Abstract
This paper presented details of new approaches to inflow forecast modelling developed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) as part its real-time decision-making management of Quebec public dams. The CEHQ now plans to include the impacts of quantitative precipitation and initial snow condition uncertainties within its program. In order to assess precipitation forecast uncertainties, distributions of errors using historical precipitation data and forecasted precipitation data were used. Conditional probabilities were then evaluated within the context of a special weather alert. A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate inflows that corresponded to various precipitation scenarios in order to determine a precipitation threshold which could be managed within dam outflow policies. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of potential errors for basin snow water equivalent (SWE) were then studied separately. Outputs from a snow model were combined with tools from a geostatic model and used for error analysis. It was concluded that future research will focus on developing a strategy to incorporate SWE within the inflow forecasting model. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.
Turcotte, R;
Lafleur, J;
Poirier, C;
Lacombe, P;
Brousseau, J;
[1]
Sparks, D;
Tapsoba, D
[2]
- Quebec Ministere du Developpement durable, de l'Environnement et des Parcs, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Centre d'Expertise Hydrique
- Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)
Citation Formats
Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, and Tapsoba, D.
Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec.
Canada: N. p.,
2006.
Web.
Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, & Tapsoba, D.
Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec.
Canada.
Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, and Tapsoba, D.
2006.
"Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec."
Canada.
@misc{etde_20881728,
title = {Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec}
author = {Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, and Tapsoba, D}
abstractNote = {This paper presented details of new approaches to inflow forecast modelling developed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) as part its real-time decision-making management of Quebec public dams. The CEHQ now plans to include the impacts of quantitative precipitation and initial snow condition uncertainties within its program. In order to assess precipitation forecast uncertainties, distributions of errors using historical precipitation data and forecasted precipitation data were used. Conditional probabilities were then evaluated within the context of a special weather alert. A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate inflows that corresponded to various precipitation scenarios in order to determine a precipitation threshold which could be managed within dam outflow policies. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of potential errors for basin snow water equivalent (SWE) were then studied separately. Outputs from a snow model were combined with tools from a geostatic model and used for error analysis. It was concluded that future research will focus on developing a strategy to incorporate SWE within the inflow forecasting model. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.}
place = {Canada}
year = {2006}
month = {Jul}
}
title = {Accounting for uncertainties in real time hydrologic forecasting systems for the management of public dams in Quebec; Prise en compte des incertitudes dans la prevision hydrologique pour la gestion en temps reel des barrages publics du Quebec}
author = {Turcotte, R, Lafleur, J, Poirier, C, Lacombe, P, Brousseau, J, Sparks, D, and Tapsoba, D}
abstractNote = {This paper presented details of new approaches to inflow forecast modelling developed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) as part its real-time decision-making management of Quebec public dams. The CEHQ now plans to include the impacts of quantitative precipitation and initial snow condition uncertainties within its program. In order to assess precipitation forecast uncertainties, distributions of errors using historical precipitation data and forecasted precipitation data were used. Conditional probabilities were then evaluated within the context of a special weather alert. A distributed hydrological model was used to simulate inflows that corresponded to various precipitation scenarios in order to determine a precipitation threshold which could be managed within dam outflow policies. The temporal evolution and spatial distribution of potential errors for basin snow water equivalent (SWE) were then studied separately. Outputs from a snow model were combined with tools from a geostatic model and used for error analysis. It was concluded that future research will focus on developing a strategy to incorporate SWE within the inflow forecasting model. 10 refs., 4 tabs., 5 figs.}
place = {Canada}
year = {2006}
month = {Jul}
}