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Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models

Abstract

In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne  More>>
Authors:
Refsgaard, Jens Christian, E-mail: jcr@geus.dk; [1]  Auken, Esben; [2]  Bamberg, Charlotte A.; [3]  Christensen, Britt S.B.; [1]  Clausen, Thomas; [4]  Dalgaard, Esben; [2]  Effersø, Flemming; [5]  Ernstsen, Vibeke; [1]  Gertz, Flemming; [6]  Hansen, Anne Lausten; [7]  He, Xin; [1]  Jacobsen, Brian H.; [8]  Jensen, Karsten Høgh; [7]  Jørgensen, Flemming; Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt; [1]  Koch, Julian; [7]  Nilsson, Bertel; [1]  Petersen, Christian; [9]  De Schepper, Guillaume; [10]  Schamper, Cyril; [2]  others, and
  1. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) (Denmark)
  2. Department of Earth Sciences, Aarhus University (Denmark)
  3. City of Aarhus (Denmark)
  4. DHI, Hørsholm (Denmark)
  5. SkyTEM Aps, Beder (Denmark)
  6. Knowledge Center for Agriculture, Skejby (Denmark)
  7. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen (Denmark)
  8. Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen (Denmark)
  9. City of Odder (Denmark)
  10. Université Laval, Québec (Canada)
Publication Date:
Jan 01, 2014
Product Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Science of the Total Environment; Journal Volume: 468-469; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2013 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; DENITRIFICATION; GEOPHYSICS; LEACHING; NITRATES; REDUCTION; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; STREAMS; WATER; ZONES
OSTI ID:
22325011
Country of Origin:
Netherlands
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: ISSN 0048-9697; CODEN: STENDL; Other: PII: S0048-9697(13)00810-3; TRN: NL14S6568031226
Availability:
Available from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.042
Submitting Site:
NLN
Size:
page(s) 1278-1288
Announcement Date:
Apr 09, 2015

Citation Formats

Refsgaard, Jens Christian, E-mail: jcr@geus.dk, Auken, Esben, Bamberg, Charlotte A., Christensen, Britt S.B., Clausen, Thomas, Dalgaard, Esben, Effersø, Flemming, Ernstsen, Vibeke, Gertz, Flemming, Hansen, Anne Lausten, He, Xin, Jacobsen, Brian H., Jensen, Karsten Høgh, Jørgensen, Flemming, Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt, Koch, Julian, Nilsson, Bertel, Petersen, Christian, De Schepper, Guillaume, Schamper, Cyril, and others, and. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models. Netherlands: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2013.07.042.
Refsgaard, Jens Christian, E-mail: jcr@geus.dk, Auken, Esben, Bamberg, Charlotte A., Christensen, Britt S.B., Clausen, Thomas, Dalgaard, Esben, Effersø, Flemming, Ernstsen, Vibeke, Gertz, Flemming, Hansen, Anne Lausten, He, Xin, Jacobsen, Brian H., Jensen, Karsten Høgh, Jørgensen, Flemming, Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt, Koch, Julian, Nilsson, Bertel, Petersen, Christian, De Schepper, Guillaume, Schamper, Cyril, & others, and. Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models. Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2013.07.042
Refsgaard, Jens Christian, E-mail: jcr@geus.dk, Auken, Esben, Bamberg, Charlotte A., Christensen, Britt S.B., Clausen, Thomas, Dalgaard, Esben, Effersø, Flemming, Ernstsen, Vibeke, Gertz, Flemming, Hansen, Anne Lausten, He, Xin, Jacobsen, Brian H., Jensen, Karsten Høgh, Jørgensen, Flemming, Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt, Koch, Julian, Nilsson, Bertel, Petersen, Christian, De Schepper, Guillaume, Schamper, Cyril, and others, and. 2014. "Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models." Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2013.07.042.
@misc{etde_22325011,
title = {Nitrate reduction in geologically heterogeneous catchments — A framework for assessing the scale of predictive capability of hydrological models}
author = {Refsgaard, Jens Christian, E-mail: jcr@geus.dk, Auken, Esben, Bamberg, Charlotte A., Christensen, Britt S.B., Clausen, Thomas, Dalgaard, Esben, Effersø, Flemming, Ernstsen, Vibeke, Gertz, Flemming, Hansen, Anne Lausten, He, Xin, Jacobsen, Brian H., Jensen, Karsten Høgh, Jørgensen, Flemming, Jørgensen, Lisbeth Flindt, Koch, Julian, Nilsson, Bertel, Petersen, Christian, De Schepper, Guillaume, Schamper, Cyril, and others, and}
abstractNote = {In order to fulfil the requirements of the EU Water Framework Directive nitrate load from agricultural areas to surface water in Denmark needs to be reduced by about 40%. The regulations imposed until now have been uniform, i.e. the same restrictions for all areas independent of the subsurface conditions. Studies have shown that on a national basis about 2/3 of the nitrate leaching from the root zone is reduced naturally, through denitrification, in the subsurface before reaching the streams. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to identify robust areas, where nitrate leaching through the root zone is reduced in the saturated zone before reaching the streams, and vulnerable areas, where no subsurface reduction takes place, and then only impose regulations/restrictions on the vulnerable areas. Distributed hydrological models can make predictions at grid scale, i.e. at much smaller scale than the entire catchment. However, as distributed models often do not include local scale hydrogeological heterogeneities, they are typically not able to make accurate predictions at scales smaller than they are calibrated. We present a framework for assessing nitrate reduction in the subsurface and for assessing at which spatial scales modelling tools have predictive capabilities. A new instrument has been developed for airborne geophysical measurements, Mini-SkyTEM, dedicated to identifying geological structures and heterogeneities with horizontal and lateral resolutions of 30–50 m and 2 m, respectively, in the upper 30 m. The geological heterogeneity and uncertainty are further analysed by use of the geostatistical software TProGS by generating stochastic geological realisations that are soft conditioned against the geophysical data. Finally, the flow paths within the catchment are simulated by use of the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling system for each of the geological models generated by TProGS and the prediction uncertainty is characterised by the variance between the predictions of the different models. - Highlights: • We develop a new airborne geophysical measurements — Mini-SkyTEM. • We identify geological structures with 2 m vertical and 30–50 m horizontal resolution. • We describe geological uncertainty by TProGS conditioned by geophysical data. • We assess subsurface nitrate reduction using distributed hydrological models. • We assess the minimum scale of predictive capability of the hydrological model.}
doi = {10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2013.07.042}
journal = []
volume = {468-469}
journal type = {AC}
place = {Netherlands}
year = {2014}
month = {Jan}
}