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Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations

Abstract

Temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe are examined in an ensemble of RCA3 regional climate model simulations driven by six different global climate models (ECHAM5, CCSM3, HadCM3, CNRM, BCM and IPSL) under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The extremes are expressed in terms of the 20-yr return values of annual temperature and wind extremes and seasonal precipitation extremes. The ensemble shows reduction of recurrence time of warm extremes from 20 yr in 1961-1990 (CTL) to 1-2 yr over southern Europe and to 5 yr over Scandinavia in 2071-2100 (SCN) while cold extremes, defined for CTL, almost disappear in the future. The recurrence time of intense precipitation reduces from 20 yr in CTL to 6-10 yr in SCN over northern and central Europe in summer and even more to 2-4 yr in Scandinavia in winter. The projected changes in wind extremes have a large spread among the six simulations with a disperse tendency (1-2 m s-1) of strengthening north of 45 deg N and weakening south of it which is sensitive to the number of simulations in the ensemble. Changes in temperature extremes are more robust compared to those in precipitation extremes while there is less confidence on changes in  More>>
Authors:
Nikulin, Grigory; Kjellstroem, Erik; Hansson, Ulf; Strandberg, Gustav; Ullerstig, Anders [1] 
  1. Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)
Publication Date:
Jan 15, 2011
Product Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Tellus, Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography; Journal Volume: 63A; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: 41 refs., 8 figs.; 10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00466.X
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATE MODELS; REGIONAL ANALYSIS; EUROPE; AMBIENT TEMPERATURE; WIND; PRECIPITATION
OSTI ID:
1008097
Country of Origin:
Sweden
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: ISSN 0280-6495; TRN: SE1107049
Availability:
Available from DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x
Submitting Site:
SWD
Size:
page(s) 41-55
Announcement Date:
Mar 14, 2011

Citation Formats

Nikulin, Grigory, Kjellstroem, Erik, Hansson, Ulf, Strandberg, Gustav, and Ullerstig, Anders. Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations. Sweden: N. p., 2011. Web. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00466.X.
Nikulin, Grigory, Kjellstroem, Erik, Hansson, Ulf, Strandberg, Gustav, & Ullerstig, Anders. Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations. Sweden. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00466.X.
Nikulin, Grigory, Kjellstroem, Erik, Hansson, Ulf, Strandberg, Gustav, and Ullerstig, Anders. 2011. "Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations." Sweden. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00466.X. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00466.X.
@misc{etde_1008097,
title = {Evaluation and future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations}
author = {Nikulin, Grigory, Kjellstroem, Erik, Hansson, Ulf, Strandberg, Gustav, and Ullerstig, Anders}
abstractNote = {Temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe are examined in an ensemble of RCA3 regional climate model simulations driven by six different global climate models (ECHAM5, CCSM3, HadCM3, CNRM, BCM and IPSL) under the SRES A1B emission scenario. The extremes are expressed in terms of the 20-yr return values of annual temperature and wind extremes and seasonal precipitation extremes. The ensemble shows reduction of recurrence time of warm extremes from 20 yr in 1961-1990 (CTL) to 1-2 yr over southern Europe and to 5 yr over Scandinavia in 2071-2100 (SCN) while cold extremes, defined for CTL, almost disappear in the future. The recurrence time of intense precipitation reduces from 20 yr in CTL to 6-10 yr in SCN over northern and central Europe in summer and even more to 2-4 yr in Scandinavia in winter. The projected changes in wind extremes have a large spread among the six simulations with a disperse tendency (1-2 m s-1) of strengthening north of 45 deg N and weakening south of it which is sensitive to the number of simulations in the ensemble. Changes in temperature extremes are more robust compared to those in precipitation extremes while there is less confidence on changes in wind extremes}
doi = {10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00466.X}
journal = {Tellus, Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography}
issue = {1}
volume = {63A}
place = {Sweden}
year = {2011}
month = {Jan}
}