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Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

Abstract

Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.
Authors:
Glanc, Z; Kerner, A [1] 
  1. Energy Information Centre, Warsaw (Poland)
Publication Date:
Sep 01, 1997
Product Type:
Conference
Report Number:
IAEA-TECDOC-963; CONF-9509458-
Reference Number:
SCA: 290200; PA: AIX-28:077342; EDB-98:001566; SN: 97001881054
Resource Relation:
Conference: Workshop on practical issues related to the use of IAEA planning models with emphasis on the ENPEP package, Warsaw (Poland), 4-8 Sep 1995; Other Information: PBD: Sep 1997; Related Information: Is Part Of Energy and nuclear power planning using the IAEA`s ENPEP computer package. Proceedings of a workshop; PB: 285 p.
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY; ENERGY DEMAND; FORECASTING; ECONOMICS; ELECTRIC POWER; IAEA; PLANNING; POLAND; TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
OSTI ID:
550277
Research Organizations:
International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria)
Country of Origin:
IAEA
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: ISSN 1011-4289; Other: ON: DE98606235; TRN: XA9745302077342
Availability:
INIS; OSTI as DE98606235
Submitting Site:
INIS
Size:
pp. 107-124
Announcement Date:
Dec 23, 1997

Citation Formats

Glanc, Z, and Kerner, A. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data. IAEA: N. p., 1997. Web.
Glanc, Z, & Kerner, A. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data. IAEA.
Glanc, Z, and Kerner, A. 1997. "Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data." IAEA.
@misc{etde_550277,
title = {Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data}
author = {Glanc, Z, and Kerner, A}
abstractNote = {Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.}
place = {IAEA}
year = {1997}
month = {Sep}
}