You need JavaScript to view this

Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods

Technical Report:

Abstract

The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.
Publication Date:
Jan 01, 1984
Product Type:
Technical Report
Report Number:
EFN-10
Reference Number:
NOR-84-07213; EDB-85-094480
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; ENERGY CONSUMPTION; FORECASTING; RELIABILITY; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; ENERGY DEMAND; ENERGY POLICY; ENERGY SUPPLIES; PRICES; DEMAND; ECONOMICS; GOVERNMENT POLICIES; 292000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply, Demand & Forecasting
OSTI ID:
8119488
Research Organizations:
Energiforskningsnaemnden, Stockholm (Sweden)
Country of Origin:
Sweden
Language:
Swedish
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: ON: DE85750835
Availability:
NTIS (US Sales Only), PC A09/MF A01.
Submitting Site:
NORD
Size:
Pages: 198
Announcement Date:
Mar 14, 2013

Technical Report:

Citation Formats

Svensson, J E, and Mogren, A. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods. Sweden: N. p., 1984. Web.
Svensson, J E, & Mogren, A. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods. Sweden.
Svensson, J E, and Mogren, A. 1984. "Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods." Sweden.
@misc{etde_8119488,
title = {Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods}
author = {Svensson, J E, and Mogren, A}
abstractNote = {The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.}
place = {Sweden}
year = {1984}
month = {Jan}
}