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Title: National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns

Abstract

This paper describes a development of national freight demand models for 27 industry sectors covered by the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey. It postulates that the national freight demands are consistent with U.S. business patterns. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that the flow of goods, which make up the national production processes of industries, is coherent with the information described in the 2002 Annual Input-Output Accounts developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model estimation framework hinges largely on the assumption that a relatively simple relationship exists between freight production/consumption and business patterns for each industry defined by the three-digit North American Industry Classification System industry codes (NAICS). The national freight demand model for each selected industry sector consists of two models; a freight generation model and a freight attraction model. Thus, a total of 54 simple regression models were estimated under this study. Preliminary results indicated promising freight generation and freight attraction models. Among all models, only four of them had a R2 value lower than 0.70. With additional modeling efforts, these freight demand models could be enhanced to allow transportation analysts to assess regional economic impacts associated with temporary lost of transportation services on U.S. transportation network infrastructures. Usingmore » such freight demand models and available U.S. business forecasts, future national freight demands could be forecasted within certain degrees of accuracy. These freight demand models could also enable transportation analysts to further disaggregate the CFS state-level origin-destination tables to county or zip code level.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]
  1. ORNL
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Work for Others (WFO)
OSTI Identifier:
993044
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Transportation Research Board 86th Annual Meetings, Washington, DC, USA, 20070121, 20070125
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; USA; CARGO; TRANSPORT; ECONOMICS; STATISTICS; CORRELATIONS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; REGIONAL ANALYSIS; TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS; SUPPLY DISRUPTION; ECONOMIC IMPACT; Freight flow; economic; commodity flow; freight demand

Citation Formats

Chin, Shih-Miao, and Hwang, Ho-Ling. National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns. United States: N. p., 2007. Web.
Chin, Shih-Miao, & Hwang, Ho-Ling. National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns. United States.
Chin, Shih-Miao, and Hwang, Ho-Ling. Mon . "National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns". United States. doi:.
@article{osti_993044,
title = {National Freight Demand Modeling - Bridging the Gap between Freight Flow Statistics and U.S. Economic Patterns},
author = {Chin, Shih-Miao and Hwang, Ho-Ling},
abstractNote = {This paper describes a development of national freight demand models for 27 industry sectors covered by the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey. It postulates that the national freight demands are consistent with U.S. business patterns. Furthermore, the study hypothesizes that the flow of goods, which make up the national production processes of industries, is coherent with the information described in the 2002 Annual Input-Output Accounts developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model estimation framework hinges largely on the assumption that a relatively simple relationship exists between freight production/consumption and business patterns for each industry defined by the three-digit North American Industry Classification System industry codes (NAICS). The national freight demand model for each selected industry sector consists of two models; a freight generation model and a freight attraction model. Thus, a total of 54 simple regression models were estimated under this study. Preliminary results indicated promising freight generation and freight attraction models. Among all models, only four of them had a R2 value lower than 0.70. With additional modeling efforts, these freight demand models could be enhanced to allow transportation analysts to assess regional economic impacts associated with temporary lost of transportation services on U.S. transportation network infrastructures. Using such freight demand models and available U.S. business forecasts, future national freight demands could be forecasted within certain degrees of accuracy. These freight demand models could also enable transportation analysts to further disaggregate the CFS state-level origin-destination tables to county or zip code level.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}

Conference:
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