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Title: Monitoring and Evaluation; Statistical Support for Life-cycle Studies, Annual Report 2006.

Abstract

This report summarizes the statistical analysis and consulting activities performed under Contract No. 00025093, Project No. 199105100, funded by Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) during 2006. These efforts are focused on providing real-time predictions of outmigration timing, assessment of life-history performance measures, evaluation of status and trends in recovery, and guidance on the design and analysis of Columbia Basin fish and wildlife studies monitoring and evaluation studies. The overall objective of the project is to provide BPA and the rest of the fisheries community with statistical guidance on design, analysis, and interpretation of monitoring data, which will lead to improved monitoring and evaluation of salmonid mitigation programs in the Columbia/Snake River Basin. This overall goal is being accomplished by making fisheries data readily available for public scrutiny, providing statistical guidance on the design and analyses of studies by hands-on support and written documents, and providing real-time analyses of tagging results during the smolt outmigration for review by decision makers. For over a decade, this project has been providing in-season projections of smolt outmigration timing to assist in spill management. As many as 52 different fish stocks at 10 different hydroprojects are tracked in real-time to predict the 'percent of run tomore » date' and 'date to specific percentile'. The project also conducts added-value analyses of historical tagging data to understand relationships between fish responses, environmental factors, and anthropogenic effects. The statistical analysis of historical tagging data crosses agency lines in order to assimilate information on salmon population dynamics irrespective of origin. The lessons learned from past studies are used to improve the design and analyses of future monitoring and evaluation efforts. Through these efforts, the project attempts to provide the fisheries community with reliable analyses and interpretations of monitoring data to evaluate hydrosystem operations and the recovery of endangered and threatened salmonid stocks.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), Portland, OR (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
963288
Report Number(s):
DOe/BP-00025093-1
TRN: US200917%%502
DOE Contract Number:
25093
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
13 HYDRO ENERGY; BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION; DESIGN; EVALUATION; FISHERIES; LIFE CYCLE; MANAGEMENT; MITIGATION; MONITORING; ORIGIN; PERFORMANCE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RIVERS; SALMON

Citation Formats

Skalski, John. Monitoring and Evaluation; Statistical Support for Life-cycle Studies, Annual Report 2006.. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.2172/963288.
Skalski, John. Monitoring and Evaluation; Statistical Support for Life-cycle Studies, Annual Report 2006.. United States. doi:10.2172/963288.
Skalski, John. Thu . "Monitoring and Evaluation; Statistical Support for Life-cycle Studies, Annual Report 2006.". United States. doi:10.2172/963288. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/963288.
@article{osti_963288,
title = {Monitoring and Evaluation; Statistical Support for Life-cycle Studies, Annual Report 2006.},
author = {Skalski, John},
abstractNote = {This report summarizes the statistical analysis and consulting activities performed under Contract No. 00025093, Project No. 199105100, funded by Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) during 2006. These efforts are focused on providing real-time predictions of outmigration timing, assessment of life-history performance measures, evaluation of status and trends in recovery, and guidance on the design and analysis of Columbia Basin fish and wildlife studies monitoring and evaluation studies. The overall objective of the project is to provide BPA and the rest of the fisheries community with statistical guidance on design, analysis, and interpretation of monitoring data, which will lead to improved monitoring and evaluation of salmonid mitigation programs in the Columbia/Snake River Basin. This overall goal is being accomplished by making fisheries data readily available for public scrutiny, providing statistical guidance on the design and analyses of studies by hands-on support and written documents, and providing real-time analyses of tagging results during the smolt outmigration for review by decision makers. For over a decade, this project has been providing in-season projections of smolt outmigration timing to assist in spill management. As many as 52 different fish stocks at 10 different hydroprojects are tracked in real-time to predict the 'percent of run to date' and 'date to specific percentile'. The project also conducts added-value analyses of historical tagging data to understand relationships between fish responses, environmental factors, and anthropogenic effects. The statistical analysis of historical tagging data crosses agency lines in order to assimilate information on salmon population dynamics irrespective of origin. The lessons learned from past studies are used to improve the design and analyses of future monitoring and evaluation efforts. Through these efforts, the project attempts to provide the fisheries community with reliable analyses and interpretations of monitoring data to evaluate hydrosystem operations and the recovery of endangered and threatened salmonid stocks.},
doi = {10.2172/963288},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Thu Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}

Technical Report:

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  • This report summarizes the statistical analysis and consulting activities performed under Contract No. 00004134, Project No. 199105100 funded by Bonneville Power Administration during 2003. These efforts are focused on providing real-time predictions of outmigration timing, assessment of life-history performance measures, evaluation of status and trends in recovery, and guidance on the design and analysis of Columbia Basin fish and wildlife studies monitoring and evaluation studies. The overall objective of the project is to provide BPA and the rest of the fisheries community with statistical guidance on design, analysis, and interpretation of monitoring data, which will lead to improved monitoring andmore » evaluation of salmonid mitigation programs in the Columbia/Snake River Basin. This overall goal is being accomplished by making fisheries data readily available for public scrutiny, providing statistical guidance on the design and analyses of studies by hands-on support and written documents, and providing real-time analyses of tagging results during the smolt outmigration for review by decision makers. For a decade, this project has been providing in-season projections of smolt outmigration timing to assist in spill management. As many as 50 different fish stocks at 8 different hydroprojects are tracked and real-time to predict the 'percent of run to date' and 'date to specific percentile'. The project also conducts added-value analyses of historical tagging data to understand relationships between fish responses, environmental factors, and anthropogenic effects. The statistical analysis of historical tagging data crosses agency lines in order to assimilate information on salmon population dynamics irrespective of origin. The lessons learned from past studies are used to improve the design and analyses of future monitoring and evaluation efforts. Through these efforts, the project attempts to provide the fisheries community with reliable analyses and interpretations of monitoring data to evaluate hydrosystem operations and the recovery of endangered and threatened salmonid stocks.« less
  • The ongoing mission of this project is the development of statistical tools for analyzing fisheries tagging data in the most precise and appropriate manner possible. This mission also includes providing statistical guidance on the best ways to design large-scale tagging studies. This mission continues because the technologies for conducting fish tagging studies continuously evolve. In just the last decade, fisheries biologists have seen the evolution from freeze-brands and coded wire tags (CWT) to passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, balloon-tags, radiotelemetry, and now, acoustic-tags. With each advance, the technology holds the promise of more detailed and precise information. However, the technologymore » for analyzing and interpreting the data also becomes more complex as the tagging techniques become more sophisticated. The goal of the project is to develop the analytical tools in parallel with the technical advances in tagging studies, so that maximum information can be extracted on a timely basis. Associated with this mission is the transfer of these analytical capabilities to the field investigators to assure consistency and the highest levels of design and analysis throughout the fisheries community. Consequently, this project provides detailed technical assistance on the design and analysis of tagging studies to groups requesting assistance throughout the fisheries community. Ideally, each project and each investigator would invest in the statistical support needed for the successful completion of their study. However, this is an ideal that is rarely if every attained. Furthermore, there is only a small pool of highly trained scientists in this specialized area of tag analysis here in the Northwest. Project 198910700 provides the financial support to sustain this local expertise on the statistical theory of tag analysis at the University of Washington and make it available to the fisheries community. Piecemeal and fragmented support from various agencies and organizations would be incapable of maintaining a center of expertise. The mission of the project is to help assure tagging studies are designed and analyzed from the onset to extract the best available information using state-of-the-art statistical methods. The overarching goals of the project is to assure statistically sound survival studies so that fish managers can focus on the management implications of their findings and not be distracted by concerns whether the studies are statistically reliable or not. Specific goals and objectives of the study include the following: (1) Provide consistent application of statistical methodologies for survival estimation across all salmon life cycle stages to assure comparable performance measures and assessment of results through time, to maximize learning and adaptive management opportunities, and to improve and maintain the ability to responsibly evaluate the success of implemented Columbia River FWP salmonid mitigation programs and identify future mitigation options. (2) Improve analytical capabilities to conduct research on survival processes of wild and hatchery chinook and steelhead during smolt outmigration, to improve monitoring and evaluation capabilities and assist in-season river management to optimize operational and fish passage strategies to maximize survival. (3) Extend statistical support to estimate ocean survival and in-river survival of returning adults. Provide statistical guidance in implementing a river-wide adult PIT-tag detection capability. (4) Develop statistical methods for survival estimation for all potential users and make this information available through peer-reviewed publications, statistical software, and technology transfers to organizations such as NOAA Fisheries, the Fish Passage Center, US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Geological Survey (USGS), US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Public Utility Districts (PUDs), the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB), and other members of the Northwest fisheries community. (5) Provide and maintain statistical software for tag analysis and user support. (6) Provide improvements in statistical theory and software as requested by user groups. These improvements include extending software capabilities to address new research issues, adapting tagging techniques to new study designs, and extending the analysis capabilities to new technologies such as radio-tags and acoustic-tags.« less
  • This report covers one of many topics under the Yakima/Klickitat Fisheries Project's Monitoring and Evaluation Program (YKFPME). The YKFPME is funded under two BPA contracts, one for the Yakama Nation and the other for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (Contract number 22370, Project Number 1995-063-25). A comprehensive summary report for all of the monitoring and evaluation topics will be submitted after all of the topical reports are completed. This approach to reporting enhances the ability of people to get the information they want, enhances timely reporting of results, and provides a condensed synthesis of the whole YKFPME. Themore » current report was completed by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.« less
  • This report covers three of many topics under the Yakima/Klickitat Fisheries Project's Monitoring and Evaluation Program (YKFPME) and was completed by Oncorh Consulting as a contract deliverable to the Yakama Nation and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife. The YKFPME (Project Number 1995-063-25) is funded under two BPA contracts, one for the Yakama Nation (Contract No. 00022449) and the other for the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (Contract No. 22370). A comprehensive summary report for all of the monitoring and evaluation topics will be submitted after all of the topical reports are completed. This approach to reporting enhances themore » ability of people to get the information they want, enhances timely reporting of results, and provides a condensed synthesis of the whole YKFPME.« less
  • Reproductive success in wild- and first generation hatchery-origin spring Chinook males was examined by allowing the fish to compete for spawning opportunities in two sections of an observation stream. Behavioral observations were used to characterize the frequency of aggression and courting activities. Microsatellite DNA from each male and fry collected from the observation stream were used in pedigree analyses to estimate reproductive success. The coefficient of variation in male reproductive success equaled 116 and 86% in the two populations. No differences were detected in reproductive success due to hatchery or wild origin. Nor were any behavioral differences found between hatcherymore » and wild males. Although statistical power was low due to intrinsic variation a great deal of overlap existed in the reproductive success values of hatchery and wild males. Significant disparities existed among the males on their ability to produce offspring. Males achieving high reproductive success mated with numerous females, were socially dominant, aggressive, and tended to stay in localized areas, courting and spawning with females that were adjacent to one another.« less