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Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches

Technical Report:

Abstract

Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of 'peak oil' cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable  More>>
Publication Date:
May 15, 2010
Product Type:
Technical Report
Report Number:
NEI-SE-889
Resource Relation:
Other Information: TH: Licentiate thesis (FL); 89 refs., 20 figs., 3 tabs.
Subject:
02 PETROLEUM; EXPLORATION; PETROLEUM DEPOSITS; RESOURCE DEPLETION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OSTI ID:
1004735
Research Organizations:
Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Global Energy Systems, Dept. for Physics and Astronomy
Country of Origin:
Sweden
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
TRN: SE1108001
Availability:
Available from: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Jakobsson_Lic_Thesis.pdf
Submitting Site:
SWDN
Size:
74 p. pages
Announcement Date:
Feb 14, 2011

Technical Report:

Citation Formats

Jakobsson, Kristofer. Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches. Sweden: N. p., 2010. Web.
Jakobsson, Kristofer. Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches. Sweden.
Jakobsson, Kristofer. 2010. "Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches." Sweden.
@misc{etde_1004735,
title = {Modeling Oil Exploration and Production: Resource-Constrained and Agent-Based Approaches}
author = {Jakobsson, Kristofer}
abstractNote = {Energy is essential to the functioning of society, and oil is the single largest commercial energy source. Some analysts have concluded that the peak in oil production is soon about to happen on the global scale, while others disagree. Such incompatible views can persist because the issue of 'peak oil' cuts through the established scientific disciplines. The question is: what characterizes the modeling approaches that are available today, and how can they be further developed to improve a trans-disciplinary understanding of oil depletion? The objective of this thesis is to present long-term scenarios of oil production (Paper I) using a resource-constrained model; and an agent-based model of the oil exploration process (Paper II). It is also an objective to assess the strengths, limitations, and future development potentials of resource-constrained modeling, analytical economic modeling, and agent-based modeling. Resource-constrained models are only suitable when the time frame is measured in decades, but they can give a rough indication of which production scenarios are reasonable given the size of the resource. However, the models are comprehensible, transparent and the only feasible long-term forecasting tools at present. It is certainly possible to distinguish between reasonable scenarios, based on historically observed parameter values, and unreasonable scenarios with parameter values obtained through flawed analogy. The economic subfield of optimal depletion theory is founded on the notion of rational economic agents, and there is a causal relation between decisions made at the micro-level and the macro-result. In terms of future improvements, however, the analytical form considerably restricts the versatility of the approach. Agent-based modeling makes it feasible to combine economically motivated agents with a physical environment. An example relating to oil exploration is given in Paper II, where it is shown that the exploratory activities of individual agents can yield a U-shaped exploration cost path. Agent-based modeling appears to have significant potential for future development, but it is still unclear whether it will be the most useful in policy evaluation or more generalized systems research}
place = {Sweden}
year = {2010}
month = {May}
}