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Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries

Journal Article:

Abstract

The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long-and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps. The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best. The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the  More>>
Publication Date:
Jan 01, 1979
Product Type:
Journal Article
Reference Number:
ERA-06-016235; EDB-81-048206
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Pure Appl. Geophys.; (Switzerland); Journal Volume: 117
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; EARTH CRUST; SEISMICITY; EARTHQUAKES; FORECASTING; GLOBAL ASPECTS; MAPS; PLATE TECTONICS; SEISMIC EVENTS; TECTONICS; 580201* - Geophysics- Seismology & Tectonics- (1980-1989)
OSTI ID:
6596483
Research Organizations:
Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY
Country of Origin:
Switzerland
Language:
English
Contract Number:
EY-76-S-02-3134B
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: CODEN: PAGYA
Submitting Site:
TIC
Size:
Pages: 1081-1147
Announcement Date:
Apr 01, 1981

Journal Article:

Citation Formats

McCann, W R, Nishenko, S P, Sykes, L R, and Krause, J. Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries. Switzerland: N. p., 1979. Web.
McCann, W R, Nishenko, S P, Sykes, L R, & Krause, J. Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries. Switzerland.
McCann, W R, Nishenko, S P, Sykes, L R, and Krause, J. 1979. "Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries." Switzerland.
@misc{etde_6596483,
title = {Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries}
author = {McCann, W R, Nishenko, S P, Sykes, L R, and Krause, J}
abstractNote = {The theory of plate tectonics provides a basic framework for evaluating the potential for future great earthquakes to occur along major plate boundaries. Along most of the transform and convergent plate boundaries considered in this paper, the majority of seismic slip occurs during large earthquakes, i.e., those of magnitude 7 or greater. The concepts that rupture zones, as delineated by aftershocks, tend to abut rather than overlap, and large events occur in regions with histories of both long-and short-term seismic quiescence are used in this paper to delineate major seismic gaps. The term seismic gap is taken to refer to any region along an active plate boundary that has not experienced a large thrust or strike-slip earthquake for more than 30 years. A region of high seismic potential is a seismic gap that, for historic or tectonic reasons, is considered likely to produce a large shock during the next few decades. The seismic gap technique provides estimates of the location, size of future events and origin time to within a few tens of years at best. The accompanying map summarizes six categories of seismic potential for major plate boundaries in and around the margins of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean, South Sandwich and Sunda (Indonesia) regions for the next few decades. These six categories are meant to be interpreted as forecasts of the location and size of future large shocks and should not be considered to be predictions in which a precise estimate of the time of occurrence is specified. The categories of potential assigned here provide a rationale for assigning priorities for instrumentation, for future studies aimed at predicting large earthquakes and for making estimates of tsunami potential.}
journal = {Pure Appl. Geophys.; (Switzerland)}
volume = {117}
journal type = {AC}
place = {Switzerland}
year = {1979}
month = {Jan}
}