Abstract
The artificial heart is still only a research project surrounded by numerous uncertainties which make it very difficult to estimate, at the moment, the possibilities for future development of this technique in France. A systematic analysis of the hazards which characterize this project has been undertaken in the following report: restricting these uncertainties has required a taking into account of opinions of specialists concerned with type of research or its upshot. We have achieved this by adapting an investigation technique which is still unusual in France, the DELPHI method. This adaptation has allowed the confrontation and statistical aggregation of the opinions given by a body of a hundred experts who were consulted through a program of sequential interrogations which studied in particular, the probable date of the research issue, the clinical cases which require the use of an artificial heart, as well as the probable future needs. After having taken into account the economic constraints, we can deduce from these results the probable amount of plutonium 238 needed in the hypothesis where isotopic generator would be retained for the energetics feeding of the artificial heart [French] Le coeur artificiel n'est encore actuellement qu'un projet de recherche auquel sont attachees de
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Derian, Jean-Claude;
[1]
Morize, Francoise;
[2]
Vernejoul, Pierre de;
[3]
Service Hospitalier Frederic Joliot (France)];
Vial, Renee
[4]
- Commissariat a l'energie atomique et aux energies alternatives - CEA, Centre d'Etudes Nucleaires de Fontenay-aux-Roses, Departement des Programmes, Section des Etudes Economiques Generales (France)
- Commissariat a l'energie atomique et aux energies alternatives - CEA, Centre d'Etudes Nucleaires de Saclay, Institut National des Sciences et Techniques Nucleaires (France)
- Faculte de Medecine Necker - Enfants Malades (France)
- Direction de Protection et Surete Radiologiques (France)
Citation Formats
Derian, Jean-Claude, Morize, Francoise, Vernejoul, Pierre de, Service Hospitalier Frederic Joliot (France)], and Vial, Renee.
An example of the use of the DELPHI method: future prospects of artificial heart techniques in France; Un exemple d'utilisation de la methode DELPHI: perspectives de developpement en France des techniques de coeur artificiel.
France: N. p.,
1971.
Web.
Derian, Jean-Claude, Morize, Francoise, Vernejoul, Pierre de, Service Hospitalier Frederic Joliot (France)], & Vial, Renee.
An example of the use of the DELPHI method: future prospects of artificial heart techniques in France; Un exemple d'utilisation de la methode DELPHI: perspectives de developpement en France des techniques de coeur artificiel.
France.
Derian, Jean-Claude, Morize, Francoise, Vernejoul, Pierre de, Service Hospitalier Frederic Joliot (France)], and Vial, Renee.
1971.
"An example of the use of the DELPHI method: future prospects of artificial heart techniques in France; Un exemple d'utilisation de la methode DELPHI: perspectives de developpement en France des techniques de coeur artificiel."
France.
@misc{etde_22669682,
title = {An example of the use of the DELPHI method: future prospects of artificial heart techniques in France; Un exemple d'utilisation de la methode DELPHI: perspectives de developpement en France des techniques de coeur artificiel}
author = {Derian, Jean-Claude, Morize, Francoise, Vernejoul, Pierre de, Service Hospitalier Frederic Joliot (France)], and Vial, Renee}
abstractNote = {The artificial heart is still only a research project surrounded by numerous uncertainties which make it very difficult to estimate, at the moment, the possibilities for future development of this technique in France. A systematic analysis of the hazards which characterize this project has been undertaken in the following report: restricting these uncertainties has required a taking into account of opinions of specialists concerned with type of research or its upshot. We have achieved this by adapting an investigation technique which is still unusual in France, the DELPHI method. This adaptation has allowed the confrontation and statistical aggregation of the opinions given by a body of a hundred experts who were consulted through a program of sequential interrogations which studied in particular, the probable date of the research issue, the clinical cases which require the use of an artificial heart, as well as the probable future needs. After having taken into account the economic constraints, we can deduce from these results the probable amount of plutonium 238 needed in the hypothesis where isotopic generator would be retained for the energetics feeding of the artificial heart [French] Le coeur artificiel n'est encore actuellement qu'un projet de recherche auquel sont attachees de nombreuses incertitudes qui rendent difficile l'appreciation des possibilites de developpement futures de cette technique en France. Une analyse systematique des aleas qui caracterisent ce projet est entreprise dans l'etude ci-apres: circonscrire ces aleas necessite la prise en compte d'opinions emanant des specialistes concernes par cette recherche ou par son issue: c'est ce qui a ete realise en adaptant une methodologie non classique en France, la methode DELPHI. Cette adaptation a permis la confrontation et l'agregation statistique des opinions fournies par un college d'une centaine d'experts consultes par un programme d'interrogations sequentielles, envisageant en particulier les echeances probables de la recherche, les cas cliniques justiciables du coeur artificiel ainsi que l'importance probable des besoins. De ces resultats peuvent etre deduits, apres prise en compte des contraintes economiques, les besoins probables futurs en plutonium 238 dans l'hypothese ou la solution du generateur isotopique serait retenue pour l'alimentation energetique du coeur artificiel.}
place = {France}
year = {1971}
month = {Jul}
}
title = {An example of the use of the DELPHI method: future prospects of artificial heart techniques in France; Un exemple d'utilisation de la methode DELPHI: perspectives de developpement en France des techniques de coeur artificiel}
author = {Derian, Jean-Claude, Morize, Francoise, Vernejoul, Pierre de, Service Hospitalier Frederic Joliot (France)], and Vial, Renee}
abstractNote = {The artificial heart is still only a research project surrounded by numerous uncertainties which make it very difficult to estimate, at the moment, the possibilities for future development of this technique in France. A systematic analysis of the hazards which characterize this project has been undertaken in the following report: restricting these uncertainties has required a taking into account of opinions of specialists concerned with type of research or its upshot. We have achieved this by adapting an investigation technique which is still unusual in France, the DELPHI method. This adaptation has allowed the confrontation and statistical aggregation of the opinions given by a body of a hundred experts who were consulted through a program of sequential interrogations which studied in particular, the probable date of the research issue, the clinical cases which require the use of an artificial heart, as well as the probable future needs. After having taken into account the economic constraints, we can deduce from these results the probable amount of plutonium 238 needed in the hypothesis where isotopic generator would be retained for the energetics feeding of the artificial heart [French] Le coeur artificiel n'est encore actuellement qu'un projet de recherche auquel sont attachees de nombreuses incertitudes qui rendent difficile l'appreciation des possibilites de developpement futures de cette technique en France. Une analyse systematique des aleas qui caracterisent ce projet est entreprise dans l'etude ci-apres: circonscrire ces aleas necessite la prise en compte d'opinions emanant des specialistes concernes par cette recherche ou par son issue: c'est ce qui a ete realise en adaptant une methodologie non classique en France, la methode DELPHI. Cette adaptation a permis la confrontation et l'agregation statistique des opinions fournies par un college d'une centaine d'experts consultes par un programme d'interrogations sequentielles, envisageant en particulier les echeances probables de la recherche, les cas cliniques justiciables du coeur artificiel ainsi que l'importance probable des besoins. De ces resultats peuvent etre deduits, apres prise en compte des contraintes economiques, les besoins probables futurs en plutonium 238 dans l'hypothese ou la solution du generateur isotopique serait retenue pour l'alimentation energetique du coeur artificiel.}
place = {France}
year = {1971}
month = {Jul}
}