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The 2030 Scenarios (Chapter 6 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Los escenarios a 2030 (Capitulo 6 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico')

Abstract

The quantification of the different scenarios that have been determined is an exercise that has as an aim illustrating on the interrelation between the parameters that affect the behavior of the energy system, more than having magnitudes on the size of the supply and energy demand for each type of primary energy. The credibility of the numbers is very small due to the many uncertainties in the long-term assumptions. The true value of the exercise is to understand the interrelationship of the different parameters that can affect the system and the impacts that can cause variants of the same. Also it is spoken of the obtained results with LEAP system that are related to the energy demand to year 2030 as well as the composition of the primary energy basket to be used and, the results obtained with the simplified method where, the determination of the demand in 2030 for both scenarios was made in simplified form through the determination of the values of the GIP and those of the energy intensity, being based on the rates of growth supposed for these two parameters in both periods to be considered. [Spanish] La cuantificacion de los diferentes escenarios que se han  More>>
Authors:
Mulas del Pozo, Pablo [1] 
  1. Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)
Publication Date:
Aug 15, 2005
Product Type:
Miscellaneous
Report Number:
ETDE-MX-0600023
Reference Number:
RN06070728; TVI: 0602
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; FORECASTING; ENERGY SYSTEMS; ENERGY DEMAND; MEXICO; NUMERICAL DATA
Sponsoring Organizations:
World Bank (United States)
OSTI ID:
20741274
Research Organizations:
Direccion General de Investigacion, Desarrollo Tecnologico, y Medio Ambiente de la Subsecretaria de Planeacion Energetica y Planeacion Energetica y Desarrollo Tecnologico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)
Country of Origin:
Mexico
Language:
Spanish
Other Identifying Numbers:
TRN: MX0600023
Availability:
Also available from: http://b-dig.iie.org.mx/BibDig/Vision2030/7_Cap6f17.08.05.pdf; Commercial reproduction prohibited; OSTI as DE20741274
Submitting Site:
MX
Size:
[55] pages
Announcement Date:
Jun 26, 2006

Citation Formats

Mulas del Pozo, Pablo. The 2030 Scenarios (Chapter 6 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Los escenarios a 2030 (Capitulo 6 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico'). Mexico: N. p., 2005. Web.
Mulas del Pozo, Pablo. The 2030 Scenarios (Chapter 6 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Los escenarios a 2030 (Capitulo 6 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico'). Mexico.
Mulas del Pozo, Pablo. 2005. "The 2030 Scenarios (Chapter 6 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Los escenarios a 2030 (Capitulo 6 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico')." Mexico.
@misc{etde_20741274,
title = {The 2030 Scenarios (Chapter 6 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Los escenarios a 2030 (Capitulo 6 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico')}
author = {Mulas del Pozo, Pablo}
abstractNote = {The quantification of the different scenarios that have been determined is an exercise that has as an aim illustrating on the interrelation between the parameters that affect the behavior of the energy system, more than having magnitudes on the size of the supply and energy demand for each type of primary energy. The credibility of the numbers is very small due to the many uncertainties in the long-term assumptions. The true value of the exercise is to understand the interrelationship of the different parameters that can affect the system and the impacts that can cause variants of the same. Also it is spoken of the obtained results with LEAP system that are related to the energy demand to year 2030 as well as the composition of the primary energy basket to be used and, the results obtained with the simplified method where, the determination of the demand in 2030 for both scenarios was made in simplified form through the determination of the values of the GIP and those of the energy intensity, being based on the rates of growth supposed for these two parameters in both periods to be considered. [Spanish] La cuantificacion de los diferentes escenarios que se han determinado es un ejercicio que tiene como fin el ilustrar sobre la interrelacion entre los parametros que afectan el comportamiento del sistema energetico, mas que el tener magnitudes sobre el tamano de la oferta y demanda energetica para cada tipo de energetico primario. La credibilidad de los numeros es muy pequena debido a las grandes incertidumbres en los supuestos a largo plazo. El verdadero valor del ejercicio es entender la interrelacion de los diferentes parametros que pueden afectar al sistema y los impactos que pueden causar variantes de los mismos. Tambien se habla de los resultados obtenidos con el sistema LEAP que se encuentran relacionados con la demanda energetica al 2030 asi como la composicion de la canasta de energeticos primarios a utilizarse y, los resultados obtenidos con el metodo simplificado en donde, la determinacion de la demanda en 2030 para los dos escenarios se realizo en forma simplificada a traves de determinar los valores del PIB y los de la intensidad energetica, basandose en las tasas de crecimiento supuestos para estos dos parametros en los dos periodos a considerar.}
place = {Mexico}
year = {2005}
month = {Aug}
}