Abstract
A statistical strategy to deduce regional scale features from Climate General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to identify the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of global scale atmospheric flow. Using the Canonical Correlation technique the global-scale parameter `North Atlantic sea-level pressure` is related to the regional parameter `winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall`. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to 1980 from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous `2xCO{sub 2}` doubling-experiment the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field suggests insignificantly increased area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the Peninsula. In contrast, the directly simulated change of precipitation, at the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula, is -10 mm/month, with a minimum of -19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A (`business
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Citation Formats
Storch, H von, Zorita, E, and Cubasch, U.
Downscaling of climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime.
Germany: N. p.,
1991.
Web.
Storch, H von, Zorita, E, & Cubasch, U.
Downscaling of climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime.
Germany.
Storch, H von, Zorita, E, and Cubasch, U.
1991.
"Downscaling of climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime."
Germany.
@misc{etde_10131234,
title = {Downscaling of climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime}
author = {Storch, H von, Zorita, E, and Cubasch, U}
abstractNote = {A statistical strategy to deduce regional scale features from Climate General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to identify the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of global scale atmospheric flow. Using the Canonical Correlation technique the global-scale parameter `North Atlantic sea-level pressure` is related to the regional parameter `winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall`. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to 1980 from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous `2xCO{sub 2}` doubling-experiment the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field suggests insignificantly increased area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the Peninsula. In contrast, the directly simulated change of precipitation, at the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula, is -10 mm/month, with a minimum of -19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A (`business as usual`) increase of CO{sub 2}, the statistical model results differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: over the experimental range of 100 years, the area averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model) and by 9 mm/month (grid-point values). (orig.).}
issue = {no. 64}
place = {Germany}
year = {1991}
month = {Jun}
}
title = {Downscaling of climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime}
author = {Storch, H von, Zorita, E, and Cubasch, U}
abstractNote = {A statistical strategy to deduce regional scale features from Climate General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to identify the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of global scale atmospheric flow. Using the Canonical Correlation technique the global-scale parameter `North Atlantic sea-level pressure` is related to the regional parameter `winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall`. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to 1980 from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous `2xCO{sub 2}` doubling-experiment the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field suggests insignificantly increased area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the Peninsula. In contrast, the directly simulated change of precipitation, at the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula, is -10 mm/month, with a minimum of -19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A (`business as usual`) increase of CO{sub 2}, the statistical model results differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: over the experimental range of 100 years, the area averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model) and by 9 mm/month (grid-point values). (orig.).}
issue = {no. 64}
place = {Germany}
year = {1991}
month = {Jun}
}