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Title: Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model Supporting the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Repository

Abstract

The MultiScale ThermoHydrologic Model (MSTHM) predicts thermal-hydrologic (TH) conditions within emplacement tunnels (drifts) and in the adjoining host rock at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, which is the proposed site for a radioactive waste repository in the U.S. Because these predictions are used in the performance assessment of the Yucca Mountain repository, they must address the influence of variability and uncertainty of the engineered- and natural-system parameters that significantly influence those predictions. Parameter-sensitivity studies show that the MSTHM predictions adequately propagate the influence of parametric variability and uncertainty. Model-validation studies show that the influence of conceptual-model uncertainty on the MSTHM predictions is insignificant compared to that of parametric uncertainty, which is propagated through the MSTHM.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
966224
Report Number(s):
UCRL-PROC-218580
TRN: US0903929
DOE Contract Number:
W-7405-ENG-48
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Presented at: International High-Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference, Las Vegas, NV, United States, Apr 30 - May 04, 2006
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES AND NON-RACIOACTIVE WASTER FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES; LICENSE APPLICATIONS; MANAGEMENT; NEVADA; PERFORMANCE; POSITIONING; RADIOACTIVE WASTES; YUCCA MOUNTAIN

Citation Formats

Buscheck, T A, Sun, Y, and Hao, Y. Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model Supporting the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Repository. United States: N. p., 2006. Web.
Buscheck, T A, Sun, Y, & Hao, Y. Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model Supporting the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Repository. United States.
Buscheck, T A, Sun, Y, and Hao, Y. Tue . "Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model Supporting the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Repository". United States. doi:. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/966224.
@article{osti_966224,
title = {Multiscale Thermohydrologic Model Supporting the License Application for the Yucca Mountain Repository},
author = {Buscheck, T A and Sun, Y and Hao, Y},
abstractNote = {The MultiScale ThermoHydrologic Model (MSTHM) predicts thermal-hydrologic (TH) conditions within emplacement tunnels (drifts) and in the adjoining host rock at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, which is the proposed site for a radioactive waste repository in the U.S. Because these predictions are used in the performance assessment of the Yucca Mountain repository, they must address the influence of variability and uncertainty of the engineered- and natural-system parameters that significantly influence those predictions. Parameter-sensitivity studies show that the MSTHM predictions adequately propagate the influence of parametric variability and uncertainty. Model-validation studies show that the influence of conceptual-model uncertainty on the MSTHM predictions is insignificant compared to that of parametric uncertainty, which is propagated through the MSTHM.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jan 31 00:00:00 EST 2006},
month = {Tue Jan 31 00:00:00 EST 2006}
}

Conference:
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  • The MultiScale ThermoHydrologic Model (MSTHM) predicts thermal-hydrologic (TH) conditions within emplacement tunnels (drifts) and in the adjoining host rock at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, which is the proposed site for a radioactive waste repository in the US. Because these predictions are used in the performance assessment of the Yucca Mountain repository, they must address the influence of variability and uncertainty of the engineered- and natural-system parameters that significantly influence those predictions. Parameter-sensitivity studies show that the MSTHM predictions adequately propagate the influence of parametric variability and uncertainty. Model-validation studies show that the influence of conceptual-model uncertainty on the MSTHM predictions ismore » insignificant compared to that of parametric uncertainty, which is propagated through the MSTHM.« less
  • The MultiScale ThermoHydrologic Model (MSTHM) predicts thermohydrologic (TH) conditions in emplacement drifts and the adjoining host rock throughout the proposed nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The MSTHM is a computationally efficient approach that accounts for TH processes occurring at a scale of a few tens of centimeters around individual waste packages and emplacement drifts, and for heat flow at the multi-kilometer scale at Yucca Mountain. The modeling effort presented here is an early investigation of the repository and is simulated at a lower temperature mode and with a different panel loading than the repository currently being considered for license application.more » We present these recent lower temperature mode MSTHM simulations that address the influence of repository-scale thermal-conductivity heterogeneity and the influence of preclosure operational factors affecting thermal-loading conditions. We can now accommodate a complex repository layout with emplacement drifts lying in non-parallel planes using a superposition process that combines results from multiple mountain-scale submodels. This development, along with other improvements to the MSTHM, enables more rigorous analyses of preclosure operational factors. These improvements include the ability to (1) predict TH conditions on a drift-by-drift basis, (2) represent sequential emplacement of waste packages along the drifts, and (3) incorporate distance- and time-dependent heat-removal efficiency associated with drift ventilation. Alternative approaches to addressing repository-scale thermal-conductivity heterogeneity are investigated. We find that only one of the four MSTHM submodel types needs to incorporate thermal-conductivity heterogeneity. For a particular repository design, we find that the most influential parameters are (1) percolation-flux distribution, (2) thermal-conductivity heterogeneity within the host-rock units, (3) the sequencing of waste-package emplacement, and (4) the duration of the preclosure ventilation period.« less
  • The MultiScale ThermoHydrologic Model (MSTHM) predicts thermohydrologic (TH) conditions in emplacement drifts and the adjoining host rock throughout the proposed nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The MSTHM is a computationally efficient approach that accounts for TH processes occurring at a scale of a few tens of centimeters around individual waste packages and emplacement drifts, and for heat flow at the multi-kilometer scale at Yucca Mountain. We present recent MSTHM simulations that address the influence of repository-scale thermal-conductivity heterogeneity and the influence of preclosure operational factors affecting thermal-loading conditions. We can now accommodate a complex repository layout with emplacement drifts lyingmore » in non-parallel planes using a superposition process that combines results from multiple mountain-scale submodels. This development, along with other improvements to the MSTHM, enables more rigorous analyses of preclosure operational factors. These improvements include the ability to (1) predict TH conditions on a drift-by-drift basis, (2) represent sequential emplacement of waste packages along the drifts, and (3) incorporate distance- and time-dependent beat-removal efficiency associated with drift ventilation. Alternative approaches to addressing repository-scale thermal-conductivity heterogeneity are investigated. We find that only one of the four MSTHM submodel types needs to incorporate thermal-conductivity heterogeneity. For a particular repository design, we find that the most influential parameters are (1) percolation-flux distribution, (2) thermal-conductivity heterogeneity within the host-rock units, (3) the sequencing of waste-package emplacement, and (4) the duration of the preclosure ventilation period.« less
  • Performance assessment and design evaluation require a modeling tool that simultaneously accounts for processes occurring at a scale of a few tens of centimeters around individual waste packages and emplacement drifts, and also on behavior at the scale of the mountain. Many processes and features must be considered, including non-isothermal, multiphase-flow in rock of variable saturation and thermal radiation in open cavities. Also, given the nature of the fractured rock at Yucca Mountain, a dual-permeability approach is needed to represent permeability. A monolithic numerical model with all these features requires too large a computational cost to be an effective simulationmore » tool, one that is used to examine sensitivity to key model assumptions and parameters. We have developed a multi-scale modeling approach that effectively simulates 3D discrete-heat-source, mountain-scale thermohydrologic behavior at Yucca Mountain and captures the natural variability of the site consistent with what we know from site characterization and waste-package-to-waste-package variability in heat output. We describe this approach and present results examining the role of infiltration flux, the most important natural-system parameter with respect to how thermohydrologic behavior influences the performance of the repository.« less