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Title: Effect of soil property uncertainties on permafrost thaw projections: a calibration-constrained analysis: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication available at doi:10.5194/tc-10-341-2016. This dataset contains an ensemble of thermal-hydro soil parameters including porosity, thermal conductivity, thermal conductivity shape parameters, and residual saturation of peat and mineral soil. The ensemble was generated using a Null-Space Monte Carlo analysis of parameter uncertainty based on a calibration to soil temperatures collected at the Barrow Environmental Observatory site by the NGEE team. The micro-topography of ice wedge polygons present at the site is included in the analysis using three 1D column models to represent polygon center, rim and trough features. The Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) was used in the calibration to model multiphase thermal and hydrological processes in the subsurface.
Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
DOE Contract Number:
DE-AC05-00OR22725
Product Type:
Dataset
Research Org(s):
Next Generation Ecosystems Experiment - Arctic, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (US)
Collaborations:
ORNL
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Subject:
54 Environmental Sciences; ngee; ngee arctic; soil property uncertainty; permafrost projections; active layer thickness
OSTI Identifier:
1236647
No associated Projects found.
No associated Collections found.
  1. This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication currently in review [4/2016]. The Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) was used to simulate thermal hydrological conditions across varied environmental conditions for an ensemble of 1D models of Arctic permafrost. The thickness of organic soilmore » is varied from 2 to 40cm, snow depth is varied from approximately 0 to 1.2 meters, water table depth was varied from -51cm below the soil surface to 31 cm above the soil surface. A total of 15,960 ensemble members are included. Data produced includes the third and fourth simulation year: active layer thickness, time of deepest thaw depth, temperature of the unfrozen soil, and unfrozen liquid saturation, for each ensemble member. Input files used to run the ensemble are also included. « less
  2. This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic discussion paper and available at http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2016-29/. Vast carbon stocks stored in permafrost soils of Arctic tundra are under risk of release to atmosphere under warming climate. Ice--wedge polygons in the low-gradient polygonal tundra create amore » complex mosaic of microtopographic features. The microtopography plays a critical role in regulating the fine scale variability in thermal and hydrological regimes in the polygonal tundra landscape underlain by continuous permafrost. Modeling of thermal regimes of this sensitive ecosystem is essential for understanding the landscape behaviour under current as well as changing climate. We present here an end-to-end effort for high resolution numerical modeling of thermal hydrology at real-world field sites, utilizing the best available data to characterize and parameterize the models. We develop approaches to model the thermal hydrology of polygonal tundra and apply them at four study sites at Barrow, Alaska spanning across low to transitional to high-centered polygon and representative of broad polygonal tundra landscape. A multi--phase subsurface thermal hydrology model (PFLOTRAN) was developed and applied to study the thermal regimes at four sites. Using high resolution LiDAR DEM, microtopographic features of the landscape were characterized and represented in the high resolution model mesh. Best available soil data from field observations and literature was utilized to represent the complex heterogeneous subsurface in the numerical model. This data collection provides the complete set of input files, forcing data sets and computational meshes for simulations using PFLOTRAN for four sites at Barrow Environmental Observatory. It also document the complete computational workflow for this modeling study to allow verification, reproducibility and follow up studies. Vast carbon stocks stored in permafrost soils of Arctic tundra are under risk of release to atmosphere under warming climate. Ice--wedge polygons in the low-gradient polygonal tundra create a complex mosaic of microtopographic features. The microtopography plays a critical role in regulating the fine scale variability in thermal and hydrological regimes in the polygonal tundra landscape underlain by continuous permafrost. Modeling of thermal regimes of this sensitive ecosystem is essential for understanding the landscape behaviour under current as well as changing climate. We present here an end-to-end effort for high resolution numerical modeling of thermal hydrology at real-world field sites, utilizing the best available data to characterize and parameterize the models. We develop approaches to model the thermal hydrology of polygonal tundra and apply them at four study sites at Barrow, Alaska spanning across low to transitional to high-centered polygon and representative of broad polygonal tundra landscape. A multi--phase subsurface thermal hydrology model (PFLOTRAN) was developed and applied to study the thermal regimes at four sites. Using high resolution LiDAR DEM, microtopographic features of the landscape were characterized and represented in the high resolution model mesh. Best available soil data from field observations and literature was utilized to represent the complex hetogeneous subsurface in the numerical model. This data collection provides the complete set of input files, forcing data sets and computational meshes for simulations using PFLOTRAN for four sites at Barrow Environmental Observatory. It also document the complete computational workflow for this modeling study to allow verification, reproducibility and follow up studies. « less
  3. This dataset reports measurements of plant available nutrients made using Plant Root Simulator (PRS) probes (Western Ag Innovations Inc.) during 2012 and 2013 at the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) Arctic field site near Barrow, Alaska. In 2012, Ca, Mg, K, P, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn,more » B, S, Pb, Al, Cd, NO3-N and NH4-N availability were measured during spring, summer and winter from probes installed in the centers, edges and troughs of four polygons in each of four areas of contrasting moisture regime and polygon type (Areas A, B, C, and D of Intensive Site 1). In 2013, probes were installed in centers, edges and troughs of four polygons in each of two areas (A and B, with low-centered and high-centered polygons respectively) at two-week intervals and at 3 soil depths to capture fine-scale seasonal dynamics of NO3-N and NH4-N. PRS probes are ion exchange resin membranes held in plastic supports that are inserted into soil to measure ion supply in situ. The anion and cation exchange with the membrane is intended to mimic plant uptake and thus provide a relevant measure of soil nutrient bioavailability. Measurements are made per area of probe membrane and cannot be converted to concentrations or related to soil volume « less
  4. This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic discussion paper under review and available at doi:10.5194/gmd-9-927-2016. The purpose is to document the simulations to allow verification, reproducibility, and follow-up studies. This dataset contains shell scripts to create the CLM-PFLOTRAN cases, specific input filesmore » for PFLOTRAN and CLM, outputs, and python scripts to make the figures using the outputs in the publication. Through these results, we demonstrate that CLM-PFLOTRAN can approximately reproduce CLM results in selected cases for the Arctic, temperate and tropic sites. In addition, the new framework facilitates mechanistic representations of soil biogeochemistry processes in the land surface model. « less
  5. The in-situ soil moisture and thaw depth measurements provided in this dataset were collected coincident with airborne overflights of L- and P-band SAR instruments at the NGEE Arctic study site near Barrow, on the North Slope, and at the three study sites on the Sewardmore » Peninsula, Alaska. Field measurements and flights were conducted during the summer of 2017 as a collaboration between the NASA ABoVE Project's Airborne SAR Campaign and the NGEE Arctic Project. ABoVE protocols for establishing field measurement plots were followed. « less