Abstract
In this paper stochastic simulation model of gas supply and consumption during heating season is described. The simulation of gas supply is based on constant import and domestic production and varying production of underground storage which depends on current needs and quantity of gas in the storage. The basis for consumption simulation is the stochastic relationship between gas consumption and mean daily air temperature and type of the day, expressed in the form of linear regression model. Mean daily air temperatures, as one of basic causes of daily gas consumption variations, are simulated, on the basis of statistical characteristics and own air temperature measurements, as a first order autoregression model. By using the developed simulation model the statistical characteristics (expectation, standard deviation) of daily gas consumption and the difference between maximum possible daily supply and consumption (delivery safety margin) are derived for all days in the season. The definition of gas delivery safety is given and critical delivery probabilities for all days in the season and different safety margins are determined. Also, statistical characteristics of critical delivery duration depending on gas reserves status for underground storage is predicted. Predicted gas storage delivery rate is compared against predicted requirements, and on
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Oklopcic, Z
[1]
- INA-Naftaplin, Zagreb (Croatia)
Citation Formats
Oklopcic, Z.
Simulation of gas supply and consumption during heating season; Simulacija opskrbe potrosaca plinom tijekom ogrjevne sezone.
Croatia: N. p.,
1996.
Web.
Oklopcic, Z.
Simulation of gas supply and consumption during heating season; Simulacija opskrbe potrosaca plinom tijekom ogrjevne sezone.
Croatia.
Oklopcic, Z.
1996.
"Simulation of gas supply and consumption during heating season; Simulacija opskrbe potrosaca plinom tijekom ogrjevne sezone."
Croatia.
@misc{etde_553584,
title = {Simulation of gas supply and consumption during heating season; Simulacija opskrbe potrosaca plinom tijekom ogrjevne sezone}
author = {Oklopcic, Z}
abstractNote = {In this paper stochastic simulation model of gas supply and consumption during heating season is described. The simulation of gas supply is based on constant import and domestic production and varying production of underground storage which depends on current needs and quantity of gas in the storage. The basis for consumption simulation is the stochastic relationship between gas consumption and mean daily air temperature and type of the day, expressed in the form of linear regression model. Mean daily air temperatures, as one of basic causes of daily gas consumption variations, are simulated, on the basis of statistical characteristics and own air temperature measurements, as a first order autoregression model. By using the developed simulation model the statistical characteristics (expectation, standard deviation) of daily gas consumption and the difference between maximum possible daily supply and consumption (delivery safety margin) are derived for all days in the season. The definition of gas delivery safety is given and critical delivery probabilities for all days in the season and different safety margins are determined. Also, statistical characteristics of critical delivery duration depending on gas reserves status for underground storage is predicted. Predicted gas storage delivery rate is compared against predicted requirements, and on the basis of this comparison possible bottlenecks in gas delivery to consumers and course of future actions are indicated. (author). 3 tabs., 10 figs., 6 refs.}
place = {Croatia}
year = {1996}
month = {Dec}
}
title = {Simulation of gas supply and consumption during heating season; Simulacija opskrbe potrosaca plinom tijekom ogrjevne sezone}
author = {Oklopcic, Z}
abstractNote = {In this paper stochastic simulation model of gas supply and consumption during heating season is described. The simulation of gas supply is based on constant import and domestic production and varying production of underground storage which depends on current needs and quantity of gas in the storage. The basis for consumption simulation is the stochastic relationship between gas consumption and mean daily air temperature and type of the day, expressed in the form of linear regression model. Mean daily air temperatures, as one of basic causes of daily gas consumption variations, are simulated, on the basis of statistical characteristics and own air temperature measurements, as a first order autoregression model. By using the developed simulation model the statistical characteristics (expectation, standard deviation) of daily gas consumption and the difference between maximum possible daily supply and consumption (delivery safety margin) are derived for all days in the season. The definition of gas delivery safety is given and critical delivery probabilities for all days in the season and different safety margins are determined. Also, statistical characteristics of critical delivery duration depending on gas reserves status for underground storage is predicted. Predicted gas storage delivery rate is compared against predicted requirements, and on the basis of this comparison possible bottlenecks in gas delivery to consumers and course of future actions are indicated. (author). 3 tabs., 10 figs., 6 refs.}
place = {Croatia}
year = {1996}
month = {Dec}
}