Method and apparatus for constructing informative outcomes to guide multi-policy decision making

Olson, Edwin; Mehta, Dhanvin H.; Ferrer, Gonzalo

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Title: Method and apparatus for constructing informative outcomes to guide multi-policy decision making

Abstract

In Multi-Policy Decision-Making (MPDM), many computationally-expensive forward simulations are performed in order to predict the performance of a set of candidate policies. In risk-aware formulations of MPDM, only the worst outcomes affect the decision making process, and efficiently finding these influential outcomes becomes the core challenge. Recently, stochastic gradient optimization algorithms, using a heuristic function, were shown to be significantly superior to random sampling. In this disclosure, it was shown that accurate gradients can be computed-even through a complex forward simulation—using approaches similar to those in dep networks. The proposed approach finds influential outcomes more reliably, and is faster than earlier methods, allowing one to evaluate more policies while simultaneously eliminating the need to design an easily-differentiable heuristic function.

Inventors:: Olson, Edwin; Mehta, Dhanvin H.; Ferrer, Gonzalo

Issue Date:: 2023-06-20

Research Org.:: Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)

OSTI Identifier:: 1998514

Patent Number(s):: 11681896

Application Number:: 17/371,221

Assignee:: The Regents of the University of Michigan (Ann Arbor, MI)

DOE Contract Number:: D13AP00059

Resource Type:: Patent

Resource Relation:: Patent File Date: 07/09/2021

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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                    Olson, Edwin, Mehta, Dhanvin H., and Ferrer, Gonzalo. Method and apparatus for constructing informative outcomes to guide multi-policy decision making.  United States: N. p., 2023. 
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                    Olson, Edwin, Mehta, Dhanvin H., & Ferrer, Gonzalo. Method and apparatus for constructing informative outcomes to guide multi-policy decision making.  United States.

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                    Olson, Edwin, Mehta, Dhanvin H., and Ferrer, Gonzalo. Tue .  
        "Method and apparatus for constructing informative outcomes to guide multi-policy decision making".  United States.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1998514.

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@article{osti_1998514,

  title        = {Method and apparatus for constructing informative outcomes to guide multi-policy decision making},

  author       = {Olson, Edwin and Mehta, Dhanvin H. and Ferrer, Gonzalo},

  abstractNote = {In Multi-Policy Decision-Making (MPDM), many computationally-expensive forward simulations are performed in order to predict the performance of a set of candidate policies. In risk-aware formulations of MPDM, only the worst outcomes affect the decision making process, and efficiently finding these influential outcomes becomes the core challenge. Recently, stochastic gradient optimization algorithms, using a heuristic function, were shown to be significantly superior to random sampling. In this disclosure, it was shown that accurate gradients can be computed-even through a complex forward simulation—using approaches similar to those in dep networks. The proposed approach finds influential outcomes more reliably, and is faster than earlier methods, allowing one to evaluate more policies while simultaneously eliminating the need to design an easily-differentiable heuristic function.},

  doi          = {},

  journal      = {},
number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2023},

  month        = {6}

}

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