Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive

Harp, Dylan; Atchley, Adam; Painter, Scott; Coon, Ethan; Wilson, Cathy; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Rowland, Joel

doi:10.5440/1236647

Title: Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive

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Abstract

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication available at doi:10.5194/tc-10-341-2016. This dataset contains an ensemble of thermal-hydro soil parameters including porosity, thermal conductivity, thermal conductivity shape parameters, and residual saturation of peat and mineral soil. The ensemble was generated using a Null-Space Monte Carlo analysis of parameter uncertainty based on a calibration to soil temperatures collected at the Barrow Environmental Observatory site by the NGEE team. The micro-topography of ice wedge polygons present at the site is included in the analysis using three 1D column models to represent polygon center, rim and trough features. The Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) was used in the calibration to model multiphase thermal and hydrological processes in the subsurface. doi:10.5440/1236647; https://doi.org/10.5440/1236647

Authors:: Harp, Dylan; Atchley, Adam; Painter, Scott; Coon, Ethan; Wilson, Cathy; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Rowland, Joel

Publication Date:: Thu Feb 11 00:00:00 EST 2016

Other Number(s):: NGA078
ngee_79D175C30603D38DAE2A2635444E585F2016_04_19_110814628

DOE Contract Number:: DE-AC05-00OR22725

Research Org.:: Next Generation Ecosystems Experiment - Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (US); NGEE Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Collaborations:: ORNL

Subject:: 54 Environmental Sciences

Keywords:: Active layer thickness; Permafrost projections; Soil property uncertainty; Calibration-constrained analysis; Utqiagvik, Alaska; North Slope, Alaska; Barrow, Alaska

OSTI Identifier:: 1236647

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5440/1236647

Citation Formats


                    Harp, Dylan, Atchley, Adam, Painter, Scott, Coon, Ethan, Wilson, Cathy, Romanovsky, Vladimir, and Rowland, Joel. Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive.  United States: N. p., 2016. 
        Web.  doi:10.5440/1236647.

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                    Harp, Dylan, Atchley, Adam, Painter, Scott, Coon, Ethan, Wilson, Cathy, Romanovsky, Vladimir, & Rowland, Joel. Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive.  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.5440/1236647

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                    Harp, Dylan, Atchley, Adam, Painter, Scott, Coon, Ethan, Wilson, Cathy, Romanovsky, Vladimir, and Rowland, Joel. 2016.  
"Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive".  United States.  doi:https://doi.org/10.5440/1236647.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1236647. Pub date:Thu Feb 11 00:00:00 EST 2016

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@article{osti_1236647,

  title        = {Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive},

  author       = {Harp, Dylan and Atchley, Adam and Painter, Scott and Coon, Ethan and Wilson, Cathy and Romanovsky, Vladimir and Rowland, Joel},

  abstractNote = {This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication available at doi:10.5194/tc-10-341-2016. This dataset contains an ensemble of thermal-hydro soil parameters including porosity, thermal conductivity, thermal conductivity shape parameters, and residual saturation of peat and mineral soil. The ensemble was generated using a Null-Space Monte Carlo analysis of parameter uncertainty based on a calibration to soil temperatures collected at the Barrow Environmental Observatory site by the NGEE team. The micro-topography of ice wedge polygons present at the site is included in the analysis using three 1D column models to represent polygon center, rim and trough features. The Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) was used in the calibration to model multiphase thermal and hydrological processes in the subsurface. doi:10.5440/1236647; https://doi.org/10.5440/1236647},

  doi          = {10.5440/1236647},

  journal      = {},

  number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Thu Feb 11 00:00:00 EST 2016},

  month        = {Thu Feb 11 00:00:00 EST 2016}

}

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5440/1236647

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