Abstract
Until few past years, the only form of future forecasting was the extrapolation, based in these forecasts the objectives were indicated and plans and adequate strategies settled down to reach them, nevertheless two basic errors exist in the process. Thus, the main efforts have gone towards the modification of the historical tendency, according to the inclusion of premises and hypothesis. The results of these necessities have been the evolution of the systems of strategic planning. In them, the control points have been multiplied and the reach of the forecasts has been limited. Another result has been, the development of the mathematical and econometric models, whose pretension are the ones of considering all the important interrelations between the variables of a certain economic process, a conceived model under this philosophy is constituted in a mechanism that at level system we could wait for given certain real or anticipated changes in some variables and considered hypotheses. [Spanish] Hasta hace muy pocos anos, la unica forma de prevision del futuro era la extrapolacion, basada en dichas previsiones se senalaban los objetivos y se establecian los planes y estrategias adecuadas para alcanzarlos, existen sin embargo dos errores basicos en el proceso. Asi, los principales
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Bazan Navarrete, Gerardo;
Nava Palama, Esperanza
[1]
- Programa Universitario de Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D. F. (Mexico)
Citation Formats
Bazan Navarrete, Gerardo, and Nava Palama, Esperanza.
Power Prospective for the period 2014-2030 of the energy sector of Mexico (Annexe 14 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Prospectiva energetica para el periodo 2014-2030 del sector energia de Mexico (Anexo 14 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico').
Mexico: N. p.,
2005.
Web.
Bazan Navarrete, Gerardo, & Nava Palama, Esperanza.
Power Prospective for the period 2014-2030 of the energy sector of Mexico (Annexe 14 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Prospectiva energetica para el periodo 2014-2030 del sector energia de Mexico (Anexo 14 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico').
Mexico.
Bazan Navarrete, Gerardo, and Nava Palama, Esperanza.
2005.
"Power Prospective for the period 2014-2030 of the energy sector of Mexico (Annexe 14 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Prospectiva energetica para el periodo 2014-2030 del sector energia de Mexico (Anexo 14 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico')."
Mexico.
@misc{etde_20741291,
title = {Power Prospective for the period 2014-2030 of the energy sector of Mexico (Annexe 14 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Prospectiva energetica para el periodo 2014-2030 del sector energia de Mexico (Anexo 14 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico')}
author = {Bazan Navarrete, Gerardo, and Nava Palama, Esperanza}
abstractNote = {Until few past years, the only form of future forecasting was the extrapolation, based in these forecasts the objectives were indicated and plans and adequate strategies settled down to reach them, nevertheless two basic errors exist in the process. Thus, the main efforts have gone towards the modification of the historical tendency, according to the inclusion of premises and hypothesis. The results of these necessities have been the evolution of the systems of strategic planning. In them, the control points have been multiplied and the reach of the forecasts has been limited. Another result has been, the development of the mathematical and econometric models, whose pretension are the ones of considering all the important interrelations between the variables of a certain economic process, a conceived model under this philosophy is constituted in a mechanism that at level system we could wait for given certain real or anticipated changes in some variables and considered hypotheses. [Spanish] Hasta hace muy pocos anos, la unica forma de prevision del futuro era la extrapolacion, basada en dichas previsiones se senalaban los objetivos y se establecian los planes y estrategias adecuadas para alcanzarlos, existen sin embargo dos errores basicos en el proceso. Asi, los principales esfuerzos se han dirigido hacia la modificacion de la tendencia historica, de acuerdo a la inclusion de premisas y de hipotesis. Los resultados de estas necesidades han sido la evolucion de los sistemas de planeacion estrategica. En ellos, se han multiplicado los puntos de control y se ha limitado el alcance de las previsiones. Otro resultado ha sido, el desarrollo de los modelos matematicos y econometricos, cuya pretension es la de considerar todas las interrelaciones importantes entre las variables de un cierto proceso economico, un modelo concebido bajo esta filosofia se constituye en un mecanismo que a nivel sistema podriamos esperar dado ciertos cambios reales o previstos en algunas variables e hipotesis consideradas.}
place = {Mexico}
year = {2005}
month = {Aug}
}
title = {Power Prospective for the period 2014-2030 of the energy sector of Mexico (Annexe 14 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Prospectiva energetica para el periodo 2014-2030 del sector energia de Mexico (Anexo 14 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico')}
author = {Bazan Navarrete, Gerardo, and Nava Palama, Esperanza}
abstractNote = {Until few past years, the only form of future forecasting was the extrapolation, based in these forecasts the objectives were indicated and plans and adequate strategies settled down to reach them, nevertheless two basic errors exist in the process. Thus, the main efforts have gone towards the modification of the historical tendency, according to the inclusion of premises and hypothesis. The results of these necessities have been the evolution of the systems of strategic planning. In them, the control points have been multiplied and the reach of the forecasts has been limited. Another result has been, the development of the mathematical and econometric models, whose pretension are the ones of considering all the important interrelations between the variables of a certain economic process, a conceived model under this philosophy is constituted in a mechanism that at level system we could wait for given certain real or anticipated changes in some variables and considered hypotheses. [Spanish] Hasta hace muy pocos anos, la unica forma de prevision del futuro era la extrapolacion, basada en dichas previsiones se senalaban los objetivos y se establecian los planes y estrategias adecuadas para alcanzarlos, existen sin embargo dos errores basicos en el proceso. Asi, los principales esfuerzos se han dirigido hacia la modificacion de la tendencia historica, de acuerdo a la inclusion de premisas y de hipotesis. Los resultados de estas necesidades han sido la evolucion de los sistemas de planeacion estrategica. En ellos, se han multiplicado los puntos de control y se ha limitado el alcance de las previsiones. Otro resultado ha sido, el desarrollo de los modelos matematicos y econometricos, cuya pretension es la de considerar todas las interrelaciones importantes entre las variables de un cierto proceso economico, un modelo concebido bajo esta filosofia se constituye en un mecanismo que a nivel sistema podriamos esperar dado ciertos cambios reales o previstos en algunas variables e hipotesis consideradas.}
place = {Mexico}
year = {2005}
month = {Aug}
}