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European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

Abstract

The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the  More>>
Authors:
Eldegard, Tom [1] 
  1. Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Administration, Bergen (Norway)
Publication Date:
Jul 01, 1996
Product Type:
Technical Report
Report Number:
INSROP-WP-41/1996
Reference Number:
EDB-00:085792
Resource Relation:
Other Information: 1 chart, 20 figs., 13 tabs., 31 refs. The project is part of the Insrop programme (INSROP); PBD: 1996
Subject:
03 NATURAL GAS; EUROPE; LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS; MARKET; SIMULATION; FORECASTING; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ECONOMIC POLICY; COST ESTIMATION; ENERGY POLICY; ARCTIC REGIONS
OSTI ID:
20026457
Research Organizations:
Fridtjof Nansens Inst., Lysaker (Norway)
Country of Origin:
Norway
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: ISBN 82-7613-143-5; TRN: NO0005024
Availability:
Available to ETDE participating countries only(see www.etde.org); commercial reproduction prohibited; OSTI as DE20026457
Submitting Site:
NW
Size:
88 pages
Announcement Date:
Oct 06, 2000

Citation Formats

Eldegard, Tom. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000. Norway: N. p., 1996. Web.
Eldegard, Tom. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000. Norway.
Eldegard, Tom. 1996. "European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000." Norway.
@misc{etde_20026457,
title = {European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000}
author = {Eldegard, Tom}
abstractNote = {The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain sufficient pipeline export capacity at the current cost level. This conclusion may be modified if LNG is selected as export solution for associated gas from isolated oil field developments or domestic Russian gas demand grows significantly faster than anticipated.}
place = {Norway}
year = {1996}
month = {Jul}
}