Abstract
The plan of this paper is to review the role of the US in the evolution of international energy security in the past; to examine the present situation and outlook for international energy trade and investment on which the US, and most major consuming countries depend, and, finally, to speculate about the possible effect on energy security of the war against terrorism. It seems that, the slogans of past energy security are not a good guide to the present problems. All industrial countries depend to some extent on imported energy supplies, but have the capacity to pay for imports over a wide range of price scenarios. Price stability is not to be expected: there will be short term shocks to both buyers and sellers, medium term cycles with leads and lags in adjusting supply capacity to demand, and long term uncertainty about the effects of policies aimed at sustainability and protecting the climate. The diversity and flexibility of international trade and investment offers the best long and medium term security and is most likely to achieve adjustments at lowest cost. Competition between oil and other fuels, and between major oil exporters to secure markets for their oil reserves, will limit
More>>
Mitchell, J V
[1]
- Royal Institute of Interantional Relations, Londres (United Kingdom)
Citation Formats
Mitchell, J V.
U.S. oil dependence in a global context.
France: N. p.,
2002.
Web.
Mitchell, J V.
U.S. oil dependence in a global context.
France.
Mitchell, J V.
2002.
"U.S. oil dependence in a global context."
France.
@misc{etde_20759593,
title = {U.S. oil dependence in a global context}
author = {Mitchell, J V}
abstractNote = {The plan of this paper is to review the role of the US in the evolution of international energy security in the past; to examine the present situation and outlook for international energy trade and investment on which the US, and most major consuming countries depend, and, finally, to speculate about the possible effect on energy security of the war against terrorism. It seems that, the slogans of past energy security are not a good guide to the present problems. All industrial countries depend to some extent on imported energy supplies, but have the capacity to pay for imports over a wide range of price scenarios. Price stability is not to be expected: there will be short term shocks to both buyers and sellers, medium term cycles with leads and lags in adjusting supply capacity to demand, and long term uncertainty about the effects of policies aimed at sustainability and protecting the climate. The diversity and flexibility of international trade and investment offers the best long and medium term security and is most likely to achieve adjustments at lowest cost. Competition between oil and other fuels, and between major oil exporters to secure markets for their oil reserves, will limit the possibilities for cartel behaviour. Short-term disruptions do, however, create problems. These have been managed during the last twenty years by a combination of actual or potential use of strategic stocks by importers and reserve capacity by OPEC exporters, particularly Saudi Arabia. The role of Saudi Arabia cannot be separated from its political relationships within the Middle East and with the US. The immense flexibility of policy which the US now enjoys as a superpower could be eroded by a weakening of the acceptance the US receives from governments in the Middle East. In the last resort, if the international system fails, the US and Europe could survive the termination of oil imports from the Middle East; Asia could not, and the consequences for the world economy including the US and Europe would be very bad. Attempts by the US and Europe to put barriers against trade in Middle East oil ''in case'' would make the situation worse, not better for consumers in the US and Europe who now benefit for access to competing, flexible oil supplies from that region. (author)}
place = {France}
year = {2002}
month = {May}
}
title = {U.S. oil dependence in a global context}
author = {Mitchell, J V}
abstractNote = {The plan of this paper is to review the role of the US in the evolution of international energy security in the past; to examine the present situation and outlook for international energy trade and investment on which the US, and most major consuming countries depend, and, finally, to speculate about the possible effect on energy security of the war against terrorism. It seems that, the slogans of past energy security are not a good guide to the present problems. All industrial countries depend to some extent on imported energy supplies, but have the capacity to pay for imports over a wide range of price scenarios. Price stability is not to be expected: there will be short term shocks to both buyers and sellers, medium term cycles with leads and lags in adjusting supply capacity to demand, and long term uncertainty about the effects of policies aimed at sustainability and protecting the climate. The diversity and flexibility of international trade and investment offers the best long and medium term security and is most likely to achieve adjustments at lowest cost. Competition between oil and other fuels, and between major oil exporters to secure markets for their oil reserves, will limit the possibilities for cartel behaviour. Short-term disruptions do, however, create problems. These have been managed during the last twenty years by a combination of actual or potential use of strategic stocks by importers and reserve capacity by OPEC exporters, particularly Saudi Arabia. The role of Saudi Arabia cannot be separated from its political relationships within the Middle East and with the US. The immense flexibility of policy which the US now enjoys as a superpower could be eroded by a weakening of the acceptance the US receives from governments in the Middle East. In the last resort, if the international system fails, the US and Europe could survive the termination of oil imports from the Middle East; Asia could not, and the consequences for the world economy including the US and Europe would be very bad. Attempts by the US and Europe to put barriers against trade in Middle East oil ''in case'' would make the situation worse, not better for consumers in the US and Europe who now benefit for access to competing, flexible oil supplies from that region. (author)}
place = {France}
year = {2002}
month = {May}
}