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The emissions gap report. Are the Copenhagen accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 deg. C or 1.5 deg. C?. A preliminary assessment

Miscellaneous:

Abstract

This report addresses many of the key issues raised by the Copenhagen Accord. For example, the emission pathways consistent with temperature limits and the expected emissions in 2020 based on current pledges. Furthermore, it examines whether there is a gap between emission levels consistent with temperature limits and expected emissions, and furthermore, the increases in temperature consistent with such a gap in emissions. Outside the scope of the report are issues related to the comparability and equity of pledges. Chapter 2 focuses on the likelihood of various emission pathways staying within temperature limits. For these pathways we identify the period in which emissions peak, the level of emissions in 2020, and the corresponding emission reduction rates after 2020. Results include emission pathways from integrated assessment models (IAM) and carbon cycle and climate models. Also discussed are current views about the feasibility of emission reductions and negative emissions, as well as factors determining long-term temperature, including cumulative emissions. Chapter 3 reviews estimates of global emission levels in 2020 based on country emission pledges. Among the factors influencing these estimates are whether pledges are independent of, or conditional on, other countries' actions, financing or technological support. For industrialized countries, key factors include:  More>>
Publication Date:
Nov 15, 2010
Product Type:
Miscellaneous
Resource Relation:
Other Information: 77 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; MITIGATION; CLIMATIC CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GASES; EMISSION; AIR POLLUTION; INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS
OSTI ID:
1010706
Research Organizations:
United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi (Kenya)
Country of Origin:
Kenya
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: ISBN 978-92-807-3134-7; TRN: KE11CC049
Availability:
Available at http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport
Submitting Site:
DK
Size:
55 p. pages
Announcement Date:
Apr 11, 2011

Miscellaneous:

Citation Formats

None. The emissions gap report. Are the Copenhagen accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 deg. C or 1.5 deg. C?. A preliminary assessment. Kenya: N. p., 2010. Web.
None. The emissions gap report. Are the Copenhagen accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 deg. C or 1.5 deg. C?. A preliminary assessment. Kenya.
None. 2010. "The emissions gap report. Are the Copenhagen accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 deg. C or 1.5 deg. C?. A preliminary assessment." Kenya.
@misc{etde_1010706,
title = {The emissions gap report. Are the Copenhagen accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 deg. C or 1.5 deg. C?. A preliminary assessment}
author = {None}
abstractNote = {This report addresses many of the key issues raised by the Copenhagen Accord. For example, the emission pathways consistent with temperature limits and the expected emissions in 2020 based on current pledges. Furthermore, it examines whether there is a gap between emission levels consistent with temperature limits and expected emissions, and furthermore, the increases in temperature consistent with such a gap in emissions. Outside the scope of the report are issues related to the comparability and equity of pledges. Chapter 2 focuses on the likelihood of various emission pathways staying within temperature limits. For these pathways we identify the period in which emissions peak, the level of emissions in 2020, and the corresponding emission reduction rates after 2020. Results include emission pathways from integrated assessment models (IAM) and carbon cycle and climate models. Also discussed are current views about the feasibility of emission reductions and negative emissions, as well as factors determining long-term temperature, including cumulative emissions. Chapter 3 reviews estimates of global emission levels in 2020 based on country emission pledges. Among the factors influencing these estimates are whether pledges are independent of, or conditional on, other countries' actions, financing or technological support. For industrialized countries, key factors include: the accounting procedures for emissions or uptake of carbon from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF); the potential for international climate finance, as agreed in the Copenhagen Accord to enable further emission reductions; the carry-over of emission reduction units from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012); and the potential double counting of offsets with emission reductions from non-Annex I countries' actions. Emission estimates are also influenced by the uncertainty of base year emissions and by assumptions needed for filling in sectoral or other gaps in the emission estimates of various groups. Chapter 4 builds upon the previous two chapters by examining a possible 'emissions gap' in 2020 between emission levels consistent with temperature limits and expected emissions resulting from the pledges. It then goes on to explore policy options for narrowing the size of the gap. Chapter 5 goes a step further by reporting on possible long-term temperature changes following from current pledges. The online version of the report contains three appendices with additional information about emission pledge calculations in this report. Appendix 1 provides detail on the differences between the four pledge cases described in Chapter 3 and the uncertainties around them. Appendix 2 provides a country-by-country analysis of the pledges of the largest emitting countries. Appendix 3 compares the findings of modelling groups that have assessed country pledges. (LN)}
place = {Kenya}
year = {2010}
month = {Nov}
}