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Energy scenarios for Denmark and Europe

Technical Report:

Abstract

The EU scenario shows that if the world is to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of GHGs at 550 ppm CO{sub 2}eq or less, the European countries will have to reduce their GHG emissions by at least 40% by 2050. However, this is only possible if we include all global mitigation options, without taking into account the fact that the need for development means that some parts of the world, for example Africa, may need to delay their entry to the GHG reduction process. Once we take into account late entry for some regions, the EU countries will have to cut their emissions by much more than 40% even to meet the 550 ppm CO{sub 2}eq target. For the 450 ppm CO{sub 2}eq scenario, the EU would probably have to reduce GHG emissions by 80-95% by 2050. The extreme difficulty of meeting the 450 ppm CO{sub 2}eq target is underlined by the fact that only a few modelling groups have been able to produce global energy model scenarios keeping within this target. As stated above, the version of the TIAM-World model used in the present analyses was primarily developed for the energy sector, and cannot solve the need for stabilisation at  More>>
Authors:
Karlsson, K; Balyk, O; Morthorst, P E; [1]  Labriet, M [2] 
  1. Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)
  2. ENERIS (Spain)
Publication Date:
Nov 15, 2010
Product Type:
Technical Report
Report Number:
RISO-R-1729(EN)
Resource Relation:
Other Information: Risoe energy report 9. Non-fossil energy technologies in 2050 and beyond| Larsen, Hans; Soenderberg Petersen, L. (eds.)| 96 p.; 118 refs., 44 figs., 10 tabs.
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; REVIEWS; DENMARK; EUROPE; FORECASTING; SUPPLY AND DEMAND; ENERGY SUPPLIES; RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES; GREENHOUSE GASES; MITIGATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS
OSTI ID:
1001407
Research Organizations:
Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde (Denmark)
Country of Origin:
Denmark
Language:
English
Other Identifying Numbers:
Other: Rel-TRN: DK1102002; ISBN 978-87-550-3812-7; ISBN 978-87-550-3813-4 (internet); TRN: DK1101007
Availability:
Available as part of the following larger document: www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1001405-iiyhK2/; Also available at http://www.risoe.dtu.dk/rispubl/reports/ris-r-1729.pdf
Submitting Site:
DK
Size:
15-21 pages
Announcement Date:
Jan 20, 2011

Technical Report:

Citation Formats

Karlsson, K, Balyk, O, Morthorst, P E, and Labriet, M. Energy scenarios for Denmark and Europe. Denmark: N. p., 2010. Web.
Karlsson, K, Balyk, O, Morthorst, P E, & Labriet, M. Energy scenarios for Denmark and Europe. Denmark.
Karlsson, K, Balyk, O, Morthorst, P E, and Labriet, M. 2010. "Energy scenarios for Denmark and Europe." Denmark.
@misc{etde_1001407,
title = {Energy scenarios for Denmark and Europe}
author = {Karlsson, K, Balyk, O, Morthorst, P E, and Labriet, M}
abstractNote = {The EU scenario shows that if the world is to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of GHGs at 550 ppm CO{sub 2}eq or less, the European countries will have to reduce their GHG emissions by at least 40% by 2050. However, this is only possible if we include all global mitigation options, without taking into account the fact that the need for development means that some parts of the world, for example Africa, may need to delay their entry to the GHG reduction process. Once we take into account late entry for some regions, the EU countries will have to cut their emissions by much more than 40% even to meet the 550 ppm CO{sub 2}eq target. For the 450 ppm CO{sub 2}eq scenario, the EU would probably have to reduce GHG emissions by 80-95% by 2050. The extreme difficulty of meeting the 450 ppm CO{sub 2}eq target is underlined by the fact that only a few modelling groups have been able to produce global energy model scenarios keeping within this target. As stated above, the version of the TIAM-World model used in the present analyses was primarily developed for the energy sector, and cannot solve the need for stabilisation at 450 ppm CO{sub 2}eq without adding more mitigation options. A lot more work therefore needs to be done to identify new mitigation options which can be added to the models if they are to help guide us towards the 450 ppm CO{sub 2}eq target. On the other hand, the Danish case shows that some countries will be able to phase out fossil fuels rapidly enough to stabilise GHG levels - if only this could be done on a global scale - at 450 ppm CO{sub 2}eq. Especially because of its wind resources, Denmark can phase out fossil fuels from electricity and heat production before 2040. Removing fossil fuels from the transport sector will probably take a further 10 years. The increased costs of such a transformation in the electricity and heat sector will range from zero to just a few per cent, but the extra cost in the transport sector is very uncertain. Exogenous assumptions about the prices of fuels, CO{sub 2} and technology have big impacts on the energy system. Despite this, sensitivity studies demonstrate the robustness of one of the most important conclusions: That a 'fossil-free' Denmark will incur low or even no extra socio-economic costs. (Author)}
place = {Denmark}
year = {2010}
month = {Nov}
}