Abstract
The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such
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King-Clayton, L M;
Chapman, N A;
[1]
Kautsky, F;
[2]
Svensson, N O;
[3]
Marsily, G de;
[4]
Ledoux, E
[5]
- QuantiSci Ltd, Melton Mowbray (United Kingdom)
- Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden)
- Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Geology
- Univ. VI Paris (France)
- Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines, 77 - Fontainebleau (France)
Citation Formats
King-Clayton, L M, Chapman, N A, Kautsky, F, Svensson, N O, Marsily, G de, and Ledoux, E.
SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario.
Sweden: N. p.,
1995.
Web.
King-Clayton, L M, Chapman, N A, Kautsky, F, Svensson, N O, Marsily, G de, & Ledoux, E.
SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario.
Sweden.
King-Clayton, L M, Chapman, N A, Kautsky, F, Svensson, N O, Marsily, G de, and Ledoux, E.
1995.
"SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario."
Sweden.
@misc{etde_481053,
title = {SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario}
author = {King-Clayton, L M, Chapman, N A, Kautsky, F, Svensson, N O, Marsily, G de, and Ledoux, E}
abstractNote = {The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.}
place = {Sweden}
year = {1995}
month = {Dec}
}
title = {SITE-94. The central scenario for SITE-94: A climate change scenario}
author = {King-Clayton, L M, Chapman, N A, Kautsky, F, Svensson, N O, Marsily, G de, and Ledoux, E}
abstractNote = {The central scenario includes the following main components: a deterministic description of the most probable climatic state for Sweden (with special ref. to the Aespoe area) for the next c. 120,000 years, a description of the likely nature of the surface and geological environment in the area at each stage of the climate sequence selected, and quantitative information on how these changes might affect the disposal system. The climate models suggest glacial maxima at c. 5, 20, 60 and 100 thousand years from now. The Aespoe region is predicted to be significantly affected by the latter three glacial episodes, with the ice sheet reaching and covering the area during the latter two episodes (by up to c 2200m and 1200m thickness of ice, resp.). Permafrost thicknesses over the next 120,000 years have been calculated. Assumptions, estimates and alternatives to the prescribed climate evolution are discussed. Following definition of a realistic, albeit non-unique, climate sequence, the objective of scenario development is to provide an indicator of the physical, chemical and hydrogeological conditions at the front of and beneath the advancing and retreating ice sheets, with the aim of identifying critical aspects for Performance Assessment modelling. The effect of various factors, such as ice loading, development of permafrost, temperature changes and sea level changes are considered in terms of their impact on hydrogeology, groundwater chemistry, rock stress and surface environments. 183 refs.}
place = {Sweden}
year = {1995}
month = {Dec}
}