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Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin

Abstract

The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA3) and the hydrological model HBV were linked to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe basin until 2050. RCA3 was capable of simulating the most important aspects of the climate for a control period at the regional scale. At the subbasin scale, additional scaling was needed. Three climate change experiments using ECHAM4-A2, B2 and CCSM3-B2 as input to RCA3 were carried out. According to the simulations annual rainfall in 2050 would be reduced by approximately 10% with increasing interannual variability of rainfall and dry season river flow and later onset of the rainy season. The ECHAM4-A2 driven experiment did also indicate a slight increase of high flows. If the results indeed reflect the future, they will worsen the already critical situation for water resources, regarding both floods and droughts. Uncertainties, however in the downscaled scenarios make it difficult to prioritize adaptation options. This calls for inclusion of more climate change experiments, in an ensemble of climate scenarios possibly by using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling of general circulation models, as well as extending the simulations to 2100 to further ensure robustness of the signal
Authors:
Andersson, Lotta; Samuelsson, Patrick; Kjellstroem, Erik [1] 
  1. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Inst., Norrkoeping (Sweden)
Publication Date:
Jan 15, 2011
Product Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Tellus, Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography; Journal Volume: 63A; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: 45 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs.; 10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00480.X
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATE MODELS; HYDROLOGY; WATER RESOURCES; RAIN; CLIMATIC CHANGE
OSTI ID:
1008092
Country of Origin:
Sweden
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Journal ID: ISSN 0280-6495; TRN: SE1107044
Availability:
Available from DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00480.x
Submitting Site:
SWD
Size:
page(s) 138-157
Announcement Date:
Mar 14, 2011

Citation Formats

Andersson, Lotta, Samuelsson, Patrick, and Kjellstroem, Erik. Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin. Sweden: N. p., 2011. Web. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00480.X.
Andersson, Lotta, Samuelsson, Patrick, & Kjellstroem, Erik. Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin. Sweden. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00480.X.
Andersson, Lotta, Samuelsson, Patrick, and Kjellstroem, Erik. 2011. "Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin." Sweden. doi:10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00480.X. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00480.X.
@misc{etde_1008092,
title = {Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Pungwe river basin}
author = {Andersson, Lotta, Samuelsson, Patrick, and Kjellstroem, Erik}
abstractNote = {The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCA3) and the hydrological model HBV were linked to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the Pungwe basin until 2050. RCA3 was capable of simulating the most important aspects of the climate for a control period at the regional scale. At the subbasin scale, additional scaling was needed. Three climate change experiments using ECHAM4-A2, B2 and CCSM3-B2 as input to RCA3 were carried out. According to the simulations annual rainfall in 2050 would be reduced by approximately 10% with increasing interannual variability of rainfall and dry season river flow and later onset of the rainy season. The ECHAM4-A2 driven experiment did also indicate a slight increase of high flows. If the results indeed reflect the future, they will worsen the already critical situation for water resources, regarding both floods and droughts. Uncertainties, however in the downscaled scenarios make it difficult to prioritize adaptation options. This calls for inclusion of more climate change experiments, in an ensemble of climate scenarios possibly by using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling of general circulation models, as well as extending the simulations to 2100 to further ensure robustness of the signal}
doi = {10.1111/J.1600-0870.2010.00480.X}
journal = {Tellus, Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography}
issue = {1}
volume = {63A}
place = {Sweden}
year = {2011}
month = {Jan}
}