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Use of the sensitivity analysis for multi-attributes decision models for oil exploration and production systems; Uso da analise de sensibilidade em modelos de decisao multiatributos para sistemas de exploracao e producao de petroleo

Abstract

Today, oil companies must be able to survive in a hostile and competitive environment. Such environment involves volatility of oil prices, the narrow margins of profitability, and ever increasing environmental restrictions. In order to survive, firms must have the appropriate tools to consider the tradeoffs involving the financial, environmental, technological and of market parameters which are the key elements within the investment decision-making process. The aim of the present work is to analyze the behavior of the weights (relative importance) of the attributes int the multi-criteria decision model through a high dimension sensitivity analysis. Among the benefits of such method are: provide the analyst (decision-maker) with a better characterization and control of the weights of the attributes, providing the user with a clear view of the entire decision process. The methodology suggested in this dissertation was applied in two oil exploration and production case studies. The first case involved the selection of an exploratory target among three options. In this case, there is interaction of the objectives of the company, where financial, technological and of market parameters interact. In the second case, a hypothetical production project is suggested. For this second study, the decision-maker has the option of using one  More>>
Authors:
Publication Date:
Jul 01, 2000
Product Type:
Thesis/Dissertation
Report Number:
ETDE-BR-0349
Reference Number:
RN05145296; TVI: 0527
Resource Relation:
Other Information: TH: Dissertacao (M.Sc.); 47 refs., 22 figs., 15 tabs.
Subject:
02 PETROLEUM; PETROLEUM; PETROLEUM INDUSTRY; PRICES; MARKET; ECONOMICS; PRODUCTION; MANAGEMENT; DECISION MAKING
OSTI ID:
20665293
Research Organizations:
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias. Programa de Pos-graduacao em Geociencias
Country of Origin:
Brazil
Language:
Portuguese
Other Identifying Numbers:
TRN: BR05G0921
Availability:
Commercial reproduction prohibited; OSTI as DE20665293
Submitting Site:
BR
Size:
105 pages
Announcement Date:

Citation Formats

Furtado, Ricardo. Use of the sensitivity analysis for multi-attributes decision models for oil exploration and production systems; Uso da analise de sensibilidade em modelos de decisao multiatributos para sistemas de exploracao e producao de petroleo. Brazil: N. p., 2000. Web.
Furtado, Ricardo. Use of the sensitivity analysis for multi-attributes decision models for oil exploration and production systems; Uso da analise de sensibilidade em modelos de decisao multiatributos para sistemas de exploracao e producao de petroleo. Brazil.
Furtado, Ricardo. 2000. "Use of the sensitivity analysis for multi-attributes decision models for oil exploration and production systems; Uso da analise de sensibilidade em modelos de decisao multiatributos para sistemas de exploracao e producao de petroleo." Brazil.
@misc{etde_20665293,
title = {Use of the sensitivity analysis for multi-attributes decision models for oil exploration and production systems; Uso da analise de sensibilidade em modelos de decisao multiatributos para sistemas de exploracao e producao de petroleo}
author = {Furtado, Ricardo}
abstractNote = {Today, oil companies must be able to survive in a hostile and competitive environment. Such environment involves volatility of oil prices, the narrow margins of profitability, and ever increasing environmental restrictions. In order to survive, firms must have the appropriate tools to consider the tradeoffs involving the financial, environmental, technological and of market parameters which are the key elements within the investment decision-making process. The aim of the present work is to analyze the behavior of the weights (relative importance) of the attributes int the multi-criteria decision model through a high dimension sensitivity analysis. Among the benefits of such method are: provide the analyst (decision-maker) with a better characterization and control of the weights of the attributes, providing the user with a clear view of the entire decision process. The methodology suggested in this dissertation was applied in two oil exploration and production case studies. The first case involved the selection of an exploratory target among three options. In this case, there is interaction of the objectives of the company, where financial, technological and of market parameters interact. In the second case, a hypothetical production project is suggested. For this second study, the decision-maker has the option of using one of the following production systems: a FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading); a TLP (Tension Leg Platform); or a SS (Semi Submersible). The attributes for each one of the production systems are financial, technological and environmental. In this second case, the model makes it possible to simulate several options, providing the manager with the choice of the most appropriate production system to this objectives and preferences. (author)}
place = {Brazil}
year = {2000}
month = {Jul}
}