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Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change

Abstract

In this presentation part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. In the concept of climate change as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect it is generally assumed that the radiative forcings from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will result in a proportional or quasilinear global warming. Though correlations of this kind are known from palaeoclimate research, the variability of the climate seems to prevent the direct proof of a causal relation between recent greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature observations. In order to resolve the issue the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs), though still inadequate at present, is indispensable. Around the world some 10 leading GCMs exist which have been the subject of evaluation and intercomparison in a number of studies. Their results are regularly assessed in the IPCC process. A discussion on their performance in simulating present or past climates and the causes of their weak points shows that the depiction of clouds is a major weakness of GCMs. A second element which is virtually absent in GCMs are the feedbacks from natural biogeochemical cycles. These cycles are influenced by man in a  More>>
Authors:
Ham, J van; Beer, R.J. van; Builtjes, P J.H.; Roemer, M G.M.; [1]  Koennen, G P; [2]  Oerlemans, J [3] 
  1. TNO Inst. of Environmental Sciences, Delft (Netherlands)
  2. KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., de Bilt (Netherlands)
  3. Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Meteorological and Atmospheric Research
Publication Date:
Dec 31, 1995
Product Type:
Conference
Report Number:
NEI-FI-290-Vol.3; CONF-9505322-Vol.3
Reference Number:
SCA: 540110; PA: FI-96:003567; EDB-96:137023; SN: 96001645556
Resource Relation:
Conference: 10. world clean air congress, Espoo (Finland), 28 May - 2 Jun 1995; Other Information: DN: Sponsored by the International Union of Air Pollution Prevention and Environmental Protection Associations (UIAPPA) and hosted by the Finnish Air Pollution Prevention Society (FAPPS); PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of Proceedings of the 10th world clean air congress. Atmospheric pollution; Anttila, P.; Kaemaeri, J.; Tolvanen, M. [eds.]; PB: 632 p.
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS; ALBEDO; SEA LEVEL; OCEANIC CIRCULATION
OSTI ID:
283473
Research Organizations:
Finnish Air Pollution Prevention Society, Helsinki (Finland)
Country of Origin:
Finland
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: ON: DE96777170; ISBN 952-90-6474-8; TRN: FI9603567
Availability:
OSTI as DE96777170
Submitting Site:
FI
Size:
pp. [4]
Announcement Date:

Citation Formats

Ham, J van, Beer, R.J. van, Builtjes, P J.H., Roemer, M G.M., Koennen, G P, and Oerlemans, J. Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change. Finland: N. p., 1995. Web.
Ham, J van, Beer, R.J. van, Builtjes, P J.H., Roemer, M G.M., Koennen, G P, & Oerlemans, J. Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change. Finland.
Ham, J van, Beer, R.J. van, Builtjes, P J.H., Roemer, M G.M., Koennen, G P, and Oerlemans, J. 1995. "Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change." Finland.
@misc{etde_283473,
title = {Modified ocean circulation, albedo instability and ice-flow instability. Risks of non-linear climate change}
author = {Ham, J van, Beer, R.J. van, Builtjes, P J.H., Roemer, M G.M., Koennen, G P, and Oerlemans, J}
abstractNote = {In this presentation part of an investigation is described into risks for climate change which are presently not adequately covered in General Circulation Models. In the concept of climate change as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect it is generally assumed that the radiative forcings from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will result in a proportional or quasilinear global warming. Though correlations of this kind are known from palaeoclimate research, the variability of the climate seems to prevent the direct proof of a causal relation between recent greenhouse gas concentrations and temperature observations. In order to resolve the issue the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs), though still inadequate at present, is indispensable. Around the world some 10 leading GCMs exist which have been the subject of evaluation and intercomparison in a number of studies. Their results are regularly assessed in the IPCC process. A discussion on their performance in simulating present or past climates and the causes of their weak points shows that the depiction of clouds is a major weakness of GCMs. A second element which is virtually absent in GCMs are the feedbacks from natural biogeochemical cycles. These cycles are influenced by man in a number of ways. GCMs have a limited performance in simulating regional effects on climate. Moreover, albedo instability, in part due to its interaction with cloudiness, is only roughly represented. Apparently, not all relevant processes have been included in the GCMs. That situation constitutes a risk, since it cannot be ruled out that a missing process could cause or trigger a non-linear climate change. In the study non-linear climate change is connected with those processes which could provide feedbacks with a risk for non-monotonous or discontinuous behaviour of the climate system, or which are unpredictable or could cause rapid transitions}
place = {Finland}
year = {1995}
month = {Dec}
}