Title: Induced Markov chain for wind farm generation forecasting

Abstract

Systems and methods for forecasting power generation in a wind farm are disclosed. The systems and methods utilize an induced Markov chain model to generate a forecast of power generation of the wind farm. The forecast is at least one of a point forecast or a distributional forecast. Additionally, the systems and methods modify at least one of: (i) a generation of electricity at a power plant coupled to a common power grid as the wind farm; or (ii) a distribution of electricity in the common power grid based on the forecast of power generation of the wind farm. In an exemplary approach, utilizing the induced Markov chain model to generate the forecast may include determining a series of time adjacent power output measurements based on historical wind power measurements and calculating a time series of difference values based on the series of time adjacent power output measurements.

Inventors:

Werho, Trevor N.; Zhang, Junshan; Vittal, Vijay

Issue Date:

2020-10-06

Research Org.:

Arizona State Univ., Scottsdale, AZ (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1771482

Patent Number(s):

10796252

Application Number:

16/555,490

Assignee:

Arizona Board of Regents on Behalf of the University of Arizona (Scottsdale, AZ)

Patent Classifications (CPCs):

H - ELECTRICITY H02 - GENERATION H02J - CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06N - COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS

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H - ELECTRICITY H02 - GENERATION H02J - CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER

H02J3/38 - Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
H02J2300/28 - The renewable source being wind energy
H02J3/386 - {Wind energy

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06N - COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS

G06N20/10 - using kernel methods, e.g. support vector machines [SVM]

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06Q - DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES

G06Q50/06 - Electricity, gas or water supply

G - PHYSICS G01 - MEASURING G01W - METEOROLOGY

G01W1/10 - Devices for predicting weather conditions

H - ELECTRICITY H02 - GENERATION H02J - CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER

H02J2203/20 - Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06N - COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS

G06N7/005 - {Probabilistic networks}

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06Q - DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES

G06Q10/04 - Forecasting or optimisation, e.g. linear programming, "travelling salesman problem" or "cutting stock problem" {

H - ELECTRICITY H02 - GENERATION H02J - CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER

H02J3/381 - {Dispersed generators}
H02J3/004 - {Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation}

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06Q - DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES

G06Q30/0283 - {Price estimation or determination}

Y - NEW / CROSS SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES Y04 - INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS Y04S - SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS

Y04S50/14 - Marketing, i.e. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards
Y04S10/50 - Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Y - NEW / CROSS SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES Y02 - TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE Y02E - REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION

Y02E10/76 - Power conversion electric or electronic aspects

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DOE Contract Number:  

AR0000696; HDTRA1-13-1-0029

Resource Type:

Patent

Resource Relation:

Patent File Date: 08/29/2019

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English