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Econometric model of the petroleum industry. [Determining crude supply and outputs/prices of refinery products]

Journal Article:

Abstract

This paper describes a forty-two nonlinear equation model of the U.S. petroleum industry estimated over the period 1946 to 1973. The model specifies refinery outputs and prices as being simultaneously determined by market forces while the domestic output of crude oil is determined in a block-recursive segment of the model. The simultaneous behavioral equations are estimated with nonlinear two-stage least-squares adjusted to reflect the implications of autocorrelation for those equations where it appears to be a problem. A multi-period sample simulation, together with forecasts for 1974 and 1975 are used to evaluate the model's performance. Finally, it is used to forecast to 1985 under two scenarios and compared with the Federal Energy Administration's forecast for the same period. 2 figures, 8 tables, 38 references.
Authors:
Rice, P; [1]  Smith, V K
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab., TN
Publication Date:
Nov 01, 1977
Product Type:
Journal Article
Reference Number:
ERA-03-018439; EPA-04-002083; EDB-78-037439
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: J. Econometrics; (Netherlands); Journal Volume: 6:3
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 02 PETROLEUM; ENERGY MODELS; PETROLEUM; AVAILABILITY; PETROLEUM INDUSTRY; SIMULATION; PETROLEUM PRODUCTS; PRODUCTION; ECONOMETRICS; ECONOMIC ELASTICITY; ENERGY SUPPLIES; FORECASTING; LEAST SQUARE FIT; MARKET; NONLINEAR PROBLEMS; USA; ECONOMICS; ENERGY SOURCES; FOSSIL FUELS; FUELS; INDUSTRY; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD FIT; MONOPOLIES; NORTH AMERICA; NUMERICAL SOLUTION; 294002* - Energy Planning & Policy- Petroleum; 290100 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling; 020700 - Petroleum- Economics, Industrial, & Business Aspects
OSTI ID:
5285227
Country of Origin:
Netherlands
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: CODEN: JECMB
Submitting Site:
TIC
Size:
Pages: 263-287
Announcement Date:

Journal Article:

Citation Formats

Rice, P, and Smith, V K. Econometric model of the petroleum industry. [Determining crude supply and outputs/prices of refinery products]. Netherlands: N. p., 1977. Web.
Rice, P, & Smith, V K. Econometric model of the petroleum industry. [Determining crude supply and outputs/prices of refinery products]. Netherlands.
Rice, P, and Smith, V K. 1977. "Econometric model of the petroleum industry. [Determining crude supply and outputs/prices of refinery products]." Netherlands.
@misc{etde_5285227,
title = {Econometric model of the petroleum industry. [Determining crude supply and outputs/prices of refinery products]}
author = {Rice, P, and Smith, V K}
abstractNote = {This paper describes a forty-two nonlinear equation model of the U.S. petroleum industry estimated over the period 1946 to 1973. The model specifies refinery outputs and prices as being simultaneously determined by market forces while the domestic output of crude oil is determined in a block-recursive segment of the model. The simultaneous behavioral equations are estimated with nonlinear two-stage least-squares adjusted to reflect the implications of autocorrelation for those equations where it appears to be a problem. A multi-period sample simulation, together with forecasts for 1974 and 1975 are used to evaluate the model's performance. Finally, it is used to forecast to 1985 under two scenarios and compared with the Federal Energy Administration's forecast for the same period. 2 figures, 8 tables, 38 references.}
journal = {J. Econometrics; (Netherlands)}
volume = {6:3}
journal type = {AC}
place = {Netherlands}
year = {1977}
month = {Nov}
}