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Effects of human activities on global climate

Abstract

At present it is difficult to make any predictions for the natural course of climate in the next several decades. However by using climate models, predictions of the cause of climate changes as a result of anthropogenic influences can be made, other external factors remaining the same. Experiments with a number of different models have converged on approximately the same conclusions: the largest single effect of human activities on climate is due to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel combustion, i.e., air and thermal pollution, which contributes to a warming of the lower atmosphere; the best estimate of the warming of the mean surface temperature of the earth is about 1C by 2000 AD and 3C by 2050 AD with 3 to 5 times that increase in polar regions, and an uncertainty of roughly a factor of two. These conclusions assume a continued quasi exponential rate of release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Absorption of the added carbon dioxide is expected to take between 1000 and 1500 years. If all economically recoverable fossil fuel is burned in the next few centuries, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide would increase by 5 to 8 times. An  More>>
Authors:
Publication Date:
Jan 01, 1977
Product Type:
Book
Reference Number:
ERA-03-056400; EDB-78-119238
Resource Relation:
Related Information: WMO Report 486
Subject:
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CARBON DIOXIDE; ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION; EARTH ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATES; FOSSIL FUELS; COMBUSTION PRODUCTS; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; AIR POLLUTION; ANTARCTIC REGIONS; ARCTIC REGIONS; ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS; FORECASTING; GLOBAL ASPECTS; LEVELS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SEAS; CARBON COMPOUNDS; CARBON OXIDES; CHALCOGENIDES; ENERGY SOURCES; FUELS; OXIDES; OXYGEN COMPOUNDS; POLAR REGIONS; POLLUTION; SURFACE WATERS; 010900* - Coal, Lignite, & Peat- Environmental Aspects; 500200 - Environment, Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (-1989)
OSTI ID:
6675234
Country of Origin:
WMO
Language:
English
Submitting Site:
CLA
Size:
Pages: 49
Announcement Date:
May 13, 2001

Citation Formats

Kellogg, W W. Effects of human activities on global climate. WMO: N. p., 1977. Web.
Kellogg, W W. Effects of human activities on global climate. WMO.
Kellogg, W W. 1977. "Effects of human activities on global climate." WMO.
@misc{etde_6675234,
title = {Effects of human activities on global climate}
author = {Kellogg, W W}
abstractNote = {At present it is difficult to make any predictions for the natural course of climate in the next several decades. However by using climate models, predictions of the cause of climate changes as a result of anthropogenic influences can be made, other external factors remaining the same. Experiments with a number of different models have converged on approximately the same conclusions: the largest single effect of human activities on climate is due to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel combustion, i.e., air and thermal pollution, which contributes to a warming of the lower atmosphere; the best estimate of the warming of the mean surface temperature of the earth is about 1C by 2000 AD and 3C by 2050 AD with 3 to 5 times that increase in polar regions, and an uncertainty of roughly a factor of two. These conclusions assume a continued quasi exponential rate of release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Absorption of the added carbon dioxide is expected to take between 1000 and 1500 years. If all economically recoverable fossil fuel is burned in the next few centuries, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide would increase by 5 to 8 times. An example of a natural warming on a similar scale to that expected in the middle of the next century occurred 4000 to 8000 years ago. Generally there was more rainfall especially over the present sub-tropical deserts, but some regions in middle and high latitudes were drier than now. The extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice would be influenced. The total volume of the major ice sheets would change, but a change in sea level cannot yet be predicted with any confidence.}
place = {WMO}
year = {1977}
month = {Jan}
}