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Integrated forecast system atmospheric - hydrologic - hydraulic for the Urubamba river basin

Abstract

Full text: During the months of December to March, Peru is affected by intense precipitations which generate every year land slides and floods mainly in low and middle river basins of the western and Eastern of the Andes, places that exhibit the greatest number of population and productive activities. These extreme events are favored by the steep slopes that characterize the Peruvian topography. For this reason at the end of year 2000, SENAMHI began the design of a monitoring, analysis and forecast system, that had the capacity to predict the occurrence of adverse events on the low and middle river basins of the main rivers such as Piura river in the north of Peru and the Rimac river in the capital of the country. The success of this system opened the possibilities of developing similar systems throughout the country and extend to different users or sectors such as: energy, water management, river transport, etc. An example of a solution prepared for a user (the gas extraction company Pluspetrol) was the implementation of a river level forecasting system in the Urubamba river to support river navigation in this amazonic river where water level variability turns risky the navigation during the dry  More>>
Authors:
Metzger, L; [1]  Carrillo, M; Diaz, A; Coronado, J; Fano, G [1] 
  1. Peruvian National Weather Service, Lima (Peru)
Publication Date:
Jul 01, 2004
Product Type:
Conference
Report Number:
IAEA-CN-118; IAEA-CN-118/98P
Resource Relation:
Conference: Aquatic Forum 2004: International conference on isotopes in environmental studies, Monte Carlo (Monaco), 25-29 Oct 2004; Other Information: PBD: 2004; Related Information: In: International conference on isotopes in environmental studies - Aquatic Forum 2004. Book of extended synopses, 617 pages.
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATE MODELS; FLOODS; HYDROLOGY; HYDROSPHERE; LONG WAVE RADIATION; PERU; PRECIPITATION; RIVERS; SEAS; TOPOGRAPHY; WATER
OSTI ID:
20597017
Research Organizations:
International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria); Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy); International Hydrological Programme (IHP) of UNESCO, Paris (France); Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, Paris (France); Commission Internationale pour l'Exploration Scientifique de la Mer Mediterranee (CIESM), Monte Carlo (Monaco)
Country of Origin:
IAEA
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
TRN: XA0401301043434
Availability:
Available from INIS in electronic form
Submitting Site:
INIS
Size:
page(s) 521-522
Announcement Date:

Citation Formats

Metzger, L, Carrillo, M, Diaz, A, Coronado, J, and Fano, G. Integrated forecast system atmospheric - hydrologic - hydraulic for the Urubamba river basin. IAEA: N. p., 2004. Web.
Metzger, L, Carrillo, M, Diaz, A, Coronado, J, & Fano, G. Integrated forecast system atmospheric - hydrologic - hydraulic for the Urubamba river basin. IAEA.
Metzger, L, Carrillo, M, Diaz, A, Coronado, J, and Fano, G. 2004. "Integrated forecast system atmospheric - hydrologic - hydraulic for the Urubamba river basin." IAEA.
@misc{etde_20597017,
title = {Integrated forecast system atmospheric - hydrologic - hydraulic for the Urubamba river basin}
author = {Metzger, L, Carrillo, M, Diaz, A, Coronado, J, and Fano, G}
abstractNote = {Full text: During the months of December to March, Peru is affected by intense precipitations which generate every year land slides and floods mainly in low and middle river basins of the western and Eastern of the Andes, places that exhibit the greatest number of population and productive activities. These extreme events are favored by the steep slopes that characterize the Peruvian topography. For this reason at the end of year 2000, SENAMHI began the design of a monitoring, analysis and forecast system, that had the capacity to predict the occurrence of adverse events on the low and middle river basins of the main rivers such as Piura river in the north of Peru and the Rimac river in the capital of the country. The success of this system opened the possibilities of developing similar systems throughout the country and extend to different users or sectors such as: energy, water management, river transport, etc. An example of a solution prepared for a user (the gas extraction company Pluspetrol) was the implementation of a river level forecasting system in the Urubamba river to support river navigation in this amazonic river where water level variability turns risky the navigation during the dry season. The Urubamba catchment higher altitudes are famous because of the presence of the Machupicchu ancient city, downslope this city is characterized by the Amazon rainforest with scarce observation stations for water level and rainfall. A very challenging modelling and operational hydrology enterprise was developed. The system implemented for the Urubamba river consist on running the atmospheric part of the global climate model CCM3, this model inputs Sea Surface Temperature forecasts from NCEP-NOAA. The global model was set on a T42 (300 km) grid resolution, this information was used as initial and boundary conditions for the regional model RAMS which provided a downscaled 20 Km grid resolution having as results daily precipitation forecasts. Besides the global climate model a statistical forecast was developed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF), this methodology uses the Long Wave Radiation as a predictor for the precipitation occurrence in the study area. This model is based on an atmospheric-ocean teleconnection El NINO 3 region in the central tropical pacific and the observed rainfall over the Andes. The information generated by the atmospheric model was used as input for the Sacramento hydrologic model originally developed by the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) which considers all the historical data (precipitation, flows and evapotranspiration), the model considers a perturbation in the form of a random variable which depends on the standard deviation and the mean, this algorithm allows to have not only one precipitation time series but the double or triple. This is the basis on the hydrologic ensemble forecasting where each precipitation time series generates a flow time series and then using post processing codes we find the probabilistic forecasts of non excedance for different percentage of probability. Finally the hydraulic model used was the HEC-RAS V.3.1 developed by the U.S Army Corps of Engineering which used all the cross sections available in the zone, manning values, contraction and expansion coefficients to convert the forecasted flow data into water level of the Urubamba river in four check points requested by the user: Malvinas, Nuevo Mundo, Sepahua and Maldonadillo. SENAMHI provided of useful information for 2 years and was the result of a multidisciplinary systemic work that joined meteorologists, hydrologists, climatologists and system engineers. The information used by the Regional numerical model RAMS was assimilated from geostationary satellite GOES 8 and automatic stations located in strategic points considering the topography, accessibility, security, extreme rainfall conditions and consequent variability in the levels of the Urubamba river. As a conclusion the work developed in the Urubamba river involves the ocean-atmosphere-hydrosphere interaction for gene rating precipitations and water levels in a virgin jungle basin in which has been established a hydrologic and hydraulic modelling system to give support and information to the river navigation in Amazonia. (author)}
place = {IAEA}
year = {2004}
month = {Jul}
}