Title: Real-time forecasting of electricity demand in a streams-based architecture with applications

Abstract

A streams platform is used. Multiple streams of electricity usage data are received, each from an electrical meter providing periodic updates to electrical usage for devices connected to the electrical meter. Weather information is received corresponding to locations where the electrical meters are. Real-time predictive modeling of electricity demand is performed based on the received multiple streams of electricity usage data and the received weather information, at least by performing: updating a state space model for electrical load curves using the usage data from the streams and the weather, wherein the updating uses current load observations for the multiple streams for a current time period; and creating forecast(s) for the electricity demand. The forecast(s) of the electricity demand are output. Appliance-level predictions may be made and used, and substitution effects and load management functions may be performed.

Inventors:

Ghosh, Soumyadip; Hosking, Jonathan R.; Natarajan, Ramesh; Subramanian, Shivaram; Zhang, Xiaoxuan

Issue Date:

2019-05-07

Research Org.:

International Business Machines Corp., Armonk, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1568307

Patent Number(s):

10282795

Application Number:

15/189,173

Assignee:

International Business Machines Corporation (Armonk, NY)

Patent Classifications (CPCs):

G - PHYSICS G05 - CONTROLLING G05B - CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06Q - DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES

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G - PHYSICS G05 - CONTROLLING G05B - CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL

G05B15/02 - electric

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06Q - DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES

G06Q50/06 - Electricity, gas or water supply
G06Q10/04 - Forecasting or optimisation, e.g. linear programming, "travelling salesman problem" or "cutting stock problem" {

G - PHYSICS G05 - CONTROLLING G05B - CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL

G05B2219/2639 - Energy management, use maximum of cheap power, keep peak load low

Y - NEW / CROSS SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES Y04 - INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS Y04S - SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS

Y04S10/50 - Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

G - PHYSICS G06 - COMPUTING G06Q - DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES

G06Q10/0631 - {Resource planning, allocation or scheduling for a business operation}

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DOE Contract Number:  

OE0000190

Resource Type:

Patent

Resource Relation:

Patent File Date: 06/22/2016

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English