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Adapting to climate change in a forest-based land use system. A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

Current climate models show an increase of 3 deg C by year 2100 for the state of Himachal Pradesh. The change in rainfall is difficult to predict, a range of -20% to +20% is suggested from different models. Dynamic vegetation modelling shows that under moderate climatic change there could be an 11% increase in the total area under tree cover in Himachal Pradesh. There will be a north-eastwards migration of forest types as cold habitat biomes are replaced by warm weather species. Current anthropogenic pressure from livestock management activities, unsustainable forest product exploitation and habitat fragmentation will probably outweigh any direct impacts of climate change on vegetation. Consequently, the change in the area under different forest types and the species composition within these forest types will differ from model predictions. It is likely that more competitive and robust species such as Chir Pine and Blue Pine will survive and those species which are already overexploited such as the oaks and Deodar will become more endangered. Sustainable adaption strategies should aim at reducing the pressures from subsistence and commercial activities on forests: ongoing efforts in participatory forest management should be strengthened to reflect the interests of various stakeholders. The resilience of  More>>
Authors:
Deshingkar, P; Bradley, P N; Chadwick, M J; Leach, G; [1]  Kaul, O N; Banerjee, S P; Singh, B; Kanetkar, R [2] 
  1. Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)
  2. Tata Energy Research Inst., New Delhi (India)
Publication Date:
Dec 31, 1997
Product Type:
Technical Report
Report Number:
SEI-AEDC-3
Reference Number:
SCA: 540240; PA: SWD-98:007044; EDB-98:045761; NTS-98:004748; SN: 98001924051
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: 1997
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; INDIA; FORESTRY; LAND USE; CLIMATIC CHANGE; BIOLOGICAL ADAPTATION; WOOD FUELS; RAIN; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
OSTI ID:
595179
Research Organizations:
Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)
Country of Origin:
Sweden
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: ISSN 1400-7193; Other: ON: DE98739014; ISBN 91-88714-34-9; TRN: SE9807044
Availability:
OSTI as DE98739014
Submitting Site:
SWD
Size:
103 p.
Announcement Date:

Citation Formats

Deshingkar, P, Bradley, P N, Chadwick, M J, Leach, G, Kaul, O N, Banerjee, S P, Singh, B, and Kanetkar, R. Adapting to climate change in a forest-based land use system. A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India. Sweden: N. p., 1997. Web.
Deshingkar, P, Bradley, P N, Chadwick, M J, Leach, G, Kaul, O N, Banerjee, S P, Singh, B, & Kanetkar, R. Adapting to climate change in a forest-based land use system. A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India. Sweden.
Deshingkar, P, Bradley, P N, Chadwick, M J, Leach, G, Kaul, O N, Banerjee, S P, Singh, B, and Kanetkar, R. 1997. "Adapting to climate change in a forest-based land use system. A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India." Sweden.
@misc{etde_595179,
title = {Adapting to climate change in a forest-based land use system. A case study of Himachal Pradesh, India}
author = {Deshingkar, P, Bradley, P N, Chadwick, M J, Leach, G, Kaul, O N, Banerjee, S P, Singh, B, and Kanetkar, R}
abstractNote = {Current climate models show an increase of 3 deg C by year 2100 for the state of Himachal Pradesh. The change in rainfall is difficult to predict, a range of -20% to +20% is suggested from different models. Dynamic vegetation modelling shows that under moderate climatic change there could be an 11% increase in the total area under tree cover in Himachal Pradesh. There will be a north-eastwards migration of forest types as cold habitat biomes are replaced by warm weather species. Current anthropogenic pressure from livestock management activities, unsustainable forest product exploitation and habitat fragmentation will probably outweigh any direct impacts of climate change on vegetation. Consequently, the change in the area under different forest types and the species composition within these forest types will differ from model predictions. It is likely that more competitive and robust species such as Chir Pine and Blue Pine will survive and those species which are already overexploited such as the oaks and Deodar will become more endangered. Sustainable adaption strategies should aim at reducing the pressures from subsistence and commercial activities on forests: ongoing efforts in participatory forest management should be strengthened to reflect the interests of various stakeholders. The resilience of forest ecosystems to climate change can also be increased by identifying and planting tree species which can tolerate a wider range of climatic conditions. This will require government and donor commitment to invest in building the necessary institutional and research capacity 147 refs, 42 figs, 12 tabs}
place = {Sweden}
year = {1997}
month = {Dec}
}