Abstract
The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn
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Citation Formats
Vestreng, Vigdis, Kallenborn, Roland, and Oekstad, Elin.
Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard.
Norway: N. p.,
2010.
Web.
Vestreng, Vigdis, Kallenborn, Roland, & Oekstad, Elin.
Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard.
Norway.
Vestreng, Vigdis, Kallenborn, Roland, and Oekstad, Elin.
2010.
"Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard."
Norway.
@misc{etde_1005111,
title = {Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard}
author = {Vestreng, Vigdis, Kallenborn, Roland, and Oekstad, Elin}
abstractNote = {The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant literature. Marine transportation contributes substantially (90%) to emissions of particulate matter (BC, OC) and NO{sub x} in 2007, and is the second largest source of CO{sub 2} (40%). Energy production is the largest source of CO{sub 2} (50%) and SO{sub 2} (90%), while nearly all methane is released in relation to coal mining. The high contribution of climate influencing emissions from cruise traffic is one of the main findings in this study. 20% of the total CO{sub 2} emissions in 2007 and 40% of NO{sub x} and particulate matter originates from cruise ships. Local emissions of BC contributes significantly (20%) to the total deposition at Svalbard. Black carbon is important for global warming both as a compound that heats the atmosphere, and as a contributor to accelerated melting when deposited on snow and ice. Preventing snow and ice melting at Svalbard and in the rest of the Arctic region is a key factor to ensure a sustainable future. A qualitative uncertainty analysis has been performed. The results indicate that the data quality is best for recent years. A key uncertainty is related to the lack of reliable measurements and consumption figures from the coal fired power plant in Barentsburg. Measurements of emissions related to marine transport and the diesel based power production in Svea would also be beneficial to raise the confidence in emission estimates further. According to our results, a steep increase in emissions of climate related compounds both in the short- and in the long-term can be expected for the coming years if steps are not taken in order to reduce the emissions. Emissions of climate influencing pollutants will continue to grow by about 30% towards 2012 even if the current plans to reduce the Norwegian coal production to half the 2007 level are realized. The emission increase is caused by the assumed growth in activities related mainly to tourism and research. In the long-term, it is shown how developments particularly in the mining and tourist activities may change emissions between 2012 and 2025. While exhaustion coal reserves and thereby abandonment of Norwegian mining activities at Svalbard will bring CO{sub 2} emissions down below 2007 levels, a potential doubling of the tourist related activities will cause emissions to increase significantly (25%). Some measures and mitigation options are discussed. Local electric power production and marine transport activities (tourist cruises and coal shipping) have been identified as predominant emission sources. Thus, for regulation purposes aiming at short-term effects, these major emission sources should be targeted.}
place = {Norway}
year = {2010}
month = {Jul}
}
title = {Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard}
author = {Vestreng, Vigdis, Kallenborn, Roland, and Oekstad, Elin}
abstractNote = {The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant literature. Marine transportation contributes substantially (90%) to emissions of particulate matter (BC, OC) and NO{sub x} in 2007, and is the second largest source of CO{sub 2} (40%). Energy production is the largest source of CO{sub 2} (50%) and SO{sub 2} (90%), while nearly all methane is released in relation to coal mining. The high contribution of climate influencing emissions from cruise traffic is one of the main findings in this study. 20% of the total CO{sub 2} emissions in 2007 and 40% of NO{sub x} and particulate matter originates from cruise ships. Local emissions of BC contributes significantly (20%) to the total deposition at Svalbard. Black carbon is important for global warming both as a compound that heats the atmosphere, and as a contributor to accelerated melting when deposited on snow and ice. Preventing snow and ice melting at Svalbard and in the rest of the Arctic region is a key factor to ensure a sustainable future. A qualitative uncertainty analysis has been performed. The results indicate that the data quality is best for recent years. A key uncertainty is related to the lack of reliable measurements and consumption figures from the coal fired power plant in Barentsburg. Measurements of emissions related to marine transport and the diesel based power production in Svea would also be beneficial to raise the confidence in emission estimates further. According to our results, a steep increase in emissions of climate related compounds both in the short- and in the long-term can be expected for the coming years if steps are not taken in order to reduce the emissions. Emissions of climate influencing pollutants will continue to grow by about 30% towards 2012 even if the current plans to reduce the Norwegian coal production to half the 2007 level are realized. The emission increase is caused by the assumed growth in activities related mainly to tourism and research. In the long-term, it is shown how developments particularly in the mining and tourist activities may change emissions between 2012 and 2025. While exhaustion coal reserves and thereby abandonment of Norwegian mining activities at Svalbard will bring CO{sub 2} emissions down below 2007 levels, a potential doubling of the tourist related activities will cause emissions to increase significantly (25%). Some measures and mitigation options are discussed. Local electric power production and marine transport activities (tourist cruises and coal shipping) have been identified as predominant emission sources. Thus, for regulation purposes aiming at short-term effects, these major emission sources should be targeted.}
place = {Norway}
year = {2010}
month = {Jul}
}