption mode.

  10. Recommending personally interested contents by text mining, filtering, and interfaces

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    xu, Songhua

    2015-11-05

    A personalized content recommendation system includes a client interface device configured to monitor a user's information data stream. A collaborative filter remote from the client interface device generates automated predictions about the interests of the user. A database server stores personal behavioral profiles and user's preferences based on a plurality of monitored past behaviors and an output of the collaborative user personal interest inference engine. A programmed personal content recommendation server filters items in an incoming information stream with the personal behavioral profile and identifies only those items of the incoming information stream that substantially matches the personal behavioral profile. The identified personally relevant content is then recommended to the user following some priority that may consider the similarity between the personal interest matches, the context of the user information consumption behaviors that may be shown by the user's content consumption mode.

  11. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. ...

  12. Research Study - Global Enterprise VoIP Equipment Market Forecasts...

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  13. Global GPS Phones Market Size, Segmentation, Demand Forecast...

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    we deeply analyzed the world's main region market conditions that including the product price, profit, capacity, production, capacity utilization, supply, demand and industry...

  14. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  15. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  16. Nuclear Arms Control R&D Consortium includes Los Alamos

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Nuclear Arms Control R&D Consortium includes Los Alamos Nuclear Arms Control R&D Consortium includes Los Alamos A consortium led by the University of Michigan that includes LANL as ...

  17. PBL FY 2002 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Revenue Basis. The FB CRAC Revenue Basis is the total generation revenue (not including LB CRAC) for the loads subject to FB CRAC plus Slice loads, for the year in which the FB...

  18. Should Title 24 Ventilation Requirements Be Amended to include...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    include an Indoor Air Quality Procedure? Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Should Title 24 Ventilation Requirements Be Amended to include an Indoor Air Quality Procedure? ...

  19. Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in California (Including Vehicle...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    California (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in California (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun ...

  20. Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle Fuel through 1996) in the U.S. (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle Fuel ...

  1. Solar Energy Education. Reader, Part II. Sun story. [Includes...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Reader, Part II. Sun story. Includes glossary Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Solar Energy Education. Reader, Part II. Sun story. Includes glossary You are ...

  2. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Microfluidic devices and methods ...

  3. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths ...

  4. Newport News in Review, ch. 47, segment includes TEDF groundbreaking...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    https:www.jlab.orgnewsarticlesnewport-news-review-ch-47-segment-includes-tedf-groundbreaking-event Newport News in Review, ch. 47, segment includes TEDF groundbreaking event...

  5. Property:Number of Plants included in Capacity Estimate | Open...

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Plants included in Capacity Estimate Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Number of Plants included in Capacity Estimate Property Type Number Retrieved from "http:...

  6. Property:Number of Plants Included in Planned Estimate | Open...

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Number of Plants Included in Planned Estimate Jump to: navigation, search Property Name Number of Plants Included in Planned Estimate Property Type String Description Number of...

  7. FEMP Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation Measures FEMP Expands ESPC ENABLE Program to Include More Energy Conservation Measures November 13, 2013 - 12:00am...

  8. Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in Minnesota (Including Vehicle...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Minnesota (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in Minnesota (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun ...

  9. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  10. ParaText : scalable solutions for processing and searching very large document collections : final LDRD report.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crossno, Patricia Joyce; Dunlavy, Daniel M.; Stanton, Eric T.; Shead, Timothy M.

    2010-09-01

    This report is a summary of the accomplishments of the 'Scalable Solutions for Processing and Searching Very Large Document Collections' LDRD, which ran from FY08 through FY10. Our goal was to investigate scalable text analysis; specifically, methods for information retrieval and visualization that could scale to extremely large document collections. Towards that end, we designed, implemented, and demonstrated a scalable framework for text analysis - ParaText - as a major project deliverable. Further, we demonstrated the benefits of using visual analysis in text analysis algorithm development, improved performance of heterogeneous ensemble models in data classification problems, and the advantages of information theoretic methods in user analysis and interpretation in cross language information retrieval. The project involved 5 members of the technical staff and 3 summer interns (including one who worked two summers). It resulted in a total of 14 publications, 3 new software libraries (2 open source and 1 internal to Sandia), several new end-user software applications, and over 20 presentations. Several follow-on projects have already begun or will start in FY11, with additional projects currently in proposal.

  11. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  12. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  13. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  14. Example Retro-Commissioning Scope of Work to Include Services...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Retro-Commissioning Scope of Work to Include Services as Part of an ESPC Investment-Grade Audit Example Retro-Commissioning Scope of Work to Include Services as Part of an ESPC ...

  15. SWS Online Tool now includes Multifamily Content, plus a How...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    SWS Online Tool now includes Multifamily Content, plus a How-To Webinar SWS Online Tool now includes Multifamily Content, plus a How-To Webinar This announcement contains ...

  16. Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in New Mexico (Including Vehicle...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Mexico (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers in New Mexico (Including Vehicle Fuel) (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul ...

  17. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Patent) | DOEPatents devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting porous polymer monolith may include surfaces terminated with

  18. Computers for artificial intelligence a technology assessment and forecast

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Miller, R.K.

    1986-01-01

    This study reviews the development and current state-of-the-art in computers for artificial intelligence, including LISP machines, AI workstations, professional and engineering workstations, minicomputers, mainframes, and supercomputers. Major computer systems for AI applications are reviewed. The use of personal computers for expert system development is discussed, and AI software for the IBM PC, Texas Instrument Professional Computer, and Apple MacIntosh is presented. Current research aimed at developing a new computer for artificial intelligence is described, and future technological developments are discussed.

  19. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  20. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  1. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  2. A Chronological Reliability Model Incorporating Wind Forecasts to Assess Wind Plant Reserve Allocation: Preprint

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    * NREL/CP-500-32210 A Chronological Reliability Model Incorporating Wind Forecasts to Assess Wind Plant Reserve Allocation Preprint Michael Milligan To be presented at the American Wind Energy Association WindPower 2002 Conference Portland, Oregon June 3 - June 5, 2002 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337

  3. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  4. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho and Oregon

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy and the electricity industry have jointly invested over $7.9 billion in 99 cost-shared Smart Grid Investment Grant projects to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cybersecurity, improve interoperability, and collect an unprecedented level of data on smart grid and customer operations. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company (IPC)

  5. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  6. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  7. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE PAGES-Beta [OSTI]

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  8. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  9. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  10. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  11. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  12. Percentage of Total Natural Gas Industrial Deliveries included in Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    City Gate Price Residential Price Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices Commercial Price Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices Industrial Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 View History U.S.

  13. Percentage of Total Natural Gas Residential Deliveries included in Prices

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    City Gate Price Residential Price Percentage of Total Residential Deliveries included in Prices Commercial Price Percentage of Total Commercial Deliveries included in Prices Industrial Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series History Definitions, Sources & Notes Definitions, Sources & Notes Show Data By: Data Series Area Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 View History U.S.

  14. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (Patent) | SciTech Connect Patent: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting

  15. Introduction to Small-Scale Photovoltaic Systems (Including RETScreen...

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Photovoltaic Systems (Including RETScreen Case Study) (Webinar) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Introduction to Small-Scale Photovoltaic Systems...

  16. Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    California (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle Fuel through 1996) in California (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun ...

  17. DOE Releases Request for Information on Critical Materials, Including...

    Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]

    including fuel cell platinum group metal catalysts. ... on issues related to the demand, supply, opportunities for ... Announces Second RFI on Rare Earth Metals DOE Announces RFI ...

  18. Numerical simulations for low energy nuclear reactions including...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Numerical simulations for low energy nuclear reactions including direct channels to validate statistical models Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Numerical simulations for ...

  19. U-182: Microsoft Windows Includes Some Invalid Certificates

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The operating system includes some invalid intermediate certificates. The vulnerability is due to the certificate authorities and not the operating system itself.

  20. Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Virginia (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle Fuel through 1996) in Virginia (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul...

  1. Numerical simulations for low energy nuclear reactions including...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Numerical simulations for low energy nuclear reactions including direct channels to ... Visit OSTI to utilize additional information resources in energy science and technology. A ...

  2. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting porous polymer monolith may include surfaces terminated with iniferter species. Capture molecules may then be grafted to ...

  3. Introduction to Small-Scale Wind Energy Systems (Including RETScreen...

    Open Energy Information (Open El) [EERE & EIA]

    Case Study) (Webinar) Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Introduction to Small-Scale Wind Energy Systems (Including RETScreen Case Study) (Webinar) Focus...

  4. Percentage of Total Natural Gas Industrial Deliveries included...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Price Percentage of Total Industrial Deliveries included in Prices Vehicle Fuel Price Electric Power Price Period: Monthly Annual Download Series History Download Series ...

  5. Search for Earth-like planets includes LANL star analysis

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    their interiors. Consortium team members at Los Alamos include Joyce Ann Guzik, Paul Bradley, Arthur N. Cox, and Kim Simmons. They will help interpret the stellar oscillation...

  6. Including Retro-Commissioning in Federal Energy Savings Performance Contracts

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Document describes guidance on the importance of (and steps to) including retro-commissioning in federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs).

  7. Comparison of Joint Modeling Approaches Including Eulerian Sliding...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Eulerian Sliding Interfaces Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Comparison of Joint Modeling Approaches Including Eulerian Sliding Interfaces You are accessing a ...

  8. Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Published Article: Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability: NITROUS OXIDE AND ITS CHANGING LIFETIME Prev Next Title: Measuring and ...

  9. SU-C-BRD-03: Analysis of Accelerator Generated Text Logs for Preemptive Maintenance

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Able, CM; Baydush, AH; Nguyen, C; Munley, MT; Gersh, J; Ndlovu, A; Rebo, I; Booth, J; Perez, M; Sintay, B

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To develop a model to analyze medical accelerator generated parameter and performance data that will provide an early warning of performance degradation and impending component failure. Methods: A robust 6 MV VMAT quality assurance treatment delivery was used to test the constancy of accelerator performance. The generated text log files were decoded and analyzed using statistical process control (SPC) methodology. The text file data is a single snapshot of energy specific and overall systems parameters. A total of 36 system parameters were monitored which include RF generation, electron gun control, energy control, beam uniformity control, DC voltage generation, and cooling systems. The parameters were analyzed using Individual and Moving Range (I/MR) charts. The chart limits were calculated using a hybrid technique that included the use of the standard 3? limits and the parameter/system specification. Synthetic errors/changes were introduced to determine the initial effectiveness of I/MR charts in detecting relevant changes in operating parameters. The magnitude of the synthetic errors/changes was based on: the value of 1 standard deviation from the mean operating parameter of 483 TB systems, a small fraction (? 5%) of the operating range, or a fraction of the minor fault deviation. Results: There were 34 parameters in which synthetic errors were introduced. There were 2 parameters (radial position steering coil, and positive 24V DC) in which the errors did not exceed the limit of the I/MR chart. The I chart limit was exceeded for all of the remaining parameters (94.2%). The MR chart limit was exceeded in 29 of the 32 parameters (85.3%) in which the I chart limit was exceeded. Conclusion: Statistical process control I/MR evaluation of text log file parameters may be effective in providing an early warning of performance degradation or component failure for digital medical accelerator systems. Research is Supported by Varian Medical Systems, Inc.

  10. Solar Energy Education. Reader, Part II. Sun story. [Includes glossary

    SciTech Connect (OSTI)

    Not Available

    1981-05-01

    Magazine articles which focus on the subject of solar energy are presented. The booklet prepared is the second of a four part series of the Solar Energy Reader. Excerpts from the magazines include the history of solar energy, mythology and tales, and selected poetry on the sun. A glossary of energy related terms is included. (BCS)

  11. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hatch, Anson V.; Sommer, Gregory j.; Singh, Anup K.; Wang, Ying-Chih; Abhyankar, Vinay

    2015-12-01

    Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting porous polymer monolith may include surfaces terminated with iniferter species. Capture molecules may then be grafted to the monolith pores.

  12. Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Hatch, Anson V; Sommer, Gregory J; Singh, Anup K; Wang, Ying-Chih; Abhyankar, Vinay V

    2014-04-22

    Microfluidic devices and methods including porous polymer monoliths are described. Polymerization techniques may be used to generate porous polymer monoliths having pores defined by a liquid component of a fluid mixture. The fluid mixture may contain iniferters and the resulting porous polymer monolith may include surfaces terminated with iniferter species. Capture molecules may then be grafted to the monolith pores.

  13. Articles which include chevron film cooling holes, and related processes

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Bunker, Ronald Scott; Lacy, Benjamin Paul

    2014-12-09

    An article is described, including an inner surface which can be exposed to a first fluid; an inlet; and an outer surface spaced from the inner surface, which can be exposed to a hotter second fluid. The article further includes at least one row or other pattern of passage holes. Each passage hole includes an inlet bore extending through the substrate from the inlet at the inner surface to a passage hole-exit proximate to the outer surface, with the inlet bore terminating in a chevron outlet adjacent the hole-exit. The chevron outlet includes a pair of wing troughs having a common surface region between them. The common surface region includes a valley which is adjacent the hole-exit; and a plateau adjacent the valley. The article can be an airfoil. Related methods for preparing the passage holes are also described.

  14. Turbomachine injection nozzle including a coolant delivery system

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Zuo, Baifang (Simpsonville, SC)

    2012-02-14

    An injection nozzle for a turbomachine includes a main body having a first end portion that extends to a second end portion defining an exterior wall having an outer surface. A plurality of fluid delivery tubes extend through the main body. Each of the plurality of fluid delivery tubes includes a first fluid inlet for receiving a first fluid, a second fluid inlet for receiving a second fluid and an outlet. The injection nozzle further includes a coolant delivery system arranged within the main body. The coolant delivery system guides a coolant along at least one of a portion of the exterior wall and around the plurality of fluid delivery tubes.

  15. Removal of mineral matter including pyrite from coal

    DOE Patents [OSTI]

    Reggel, Leslie; Raymond, Raphael; Blaustein, Bernard D.

    1976-11-23

    Mineral matter, including pyrite, is removed from coal by treatment of the coal with aqueous alkali at a temperature of about 175.degree. to 350.degree. C, followed by acidification with strong acid.

  16. Virginia Senate Approves Budget Deal to Include Money for FEL...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) all webpages (Extended Search)

    Virginia Senate Approves Budget Deal to Include Money for FEL (Daily Press) External Link: http:articles.dailypress.com2012-04-18newsdp-nws-general-assembly-budget-da... By ...

  17. T-603: Mac OS X Includes Some Invalid Comodo Certificates

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    The operating system includes some invalid certificates. The vulnerability is due to the invalid certificates and not the operating system itself. Other browsers, applications, and operating systems are affected.

  18. Energy Department Expands Gas Gouging Reporting System to Include...

    Energy Savers

    Expands Gas Gouging Reporting System to Include 1-800 Number: 1-800-244-3301 Energy Department Expands Gas ... of reformulated gasoline in storage and is already helping to ...

  19. Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle...

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Mexico (Million Cubic Feet) Natural Gas Deliveries to Commercial Consumers (Including Vehicle Fuel through 1996) in New Mexico (Million Cubic Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul ...

  20. Including Retro-Commissioning in Federal Energy Savings Performance...

    Energy Savers

    the cost of the survey. Developing a detailed scope of work and a fixed price for this work is important to eliminate risk to the Agency and the ESCo. Including a detailed scope...