Insights from EMF Associated Agricultural and Forestry Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Studies
Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) as employed by the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) generally involves a multi-sector appraisal of greenhouse gas emission (GHGE) mitigation alternatives and climate change effects typically at the global level. Such a multi-sector evaluation encompasses potential climate change effects and mitigative actions within the agricultural and forestry (AF) sectors. In comparison with many of the other sectors covered by IAM, the AF sectors may require somewhat different treatment due to their critical dependence upon spatially and temporally varying resource and climatic conditions. In particular, in large countries like the United States, forest production conditions vary dramatically across the landscape. For example, some areas in the southern US present conditions favorable to production of fast growing, heat tolerant pine species, while more northern regions often favor slower-growing hardwood and softwood species. Moreover, some lands are currently not suitable for forest production (e.g., the arid western plains). Similarly, in agriculture, the US has areas where citrus and cotton can be grown and other areas where barley and wheat are more suitable. This diversity across the landscape causes differential GHGE mitigation potential in the face of climatic changes and/or responses to policy or price incentives. It is difficult for a reasonably sized global IAM system to reflect the full range of sub-national geographic AF production possibilities alluded to above. AF response in the face of climate change altered temperature precipitation regimes or mitigation incentives will likely involve region-specific shifts in land use and agricultural/forest production. This chapter addresses AF sectoral responses in climate change mitigation analysis. Specifically, we draw upon US-based studies of AF GHGE mitigation possibilities that incorporate sub-national detail drawing largely on a body of studies done by the authors in association with EMF activities. We discuss characteristics of AF sectoral responses that could be incorporated in future IAM efforts in climate change policy.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 990601
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-45848; KP1702020; TRN: US201020%%450
- Resource Relation:
- Related Information: Human-Induced Climate Change: an Interdisciplinary Assessment, 238-251
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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