Abstract
This study is to acquaint the oil geologist, reservoir engineer, and manager with modern methods of appraising geological/technical projects and decision problems under uncertainty. Uncertainty attaches to any appraisal of investment projects whose income lies in the future. The greater that uncertainty, the less important become the appraisal methods proper while the computation procedures concerning uncertainty gain in significance. There are briefly discussed the tools of risk determination, i.e., mathematical statistics and probability theory, and some of the most common methods of quantifying the uncertainty are explained. The best known methods of decision finding under multivalent or uncertain expectations, such as conditional and sensibility analyses, minimax and minimax-risk rule, and preference theory are set forth. The risk is defined, and the most common methods of genuine risk determination in exploration and exploitation are discussed. Practical examples illustrate the solution of decision problems under uncertainty, and examples of genuine risk determination are furnished. (29 refs.)
Citation Formats
Voegl, E.
Quantification of uncertainty and of profitability in petroleum and natural gas exploration and production.
Germany: N. p.,
1970.
Web.
Voegl, E.
Quantification of uncertainty and of profitability in petroleum and natural gas exploration and production.
Germany.
Voegl, E.
1970.
"Quantification of uncertainty and of profitability in petroleum and natural gas exploration and production."
Germany.
@misc{etde_6987159,
title = {Quantification of uncertainty and of profitability in petroleum and natural gas exploration and production}
author = {Voegl, E}
abstractNote = {This study is to acquaint the oil geologist, reservoir engineer, and manager with modern methods of appraising geological/technical projects and decision problems under uncertainty. Uncertainty attaches to any appraisal of investment projects whose income lies in the future. The greater that uncertainty, the less important become the appraisal methods proper while the computation procedures concerning uncertainty gain in significance. There are briefly discussed the tools of risk determination, i.e., mathematical statistics and probability theory, and some of the most common methods of quantifying the uncertainty are explained. The best known methods of decision finding under multivalent or uncertain expectations, such as conditional and sensibility analyses, minimax and minimax-risk rule, and preference theory are set forth. The risk is defined, and the most common methods of genuine risk determination in exploration and exploitation are discussed. Practical examples illustrate the solution of decision problems under uncertainty, and examples of genuine risk determination are furnished. (29 refs.)}
journal = []
volume = {86:7}
journal type = {AC}
place = {Germany}
year = {1970}
month = {Jul}
}
title = {Quantification of uncertainty and of profitability in petroleum and natural gas exploration and production}
author = {Voegl, E}
abstractNote = {This study is to acquaint the oil geologist, reservoir engineer, and manager with modern methods of appraising geological/technical projects and decision problems under uncertainty. Uncertainty attaches to any appraisal of investment projects whose income lies in the future. The greater that uncertainty, the less important become the appraisal methods proper while the computation procedures concerning uncertainty gain in significance. There are briefly discussed the tools of risk determination, i.e., mathematical statistics and probability theory, and some of the most common methods of quantifying the uncertainty are explained. The best known methods of decision finding under multivalent or uncertain expectations, such as conditional and sensibility analyses, minimax and minimax-risk rule, and preference theory are set forth. The risk is defined, and the most common methods of genuine risk determination in exploration and exploitation are discussed. Practical examples illustrate the solution of decision problems under uncertainty, and examples of genuine risk determination are furnished. (29 refs.)}
journal = []
volume = {86:7}
journal type = {AC}
place = {Germany}
year = {1970}
month = {Jul}
}