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Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

Abstract

This report describes the development and evaluation of different methods for predicting the wind locally. The look-ahead time of the forecasts ranges from 3 to 36 hours. The main model developed here is based on forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model. In this study HIRLAM (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) has been used. These forecasts are transformed to the surface using the geostrophic drag law and the logarithmic wind profile in their neutral versions. To take local effects into account, corrections output form WA{sup s}P (Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program) are used. The conclusion is that the model developed here performs significantly better than persistence. The model performs best when applied to sites in Northern Europe (having high wind speeds). When using MOS (Model Output Statistics) it is possible to improve the forecasts, mainly those that do not perform well. (au) (21 tabs., 67 ills., 81 refs.)
Authors:
Publication Date:
Mar 01, 1994
Product Type:
Thesis/Dissertation
Report Number:
RISO-R-702(EN)
Reference Number:
SCA: 170100; PA: DK-94:001236; EDB-94:074313; NTS-94:016060; ERA-19:018414; SN: 94001195700
Resource Relation:
Other Information: TH: Thesis (ph.d.); PBD: Mar 1994
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; WIND; FORECASTING; COMPLEX TERRAIN; FLOW MODELS; H CODES; METEOROLOGY; NEURAL NETWORKS; NUMERICAL DATA; ROUGHNESS; TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS; W CODES; WEATHER; 170100; RESOURCES AND AVAILABILITY (CLIMATOLOGY)
OSTI ID:
10149105
Research Organizations:
Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark). Meteorology and Wind Energy; Copenhagen Univ. (Denmark)
Country of Origin:
Denmark
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: ON: DE94763264; CNN: Contract JOUR-0091-C(MB); ISBN 87-550-1916-1; TRN: DK9401236
Availability:
OSTI; NTIS; Also available from Risoe Library, P.O. Box 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
Submitting Site:
DK
Size:
144 p.
Announcement Date:
Jul 05, 2005

Citation Formats

Landberg, L. Short-term prediction of local wind conditions. Denmark: N. p., 1994. Web.
Landberg, L. Short-term prediction of local wind conditions. Denmark.
Landberg, L. 1994. "Short-term prediction of local wind conditions." Denmark.
@misc{etde_10149105,
title = {Short-term prediction of local wind conditions}
author = {Landberg, L}
abstractNote = {This report describes the development and evaluation of different methods for predicting the wind locally. The look-ahead time of the forecasts ranges from 3 to 36 hours. The main model developed here is based on forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model. In this study HIRLAM (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) has been used. These forecasts are transformed to the surface using the geostrophic drag law and the logarithmic wind profile in their neutral versions. To take local effects into account, corrections output form WA{sup s}P (Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program) are used. The conclusion is that the model developed here performs significantly better than persistence. The model performs best when applied to sites in Northern Europe (having high wind speeds). When using MOS (Model Output Statistics) it is possible to improve the forecasts, mainly those that do not perform well. (au) (21 tabs., 67 ills., 81 refs.)}
place = {Denmark}
year = {1994}
month = {Mar}
}