You need JavaScript to view this

Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation

Abstract

Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the  More>>
Authors:
Boulton, G S; Payne, A [1] 
  1. Edinburgh Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Geology and Geophysics, Grant Inst.
Publication Date:
Dec 01, 1992
Product Type:
Technical Report
Report Number:
SKB-TR-93-14
Reference Number:
SCA: 052002; 540200; PA: AIX-25:019215; EDB-94:034602; ERA-19:011759; NTS-94:014995; SN: 94001160023
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: Dec 1992
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; ICE CAPS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; SWEDEN; CLIMATES; GEOLOGIC HISTORY; GLACIERS; METEOROLOGY; RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL; UNDERGROUND DISPOSAL; 052002; 540200; WASTE DISPOSAL AND STORAGE; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, TERRESTRIAL
OSTI ID:
10130626
Research Organizations:
Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)
Country of Origin:
Sweden
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: ISSN 0284-3757; Other: ON: DE94616529; TRN: SE9300340019215
Availability:
OSTI; NTIS; INIS
Submitting Site:
SWDN
Size:
150 p.
Announcement Date:
Jul 04, 2005

Citation Formats

Boulton, G S, and Payne, A. Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation. Sweden: N. p., 1992. Web.
Boulton, G S, & Payne, A. Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation. Sweden.
Boulton, G S, and Payne, A. 1992. "Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation." Sweden.
@misc{etde_10130626,
title = {Simulation of the European ice sheet through the last glacial cycle and prediction of future glaciation}
author = {Boulton, G S, and Payne, A}
abstractNote = {Global climates of the recent past appear to correlate with patterns of variation in the earths orbit round the sun. As such orbital changes can be predicted into the future, it is argued that the pattern of natural long-term future change can also be estimated. From this, future trends of glaciation can be inferred. The physical and mathematical basis of a time-dependent, thermo mechanically coupled, three dimensional ice sheet model is described. The model is driven by changes in the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) on its surface. This causes flexure of the underlying lithosphere. The model is tuned to the maximum extension of the last (Weichselian) ice sheet and driven by an ELA fluctuation which reflects the NE Atlantic sea surface temperature fluctuation pattern during the last glacial cycle in such a way that the model reproduces the ice sheet margin at the glacial maximum. The distribution of internal ice sheet velocity, temperature, basal melting rate and sub glacial permafrost penetration are all computed. The model is then tested against its predictions of the areal pattern of ice sheet expansion and decay, the pattern of crustal flexure and relative sea level change, and the distribution of till produced by the last European ice sheet. The tested model is then driven by predictions of future climate change to produce simulations of future ice sheet glaciation in northern Europe.}
place = {Sweden}
year = {1992}
month = {Dec}
}