# Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris

## Abstract

A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.

- Inventors:

- Issue Date:

- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE

- OSTI Identifier:
- 1346068

- Patent Number(s):
- 9,586,704

- Application Number:
- 13/875,580

- Assignee:
- Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC

- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344

- Resource Type:
- Patent

- Resource Relation:
- Patent File Date: 2013 May 02

- Country of Publication:
- United States

- Language:
- English

- Subject:
- 79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

### Citation Formats

```
Nikolaev, Sergei, De Vries, Willem H., Henderson, John R., Horsley, Matthew A., Jiang, Ming, Levatin, Joanne L., Olivier, Scot S., Pertica, Alexander J., Phillion, Donald W., and Springer, Harry K.
```*Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris*. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web.

```
Nikolaev, Sergei, De Vries, Willem H., Henderson, John R., Horsley, Matthew A., Jiang, Ming, Levatin, Joanne L., Olivier, Scot S., Pertica, Alexander J., Phillion, Donald W., & Springer, Harry K.
```*Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris*. United States.

```
Nikolaev, Sergei, De Vries, Willem H., Henderson, John R., Horsley, Matthew A., Jiang, Ming, Levatin, Joanne L., Olivier, Scot S., Pertica, Alexander J., Phillion, Donald W., and Springer, Harry K. Tue .
"Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1346068.
```

```
@article{osti_1346068,
```

title = {Modeling the long-term evolution of space debris},

author = {Nikolaev, Sergei and De Vries, Willem H. and Henderson, John R. and Horsley, Matthew A. and Jiang, Ming and Levatin, Joanne L. and Olivier, Scot S. and Pertica, Alexander J. and Phillion, Donald W. and Springer, Harry K.},

abstractNote = {A space object modeling system that models the evolution of space debris is provided. The modeling system simulates interaction of space objects at simulation times throughout a simulation period. The modeling system includes a propagator that calculates the position of each object at each simulation time based on orbital parameters. The modeling system also includes a collision detector that, for each pair of objects at each simulation time, performs a collision analysis. When the distance between objects satisfies a conjunction criterion, the modeling system calculates a local minimum distance between the pair of objects based on a curve fitting to identify a time of closest approach at the simulation times and calculating the position of the objects at the identified time. When the local minimum distance satisfies a collision criterion, the modeling system models the debris created by the collision of the pair of objects.},

doi = {},

journal = {},

number = ,

volume = ,

place = {United States},

year = {2017},

month = {3}

}

Works referenced in this record:

##
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patent, May 2013

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- US Patent Document 8,437,992

##
System and method for distributed simulation in which different simulation servers simulate different regions of a simulation space

patent, December 2013

- Rosedale, Philip E.; Ondrejka, Cory R.; Meadows, Andrew L.
- US Patent Document 8,612,196

##
Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt

journal, January 1978

- Kessler, Donald J.; Cour-Palais, Burton G.
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