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Climate change experiments in Hamburg

Abstract

Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the  More>>
Authors:
Gubasch, U [1] 
  1. DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)
Publication Date:
Dec 31, 1995
Product Type:
Conference
Report Number:
SA-PUB-6/95; CONF-9508257-
Reference Number:
SCA: 540110; PA: FI-97:003092; EDB-97:028801; SN: 97001727851
Resource Relation:
Conference: SILMU conference on climate change, Helsinki (Finland), 22-25 Aug 1995; Other Information: DN: SILMU Research Programme; PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of International conference on past, present and future climate. Proceedings; Heikinheimo, P. [ed.]; PB: 490 p.
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS; FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY; FORECASTING; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
OSTI ID:
428574
Research Organizations:
Academy of Finland, Helsinki (Finland)
Country of Origin:
Finland
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: ON: DE97724948; ISBN 951-37-1721-6; TRN: FI9703092
Availability:
OSTI as DE97724948
Submitting Site:
FI
Size:
pp. 415-418
Announcement Date:
Feb 20, 1997

Citation Formats

Gubasch, U. Climate change experiments in Hamburg. Finland: N. p., 1995. Web.
Gubasch, U. Climate change experiments in Hamburg. Finland.
Gubasch, U. 1995. "Climate change experiments in Hamburg." Finland.
@misc{etde_428574,
title = {Climate change experiments in Hamburg}
author = {Gubasch, U}
abstractNote = {Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models}
place = {Finland}
year = {1995}
month = {Dec}
}