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Using an ensemble of climate projections for simulating recent and near-future hydrological change to lake Vaenern in Sweden

Abstract

Lake Vaenern and River Goeta aelv in southern Sweden constitute a large and complex hydrological system that is highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, an ensemble of 12 regional climate projections is used to simulate the inflow to Lake Vaenern by the HBV hydrological model. By using distribution based scaling of the climate model output, all projections can accurately reproduce the annual cycle of mean monthly inflows for the period 1961-1990 as simulated using HBV with observed temperature and precipitation ('HBVobs'). Significant changes towards higher winter inflow and a reduced spring flood were found when comparing the period 1991-2008 to 1961-1990 in the HBVobs simulations and the ability of the regional projections to reproduce these changes varied. The main uncertainties in the projections for 1991-2008 were found to originate from the global climate model used, including its initialization, and in one case, the emissions scenario, whereas the regional climate model used and its resolution showed a smaller influence. The projections that most accurately reproduce the recent change suggest that the current trends in the winter and spring inflows will continue over the period 2009-2030
Authors:
Olsson, Jonas; Yang, Wei; Graham, L Phil; Rosberg, Joergen; Andreasson, Johan [1] 
  1. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)
Publication Date:
Jan 15, 2011
Product Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Tellus, Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography; Journal Volume: 63A; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: 25 refs., 9 figs., 4 tabs.; 10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00476.X
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATE MODELS; SWEDEN; HYDROLOGY; AMBIENT TEMPERATURE; WATER RESOURCES; ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS
OSTI ID:
1008093
Country of Origin:
Sweden
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: ISSN 0280-6495; TRN: SE1107045
Availability:
Available from DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00476.x
Submitting Site:
SWD
Size:
page(s) 126-137
Announcement Date:
Mar 14, 2011

Citation Formats

Olsson, Jonas, Yang, Wei, Graham, L Phil, Rosberg, Joergen, and Andreasson, Johan. Using an ensemble of climate projections for simulating recent and near-future hydrological change to lake Vaenern in Sweden. Sweden: N. p., 2011. Web. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00476.X.
Olsson, Jonas, Yang, Wei, Graham, L Phil, Rosberg, Joergen, & Andreasson, Johan. Using an ensemble of climate projections for simulating recent and near-future hydrological change to lake Vaenern in Sweden. Sweden. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00476.X.
Olsson, Jonas, Yang, Wei, Graham, L Phil, Rosberg, Joergen, and Andreasson, Johan. 2011. "Using an ensemble of climate projections for simulating recent and near-future hydrological change to lake Vaenern in Sweden." Sweden. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00476.X. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00476.X.
@misc{etde_1008093,
title = {Using an ensemble of climate projections for simulating recent and near-future hydrological change to lake Vaenern in Sweden}
author = {Olsson, Jonas, Yang, Wei, Graham, L Phil, Rosberg, Joergen, and Andreasson, Johan}
abstractNote = {Lake Vaenern and River Goeta aelv in southern Sweden constitute a large and complex hydrological system that is highly vulnerable to climate change. In this study, an ensemble of 12 regional climate projections is used to simulate the inflow to Lake Vaenern by the HBV hydrological model. By using distribution based scaling of the climate model output, all projections can accurately reproduce the annual cycle of mean monthly inflows for the period 1961-1990 as simulated using HBV with observed temperature and precipitation ('HBVobs'). Significant changes towards higher winter inflow and a reduced spring flood were found when comparing the period 1991-2008 to 1961-1990 in the HBVobs simulations and the ability of the regional projections to reproduce these changes varied. The main uncertainties in the projections for 1991-2008 were found to originate from the global climate model used, including its initialization, and in one case, the emissions scenario, whereas the regional climate model used and its resolution showed a smaller influence. The projections that most accurately reproduce the recent change suggest that the current trends in the winter and spring inflows will continue over the period 2009-2030}
doi = {10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00476.X}
journal = {Tellus, Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography}
issue = {1}
volume = {63A}
place = {Sweden}
year = {2011}
month = {Jan}
}