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Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview

Abstract

In modelling the consequences of a radioactive waste repository using Probabilistic Risk Analysis, it is necessary to use the judgement of experts both in assessing probabilities subjectively, and in choosing suitable analytic frameworks. This report presents the literature on these topics, first discussing the meaning of probability in PRA, and then giving an extensive review of what is known about how to elicit probabilities from experts. The report then provides an overview of the less well developed field of how best to use expertise in the construction of models for PRA. (author).
Authors:
Publication Date:
Dec 31, 1992
Product Type:
Technical Report
Report Number:
DOE-HMIP-RR-92.118
Reference Number:
SCA: 052002; PA: AIX-24:042920; SN: 93000991049
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: 1992
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; VERIFICATION; 052002; WASTE DISPOSAL AND STORAGE
OSTI ID:
10153759
Research Organizations:
Department of the Environment, London (United Kingdom). Her Majesty`s Inspectorate of Pollution
Country of Origin:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: ON: DE93626425; CNN: Contract PECD-7/9/637; TRN: GB9300538042920
Availability:
OSTI; NTIS (US Sales Only); INIS
Submitting Site:
GBN
Size:
[36] p.
Announcement Date:
Jul 06, 2005

Citation Formats

Watson, S R. Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview. United Kingdom: N. p., 1992. Web.
Watson, S R. Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview. United Kingdom.
Watson, S R. 1992. "Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview." United Kingdom.
@misc{etde_10153759,
title = {Procedures for the elicitation of expert judgements in the probabilistic risk analysis of radioactive waste repositories: an overview}
author = {Watson, S R}
abstractNote = {In modelling the consequences of a radioactive waste repository using Probabilistic Risk Analysis, it is necessary to use the judgement of experts both in assessing probabilities subjectively, and in choosing suitable analytic frameworks. This report presents the literature on these topics, first discussing the meaning of probability in PRA, and then giving an extensive review of what is known about how to elicit probabilities from experts. The report then provides an overview of the less well developed field of how best to use expertise in the construction of models for PRA. (author).}
place = {United Kingdom}
year = {1992}
month = {Dec}
}