Abstract
This report undertakes a forecast of the Canadian petrochemicals industry, based on a cross-impact computer model. This model was designed to assist in determining relevant future conditions and their corresponding impact on one another. Industry data were obtained from questionnaires sent to major corporations. Respondents were asked to give their subjective interpretation of the probability of occurrence of future events in the areas of feedstocks, production, trade and distribution, research and technology, and government/industry structure. Skeleton scenarios were developed in each of these areas. Prognoses were made on the basis of the most popular pairs of cross-impact events, or where frequencies of response were at a sufficient level where interpretation of the result would be valid. Some conclusions reached are as follows. The impact of feedstocks will be related to the growing gap between supply and demand of natural gas, e.g. increased use of gas as feedstock will lead to higher production costs and possibly the use of coal gasification and other sources. The impact of production and trade will be in the area of price competition from producers in other countries and the development of new plants in Canada. New technology will depend on licensing arrangements, investment, and informational
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Citation Formats
None.
Canadian petrochemicals - what's next. A background and planning paper on the petrochemical industry.
Canada: N. p.,
1976.
Web.
None.
Canadian petrochemicals - what's next. A background and planning paper on the petrochemical industry.
Canada.
None.
1976.
"Canadian petrochemicals - what's next. A background and planning paper on the petrochemical industry."
Canada.
@misc{etde_5173464,
title = {Canadian petrochemicals - what's next. A background and planning paper on the petrochemical industry}
author = {None}
abstractNote = {This report undertakes a forecast of the Canadian petrochemicals industry, based on a cross-impact computer model. This model was designed to assist in determining relevant future conditions and their corresponding impact on one another. Industry data were obtained from questionnaires sent to major corporations. Respondents were asked to give their subjective interpretation of the probability of occurrence of future events in the areas of feedstocks, production, trade and distribution, research and technology, and government/industry structure. Skeleton scenarios were developed in each of these areas. Prognoses were made on the basis of the most popular pairs of cross-impact events, or where frequencies of response were at a sufficient level where interpretation of the result would be valid. Some conclusions reached are as follows. The impact of feedstocks will be related to the growing gap between supply and demand of natural gas, e.g. increased use of gas as feedstock will lead to higher production costs and possibly the use of coal gasification and other sources. The impact of production and trade will be in the area of price competition from producers in other countries and the development of new plants in Canada. New technology will depend on licensing arrangements, investment, and informational exchanges. Government policies will have a direct effect on the industry if a requirement of Canadian equity is implemented, with implications for foreign investment and bilateral agreements with the USA. 45 tabs.}
place = {Canada}
year = {1976}
month = {Jan}
}
title = {Canadian petrochemicals - what's next. A background and planning paper on the petrochemical industry}
author = {None}
abstractNote = {This report undertakes a forecast of the Canadian petrochemicals industry, based on a cross-impact computer model. This model was designed to assist in determining relevant future conditions and their corresponding impact on one another. Industry data were obtained from questionnaires sent to major corporations. Respondents were asked to give their subjective interpretation of the probability of occurrence of future events in the areas of feedstocks, production, trade and distribution, research and technology, and government/industry structure. Skeleton scenarios were developed in each of these areas. Prognoses were made on the basis of the most popular pairs of cross-impact events, or where frequencies of response were at a sufficient level where interpretation of the result would be valid. Some conclusions reached are as follows. The impact of feedstocks will be related to the growing gap between supply and demand of natural gas, e.g. increased use of gas as feedstock will lead to higher production costs and possibly the use of coal gasification and other sources. The impact of production and trade will be in the area of price competition from producers in other countries and the development of new plants in Canada. New technology will depend on licensing arrangements, investment, and informational exchanges. Government policies will have a direct effect on the industry if a requirement of Canadian equity is implemented, with implications for foreign investment and bilateral agreements with the USA. 45 tabs.}
place = {Canada}
year = {1976}
month = {Jan}
}