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Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec

Abstract

This paper presented details of new approaches to inflow forecast modelling developed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) as part its real-time decision-making management of Quebec public dams. The CEHQ now plans to include the impacts of quantitative precipitation and initial snow condition uncertainties within its program. In order to assess precipitation forecast uncertainties, distributions of errors using historical precipitation data and forecasted precipitation data were used. Conditional probabilities were then evaluated within the context of a special weather alert. A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate inflows that corresponded to various precipitation scenarios in order to determine a precipitation threshold which could be managed within dam outflow policies. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of potential errors for basin snow water equivalent (SWE) were then studied separately. Outputs from a snow model were combined with tools from a geostatic model and used for error analysis. It was concluded that future research will focus on developing a strategy to incorporate SWE within the inflow forecasting model. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.
Authors:
Turcotte, R; Lafleur, J; Poirier, C; Lacombe, P; Brousseau, J; [1]  Sparks, D; Tapsoba, D [2] 
  1. Quebec Ministere du Developpement durable, de l'Environnement et des Parcs, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Centre d'Expertise Hydrique
  2. Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)
Publication Date:
Jul 01, 2006
Product Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: The Canadian Dam Association's 2004 annual conference : dams : past, present and future, Quebec City, PQ (Canada), 30 Sep - 5 Oct 2006; Other Information: PDF Turcotte 076. Abstract in English and French; The proceedings are available on a CD-ROM occupying 211 MB for viewing with Acrobat Reader. It is accompanied by an 84 page program booklet containing abstracts in English and French; Related Information: In: Proceedings of the Canadian Dam Association's 2006 annual conference : dams : past, present and future, [1000] pages.
Subject:
13 HYDRO ENERGY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; DAMS; ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; DECISION MAKING; REAL TIME SYSTEMS; ERRORS; PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE; SNOW; QUEBEC
Sponsoring Organizations:
Quebec Ministere du Developpment durable, de l'Environnment et des Parc, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Centre d'Expertise Hydrique; Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Alcan International Ltd., Montreal, PQ (Canada); Genivar, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Manitoba Hydro, Winnipeg, MB (Canada); Quebec Ministere des Ressources naturelles, de la Faune et des Parcs, Quebec, PQ (Canada); SNC-Lavalin, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Ontario Power Generation Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada) (and others)
OSTI ID:
20881728
Research Organizations:
Canadian Dam Association, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
Country of Origin:
Canada
Language:
French
Other Identifying Numbers:
TRN: CA0701241
Availability:
Available from the Canadian Dam Association, P.O. Box 4490, South Edmonton Postal Station, Edmonton, Alberta, T6E 4X7
Submitting Site:
CANM
Size:
page(s) 1-11
Announcement Date:
Jun 14, 2007

Citation Formats

Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, and Tapsoba, D. Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec. Canada: N. p., 2006. Web.
Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, & Tapsoba, D. Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec. Canada.
Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, and Tapsoba, D. 2006. "Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec." Canada.
@misc{etde_20881728,
title = {Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec}
author = {Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, and Tapsoba, D}
abstractNote = {This paper presented details of new approaches to inflow forecast modelling developed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) as part its real-time decision-making management of Quebec public dams. The CEHQ now plans to include the impacts of quantitative precipitation and initial snow condition uncertainties within its program. In order to assess precipitation forecast uncertainties, distributions of errors using historical precipitation data and forecasted precipitation data were used. Conditional probabilities were then evaluated within the context of a special weather alert. A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate inflows that corresponded to various precipitation scenarios in order to determine a precipitation threshold which could be managed within dam outflow policies. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of potential errors for basin snow water equivalent (SWE) were then studied separately. Outputs from a snow model were combined with tools from a geostatic model and used for error analysis. It was concluded that future research will focus on developing a strategy to incorporate SWE within the inflow forecasting model. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.}
place = {Canada}
year = {2006}
month = {Jul}
}