National Library of Energy BETA

Sample records for focus macroeconomic forecasting

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    Reports and Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  2. Methodology for the Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impacts of Stricter CAFE Standards - Addendum

    Reports and Publications

    2002-01-01

    This assessment of the economic impacts of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards marks the first time the Energy Information Administration has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

  3. AEO2017 Preliminary Macroeconomic Results

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Preliminary Macroeconomic Results For Macroeconomic Working Group July 28, 2016 | Washington, DC By Vipin Arora, Elizabeth Sendich, and Russ Tarver Macroeconomic Analysis Team Economic growth in major trading partners slows over the projection period while the dollar gradually depreciates Macroeconomic Working Group, Washington DC, July 28, 2016 2 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 real trade-weighted GDP of major trading partners

  4. Macroeconomic Activity Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications

    2016-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2016 (AEO2016). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

  5. Macroeconomic Activity Module - NEMS Documentation

    Reports and Publications

    2014-01-01

    Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2014 (AEO2014). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code

  6. Macroeconomic aspects of a petroleum boom: Ecuador, 1972-1980

    SciTech Connect

    de la Torre, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    This dissertation analyzes Ecuador's macroeconomic experience during the period of petroleum bonanza (1972-1980). The first chapter describes salient adjustments to a booming-sector phenomenon in the context of a formal, two-sector model of a small open economy, adapted to the stylized facts of the Ecuadorean case. The remainder of the dissertation is a historical case study that reviews actual macroeconomic developments and policies in Ecuador. The review of Ecuador's experience is organized as follows. Chapter 2 analyzes the adjustments in income, absorption, and the current account to the oil boom. Chapter 3 examines the monetary implications of the sudden influx of foreign exchange and the nature of the policy responses to it. Chapter 4 turns to the fiscal and credit areas, focusing on how the boom gave rise to, on the one hand, a significant increase in the State's allocative and developmental roles and, on the other, a relaxation of domestic resource-mobilization efforts. Chapter 5 emphasizes the distinction between exposed (or traded) and sheltered (or nontraded) sectors in order to clarify the nature of the linkages between the oil boom, the real exchange-rate appreciation, and the observed pattern of change in sectoral output and employment during the 1970s.

  7. Alternative Measures of Welfare in Macroeconomic Models

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Alternative Measures of Welfare in Macroeconomic Models Vipin Arora December 2013 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This paper is released to encourage discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions expressed here are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. WORKING PAPER SERIES December 2013 Vipin Arora | U.S. Energy Information Administration | This

  8. Energy Production and Trade: An Overview of Some Macroeconomic...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Energy Production and Trade: An Overview of Some Macroeconomic Issues Vipin Arora November 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration ...

  9. Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 - Macroeconomic...

    Annual Energy Outlook

    in this module. A detailed description of the MAM is provided in the EIA publication, Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy...

  10. An Evaluation of Macroeconomic Models for Use at EIA

    Annual Energy Outlook

    ... For example, international macroeconomic models are often ... reader is referred to an advanced textbook on time series ...john.cochraneresearchpaperstimeseriesbook.pdf. ...

  11. Solar Forecasting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    On December 7, 2012, DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....

  12. July 2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting: Maximizing its value for grid integration Introduction The forecasting of power generated by variable energy resources such as wind and solar has been the focus of academic and industrial research and development for as long as significant amounts of these renewable energy resources have been connected to the electric grid. The progress of forecasting capabilities has largely followed the penetration of the respective resources, with wind forecasting

  13. Forecast Change

    Annual Energy Outlook

    Forecast Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 from 2015 United States Usage (kWh) 3,444 3,354 3,129 3,037 3,151 3,302 4.8% Price (centskWh) 12.06 12.09 12.58 13.04 12.95 12.84 ...

  14. Petroleum Data, Natural Gas Data, Coal Data, Macroeconomic Data, Petroleum Import Data

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    Supplemental tables to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2006 for petroleum, natural gas, coal, macroeconomic, and import data

  15. Notice of Intent to Issue Solar Forecasting 2 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting 2 Notice of Intent to Issue Solar Forecasting 2 Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Number: DE-FOA-0001658 Funding Amount: $10,000,000 The SunShot Initiative intends to release a funding opportunity announcement (FOA) to support advancements in solar forecasting to enable higher penetration of solar power in the electric grid. The Solar Forecasting 2 FOA will focus on improving solar forecasting skills, especially during challenging conditions, such as partly cloudy weather

  16. probabilistic energy production forecasts

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    energy production forecasts - Sandia Energy Energy Search Icon Sandia Home Locations Contact Us Employee Locator Energy & Climate Secure & Sustainable Energy Future Stationary ...

  17. Wind Power Forecasting Data

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Operations Call 2012 Retrospective Reports 2012 Retrospective Reports 2011 Smart Grid Wind Integration Wind Integration Initiatives Wind Power Forecasting Wind Projects Email...

  18. Solar Forecasting Technical Workshop

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting Technical Workshop August 3, 2016 901 D St SW, Suite #930, Washington, DC Agenda 8:00-8:30 Check-in 8:30-8:45 Welcome & Opening remarks Guohui Yuan, DOE 8:45-9:15 Overview of Motivation and Techniques for Solar Forecasting Jan Kleissl, UCSD 9:15-9:45 Collaborative Research on Solar Power Forecasting: Challenges, Methods, and Assessment Tara Jensen, NCAR 9:45-10:00 Break 10:00-10:30 Machine-learning Based Enhancements for Renewable Energy Forecasting: From Research to Applications

  19. Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    data Presentations BPA Super Forecast Methodology Related Links Near Real-time Wind Animation Meteorological Data Customer Supplied Generation Imbalance Dynamic Transfer Limits...

  20. Macroeconomic consequences of energy supply shocks in Ukraine. Discussion paper

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, H.Q.; Grais, W.

    1994-07-01

    In exploring the short-term macroeconomic effects of energy-supply shocks in Ukraine, the paper relies on the simplifying assumption that enterprises face economic regulation but not ownership uncertainty that would adversely affect their behavior. In a sense, it assumes that Ukraine's economy is already at the second stage of reform, when ownership and contract-enforcement questions are less of an issue. Under these assumptions and if real wages are protected, the analysis yields clear messages. The conclusion is that Ukraine must clarify ownership and contract-enforcement issues as rapidly as possible, liberalize nonenergy prices at a minimum, and begin adjusting domestic energy prices to reflect the opportunity cost of these resources.

  1. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting | Department

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    of Energy 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting This module focuses on the metrics and performance measurement tools used in Earned Value. This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as estimate to complete (ETC) and estimate at completion (EAC). Begin Module >> (471

  2. Evaluation of the St. Lucia geothermal resource: macroeconomic models

    SciTech Connect

    Burris, A.E.; Trocki, L.K.; Yeamans, M.K.; Kolstad, C.D.

    1984-08-01

    A macroeconometric model describing the St. Lucian economy was developed using 1970 to 1982 economic data. Results of macroeconometric forecasts for the period 1983 through 1985 show an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) for 1983 and 1984 with a decline in 1985. The rate of population growth is expected to exceed GDP growth so that a small decline in per capita GDP will occur. We forecast that garment exports will increase, providing needed employment and foreign exchange. To obtain a longer-term but more general outlook on St. Lucia's economy, and to evaluate the benefit of geothermal energy development, we applied a nonlinear programming model. The model maximizes discounted cumulative consumption.

  3. Bringing Clouds into Focus

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Bringing Clouds into Focus Bringing Clouds into Focus A New Global Climate Model May Reduce the Uncertainty of Climate Forecasting May 11, 2010 Contact: John Hules, JAHules@lbl.gov , +1 510 486 6008 Randall-fig4.png The large data sets generated by the GCRM require new analysis and visualization capabilities. This 3D plot of vorticity isosurfaces was developed using VisIt, a 3D visualization tool with a parallel distributed architecture, which is being extended to support the geodesic grid used

  4. NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Forecasting NREL researchers use solar and wind resource assessment and forecasting techniques to develop models that better characterize the potential benefits and impacts of ...

  5. Technical analysis in short-term uranium price forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Schramm, D.S.

    1990-03-01

    As market participants anticipate the end of the current uranium price decline and its subsequent reversal, increased attention will be focused upon forecasting future price movements. Although uranium is economically similar to other mineral commodities, it is questionable whether methodologies used to forecast price movements of such commodities may be successfully applied to uranium.

  6. The macroeconomic module of the Energy Policy Evaluation Model of Guatemala

    SciTech Connect

    Booth, S.R. ); Cancino, R. )

    1991-08-01

    This report describes the methodology and results of the macroeconomic module of the Energy Policy Evaluation Model of Guatemala (MEPEG). This effort was conducted jointly by the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Guatemala and Los Alamos National Laboratory under the Central American Energy and Resources Project of Los Alamos, funded by the US Agency for International Development. The data, theory, empirical specification, and simulation results of the macroeconomic module are described. 10 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  7. 2016 SSL Forecast Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, is a biannual report which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S. general-lighting market,...

  8. SSL Forecast Report

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications, is the latest edition of a biannual report which models the adoption of LEDs in the U.S....

  9. Acquisition Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast Acquisition Forecast It is the policy of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to provide timely information to the public regarding DOE's forecast of future prime contracting opportunities and subcontracting opportunities which are available via the Department's major site and facilities management contractors. This forecast has been expanded to also provide timely status information for ongoing prime contracting actions that are valued in excess of the

  10. Central Wind Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities: Revised Edition

    SciTech Connect

    Rogers, J.; Porter, K.

    2011-03-01

    The report and accompanying table addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America. The first part of the table focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that have central wind power forecasting in place; the second part focuses on electric utilities and regional transmission organizations that plan to adopt central wind power forecasting in 2010. This is an update of the December 2009 report, NREL/SR-550-46763.

  11. LANSCE Focus

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Nuclear science observations and opportunities at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center Colleagues, This special Focus issue highlights a set of nuclear physics capabilities at the ...

  12. In Focus

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    In Focus Our Vision National User Facilities Research Areas In Focus Global Solutions ⇒ Navigate Section Our Vision National User Facilities Research Areas In Focus Global Solutions Amazing Science Images Take a look at some incredible images from the science we conduct at Berkeley Lab. 10 On the Way At Berkeley Lab, our goal is to bring science solutions to the world. Here are 10 entries in our 2015 "On the Way" list that are either starting up, moving along, or getting ready to

  13. Ion focusing

    SciTech Connect

    Cooks, Robert Graham; Baird, Zane; Peng, Wen-Ping

    2015-11-10

    The invention generally relates to apparatuses for focusing ions at or above ambient pressure and methods of use thereof. In certain embodiments, the invention provides an apparatus for focusing ions that includes an electrode having a cavity, at least one inlet within the electrode configured to operatively couple with an ionization source, such that discharge generated by the ionization source is injected into the cavity of the electrode, and an outlet. The cavity in the electrode is shaped such that upon application of voltage to the electrode, ions within the cavity are focused and directed to the outlet, which is positioned such that a proximal end of the outlet receives the focused ions and a distal end of the outlet is open to ambient pressure.

  14. LANSCE Focus

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Focus Nuclear science observations and opportunities at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center Colleagues, This special Focus issue highlights a set of nuclear physics capabilities at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) serving Los Alamos National Laboratory's national security mis- sion and the global scientific user community. With a total of 10 flight paths, LANSCE pro- vides the opportunity to perform experiments with low- to high-energy neutron sources and high-energy proton

  15. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting ... Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting Jie ...

  16. Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of Wikipedia articles. November 13, 2014 Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Del Valle and her team observe findings from their research on disease patterns from analyzing Wikipedia articles. Contact Nancy Ambrosiano Communications Office (505)

  17. UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.

    2011-04-01

    This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.

  18. Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Zip: 94965 Region: Bay Area Sector: Services Product: Intelligent Monitoring and Forecasting Services Year Founded: 2010 Website: www.forecastenergy.net Coordinates:...

  19. The forecast calls for flu

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on the Hill: The forecast calls for flu Using mathematics, computer programs, ... We're getting close. Using mathematics, computer programs, statistics and information ...

  20. Macroeconomic consequences of energy supply shocks in Ukraine. Studies of Economies in Transformation 12

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, H.Q.; Grais, W.

    1994-08-01

    Analyzes the macroeconomic implications of the economic shock the Ukraine has experienced in its transition to a market economy. This study analyzes the short-term macroeconomic implications of the energy crisis for Ukraine, the largest energy-dependent successor state of the former Soviet Union. The framework assumes, for the sake of analysis, that Ukraine`s economy is already at the second stage of reform, in which ownership and contract enforcement are an increasingly minor issue. The authors point out that the synergy between economic liberalization and adjustment to the shock allows a recovery of activity. They conclude that Ukraine should clarify as rapidly as possible ownership and contract enforcement issues, liberalize nonenergy prices, and adjust domestic energy prices to reflect the opportunity cost of using these resources elsewhere.

  1. Solar Energy Market Forecast | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Market Forecast Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Solar Energy Market Forecast AgencyCompany Organization: United States Department of Energy Sector:...

  2. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am ...

  3. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.

  4. Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Priedhorsky, Reid; Salathé, Marcel

    2014-11-13

    Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data, such as social media and search queries, are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: accessmore » logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.« less

  5. Intermediate future forecasting system

    SciTech Connect

    Gass, S.I.; Murphy, F.H.; Shaw, S.H.

    1983-12-01

    The purposes of the Symposium on the Department of Energy's Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS) were: (1) to present to the energy community details of DOE's new energy market model IFFS; and (2) to have an open forum in which IFFS and its major elements could be reviewed and critiqued by external experts. DOE speakers discussed the total system, its software design, and the modeling aspects of oil and gas supply, refineries, electric utilities, coal, and the energy economy. Invited experts critiqued each of these topics and offered suggestions for modifications and improvement. This volume documents the proceedings (papers and discussion) of the Symposium. Separate abstracts have been prepared for each presentation for inclusion in the Energy Data Base.

  6. Science on Tap - Forecasting illness

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Science on Tap - Forecasting illness Science on Tap - Forecasting illness WHEN: Mar 17, 2016 5:30 PM - 7:00 PM WHERE: UnQuarked Wine Room 145 Central Park Square, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87544 USA CONTACT: Linda Anderman (505) 665-9196 CATEGORY: Bradbury INTERNAL: Calendar Login Event Description Mark your calendars for this event held every third Thursday from 5:30 to 7 p.m. A short presentation is followed by a lively discussion on a different subject each month. Forecasting the flu (and other

  7. Acquisition Forecast Download | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Acquisition Forecast Download Acquisition Forecast Download Click on the link to download a copy of the DOE HQ Acquisition Forecast. Acquisition-Forecast-2016-11-10.xlsx (70.03 KB) More Documents & Publications National Nuclear Security Administration - Juliana Heynes Small Business Program Manager Directory EA-1900: Notice of Availability of a Draft Environmental Assessment

  8. Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.

    2011-04-01

    This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

  9. 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting Workshop 2016 Solar Forecasting Workshop On August 3, 2016, the SunShot Initiative's systems integration subprogram hosted the Solar Forecasting Workshop to convene experts in the areas of bulk power system operations, distribution system operations, weather and solar irradiance forecasting, and photovoltaic system operation and modeling. The goal was to identify the technical challenges and opportunities in solar forecasting as a capability that can significantly reduce the

  10. Model developer`s appendix to the model documentation report: NEMS macroeconomic activity module

    SciTech Connect

    1994-07-15

    The NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) tested here was used to generate the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94). MAM is a response surface model, not a structural model, composed of three submodules: the National Submodule, the Interindustry Submodule, and the Regional Submodule. Contents of this report are as follows: properties of the mathematical solution; NEMS MAM empirical basis; and scenario analysis. Scenario analysis covers: expectations for scenario analysis; historical world oil price scenario; AEO94 high world oil price scenario; AEO94 low world oil price scenario; and immediate increase world oil price scenario.

  11. 1980 annual report to Congress: Volume three, Forecasts: Summary

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-05-27

    This report presents an overview of forecasts of domestic energy consumption, production, and prices for the year 1990. These results are selected from more detailed projections prepared and published in Volume 3 of the Energy Information Administration 1980 Annual Report to Congress. This report focuses specifically upon the 1980's and concentrates upon similarities and differences in the domestic energy system, as forecast, compared to the national experience in the years immediately following the 1973--1974 oil embargo. Interest in the 1980's stems not only from its immediacy in time, but also from its importance as a time in which certain adjustments to higher energy prices are expected to take place. The forecasts presented do not attempt to account for all of this wide range of potentially important forces that could conceivably alter the energy situation. Instead, the projections are based on a particular set of assumptions that seems reasonable in light of what is currently known. 9 figs., 25 tabs.

  12. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern ...

  13. Picture of the Week: Forecasting Flu

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    3 Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? March 6, 2016 flu epidemics modellled using social media Watch the video on YouTube. Forecasting Flu What if we could forecast infectious diseases the same way we forecast the weather, and predict how diseases like Dengue, Typhus or Zika were going to spread? Using real-time data from Wikipedia and social media, Sara del

  14. EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    EIA lowers forecast for summer gasoline prices U.S. gasoline prices are expected to be ... according to the new monthly forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. ...

  15. Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy

    Energy Saver

    Forecasting Improvement Project Wind Forecasting Improvement Project October 3, 2011 - 12:12pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Third Quarter 2011 edition of the Wind Program ...

  16. Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting Water Quality & Biodiversity March 25, 2015 Cross-cutting Sustainability Platform Review Principle Investigator: Dr. Henriette I. Jager Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory This presentation does not contain any proprietary, confidential, or otherwise restricted information 2015 DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Project Peer Review Goal Statement Addresses the following MYPP BETO goals:  Advance scientific methods and models for measuring and understanding

  17. Model documentation report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-07

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 1994 (AEO94). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS MAM used for the AEO 1994 production runs for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.

  18. An Optimized Autoregressive Forecast Error Generator for Wind and Load Uncertainty Study

    SciTech Connect

    De Mello, Phillip; Lu, Ning; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2011-01-17

    This paper presents a first-order autoregressive algorithm to generate real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast errors. The methodology aims at producing random wind and load forecast time series reflecting the autocorrelation and cross-correlation of historical forecast data sets. Five statistical characteristics are considered: the means, standard deviations, autocorrelations, and cross-correlations. A stochastic optimization routine is developed to minimize the differences between the statistical characteristics of the generated time series and the targeted ones. An optimal set of parameters are obtained and used to produce the RT, HA, and DA forecasts in due order of succession. This method, although implemented as the first-order regressive random forecast error generator, can be extended to higher-order. Results show that the methodology produces random series with desired statistics derived from real data sets provided by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). The wind and load forecast error generator is currently used in wind integration studies to generate wind and load inputs for stochastic planning processes. Our future studies will focus on reflecting the diurnal and seasonal differences of the wind and load statistics and implementing them in the random forecast generator.

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  20. Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.

    SciTech Connect

    Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.

    2011-11-29

    The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help

  1. The Value of Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American ...

  2. July 2016 Systems Integration Solar Forecasting:

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ... Those costs comprise fuel costs from expensive generators ... an improved-accuracy forecast of the solar power generation. ... analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power ...

  3. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting Home Page

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    are used to plan and develop renewable energy technologies and support climate change research. Learn more about NREL's resource assessment and forecasting research:...

  4. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    There is no cost to participate and all applicants are encouraged to attend. To join the ... Related Articles Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in ...

  5. Module 6 - Metrics, Performance Measurements and Forecasting...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    This module reviews metrics such as cost and schedule variance along with cost and schedule performance indices. In addition, this module will outline forecasting tools such as ...

  6. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices 63wateruseoptimizationprojectanlgasper.ppt (7.72 MB) More ...

  7. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Webmaster

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    email address: Your message: Send Message Printable Version Resource Assessment & Forecasting Home Capabilities Facilities Working with Us Research Staff Data & Resources Did...

  8. Forecast and Funding Arrangements - Hanford Site

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Annual Waste Forecast and Funding Arrangements About Us Hanford Site Solid Waste Acceptance Program What's New Acceptance Criteria Acceptance Process Becoming a new Hanford...

  9. Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Sensing, Measurement, and Forecasting NREL measures weather resources and power systems, forecasts renewable resources and grid conditions, and converts measurements into operational intelligence to support a modern grid. Photo of solar resource monitoring equipment Modernizing the grid involves assessing its health in real time, predicting its behavior and potential disruptions, and quickly responding to events-which requires understanding vital parameters throughout the electric

  10. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in ...

  11. Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types PDF icon Data Collection ...

  12. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen MJ ... Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory M Jensen, ...

  13. Strong focus space charge

    DOEpatents

    Booth, Rex

    1981-01-01

    Strong focus space charge lens wherein a combination of current-carrying coils and charged electrodes form crossed magnetic and electric fields to focus charged particle beams.

  14. Focusing in Linear Accelerators

    DOE R&D Accomplishments

    McMillan, E. M.

    1950-08-24

    Review of the theory of focusing in linear accelerators with comments on the incompatibility of phase stability and first-order focusing in a simple accelerator.

  15. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  16. Forecast of transportation energy demand through the year 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Mintz, M.M.; Vyas, A.D.

    1991-04-01

    Since 1979, the Center for Transportation Research (CTR) at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has produced baseline projections of US transportation activity and energy demand. These projections and the methodologies used to compute them are documented in a series of reports and research papers. As the lastest in this series of projections, this report documents the assumptions, methodologies, and results of the most recent projection -- termed ANL-90N -- and compares those results with other forecasts from the current literature, as well as with the selection of earlier Argonne forecasts. This current forecast may be used as a baseline against which to analyze trends and evaluate existing and proposed energy conservation programs and as an illustration of how the Transportation Energy and Emission Modeling System (TEEMS) works. (TEEMS links disaggregate models to produce an aggregate forecast of transportation activity, energy use, and emissions). This report and the projections it contains were developed for the US Department of Energy's Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT). The projections are not completely comprehensive. Time and modeling effort have been focused on the major energy consumers -- automobiles, trucks, commercial aircraft, rail and waterborne freight carriers, and pipelines. Because buses, rail passengers services, and general aviation consume relatively little energy, they are projected in the aggregate, as other'' modes, and used primarily as scaling factors. These projections are also limited to direct energy consumption. Projections of indirect energy consumption, such as energy consumed in vehicle and equipment manufacturing, infrastructure, fuel refining, etc., were judged outside the scope of this effort. The document is organized into two complementary sections -- one discussing passenger transportation modes, and the other discussing freight transportation modes. 99 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

  17. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  18. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.

  19. Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.

    2011-10-01

    This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.

  20. Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Offshore Lubricants Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  1. Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Coal Fired Power Generation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  2. Flood Forecasting in River System Using ANFIS

    SciTech Connect

    Ullah, Nazrin; Choudhury, P.

    2010-10-26

    The aim of the present study is to investigate applicability of artificial intelligence techniques such as ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) in forecasting flood flow in a river system. The proposed technique combines the learning ability of neural network with the transparent linguistic representation of fuzzy system. The technique is applied to forecast discharge at a downstream station using flow information at various upstream stations. A total of three years data has been selected for the implementation of this model. ANFIS models with various input structures and membership functions are constructed, trained and tested to evaluate efficiency of the models. Statistical indices such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and Coefficient of Efficiency (CE) are used to evaluate performance of the ANFIS models in forecasting river flood. The values of the indices show that ANFIS model can accurately and reliably be used to forecast flood in a river system.

  3. ARM - CARES - Tracer Forecast for CARES

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    News & Press Backgrounder (PDF, 1.45MB) G-1 Aircraft Fact Sheet (PDF, 1.3MB) Contacts Rahul Zaveri, Lead Scientist Tracer Forecasts for CARES This webpage contains 72-hr...

  4. Text-Alternative Version LED Lighting Forecast

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    The DOE report Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications estimates the energy savings of LED white-light sources over the analysis period of 2013 to 2030....

  5. energy data + forecasting | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    energy data + forecasting Home FRED Description: Free Energy Database Tool on OpenEI This is an open source platform for assisting energy decision makers and policy makers in...

  6. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    17, 2012 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:05 PM on July 17, 2012 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Larry Markel, Cindy Taylor, Sam Vega, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on the minutes from the June 12, 2012 meeting. No HASQARD Focus Group members present stated any

  7. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    8, 2013 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:05 PM on June 18, 2013 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Glen Clark, Scot Fitzgerald, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Karl Pool, Chris Sutton, Amanda Tuttle, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on the minutes from the May 21, 2013 meeting. No HASQARD Focus Group members present

  8. Tritium Focus Group- INEL

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Presentation from the 34th Tritium Focus Group Meeting held in Idaho Falls, Idaho on September 23-25, 2014.

  9. Alternating phase focused linacs

    DOEpatents

    Swenson, Donald A. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1980-01-01

    A heavy particle linear accelerator employing rf fields for transverse and ongitudinal focusing as well as acceleration. Drift tube length and gap positions in a standing wave drift tube loaded structure are arranged so that particles are subject to acceleration and succession of focusing and defocusing forces which contain the beam without additional magnetic or electric focusing fields.

  10. Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

    SciTech Connect

    Brainard, James Robert

    2009-10-01

    This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.

  11. Funding Opportunity Announcement: Solar Forecasting 2 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Solar Forecasting 2 Funding Opportunity Announcement: Solar Forecasting 2 Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Number: DE-FOA-0001649 Funding Amount: $10 million Description The Solar Forecasting 2 funding program will support projects that enable grid operators to better forecast how much solar energy will be added to the grid and accelerate the integration of these forecasts into energy management systems used by grid operators and utility companies. These tools will enable grid

  12. Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.

    2014-05-01

    The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.

  13. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    SciTech Connect

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford`s past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D&D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers.

  14. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    3, 2016 The meeting was called to order by Jonathan Sanwald, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:05 PM on August 23, 2016 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Jonathan Sanwald (Mission Support Alliance (Mission Support Alliance (MSA)), Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Corporate Allocation Services, DOE-RL Support Contractor, Focus Group Secretary), Taffy Almeida (Battelle - Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)), Marcus Aranda (Wastren Advantage Inc. Wastren Hanford

  15. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    January 15, 2013 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:02 PM on January 15, 2013 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Glen Clark, Scot Fitzgerald, Larry Markel, Karl Pool, Dave St. John, Chris Sutton, Chris Thompson, Steve Trent, Amanda Tuttle and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on the minutes from the December 18, 2012 meeting. One issue

  16. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    22, 2015 The meeting was called to order by Cliff Watkins, HASQARD Focus Group Secretary at 2:05 PM on October 22, 2015 in Conference Room 328 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Jonathan Sanwald (Mission Support Alliance (MSA), Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Corporate Allocation Services, DOE-RL Support Contractor, Focus Group Secretary), Glen Clark (Washington River Protection Solution (WRPS)), Fred Dunhour (DOE-ORP), Joan Kessner (Washington Closure Hanford (WCH)), Karl Pool (Pacific

  17. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    6 The meeting was called to order by Jonathan Sanwald, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:10 PM on April 19, 2016 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Jonathan Sanwald (Mission Support Alliance (Mission Support Alliance (MSA)), Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Corporate Allocation Services, DOE-RL Support Contractor, Focus Group Secretary), Marcus Aranda (Wastren Advantage Inc. Wastren Hanford Laboratory (WHL)), Joe Archuleta (CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company

  18. Strategic Focus Areas

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Strategic Focus Areas Lockheed Martin on behalf of Sandia National Laboratories will consider grant requests that best support the Corporation's strategic focus areas and reflect effective leadership, fiscal responsibility and program success. Education: K-16 Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) programs that are focused on reducing the achievement gap. Lockheed Martin dedicates 50% of its support to STEM education programs & activities. Customer & Constituent Relations:

  19. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    6, 2012 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:04 PM on October 16, 2012 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Larry Markel, Mary McCormick-Barger, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Sutton, Steve Trent, Amanda Tuttle, Sam Vega, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. New personnel have joined the Focus Group since the last

  20. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    27, 2012 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:09 PM on November 27, 2012 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Mary McCormick-Barger, Steve Trent, and Rich Weiss. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on the minutes from the October 16, 2012 meeting. No HASQARD Focus Group members present stated any

  1. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    0, 2013 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:05 PM on August 20, 2013 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Taffy Almeida, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Joan Kessner, Steve Smith, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich asked if there were any comments on the minutes from the July 23, 2013 meeting. No Focus Group members stated they had

  2. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    5, 2014 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:10 PM on April 15, 2014 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Mary McCormick-Barger, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich asked if there were any comments on the minutes from the March 18, 2014 meeting. No Focus Group members stated they

  3. Focus on Energy Program

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Focus on Energy provides information, financial assistance, technical assistance and other services to residents, businesses, schools, institutions and local governments on energy efficiency and...

  4. FEMP Focus - June 2001

    SciTech Connect

    2001-06-01

    FEMP Focus is FEMP's bimonthly newsletter that promotes energy awareness, recognizes successes, and communicates information about saving energy and dollars to the federal community.

  5. Microfabricated particle focusing device

    DOEpatents

    Ravula, Surendra K.; Arrington, Christian L.; Sigman, Jennifer K.; Branch, Darren W.; Brener, Igal; Clem, Paul G.; James, Conrad D.; Hill, Martyn; Boltryk, Rosemary June

    2013-04-23

    A microfabricated particle focusing device comprises an acoustic portion to preconcentrate particles over large spatial dimensions into particle streams and a dielectrophoretic portion for finer particle focusing into single-file columns. The device can be used for high throughput assays for which it is necessary to isolate and investigate small bundles of particles and single particles.

  6. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.

  7. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Black, Jon; Tedesco, John

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  8. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    2 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:06 PM on June 12, 2012 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Shannan Johnson, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Karl Pool, Steve Smith, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Sutton, Cindy Taylor, Chris Thomson, Amanda Tuttle, Sam Vega, Rick Warriner and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on the

  9. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    1, 2012 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:10 PM on August 21, 2012 in an alternate Conference Room in 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Lynn Albin, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Steve Smith, Chris Sutton. Chris Thompson, Amanda Tuttle, and Rich Weiss. I. Because the meeting was scheduled to take place in Room 308 and a glitch in

  10. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    January 28, 2014 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:04 PM on January 28, 2014 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Joe Archuleta, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Joan Kessner, Mary McCormick-Barger, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Sutton, Chris Thompson, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich asked if there were any comments on

  11. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    8, 2014 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:05 PM on March 18, 2014 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Joe Archuleta, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Joan Kessner, Mary McCormick-Barger, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Rich Weiss, and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich asked if there were any comments on the minutes from the February 25, 2014

  12. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    0, 2014 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:05 PM on May 20, 2014 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Lynn Albin, Taffy Almeida, Joe Archuleta, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Shannan Johnson, Joan Kessner, Mary McCormick-Barger, Craig Perkins, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Sutton, Chris Thompson and Eric Wyse. I. Acknowledging the

  13. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    4 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:07 PM on June 12, 2014 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Joe Archuleta, Sara Champoux, Glen Clark, Jim Douglas, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Joan Kessner, Jan McCallum, Mary McCormick-Barger, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Acknowledging the presence of new and/or infrequent

  14. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    7, 2014 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:10 PM on June 17, 2014 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Focus Group Chair), Cliff Watkins (Focus Group Secretary), Robert Elkins, Shannan Johnson, Joan Kessner, Jan McCallum, Craig Perkins, Karl Pool, Chris Sutton and Rich Weiss. I. Because of the short time since the last meeting, Huei Meznarich stated that the minutes from the June 12, 2014 meeting have not yet

  15. Tritium Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    matters related to tritium. Contacts Mike Rogers (505) 665-2513 Email Chandra Savage Marsden (505) 664-0183 Email The Tritium Focus Group consists of participants from member...

  16. Focusing corner cube

    DOEpatents

    Monjes, J.A.

    1985-09-12

    This invention retortreflects and focuses a beam of light. The invention comprises a modified corner cube reflector wherein one reflective surface is planar, a second reflective surface is spherical, and the third reflective surface may be planar or convex cylindrical.

  17. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ... documents prior to their approval for use was approved by the Focus Group members present with no comments because it was language equivalent to NQA-1 language on the same subject. ...

  18. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ... The Focus Group discussed whether to have the same "level of review" for any changes or whether this applies to only "major" changes. Similar language exists in NQA-1-2008, Section ...

  19. Final focus test beam

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-03-01

    This report discusses the following: the Final Focus Test Beam Project; optical design; magnets; instrumentation; magnetic measurement and BPM calibration; mechanical alignment and stabilization; vacuum system; power supplies; control system; radiation shielding and personnel protection; infrastructure; and administration.

  20. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Elkins, Mary McCormick-Barger, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Sutton, Amanda Tuttle, Rick ... Noe'l Smith-Jackson stated that the HASQARD document is the work of the Focus Group not ...

  1. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    6, 2010 The meeting was called to order by Dave Crawford, Focus Group Chairman at 2:03 PM on November 16, 2010 in Conference Room 208 at 2425 Stevens. Those attending were: Dave Crawford (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Lynn Albin, Heather Anastos, Paula Ciszak, Glen Clark, Doug Duvon, Kathi Dunbar, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Huei Meznarich, Steve Smith, Chris Sutton, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Thompson, Eric Wyse. New members to the Focus Group were

  2. Planar-focusing cathodes.

    SciTech Connect

    Lewellen, J. W.; Noonan, J.; Accelerator Systems Division

    2005-01-01

    Conventional {pi}-mode rf photoinjectors typically use magnetic solenoids for emittance compensation. This provides independent focusing strength but can complicate rf power feed placement, introduce asymmetries (due to coil crossovers), and greatly increase the cost of the photoinjector. Cathode-region focusing can also provide for a form of emittance compensation. Typically this method strongly couples focusing strength to the field gradient on the cathode, however, and usually requires altering the longitudinal position of the cathode to change the focusing. We propose a new method for achieving cathode-region variable-strength focusing for emittance compensation. The new method reduces the coupling to the gradient on the cathode and does not require a change in the longitudinal position of the cathode. Expected performance for an S-band system is similar to conventional solenoid-based designs. This paper presents the results of rf cavity and beam dynamics simulations of the new design. We have proposed a method for performing emittance compensation using a cathode-region focusing scheme. This technique allows the focusing strength to be adjusted somewhat independently of the on-axis field strength. Beam dynamics calculations indicate performance should be comparable to presently in-use emittance compensation schemes, with a simpler configuration and fewer possibilities for emittance degradation due to the focusing optics. There are several potential difficulties with this approach, including cathode material selection, cathode heating, and peak fields in the gun. We hope to begin experimenting with a cathode of this type in the near future, and several possibilities exist for reducing the peak gradients to more acceptable levels.

  3. Tritium Focus Group Meeting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Fall 2015 Tritium Focus Group Meeting November 3 - 5, 2015 Meeting location: J.R. Oppenheimer Study Center TA 3, Building 207, Main Floor Technical Area 3 Map (pdf) Directions via Google Maps Meeting Information Tritium Focus Group Charter (pdf) Hotel Information Classified Session Information Los Alamos Restaurants (pdf) LANL Information Visiting Los Alamos Area Map Weather Contacts Mike Rogers (505) 665-2513 mrogers@lanl.gov Chandra Savage Marsden (505) 664-0183 chandra@lanl.gov

  4. Plutonium focus area

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    To ensure research and development programs focus on the most pressing environmental restoration and waste management problems at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Assistant Secretary for the Office of Environmental Management (EM) established a working group in August 1993 to implement a new approach to research and technology development. As part of this new approach, EM developed a management structure and principles that led to the creation of specific Focus Areas. These organizations were designed to focus the scientific and technical talent throughout DOE and the national scientific community on the major environmental restoration and waste management problems facing DOE. The Focus Area approach provides the framework for intersite cooperation and leveraging of resources on common problems. After the original establishment of five major Focus Areas within the Office of Technology Development (EM-50, now called the Office of Science and Technology), the Nuclear Materials Stabilization Task Group (EM-66) followed the structure already in place in EM-50 and chartered the Plutonium Focus Area (PFA). The following information outlines the scope and mission of the EM, EM-60, and EM-66 organizations as related to the PFA organizational structure.

  5. The Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ... up-ramp reserves c down cost in MWh of down-ramp reserves R down MW range for ... power forecasting and the increased gas usage that comes with less-accurate forecasting. ...

  6. DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights | Department of Energy

    Energy Saver

    Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights DOE Taking Wind Forecasting to New Heights May 18, 2015 - 3:24pm Addthis A 2013 study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) by ...

  7. Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM ...

  8. PBL FY 2003 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    the rate period (i.e., FY 2002-2006), a forecast of that end-of-year Accumulated Net Revenue (ANR) will be completed. If the ANR at the end of the forecast year falls below the...

  9. Final Report on California Regional Wind Energy Forecasting Project:Application of NARAC Wind Prediction System

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H S

    2005-07-26

    direction, using its wind tunnel facility at the windmill farm at the Altamont Pass. The main objective of LLNL's involvement is to provide UC-Davis with improved wind forecasts to drive the parameterization scheme of turbine power curves developed from the wind tunnel facility. Another objective of LLNL's effort is to support the windmill farm operation with real-time wind forecasts for the effective energy management. The forecast skill in capturing the situation to meet the cut-in and cutout speed of given turbines would help reduce the operation cost in low and strong wind scenarios, respectively. The main focus of this report is to evaluate the wind forecast errors of LLNL's three-dimensional real-time weather forecast model at the location with the complex terrain. The assessment of weather forecast accuracy would help quantify the source of wind energy forecast errors from the atmospheric forecast model and/or wind-tunnel module for further improvement in the wind energy forecasting system.

  10. Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.

    SciTech Connect

    Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2010-04-01

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.

  11. Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets

    SciTech Connect

    Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.

    2010-04-15

    Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)

  12. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and other stakeholders better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at the desired locations in the United States. More accurate solar

  13. Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast | OpenEI...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Combined Heat And Power Installation Market Forecast Home There are currently no posts in this category. Syndicate...

  14. ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting ANL Software Improves Wind Power Forecasting May 1, 2012 - 3:19pm Addthis This is an excerpt from the Second Quarter 2012 edition of the Wind Program R&D Newsletter. Since 2008, Argonne National Laboratory and INESC TEC (formerly INESC Porto) have conducted a research project to improve wind power forecasting and better use of forecasting in electricity markets. One of the main results from the project is ARGUS PRIMA (PRediction Intelligent

  15. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2011-07-01

    This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.

  16. Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions July 20, 2011 - 6:30pm Addthis Stan Calvert Wind Systems Integration Team Lead, Wind & Water Power Program What does this project do? It will increase the accuracy of weather forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind power production. Accurate weather forecasts are critical

  17. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  19. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-10-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  20. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff; Cline, Joel; Bianco, L.; Olson, J.; Djalaova, I.; Sheridan, L.; Ahlstrom, M.; Manobianco, J.; Zack, J.; Carley, J.; Benjamin, S.; Coulter, R. L.; Berg, Larry K.; Mirocha, Jeff D.; Clawson, K.; Natenberg, E.; Marquis, M.

    2015-10-30

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collection of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.

  1. Sagittal focusing Laue monochromator

    DOEpatents

    Zhong; Zhong , Hanson; Jonathan , Hastings; Jerome , Kao; Chi-Chang , Lenhard; Anthony , Siddons; David Peter , Zhong; Hui

    2009-03-24

    An x-ray focusing device generally includes a slide pivotable about a pivot point defined at a forward end thereof, a rail unit fixed with respect to the pivotable slide, a forward crystal for focusing x-rays disposed at the forward end of the pivotable slide and a rearward crystal for focusing x-rays movably coupled to the pivotable slide and the fixed rail unit at a distance rearward from the forward crystal. The forward and rearward crystals define reciprocal angles of incidence with respect to the pivot point, wherein pivoting of the slide about the pivot point changes the incidence angles of the forward and rearward crystals while simultaneously changing the distance between the forward and rearward crystals.

  2. Decontamination & decommissioning focus area

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    In January 1994, the US Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management (DOE EM) formally introduced its new approach to managing DOE`s environmental research and technology development activities. The goal of the new approach is to conduct research and development in critical areas of interest to DOE, utilizing the best talent in the Department and in the national science community. To facilitate this solutions-oriented approach, the Office of Science and Technology (EM-50, formerly the Office of Technology Development) formed five Focus AReas to stimulate the required basic research, development, and demonstration efforts to seek new, innovative cleanup methods. In February 1995, EM-50 selected the DOE Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) to lead implementation of one of these Focus Areas: the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D & D) Focus Area.

  3. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    20, 2012 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:05 PM on March 20, 2012 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Scot Fitzgerald, Larry Markel, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Sutton, Amanda Tuttle, Sam Vega, Rick Warriner and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on the minutes from the February 21, 2012 meeting. No HASQARD Focus Group members present

  4. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  5. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  6. Focused ion beam system

    DOEpatents

    Leung, Ka-Ngo; Gough, Richard A.; Ji, Qing; Lee, Yung-Hee Yvette

    1999-01-01

    A focused ion beam (FIB) system produces a final beam spot size down to 0.1 .mu.m or less and an ion beam output current on the order of microamps. The FIB system increases ion source brightness by properly configuring the first (plasma) and second (extraction) electrodes. The first electrode is configured to have a high aperture diameter to electrode thickness aspect ratio. Additional accelerator and focusing electrodes are used to produce the final beam. As few as five electrodes can be used, providing a very compact FIB system with a length down to only 20 mm. Multibeamlet arrangements with a single ion source can be produced to increase throughput. The FIB system can be used for nanolithography and doping applications for fabrication of semiconductor devices with minimum feature sizes of 0.1 .mu.m or less.

  7. Focused ion beam system

    DOEpatents

    Leung, K.; Gough, R.A.; Ji, Q.; Lee, Y.Y.

    1999-08-31

    A focused ion beam (FIB) system produces a final beam spot size down to 0.1 {mu}m or less and an ion beam output current on the order of microamps. The FIB system increases ion source brightness by properly configuring the first (plasma) and second (extraction) electrodes. The first electrode is configured to have a high aperture diameter to electrode thickness aspect ratio. Additional accelerator and focusing electrodes are used to produce the final beam. As few as five electrodes can be used, providing a very compact FIB system with a length down to only 20 mm. Multibeamlet arrangements with a single ion source can be produced to increase throughput. The FIB system can be used for nanolithography and doping applications for fabrication of semiconductor devices with minimum feature sizes of 0.1 m or less. 13 figs.

  8. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    July 20, 2010 The meeting was called to order by Dave Crawford, Focus Group Chairman, at 2:05 PM on July 20, 2010 in Conference Room 208 at 2425 Stevens. Those attending were: Dave Crawford (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Taffy Almeida, Heather Anastos, Mike Barnes, Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Cindy English, Al Hawkins, Jim Jewett, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Huei Meznarich, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Andrew Stevens, Genesis Thomas, Chris Thompson, Rich

  9. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    8, 2011 The meeting was called to order by Dave Crawford, Focus Group Chairman at 2:08 PM on January 18, 2011 in Conference Room 208 at 2425 Stevens. Those attending were: Dave Crawford (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Heather Anastos, Paula Ciszak, Jim Conca, Scott Conley, Glen Clark, Scott Conley, Jim Douglas, Scot Fitzgerald, Stewart Huggins, Jim Jewett, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Huei Meznarich, Karl Pool, Dave Shea, Steve Smith, Chris Sutton, Amanda Tuttle, Rich Weiss, Eric Wyse. Dave

  10. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    1 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich who was acting for the absent Dave Crawford, Focus Group Chairman at 2:04 PM on April 19, 2011 in Conference Room 208 at 2425 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Acting Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Taffy Almeida, Heather Anastos, Courtney Blanchard, Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Kathie Dunbar, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Greg Holte, Joan Kessner, Noe'l Smith- Jackson, Chris Sutton, Cindy Taylor, Chris Thompson, Amanda Tuttle,

  11. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    8, 2011 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:04 PM on November 8, 2011 in Conference Room 126 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Lynn Albin, Heather Anastos, Courtney Blanchard, Jeff Cheadle, Scot Fitzgerald, Jim Jewett, Shannan Johnson, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Steve Smith, Chris Sutton, Cindy Taylor, Chris Thompson, Amanda Tuttle and Eric

  12. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    7, 2012 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:04 PM on January 17, 2012 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Mike Barnes, Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Scot Fitzgerald, Shannan Johnson, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Cindy Taylor, Chris Thompson, Amanda Tuttle, Sam Vega, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on the minutes from the December 13, 2011 meeting.

  13. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    1, 2012 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:02 PM on February 21, 2012 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Lynn Albin, Taffy Almeida, Courtney Blanchard, Glen Clark, Scot Fitzgerald, Shannan Johnson, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Larry Markel, Karl Pool, Steve Smith, Cindy Taylor, Amanda Tuttle, Sam Vega, Rick Warriner, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on

  14. Strategic Focus Points

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Focus Points June 2011 1. Establish the human capital and organizational foundation to create a high-performing organization. 2. Implement a cyber risk-management and incident response program that ensures effective security of Federal and M&O networks, provides appropriate flexibility, and meets legal requirements and OMB expectations. 3. Improve IT Services (EITS) into a best-in-class provider from both a technical and business perspective. 4. Implement and institutionalize a reformed,

  15. Subsurface contaminants focus area

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    The US Department of Enregy (DOE) Subsurface Contaminants Focus Area is developing technologies to address environmental problems associated with hazardous and radioactive contaminants in soil and groundwater that exist throughout the DOE complex, including radionuclides, heavy metals; and dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs). More than 5,700 known DOE groundwater plumes have contaminated over 600 billion gallons of water and 200 million cubic meters of soil. Migration of these plumes threatens local and regional water sources, and in some cases has already adversely impacted off-site rsources. In addition, the Subsurface Contaminants Focus Area is responsible for supplying technologies for the remediation of numerous landfills at DOE facilities. These landfills are estimated to contain over 3 million cubic meters of radioactive and hazardous buried Technology developed within this specialty area will provide efective methods to contain contaminant plumes and new or alternative technologies for development of in situ technologies to minimize waste disposal costs and potential worker exposure by treating plumes in place. While addressing contaminant plumes emanating from DOE landfills, the Subsurface Contaminants Focus Area is also working to develop new or alternative technologies for the in situ stabilization, and nonintrusive characterization of these disposal sites.

  16. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  17. A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.

    SciTech Connect

    Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.

    2011-02-23

    The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.

  18. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Lehman, Brad; Simmons, Joseph; Campos, Edwin; Banunarayanan, Venkat

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.

  19. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    18, 2010 The meeting was called to order by Don Hart, Focus Group Chairman, at 2:00 PM on February 18, 2010 in Conference Room 199 at 2430 Stevens. Those attending were: Lynn Albin, Taffy Almeida, Heather Anastos, Glen Clark, Doug Duvon, Kathi Dunbar, Robert Elkins, Cindy English, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Huei Meznarich, Karl Pool, Steve Smith, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Andrew Stevens, Chris Sutton, Chris Thompson, Wendy Thompson, Rich Weis, and Cliff Watkins. I. Because new

  20. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    August 24, 2010 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich acting for Dave Crawford, Focus Group Chairman who was absent, at 2:10 PM on August 24, 2010 in Conference Room 208 at 2425 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Acting Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Lynn Albin, Taffy Almeida, Heather Anastos, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Jim Jewett, Greg Holte, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Huei Meznarich, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Sutton, Cindy Taylor,

  1. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    0 The meeting was called to order by Dave Crawford, Focus Group Chairman at 2:10 PM on December 13, 2010 in Conference Room 199 at 2430 Stevens. Those attending were: Dave Crawford (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Larry Markel, Huei Meznarich, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Dave Shea, Chris Sutton, Cindy Taylor, Chris Thompson, Rich Weiss, Eric Wyse. I. Dave Crawford requested approval of the minutes from the November 16

  2. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    16, 2011 The meeting was called to order by Dave Crawford, HASQARD Focus Group Chairman at 2:07 PM on August 16, 2011 in Conference Room 208 at 2425 Stevens. Those attending were: (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Lynn Albin, Heather Anastos, Jeff Cheadle, Kathi Dunbar, Robert Elkins, Scot Fitzgerald, Jim Jewett, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Huei Meznarich, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Cindy Taylor, Amanda Tuttle, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Dave Crawford requested comments on the

  3. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    4, 2011 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:04 PM on October 4, 2011 in Conference Room 208 at 2425 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Lynn Albin, Heather Anastos, Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Scot Fitzgerald, Shannan Johnson, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Karl Pool, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Dave Shea, Cindy Taylor, Amanda Tuttle, Mary Ryan, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested

  4. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    1 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:04 PM on December 13, 2011 in Conference Room 126 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Lynn Albin, Heather Anastos, Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Scot Fitzgerald, Shannan Johnson, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Joan Kessner, Karl Pool, Dave St. John, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Chris Sutton, Cindy Taylor, Amanda Tuttle, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments

  5. HASQARD Focus Group

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    7, 2012 The meeting was called to order by Huei Meznarich, HASQARD Focus Group Chair at 2:06 PM on April 17, 2012 in Conference Room 308 at 2420 Stevens. Those attending were: Huei Meznarich (Chair), Cliff Watkins (Secretary), Lynn Albin, Taffy Almeida, Jeff Cheadle, Glen Clark, Scot Fitzgerald, Kris Kuhl-Klinger, Joan Kessner, Larry Markel, Noe'l Smith-Jackson, Cindy Taylor, Amanda Tuttle, Rich Weiss and Eric Wyse. I. Huei Meznarich requested comments on the minutes from the March 20, 2012

  6. Dielectrophoretic columnar focusing device

    DOEpatents

    James, Conrad D. (Albuquerque, NM); Galambos, Paul C. (Albuquerque, NM); Derzon, Mark S. (Tijeras, NM)

    2010-05-11

    A dielectrophoretic columnar focusing device uses interdigitated microelectrodes to provide a spatially non-uniform electric field in a fluid that generates a dipole within particles in the fluid. The electric field causes the particles to either be attracted to or repelled from regions where the electric field gradient is large, depending on whether the particles are more or less polarizable than the fluid. The particles can thereby be forced into well defined stable paths along the interdigitated microelectrodes. The device can be used for flow cytometry, particle control, and other process applications, including cell counting or other types of particle counting, and for separations in material control.

  7. Transverse field focused system

    DOEpatents

    Anderson, Oscar A.

    1986-01-01

    A transverse field focused (TFF) system for transport or acceleration of an intense sheet beam of negative ions in which a serial arrangement of a plurality of pairs of concentric cylindrical-arc electrodes is provided. Acceleration of the sheet beam can be achieved by progressively increasing the mean electrode voltage of successive electrode pairs. Because the beam is curved by the electrodes, the system can be designed to transport the beam through a maze passage which is baffled to prevent line of sight therethrough. Edge containment of the beam can be achieved by shaping the side edges of the electrodes to produce an electric force vector directed inwardly from the electrode edges.

  8. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.

    2013-10-01

    Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.

  9. Wind speed forecasting in the central California wind resource area

    SciTech Connect

    McCarthy, E.F.

    1997-12-31

    A wind speed forecasting program was implemented in the summer seasons of 1985 - 87 in the Central California Wind Resource Area (WRA). The forecasting program is designed to use either meteorological observations from the WRA and local upper air observations or upper air observations alone to predict the daily average windspeed at two locations. Forecasts are made each morning at 6 AM and are valid for a 24 hour period. Ease of use is a hallmark of the program as the daily forecast can be made using data entered into a programmable HP calculator. The forecasting program was the first step in a process to examine whether the electrical energy output of an entire wind power generation facility or defined subsections of the same facility could be predicted up to 24 hours in advance. Analysis of the results of the summer season program using standard forecast verification techniques show the program has skill over persistence and climatology.

  10. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf] campaign was scheduled to take place from 15 July

  11. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    (BNL) Field Campaign Report (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) Field Campaign Report The Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) [http://www.arm.gov/campaigns/osc2013rwpcf] campaign was scheduled to take place from 15 July

  12. Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    in Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain April 4, 2014 - 9:47am Addthis On April 4, 2014 the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $2.5 million funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex

  13. Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report.pdf (15.76 MB) More Documents & Publications QER - Comment of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) 1 QER - Comment of Canadian Hydropower Association Team roster: Dan Paikowsky, Management; Christian Bain, Entrepreneurship; Noah Meunier, Mechanical Engineering &

  14. DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel DOE Benefits Forecasts: Report of the External Peer Review Panel A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts. Report of the External Peer Review Panel (777.84 KB) More Documents & Publications Industrial Technologies Funding Profile by Subprogram Survey of Emissions Models for Distributed Combined Heat and Power

  15. Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Complex Terrain | Department of Energy Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain February 12, 2014 - 10:47am Addthis On February 11, 2014 the Wind Program announced a Notice of Intent to issue a funding opportunity entitled "Wind Forecasting Improvement Project in Complex Terrain." By researching the physical processes that take place in complex terrain, this funding would improve

  16. Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Validation of Global Weather Forecast and Climate Models Over the North Slope of Alaska Xie, Shaocheng Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Klein, Stephen Lawrence Livermore ...

  17. DOE Publishes New Forecast of Energy Savings from LED Lighting...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Addthis Related Articles DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting DOE Publishes Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program ...

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  19. NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Data and Resources

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Data and Resources National Solar Radiation Database NREL resource assessment and forecasting research information is available from the following sources. Renewable Resource Data ...

  20. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  1. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-10-02

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  2. DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    DOE Announces Webinars on Solar Forecasting Metrics, the DOE ... from adopting the latest energy efficiency and renewable ... to liquids technology, advantages of using natural gas, ...

  3. Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    forecasts for solar-energy applications and 2) to provide vertical profiling capabilities for the study of dynamics (i.e., vertical velocity) and hydrometeors in winter storms. ...

  4. FY 2004 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation (PBL) Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  5. PBL FY 2003 Third Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    2003 Bonneville Power Administration Power Business Line Generation Accumulated Net Revenue Forecast for Financial-Based Cost Recovery Adjustment Clause (FB CRAC) and Safety-Net...

  6. Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity...

    Energy Saver

    Through the Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting Funding Opportunity, DOE is funding solar projects that are helping utilities, grid operators, solar power plant owners, and ...

  7. Process Intensification - Chemical Sector Focus

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Process Intensification - Chemical Sector Focus 1 Technology Assessment 2 Contents 3 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 4 2. Technology Assessment and Potential ................................................................................................................. 5 5 2.1 Chemical Industry Focus

  8. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  9. Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

    SciTech Connect

    Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.

    2010-05-01

    Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

  10. Focus Group | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Outreach Forums » Focus Group and Work Group Activities » Focus Group Focus Group The Focus Group was formed in March 2007 to initiate dialogue and interface with labor unions, DOE Program Secretarial Offices, and stakeholders in areas of mutual interest and concern related to health, safety, security, and the environment. Meeting Documents Available for Download November 13, 2012 Work Group Leadership Meetings: Transition Elements This Focus Group Work Group telecom was held with the Work

  11. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations | Department of Energy The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The Wind Forecast Improvement

  12. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  13. 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc 3TIER Jump to: navigation, search Name: 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group Inc (3TIER) Place: Seattle, Washington Zip: 98121 Sector: Renewable...

  14. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    SciTech Connect

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are

  15. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  16. Focus Areas | Critical Materials Institute

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Focus Areas FA 1: Diversifying Supply FA 2: Developing Substitutes FA 3: Improving Reuse and Recycling FA 4: Crosscutting Research...

  17. Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

    SciTech Connect

    Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J.

    2011-12-06

    Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

  18. U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris

    2005-07-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.

  19. FOCUS

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    (given the uncertainties we are likely to face in coming years, such as the evolving electricity market, changes in the electricity policy landscape and technology...

  20. Macroeconomic Activity Module

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    of employment by industry is industrial output. Both current and lagged output values enter in the employment specification, reflecting the tendency of firms to hire employees in...

  1. Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

    ScienceCinema

    Gonzalez, Frank

    2016-07-12

    After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

  2. Wind Energy Technology Trends: Comparing and Contrasting Recent Cost and Performance Forecasts (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Lantz, E.; Hand, M.

    2010-05-01

    Poster depicts wind energy technology trends, comparing and contrasting recent cost and performance forecasts.

  3. Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Development and Demonstration of Advanced Forecasting, Power and Environmental Planning and Management Tools and Best Practices

  4. HASQARD Focus Group - Hanford Site

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Contracting Wastren Advantage, Inc. HASQARD Focus Group Contracting ORP Contracts and Procurements RL Contracts and Procurements CH2M HILL Plateau Remediation Company Mission Support Alliance Washington Closure Hanford HPM Corporation (HPMC) Wastren Advantage, Inc. Analytical Services HASQARD Focus Group Bechtel National, Inc. Washington River Protection Solutions HASQARD Focus Group Email Email Page | Print Print Page | Text Increase Font Size Decrease Font Size HASQARD Document HASQARD

  5. Focus Areas | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Focus Areas Focus Areas Safety With this focus on cleanup completion and risk reducing results, safety still remains the utmost priority. EM will continue to maintain and demand the highest safety performance. All workers deserve to go home as healthy as they were when they came to the job in the morning. There is no schedule or milestone worth any injury to the work force. Project Management EM is increasing its concentration on project management to improve its overall performance toward

  6. Sector trends and driving forces of global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions: focus in industry and buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Price, Lynn; Worrell, Ernst; Khrushch, Marta

    1999-09-01

    Disaggregation of sectoral energy use and greenhouse gas emissions trends reveals striking differences between sectors and regions of the world. Understanding key driving forces in the energy end-use sectors provides insights for development of projections of future greenhouse gas emissions. This report examines global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon emissions in the industrial, buildings, transport, and agriculture sectors, with a more detailed focus on industry and buildings. Activity and economic drivers as well as trends in energy and carbon intensity are evaluated. The authors show that macro-economic indicators, such as GDP, are insufficient for comprehending trends and driving forces at the sectoral level. These indicators need to be supplemented with sector-specific information for a more complete understanding of future energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

  7. Focus Series | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Focus Series Focus Series bbnp_focus_series_cew_9-2-14.jpg On-Bill Financing Brings Lenders and Homeowners on Board Read how Clean Energy Works' partnership with a nonprofit community development financial institution resulted in an unprecedented number of upgrades in a short period of time. July 2014 bbnp_focus_series_62014.jpg Program Finds Community "Readiness" is the Key to More Retrofits Read how BetterBuildings for Michigan facilitated more than 11,000 home energy upgrades using

  8. Solar Trackers Market Forecast | OpenEI Community

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Solar Trackers Market Forecast Home John55364's picture Submitted by John55364(100) Contributor 12 May, 2015 - 03:54 Solar Trackers Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share,...

  9. Energy Forecasting Framework and Emissions Consensus Tool (EFFECT...

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Tool (EFFECT) EFFECT is an open, Excel-based modeling tool used to forecast greenhouse gas emissions from a range of development scenarios at the regional and national levels....

  10. Value of Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Sharp, J.; Margulis, M.; Mcreavy, D.

    2015-02-01

    This report summarizes an assessment of improved short-term wind power forecasting in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) market and provides a quantification of its potential value.

  11. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  12. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications compares the annual lighting energy consumption in the U.S. with and ...

  13. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    SciTech Connect

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  14. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) sponsored research project whose overarching goals are to improve the accuracy of short-term wind ...

  15. 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HP IENERGY Office of Science DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler ... M Jensen et al., March 2016, DOESC-ARM-15-024 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting ...

  16. PBL FY 2002 Second Quarter Review Forecast of Generation Accumulated...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Slice true-ups, and actual expense levels. Any variation of these can change the net revenue situation. FY 2002 Forecasted Second Quarter Results 170 (418) FY 2002 Unaudited...

  17. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    Reports and Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  18. Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes Expert Panel: Forecast Future Demand for Medical Isotopes The Expert Panel has concluded that the Department of Energy and National Institutes of Health must develop the capability to produce a diverse supply of radioisotopes for medical use in quantities sufficient to support research and clinical activities. Such a capability would prevent shortages of isotopes, reduce American dependence on foreign radionuclide sources and

  19. Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 Energy Department Forecasts Geothermal Achievements in 2015 The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector, including Jay Nathwani, Acting Director of the Energy Department's Geothermal Technologies Office. Nathwani shared achievements and challenges in the program's technical portfolio. The 40th annual Stanford Geothermal Workshop in January featured speakers in the geothermal sector,

  20. Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change Study forecasts disappearance of conifers due to climate change New results, reported in a paper released today in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggest that global models may underestimate predictions of forest death. December 21, 2015 Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is killing trees with PBS NewsHour reporter Miles O'Brien. Los Alamos scientist Nate McDowell discusses how climate change is

  1. 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Laboratory (Technical Report) | SciTech Connect 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory Citation Details In-Document Search Title: 915-MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at Brookhaven National Laboratory When considering the amount of shortwave radiation incident on a photovoltaic solar array and, therefore, the amount and stability of the energy output from the system, clouds represent the greatest source of short-term (i.e., scale of minutes to

  2. Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in

    Energy Saver

    Solar Energy | Department of Energy Soft Costs » Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Project Profile: Forecasting and Influencing Technological Progress in Solar Energy Logos of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Arizona State University, and the University of Oxford. -- This project is inactive -- The University of North Carolina at Charlotte, along with their partners at Arizona State University and the University of Oxford,

  3. Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

    2005-09-26

    Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over the 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.

  4. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast characteristics summary. Volumes 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect

    Templeton, K.J.

    1996-05-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the physical waste forms, hazardous waste constituents, and radionuclides of the waste expected to be shipped to the CWC from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site (assumed to extend to 2070). In previous years, forecast data has been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to two previous reports: the more detailed report on waste volumes, WHC-EP-0900, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary and the report on expected containers, WHC-EP-0903, FY1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Container Summary. All three documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on two main characteristics: the physical waste forms and hazardous waste constituents of low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major generators for each waste category and waste characteristic are also discussed. The characteristics of low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A. In addition, information on radionuclides present in the waste is provided in Appendix B. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste is expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on

  5. Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

    SciTech Connect

    Monteiro, C.; Bessa, R.; Miranda, V.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Conzelmann, G.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto

    2009-11-20

    Many countries and regions are introducing policies aimed at reducing the environmental footprint from the energy sector and increasing the use of renewable energy. In the United States, a number of initiatives have been taken at the state level, from renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and renewable energy certificates (RECs), to regional greenhouse gas emission control schemes. Within the U.S. Federal government, new energy and environmental policies and goals are also being crafted, and these are likely to increase the use of renewable energy substantially. The European Union is pursuing implementation of its ambitious 20/20/20 targets, which aim (by 2020) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (as compared to 1990), increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and reduce the overall energy consumption by 20% through energy efficiency. With the current focus on energy and the environment, efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system is becoming increasingly important. In a recent report, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) describes a model-based scenario, in which wind energy provides 20% of the U.S. electricity demand in 2030. The report discusses a set of technical and economic challenges that have to be overcome for this scenario to unfold. In Europe, several countries already have a high penetration of wind power (i.e., in the range of 7 to 20% of electricity consumption in countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Denmark). The rapid growth in installed wind power capacity is expected to continue in the United States as well as in Europe. A large-scale introduction of wind power causes a number of challenges for electricity market and power system operators who will have to deal with the variability and uncertainty in wind power generation when making their scheduling and dispatch decisions. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is frequently identified as an important tool to address the variability and

  6. Interpolating Low Time-Resolution Forecast Data

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2015-11-03

    Methodology that interpolates low time-resolution data (e.g., hourly) to high time-resolution (e.g., minutely) with variability patterns extracted from historical records. Magnitude of the variability inserted into the low timeresolution data can be adjusted according to the installed capacity represented by the low time-resolution data compared to that by historical records. This approach enables detailed analysis of the impacts from wind and solar on power system intra-hour operations and balancing reserve requirements even with only hourlymore » data. It also allows convenient creation of high resolution wind or solar generation data with various degree of variability to investigate their operational impacts. The methodology comprises of the following steps: 1. Smooth the historical data (set A) with an appropriate window length l to get its trend (set B); l can be a fraction of an hour (e.g., 15 minutes) or longer than an hour, of which the length of the variability patterns will be; 2. Extract the variable component (set C) of historical data by subtracting the smooth trend from it, i.e. set C = set A – set B 3. For each window length l of the variable component data set, find the average value x (will call it base component) of the corresponding window of the historical data set; 4. Define a series of segments (set D) that the values of data will be grouped into, e.g. (0, 0.1), (0.1, 0.2), …, (0.9, 1.0) after normalization; Link each variability pattern to a data segment based on its corresponding base component x; after this step, each data segment should be linked to multiple variability patterns after this step; 5. Use spline function to interpolate the low time-resolution forecast data (set E) to become a high time-resolution smooth curve (set F); 6. Based on the window length l , calculate the average value y in each window length of set F; find the data segment that y belongs to; then randomly select one of the variability patterns linked to this

  7. Compact electron beam focusing column

    SciTech Connect

    Persaud, Arun; Leung, Ka-Ngo; Reijonen, Jani

    2001-07-13

    A novel design for an electron beam focusing column has been developed at LBNL. The design is based on a low-energy spread multicusp plasma source which is used as a cathode for electron beam production. The focusing column is 10 mm in length. The electron beam is focused by means of electrostatic fields. The column is designed for a maximum voltage of 50 kV. Simulations of the electron trajectories have been performed by using the 2-D simulation code IGUN and EGUN. The electron temperature has also been incorporated into the simulations. The electron beam simulations, column design and fabrication will be discussed in this presentation.

  8. AVLIS: a technical and economic forecast

    SciTech Connect

    Davis, J.I.; Spaeth, M.L.

    1986-01-01

    The AVLIS process has intrinsically large isotopic selectivity and hence high separative capacity per module. The critical components essential to achieving the high production rates represent a small fraction (approx.10%) of the total capital cost of a production facility, and the reference production designs are based on frequent replacement of these components. The specifications for replacement frequencies in a plant are conservative with respect to our expectations; it is reasonable to expect that, as the plant is operated, the specifications will be exceeded and production costs will continue to fall. Major improvements in separator production rates and laser system efficiencies (approx.power) are expected to occur as a natural evolution in component improvements. With respect to the reference design, such improvements have only marginal economic value, but given the exigencies of moving from engineering demonstration to production operations, we continue to pursue these improvements in order to offset any unforeseen cost increases. Thus, our technical and economic forecasts for the AVLIS process remain very positive. The near-term challenge is to obtain stable funding and a commitment to bring the process to full production conditions within the next five years. If the funding and commitment are not maintained, the team will disperse and the know-how will be lost before it can be translated into production operations. The motivation to preserve the option for low-cost AVLIS SWU production is integrally tied to the motivation to maintain a competitive nuclear option. The US industry can certainly survive without AVLIS, but our tradition as technology leader in the industry will certainly be lost.

  9. Simulations of neutralized final focus

    SciTech Connect

    Welch, D.R.; Rose, D.V.; Genoni, T.C.; Yu, S.S.; Barnard, J.J.

    2005-01-18

    In order to drive an inertial fusion target or study high energy density physics with heavy ion beams, the beam radius must be focused to < 3 mm and the pulse length must be compressed to < 10 ns. The conventional scheme for temporal pulse compression makes use of an increasing ion velocity to compress the beam as it drifts and beam space charge to stagnate the compression before final focus. Beam compression in a neutralizing plasma does not require stagnation of the compression, enabling a more robust method. The final pulse shape at the target can be programmed by an applied velocity tilt. In this paper, neutralized drift compression is investigated. The sensitivity of the compression and focusing to beam momentum spread, plasma, and magnetic field conditions is studied with realistic driver examples. Using the 3D particle-in-cell code, we examine issues associated with self-field generation, stability, and vacuum-neutralized transport transition and focusing.

  10. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are appliedmore » to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.« less

  11. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia

    SciTech Connect

    Hickmann, Kyle S.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Priedhorsky, Reid; Generous, Nicholas; Hyman, James M.; Deshpande, Alina; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Salathé, Marcel

    2015-05-14

    Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.

  12. Hydrogen Strategic Focus for Hawaii

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    @Scale Stakeholder Panel Session 12 July 2016 Mitch Ewan HNEI Hydrogen Systems Program Manager Strategic Focus for Hawaii (H2)  Demonstrate cost effective infrastructure to produce, distribute, and dispense hydrogen;  Focus on fleet vehicles starting with public transportation & county trucks;  Central fueling - 30 kg per day per bus;  Public benefit - tax dollars support public transportation needs;  Industry will take care of the vehicles;  Support early heavy users of

  13. Use of Data Denial Experiments to Evaluate ESA Forecast Sensitivity Patterns

    SciTech Connect

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E J; Knowe, G V; Manobianco, J; Waight, K; Hanley, D; Kamath, C

    2011-09-13

    The overall goal of this multi-phased research project known as WindSENSE is to develop an observation system deployment strategy that would improve wind power generation forecasts. The objective of the deployment strategy is to produce the maximum benefit for 1- to 6-hour ahead forecasts of wind speed at hub-height ({approx}80 m). In this phase of the project the focus is on the Mid-Columbia Basin region which encompasses the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wind generation area shown in Figure 1 that includes Klondike, Stateline, and Hopkins Ridge wind plants. The Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach uses data generated by a set (ensemble) of perturbed numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations for a sample time period to statistically diagnose the sensitivity of a specified forecast variable (metric) for a target location to parameters at other locations and prior times referred to as the initial condition (IC) or state variables. The ESA approach was tested on the large-scale atmospheric prediction problem by Ancell and Hakim 2007 and Torn and Hakim 2008. ESA was adapted and applied at the mesoscale by Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) to the Tehachapi Pass, CA (warm and cools seasons) and Mid-Colombia Basin (warm season only) wind generation regions. In order to apply the ESA approach at the resolution needed at the mesoscale, Zack et al. (2010a, b, and c) developed the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA). MOOA uses a multivariate regression on a few select IC parameters at one location to determine the incremental improvement of measuring multiple variables (representative of the IC parameters) at various locations. MOOA also determines how much information from each IC parameter contributes to the change in the metric variable at the target location. The Zack et al. studies (2010a, b, and c), demonstrated that forecast sensitivity can be characterized by well-defined, localized patterns for a number of IC variables such as 80-m

  14. Survey of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: August 2011 - June 2012

    SciTech Connect

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2012-04-01

    This report surveyed Western Interconnection Balancing Authorities regarding their implementation of variable generation forecasting, the lessons learned to date, and recommendations they would offer to other Balancing Authorities who are considering variable generation forecasting. Our survey found that variable generation forecasting is at an early implementation stage in the West. Eight of the eleven Balancing Authorities interviewed began forecasting in 2008 or later. It also appears that less than one-half of the Balancing Authorities in the West are currently utilizing variable generation forecasting, suggesting that more Balancing Authorities in the West will engage in variable generation forecasting should more variable generation capacity be added.

  15. Magnetically focused liquid drop radiator

    DOEpatents

    Botts, Thomas E. (Fairfax, VA); Powell, James R. (Shoreham, NY); Lenard, Roger (Redondo Beach, CA)

    1986-01-01

    A magnetically focused liquid drop radiator for application in rejecting rgy from a spacecraft, characterized by a magnetizable liquid or slurry disposed in operative relationship within the liquid droplet generator and its fluid delivery system, in combination with magnetic means disposed in operative relationship around a liquid droplet collector of the LDR. The magnetic means are effective to focus streams of droplets directed from the generator toward the collector, thereby to assure that essentially all of the droplets are directed into the collector, even though some of the streams may be misdirected as they leave the generator. The magnetic focusing means is also effective to suppress splashing of liquid when the droplets impinge on the collector.

  16. Magnetically focused liquid drop radiator

    DOEpatents

    Botts, T.E.; Powell, J.R.; Lenard, R.

    1984-12-10

    A magnetically focused liquid drop radiator for application in rejecting energy from a spacecraft, characterized by a magnetizable liquid or slurry disposed in operative relationship within the liquid droplet generator and its fluid delivery system, in combination with magnetic means disposed in operative relationship around a liquid droplet collector of the LDR. The magnetic means are effective to focus streams of droplets directed from the generator toward the collector, thereby to assure that essentially all of the droplets are directed into the collector, even though some of the streams may be misdirected as they leave the generator. The magnetic focusing means is also effective to suppress splashing of liquid when the droplets impinge on the collector.

  17. New charm results from FOCUS

    SciTech Connect

    Bianco, Stefano; /Frascati

    2004-12-01

    New results from the photoproduction experiment FOCUS are reported: Dalitz plot analysis, semileptonic form factor ratios and excited meson spectroscopy. The author reports on three new results from the photoproduction experiment FOCUS: the first Dalitz plot analysis of charm meson decays using the K-matrix approach[ 1], new measurements of the D{sub s}{sup +} {yields} {delta}(1020) {mu}{sup +}{nu} form factor ratios [2], and new measurements on L=1 excited meson spectroscopy [3], i.e., precise measurements of the masses and widths of the D*{sub 2}{sup +} and D*{sub 2}{sup 0} mesons, and evidence for broad states decaying to D{sup +}{pi}{sup -}, D{sup 0}{pi}{sup +} (the first such evidence in D{sup 0}{pi}{sup +}). The data for this paper were collected in the Wideband photoproduction experiment FOCUS during the Fermilab 1996-1997 fixed-target run.

  18. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  19. Focused X-ray source

    DOEpatents

    Piestrup, M.A.; Boyers, D.G.; Pincus, C.I.; Maccagno, P.

    1990-08-21

    Disclosed is an intense, relatively inexpensive X-ray source (as compared to a synchrotron emitter) for technological, scientific, and spectroscopic purposes. A conical radiation pattern produced by a single foil or stack of foils is focused by optics to increase the intensity of the radiation at a distance from the conical radiator. 8 figs.

  20. Focused X-ray source

    DOEpatents

    Piestrup, Melvin A.; Boyers, David G.; Pincus, Cary I.; Maccagno, Pierre

    1990-01-01

    An intense, relatively inexpensive X-ray source (as compared to a synchrotron emitter) for technological, scientific, and spectroscopic purposes. A conical radiation pattern produced by a single foil or stack of foils is focused by optics to increase the intensity of the radiation at a distance from the conical radiator.

  1. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer

    Klein, Stephen

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  2. Forecast of contracting and subcontracting opportunities. Fiscal year 1996

    SciTech Connect

    1996-02-01

    This forecast of prime and subcontracting opportunities with the U.S. Department of Energy and its MAO contractors and environmental restoration and waste management contractors, is the Department`s best estimate of small, small disadvantaged and women-owned small business procurement opportunities for fiscal year 1996. The information contained in the forecast is published in accordance with Public Law 100-656. It is not an invitation for bids, a request for proposals, or a commitment by DOE to purchase products or services. Each procurement opportunity is based on the best information available at the time of publication and may be revised or cancelled.

  3. Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts Making Wind Energy Predictable: New Profilers Provide Hourly Forecasts May 11, 2016 - 6:48pm Addthis Balancing the power grid is an art-or at least a scientific study in chaos-and the Energy Department is hoping wind energy can take a greater role in the act. Yet, the intermittency of wind-sometimes it's blowing, sometimes it's not-makes adding it smoothly to the nation's electrical grid a challenge. If wind

  4. CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    DOE Data Explorer

    Klein, Stephen

    2008-01-15

    Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are initialized at 00Z every day with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40), for the year 1997 and 2000 and initialized with both the NASA DAO Reanalyses and the NCEP GDAS data for the year 2004. The DOE CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project assesses climate models using numerical weather prediction techniques in conjunction with high quality field measurements (e.g. ARM data).

  5. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWIFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Valero, O.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Morgan, J.

    1997-01-07

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; program-level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. This web site does not include: liquid waste (current or future generation); waste to be managed by the Environmental Restoration (EM-40) contractor (i.e., waste that will be disposed of at the Environmental Restoration Disposal Facility (ERDF)); or waste that has been received by the WM Project to date (i.e., inventory waste). The focus of this web site is on low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this web site is reporting data th at was requested on 10/14/96 and submitted on 10/25/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program's life cycle. Therefore, these data represent revisions from the previous FY97.0 Data Version, due primarily to revised estimates from PNNL. There is some useful information about the structure of this report in the SWIFT Report Web Site Overview.

  6. FY 1996 solid waste integrated life-cycle forecast container summary volume 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-04-23

    For the past six years, a waste volume forecast has been collected annually from onsite and offsite generators that currently ship or are planning to ship solid waste to the Westinghouse Hanford Company`s Central Waste Complex (CWC). This document provides a description of the containers expected to be used for these waste shipments from 1996 through the remaining life cycle of the Hanford Site. In previous years, forecast data have been reported for a 30-year time period; however, the life-cycle approach was adopted this year to maintain consistency with FY 1996 Multi-Year Program Plans. This document is a companion report to the more detailed report on waste volumes: WHC-EP0900, FY 1996 Solid Waste Integrated Life-Cycle Forecast Volume Summary. Both of these documents are based on data gathered during the FY 1995 data call and verified as of January, 1996. These documents are intended to be used in conjunction with other solid waste planning documents as references for short and long-term planning of the WHC Solid Waste Disposal Division`s treatment, storage, and disposal activities over the next several decades. This document focuses on the types of containers that will be used for packaging low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). The major waste generators for each waste category and container type are also discussed. Containers used for low-level waste (LLW) are described in Appendix A, since LLW requires minimal treatment and storage prior to onsite disposal in the LLW burial grounds. The FY 1996 forecast data indicate that about 100,900 cubic meters of LLMW and TRU(M) waste are expected to be received at the CWC over the remaining life cycle of the site. Based on ranges provided by the waste generators, this baseline volume could fluctuate between a minimum of about 59,720 cubic meters and a maximum of about 152,170 cubic meters.

  7. Are there Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ... Gamma and that of Q is inverse Wishart. 5 Our forecasts take into account that the model parameters continue to drift over the forecast horizon according to their law of motion. ...

  8. Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011

    SciTech Connect

    Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.

  9. Status of Centralized Wind Power Forecasting in North America: May 2009-May 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2010-04-01

    Report surveys grid wind power forecasts for all wind generators, which are administered by utilities or regional transmission organizations (RTOs), typically with the assistance of one or more wind power forecasting companies.

  10. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System ...

  11. DOE Releases Latest Report on Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    DOE has published a new report forecasting the energy savings of LED white-light sources compared with conventional white-light sources. The sixth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid...

  12. Central focus solar energy system

    SciTech Connect

    Findell, M.

    1982-02-23

    A central focus solar energy system consists of one or more arrays of mirrors, a receiver for each array, a sun tracker, a sun tracker sun acquisition device and a control unit. Mirrors of the arrays are subjected to two-axis control by electromechanical devices actuated by sun-tracking error signals generated by the sun tracker. Mirrors are thus oriented so as to cause reflections of the direct rays of the sun from all mirrors in an array to converge on a receiver at a common focus. Fixed (Principal) axes of mirror rotation are parallel to the fixed (Principal) axis of rotation of the sun tracker sensor making orientation of the system independent of the earth's spin axis. The system includes a ''vernier'' or fine adjustment control for positioning mirrors that supplements sun tracker controls.

  13. Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast Beyond "Partly Sunny": A Better Solar Forecast December 7, 2012 - 10:00am Addthis The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods of cloud coverage. | Photo by Dennis Schroeder/NREL. The Energy Department is investing in better solar forecasting techniques to improve the reliability and stability of solar power plants during periods

  14. Central Wind Power Forecasting Programs in North America by Regional Transmission Organizations and Electric Utilities

    SciTech Connect

    Porter, K.; Rogers, J.

    2009-12-01

    The report addresses the implementation of central wind power forecasting by electric utilities and regional transmission organizations in North America.

  15. Presentation: FracFocus | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    FracFocus Presentation: FracFocus Mike Paque, Gerry Baker, and Stan Belieu reported on the work of FracFocus and the improvements made in FracFocus 2.0 as well as their connection ...

  16. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  17. Review of Wind Energy Forecasting Methods for Modeling Ramping Events

    SciTech Connect

    Wharton, S; Lundquist, J K; Marjanovic, N; Williams, J L; Rhodes, M; Chow, T K; Maxwell, R

    2011-03-28

    Tall onshore wind turbines, with hub heights between 80 m and 100 m, can extract large amounts of energy from the atmosphere since they generally encounter higher wind speeds, but they face challenges given the complexity of boundary layer flows. This complexity of the lowest layers of the atmosphere, where wind turbines reside, has made conventional modeling efforts less than ideal. To meet the nation's goal of increasing wind power into the U.S. electrical grid, the accuracy of wind power forecasts must be improved. In this report, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in collaboration with the University of Colorado at Boulder, University of California at Berkeley, and Colorado School of Mines, evaluates innovative approaches to forecasting sudden changes in wind speed or 'ramping events' at an onshore, multimegawatt wind farm. The forecast simulations are compared to observations of wind speed and direction from tall meteorological towers and a remote-sensing Sound Detection and Ranging (SODAR) instrument. Ramping events, i.e., sudden increases or decreases in wind speed and hence, power generated by a turbine, are especially problematic for wind farm operators. Sudden changes in wind speed or direction can lead to large power generation differences across a wind farm and are very difficult to predict with current forecasting tools. Here, we quantify the ability of three models, mesoscale WRF, WRF-LES, and PF.WRF, which vary in sophistication and required user expertise, to predict three ramping events at a North American wind farm.

  18. Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-03-01

    In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Immersed Boundary Method

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2012-05-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with the immersed boundary method is an extension of the open-source WRF Model available for wwww.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the gridding procedure and boundary conditions in the WRF model to improve WRF's ability to simutate the atmosphere in environments with steep terrain and additionally at high-resolutions.

  20. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  1. Cost-Effective, Customer-Focused, and Contractor-Focused Data...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Effective, Customer-Focused, and Contractor-Focused Data Tracking Systems Cost-Effective, Customer-Focused, and Contractor-Focused Data Tracking Systems Better Buildings ...

  2. Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Das, S.

    1991-12-01

    The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

  3. Non-focusing active warhead

    DOEpatents

    Hornig, H.C.

    1998-12-22

    A non-nuclear, non-focusing, active warhead that comprises a high explosive charge contained within a casing of reactive metal is disclosed. When the high explosive is detonated, the reactive metal is dispersed and reacts with the air, which significantly increases the explosive yield of the warhead. The active warhead produces therefore much higher blast effects with significantly reduced weight compared to conventional munitions. The warhead is highly effective against such targets as aircraft which typically have thin fuselages, for example. The explosiveness of this warhead can be enhanced further by elevating the temperature and therefore the reactivity of the reactive metal before or during the explosion. New methods of enhancing the reactivity of the metal are also taught. 4 figs.

  4. Non-focusing active warhead

    DOEpatents

    Hornig, Howard C.

    1998-01-01

    A non-nuclear, non-focusing, active warhead that comprises a high explosive charge contained within a casing of reactive metal. When the high explosive is detonated, the reactive metal is dispersed and reacts with the air, which significantly increases the explosive yield of the warhead. The active warhead produces therefore much higher blast effects with significantly reduced weight compared to conventional munitions. The warhead is highly effective against such targets as aircraft which typically have thin fuselages, for example. The explosiveness of this warhead can be enhanced further by elevating the temperature and therefore the reactivity of the reactive metal before or during the explosion. New methods of enhancing the reactivity of the metal are also taught.

  5. Forecasting photovoltaic array power production subject to mismatch losses

    SciTech Connect

    Picault, D.; Raison, B.; Bacha, S.; de la Casa, J.; Aguilera, J.

    2010-07-15

    The development of photovoltaic (PV) energy throughout the world this last decade has brought to light the presence of module mismatch losses in most PV applications. Such power losses, mainly occasioned by partial shading of arrays and differences in PV modules, can be reduced by changing module interconnections of a solar array. This paper presents a novel method to forecast existing PV array production in diverse environmental conditions. In this approach, field measurement data is used to identify module parameters once and for all. The proposed method simulates PV arrays with adaptable module interconnection schemes in order to reduce mismatch losses. The model has been validated by experimental results taken on a 2.2 kW{sub p} plant, with three different interconnection schemes, which show reliable power production forecast precision in both partially shaded and normal operating conditions. Field measurements show interest in using alternative plant configurations in PV systems for decreasing module mismatch losses. (author)

  6. NREL: Energy Analysis - Energy Forecasting and Modeling Staff

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Energy Forecasting and Modeling The following includes summary bios of staff expertise and interests in analysis relating to energy economics, energy system planning, risk and uncertainty modeling, and energy infrastructure planning. Team Lead: Nate Blair Administrative Support: Elizabeth Torres Clayton Barrows Dave Bielen Aaron Bloom Greg Brinkman Brian W Bush Stuart Cohen Wesley Cole Paul Denholm Nicholas DiOrio Aron Dobos Kelly Eurek Janine Freeman Bethany Frew Pieter Gagnon Elaine Hale

  7. Focus Group Activities | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Services » Outreach » Outreach Forums » Focus Group Activities Focus Group Activities Since February 2007, the Focus Group Forum has been a venue for communication among DOE managers, labor unions, and stakeholder representatives. The Focus Group Forum has resulted in integrated collaborative worker health and safety improvement activities in the areas of Training, 10 CFR 851 Implementation Improvement, Workforce Retention, and Strategic Initiatives. Learn more about the Focus Group FOCUS

  8. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapiesmore » is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.« less

  9. Toward a science of tumor forecasting for clinical oncology

    SciTech Connect

    Yankeelov, Thomas E.; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J.; Rericha, Erin C.

    2015-03-15

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community makes a concerted effort to apply lessons from weather forecasting to develop an analogous methodology for predicting and evaluating tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of tumor response is not predicted; instead, response is only assessed post hoc by physical examination or imaging methods. This fundamental practice within clinical oncology limits optimization of a treatment regimen for an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. Furthermore, with a successful methodology toward tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor-specific datasets of varied types and effectively defeat one cancer patient at a time.

  10. Assessment of the possibility of forecasting future natural gas curtailments

    SciTech Connect

    Lemont, S.

    1980-01-01

    This study provides a preliminary assessment of the potential for determining probabilities of future natural-gas-supply interruptions by combining long-range weather forecasts and natural-gas supply/demand projections. An illustrative example which measures the probability of occurrence of heating-season natural-gas curtailments for industrial users in the southeastern US is analyzed. Based on the information on existing long-range weather forecasting techniques and natural gas supply/demand projections enumerated above, especially the high uncertainties involved in weather forecasting and the unavailability of adequate, reliable natural-gas projections that take account of seasonal weather variations and uncertainties in the nation's energy-economic system, it must be concluded that there is little possibility, at the present time, of combining the two to yield useful, believable probabilities of heating-season gas curtailments in a form useful for corporate and government decision makers and planners. Possible remedial actions are suggested that might render such data more useful for the desired purpose in the future. The task may simply require the adequate incorporation of uncertainty and seasonal weather trends into modeling systems and the courage to report projected data, so that realistic natural gas supply/demand scenarios and the probabilities of their occurrence will be available to decision makers during a time when such information is greatly needed.

  11. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoplymore » of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.« less

  12. Towards a Science of Tumor Forecast for Clinical Oncology

    SciTech Connect

    Yankeelov, Tom; Quaranta, Vito; Evans, Katherine J; Rericha, Erin

    2015-01-01

    We propose that the quantitative cancer biology community make a concerted effort to apply the methods of weather forecasting to develop an analogous theory for predicting tumor growth and treatment response. Currently, the time course of response is not predicted, but rather assessed post hoc by physical exam or imaging methods. This fundamental limitation of clinical oncology makes it extraordinarily difficult to select an optimal treatment regimen for a particular tumor of an individual patient, as well as to determine in real time whether the choice was in fact appropriate. This is especially frustrating at a time when a panoply of molecularly targeted therapies is available, and precision genetic or proteomic analyses of tumors are an established reality. By learning from the methods of weather and climate modeling, we submit that the forecasting power of biophysical and biomathematical modeling can be harnessed to hasten the arrival of a field of predictive oncology. With a successful theory of tumor forecasting, it should be possible to integrate large tumor specific datasets of varied types, and effectively defeat cancer one patient at a time.

  13. Workshops, Focus Groups and Important Documents | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    May 17 Focus Group: May 18 Stationary Efficiency Portfolio Grid Scottsdale, AZ Public Talk: May 23 Workshop: May 23 Focus Group: May 24 Grid Portfolio Alternative Generation...

  14. Hydrogen Fuel Quality - Focus: Analytical Methods Development...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Fuel Quality - Focus: Analytical Methods Development & Hydrogen Fuel Quality Results Hydrogen Fuel Quality - Focus: Analytical Methods Development & Hydrogen Fuel Quality Results ...

  15. Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill

    SciTech Connect

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Voisin, Nathalie; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-15

    We investigated the contribution of medium range weather forecasts with lead times up to 14 days to seasonal hydrologic prediction skill over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Three different Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)-based experiments were performed for the period 1980-2003 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model to generate forecasts of monthly runoff and soil moisture (SM) at lead-1 (first month of the forecast period) to lead-3. The first experiment (ESP) used a resampling from the retrospective period 1980-2003 and represented full climatological uncertainty for the entire forecast period. In the second and third experiments, the first 14 days of each ESP ensemble member were replaced by either observations (perfect 14-day forecast) or by a deterministic 14-day weather forecast. We used Spearman rank correlations of forecasts and observations as the forecast skill score. We estimated the potential and actual improvement in baseline skill as the difference between the skill of experiments 2 and 3 relative to ESP, respectively. We found that useful runoff and SM forecast skill at lead-1 to -3 months can be obtained by exploiting medium range weather forecast skill in conjunction with the skill derived by the knowledge of initial hydrologic conditions. Potential improvement in baseline skill by using medium range weather forecasts, for runoff (SM) forecasts generally varies from 0 to 0.8 (0 to 0.5) as measured by differences in correlations, with actual improvement generally from 0 to 0.8 of the potential improvement. With some exceptions, most of the improvement in runoff is for lead-1 forecasts, although some improvement in SM was achieved at lead-2.

  16. Focusing DOE Compliance Efforts | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Focusing DOE Compliance Efforts Focusing DOE Compliance Efforts Focusing DOE Compliance Efforts Melvin Frank, Project Management Policy and Systems March 24, 2016 Presentation (536.02 KB) Key Resources Internal DOE Tools PMCDP EVMS PARS IIe FPD Resource Center PM Newsletter Forms and Templates More Documents & Publications DOE EVMSIH and Pilot Focusing DOE Compliance Efforts DOE/EFCOG EVMSIH "Relook", Path to Improvement Focusing DOE Compliance Efforts EVMS Interpretation Handbook

  17. Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.

  18. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Clean Power Research logo.jpg This project will address the need for a more accurate approach to forecasting net utility load by taking into consideration the contribution of customer-sited PV energy generation. Tasks within the project are designed to integrate novel PV power

  19. Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Utility Grid System Operations | Department of Energy Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Final Report - Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations Awardee: Clean Power Research Location: Napa, CA Subprogram: Systems Integration Funding Program: Solar Utility Networks: Replicable Innovations in Solar Energy (SUNRISE) Project: Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid

  20. Solid waste integrated forecast technical (SWEFT) report: FY1997 to FY 2070 - Document number changed to HNF-0918 at revision 1 - 1/7/97

    SciTech Connect

    Valero, O.J.

    1996-10-03

    This web site provides an up-to-date report on the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed at Hanford`s Solid Waste (SW) Program from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the SW Program; program- level and waste class-specific estimates; background information on waste sources; and Li comparisons with previous forecasts and with other national data sources. The focus of this web site is on low- level mixed waste (LLMW), and transuranic waste (both non-mixed and mixed) (TRU(M)). Some details on low-level waste and hazardous waste are also provided. Currently, this site is reporting data current as of 9/96. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY97 through the end of each program`s life cycle.

  1. ARM - PI Product - CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    ProductsCCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send PI Product : CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed Model Forecast Data Dataset contains the NCAR CAM3 (Collins et al., 2004) and GFDL AM2 (GFDL GAMDT, 2004) forecast data at locations close to the ARM research sites. These data are generated from a series of multi-day forecasts in which both CAM3 and AM2 are

  2. Report of the external expert peer review panel: DOE benefits forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2006-12-20

    A report for the FY 2007 GPRA methodology review, highlighting the views of an external expert peer review panel on DOE benefits forecasts.

  3. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  4. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illuminatio...

    Energy Saver

    (1.54 MB) More Documents & Publications Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications - Report 2016 SSL Forecast Report LED ADOPTION REPORT

  5. The Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconne...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    of this research will facilitate a better functional understanding of wind forecasting accuracy and power system operations at various spatial and temporal scales.* Of particular ...

  6. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forecasting behind-the-meter distributed PV generation power production within a region ... This project is expected to reduce the costs of integrating higher penetrations of PV into ...

  7. Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting Preprint J. Zhang, B.-M. Hodge, and A. Florita National Renewable Energy Laboratory S. Lu and H. F. Hamann IBM TJ Watson Research Center V. Banunarayanan U.S. Department of Energy To be presented at 3rd International Workshop on Integration of Solar Power into Power Systems London, England October 21 - 22, 2013 Conference Paper NREL/CP-5500-60142 October 2013 NOTICE The submitted manuscript has been offered by an employee of the

  8. Independent Oversight Focused Program Review, Argonne National

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Laboratory-West - May 2001 | Department of Energy Focused Program Review, Argonne National Laboratory-West - May 2001 Independent Oversight Focused Program Review, Argonne National Laboratory-West - May 2001 May 2001 Focused Program Review at Argonne National Laboratory-West This report provides the results of an independent focused review of the Emergency Management Program at the Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory-West site that was conducted by the Office of Independent

  9. Relativistic self-focusing in underdense plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Feit, M. D.; Garrison, J. C.; Rubenchik, A. M.; Komashko, A.; Musher, S. L.; Turitsyn, S. K.

    1997-04-15

    An improved cavitation model shows that stable beam channeling and electron cavitation occur for relativistic laser intensities even at powers hundreds of times larger than the critical power for self-focusing. Numerical calculations for long pulses (100 ps) demonstrate strong self-focusing at weakly relativistic intensities. The destructive effects of self-focusing are increasingly suppressed at high intensity.

  10. Focus on the Field | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Focus on the Field Focus on the Field Presentation from the 2016 DOE National Cleanup Workshop by Dr. Monica Regalbuto, Assistant Secretary, Office of Environmental Management. Focus on the Field (4.05 MB) More Documents & Publications Eliminating High Risk Work at Hanford Chairs Meeting - August 2016 EMAB Meeting - May 2016

  11. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

    SciTech Connect

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2005-08-17

    This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is not considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Cathy

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  13. AEO2017 Preliminary Macroeconomic Results

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    ... equations in the macro model. * Test the incorporation of price movements from the industrial output model into the macro model. * Test integration between the IHS macro ...

  14. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the systems ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  15. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; et al

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value ofmore » adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.« less

  16. Recent Trends in Variable Generation Forecasting and Its Value to the Power System

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Ahlstrom, Mark L.; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Sharp, Justin; Wilczak, James M.; Freedman, Jeffrey; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Cline, Joel; Bartholomy, Obadiah; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Finley, Catherine; Nakafuji, Dora; Peterson, Jack L.; Maggio, David; Marquis, Melinda

    2014-12-23

    We report that the rapid deployment of wind and solar energy generation systems has resulted in a need to better understand, predict, and manage variable generation. The uncertainty around wind and solar power forecasts is still viewed by the power industry as being quite high, and many barriers to forecast adoption by power system operators still remain. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, public, private, and academic organizations, two projects to advance wind and solar power forecasts. Additionally, several utilities and grid operators have recognized the value of adopting variable generation forecasting and have taken great strides to enhance their usage of forecasting. In parallel, power system markets and operations are evolving to integrate greater amounts of variable generation. This paper will discuss the recent trends in wind and solar power forecasting technologies in the U.S., the role of forecasting in an evolving power system framework, and the benefits to intended forecast users.

  17. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  18. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    SciTech Connect

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together into larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.

  19. 3D cloud detection and tracking system for solar forecast using multiple sky imagers

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; Heiser, John; Yoo, Shinjae; Kalb, Paul

    2015-06-23

    We propose a system for forecasting short-term solar irradiance based on multiple total sky imagers (TSIs). The system utilizes a novel method of identifying and tracking clouds in three-dimensional space and an innovative pipeline for forecasting surface solar irradiance based on the image features of clouds. First, we develop a supervised classifier to detect clouds at the pixel level and output cloud mask. In the next step, we design intelligent algorithms to estimate the block-wise base height and motion of each cloud layer based on images from multiple TSIs. Thus, this information is then applied to stitch images together intomore » larger views, which are then used for solar forecasting. We examine the system’s ability to track clouds under various cloud conditions and investigate different irradiance forecast models at various sites. We confirm that this system can 1) robustly detect clouds and track layers, and 2) extract the significant global and local features for obtaining stable irradiance forecasts with short forecast horizons from the obtained images. Finally, we vet our forecasting system at the 32-megawatt Long Island Solar Farm (LISF). Compared with the persistent model, our system achieves at least a 26% improvement for all irradiance forecasts between one and fifteen minutes.« less

  20. Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Maximum and Minimum Forecast for SRS

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas, L.C.

    1994-10-01

    This report is the third phase (Phase III) of the Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Phase I of the forecast, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast for Facilities at SRS, forecasts the yearly quantities of low-level waste (LLW), hazardous waste, mixed waste, and transuranic (TRU) wastes generated over the next 30 years by operations, decontamination and decommissioning and environmental restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site. The Phase II report, Thirty-Year Solid Waste Generation Forecast by Treatability Group (U), provides a 30-year forecast by waste treatability group for operations, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities. In addition, a 30-year forecast by waste stream has been provided for operations in Appendix A of the Phase II report. The solid wastes stored or generated at SRS must be treated and disposed of in accordance with federal, state, and local laws and regulations. To evaluate, select, and justify the use of promising treatment technologies and to evaluate the potential impact to the environment, the generic waste categories described in the Phase I report were divided into smaller classifications with similar physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics. These smaller classifications, defined within the Phase II report as treatability groups, can then be used in the Waste Management Environmental Impact Statement process to evaluate treatment options. The waste generation forecasts in the Phase II report includes existing waste inventories. Existing waste inventories, which include waste streams from continuing operations and stored wastes from discontinued operations, were not included in the Phase I report. Maximum and minimum forecasts serve as upper and lower boundaries for waste generation. This report provides the maximum and minimum forecast by waste treatability group for operation, decontamination and decommissioning, and ER activities.

  1. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  2. Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison with Forecasted Unit Sales for Five Lamp Types, Notice of Data Availability

  3. Relativistic self-focusing in underdense plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Feit, M.D.; Garrison, J.C.; Rubenchik, A.M.; Musher, S.L.; Turitsyn, S.K.

    1997-04-01

    An improved cavitation model shows that stable beam channeling and electron cavitation occur for relativistic laser intensities even at powers hundreds of times larger than the critical power for self-focusing. Numerical calculations for long pulses (100 ps) demonstrate strong self-focusing at weakly relativistic intensities. The destructive effects of self-focusing are increasingly suppressed at high intensity. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  4. FEMP Focus: 2011 Volume 20 Issue 1

    SciTech Connect

    2011-04-05

    Department of Energy (DOE); Federal Energy Management Program; FEMP Focus Newsletter; December 2010; Alternative Financing, Guidance Documents, Recovery Act Technical Assistance, Training, Energy Awareness

  5. Workshops, Focus Groups and Important Documents | Department...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Workshops, Focus Groups and Important Documents Rolling out the Energy Department ... Documents Relevant documents to the DOE-QTR are provided below, including all drafts and ...

  6. Independent Oversight Focused Safety Management Evaluation, Idaho...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    January 2001 Focused Safety Management Evaluation of the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory This report provides the results of an evaluation of the integrated...

  7. Property:Focus Area | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    and Greenhouse Gas Baselining Transportation Energy Supply Load Reduction Policy and Human Behavior Renewable Energy Food Supply Pages using the property "Focus Area" Showing 1...

  8. Flywheel energy storage system focus of display

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Flywheel Energy Storage System Focus of Display Demonstration to feature advanced, solar-powered replacement for batteries For more information contact: e:mail: Public Affairs ...

  9. Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Vertical Nesting Capability

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center

    2014-08-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with vertical nesting capability is an extension of the WRF model, which is available in the public domain, from www.wrf-model.org. The new code modifies the nesting procedure, which passes lateral boundary conditions between computational domains in the WRF model. Previously, the same vertical grid was required on all domains, while the new code allows different vertical grids to be used on concurrently run domains. This new functionality improvesmore » WRF's ability to produce high-resolution simulations of the atmosphere by allowing a wider range of scales to be efficiently resolved and more accurate lateral boundary conditions to be provided through the nesting procedure.« less

  10. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  11. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  12. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  13. ION BEAM FOCUSING MEANS FOR CALUTRON

    DOEpatents

    Backus, J.G.

    1959-06-01

    An ion beam focusing arrangement for calutrons is described. It provides a virtual focus of origin for the ion beam so that the ions may be withdrawn from an arc plasma of considerable width providing greater beam current and accuracy. (T.R.H.)

  14. Plasma lenses for focusing relativistic electron beams

    SciTech Connect

    Govil, R.; Wheeler, S.; Leemans, W.

    1997-04-01

    The next generation of colliders require tightly focused beams with high luminosity. To focus charged particle beams for such applications, a plasma focusing scheme has been proposed. Plasma lenses can be overdense (plasma density, n{sub p} much greater than electron beam density, n{sub b}) or underdense (n{sub p} less than 2 n{sub b}). In overdense lenses the space-charge force of the electron beam is canceled by the plasma and the remaining magnetic force causes the electron beam to self-pinch. The focusing gradient is nonlinear, resulting in spherical aberrations. In underdense lenses, the self-forces of the electron beam cancel, allowing the plasma ions to focus the beam. Although for a given beam density, a uniform underdense lens produces smaller focusing gradients than an overdense lens, it produces better beam quality since the focusing is done by plasma ions. The underdense lens can be improved by tapering the density of the plasma for optimal focusing. The underdense lens performance can be enhanced further by producing adiabatic plasma lenses to avoid the Oide limit on spot size due to synchrotron radiation by the electron beam. The plasma lens experiment at the Beam Test Facility (BTF) is designed to study the properties of plasma lenses in both overdense and underdense regimes. In particular, important issues such as electron beam matching, time response of the lens, lens aberrations and shot-to-shot reproducibility are being investigated.

  15. Tanks Focus Area annual report FY2000

    SciTech Connect

    2000-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) continues to face a major radioactive waste tank remediation effort with tanks containing hazardous and radioactive waste resulting from the production of nuclear materials. With some 90 million gallons of waste in the form of solid, sludge, liquid, and gas stored in 287 tanks across the DOE complex, containing approximately 650 million curies, radioactive waste storage tank remediation is the nation's highest cleanup priority. Differing waste types and unique technical issues require specialized science and technology to achieve tank cleanup in an environmentally acceptable manner. Some of the waste has been stored for over 50 years in tanks that have exceeded their design lives. The challenge is to characterize and maintain these contents in a safe condition and continue to remediate and close each tank to minimize the risks of waste migration and exposure to workers, the public, and the environment. In 1994, the DOE's Office of Environmental Management (EM) created a group of integrated, multiorganizational teams focusing on specific areas of the EM cleanup mission. These teams have evolved into five focus areas managed within EM's Office of Science and Technology (OST): Tanks Focus Area (TFA); Deactivation and Decommissioning Focus Area; Nuclear Materials Focus Area; Subsurface Contaminants Focus Area; and Transuranic and Mixed Waste Focus Area.

  16. Laser focus compensating sensing and imaging device

    DOEpatents

    Vann, Charles S.

    1993-01-01

    A laser focus compensating sensing and imaging device permits the focus of a single focal point of different frequency laser beams emanating from the same source point. In particular it allows the focusing of laser beam originating from the same laser device but having differing intensities so that a low intensity beam will not convert to a higher frequency when passing through a conversion crystal associated with the laser generating device. The laser focus compensating sensing and imaging device uses a cassegrain system to fold the lower frequency, low intensity beam back upon itself so that it will focus at the same focal point as a high intensity beam. An angular tilt compensating lens is mounted about the secondary mirror of the cassegrain system to assist in alignment. In addition cameras or CCD's are mounted with the primary mirror to sense the focused image. A convex lens is positioned co-axial with the cassegrain system on the side of the primary mirror distal of the secondary for use in aligning a target with the laser beam. A first alternate embodiment includes a cassegrain system using a series of shutters and an internally mounted dichroic mirror. A second alternate embodiment uses two laser focus compensating sensing and imaging devices for aligning a moving tool with a work piece.

  17. Laser focus compensating sensing and imaging device

    DOEpatents

    Vann, C.S.

    1993-08-31

    A laser focus compensating sensing and imaging device permits the focus of a single focal point of different frequency laser beams emanating from the same source point. In particular it allows the focusing of laser beam originating from the same laser device but having differing intensities so that a low intensity beam will not convert to a higher frequency when passing through a conversion crystal associated with the laser generating device. The laser focus compensating sensing and imaging device uses a Cassegrain system to fold the lower frequency, low intensity beam back upon itself so that it will focus at the same focal point as a high intensity beam. An angular tilt compensating lens is mounted about the secondary mirror of the Cassegrain system to assist in alignment. In addition cameras or CCD's are mounted with the primary mirror to sense the focused image. A convex lens is positioned co-axial with the Cassegrain system on the side of the primary mirror distal of the secondary for use in aligning a target with the laser beam. A first alternate embodiment includes a Cassegrain system using a series of shutters and an internally mounted dichroic mirror. A second alternate embodiment uses two laser focus compensating sensing and imaging devices for aligning a moving tool with a work piece.

  18. U.S. oil production forecast revised up for 2016 and 2017

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    oil production forecast revised up for 2016 and 2017 U.S. crude oil production is expected to be higher this year and in 2017 than previously forecast, because of a slower decline in onshore production. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration revised up its estimate for domestic oil production by about 110,000 barrels per day for 2016 and by 150,000 barrels per day next year. EIA said increased drilling activity in the Permian Basin area located in West Texas and

  19. World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    World oil inventories forecast to grow significantly in 2016 and 2017 Global oil inventories are expected to continue strong growth over the next two years which should keep oil prices low. In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said world oil stocks are likely to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day this year and by 600,000 barrels per day next year. The higher forecast for inventory builds are the result of both higher global oil production and less oil

  20. Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Improve Wind Forecasting Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million to Improve Wind Forecasting January 8, 2015 - 12:00pm Addthis The Energy Department today announced $2.5 million for a new project to research the atmospheric processes that generate wind in mountain-valley regions. This in-depth research, conducted by Vaisala of Louisville, Colorado, will be used to improve the wind industry's weather models for short-term wind forecasts, especially for those issued less

  1. Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014

    SciTech Connect

    Widiss, R.; Porter, K.

    2014-03-01

    This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.

  2. Microsoft Word - Highlights.doc

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Near-term prices in this Outlook, however, remain somewhat ... EIA's forecast is based on a macroeconomic outlook that ... The annual average diesel fuel retail prices are expected ...

  3. Focused ion beam source method and apparatus

    DOEpatents

    Pellin, Michael J.; Lykke, Keith R.; Lill, Thorsten B.

    2000-01-01

    A focused ion beam having a cross section of submicron diameter, a high ion current, and a narrow energy range is generated from a target comprised of particle source material by laser ablation. The method involves directing a laser beam having a cross section of critical diameter onto the target, producing a cloud of laser ablated particles having unique characteristics, and extracting and focusing a charged particle beam from the laser ablated cloud. The method is especially suited for producing focused ion beams for semiconductor device analysis and modification.

  4. Aerodynamic Focusing Of High-Density Aerosols

    SciTech Connect

    Ruiz, D. E.; Fisch, Nathaniel

    2014-02-24

    High-density micron-sized particle aerosols might form the basis for a number of applications in which a material target with a particular shape might be quickly ionized to form a cylindrical or sheet shaped plasma. A simple experimental device was built in order to study the properties of high-density aerosol focusing for 1#22; m silica spheres. Preliminary results recover previous findings on aerodynamic focusing at low densities. At higher densities, it is demonstrated that the focusing properties change in a way which is consistent with a density dependent Stokes number.

  5. SolFocus Inc | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Inc Place: California Zip: 94043 Product: California-based developer of high concentration PV (CPV) technology using triple junction GaAs cells. References: SolFocus Inc1...

  6. Apparatus for focusing flowing gas streams

    DOEpatents

    Nogar, N.S.; Keller, R.A.

    1985-05-20

    Apparatus for focusing gas streams. The principle of hydrodynamic focusing is applied to flowing gas streams in order to provide sample concentration for improved photon and sample utilization in resonance ionization mass spectrometric analysis. In a concentric nozzle system, gas samples introduced from the inner nozzle into the converging section of the outer nozzle are focused to streams 50-250-..mu..m in diameter. In some cases diameters of approximately 100-..mu..m are maintained over distances of several centimeters downstream from the exit orifice of the outer nozzle. The sheath gas employed has been observed to further provide a protective covering around the flowing gas sample, thereby isolating the flowing gas sample from possible unwanted reactions with nearby surfaces. A single nozzle variation of the apparatus for achieving hydrodynamic focusing of gas samples is also described.

  7. HelioFocus | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Israel-based firm engaged in the development of modular, high efficiency concentrated solar power (CSP)systems. References: HelioFocus1 This article is a stub. You can help...

  8. Major Subcontractors Consortium sharpens its focus

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Major Subcontractors Consortium sharpens its focus Community Connections: Your link to news and opportunities from Los Alamos National Laboratory Latest Issue:November 2, 2016 all issues All Issues » submit Major Subcontractors Consortium sharpens its focus Area businesses gain more value in MSC collaboration with Lab in 2016. April 4, 2016 Picuris Pueblo among non-profits receving MSC grant Picuris Pueblo was among the non-profits that received an MSC grant in 2015. In the past 10 years, 42

  9. Two-axis sagittal focusing monochromator

    DOEpatents

    Haas, Edwin G; Stelmach, Christopher; Zhong, Zhong

    2014-05-13

    An x-ray focusing device and method for adjustably focusing x-rays in two orthogonal directions simultaneously. The device and method can be operated remotely using two pairs of orthogonal benders mounted on a rigid, open frame such that x-rays may pass through the opening in the frame. The added x-ray flux allows significantly higher brightness from the same x-ray source.

  10. Geothermal Academy: Focus Center | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Academy: Focus Center Geothermal Academy: Focus Center Project objective: to develop a sufficiently robust data collection and analysis framework to: Accommodate many different kinds of GHP systems and environments. Adequately capture economic; ecological; and socio-economic benefits of GHP systems in policy-levelŽ metrics according to a triple bottom lineŽ framework. Provide policymakers with greater understanding of GHPs; to spur pro-GHP policy development.

  11. Cost-Effective, Customer-Focused, and Contractor-Focused Data Tracking Systems

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Better Buildings Residential Network Data and Evaluation Peer Exchange Call Series: Cost-Effective, Customer-Focused and Contractor-Focused Data Tracking Systems, July 24, 2014, Call Slides and Discussion Summary.

  12. U.S. diesel fuel price forecast to be 1 penny lower this summer...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    That's down 12 percent from last summer's record exports. Biodiesel production, which averaged 68,000 barrels a day last summer, is forecast to jump to 82,000 barrels a day this ...

  13. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

    Report forecasting the U.S. energy savings of LED white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high-intensity discharge) over the...

  14. Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2013-01-01

    Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

  15. Ramping Effect on Forecast Use: Integrated Ramping as a Mitigation Strategy; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Diakov, Victor; Barrows, Clayton; Brinkman, Gregory; Bloom, Aaron; Denholm, Paul

    2015-06-23

    Power generation ramping between forecasted (net) load set-points shift the generation (MWh) from its scheduled values. The Integrated Ramping is described as a method that mitigates this problem.

  16. Examining Information Entropy Approaches as Wind Power Forecasting Performance Metrics: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Orwig, K.; Milligan, M.

    2012-06-01

    In this paper, we examine the parameters associated with the calculation of the Renyi entropy in order to further the understanding of its application to assessing wind power forecasting errors.

  17. Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-11-01

    As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.

  18. U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy Information Administration | U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast-Analysis of Crude Types i This report was prepared by the U.S....

  19. Resource Information and Forecasting Group; Electricity, Resources, & Building Systems Integration (ERBSI) (Fact Sheet)

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    2009-11-01

    Researchers in the Resource Information and Forecasting group at NREL provide scientific, engineering, and analytical expertise to help characterize renewable energy resources and facilitate the integration of these clean energy sources into the electricity grid.

  20. Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 dollar a gallon in 2015

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Gasoline price forecast to stay below 3 a gallon in 2015 The national average pump price of gasoline is expected to stay below 3 per gallon during 2015. In its new monthly ...

  1. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  2. Solar energy conversion: Technological forecasting. (Latest citations from the Aerospace database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    1995-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning current forecasting of Earth surface-bound solar energy conversion technology. Topics consider research, development and utilization of this technology in relation to electric power generation, heat pumps, bioconversion, process heat and the production of renewable gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels for industrial, commercial, and domestic applications. Some citations concern forecasts which compare solar technology with other energy technologies. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  3. Forecasting Wind and Solar Generation: Improving System Operations, Greening the Grid

    SciTech Connect

    Tian; Tian; Chernyakhovskiy, Ilya

    2016-01-01

    This document discusses improving system operations with forecasting and solar generation. By integrating variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasts into system operations, power system operators can anticipate up- and down-ramps in VRE generation in order to cost-effectively balance load and generation in intra-day and day-ahead scheduling. This leads to reduced fuel costs, improved system reliability, and maximum use of renewable resources.

  4. Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.

    2013-05-01

    Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.

  5. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  6. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  7. U.S. Department of Energy Workshop Report: Solar Resources and Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Stoffel, T.

    2012-06-01

    This report summarizes the technical presentations, outlines the core research recommendations, and augments the information of the Solar Resources and Forecasting Workshop held June 20-22, 2011, in Golden, Colorado. The workshop brought together notable specialists in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, solar energy conversion, and various stakeholders from industry and academia to review recent developments and provide input for planning future research in solar resource characterization, including measurement, modeling, and forecasting.

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.

    2012-08-01

    The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

  9. Remote adjustable focus Raman spectroscopy probe

    DOEpatents

    Schmucker, John E.; Blasi, Raymond J.; Archer, William B.

    1999-01-01

    A remote adjustable focus Raman spectroscopy probe allows for analyzing Raman scattered light from a point of interest external probe. An environmental barrier including at least one window separates the probe from the point of interest. An optical tube is disposed adjacent to the environmental barrier and includes a long working length compound lens objective next to the window. A beam splitter and a mirror are at the other end. A mechanical means is used to translated the prove body in the X, Y, and Z directions resulting in a variable focus optical apparatus. Laser light is reflected by the beam splitter and directed toward the compound lens objective, then through the window and focused on the point of interest. Raman scattered light is then collected by the compound lens objective and directed through the beam splitter to a mirror. A device for analyzing the light, such as a monochrometer, is coupled to the mirror.

  10. Relativistic self-focusing in underdense plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Feit, M.D.; Garrison, J.C.; Komashko, A.; Musher, J.L.; Rubenchik, A.M.; Turistsyn, S.K.

    1997-04-24

    In the present paper, we discuss light self-focusing in underdense (nfocusing including ion dynamics will be presented in second part of the paper. In particular, we will demonstrate the formation of empty, wide channels in underdense plasma in the wake of the laser pulse. we discuss the applicability of our results to real situations and possible consequences for the ``Fast Ignitor`` project.

  11. CY15 Livermore Computing Focus Areas

    SciTech Connect

    Connell, Tom M.; Cupps, Kim C.; D'Hooge, Trent E.; Fahey, Tim J.; Fox, Dave M.; Futral, Scott W.; Gary, Mark R.; Goldstone, Robin J.; Hamilton, Pam G.; Heer, Todd M.; Long, Jeff W.; Mark, Rich J.; Morrone, Chris J.; Shoopman, Jerry D.; Slavec, Joe A.; Smith, David W.; Springmeyer, Becky R; Stearman, Marc D.; Watson, Py C.

    2015-01-20

    The LC team undertook a survey of primary Center drivers for CY15. Identified key drivers included enhancing user experience and productivity, pre-exascale platform preparation, process improvement, data-centric computing paradigms and business expansion. The team organized critical supporting efforts into three cross-cutting focus areas; Improving Service Quality; Monitoring, Automation, Delegation and Center Efficiency; and Next Generation Compute and Data Environments In each area the team detailed high level challenges and identified discrete actions to address these issues during the calendar year. Identifying the Center’s primary drivers, issues, and plans is intended to serve as a lens focusing LC personnel, resources, and priorities throughout the year.

  12. Focused ion beam micromilling and articles therefrom

    DOEpatents

    Lamartine, Bruce C. (Los Alamos, NM); Stutz, Roger A. (Los Alamos, NM)

    1998-01-01

    An ultrahigh vacuum focused ion beam micromilling apparatus and process are isclosed. Additionally, a durable data storage medium using the micromilling process is disclosed, the durable data storage medium capable of storing, e.g., digital or alphanumeric characters as well as graphical shapes or characters.

  13. Focused ion beam micromilling and articles therefrom

    DOEpatents

    Lamartine, B.C.; Stutz, R.A.

    1998-06-30

    An ultrahigh vacuum focused ion beam micromilling apparatus and process are disclosed. Additionally, a durable data storage medium using the micromilling process is disclosed, the durable data storage medium capable of storing, e.g., digital or alphanumeric characters as well as graphical shapes or characters. 6 figs.

  14. Radio frequency focused interdigital linear accelerator

    DOEpatents

    Swenson, Donald A.; Starling, W. Joel

    2006-08-29

    An interdigital (Wideroe) linear accelerator employing drift tubes, and associated support stems that couple to both the longitudinal and support stem electromagnetic fields of the linac, creating rf quadrupole fields along the axis of the linac to provide transverse focusing for the particle beam. Each drift tube comprises two separate electrodes operating at different electrical potentials as determined by cavity rf fields. Each electrode supports two fingers, pointing towards the opposite end of the drift tube, forming a four-finger geometry that produces an rf quadrupole field distribution along its axis. The fundamental periodicity of the structure is equal to one half of the particle wavelength .beta..lamda., where .beta. is the particle velocity in units of the velocity of light and .lamda. is the free space wavelength of the rf. Particles are accelerated in the gaps between drift tubes. The particle beam is focused in regions inside the drift tubes.

  15. Focused electron and ion beam systems

    DOEpatents

    Leung, Ka-Ngo; Reijonen, Jani; Persaud, Arun; Ji, Qing; Jiang, Ximan

    2004-07-27

    An electron beam system is based on a plasma generator in a plasma ion source with an accelerator column. The electrons are extracted from a plasma cathode in a plasma ion source, e.g. a multicusp plasma ion source. The beam can be scanned in both the x and y directions, and the system can be operated with multiple beamlets. A compact focused ion or electron beam system has a plasma ion source and an all-electrostatic beam acceleration and focusing column. The ion source is a small chamber with the plasma produced by radio-frequency (RF) induction discharge. The RF antenna is wound outside the chamber and connected to an RF supply. Ions or electrons can be extracted from the source. A multi-beam system has several sources of different species and an electron beam source.

  16. Mixed waste characterization, treatment & disposal focus area

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    The mission of the Mixed Waste Characterization, Treatment, and Disposal Focus Area (referred to as the Mixed Waste Focus Area or MWFA) is to provide treatment systems capable of treating DOE`s mixed waste in partnership with users, and with continual participation of stakeholders, tribal governments, and regulators. The MWFA deals with the problem of eliminating mixed waste from current and future storage in the DOE complex. Mixed waste is waste that contains both hazardous chemical components, subject to the requirements of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), and radioactive components, subject to the requirements of the Atomic Energy Act. The radioactive components include transuranic (TRU) and low-level waste (LLW). TRU waste primarily comes from the reprocessing of spent fuel and the use of plutonium in the fabrication of nuclear weapons. LLW includes radioactive waste other than uranium mill tailings, TRU, and high-level waste, including spent fuel.

  17. Permanent magnet focused X-band photoinjector

    DOEpatents

    Yu, David U. L.; Rosenzweig, James

    2002-09-10

    A compact high energy photoelectron injector integrates the photocathode directly into a multicell linear accelerator with no drift space between the injection and the linac. High electron beam brightness is achieved by accelerating a tightly focused electron beam in an integrated, multi-cell, X-band rf linear accelerator (linac). The photoelectron linac employs a Plane-Wave-Transformer (PWT) design which provides strong cell-to-cell coupling, easing manufacturing tolerances and costs.

  18. STEM Focus in Innoventure Competition Theme

    SciTech Connect

    2010-03-31

    This report documents the inclusion of the STEM focus in the annual competition theme for the Innoventure youth project. The STEM concepts have always played a part in the selection of the theme. However, this year, STEM is intentionally mentioned in the description of the theme to emphasize the importance of these concepts. This work is a part of the National Security Preparedness Project (NSPP), being performed under a Department of Energy (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) grant.

  19. Focus group discussions of daylighting practices

    SciTech Connect

    Roberson, B.F.; Harkreader, S.A.

    1988-11-01

    This research was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Buildings and Community systems and conducted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of an ongoing effort to enhance the commercial use of federally developed technologies. One such technology is the use of daylighting practices in the design of nonresidential buildings. This document is a report of the findings from meetings of focus groups conducted to gain insight into building designers' perceptions and attitudes about daylighting systems.

  20. CHARTER OF THE TRITIUM FOCUS GROUP (TFG)

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    CHARTER OF THE TRITIUM FOCUS GROUP (TFG) APRIL 2013 PURPOSE - The purpose of the TFG, a Standing DOE Working Group, is to promote cost-effective improvements in tritium safety, handling, transportation, storage, and operations, and to enhance communication across the Department of Energy (DOE) (inclusive of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)) on all matters related to tritium. OBJECTIVES - The objectives of the TFG include: 1. Serving as an efficient forum for communication and

  1. TECHNICAL INTEGRATION ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT FOCUS AREAS

    SciTech Connect

    Carey R. Butler

    2001-10-01

    This contract involved a team of companies led by WPI (formerly the Waste Policy Institute). In addition to WPI, the team included four subcontractors--TRW (formerly BDM Federal), SAIC, Energetics, and the University of North Dakota Energy and Environmental Research Center (EERC). The team of companies functioned as a ''seamless team'' assembled to support the Environmental Management Program Focus Areas. Staff resources were applied in the following offices: Richland, Washington, Idaho Falls, Idaho, Morgantown, West Virginia, Grand Forks, North Dakota, Aiken, South Carolina, Gaithersburg, Maryland, and Blacksburg, Virginia. These locations represented a mixture of site support offices at the field focus area locations and central staff to support across the focus areas. The management of this dispersed resource base relied on electronic communication links to allow the team to function as a ''virtual office'' to address tasks with the best qualified staff matched to the task assignments. A variety of tasks were assigned and successfully completed throughout the life of the contract that involved program planning and analysis, program execution, program information management and communication and data transmission.

  2. Focusing monochromators for high energy synchrotron radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Suortti, P. )

    1992-01-01

    Bent crystals are introduced as monochromators for high energy synchrotron radiation. The reflectivity of the crystal can be calculated reliably from a model where the bent crystal is approximated by a stack of lamellas, which have a gradually changing angle of reflection. The reflectivity curves of a 4 mm thick, asymmetrically cut ({chi}=9.5{degree}) Si(220) crystal are measured using 150 keV radiation and varying the bending radius from 25 to 140 m. The width of the reflectivity curve is up to 50 times the Darwin width of the reflection, and the maximum reflectivity exceeds 80%. The crystal is used as a monochromator in Compton scattering measurements. The source is on the focusing circle, so that the resolution is limited essentially by the detector/analyzer. A wide bandpass, sharply focused beam is attained when the source is outside the focusing circle in the transmission geometry. In a test experiment. 10{sup 12} photons on an area of 2 mm{sup 2} was observed. The energy band was about 4 keV centered at 40 keV. A powder diffraction pattern of a few reflections of interest was recorded by an intrinsic Ge detector, and this demonstrated that a structural transition can be followed at intervals of a few milliseconds.

  3. Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

    SciTech Connect

    Zulkepli, Jafri Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

    2015-12-11

    In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

  4. Optimization Based Data Mining Approah for Forecasting Real-Time Energy Demand

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Li, Xueping; Zhou, Shengchao

    2015-01-01

    The worldwide concern over environmental degradation, increasing pressure on electric utility companies to meet peak energy demand, and the requirement to avoid purchasing power from the real-time energy market are motivating the utility companies to explore new approaches for forecasting energy demand. Until now, most approaches for forecasting energy demand rely on monthly electrical consumption data. The emergence of smart meters data is changing the data space for electric utility companies, and creating opportunities for utility companies to collect and analyze energy consumption data at a much finer temporal resolution of at least 15-minutes interval. While the data granularity provided by smart meters is important, there are still other challenges in forecasting energy demand; these challenges include lack of information about appliances usage and occupants behavior. Consequently, in this paper, we develop an optimization based data mining approach for forecasting real-time energy demand using smart meters data. The objective of our approach is to develop a robust estimation of energy demand without access to these other building and behavior data. Specifically, the forecasting problem is formulated as a quadratic programming problem and solved using the so-called support vector machine (SVM) technique in an online setting. The parameters of the SVM technique are optimized using simulated annealing approach. The proposed approach is applied to hourly smart meters data for several residential customers over several days.

  5. Baseline data for the residential sector and development of a residential forecasting database

    SciTech Connect

    Hanford, J.W.; Koomey, J.G.; Stewart, L.E.; Lecar, M.E.; Brown, R.E.; Johnson, F.X.; Hwang, R.J.; Price, L.K.

    1994-05-01

    This report describes the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) residential forecasting database. It provides a description of the methodology used to develop the database and describes the data used for heating and cooling end-uses as well as for typical household appliances. This report provides information on end-use unit energy consumption (UEC) values of appliances and equipment historical and current appliance and equipment market shares, appliance and equipment efficiency and sales trends, cost vs efficiency data for appliances and equipment, product lifetime estimates, thermal shell characteristics of buildings, heating and cooling loads, shell measure cost data for new and retrofit buildings, baseline housing stocks, forecasts of housing starts, and forecasts of energy prices and other economic drivers. Model inputs and outputs, as well as all other information in the database, are fully documented with the source and an explanation of how they were derived.

  6. Mixed Waste Focus Area program management plan

    SciTech Connect

    Beitel, G.A.

    1996-10-01

    This plan describes the program management principles and functions to be implemented in the Mixed Waste Focus Area (MWFA). The mission of the MWFA is to provide acceptable technologies that enable implementation of mixed waste treatment systems developed in partnership with end-users, stakeholders, tribal governments and regulators. The MWFA will develop, demonstrate and deliver implementable technologies for treatment of mixed waste within the DOE Complex. Treatment refers to all post waste-generation activities including sampling and analysis, characterization, storage, processing, packaging, transportation and disposal.

  7. Forecasting longitudinal changes in oropharyngeal tumor morphology throughout the course of head and neck radiation therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Yock, Adam D.; Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Rao, Arvind; Dong, Lei; Beadle, Beth M.; Garden, Adam S.; Court, Laurence E.

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: To create models that forecast longitudinal trends in changing tumor morphology and to evaluate and compare their predictive potential throughout the course of radiation therapy. Methods: Two morphology feature vectors were used to describe 35 gross tumor volumes (GTVs) throughout the course of intensity-modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal tumors. The feature vectors comprised the coordinates of the GTV centroids and a description of GTV shape using either interlandmark distances or a spherical harmonic decomposition of these distances. The change in the morphology feature vector observed at 33 time points throughout the course of treatment was described using static, linear, and mean models. Models were adjusted at 0, 1, 2, 3, or 5 different time points (adjustment points) to improve prediction accuracy. The potential of these models to forecast GTV morphology was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and the accuracy of the models was compared using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests. Results: Adding a single adjustment point to the static model without any adjustment points decreased the median error in forecasting the position of GTV surface landmarks by the largest amount (1.2 mm). Additional adjustment points further decreased the forecast error by about 0.4 mm each. Selection of the linear model decreased the forecast error for both the distance-based and spherical harmonic morphology descriptors (0.2 mm), while the mean model decreased the forecast error for the distance-based descriptor only (0.2 mm). The magnitude and statistical significance of these improvements decreased with each additional adjustment point, and the effect from model selection was not as large as that from adding the initial points. Conclusions: The authors present models that anticipate longitudinal changes in tumor morphology using various models and model adjustment schemes. The accuracy of these models depended on their form, and the utility of these models

  8. Regional four-dimensional variational data assimilation in a quasi-operational forecasting environment

    SciTech Connect

    Zupanski, M. )

    1993-08-01

    Four-dimensional variational data assimilation is applied to a regional forecast model as part of the development of a new data assimilation system at the National Meteorological Center (NMC). The assimilation employs an operational version of the NMC's new regional forecast model defined in eta vertical coordinates, and data used are operationally produced optimal interpolation (OI) analyses (using the first guess from the NMC's global spectral model), available every 3 h. Humidity and parameterized processes are not included in the adjoint model integration. The calculation of gradients by the adjoint model is approximate since the forecast model is used in its full-physics operational form. All experiments are over a 12-h assimilation period with subsequent 48-h forecast. Three different types of assimilation experiments are performed: (a) adjustment of initial conditions only (standard [open quotes]adjoint[close quotes] approach), (b) adjustment of a correction to the model equations only (variational continuous assimilation), and (c) simultaneous or sequential adjustment of both initial conditions and the correction term. Results indicate significantly better results when the correction term is included in the assimilation. It is shown, for a single case, that the new technique [experiment (c)] is able to produce a forecast better than the current conventional OI assimilation. It is very important to note that these results are obtained with an approximate gradient, calculated from a simplified adjoint model. Thus, it may be possible to perform an operational four-dimensional variational data assimilation of realistic forecast models, even before more complex adjoint models are developed. Also, the results suggest that it may be possible to reduce the large computational cost of assimilation by using only a few iterations of the minimization algorithm. This fast convergence is encouraging from the prospective of operational use. 37 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab.

  9. SIAM Workshop: Focus on Diversity 2001

    SciTech Connect

    2001-01-01

    The Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) held a workshop focused on underrepresented minorities--graduate and undergraduate students, postdocs, and recent Ph.D's--in the mathematical and computational sciences on July 11, 2001, as part of the SIAM Annual Meeting in San Diego, California. The workshop was intended to accomplish several goals: (1) to a provide workshop focused on careers for and retention of minority students in the mathematical and computational sciences; (2) to bring together a mixture of people from different levels of professional experience, ranging from undergraduate students to senior scientists in an informal setting in order to share career experiences and options; (3) to provide an opportunity for minority graduate students, postdocs, and recent Ph.D's to present their research at an international meeting; (4) to expose undergraduate students to the many professional opportunities resulting from graduate degrees in science and mathematics; and (5) to encourage undergraduate and graduate students to speak frankly with each other about personal issues and experiences associated with pursuing a scientific career.

  10. Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Summer gasoline price forecast slightly higher, but drivers still pay less than last year Rising crude oil prices are likely to be passed on to consumers at the pump, but U.S. drivers are still expected to pay the lowest summer gasoline prices since 2004, and for all of 2016 the average household will spend $900 less on gasoline than it did two years ago." In its new monthly forecast, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said the retail price for regular grade gasoline will average

  11. ARM - Field Campaign - 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaigns915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : 915 MHz Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2011.05.31 - 2012.05.31 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of the installation of a 37 MW solar array on the grounds of Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), a study

  12. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  13. EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Improved by 30% | Department of Energy Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% EERE Success Story-Solar Forecasting Gets a Boost from Watson, Accuracy Improved by 30% October 27, 2015 - 11:48am Addthis IBM Youtube Video | Courtesy of IBM Remember when IBM's super computer Watson defeated Jeopardy! champions Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter? With funding from the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, IBM researchers are using Watson-like technology to improve solar

  14. ARM - Field Campaign - Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    govCampaignsRadar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL Campaign Links Field Campaign Report ARM Data Discovery Browse Data Comments? We would love to hear from you! Send us a note below or call us at 1-888-ARM-DATA. Send Campaign : Radar Wind Profiler for Cloud Forecasting at BNL 2013.07.15 - 2015.08.06 Lead Scientist : Michael Jensen For data sets, see below. Abstract In support of recent activities funded by the DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) to produce short-term

  15. Klystron having electrostatic quadrupole focusing arrangement

    DOEpatents

    Maschke, A.W.

    1983-08-30

    A klystron includes a source for emitting at least one electron beam, and an accelerator for accelerating the beam in a given direction through a number of drift tube sections successively aligned relative to one another in the direction of the beam. A number of electrostatic quadrupole arrays are successively aligned relative to one another along at least one of the drift tube sections in the beam direction for focusing the electron beam. Each of the electrostatic quadrupole arrays forms a different quadrupole for each electron beam. Two or more electron beams can be maintained in parallel relationship by the quadrupole arrays, thereby enabling space charge limitations encountered with conventional single beam klystrons to be overcome. 4 figs.

  16. Klystron having electrostatic quadrupole focusing arrangement

    DOEpatents

    Maschke, Alfred W.

    1983-08-30

    A klystron includes a source for emitting at least one electron beam, and an accelerator for accelarating the beam in a given direction through a number of drift tube sections successively aligned relative to one another in the direction of the beam. A number of electrostatic quadrupole arrays are successively aligned relative to one another along at least one of the drift tube sections in the beam direction for focusing the electron beam. Each of the electrostatic quadrupole arrays forms a different quadrupole for each electron beam. Two or more electron beams can be maintained in parallel relationship by the quadrupole arrays, thereby enabling space charge limitations encountered with conventional single beam klystrons to be overcome.

  17. Subsurface Contaminants Focus Area annual report 1997

    SciTech Connect

    1997-12-31

    In support of its vision for technological excellence, the Subsurface Contaminants Focus Area (SCFA) has identified three strategic goals. The three goals of the SCFA are: Contain and/or stabilize contamination sources that pose an imminent threat to surface and ground waters; Delineate DNAPL contamination in the subsurface and remediate DNAPL-contaminated soils and ground water; and Remove a full range of metal and radionuclide contamination in soils and ground water. To meet the challenges of remediating subsurface contaminants in soils and ground water, SCFA funded more than 40 technologies in fiscal year 1997. These technologies are grouped according to the following product lines: Dense Nonaqueous-Phase Liquids; Metals and Radionuclides; Source Term Containment; and Source Term Remediation. This report briefly describes the SCFA 1997 technologies and showcases a few key technologies in each product line.

  18. The Focusing DIRC with Waveform Digitizing Electronics

    SciTech Connect

    Ruckman, L.L.; Nishimura, K.; Varner, G.S.; Vavra, J.; Aston, D.; Leith, D.W.G.S.; Ratcliff, B.; /SLAC

    2012-06-15

    We have tested a novel Cherenkov imaging detector called the Focusing DIRC (FDIRC) with waveform digitizing electronics. The prototype's concept is based on the BaBar DIRC with several important improvements: (a) much faster, pixelated photon detectors, (b) a mirror that makes the photon detector smaller and less sensitive to background in future applications, and (c) electronics capable of measuring single photon resolution to {sigma} {approx} 150 ps, which allows for correction due to chromatic error. In this test, the prototype has been instrumented with seven Hamamatsu H-8500 MaPMTs. Waveforms from {approx}450 pixels are digitized with waveform sampling electronics based on the BLAB2 ASIC, operating at a sampling speed of {approx}2.5 GSa/s. This version of the FDIRC prototype was tested in a large cosmic ray telescope providing muon tracks with {approx}1 mrad angular resolution and a muon momentum cutoff of {ge} 1.6 GeV/c.

  19. Radioactive tank waste remediation focus area

    SciTech Connect

    1996-08-01

    EM`s Office of Science and Technology has established the Tank Focus Area (TFA) to manage and carry out an integrated national program of technology development for tank waste remediation. The TFA is responsible for the development, testing, evaluation, and deployment of remediation technologies within a system architecture to characterize, retrieve, treat, concentrate, and dispose of radioactive waste stored in the underground stabilize and close the tanks. The goal is to provide safe and cost-effective solutions that are acceptable to both the public and regulators. Within the DOE complex, 335 underground storage tanks have been used to process and store radioactive and chemical mixed waste generated from weapon materials production and manufacturing. Collectively, thes tanks hold over 90 million gallons of high-level and low-level radioactive liquid waste in sludge, saltcake, and as supernate and vapor. Very little has been treated and/or disposed or in final form.

  20. Digital reverse propagation in focusing Kerr media

    SciTech Connect

    Goy, Alexandre; Psaltis, Demetri

    2011-03-15

    Lenses allow the formation of clear images in homogeneous linear media. Holography is an alternative imaging method, but its use is limited to cases in which it provides an advantage, such as three-dimensional imaging. In nonlinear media, lenses no longer work. The light produces intensity-dependent aberrations. The reverse propagation method used in digital holography to form images from recorded holograms works even in Kerr media [M. Tsang, D. Psaltis, and F. G. Omenetto, Opt. Lett. 28, 1873 (2003).]. The principle has been experimentally demonstrated recently in defocusing media [C. Barsi, W.Wan, and J.W. Fleischer, Nat. Photonics 3, 211 (2009).]. Here, we report experimental results in focusing media.

  1. Independent focuses Philippines exploration on Visayan basin

    SciTech Connect

    Rillera, F.G.

    1995-08-21

    Cophil Exploration Corp., a Filipino public company, spearheaded 1995 Philippine oil and gas exploration activity with the start of its gas delineation drilling operations in Libertad, northern Cebu. Cophil and its Australian partners, Coplex Resources NL and PacRim Energy NL, have set out to complete a seven well onshore drilling program within this block this year. The companies are testing two modest shallow gas plays, Libertad and Dalingding, and a small oil play, Maya, all in northern Cebu about 500 km southeast of Manila. Following a short discussion on the geology and exploration history of the Visayan basin, this article briefly summarizes Cophil`s ongoing Cebu onshore drilling program. Afterwards, discussion focuses on identified exploration opportunities in the basin`s offshore sector.

  2. SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2003 THRU FY2046 VERSION 2003.1 VOLUME 2 [SEC 1 & 2

    SciTech Connect

    BARCOT, R.A.

    2003-12-01

    This report includes data requested on September 10, 2002 and includes radioactive solid waste forecasting updates through December 31, 2002. The FY2003.0 request is the primary forecast for fiscal year FY 2003.

  3. Simulations of Clouds and Sensitivity Study by Weather Research and Forecast Model for Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Case 4

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, J.; Zhang, M.

    2005-03-18

    One of the large errors in general circulation models (GCMs) cloud simulations is from the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale frontal cloud systems. Now, with the availability of the cloud observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) 2000 cloud Intensive Operational Period (IOP) and other observational datasets, the community is able to document the model biases in comparison with the observations and make progress in development of better cloud schemes in models. Xie et al. (2004) documented the errors in midlatitude frontal cloud simulations for ARM Case 4 by single-column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs). According to them, the errors in the model simulated cloud field might be caused by following reasons: (1) lacking of sub-grid scale variability; (2) lacking of organized mesoscale cyclonic advection of hydrometeors behind a moving cyclone which may play important role to generate the clouds there. Mesoscale model, however, can be used to better under stand these controls on the subgrid variability of clouds. Few studies have focused on applying mesoscale models to the forecasting of cloud properties. Weaver et al. (2004) used a mesoscale model RAMS to study the frontal clouds for ARM Case 4 and documented the dynamical controls on the sub-GCM-grid-scale cloud variability.

  4. Industrial end-use forecasting that incorporates DSM and air quality

    SciTech Connect

    Tutt, T.; Flory, J.

    1995-05-01

    The California Energy Commission (CEC) and major enregy utilities in California have generally depended on simple aggregate intensity or economic models to forecast energy use in the process industry sector (which covers large industries employing basic processes to transform raw materials, such as paper mills, glass plants, and cement plants). Two recent trends suggests that the time has come to develop a more disaggregate process industry forecasting model. First, recent efforts to improve air quality, especially by the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), could significantly affect energy use by the process industry by altering the technologies and processes employed in order to reduce emissions. Second, there is a renewed interest in Demand-Side Management (DSM), not only for utility least-cost planning, but also for improving the economic competitiveness and environmental compliance of the pro{minus}cess industries. A disaggregate forecasting model is critical to help the CEC and utilities evaluate both the air quality and DSM impacts on energy use. A crucial obstacle to the development and use of these detailed process industry forecasting models is the lack of good data about disaggregate energy use in the sector. The CEC is nearing completion of a project to begin to overcome this lack of data. The project is testing methds of developing detailed energy use data, collecting an initial database for a large portion of southern California, and providing recommendations and direction for further data collection efforts.

  5. Expectations models of electric utilities' forecasts: a case study of econometric estimation with influential data points

    SciTech Connect

    Vellutini, R. de A.S.; Mount, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This study develops an econometric model for explaining how electric utilities revise their forecasts of future electricity demand each year. The model specification is developed from the adaptive expectations hypothesis and it relates forecasted growth rates to actual lagged growth rates of electricity demand. Unlike other studies of the expectation phenomenon, expectations of future demand levels constitute an observable variable and thus can be incorporated explicitly into the model. The data used for the analysis were derived from the published forecasts of the nine National Electric Reliability Councils in the US for the years 1974 to 1980. Three alternative statistical methods are used for estimation purposes: ordinary least-squares, robust regression and a diagnostic analysis to identify influential observations. The results obtained with the first two methods are very similar, but are both inconsistent with the underlying economic logic of the model. The estimated model obtained from the diagnostics approach after deleting two aberrant observations is consistent with economic logic, and supports the hypothesis that the low growth demand experienced immediately following the oil embargo in 1973 were disregarded by the industry for forecasting purposes. The model includes transitory effects associated with the oil embargo that gradually disappear over time, the estimated coefficients for the lagged values of actual growth approach a structure with declining positive weights. The general shape of this asymptotic structure is similar to the findings in many economic applications using distributed lag models.

  6. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Orwig, K.; Clark, C.; Cline, J.; Benjamin, S.; Wilczak, J.; Marquis, M.; Finley, C.; Stern, A.; Freedman, J.

    2012-09-01

    The current state of the art of wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-hour time frame has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risk on the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: 1) a 1-year field measurement campaign within two regions; 2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and 3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provides an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis.

  7. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanisticempirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  8. DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials This agenda provides information about the DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials on May 18, 2006. theory_session_agenda.pdf (156.76 KB) More Documents & Publications U.S. Department of Energy Theorty Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials Summary Report from Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials Summary Report from DOE Theory Focus Session on

  9. Meeting Attendance - 32nd Tritium Focus Group Meeting | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy 2nd Tritium Focus Group Meeting Meeting Attendance - 32nd Tritium Focus Group Meeting Attendees to the 32nd Tritium Focus Group Meeting held in Germantown, Maryland, April 23-25, 2013. Meeting Attendance - 32nd Tritium Focus Group Meeting (76.56 KB) More Documents & Publications Meeting Attendance - 33rd Tritium Focus Group Meeting Meeting Attendance - 34th Tritium Focus Group Meeting Tritium 2013 Presentation

  10. Meeting Attendance - 35th Tritium Focus Group Meeting | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy 5th Tritium Focus Group Meeting Meeting Attendance - 35th Tritium Focus Group Meeting Attendees to the 35th Tritium Focus Group Meeting held in Princeton, NJ on May 5-7, 2015. Meeting Attendance - 35th Tritium Focus Group Meeting (108.18 KB) More Documents & Publications Meeting Attendance - 34th Tritium Focus Group Meeting Meeting Attendance - 33rd Tritium Focus Group Meeting

  11. Liquid cooled, linear focus solar cell receiver

    DOEpatents

    Kirpich, Aaron S.

    1985-01-01

    Separate structures for electrical insulation and thermal conduction are established within a liquid cooled, linear focus solar cell receiver for use with parabolic or Fresnel optical concentrators. The receiver includes a V-shaped aluminum extrusion having a pair of outer faces each formed with a channel receiving a string of solar cells in thermal contact with the extrusion. Each cell string is attached to a continuous glass cover secured within the channel with spring clips to isolate the string from the external environment. Repair or replacement of solar cells is effected simply by detaching the spring clips to remove the cover/cell assembly without interrupting circulation of coolant fluid through the receiver. The lower surface of the channel in thermal contact with the cells of the string is anodized to establish a suitable standoff voltage capability between the cells and the extrusion. Primary electrical insulation is provided by a dielectric tape disposed between the coolant tube and extrusion. Adjacent solar cells are soldered to interconnect members designed to accommodate thermal expansion and mismatches. The coolant tube is clamped into the extrusion channel with a releasably attachable clamping strip to facilitate easy removal of the receiver from the coolant circuit.

  12. Liquid cooled, linear focus solar cell receiver

    DOEpatents

    Kirpich, A.S.

    1983-12-08

    Separate structures for electrical insulation and thermal conduction are established within a liquid cooled, linear focus solar cell receiver for use with parabolic or Fresnel optical concentrators. The receiver includes a V-shaped aluminum extrusion having a pair of outer faces each formed with a channel receiving a string of solar cells in thermal contact with the extrusion. Each cell string is attached to a continuous glass cover secured within the channel with spring clips to isolate the string from the external environment. Repair or replacement of solar cells is effected simply by detaching the spring clips to remove the cover/cell assembly without interrupting circulation of coolant fluid through the receiver. The lower surface of the channel in thermal contact with the cells of the string is anodized to establish a suitable standoff voltage capability between the cells and the extrusion. Primary electrical insulation is provided by a dielectric tape disposed between the coolant tube and extrusion. Adjacent solar cells are soldered to interconnect members designed to accommodate thermal expansion and mismatches. The coolant tube is clamped into the extrusion channel with a releasably attachable clamping strip to facilitate easy removal of the receiver from the coolant circuit.

  13. Neutron Radiography Reactor Reactivity -- Focused Lessons Learned

    SciTech Connect

    Eric Woolstenhulme; Randal Damiana; Kenneth Schreck; Ann Marie Phillips; Dana Hewit

    2010-11-01

    As part of the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, the Neutron Radiography Reactor (NRAD) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) was converted from using highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. After the conversion, NRAD resumed operations and is meeting operational requirements. Radiography image quality and the number of images that can be produced in a given time frame match pre-conversion capabilities. However, following the conversion, NRADs excess reactivity with the LEU fuel was less than it had been with the HEU fuel. Although some differences between model predictions and actual performance are to be expected, the lack of flexibility in NRADs safety documentation prevented adjusting the reactivity by adding more fuel, until the safety documentation could be modified. To aid future reactor conversions, a reactivity-focused Lessons Learned meeting was held. This report summarizes the findings of the lessons learned meeting and addresses specific questions posed by DOE regarding NRADs conversion and reactivity.

  14. EM Forum in South Carolina Focuses on Innovative Technologies...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Forum in South Carolina Focuses on Innovative Technologies to Improve Cleanup, Reduce Costs EM Forum in South Carolina Focuses on Innovative Technologies to Improve Cleanup, Reduce ...

  15. Summary Report from DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials Summary Report from DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials This report provides a summary of feedback from ...

  16. Focus Series: Program Finds Community "Readiness" Is the Key...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Program Finds Community "Readiness" Is the Key to More Retrofits Focus Series: Program Finds Community "Readiness" Is the Key to More Retrofits Focus Series: Program Finds ...

  17. GWI plan ensures focused, consistent approach to improvements...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    GWI plan ensures focused, ... GWI plan ensures focused, consistent approach to improvements Posted: July 9, 2015 - 4:31pm General Workplace Improvement projects are underway at ...

  18. AMO's New Institute Focused on Wide Bandgap Power Electronics...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Focused on Wide Bandgap Power Electronics Manufacturing AMO's New Institute Focused on Wide Bandgap Power Electronics Manufacturing January 15, 2014 - 11:34am Addthis The Next ...

  19. Employee-Focused Structure Helps Produce Upgrades for Contractor...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Employee-Focused Structure Helps Produce Upgrades for Contractor Employee-Focused Structure Helps Produce Upgrades for Contractor Photo of a young man sitting on a couch, looking ...

  20. Feb. 25 Webinar Will Focus on Managing and Implementing Energy...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    5 Webinar Will Focus on Managing and Implementing Energy Projects for Community Economic Development Feb. 25 Webinar Will Focus on Managing and Implementing Energy Projects for ...

  1. Laser Focus World highlights Kaminski's home-grown ARPES spectroscopy...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Laser Focus World highlights Kaminski's home-grown ARPES spectroscopy system Laser Focus World senior editor Gail Overton wrote a story on angled-resolved photo-emission...

  2. New AMO Consortium Focuses on Energy Efficient and Environmentally...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    AMO Consortium Focuses on Energy Efficient and Environmentally Friendly Materials for Cooling New AMO Consortium Focuses on Energy Efficient and Environmentally Friendly Materials ...

  3. Energy Department to Launch New Energy Innovation Hub Focused...

    Energy Saver

    to Launch New Energy Innovation Hub Focused on Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage Energy Department to Launch New Energy Innovation Hub Focused on Advanced Batteries and Energy ...

  4. System Simulations of Hybrid Electric Vehicles with Focus on...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    System Simulations of Hybrid Electric Vehicles with Focus on Emissions System Simulations of Hybrid Electric Vehicles with Focus on Emissions Comparative simulations of hybrid ...

  5. Landfill stabilization focus area: Technology summary

    SciTech Connect

    1995-06-01

    Landfills within the DOE Complex as of 1990 are estimated to contain 3 million cubic meters of buried waste. The DOE facilities where the waste is predominantly located are at Hanford, the Savannah River Site (SRS), the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR), the Nevada Test Site (NTS), and the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP). Landfills include buried waste, whether on pads or in trenches, sumps, ponds, pits, cribs, heaps and piles, auger holes, caissons, and sanitary landfills. Approximately half of all DOE buried waste was disposed of before 1970. Disposal regulations at that time permitted the commingling of various types of waste (i.e., transuranic, low-level radioactive, hazardous). As a result, much of the buried waste throughout the DOE Complex is presently believed to be contaminated with both hazardous and radioactive materials. DOE buried waste typically includes transuranic-contaminated radioactive waste (TRU), low-level radioactive waste (LLW), hazardous waste per 40 CFR 26 1, greater-than-class-C waste per CFR 61 55 (GTCC), mixed TRU waste, and mixed LLW. The mission of the Landfill Stabilization Focus Area is to develop, demonstrate, and deliver safer,more cost-effective and efficient technologies which satisfy DOE site needs for the remediation and management of landfills. The LSFA is structured into five technology areas to meet the landfill remediation and management needs across the DOE complex. These technology areas are: assessment, retrieval, treatment, containment, and stabilization. Technical tasks in each of these areas are reviewed.

  6. Mixed waste focus area alternative technologies workshop

    SciTech Connect

    Borduin, L.C.; Palmer, B.A.; Pendergrass, J.A.

    1995-05-24

    This report documents the Mixed Waste Focus Area (MWFA)-sponsored Alternative Technology Workshop held in Salt Lake City, Utah, from January 24--27, 1995. The primary workshop goal was identifying potential applications for emerging technologies within the Options Analysis Team (OAT) ``wise`` configuration. Consistent with the scope of the OAT analysis, the review was limited to the Mixed Low-Level Waste (MLLW) fraction of DOE`s mixed waste inventory. The Los Alamos team prepared workshop materials (databases and compilations) to be used as bases for participant review and recommendations. These materials derived from the Mixed Waste Inventory Report (MWIR) data base (May 1994), the Draft Site Treatment Plan (DSTP) data base, and the OAT treatment facility configuration of December 7, 1994. In reviewing workshop results, the reader should note several caveats regarding data limitations. Link-up of the MWIR and DSTP data bases, while representing the most comprehensive array of mixed waste information available at the time of the workshop, requires additional data to completely characterize all waste streams. A number of changes in waste identification (new and redefined streams) occurred during the interval from compilation of the data base to compilation of the DSTP data base with the end result that precise identification of radiological and contaminant characteristics was not possible for these streams. To a degree, these shortcomings compromise the workshop results; however, the preponderance of waste data was linked adequately, and therefore, these analyses should provide useful insight into potential applications of alternative technologies to DOE MLLW treatment facilities.

  7. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  8. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Zack, J; Natenberg, E; Young, S; Manobianco, J; Kamath, C

    2010-02-21

    The operators of electrical grids, sometimes referred to as Balancing Authorities (BA), typically make critical decisions on how to most reliably and economically balance electrical load and generation in time frames ranging from a few minutes to six hours ahead. At higher levels of wind power generation, there is an increasing need to improve the accuracy of 0- to 6-hour ahead wind power forecasts. Forecasts on this time scale have typically been strongly dependent on short-term trends indicated by the time series of power production and meteorological data from a wind farm. Additional input information is often available from the output of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and occasionally from off-site meteorological towers in the region surrounding the wind generation facility. A widely proposed approach to improve short-term forecasts is the deployment of off-site meteorological towers at locations upstream from the wind generation facility in order to sense approaching wind perturbations. While conceptually appealing, it turns out that, in practice, it is often very difficult to derive significant benefit in forecast performance from this approach. The difficulty is rooted in the fact that the type, scale, and amplitude of the processes controlling wind variability at a site change from day to day if not from hour to hour. Thus, a location that provides some useful forecast information for one time may not be a useful predictor a few hours later. Indeed, some processes that cause significant changes in wind power production operate predominantly in the vertical direction and thus cannot be monitored by employing a network of sensors at off-site locations. Hence, it is very challenging to determine the type of sensors and deployment locations to get the most benefit for a specific short-term forecast application. Two tools recently developed in the meteorological research community have the potential to help determine the locations and parameters to

  9. FY 2000 Deactivation and Decommissioning Focus Area Annual Report

    SciTech Connect

    2001-03-01

    This document describes activities of the Deactivation and Decommissioning Focus Area for the past year.

  10. EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    EIA revises up forecast for U.S. 2013 crude oil production by 70,000 barrels per day The forecast for U.S. crude oil production keeps going higher. The U.S. Energy Information Administration revised upward its projection for crude oil output in 2013 by 70,000 barrels per day and for next year by 190,000 barrels per day. U.S. oil production is now on track to average 7.5 million barrels per day this year and rise to 8.4 million barrels per day in 2014, according to EIA's latest monthly forecast.

  11. Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)

    Reports and Publications

    1998-01-01

    The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

  12. A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    System A Processor to get UV-A and UV-B Radiation Products from the ECMWF Forecast System Morcrette, Jean-Jacques European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Category: Radiation A new processor for evaluating the UV-B and UV-A radiation at the surface, based on modifications to the current shortwave radiation scheme of the ECMWF forecast system is described. Sensitivity studies of the UV surface irradiance and Erythemal Dose Rate to spectral resolution, representation and atmospheric

  13. Alternative Fuels Data Center: North Carolina's Henderson County Focuses on

    Alternative Fuels and Advanced Vehicles Data Center

    Natural Gas North Carolina's Henderson County Focuses on Natural Gas to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: North Carolina's Henderson County Focuses on Natural Gas on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: North Carolina's Henderson County Focuses on Natural Gas on Twitter Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: North Carolina's Henderson County Focuses on Natural Gas on Google Bookmark Alternative Fuels Data Center: North Carolina's Henderson County Focuses

  14. Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS) | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Sector: Energy Focus Area: Buildings, Energy Efficiency Topics: Baseline projection, - Macroeconomic, Pathways analysis Resource Type:...

  15. Expanded studies of linear collider final focus systems at the Final Focus Test Beam

    SciTech Connect

    Tenenbaum, P.G.

    1995-12-01

    In order to meet their luminosity goals, linear colliders operating in the center-of-mass energy range from 3,50 to 1,500 GeV will need to deliver beams which are as small as a few Manometers tall, with x:y aspect ratios as large as 100. The Final Focus Test Beam (FFTB) is a prototype for the final focus demanded by these colliders: its purpose is to provide demagnification equivalent to those in the future linear collider, which corresponds to a focused spot size in the FFTB of 1.7 microns (horizontal) by 60 manometers (vertical). In order to achieve the desired spot sizes, the FFTB beam optics must be tuned to eliminate aberrations and other errors, and to ensure that the optics conform to the desired final conditions and the measured initial conditions of the beam. Using a combination of incoming-beam diagnostics. beam-based local diagnostics, and global tuning algorithms, the FFTB beam size has been reduced to a stable final size of 1.7 microns by 70 manometers. In addition, the chromatic properties of the FFTB have been studied using two techniques and found to be acceptable. Descriptions of the hardware and techniques used in these studies are presented, along with results and suggestions for future research.

  16. Integration of Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Loutan, Clyde; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2010-04-20

    In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the uncertainty ranges for the required generation performance envelope, including the balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (CAISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

  17. Unit commitment with wind power generation: integrating wind forecast uncertainty and stochastic programming.

    SciTech Connect

    Constantinescu, E. M.; Zavala, V. M.; Rocklin, M.; Lee, S.; Anitescu, M.

    2009-10-09

    We present a computational framework for integrating the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulations that account for wind power uncertainty. We first enhance the WRF model with adjoint sensitivity analysis capabilities and a sampling technique implemented in a distributed-memory parallel computing architecture. We use these capabilities through an ensemble approach to model the uncertainty of the forecast errors. The wind power realizations are exploited through a closed-loop stochastic unit commitment/energy dispatch formulation. We discuss computational issues arising in the implementation of the framework. In addition, we validate the framework using real wind speed data obtained from a set of meteorological stations. We also build a simulated power system to demonstrate the developments.

  18. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  19. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenberg, Joel F.

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  20. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  1. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  2. 2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.

    SciTech Connect

    United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

    2006-07-01

    This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.

  3. A Chronological Reliability Model Incorporating Wind Forecasts to Assess Wind Plant Reserve Allocation: Preprint

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    * NREL/CP-500-32210 A Chronological Reliability Model Incorporating Wind Forecasts to Assess Wind Plant Reserve Allocation Preprint Michael Milligan To be presented at the American Wind Energy Association WindPower 2002 Conference Portland, Oregon June 3 - June 5, 2002 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 NREL is a U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory Operated by Midwest Research Institute * Battelle * Bechtel Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337

  4. Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

    SciTech Connect

    Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong

    2015-05-15

    Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.

  5. New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration In Idaho and Oregon

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    New Forecasting Tools Enhance Wind Energy Integration in Idaho and Oregon Page 1 Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy and the electricity industry have jointly invested over $7.9 billion in 99 cost-shared Smart Grid Investment Grant projects to modernize the electric grid, strengthen cybersecurity, improve interoperability, and collect an unprecedented level of data on smart grid and customer operations. 1. Summary Idaho Power Company (IPC)

  6. Modeling and forecasting the distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobs, John M.; Rhodes, M.; Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Leight, A.; Long, Wen; Wood, R.

    2014-11-01

    The aim is to construct statistical models to predict the presence, abundance and potential virulence of Vibrio vulnificus in surface waters. A variety of statistical techniques were used in concert to identify water quality parameters associated with V. vulnificus presence, abundance and virulence markers in the interest of developing strong predictive models for use in regional oceanographic modeling systems. A suite of models are provided to represent the best model fit and alternatives using environmental variables that allow them to be put to immediate use in current ecological forecasting efforts. Conclusions: Environmental parameters such as temperature, salinity and turbidity are capable of accurately predicting abundance and distribution of V. vulnificus in Chesapeake Bay. Forcing these empirical models with output from ocean modeling systems allows for spatially explicit forecasts for up to 48 h in the future. This study uses one of the largest data sets compiled to model Vibrio in an estuary, enhances our understanding of environmental correlates with abundance, distribution and presence of potentially virulent strains and offers a method to forecast these pathogens that may be replicated in other regions.

  7. Turbulence-driven coronal heating and improvements to empirical forecasting of the solar wind

    SciTech Connect

    Woolsey, Lauren N.; Cranmer, Steven R.

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting models of the solar wind often rely on simple parameterizations of the magnetic field that ignore the effects of the full magnetic field geometry. In this paper, we present the results of two solar wind prediction models that consider the full magnetic field profile and include the effects of Alfvn waves on coronal heating and wind acceleration. The one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code ZEPHYR self-consistently finds solar wind solutions without the need for empirical heating functions. Another one-dimensional code, introduced in this paper (The Efficient Modified-Parker-Equation-Solving Tool, TEMPEST), can act as a smaller, stand-alone code for use in forecasting pipelines. TEMPEST is written in Python and will become a publicly available library of functions that is easy to adapt and expand. We discuss important relations between the magnetic field profile and properties of the solar wind that can be used to independently validate prediction models. ZEPHYR provides the foundation and calibration for TEMPEST, and ultimately we will use these models to predict observations and explain space weather created by the bulk solar wind. We are able to reproduce with both models the general anticorrelation seen in comparisons of observed wind speed at 1 AU and the flux tube expansion factor. There is significantly less spread than comparing the results of the two models than between ZEPHYR and a traditional flux tube expansion relation. We suggest that the new code, TEMPEST, will become a valuable tool in the forecasting of space weather.

  8. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    DOE PAGES [OSTI]

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equationsmore » at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.« less

  9. Decreasing the temporal complexity for nonlinear, implicit reduced-order models by forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Carlberg, Kevin; Ray, Jaideep; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart

    2015-02-14

    Implicit numerical integration of nonlinear ODEs requires solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations at each time step. Each of these systems is often solved by a Newton-like method, which incurs a sequence of linear-system solves. Most model-reduction techniques for nonlinear ODEs exploit knowledge of system's spatial behavior to reduce the computational complexity of each linear-system solve. However, the number of linear-system solves for the reduced-order simulation often remains roughly the same as that for the full-order simulation. We propose exploiting knowledge of the model's temporal behavior to (1) forecast the unknown variable of the reduced-order system of nonlinear equations at future time steps, and (2) use this forecast as an initial guess for the Newton-like solver during the reduced-order-model simulation. To compute the forecast, we propose using the Gappy POD technique. As a result, the goal is to generate an accurate initial guess so that the Newton solver requires many fewer iterations to converge, thereby decreasing the number of linear-system solves in the reduced-order-model simulation.

  10. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  11. Evaluation of Forecasted Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus in the NCAR, GFDL and ECMWF Models

    SciTech Connect

    Hannay, C; Williamson, D L; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Olson, J G; Klein, S A; Bretherton, C S; K?hler, M

    2008-01-24

    We examine forecasts of Southeast Pacific stratocumulus at 20S and 85W during the East Pacific Investigation of Climate (EPIC) cruise of October 2001 with the ECMWF model, the Atmospheric Model (AM) from GFDL, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) from NCAR, and the CAM with a revised atmospheric boundary layer formulation from the University of Washington (CAM-UW). The forecasts are initialized from ECMWF analyses and each model is run for 3 days to determine the differences with the EPIC field data. Observations during the EPIC cruise show a stable and well-mixed boundary layer under a sharp inversion. The inversion height and the cloud layer have a strong and regular diurnal cycle. A key problem common to the four models is that the forecasted planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is too low when compared to EPIC observations. All the models produce a strong diurnal cycle in the Liquid Water Path (LWP) but there are large differences in the amplitude and the phase compared to the EPIC observations. This, in turn, affects the radiative fluxes at the surface. There is a large spread in the surface energy budget terms amongst the models and large discrepancies with observational estimates. Single Column Model (SCM) experiments with the CAM show that the vertical pressure velocity has a large impact on the PBL height and LWP. Both the amplitude of the vertical pressure velocity field and its vertical structure play a significant role in the collapse or the maintenance of the PBL.

  12. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

    SciTech Connect

    Graham, Robin Lambert

    2007-01-01

    Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

  13. Why Models Don%3CU%2B2019%3Et Forecast.

    SciTech Connect

    McNamara, Laura A.

    2010-08-01

    The title of this paper, Why Models Don't Forecast, has a deceptively simple answer: models don't forecast because people forecast. Yet this statement has significant implications for computational social modeling and simulation in national security decision making. Specifically, it points to the need for robust approaches to the problem of how people and organizations develop, deploy, and use computational modeling and simulation technologies. In the next twenty or so pages, I argue that the challenge of evaluating computational social modeling and simulation technologies extends far beyond verification and validation, and should include the relationship between a simulation technology and the people and organizations using it. This challenge of evaluation is not just one of usability and usefulness for technologies, but extends to the assessment of how new modeling and simulation technologies shape human and organizational judgment. The robust and systematic evaluation of organizational decision making processes, and the role of computational modeling and simulation technologies therein, is a critical problem for the organizations who promote, fund, develop, and seek to use computational social science tools, methods, and techniques in high-consequence decision making.

  14. Mid-Tier Advocacy Business Focused Breakfast Discussion 2016...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Mid-Tier Advocacy Business Focused Breakfast Discussion 2016 Mid-Tier Advocacy Business Focused Breakfast Discussion 2016 January 14, 2016 7:00AM to 9:00AM EST Mid-Tier Advocacy...

  15. Focus Series -- Chicago -- Energy Impact Illinois (EI2) | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Focus Series -- Chicago -- Energy Impact Illinois (EI2) Focus Series -- Chicago -- Energy Impact Illinois (EI2): A community-based, boots-on-the-ground outreach campaign. Through a ...

  16. Updated Web Tool Focuses on Bottom Line for Distributed Wind...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Updated Web Tool Focuses on Bottom Line for Distributed Wind Turbines Updated Web Tool Focuses on Bottom Line for Distributed Wind Turbines January 10, 2013 - 2:43pm Addthis This...

  17. Oak Ridge Community Meeting Focused on Enabling Future Missions...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Ridge Community Meeting Focused on Enabling Future Missions Oak Ridge Community Meeting Focused on Enabling Future Missions June 15, 2016 - 12:35pm Addthis OREM Manager Sue Cange ...

  18. Wiggler plane focusing in a linear free electron laser

    DOEpatents

    Scharlemann, Ernst T. (Livermore, CA)

    1988-01-01

    Free electron laser apparatus that provides a magnetic centering force to turn or focus a non-axial electron toward the longitudinal axis as desired. The focusing effect is provided by wiggler magnet pole faces that are approximately parabolically shaped.

  19. Independent Oversight Focused Review, Kansas City Plant, Summary...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    1 Focused Review of Environment, Safety and Health and Emergency Management at the Kansas City Plant This report provides a summary of the results of a focused review of the...

  20. Facility will focus on bioenergy, global food security

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Facility will focus on bioenergy, global food security Facility will focus on bioenergy, global food security The New Mexico Consortium expects to complete the 27,000 square foot ...

  1. Meeting Attendance- 33rd Tritium Focus Group Meeting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Attendees to the 33rd Tritium Focus Group Meeting, held in Aiken, South Carolina, April 22-24, 2014.

  2. System Simulations of Hybrid Electric Vehicles with Focus on Emissions

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Comparative simulations of hybrid electric vehicles with gasoline and diesel engines will be conducted with focus on emissions control.

  3. Meeting Attendance - 34th Tritium Focus Group Meeting | Department of

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    Energy 4th Tritium Focus Group Meeting Meeting Attendance - 34th Tritium Focus Group Meeting Attendees to the 34th Tritium Focus Group Meeting held in Idaho Falls, ID on September 23-25, 2014. Meeting Attendance - 34th Tritium Focus Group Meeting (57.55 KB) More Documents & Publications Technological Assessment of Plasma Facing Components for DEMO Reactors Overview of tritium activity in Japan

  4. Memorandum for Tritium Focus Group Members from Bill Weaver

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Official Position of the Tritium Focus Group on Hazard Category 2 and 3 Threshold Values for Tritium.

  5. Meeting Attendance- 36th Tritium Focus Group Meeting

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Attendees to the 36th Tritium Focus Group Meeting held in Los Alamos, New Mexico, November 03-05, 2015.

  6. Summary Report from Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials |

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Department of Energy Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials Summary Report from Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials This report provides information about the Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials held on May 18, 2006 in Crystal City, Va. theory_session_summary.pdf (206.73 KB) More Documents & Publications Summary Report from DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials Kinetics, Mechanics and Microstructure Changes in Storage Media DOE

  7. Apparatus and method for performing electrodynamic focusing on a microchip

    DOEpatents

    Ramsey, J.M.; Jacobson, S.C.

    1999-01-12

    A microchip device includes a focusing channel, in which an electric field strength established in the focusing channel is controlled relative to an electric field strength established in a material transport channel segment to spatially focus the material traversing the material transport channel segment. 22 figs.

  8. Focus Group Meeting (Activities Status) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    November 17, 2009 Meeting Agenda, Summary and Accomplishments Overview Documents Available for Download Meeting Agenda (76.8 KB) Meeting Summary (1 MB) Integrated Collaborative Oversight Concept (170.68 KB) Accomplishments Overview (208.47 KB) More Documents & Publications Focus Group Meeting (Activities Status) Focus Group Meeting (Topical Wrap-Up) Focus Group Meeting (Activities Status

  9. Apparatus and method for performing electrodynamic focusing on a microchip

    DOEpatents

    Ramsey, John Michael (Knoxville, TN); Jacobson, Stephen C. (Knoxville, TN)

    1999-01-01

    A microchip device includes a focusing channel, in which an electric field strength established in the focusing channel is controlled relative to an electric field strength established in a material transport channel segment to spatially focus the material traversing the material transport channel segment.

  10. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module of...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    are covered in order to meet client needs regarding investment and financial allocation strategies. (See Table A10.) Inflation: Inflation (VI) is modeled as a...

  11. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM...

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System May 2014 Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 U.S. Energy ...

  12. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module of...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    of employment by industry is industry output. Both current and lagged output values enter in the employment specification, reflecting the tendency for hiring to lag output...

  13. Energy Information Administration NEMS Macroeconomic Activity...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    of employment by industry is industrial output. Both current and lagged output values enter in the employment specification, reflecting the tendency of firms to hire employees in...

  14. Microsoft Word - macroeconomic_aeo2012.docx

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Gross State Product The MAM projects regional gross regional product in real per capita terms. The equations are in log form. There is an estimated equation for each of the nine...

  15. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM...

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update

    Gross State Product The MAM projects regional gross regional product in real per capita terms. The equations are in log form. There is an estimated equation for each of the nine...

  16. Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

    SciTech Connect

    B. Faybishenko

    2006-09-11

    At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing them with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.

  17. Validation of a 20-year forecast of US childhood lead poisoning: Updated prospects for 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobs, David E. . E-mail: dejacobs@starpower.net; Nevin, Rick

    2006-11-15

    We forecast childhood lead poisoning and residential lead paint hazard prevalence for 1990-2010, based on a previously unvalidated model that combines national blood lead data with three different housing data sets. The housing data sets, which describe trends in housing demolition, rehabilitation, window replacement, and lead paint, are the American Housing Survey, the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, and the National Lead Paint Survey. Blood lead data are principally from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. New data now make it possible to validate the midpoint of the forecast time period. For the year 2000, the model predicted 23.3 million pre-1960 housing units with lead paint hazards, compared to an empirical HUD estimate of 20.6 million units. Further, the model predicted 498,000 children with elevated blood lead levels (EBL) in 2000, compared to a CDC empirical estimate of 434,000. The model predictions were well within 95% confidence intervals of empirical estimates for both residential lead paint hazard and blood lead outcome measures. The model shows that window replacement explains a large part of the dramatic reduction in lead poisoning that occurred from 1990 to 2000. Here, the construction of the model is described and updated through 2010 using new data. Further declines in childhood lead poisoning are achievable, but the goal of eliminating children's blood lead levels {>=}10 {mu}g/dL by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without additional action. A window replacement policy will yield multiple benefits of lead poisoning prevention, increased home energy efficiency, decreased power plant emissions, improved housing affordability, and other previously unrecognized benefits. Finally, combining housing and health data could be applied to forecasting other housing-related diseases and injuries.

  18. U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    U.S. oil production forecast update reflects lower rig count Lower oil prices and fewer rigs drilling for crude oil are expected to slow U.S. oil production growth this year and in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is still expected to average 9.2 million barrels per day this year. That's up half a million barrels per day from last year and the highest output level in more than four decades. A substantial part of the year-over-year increase reflects rapid production growth throughout 2014.

  19. Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2014-08-29

    With declining production costs and increasing technical capabilities, LED adoption has recently gained momentum in general illumination applications. This is a positive development for our energy infrastructure, as LEDs use significantly less electricity per lumen produced than many traditional lighting technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications examines the expected market penetration and resulting energy savings of light-emitting diode, or LED, lamps and luminaires from today through 2030.

  20. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    SciTech Connect

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  1. Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.

  2. Ultrasonic inspection apparatus and method using a focused wave device

    DOEpatents

    Gieske, John H.; Roach, Dennis P.; Walkington, Phillip D.

    2001-01-01

    An ultrasonic pulse echo inspection apparatus and method for detecting structural failures. A focus lens is coupled to the transducer to focus the ultrasonic signal on an area to be inspected and a stop is placed in the focus lens to block selected ultrasonic waves. Other waves are not blocked and are transmitted through the structure to arrive at interfaces therein concurrently to produce an echo response with significantly less distortion.

  3. Focus Group Meeting (Activities Status) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    January 20, 2011 The primary purpose of the January 20 Focus Group Meeting was to review the most recent status of health, safety and security improvement activities, and to identify 2011 strategic path forward. Documents Available for Download Meeting Agenda (34.76 KB) Meeting Summary (61.22 KB) Meeting Participants (22.82 KB) More Documents & Publications Focus Group Meeting (Activities Status) Work Group Telecom (Draft Charters) Focus Group Meeting (Topical Wrap-Up

  4. Focus Group Meeting (Topical Meeting) | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Meeting Date: June 11, 2009 Documents Available for Download Meeting Agenda (17.51 KB) Meeting Summary/Participants (43.82 KB) Task Schedule (26.2 KB) EFCOG Overview (894.09 KB) Assessing Training Gaps in ORPS (301.26 KB) Oversight and Enforcement Inspection Schedule (34.62 KB) More Documents & Publications Focus Group Meeting (Activities Status) Focus Group Meeting (Activities Status) Focus Group Meeting (Topical Wrap-Up)

  5. DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials | Department of

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Energy Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials DOE Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials The U.S. Department of Energy, through the Office of Science (Basic Energy Sciences) and the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (Fuel Cell Technologies) held a Theory Focus Session on Hydrogen Storage Materials on May 18, 2006 in Crystal City, Va., in conjunction with the DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review. The meeting provided an opportunity for experts in the

  6. Attune acoustic focusing cytometer brings technology developed at LANL to

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    the marketplace Attune acoustic focusing cytometer Attune acoustic focusing cytometer brings technology developed at LANL to the marketplace Life Technologies Corporation recently announced the release of the Attune Acoustic Focusing Cytometer. January 7, 2010 Los Alamos National Laboratory sits on top of a once-remote mesa in northern New Mexico with the Jemez mountains as a backdrop to research and innovation covering multi-disciplines from bioscience, sustainable energy sources, to plasma

  7. Focus Series: Maine — Residential Direct Install Program

    Energy.gov [DOE]

    Better Buildings Neighborhood Program Focus Series: Maine—Residential Direct Install Program: Residential Air Sealing Program Drives Maine Home Energy Savings Through the Roof.

  8. Proton Acceleration: New Developments in Energy Increase, Focusing...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    ... Country of Publication: United States Language: English Subject: 43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS; ACCELERATION; ACCELERATORS; BRIGHTNESS; FOCUSING; ION BEAMS; ION SOURCES; LASERS; PLASMA; ...

  9. Figure 1. Project Area, Focused Study Area, Potential Access...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Page 4 of 8 Figure 1. Project Area, Focused Study Area, Potential Access Agreement Land, and Land Not Suitable for Conveyance...

  10. International Working Group Meeting Focuses on Nuclear Power...

    Energy Saver

    Needs International Working Group Meeting Focuses on Nuclear Power Infrastructure Development and Needs June 2, 2010 - 12:02pm Addthis VIENNA, Austria - The multi-nation ...

  11. LDRD symposium focuses on materials in extremes, big data, and...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    LDRD symposium focuses on materials in extremes, big data, and energy use impacts | National Nuclear Security Administration Facebook Twitter Youtube Flickr RSS People Mission...

  12. Ordered Nanoparticle Catalysts article is an Energy Focus > Archived...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Ordered Nanoparticle Catalysts article is an Energy Focus January 24th, 2013 A Nature Materials paper on ordered nanoparticle catalysts has been highlighted as an "Energy...

  13. Recovery Act Provides Big Boost with a Nanoscale Focus | Department...

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    House to Focus on Programmatic Successes Achieved Under ARRA Funding An operator uses robotic manipulators to process RH TRU. WASTE DISPOSITION PROJECT MAKES GREAT STRIDES AT THE...

  14. Path to Deterministic Single Donor Devices using Focused Top...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Path to Deterministic Single Donor Devices using Focused Top-Down Ion Implantation. Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Path to Deterministic Single Donor Devices using ...

  15. Frontiers in Science Lectures focus on saving energy through...

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    Frontiers in Science Lectures Frontiers in Science Lectures focus on saving energy through ... of the Laboratory's Superconductivity Technology Center, discusses applications ...

  16. Focus Series: Philadelphia Energyworks: In the City of Brotherly...

    Energy Saver

    Sharing Know-How Leads to Sustainability Focus Series: Philadelphia Energyworks: In the City of Brotherly Love, Sharing Know-How Leads to Sustainability Abridged transcript of an ...

  17. Accelerating Cleanup focus on 2006 | Department of Energy

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    focus on 2006 More Documents & Publications EIS-0026-S2: Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement EIS-0200-SA-01: Supplement Analysis EIS-0026-SA-05: Supplement Analysis

  18. Energy Focus Inc formerly Fiberstars | Open Energy Information

    OpenEI (Open Energy Information) [EERE & EIA]

    "","title":"","link":null,"lat":41.38712,"lon":-81.434401,"alt":0,"address":"","icon":"","group":"","inlineLabel":"","visitedicon":"" Hide Map References: Energy Focus Inc...

  19. Delivering Renewable Hydrogen: A Focus on Near-Term Applications

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    Delivering Renewable Hydrogen A Focus on Near-Term Applications A One-Day Workshop Presented by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the California Fuel Cell Partnership ...

  20. Microsphere-chain waveguides: Focusing and transport properties

    SciTech Connect

    Allen, Kenneth W., E-mail: kallen62@uncc.edu; Astratov, Vasily N., E-mail: astratov@uncc.edu [Department of Physics and Optical Science, Center for Optoelectronics and Optical Communications, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina 28223-0001 (United States); Air Force Research Laboratory, Sensors Directorate, Wright Patterson AFB, Ohio 45433 (United States); Darafsheh, Arash; Abolmaali, Farzaneh [Department of Physics and Optical Science, Center for Optoelectronics and Optical Communications, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, North Carolina 28223-0001 (United States); Mojaverian, Neda; Limberopoulos, Nicholaos I. [Air Force Research Laboratory, Sensors Directorate, Wright Patterson AFB, Ohio 45433 (United States); Lupu, Anatole [Institut d'Electronique Fondamentale, UMR 8622 CNRS, Universite Paris-Sud XI, 91405 Orsay (France)

    2014-07-14

    It is shown that the focusing properties of polystyrene microsphere-chain waveguides (MCWs) formed by sufficiently large spheres (D???20?, where D is the sphere diameter and ? is the wavelength of light) scale with the sphere diameter as predicted by geometrical optics. However, this scaling behavior does not hold for mesoscale MCWs with D???10? resulting in a periodical focusing with gradually reducing beam waists and in extremely small propagation losses. The observed effects are related to properties of nanojet-induced and periodically focused modes in such structures. The results can be used for developing focusing microprobes, laser scalpels, and polarization filters.

  1. Diffraction crystals for sagittally focusing x-rays

    DOEpatents

    Ice, G.E.; Sparks, C.J. Jr.

    1982-06-07

    The invention is a new type of diffraction crystal designed for sagittally focusing photons of various energies. The invention is based on the discovery that such focusing is not obtainable with conventional crystals because of distortion resulting from anticlastic curvature. The new crystal comprises a monocrystalline base having a front face contoured for sagittally focusing photons and a back face provided with rigid, upstanding, stiffening ribs restricting anticlastic curvature. When mounted in a suitable bending device, the reflecting face of the crystal can be adjusted to focus photons having any one of a range of energies.

  2. Spatiotemporal focusing dynamics in plasmas at X-ray wavelength

    SciTech Connect

    Sharma, A., E-mail: a-physics2001@yahoo.com; Tibai, Z. [Institute of Physics, University of Pecs, Pecs7624 (Hungary)] [Institute of Physics, University of Pecs, Pecs7624 (Hungary); Hebling, J. [Institute of Physics, University of Pecs, Pecs7624 (Hungary) [Institute of Physics, University of Pecs, Pecs7624 (Hungary); Szentagothai Research Centre, University of Pecs, Pecs-7624 (Hungary); Mishra, S. K. [Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar (India)] [Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar (India)

    2014-03-15

    Using a finite curvature beam, we investigate here the spatiotemporal focusing dynamics of a laser pulse in plasmas at X-ray wavelength. We trace the dependence of curvature parameter on the focusing of laser pulse and recognize that the self-focusing in plasma is more intense for the X-ray laser pulse with curved wavefront than with flat wavefront. The simulation results demonstrate that spatiotemporal focusing dynamics in plasmas can be controlled with the appropriate choice of beam-plasma parameters to explore the high intensity effects in X-ray regime.

  3. May 19, 2011, HSS/Union Focus Group Meeting - Agenda

    Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) (indexed site)

    16-11 HSS Focus Group Telecom Meeting Worker Health, Safety and Security Improvement ... Pete Stafford * Worker Health and Safety Topical Discussions StatusPrioritiesPath ...

  4. Focus Series: Maine - Residential Direct Install Program | Department...

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Better Buildings Neighborhood Program Focus Series: Maine - Residential Direct Install Program: Residential Air Sealing Program Drives Maine Home Energy Savings Through the Roof. ...

  5. Nano-focused Bremstrahlung Isochromat Spectroscopy (nBIS) Determinatio...

    Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)

    Spectroscopy (nBIS) Determination of the Unoccupied Electronic Structure of Pu Citation Details In-Document Search Title: Nano-focused Bremstrahlung Isochromat Spectroscopy ...

  6. Diffraction crystal for sagittally focusing x-rays

    DOEpatents

    Ice, Gene E.; Sparks, Jr., Cullie J.

    1984-01-01

    The invention is a new type of diffraction crystal designed for sagittally focusing photons of various energies. The invention is based on the discovery that such focusing is not obtainable with conventional crystals because of distortion resulting from anticlastic curvature. The new crystal comprises a monocrystalline base having a front face contoured for sagittally focusing photons and a back face provided with rigid, upstanding, stiffening ribs restricting anticlastic curvature. When mounted in a suitable bending device, the reflecting face of the crystal can be adjusted to focus photons having any one of a range of energies.

  7. Focus Group Meeting (Topical Wrap-Up) | Department of Energy

    Energy.gov [DOE] (indexed site)

    Former WorkerEEOIPCA Activities and Initiatives HSSUnion Training Work Recommendations NTC Meeting wLocal Labor Leaders More Documents & Publications Focus Group Meeting...

  8. Energy-Focused Trade Mission Will Yield Positive Effects for...

    Office of Environmental Management (EM)

    landed in China to lead a presidential trade mission focused on connecting U.S. businesses with opportunities in the green infrastructure and energy efficiency industries. ...

  9. RACORO Forecasting

    U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) - all webpages (Extended Search)

    7a. Space Heating by Census Region and Climate Zone, Million U.S. Households, 1993 Space Heating Characteristics RSE Column Factor: Total Census Region Climate Zone RSE Row Factors Northeast Midwest South West Fewer than 2,000 CDD and -- More than 2,000 CDD and Few- er than 4,000 HDD More than 7,000 HDD 5,500 to 7,000 HDD 4,000 to 5,499 HDD Few- er than 4,000 HDD 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Total ................................................. 96.6 19.5 23.3 33.5 20.4 8.7 26.5

  10. Crude oil and alternate energy production forecasts for the twenty-first century: The end of the hydrocarbon era

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, J.D.

    1997-08-01

    Predictions of production rates and ultimate recovery of crude oil are needed for intelligent planning and timely action to ensure the continuous flow of energy required by the world`s increasing population and expanding economies. Crude oil will be able to supply increasing demand until peak world production is reached. The energy gap caused by declining conventional oil production must then be filled by expanding production of coal, heavy oil and oil shales, nuclear and hydroelectric power, and renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal). Declining oil production forecasts are based on current estimated ultimate recoverable conventional crude oil resources of 329 billion barrels for the United States and close to 3 trillion barrels for the world. Peak world crude oil production is forecast to occur in 2020 at 90 million barrels per day. Conventional crude oil production in the United States is forecast to terminate by about 2090, and world production will be close to exhaustion by 2100.

  11. Development of a focused ion beam micromachining system

    SciTech Connect

    Pellerin, J.G.; Griffis, D.; Russell, P.E.

    1988-12-01

    Focused ion beams are currently being investigated for many submicron fabrication and analytical purposes. An FIB micromachining system consisting of a UHV vacuum system, a liquid metal ion gun, and a control and data acquisition computer has been constructed. This system is being used to develop nanofabrication and nanomachining techniques involving focused ion beams and scanning tunneling microscopes.

  12. Wiggler plane focusing in a linear free electron laser

    DOEpatents

    Scharlemann, E.T.

    1985-11-21

    This disclosure describes a free electron laser apparatus that provides a magnetic centering force to turn or focus a non-axial electron toward the longitudinal axis as desired. The focusing effect is provided by wiggler magnet pole faces that are approximately parabolically shaped.

  13. Wiggler plane focusing in a linear free electron laser

    DOEpatents

    Scharlemann, E.T.

    1988-02-23

    Free electron laser apparatus that provides a magnetic centering force to turn or focus a non-axial electron toward the longitudinal axis as desired. The focusing effect is provided by wiggler magnet pole faces that are approximately parabolically shaped. 5 figs.

  14. Incorporating Uncertainty of Wind Power Generation Forecast into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Huang, Zhenyu; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2011-06-23

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the 'flying-brick' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through EMS integration illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems in control rooms.

  15. Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures

    SciTech Connect

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa

    2010-10-19

    In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.

  16. Apparatus, systems, and methods for ultrasound synthetic aperature focusing

    DOEpatents

    Schuster, George J.; Crawford, Susan L.; Doctor, Steven R.; Harris, Robert V.

    2005-04-12

    One form of the present invention is a technique for interrogating a sample with ultrasound which includes: generating ultrasonic energy data corresponding to a volume of a sample and performing a synthetic aperture focusing technique on the ultrasonic energy data. The synthetic aperture focusing technique includes: defining a number of hyperbolic surfaces which extend through the volume at different depths and a corresponding number of multiple element accumulation vectors, performing a focused element calculation procedure for a group of vectors which are representative of the interior of a designated aperture, performing another focused element calculation procedure for vectors corresponding to the boundary of the aperture, and providing an image corresponding to features of the sample in accordance with the synthetic aperture focusing technique.

  17. Measurements and simulations of focused beam for orthovoltage therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Abbas, Hassan; Mahato, Dip N.; Satti, Jahangir; MacDonald, C. A.

    2014-04-15

    Purpose: Megavoltage photon beams are typically used for therapy because of their skin-sparing effect. However, a focused low-energy x-ray beam would also be skin sparing, and would have a higher dose concentration at the focal spot. Such a beam can be produced with polycapillary optics. MCNP5 was used to model dose profiles for a scanned focused beam, using measured beam parameters. The potential of low energy focused x-ray beams for radiation therapy was assessed. Methods: A polycapillary optic was used to focus the x-ray beam from a tungsten source. The optic was characterized and measurements were performed at 50 kV. PMMA blocks of varying thicknesses were placed between optic and the focal spot to observe any variation in the focusing of the beam after passing through the tissue-equivalent material. The measured energy spectrum was used to model the focused beam in MCNP5. A source card (SDEF) in MCNP5 was used to simulate the converging x-ray beam. Dose calculations were performed inside a breast tissue phantom. Results: The measured focal spot size for the polycapillary optic was 0.2 mm with a depth of field of 5 mm. The measured focal spot remained unchanged through 40 mm of phantom thickness. The calculated depth dose curve inside the breast tissue showed a dose peak several centimeters below the skin with a sharp dose fall off around the focus. The percent dose falls below 10% within 5 mm of the focus. It was shown that rotating the optic during scanning would preserve the skin-sparing effect of the focused beam. Conclusions: Low energy focused x-ray beams could be used to irradiate tumors inside soft tissue within 5 cm of the surface.

  18. Macro-Industrial Working Group: meeting 1

    Energy Information Administration (EIA) (indexed site)

    30 2013 Macroeconomic team: Kay Smith, Russ Tarver, Elizabeth Sendich and Vipin Arora Briefing on Macroeconomic Reference Case for the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Macroeconomic/Industrial Working Group Meeting Presentation Goals * The Reference Case presented is the GI May Long-term Trend forecast. Due to the comprehensive revision of the GDP accounts, released at the end of July, we will not update the macro projection to an August baseline in order to keep on the AEO2014 schedule. The GI August

  19. Developing an industrial end-use forecast: A case study at the Los Angeles department of water and power

    SciTech Connect

    Mureau, T.H.; Francis, D.M.

    1995-05-01

    The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) uses INFORM 1.0 to forecast industrial sector energy. INFORM 1.0 provides an end-use framework that can be used to forecast electricity, natural gas or other fuels consumption. Included with INFORM 1.0 is a default date set including the input data and equations necessary to solve each model. LADWP has substituted service area specific data for the default data wherever possible. This paper briefly describes the steps LADWP follows in developing those inputs and application in INFORM 1.0.

  20. The performance of magnetic lens for focusing VCN-SANS.

    SciTech Connect

    Yamada, M.; Iwashita, Y.; Kanaya, T.; Ichikawa, M.; Tongu, H.; Kennedy, S. J.; Shimizu, H. M.; Mishima, K.; Yamada, N. L.; Hirota, K.; Carpenter, J..; Lal, J.; Anderson, K.; Geltenbort, P.; Guerard, B.; Manzin, G.; Hino, M.; Kitaguchi, M.; Bleuel, M.; NOP Collaboration

    2011-01-01

    We have developed a prototype rotating-permanent magnet sextupole lens (named rot-PMSx) for more efficient experiments with neutron beams in time of flight (ToF) mode. This lens can modulate the focusing strength over range 1.5 x 10{sup 4} T/m{sup 2} {le} g' {le} 5.9 x 10{sup 4} T/m{sup 2}. Synchronization between the modulation and the beam pulse produces a focused beam without significant chromatic aberration. We anticipate that this lens could be utilized in focusing small angle neutron scattering (SANS) instruments for novel approach to high resolution SANS. We carried out experiments testing the principle of this lens at the very cold neutron (VCN) beamline (PF2) at Institut Laue-Langevin (ILL), France. The focused beam image size at the detector was kept constant at the same beam size as the source ({approx} 3 mm) over a wavelength range of 30 {angstrom} {le} {lambda} {le} 48 {angstrom} in focal length of {approx} 1.14 m. The flux gain was about 12 relative to a beam without focusing, and the depth of focus was quite large. These results show the good performance of this lens and the system. Thereupon we have demonstrated the performance of this test bed for high resolution focusing of VCN-SANS for a well-studied softmatter sample; a deuterium oxide solution of Pluronic F127, an (PEO){sub 100}(PPO){sub 65}(PEO){sub 100} tri-block copolymer in deuterium oxide. The results of the focusing experiment and the focusing VCN-SANS are presented.