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Energy demand patterns

Technical Report:

Abstract

This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in  More>>
Publication Date:
May 01, 1984
Product Type:
Technical Report
Report Number:
ERG-MR-2e
Reference Number:
ERA-10-031140; EDB-85-103367
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; ENERGY DEMAND; DECISION MAKING; ECONOMY; ENERGY ANALYSIS; ENERGY POLICY; FORECASTING; PLANNING; TECHNOLOGY IMPACTS; DEMAND; GOVERNMENT POLICIES; 292000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply, Demand & Forecasting
OSTI ID:
5744397
Research Organizations:
Energy Research Group, Ottawa (Canada)
Country of Origin:
Canada
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: ON: TI85901445
Availability:
Energy Research Group, P.O. Box 8500, Ottawa K1G 3H9, Canada.
Submitting Site:
HEDB
Size:
Pages: 55
Announcement Date:

Technical Report:

Citation Formats

Hoffmann, L, Schipper, L, Meyers, S, Sathaye, J, and Hara, Y. Energy demand patterns. Canada: N. p., 1984. Web.
Hoffmann, L, Schipper, L, Meyers, S, Sathaye, J, & Hara, Y. Energy demand patterns. Canada.
Hoffmann, L, Schipper, L, Meyers, S, Sathaye, J, and Hara, Y. 1984. "Energy demand patterns." Canada.
@misc{etde_5744397,
title = {Energy demand patterns}
author = {Hoffmann, L, Schipper, L, Meyers, S, Sathaye, J, and Hara, Y}
abstractNote = {This report brings together three papers on energy demand presented at the Energy Research Priorities Seminar held in Ottawa on 8-10 August 1983. The first paper suggests a framework in which energy demand studies may be organized if they are to be useful in policy-making. Disaggregation and the analysis of the chain of energy transformations are possible paths toward more stable and reliable parameters. The second paper points to another factor that leads to instability in sectoral parameters, namely a changeover from one technology to another; insofar as technologies producing a product (or service) vary in their energy intensity, a technological shift will also change the energy intensity of the product. Rapid technological change is characteristic of some sectors in developing countries, and may well account for the high aggregate GDP-elasticities of energy consumption observed. The third paper begins with estimates of these elasticities, which were greater than one for all the member countries of the Asian Development Bank in 1961-78. The high elasticities, together with extreme oil dependence, made them vulnerable to the drastic rise in the oil price after 1973. The author distinguishes three diverging patterns of national experience. The oil-surplus countries naturally gained from the rise in the oil price. Among oil-deficit countries, the newly industrialized countries expanded their exports so rapidly that the oil crisis no longer worried them. For the rest, balance of payments adjustments became a prime concern of policy. Whether they dealt with the oil bill by borrowing, by import substitution, or by demand restraint, the impact of energy on their growth was unmistakable. The paper also shows why energy-demand studies, and energy studies in general, deserve to be taken seriously. 16 refs., 4 figs., 18 tabs.}
place = {Canada}
year = {1984}
month = {May}
}